Large Earthquakes In California Research Articles

Are Foreshocks Fore‐Shocks?

AbstractForeshocks are spatially clustered seismic events preceding large earthquakes. Since the dawn of seismology, their occurrence has been identified as a possible mechanism leading to further crustal destabilization, hence, to major failures. However, several cases occurred without any previous anomalous seismic activity, so that the hypothesis of foreshocks as reliable seismic precursors fails to pass statistical tests. Here, we perform an all‐round statistical comparative analysis of seismicity in Southern California to assess whether any differences can be identified between swarms and foreshocks. Our results suggest that extremely variable seismic patterns can forerun mainshocks, even though they tend to be preceded by clusters with more numerous events spread over larger areas than swarms and with a wider range of magnitudes. We provide a physical explanation of such dissimilarity and conclude, despite it, that foreshocks can hardly be reliable short‐term precursors of large earthquakes in California.

Overdue? The future of large earthquakes in California

Overdue? The future of large earthquakes in California

Earthquake Potential in California‐Nevada Implied by Correlation of Strain Rate and Seismicity

AbstractRock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2–3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8–7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

Abstract. It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.

Forecasting rupture dimension using the pattern informatics technique

The Pattern Informatics (PI) technique [Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S., Klein, W., 2002. Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett., 60, 481–487] is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space–time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we use a modification of the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes in California in an attempt to objectively quantify the rupture zones of these upcoming events. We show that this method can be used to forecast the size and magnitude of future earthquakes.

Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake

A large earthquake preparation is often manifested in correlation of seismicity in an area whose characteristic dimension greatly exceeds a dimension of source of main shock. Zöller et al. [G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167–2176] show the growth of correlation length of earthquakes prior to nine large earthquakes in California according to a power low. We argue that the algorithm of correlation length estimation proposed by Zöller et al. [G. Zöller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167–2176] can result in a decrease of correlation length preceding its precursory growth before large earthquakes if the area in which earthquake activity is correlated grows with time during a main shock preparation. The correlation length analysis of acoustic emission events recorded in laboratory experiments on destruction of rocks and correlation length analysis of intermediate magnitude earthquakes in the area of large earthquakes preparation on Kamchatka and in Italy confirms the theoretical argument. This effect can be considered as an additional premonitory pattern of large earthquake preparation.

Triggered aseismic fault slip from nearby earthquakes, static or dynamic effect?

Observations show that an earthquake can affect aseismic slip behavior of nearby faults and produce “triggered aseismic fault slip.” Two types of stress changes are often examined by researchers as possible triggering sources. One is the static stress change associated with the faulting process and the other is the dynamic stress change or transient deformation generated by the passage of seismic waves. No consensus has been reached, however, regarding the mechanism(s) of triggered aseismic fault slip. We evaluate the possible triggering role of static stress changes by examining observations made after 10 large earthquakes in California. Most of the nearby fault segments that slipped aseismically were encouraged to move by the imposed positive changes in static Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS). Nonetheless, three discrepancies or failures with this model exist, which implies that static stress triggering either is or is not the sole mechanism causing the observed triggered slip. We then use a spring‐slider system as a simplified fault model to study its slip behavior and the impact of transient (dynamic) loading on it. We show that a two‐state‐variable rate‐dependent and state‐dependent frictional law can generate creep events. Transient loads are then put into the system. Certain types of them can cause a large time advance of (or trigger) the next creep event. While our work examines triggered creep events near the surface, it may well have implications for the occurrence of similar events near the bottom of the seismogenic zone where a transition in frictional stability occurs.

Earthquake size‐frequency relations from an analytical stochastic rupture model

An analytical stochastic model of earthquake rupture is presented. Although the general formulation makes no a priori self‐similarity assumption, scale independent earthquake size‐frequency (ESF) statistics emerge from the interaction between fault strength heterogeneity and rupture mechanics. The model also gives theoretical derivations for scale dependent ESF statistics, including gradual frequency saturation for small earthquakes, and a continuum of possible transitions in the statistics of large earthquakes. A model fault is characterized as a surface composed of a large number of asperities, defined as small, discrete contact surfaces of finite strength. An earthquake rupture grows via successive asperity‐breaking subevents. The probability of rupture to a certain size earthquake or greater is the total product of incremental rupture growth probabilities. These are governed by a new asperity failure probability distribution, derived as a mixture of Weibull distributions. By including fracture mechanics, the resulting mixture distribution, characterized by the scale and shape parameters Λ and Γ, is written in terms of the rupture size. The important difference between the mixture distribution and the Weibull distribution is that the mixture results in power law ESF statistics. Self‐similarity occurs when material heterogeneity and rupture mechanics are mutually “tuned” to give Λ = Γ = 1. Frequency saturation for small earthquakes is shown to be a simple consequence of a general aseismic nucleation process. The nucleation magnitude mν defines the roll‐off point in ESF statistics that occurs when the area of seismic rupture equals the area of precursory, aseismic rupture growth. By fitting the model to the Parkfield earthquake data set, mν = 0.9 is obtained. The change in ESF scaling for the transition from moderate to large earthquakes depends on the changes in stress at the growing rupture front. The Northern California Earthquake Data Center seismicity data set is fitted for a transition at magnitude m ≃ 5 with Λ′ = 0.4 and Γ′ = 0.75. This result indicates that the change in the ESF relation associated with the transition from moderate to large earthquakes in California and Nevada is caused by surface rupture accompanied by partial width and slip saturation.

Relations Among Fault Behavior, Subsurface Geology, and Three-Dimensional Velocity Models

The development of three-dimensional P-wave velocity models for the regions surrounding five large earthquakes in California has lead to the recognition of relations among fault behavior and the material properties of the rocks that contact the fault at seismogenic depths; regions of high moment release appear to correlate with high seismic velocities whereas rupture initiation or termination may be associated with lower seismic velocities. These relations point toward a physical understanding of why faults are divided into segments that can fail independently, an understanding that could improve our ability to predict earthquakes and strong ground motion.