Large Inflows Research Articles

The Influence of China and India on Smaller Nations in Southeast Asia: A Study of Singapore

The emergence of China and India has profoundly influenced the policies of Southeast Asian countries. For a small country like Singapore, with a uniquely majority ethnic Chinese population in Southeast Asia, the process of engagement with China and India is historically entrenched and multifaceted. Historically, China and India constitute two major immigration streams into Singapore. Since the 1990s, with low total fertility rates, Singapore has viewed both China and India as sources for not only increasing its overall population to maintain its ethnic demographic profile, but also towards sustaining its economic growth. This article will examine the impact of large foreign manpower and migrant inflows from China and India into Singapore. It will argue that while the prevailing population shrinkage and manpower shortages in Singapore have been eased with migrants from China and India, at the same time they have created new socio-political fissures in Singapore’s increasingly diverse population.

The anatomy of the Cayman Islands offshore financial center: Anglo-America, Japan, and the role of hedge funds

ABSTRACTThe Cayman Islands is a key node in contemporary global finance, yet it is severely under-researched. This paper compiles the first ‘anatomy’ of the Cayman offshore financial center (OFC), utilizing all sources of publicly available data about the three main segments: banking, direct investment, and portfolio investment. The analysis is performed both diachronically to see when large inflows occurred and geographically to determine what role certain countries play in different segments. This dissection of the Cayman OFC shows that the United States is the largest counterparty in all segments with Japan playing an important role too. In fact, when excluding long-term Treasuries, Cayman is the largest holder of US securities in the world. Hedge funds are the main factor for this strong Cayman-US link. About 60% of global hedge fund assets are legally domiciled in Cayman – an extraordinary spatial concentration in such a tiny jurisdiction. A novel contribution to the analysis of the Cayman OFC is the introduction of the Anglo-America/Anglosphere approach. This approach provides one plausible explanation for the unparalleled rise of the Cayman OFC by seeing this jurisdiction as one node in an Anglo-American triangle together with the USA and the UK, Cayman's sovereign power.

The effect of foreign direct investment on human capital development in East Asia

ABSTRACTEast Asia has experienced fast economic growth along with large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and accumulated human capital since the 1960s. Economic literature suggests a link between FDI and human capital development via technology transfer. This study employs a panel of sample data from 16 East Asian countries from 1985 to 2010 to examine the effect of inward FDI on human capital accumulation. The results show that an increase in foreign presence is associated with an increase in secondary schooling, yet has a negative impact on tertiary schooling. FDI from OECD countries presents positive effects on both secondary and tertiary schooling in East Asian countries. The findings are robust to different measures of educational attainment and different specifications.

Seasonal Occurrence of Loricate Choanoflagellates in Danish Inner Waters

It is a trend in loricate choanoflagellate research that our knowledge of species diversity is insufficient in terms of understanding annual successional changes at any specific locality, whereas there is a fairly decent coverage worldwide - at least in more coastal realms - in terms of biodiversity within more narrowly defined time windows. To help address this knowledge gap, we have compiled all available loricate choanoflagellate occurrence data from Danish sampling sites covering an overall time span of close to four decades. The close to 100 samples analysed have a good annual coverage and they encompass in total more than 50 species. We demonstrate clear successional trends among well-defined clusters of species. A large contingent of 'non-native' species, which are in a global context largely considered part of the loricate choanoflagellate warm water community, occurred in September 2014 samples from the Baltic Sea entrance, i.e. the Sound between Denmark and Sweden. While the occurrence of these species is likely due to a large inflow of southern Atlantic water, we also discuss whether the findings may instead reflect recent and more permanent climate change-induced alterations to choanoflagellate biodiversity in inner Danish waters.

Breakdown minimization principle versus Wardrop’s equilibria for dynamic traffic assignment and control in traffic and transportation networks: A critical mini-review

Abstract We review physical results of applications of the breakdown minimization (BM) principle versus applications of the classical Wardrop’s equilibria (Wardrop’s user equilibrium (UE) and system optimum (SO)) for dynamic traffic assignment and control in traffic and transportation networks. It is shown that depending on the total network inflow rate there are two different applications of the BM principle: (i) The network throughput maximization approach that maximizes the network throughput ensuring free flow conditions in the network. (ii) The minimization of the network breakdown probability at relatively large network inflow rates. Probabilistic features of the application of the BM principle are studied. We have found that when the application of the BM principle cannot prevent traffic breakdown in the network, nevertheless, a combination of the application of the BM principle with dynamic control of traffic breakdown at network bottlenecks can lead to the dissolution of traffic congestion. We show that applications of the classical Wardrop’s equilibria for dynamic traffic assignment deteriorate basically the traffic system in networks.

Capital Control Liberalization And Monetary Policy In Kenya

Economist have always considered capital as the central element of the process of economic development, the study aimed to establish the effects of capital control liberalization on monetary policy in Kenya. The Economists view that foreign investment benefits developing economies by increasing the availability of capital still holds, based on this view, the capital deficient countries heavily resort to for- eign financing as the primary source to achieve rapid economic growth and through their positive im- pact over productivity and the general economic wellbeing of the host country. Kenyan economy has accumulated a large external debt and are now facing serious debt servicing problems. The growth ex- perience of East Africa has received worldwide attention this is because Africa is seen as a new center for growth and can be an investment destination for other regions. This study is motivated on the as- sumption that this discussions ignored the experiences of developing countries in their early phase of industrialization. In addition there is a lack of proper attention on the analysis of the issue of capital inflows in the context of neo-liberal economic reforms and financial deregulation. Large swings in capital flows into and out of emerging markets can potentially lead to excessive volatility in asset pric- ing and supply of credit in the economy. In order to lessen the impact of capital flows on financial in- stability, a number of studies and policy makers have proposed the use of capital controls. This paper considers the benefit of re-introducing capital controls as a potential instrument of monetary policy in Kenya. This paper reviews the Kenyan experience with large capital inflows over the past 15 years (June 2000-June 2015). The findings revealed that capital inflow had positive effect on monetary policy in Kenya.

A fair distribution of refugees in the European Union

ABSTRACTIn light of the large recent inflow of refugees to the EU and the Commission’s efforts to relocate them, I raise the question of what a fair distribution of refugees between EU countries would look like. More specifically, I consider what concerns such a distributive scheme should be sensitive to. First, I put forward some arguments for why states are obligated to admit refugees and outline how I believe the EU should respond to the refugee crisis. This involves, among other things, resettling a proportion of refugees from countries neighbouring Syria in the EU. Second, I consider how the intake into the EU should be distributed between member states, that is, the shares different countries can be expected to admit. I discuss the relevance of a number of different factors that may be claimed to affect such shares, including population size, GDP, number of refugees admitted so far, unemployment rate, country-specific costs and cultural ‘closeness’. Third, I consider whether the distributive scheme should be restricted to reflect specific states’ responsibility for creating refugees in the first place, levels of racism and xenophobia, and whether other states are required to pick up the slack if some refuse to admit their fair share.

Rule curve for seasonal increasing of water concessions in reservoirs with low regularized discharges

ABSTRACT Regions with high hydrological variability are usually supplied by reservoirs that regularize discharges inter-annually, with low discharge of regularization, seasonally subject to large overflow and evaporation losses in their periods of high water levels. The Brazilian semiarid is one of such regions. This work looks at the possibility of using water that would be evaporated and/or spilled, in regions with such characteristics, to supply demands that would not be otherwise provided by the maximum legally allowed withdrawal discharge. The proposed method was applied to the operation of a large reservoir, located in the semiarid region of Brazil. Through simulation of the water budget and optimization, a rule curve was developed for reservoir operation for achieving the maximum exploitable reservoir withdrawal in rainy periods. The results show that it is possible to use the excess water in periods of large inflows with no damage to water supply during dry periods.

Dynamic Evaluation of Lavage Efficacy in Upper Compartment of the Temporomandibular Joint

The aim of this study was to determine the most efficient temporomandibular joint (TMJ) lavage technique for complete irrigation and removal of synovial fluid. The corresponding total lavage fluid volume needed also was investigated. Three-dimensional TMJ lavage models of the classic double- and single-needle techniques with modified cannula sizes (diameters, 2.4 and 0.8mm) were generated based on a constructed upper compartment model. Models were integrated with 2-phase flow models to predict fractional fluid volume (α value) changes of lavage saline and synovial fluid within the upper compartment of the TMJ. Fluid flow diagrams, velocity vectors, and intra-articular pressure data were collected and compared among the models. Models were validated by clinical synovial fluid concentration analyses, with vitamin B12 used as an internal standard. In all 8 models, lavage fluid initially gathered around the inflow portal, with a stable mixture of synovial and lavage fluids eventually being established in the compartment. Use of the double-needle technique with a large inflow portal resulted in thorough lavage (α= 100%). When the single-needle or Shepard cannula technique was used, some areas within the upper compartment remained devoid of brisk flow. The 2.4-mm inflow model coupled with a 0.8-mm outflow portal resulted in a stably and persistently high intra-articular pressure (>2.7 × 104Pa). A minimum volume of 109mL of lavage fluid was necessary for complete replacement of synovial fluid by saline. When a 2.4-mm inflow portal needle was applied, a lavage rate of 100% was obtained with a minimum lavage volume of 109mL. Using a small inflow portal could lead to inadequate flow, residual synovial fluid, and, ultimately, treatment failure.

Foreign capital and credit expansion in Albanian banking system

This article aims to examine the role of foreign banks in credit expansion in Albania. The financial system in Albania is a bank based financial system. The role of bank credit in the Albanian economy has been significantly increased especially after 2000, when large capital inflows entered in the banking system. The entrance of foreign banks has been influenced by several factors such as profit orientation, privatization process, trade relationships etc. The rapid development of banking system was associated with credit expansion. Therefore the credit growth has been very fast. Has the bank credit expansion been a normal consequence of the fast financial development in Albania? Based on the literature, this article will answer to this question examining the credit growth rates in Albania, after 2000. The data used in this article will be of secondary type, based on the official statistics published by respective institutions.

Are Immigration Inflows Good for Business? The Role of Informality in Developing Countries

This article examines the effects of large inflows of displaced persons (IDPs) resulting from violence on firms' behavior in an economy that contains a large informal sector, as is commonly observed in developing countries. To identify causal effects, we exploit the fact that areas closer to the displaced persons' locations of origin should receive higher immigration inflows. We find that large IDPs induce sizable negative effects on the performance of formal firms. These effects are mainly driven by the positive association between large IDPs and the size of the informal sector.

Productive contribution of local and foreign workers in Singapore manufacturing industries

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of large inflow of foreign workers on the Singapore manufacturing productivity using a panel data at the disaggregated industry level from 1998 to 2008. The results indicate that foreign workers do make productive contribution to manufacturing productivity, but it is much lower as compared to local workers. However, the author observe the declining capital-labour ratio with the increase in the flow of foreign workers. This is expected to have direct impact on the competitiveness of the manufacturing in the export market. Since new technologies are embodied in new capital investment, the declining capital-labour ratio indicates that workers might be producing output with less technology-intensive capital. Conversely, local workers are more productive with high capital investment, indicating that local workers are more skilled and hence there is more complementarity between capital investments and local human capital. Design/methodology/approach – The author implement a panel estimation of disaggregated industry level data of Singapore manufacturing from 1998 to 2008. The author use GMM estimation to control for any endogeneity issues in the estimation. Findings – The results indicate that foreign workers do make productive contribution to manufacturing productivity; but it is much lower as compared to local workers. However; the author observe the declining capital-labour ratio with the increase in the flow of foreign workers. Research limitations/implications – The data for foreign workers at the disaggregated level is not publically available and this is given for this research purpose. The data for foreign workers is limited as it does not have by educational levels. Practical implications – This is the first paper to study impact of foreign workers on manufacturing sector at a disaggregated panel data. There are important policy implications for managing foreign workers and achieving sustainable growth for the Singapore economy. Social implications – The welfare and social impacts of foreign workers on the Singapore economy is discussed. There is also the issue of policy calibration to balance the flow of foreign workers in the Singapore economy. Originality/value – This is the first paper to study impact of foreign workers on manufacturing sector at a disaggregated panel data.

On the number density of ‘direct collapse’ black hole seeds

Supermassive black holes (BHs) of millions solar masses and above reside in the center of most local galaxies, but they also power active galactic nuclei and quasars, detected up to z=7. This observational evidence puts strong constraints on the BH growth and the mass of the first BH seeds. The scenario of "direct collapse" is very appealing as it leads to the formation of large mass BH seeds in the range 10^4-10^6 Msun, which eases explaining how quasars at z=6-7 are powered by BHs with masses >10^9 Msun. Direct collapse, however, appears to be rare, as the conditions required by the scenario are that gas is metal-free, the presence of a strong photo-dissociating Lyman-Werner flux, and large inflows of gas at the center of the halo, sustained for 10-100 Myr. We performed several cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that cover a large range of box sizes and resolutions, thus allowing us to understand the impact of several physical processes on the distribution of direct collapse BHs. We identify halos where direct collapse can happen, and derive the number density of BHs. We also investigate the discrepancies between hydrodynamical simulations, direct or post-processed, and semi-analytical studies. We find that for direct collapse to account for BHs in normal galaxies, the critical Lyman-Werner flux required for direct collapse must be much less than predicted by 3D simulations that include detailed chemical models. However, when supernova feedback is relatively weak, enough direct collapse BHs to explain z=6-7 quasars can be obtained for more realistic values of the critical Lyman Werner flux.

Business Cycle Accounting for Peripheral European Economies

AbstractUsing the Business Cycle Accounting methodology, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the EMU‐periphery economies before and during what was called the sovereign debt crisis. TFP dynamics and the labor wedge explain most of the dynamics before and during the crisis. The bond wedge, corresponding to the risk premium, made a low contribution, moving counter‐cyclically. The capital wedge made a modest contribution to the fall in output during the crisis. Additional evidence links the dynamics of the TFP and the labor wedge with changes in the interest rates and a spike in import prices at the onset of the crisis, corresponding to the general mechanisms of the large capital inflows, in the wake of the introduction of the Euro, followed by sudden stops.

Statistics on Ethnic Diversity in the Land of Papua, Indonesia

AbstractThis paper aims to quantitatively uncover ethnic diversity in multi‐ethnic Land of Papua, an Indonesian region with a large inflow of migration and rising ethno‐based movement, consisting of the Provinces of Papua and West Papua. It produces statistics on ethnic diversity in the Land of Papua, utilizing the tabulation provided by Statistics‐Indonesia based on the raw, 100 per cent, data set of the 2010 population census. It uses three measurements of ethnic diversity. First is ethnic fractionalization index, showing the degree of ethnic heterogeneity. Second is ethnic polarization index, examining the existence of few relatively large ethnic groups of almost the same sizes. Third is a comparison of percentages between migrant and Papuan groups.It finds that the Land of Papua is ethnically very heterogeneous, but not polarized. West Papua is more heterogeneous, but Papua is more polarized. However, seen from a dichotomy between migrants and Papuans, West Papua is very polarized.In‐migration may have increased the probability of having ethnic conflicts in the region but does not change the probability of the intensity of the conflicts. Therefore, ethnic conflicts should be anticipated whenever making programmes that involve in‐migrants or entice people to migrate into the Land of Papua.

Forecasting and prevention of water inrush during the excavation process of a diversion tunnel at the Jinping II Hydropower Station, China.

IntroductionEstimating groundwater inflow into a tunnel before and during the excavation process is an important task to ensure the safety and schedule during the underground construction process.Case descriptionHere we report a case of the forecasting and prevention of water inrush at the Jinping II Hydropower Station diversion tunnel groups during the excavation process. The diversion tunnel groups are located in mountains and valleys, and with high water pressure head. Three forecasting methods are used to predict the total water inflow of the #2 diversion tunnel. Furthermore, based on the accurate estimation of the water inrush around the tunnel working area, a theoretical method is presented to forecast the water inflow at the working area during the excavation process.Discussion and evaluationThe simulated results show that the total water flow is 1586.9, 1309.4 and 2070.2 m3/h using the Qshima method, Kostyakov method and Ochiai method, respectively. The Qshima method is the best one because it most closely matches the monitoring result. According to the huge water inflow into the #2 diversion tunnel, reasonable drainage measures are arranged to prevent the potential disaster of water inrush. The groundwater pressure head can be determined using the water flow velocity from the advancing holes; then, the groundwater pressure head can be used to predict the possible water inflow. The simulated results show that the groundwater pressure head and water inflow re stable and relatively small around the region of the intact rock mass, but there is a sudden change around the fault region with a large water inflow and groundwater pressure head. Different countermeasures are adopted to prevent water inrush disasters during the tunnel excavation process.ConclusionReasonable forecasting the characteristic parameters of water inrush is very useful for the formation of prevention and mitigation schemes during the tunnel excavation process.

Study of a Seepage Channel Formation Using the Combination of Microseismic Monitoring Technique and Numerical Method in Zhangmatun Iron Mine

In 1996, a grout curtain was constructed in the Zhangmatun Iron Mine near Jinan City, China, which is subject to large groundwater inflows, to decrease the water volume rushing into the mine workings. However, water inflow has recently been increasing in the southwestern area through a seepage channel, which has resulted from the failure of the grout curtain. To understand how the seepage channel formed, the microseismic (MS) activities located in this area were studied and a numerical model was supplementarily used to analyze the damage zone. It is found that the seepage channel formation process is significantly affected by the distance between mining activities and the grout curtain. Mining activities periodically approached and retreated from the southwest grout curtain, causing periodically active and inactive microseismicity, and eventually the grout curtain failure. The damage zone in the grout curtain obtained from the numerical analysis coincides with the seepage channel, especially in the area where the distance between the grout curtain and excavation is less than 35 m. Therefore, the combination of MS monitoring and numerical analysis of damage zones can provide us with an overall understanding of the formation process and causes of the seepage channel.

The growing influence of the UNFCCC Secretariat on the clean development mechanism

Using principal–agent theory, we explain the effect of an exogenous increase in financial resources on the autonomy of international bureaucracies. This can be empirically demonstrated at the example of the unexpectedly large inflow of fees for the registration of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects and issuance of emission credits on the political influence of staff in the UNFCCC Secretariat. Through document analysis, interviews and econometric analysis, we show that CDM staff was able to gain substantial influence over concrete policy decisions and even change the structure of relevant decision-making and consultation processes. We also show that this may reinforce rather than reduce the role of special interests expressed via country representatives in the CDM Executive Board. While one might be worried about the erosion of democratic principles at the international level, from a normative perspective, the overall effect is difficult to assess. If the international civil service is competent and committed to the delivery of the global public good, its increasing autonomy and influence may also be socially advantageous.

Hydrological interactions between unregulated river and its floodplain: Field study of the Lužnice River floodplain

This paper presents preliminary results of an assessment of the groundwater – surface water (GW-SW) interaction processes of the Lužnice River floodplain during a selected time period, comprising high and low stream flow. It analyses various events that reflect the spatial and temporal variations in water flows to and from the floodplain. Hydrological exchange processes in the floodplain of a groundwater – surface water system are studied on the basis of an experimental site. The chosen study area comprises a c. 10 km long section of the Lužnice River floodplain, located in the south part of the Czech Republic. Water stages in Lužnice River were continuously measured with limnimeters installed upstream, downstream and in the middle of the floodplain length. Five boreholes were drilled along a transect perpendicular to the river to monitor the water table fluctuation in the floodplain. Water level variations of a wetland pool, located at the floodplain left margin in the transect were also continuously recorded. The results indicate that observed groundwater levels are closely associated with the river flows and the assessed reach was gaining most of the time. Downstream flood wave attenuation was not observed during the period of the highest flows due to the large lateral subsurface inflow contribution.

Structural shifts in aid dependency and fiscal policy in developing countries

ABSTRACTForeign aid is a sizable source of government financing for several developing countries and its allocation matters for the conduct of fiscal policy. This article revisits the fiscal effects of shifts in aid dependency in 59 developing countries from 1960 to 2010. It identifies structural shifts in aid dependency and uses treatment effect methods to assess the fiscal effects of aid. It finds that shifts in aid dependency are frequent and have significant fiscal effects in developing countries. In addition to the traditional evidences of tax and investment displacement and ‘aid illusion,’ we show that upward shifts and downward shifts in aid dependency have asymmetric effects on fiscal accounts in developing countries. Large aid inflows undermine tax capacity and public investment while large reductions in aid inflows tend to keep recipients’ fiscal behaviour intact. Moreover, the tax displacement effect tends to be temporary while the impacts on expenditure items tend to last. Finally, we find that the undesirable fiscal effects of aid are more pronounced in countries with low governance score and low absorptive capacity.