In the coming decades, the failure and expiration of over 100,000 landfills involving billions of tons of waste not only threaten global water security but also lead to a sudden increase in the global demand for solid waste disposal. Therefore, further research is needed on the ways in which landfill performance is degraded, their life expectancy, the factors that influence them and the ways in which they are influenced. A study estimated the performance degradation and expected lifespan of a modern hazardous waste landfill in China. The landfill experienced slow performance degradation in early years (0–12 years). But during mid-term (12–62 years) due to the rapid degradation of the liner material, the rate of leakage from the containment layer will increase by a factor of 4.8–27.1, leading to its earliest failure after about 38 years. This indicates the need for measures to prevent rapid performance degradation in the middle of the landfill's service life and to strengthen monitoring of performance indicators and environmental medium pollution in the later period (after 62 years) to respond to potential scrapping and pollutant leakage problems. Differences in construction quality and regional climate can cause differences in the lifespan of landfill facilities by up to 20 and 30 times, highlighting the importance of scenario-based failure and lifespan prediction for designing reasonable monitoring plans and preparing response measures to prevent potential groundwater pollution and to meet the sudden increase in demand for secondary waste disposal.