Large External Shocks Research Articles

Ghana

Large external shocks have exacerbated pre-existing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, resulting in a loss of international market access, increasingly constrained domestic financing, and reliance on monetary financing of the government. Decreasing international reserves, Cedi depreciation, rising inflation and plummeting domestic investor confidence eventually triggered an acute crisis. The authorities have taken steps to tackle these deep challenges, including by accelerating fiscal adjustment. The government has also launched a comprehensive debt restructuring to address severe financing constraints and the unsustainable public debt.

Estimating the Business Cycle of Ukraine Under the Conditions of Large External Compound Shocks

Abstract. Introduction. Conventional business cycle estimation methods typically rely on the assumption that the shocks to an economy are normally distributed. However, global social and political instability can result in external shocks that are more severe than purely economic shocks, thus hampering the ability of these estimation methods to separate cyclical behavior from long-run dynamics. Since effective economic policy is dependent upon the ability to make accurate forecasts, an understanding of the properties of business cycle estimation methods in the presence of large shocks in the data is of first order importance. Purpose. The purpose of this article was to compare the ability of various business cycle estimation methods — and in particular detrending filters — to account for large external compound shocks (i.e. those containing both economic and noneconomic components) when extracting the cyclical component of the real GDP series of Ukraine. In view of Ukraine’s policy of European integration, a secondary goal was to investigate the performance of various detrending filters in deriving a measure of business cycle co-movement of Ukraine vis-à-vis the EU that is robust to external compound shocks. Results. Using an unobserved components model with external geopolitical shocks as a benchmark, it was found that the application of the boosted Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Christiano-Fitzgerald filter, and the Hamilton regression filter to the real GDP data of Ukraine produced cyclical components that exhibited spurious dynamics, particularly from 2020 and onward. Conclusions. It was shown that no single business cycle estimation method performed the best in application to the real GDP series of Ukraine. While the unobserved components model relied on extensive researcher-specified assumptions and an ad hoc approach to identifying external compound shocks, the use of data filtering resulted in series that did not accurately reflect cyclical and trend dynamics in Ukraine toward the end of the sample. Thus, there is a practical need to develop new business cycle estimation models that would be able to account for the distorting influence of large external compound shocks.

The Co-Movements of Credit Default Swap Spreads in China

ABSTRACT In this paper, we study systemic risk in China using information from the credit default swap (CDS) data of Chinese firms. We find a large time variation in CDS spreads. More importantly, firms’ CDS spreads co-move with each other and the first three principal components (PCs) explain 94% of the time-series variation in CDS spreads. We further identify a set of economic risk factors that drive the co-movement of CDS spreads. Large external economic shocks shift a significant proportion of the variance explanation power from the factors related to China’s domestic economic condition to foreign trade and money supply. Our results reveal the sources and dynamics of systemic risk in China.

Optimal Monetary Policy under Balance-Sheet Effects on the Non-tradable Sector in a Small Open Economy

The choice of an exchange rate regime is crucial in small open economies (SOEs) with a dollarized financial sector. While the traditional Mundell–Fleming model supports a floating exchange rate, evidence shows that central banks frequently intervene in exchange markets. One of the reasons for these interventions is the consequences of large depreciations that could trigger negative balance-sheet effects. This paper extends the literature about the optimal monetary policy in SOEs, by considering a heterogeneous hedge across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Our findings support a ‘leaning against the wind’ policy as an optimal response to negative external shocks. This result is present even if only one sector of the economy faces credit constraints. We show that the vulnerability of the economy to large negative external shocks depends not only on the overall leverage, but also on the distribution of foreign currency debt across economic sectors.

Does the UK economy grow faster under a Conservative or Labour government?

We use quarterly data from 1955 to 2019 to examine the performance of Conservative and Labour administrations in terms of real GDP growth in the United Kingdom. To account for fiscal lags in the legislation and implementation of new policies by each administration, we explore up to lag 8 in addition to an overlapping technique. Our main finding is that the UK economy has grown with a similar pace under both parties, however Labour governments seem to do better in tackling recessions and achieve a more consistent performance. Labour’s advantage becomes more pronounced if we discount the effect of a large external shock, the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks

We use electoral survey data to examine the impact that two large external shocks had on the development of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the OECD. We find that structural reforms, which led to large negative impacts on particular locations, and immigration reforms, which led to large spatially concentrated increases in skilled migration, both increased voting for NZF in its first years of existence. These shocks led to changes in political attitudes and policy preferences and had persistent effects on voting for NZF even twenty years later. Overall, they play an important role in explaining the rise of populism in NZ. Understanding how these shocks led to the development of NZF is particularly relevant for thinking about how populism has been extending its reach in the 2010s.

Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks

We use electoral survey data to examine the impact that two large external shocks had on the development of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the OECD. We find that structural reforms, which led to large negative impacts on particular locations, and immigration reforms, which led to large spatially concentrated increases in skilled migration, both increased voting for NZF in its first years of existence. These shocks led to changes in political attitudes and policy preferences and had persistent effects on voting for NZF even twenty years later. Overall, they play an important role in explaining the rise of populism in NZ. Understanding how these shocks led to the development of NZF is particularly relevant for thinking about how populism has been extending its reach in the 2010s.

Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks

We use electoral survey data to examine the impact that two large external shocks had on the development of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the OECD. We find that structural reforms, which led to large negative impacts on particular locations, and immigration reforms, which led to large spatially concentrated increases in skilled migration, both increased voting for NZF in its first years of existence. These shocks led to changes in political attitudes and policy preferences and had persistent effects on voting for NZF even twenty years later. Overall, they play an important role in explaining the rise of populism in NZ. Understanding how these shocks led to the development of NZF is particularly relevant for thinking about how populism has been extending its reach in the 2010s.

Monetary Policy and Inflation in June 2020

Despite large scale external shocks seen in February-March 2020, there was no spike in inflation in Russia and at the period-end of June, the annual inflation rate came to merely 3.2%. After a short-term price surge, which was observed in MarchApril 2020, downward pressure on prices was exerted by a weak consumer demand, ruble’s appreciation, as well as decline in inflationary expectations of the population and businesses. In these circumstances the Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 4.5%, i.e. to all-time minimum.

Mongolia

During the three-year EFF which expired at end-May, Mongolia experienced rapid economic growth and was able to make some progress in the reduction of key vulnerabilities. However, with the outbreak of the global pandemic, the outlook has now deteriorated sharply. There are few domestic cases of the virus, but real GDP is expected to contract by 1 percent in 2020 due to a collapse in external demand and the domestic impact of social distancing measures. With still high public debt, net international reserves near zero, and a difficult near-term amortization schedule, Mongolia has limited buffers to withstand a large and sustained external shock.

Growth of Real GDP and Total Factor Productivity in Asia with an Emphasis on Malaysian Growth

This paper estimates growth models for a panel of 15 Asian countries during 40-plus years from the early 1970s to 2014. The focus then shifts to Malaysia for which an annual time-series model is also estimated for the same time period. Both types of models indicate significant influence of human capital either directly on output growth or on growth through total factor productivity. We find that the lower the development level of a country (i.e., a greater income gap), the greater the total factor productivity growth which therefore permits faster income convergence. There is some evidence of interaction between human capital and the income gap as well which leads to an even bigger impact of human capital on total factor productivity growth. The interaction between human capital and openness produces a greater effect on growth in Malaysia based on the time-series model than its effect based on the panel model. Our results suggest that, barring large external shocks, a continued focus on human capital development should help to prevent growth slowdown in Malaysia over the next 15 years.

Colombia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Colombia’s outlook is favorable as continued efforts to advance the structural reforms will foster economic diversification and productivity growth. In 2017, adequate policy management brought Colombia near completion of its adjustment to large external shocks while further advancing inclusive growth. Economic growth moderated as private investment and consumption weakened in line with lower national income. Economic growth is expected to rebound strongly in 2018 and further over the medium-term, led by strengthening investment and exports. The combined impact of the structural tax reform, a brighter outlook for oil prices and the authorities Fourth Generation infrastructure agenda will underpin investment while reducing Colombia’s relatively large infrastructure gap.

Geography, policy, or productivity? Regional trade in five South American countries, 1910–50

AbstractRegional trade in South America since independence has long been much smaller than would be expected if geography were the only constraint on trade. Several potential explanations exist, including low technological and demand complementarities; low productivity; and high natural and policy barriers to trade. Focusing on the latter explanations, policy makers have long advocated a South American/Southern Cone Free Trade Area—proposed as early as 1889. Would reductions in trade costs have been sufficient to raise trade significantly, or was trade low for other reasons? We study bilateral trade between 1910 and 1950, when large external shocks altered global supply and demand. These shocks help us show that intra‐regional trade could have been boosted by reductions in trade costs. Trade among Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Peru could have benefited from more benign trade policies or better infrastructure. Regional trade in textiles, which took off from the 1930s, supports our argument that trade improved when trade costs fell.

A hurricane wind risk and loss assessment of Caribbean agriculture

AbstractHurricanes act as large external shocks potentially causing considerable damage to agriculture in the Caribbean. While a number of studies have estimated their historic economic impact, arguably the wider community and policy makers are more concerned about their future risk and potential losses, since this type of information is useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation strategy and policy. This paper implements a new approach to undertaking a quantitative wind risk and loss assessment of agriculture in Caribbean island economies. The authors construct an expected loss function that uses synthetically generated, and historical, hurricane tracks within a wind field model that takes cropland exposure derived from satellite data into consideration. The results indicate that expected wind losses are potentially large but vary considerably across the region, where the smaller islands are considerably more likely to be negatively impacted. Moreover, we find that the structure of the agricultural sector can be important in terms of vulnerability.

Optimal International Reserves in Lesotho

Literature has addressed the issue of choosing reserves levels in the context of models based on traditional adequacy ratio. Above that, this study employs the model of Jeanne and Rancière (2006), which captured the unique characteristics of a country, and effects of a small and large external shocks portrayed that international reserves in Lesotho are kept at level higher than the optimum level. The results outlined that optimum level of reserves for Lesotho is on average 44 per cent of GDP for a small crisis and 47 per cent of GDP for a larger crisis. Subsequently, this leads to the conclusion that the amount of reserves exceeding the level of backing assets could be managed under a more return-oriented investment strategy in order to minimize the opportunity cost of reserves holding. Since there is evidence of excess funds, the authorities should strengthen the implementation capacity of the annual capital budgets by evolving a forceful and vigorous monitoring and evaluation framework in order to accomplish the National Vision 2020 goals. This will also create an opportunity to allocate resources to the National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP) which provides overall national strategic thrust from 2012 to 2016.

Colombia: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement- Press Release; and Staff Report

This paper focuses on recent economic developments as well as the role of the flexible credit line (FCL) arrangement. Despite a large external shock, Colombia’s economy showed remarkable resilience in 2015. The current account deficit reached a record level in 2015, but reserves remained stable. The banking system and corporate sector remained in good financial health. Growth will be subdued in the near future but is projected to gradually return toward potential. The FCL has served Colombia well. The previous FCL arrangements have been instrumental to cope with heightened external risks in recent years, complementing the authorities’ policy response to economic shocks.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

Summary This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries (LICs). Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. Both the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the index are high. In particular, it explains well the growth crises observed in LICs during the global financial crisis.

HOW IMPORTANT ARE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES – A CASE OF CROATIA

This paper develops a general equilibrium model for the Republic of Croatia to evaluate CGE model use in macroeconomic management and forecasting. Since Croatia is a small open country subject to large external shock and growth constraints efficient macroeconomic management framework is fundamental. The lack of data prevents to follow historic economic variables over a longer period of time, which is why CGE models look as possible solution. CGE models use calibration to solve the problem of missing most macroeconomic variables. After developing the model, we use it to run different scenarios for economic policies using a CGE model for Croatia. Results show that CGE model can be an important instrument for policy makers in running macroeconomic policies for small open countries.

International Reserves in Low Income Countries: Have They Served as Buffers?

This paper provides a historical perspective on the role of international reserves in low-income countries as a cushion against large external shocks over the last three decades - including the current global crisis. The results suggest that international reserves have played a role in buffering external shocks, with the resulting macroeconomic costs varying with the nature of the shock, the economy’s structural characteristics, and the level of reserves.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.