Landowner Decisions Research Articles

Marshes to mangroves: Residential surveys reveal perceived wetland trade-offs for ecosystem services

Coastal landscapes are rapidly changing due to both climate change and the decisions of waterfront landowners. For instance, the climate-driven encroachment of woody mangrove species into grassy marshland areas is predicted to impact coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the ecosystem services these landscapes provide to people. However, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning coastal resident perceptions of the effects of mangrove expansion on wetlands and their ecosystem services, which may impact residents’ behavior around shorelines and landscape-level patterns. We surveyed waterfront residents in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) to understand perceptions of the relative performance of marshes and mangroves to deliver fisheries ecosystem services. Residential-scale shoreline condition and preference, recreational fishing activity, geography, and demographics were evaluated as potential predictors of resident perceptions through non-parametric comparisons across groups and ordered logit modeling. Significant predictors included area of residence, marsh shoreline condition, marsh shoreline preference, fishing frequency, and household income. Florida residents (where mangroves are most prevalent) and frequent recreational fishing participants exhibited stronger preference for mangroves. Unexpectedly, residents with marsh currently present on their shoreline also perceived that mangroves were better at delivering fisheries ecosystem services than marshes. Considering the important role that coastal residents play in shoreline management decisions, these results demonstrate how coastal resident attitudes may drive or mediate climate-driven processes in ways that are not evident by examining environmental conditions alone. Understanding social-ecological shifts due to climate change will be important to inform effective landscape management that promotes resilience in coastal ecosystems and societies.

Effective Engagement Techniques Across the Agricultural Conservation Practice Adoption Process.

Encouraging agricultural landowners to adopt conservation practices is crucial to enhancing ecosystem services in privately-owned farm landscapes. To improve engagement with landowners and increase adoption rates, much research has been dedicated to investigating how different psychological, social, economic, and political factors correlate with adoption. However, these studies largely measure adoption as a discrete, binary event. Doing so obscures sequences of landowner decisions and engagement techniques that conservation practitioners use to encourage landowners' progression through the adoption process. We report on two studies that contribute to the emerging literature on the agricultural conservation practice adoption process and the varying effectiveness of engagement techniques throughout. First, interviews with conservation practitioners in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA, yielded a preliminary model of the different stages in the adoption process and what techniques practitioners find effective at each stage. Second, an online experiment examined the effectiveness of a visualization intervention across two sequential outcomes in the adoption process, seeking further information and contacting a practitioner. Our results suggested that practitioners use a wide variety of engagement techniques, most of which are unique to a single stage in the adoption process, and that the effectiveness of the visualization technique varies substantially between different stages. Together these studies outline a suite of techniques that other practitioners may find effective at different stages of the adoption process, and suggest that research can better inform practice by accounting for variation in the effectiveness of different techniques across stages of adoption.

Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry

The timing of climate adaptation decisions can have substantial consequences for the assessment of climate damages. Since weather variability can create risks for natural resource management that differ across adaptation choices, such variability has the potential to alter the speed of climate adaptation. This paper estimates the effect of weather variability on the timing of adaptation decisions of forest landowners in the Eastern United States. A discrete-choice econometric model of forest management is estimated and used in a bio-economic simulation that shows how variability in cold temperatures can significantly slow the rate of adapting from cold-tolerant natural hardwood forests to cold-sensitive, but highly valuable pine plantations. The range of weather variability in climate projections and across the landscape generates large differences in adaptation timing. Ignoring projected future decreases in weather variability results in a large downward bias in estimating future paths of climate adaptation. Since pine plantations produce fewer non-market ecosystem services than natural hardwood forests, an important source of future conservation uncertainty is the economic response of private forest landowners to changing weather variability.

Estimating the ex ante adoption determinants of novel cropping systems with nonpecuniary benefits

AbstractLandowners who value the nonpecuniary benefits of novel cropping systems may be more likely to adopt those systems in response to new market opportunities. We examine ex ante adoption decisions for bioenergy crops in Wisconsin using stated preference data from nonoperator landowners. Bioenergy crops produce biomass, a private good, and may jointly contribute to civic or environmental public goods. We find that pecuniary and nonpecuniary benefits influence landowner decisions, but the effects differ by annual and perennial crop types. Landowners may trade pecuniary for nonpecuniary benefits when equating the marginal utility of land uses, resulting in lower willingness‐to‐accept values for adoption.

Socio-spatial factors influence climate change adaptation decisions of rural coastal landowners

Socio-spatial factors influence climate change adaptation decisions of rural coastal landowners

Exploring and Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making in the Face of Deep Uncertainty

We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for analysis. We applied the modeling system to an 815 km2 study area in western Oregon at a sub-taxlot parcel grain and annual timestep, generating hundreds of alternative futures for 2007–2056 (50 years) to explore how WUI communities facing compound risks from increasing wildfire and expanding periurban development can situate and assess alternative risk management approaches in their localized SES context. The ability to link trends and uncertainties across many futures to processes and events that unfold in individual futures is central to the modeling system. By contrasting selected alternative futures, we illustrate how assessing simulated feedbacks between wildfire and other SES processes can identify tradeoffs and leverage points in fire-prone WUI landscapes. Assessments include a detailed “post-mortem” of a rare, extreme wildfire event, and uncovered, unexpected stabilizing feedbacks from treatment costs that reduced the effectiveness of agent responses to signs of increasing risk.

The roles of risk preferences, selection, and uncertain returns on land contracts

AbstractUsing panel data on a statistically representative sample of Iowa farmland parcels from 1997 to 2017, we analyze the factors determining whether land is farmed by the owner or rented out under a cash rent or crop share contract. The landowner's decision to rent or operate the land depends on the distribution of expected net returns to the land, and so estimates of the factors affecting rental terms will be biased if the sample only includes rental contracts and excludes the owner‐operator. Land with higher mean and/or lower variance of expected net returns is most likely to be rented out. Participants in the rental market will include the most risk‐averse landowners and the least risk‐averse tenants, while the least risk‐averse landowners operate their own land. Our empirical results suggest that the rising use of cash rent contracts and declining incidence of owner‐operation and crop‐share rental contracts is consistent with falling coefficient of variation in expected net returns per acre.

Optimum Weather Conditions for Prescribed Burning in the Flint Hills Region

Highlights The subjectivity of landowner decisions in prescribed burning was influenced by solar radiation and relative humidity. Landowners preferred to burn when there was less cloud cover, which promoted O3 generation. Proposed optimum weather conditions will reduce the smoke impact on O3. Abstract. Land managers use weather conditions to determine when meteorological and fuel conditions are suitable for prescribed burning. The objectives of this study were: 1) to characterize meteorological parameters’ sensitivities and identify the influential weather parameters connected to daily fire activities; and 2) to identify optimum weather conditions that are practical for mitigating the smoke impact associated with prescribed fires in the Flint Hills region. Machine learning techniques using random forest (RF) with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values and Pearson correlation were used to identify the relative importance of weather variables and their impact on landowner burn decisions in the Flint Hills region based on historic data from 2003-2019. Results showed that less cloud cover demonstrated superior predictive power in landowner decisions for prescribed burning and largely resulted in elevated ambient ozone (O3). We found out that six days per burning season on average provided the proposed optimum weather conditions, where cloud cover ranged from 10+ to 55%. However, 62% of the total burned area occurred when the cloud cover was less than 10+% during 2003-2019. By changing the current burning occurrence to the proposed optimum weather conditions in our study, the probability of 70+ ppb O3 occurrence could be reduced from 35% to 9% on heavy fire days. Keywords: Cloud cover, Optimum weather conditions, Ozone, Prescribed burning.

Landowner decisions regarding utility-scale solar energy on working lands: a qualitative case study in California

Mitigating the predicted impacts of climate change requires rapid expansion of renewable energy production, including Utility-Scale Solar Energy (USSE) on an unprecedented scale. In the US, a significant share of planned USSE targets working lands—particularly farms and ranches—yet the decision factors informing private landowners’ decisions to host USSE on their lands are little understood. Our research addresses this gap through a qualitative case study of working lands in California’s San Joaquin Valley and San Francisco Bay Area, based on 60 interviews with farmers and ranchers, solar developers, and community and government organizations. Applying land system science and agricultural decision-making theory, we find that landowner decisions to host USSE are based on profit-maximization, water availability, visual and ecological landscape values, and agricultural land preservation ethic. Solar interest varies across landowner types, with farmers typically maximizing operational income while maintaining agricultural production, and ranchers often prioritizing lifestyle-related landscape benefits. The current feasibility of integrating solar with agriculture appears to be low beyond sheep grazing, with benefits and drawbacks discussed in detail. Optimal areas for future USSE development include farmlands with declining water availability, lands without permanent crops or high amenity value, and regions with energy-intensive agricultural operations. Study findings can inform state land use planning and community engagement by solar developers.

Conservation Intentions and Place Attachment among Male and Female Forest Landowners*

AbstractForests offer critical social, economic, and ecological benefits. As fifty‐five percent of Georgia's forests are family‐owned, management decisions of these forest landowners have a considerable impact on the state's environment and beyond. So far, little is known about what drives the conservation intentions of forest landowners and how these drivers vary by gender. However, several studies outside the field of forestry have theorized that place attachment predicts pro‐environmental views and behaviors. To test this theory, we surveyed 1,143 family forest landowners in Georgia. Our results show that male landowners report stronger attachments to their forest, except for continuing family legacies which is of greater importance for female landowners. Regression models show that all dimensions of place attachments (dependence, identity, satisfaction, and family legacy) are strong predictors for conservation intentions in males. In contrast, the level of education and only a few dimensions (satisfaction and, to a lesser extent, dependence) of place attachment predict conservation intentions in females. As gender demographics in forest landowners are shifting and environmental degradation is an increasingly pressing concern, this study provides important insights and offers directions for further research for policymakers, researchers, and extension agents.

Discursive barriers to voluntary biodiversity conservation: The case of Finnish forest owners

In many parts of the world, the success of biodiversity conservation strongly depends on the decisions of private landowners. These decisions are guided by the shared perceptions of the biodiversity problem. In this study, we applied a mixed method critical discourse analysis and examined how alternative discourses of biodiversity guide Finnish forest owners to maintain, or not maintain, biodiversity on their lands. Data collection combined a preliminary interview (n = 24) with a forest owner survey (n = 452).We identified four discourses of biodiversity. The concerned discourse acknowledges the biodiversity problems in forests caused by current forestry. The sceptical discourse denies the existence of all biodiversity problems and defends contemporary forestry against the accusations of environmentalists. The harmonising discourse emphasises the harmony of all forest uses in the spirit of multi-objective forestry. The uninvolved discourse distances itself from the biodiversity issue. Overall, only 21% of the survey respondents worried about biodiversity loss in Finnish forests.The discourses illustrate three different ways in which Finnish forest owners moderate the cognitive dissonance caused by ‘unpleasant’ information on biodiversity loss by either excluding or rejecting it, or assimilating it into multi-objective harmony. Overcoming these kinds of discursive barriers – the mechanisms that help decision-makers ignore alarming realities – is a major challenge for all those who aim to halt biodiversity loss.

Worse off on purpose: An economic analysis of deliberate forest degradation

High grading is, by definition, wealth-destructive, and yet the practice is widespread. Explanations of high grading typically assume landowners are greedy, impatient, or ignorant. None of these explanations are robust. This paper develops an analytical model of landowner decision making that provides a richer explanation for this counterproductive practice. The model centers on buyers’ behavior in markets for heterogeneous-quality forestland. Facing imperfect information, it is rational for buyers to shade their estimated valuation of a prospective property up or down toward the region-wide average. Because high-quality forestland thus sells at a discount, and low-quality forestland for a premium, the so-called strip-and-flip strategy can outperform good, long-term silviculture. A simulation case study for a northern hardwood forest in the Adirondack region of New York illustrates this theoretical model. The simulation incorporates empirical growth models, continuous quality-specific price functions, and integer programming methods to specify the tree-by-tree harvest schedule that maximizes long-term net present value. An alternative simulation conditions cutting decisions on the expected sale price at the end of a ten-year investment period, resulting in a systematic—or, perhaps, “selective”—shift in harvesting patterns favoring removal of high-value trees. In presenting an improved theory of high grading, this study helps direct policy makers’ attention away from dismissive characterizations of landowners as dumb, greedy, or both, and toward closer analysis of the institutional factors that drive deliberate forest degradation.

Understanding landowner decisions regarding access to private land for conservation research

AbstractPrivate land comprises over half the land mass of the United States—dominating certain ecosystems and hosting large numbers of threatened and endangered species. Understanding privately owned properties is thus critically important to conservation, yet these lands remain understudied by conservation biologists. A key factor in this lack of research is the difficulty of gaining permission to access private lands. However, there has been almost no empirical work to offer guidance for natural scientists on this issue. Using a combination of mail surveys and interviews, we undertook one of the first empirical studies of landowner decisions regarding access to their private property for research, and we identified the primary drivers and deterrents. We found that natural scientists may have more success gaining access if the landowners are interested in learning about the research taking place, if they have previously allowed research on their property, if they have positive attitudes toward conservation, and if they have larger properties. We also found that many landowners allowed research out of a desire to be helpful. Conversely, landowners are less likely to allow research if they are concerned that doing so will restrict free use of their property. Landowner age, education, trust in science, and attitude toward the subject of study were not significant predictors of landowner decisions. By considering our findings when requesting access to properties and engaging with landowners during research, scientists can improve their chances of accessing properties, enhance landowner satisfaction with the experience, and increase the likelihood that landowners will be amenable to future requests to conduct research on their land.

Trade-offs between environmental and economic factors in conversion from exotic pine production to natural regeneration on erosion prone land

Background:Some of New Zealand’s exotic pine (Pinus radiata D.Don) forests were planted for erosion mitigation but cultural, legislative, environmental, and profitability limitations in some parts of the landscape have led to reassessment of their suitability. There is limited information to support landowner decisions on the viability of natural regeneration of native forest post-pine-harvest.Methods:We evaluated scenarios of post-harvest natural regeneration, compared to remaining in pine production, using erosion susceptibility determined from historical occurrence of landslides, gullies and earthflows, biophysical growth modelling of mānuka–kānuka (Leptospermum scoparium-Kunzea ericoides (A.Rich) Joy Thomps.) shrubland using the process-based CenW model, and cost-benefit analyses using NZFARM with two land use change scenarios, at two levels of erosion mitigation ± honey profits.Results:In our study area, the Gisborne Region (North Island of New Zealand), ~27% of the land has moderate–very high susceptibility to landslides, 14–22% a high probability of contributing material to waterways, and 19% moderate–very high gully erosion susceptibility. Pines grow 10 times faster than naturally regenerating mānuka–kānuka shrubland, but mānuka–kānuka is used for honey not wood production. Natural regeneration resulted in losses of $150–250 ha−1 yr−1 compared to the current profitability of pine production. Honey production offset some reduction in pine revenue, but not fully. Thus, the viability of shifting from pines to native forest is highly dependent on landowner impetus and value for non-market ecosystem services (such as cultural and biodiversity values) provided by native forest.Conclusions:A mosaic of land uses within a property may sufficiently offset income losses with other benefits, whereby highly erosion-prone land is shifted from rotational pine forest production to permanent native forest cover with honey production where possible. At the regional scale in Gisborne, the conversion of the most highly susceptible land under production forestry (315–556 ha) to natural regeneration has the potential for wider benefits for soil conservation reducing erosion by 1–2.5 t yr−1 of sediment facilitating achievement of cleaner water aspirations and habitat provision.

Factors affecting the spatial density of longleaf pine plantations under the Conservation Reserve Program in Georgia, United States

Several initiatives are promoting longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) restoration in the Southern United States for conserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), landowners plant longleaf pine on farmlands and pasturelands in exchange for annual payments and other financial incentives. While the introduction of this program was an important step towards longleaf pine restoration, there exists a necessity to understand how the decisions of landowners to enroll in CRP are manifested over space. An understanding about the role of a range of factors on the spatial density of longleaf pine plantations enrolled under CRP would help in prioritizing locations for longleaf pine plantations, thereby increasing the efficacy of conservation-related resources. We evaluate the effects of socioeconomic, topographic, and distance variables on the spatial density of longleaf plantations enrolled under CRP using clustered point process model in Georgia, a state with 47% of the total acreage under CRP-supported longleaf plantations. Only 30% of the current longleaf pine locations under CRP were within the Significant Geographic Area. About 86% of current longleaf plantations under CRP are present on former croplands and pasturelands. The spatial density of longleaf pine plantations is negatively associated with the distance from cropland and pastureland and positively associated with land capability classes, and distance from the sawmills. Longleaf pine restoration efforts should focus on those croplands or pasturelands which are closer to existing CRP-supported plantations, located on lower soil capability classes, and are far from wood consuming mills. Our study would support current programs that are supporting longleaf pine restoration in the Southern United States.

What drives private landowner decisions? Exploring non-native grass management in the eastern Great Plains

Non-native grasses used as forage for domestic livestock can negatively impact ecosystem services provided by grasslands. In the U.S., most grazed grasslands are privately owned so the introduction and reduction of non-native grasses are both driven by landowner behavior. Yet, the social factors that shape non-native grass management are rarely explored. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated how decisions to reduce these grasses through practices such as herbicide application, prescribed fire, and physical removal are influenced by attitudes, norms, and perceived ability. We administered a mixed mode (mailback and online) survey in 2017 to landowners in the eastern Great Plains of the U.S., in a region where cattle production remains the predominant land-use. Using structural equation modeling with parceling, we tested hypotheses related to management decisions derived from a model integrating two theories – the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Norm Activation Model. In this analysis, we identified perceived ability (i.e., access to time, skills, or other necessary resources) as a barrier to adoption for landowners who were already willing to manage non-native grasses. Positive attitudes toward management and increased social norm pressures were both associated with increased sentiments of moral responsibility to reduce non-native grasses. These personal norms, together with attitudes, positively influenced willingness to control non-native grasses. Further, we observed that social norms related to expectations of neighbors had more influence on personal norms than the social norms from natural resource agencies. The power of norms to explain individual management decisions suggests that landowners could be engaged in landscape-scale initiatives by leveraging moral responsibility and influential social groups.

Designing effective incentives for living shorelines as a habitat conservation strategy along residential coasts

AbstractShoreline armoring is a pervasive driver of habitat loss and ecosystem decline along coastlines. Nature‐based strategies for coastal protection, such as “living shorelines,” offer potential alternatives to armoring and are rapidly gaining traction among conservation scientists and practitioners. However, along residential coasts where armoring has often occurred at high rates, transitioning away from armoring has been generally slow. We studied the attitudes, beliefs, and decisions of waterfront homeowners with a goal of identifying effective incentives for living shorelines as a conservation tool for reversing coastal habitat loss. We show that while only 18% of homeowners with armored shorelines would willingly transition to living shorelines during a key window of opportunity, a modest economic incentive could increase the likelihood among 43% of all respondents and up to 61% of recent homeowners. Our study demonstrates potential pathways for navigating social, economic, and environmental influences on landowner decisions for coastal habitat conservation.

Land use decisions after the Conservation Reserve Program: Re‐enrollment, reversion, and persistence in the southern Great Plains

AbstractThe temperate grasslands of North America remain one of the most modified and threatened ecosystems on the planet. In the United States, the conservation of grassland‐dependent wildlife continues to be challenged by the widespread conversion of privately owned grasslands to cropland. Recent analyses indicate that land exiting the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the country's largest private lands conservation program, is a primary source of grassland conversion. In this mixed‐methods study, we employed focus groups and mail surveys to understand the decisions made by landowners in the southern Great Plains as their CRP contracts near expiration and up to 7 years following expiration. We explored both the post‐contract intentions of landowners with fields currently enrolled in CRP and the self‐reported, post‐contract decisions of landowners whose CRP contracts expired between 2011 and 2017. Interest in re‐enrolling in CRP upon contract expiration was high among landowners with current fields; however, over half of landowners with former CRP fields reported being unable to re‐enroll when they tried. We found higher rates of grassland persistence than have been previously reported, but also detected temporal patterns that suggest that cropland reversion is increasingly likely as the time since contract expiration increases. This study highlights the need for increased attention to the barriers that preclude transition into other conservation programs following CRP and more detailed understanding of what drives landowner decision‐making about re‐enrollment and post‐CRP land use. These insights will be critical for increasing the effectiveness of programs for enduring grassland conservation on private lands.

Are forest plantation subsidies affecting land use change and off-farm income? A farm-level analysis of Chilean small forest landowners

Forest plantations have increased rapidly in the last three decades, to a large extent due to direct and indirect financial incentives. At the farm level, forestry incentives can affect the investment decisions of small forest landowners and bring socioeconomic externalities or unintended effects associated with farm management. The purpose of this study is to assess the ex post impacts of a forestry subsidy on land use changes and off-farm income experienced by Chilean small forest landowners. A structural equation mediation model (SEM) was estimated using a time frame of 15 years (1998–2013). To reduce the selection bias, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed prior to the estimation of the SEM. Results indicate that the subsidy had a significant effect on land use changes, as it increases forest plantations and replaces pastures primarily, but also crops and native forest to a lesser extent. In addition, beneficiaries of the subsidy had a marginal increase in off-farm income not explained by the increase in forest plantation.

Designing Effective Incentives to Reverse Coastal Habitat Degradation along Residential Shorelines

Nature-based strategies for erosion control and coastal protection, such as “living shorelines”, are rapidly gaining traction among conservation scientists and practitioners. Living shorelines are often described as environmentally preferable alternatives to traditional shoreline armoring, which degrades natural coastal habitats and contributes to biodiversity loss in coastal ecosystems. However, a transition away from traditional armoring along many residential coastlines has been slow. We studied the attitudes, beliefs, and decisions of waterfront homeowners with natural vs. armored shorelines with a focus on identifying effective incentives for implementing living shorelines and reversing coastal habitat loss. We show that while only 18% of homeowners with vertical walls would willingly transition to a living shoreline, a modest economic incentive during a key window of opportunity could potentially persuade approximately 40% to reconsider. Our study demonstrates the critical importance of understanding the social, economic, and environmental influences on individual landowner decisions to develop effective strategies for coastal habitat conservation and restoration along private shorelines.