Land Use Cover Change Research Articles

A 28-time-point cropland area change dataset in Northeast China from 1000 to 2020

Abstract. Based on historical documents, population data, published results, remote sensing data products, statistical data, and survey data, this study reconstructed the cropland area and the spatial pattern changes at 28 time points from 1000 to 2020 in Northeast China. The period from 1000 to 1600 corresponds to historical provincial-level administrative districts, while the period from 1700 to 2020 corresponds to modern county-level administrative districts. The main findings are as follows: (1) the cropland in Northeast China exhibited phase changes of expansion–reduction–expansion over the past millennium. (2) The cropland area in Northeast China increased from 0.55×104 km2 in 1000 to 37.90×104 km2 in 2020, and the average cropland fraction increased from 0.37 % to 26.27 %; (3) from 1000 to 1200, the cropland area exhibited an increasing trend, which peaked in 1200. The scope of land reclamation was comparable to modern times, but the overall cropland fraction remained low. The cropland area significantly decreased between 1300 and 1600, with the main land reclamation area being reduced southward into Liaoning province. From 1700 to 1850, the cropland area increased slowly and the agricultural reclamation gradually expanded northward. After 1850, there was almost exponential growth, with the cropland area continuously expanding to the whole study area, and this growth trend persists until 2020; (4) the dataset of changes in the cropland of administrative districts in Northeast China, reconstructed based on multiple data sources and improved historical cropland reconstruction methods, significantly enhances time resolution and reliability. Additionally, the dataset shows relatively better credibility assessment results, which can provide a refined database for historical land use and land cover change (LUCC) dataset reconstruction, carbon emission estimation, climate data construction, etc. The dataset can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25450468.v2 (Jia et al., 2024).

Assessment of dyna clue model for prediction of spatio-temporal dynamics of urbanisation and green space in Jaipur district, Rajasthan (India)

Urbanisation in Jaipur, Rajasthan’s capital, has significantly impacted land use and land cover (LULC) over the past four decades. This study addresses the pressing issue of how rapid urban expansion affects green spaces and environmental balance. Utilizing satellite imagery and a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, LULC maps for 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 were generated to analyze changes in land cover, including agriculture, barren land, built-up areas, vegetation, wasteland, fallow land, and water bodies. The Dyna-CLUE model, incorporating variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and proximity to streams and roads, was employed to forecast LULC changes for 2033 and 2043. The findings reveal a marked increase in built-up areas at the expense of vegetative cover, driven by urbanization, infrastructural development, agricultural expansion, climate change, and policy decisions. With Kappa coefficients indicating high agreement between classified land cover and ground truth data (84–90% accuracy), the study projects continued urban growth and further decline in vegetation. This underscores the urgent need for sustainable land use planning and environmental conservation in Jaipur. Proposed strategies to address these issues include establishing ecological zones, enforcing green building regulations, promoting mixed-use development, and implementing a 15-min green space policy. These measures aim to enhance green space distribution and support Jaipur’s transition towards a greener urban environment.

EVALUACIÓN DEL IMPACTO DE LOS CAMBIOS EN EL USO Y COBERTURA DE LA TIERRA EN EL ESCURRIMIENTO SUPERFICIAL

The aim of this study was to analyze the behavior of surface runoff as a result of changes in land use and land cover (LULC), using the Rio Novo basin (Brazil) as the analysis site. To estimate surface runoff, the curve number (NRCS-CN) method was used; as input data, the LULC classifications provided by the MapBiomas project and the pedological map of the state of São Paulo (1:250,000) were used. The Rio Novo basin was discretized into ten sub-basins. The results showed major changes in LULC between 1992 and 2022, with a reduction in pasture areas and an increase in annual crops and sugarcane fields, as well as in urban areas. Such alterations are conditioning factors of changes in Curve Number (CN) values, which imply changes in surface runoff values. For a rainfall of 130 mm (roughly 10-year return period), the surface runoff depth values ranged from 3.21 mm (areas with forest cover on soils in hydrological group A) to 101.35 mm (for urban areas on soils in hydrological group C). The urbanization process that occurred in sub-basins 1, 6, and 9 led to an increase in areas with the highest CN values (CN equal to 85 and 90). Locations with increased surface runoff values should be considered as critical areas, where soil and water losses may occur, thereby compromising water security in the basin. Keywords: NRSC-CN method, Geographic Information System, Water Resources Management, MapBiomas.

Machine Learning and Remote Sensing Applications for Assessing Land Use and Land Cover Changes for Under-monitored Basin

Urban sprawling caused by industrial and economic growth has significantly affected land use and land cover (LULC). Using satellite imagery for real-time examination in Kuantan has become exceedingly expensive due to the scarcity and obsolescence of real-time LULC data. With the advent of remote sensing and geographical information systems, LULC change assessment is feasible. A quantitative assessment of image classification schemes (supervised classification using maximum likelihood and deep learning classification using random forest) was examined using 2022 Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to measure its performance. Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy were used to determine the classification accuracy. Then, 32 years of LULC changes in Kuantan were investigated using Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI, and Sentinel-2 based on the best classifier. Random forest classification outperformed maximum likelihood classification with an overall accuracy of 85% compared to 92.8%. The findings also revealed that urbanisation is the main factor contributing to land changes in Kuantan, with a 32% increase in the build-up region and 32% in forest degradation. Despite the subtle and extremely dynamic connection between ecosystems, resources, and settlement, these LULC changes can be depicted using satellite imagery. With the precision of using a suitable classification scheme based on comprehensive, accurate and precise LULC maps can be generated, capturing the essence of spatial dynamics, especially in under-monitored basins. This study provides an overview of the current situation of LULC changes in Kuantan, along with the driving factors that can help the authorities promote sustainable development goals.

Linking land use and precipitation changes to water quality changes in Lake Victoria using earth observation data

Due to the continued increase in land use changes and changing climatic patterns in the Lake Victoria basin, understanding the impacts of these changes on the water quality of Lake Victoria is imperative for safeguarding the integrity of the freshwater ecosystem. Thus, we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of land cover, precipitation, and water quality changes in the Lake Victoria basin between 2000 and 2022 using global satellite products. Focusing on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and turbidity (TUR) in Lake Victoria, we used statistical metrics (correlation coefficient, trend analysis, change budget, and intensity analysis) to understand the relationship between land use and precipitation changes in the basin with changes in Chl-a and TUR at two major pollution hotspots on the lake, i.e., Winam Gulf and Inner Murchison Bay (IMB). Results show that the Chl-a and TUR concentrations in the Winam gulf increase with increases in precipitation. Through increases in precipitation, the erosion risks are increased and transport of nutrients from land to the lake system, promoting algal growth and turbidity. In the IMB, Chl-a and TUR concentrations decrease with an increase in precipitation, possibly due to dilution, but peak during moderate rainfall. Interestingly, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) at 5-year intervals showed no substantial correlation with water quality changes at selected hotspots even though a broader LULC change analysis over the past two decades indicated a notable 300% increase in built-up areas across the Lake Victoria basin. These findings underscore the dominant influence of precipitation changes over LULC changes on the water quality of Lake Victoria for the selected hotspot areas.

Ecological effects of land use and land cover change in the typical ecological functional zones of Egypt

Evaluation the value of ecosystem services can provide crucial reference for formulating ecological protection plans and making informed management decision. This study utilized Landsat remote sensing images as the data source and employed land-use transfer chains and land use transfer matrix methods to compare the ecological effects of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in the two typical ecological functional zones of Egypt, one area isthe northern region of Egypt with the Priority function of Economic Development, another area is the Nasser Reservoir area with the priority function of water conservation. The key findings are as follows: (1)The northern region of Egypt and the Nasser Reservoir exhibited different trends across the ecological functional zones.From 1985 to 2020, the northern region of Egypt is characterized by an increase in arable land and impervious surface,the Nasser Reservoir area is distinguished by the expansion of water and a reduction in sand.(2) Key land transfer patterns vary significantly between the ecological functional zones of the northern region of Egypt and the Nasser Reservoir. From 1985 to 2020, the Egypt’s northern region experienced significant shifts between arable land, sand, and impervious surfaces. The conversion of arable land to impervious surfaces represented 2.41% of the total arable land transfer area, while sand converted to impervious surfaces accounted for 11.68% of the total sand transfer area. In the Nasser Reservoir region, significant conversions occurred between water, grasslands, and sand. Sand converted to water made up 3.83% of the total sand transfer area, while grassland converted to water compriseed 5.38% of the total grassland transfer area. (3) The ecological benefits of the northern region of Egypt and the Nasser Reservoir have increased significantly. In northern region of Egypt, the primary drivers of this increase in ecological service value are the conversion of arable land and grasslands, along with the ecological development and utilization of sand. In the Nasser Reservoir area,the inflow of water and the continued outflow of sands are the main factors contributing to the rise in ecosystem service value. (4) Differentiated LUCC management should be implemented for different ecological functional zones. In northern region of Egypt, the focus should be on balancing ecological security with human development, while the Nasser Reservoir area should prioritize water resource protection and sustainable development. The research findings are not only significant for optimizing LUCC but also for enhancing ecosystem service functions in Egypt.

Ecological protection makes the ecological Kuznets curve turning point come earlier

Exploring the relationship between land use cover/change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) under different future scenarios can provide guidance for selecting future development patterns and for the scientific utilization of land resources in the region. In this study, LUCC under different scenarios in the North Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) was simulated using the PLUS model. The ESV coefficients were adjusted for regional differences and social development factors to better reflect the actual situation in the study area. The interactions between LUCC, landscape pattern (LSP), and ESV were systematically analyzed, while at the same time, ESV and the level of economic development were fitted to the Ecological Kuznets Curve, which was then used to determine its trend and inflection point. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Cropland and unused land are the main types of land use change in the NSTM, both historically and in the future. Cropland shows an increase in the natural development scenario and a decrease in the ecological protection scenario. Unused land shows an increase in the different development scenarios, indicating that unused land has higher development potential in the NSTM. NSTM shows a continuous decrease in ESV in the natural development scenario and a continuous increase in ESV in the ecological protection scenario. (2) LSP in both historical and future NSTM have evolved to show fragmentation, heterogeneity, and complexity in patch forms. However, this trend is slower in the ecological protection scenario than in the natural development scenario. LUCC, LSP, and ESV form an integrated framework of interactions, where LUCC influences ESV through LSP, and changes in ESV feedback to LUCC through LSP, which acts as a bridging mediator. (3) The Ecological Kuznets Curve of NSTM exhibits an N-shape, showing a clear overall rightward trend across different development scenarios at the annual level. At the interannual level, the curves for the natural development scenario are situated in the middle of the declining phase of the N-shape, with no ecological inflection point occurring during the study period. In contrast, the curves for the ecological protection scenario display a declining-ascending trend, with the ecological inflection point occurring when per capita GDP reaches 2.5 × 10^6 CNY.

Mapping and Identification of Ecosystem Services Hotspots in the Brazilian Pampa Biome.

The intensification and expansion of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can reduce the availability and quality of natural habitats and ecosystem services (ES). These changes have generated environmental damage in different parts of the world, especially in biomes more susceptible to modifications, such as the Pampa biome in the extreme south of Brazil. The Pampa biome has been neglected by environmental protection laws, despite its broad ecosystem and social importance. In this study, we used InVEST models to map and quantify five ES provided (i.e., water supply, carbon stock, groundwater stock, sediment retention and habitat quality) by 14 watersheds distributed in the Brazilian Pampa biome as well as determine ES hotspots by summing the areas with high provision of ES. We identified low availability of water supply and groundwater stock in practically the entire study area. High sediment retention and carbon stock were reported in areas with the presence of native vegetation. In addition, despite the large degraded areas, we observed high habitat quality associated with native vegetation in all studied watersheds. The hotspots varied spatially in the study area according to the proposed scenarios, the supply and the overlap of ES. Scenario 1 (>50% of ES) presented a larger area of high provision of ES. In contrast, scenario 2 (>75% of ES) presented smaller patches of areas with high provision of ES distributed across different watershed. We observed that large territorial extensions with high and medium provision of ES are vulnerable to the negative effects of LULC. Our study presented scenarios that indicate areas of high provision of ES, contributing to a more practical application, being a simplified and useful tool that can assist conservation and sustainable policies.

Projection of land use and land cover changes based on land change modeler and integrating both land use land cover and climate change on the hydrological response of Big Creek Lake Watershed, South Alabama

Changing land use/land cover (LULC) and climate substantially affect the hydrological components of a watershed. This study explored the future impact of the hydrological responses due to the changing LULC and climate on the Big Creek Lake watershed in Alabama, USA, from 2021 to 2050 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Five climate model datasets were used under the moderate scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 4.5) and the extreme scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 8.5), and the datasets were downscaled and bias-corrected. In addition, changing the LULC of five categories was predicted by Cellular Automata Markov (CA- Markov). With these data combined with the elevation (Digital Elevation Model), soils, and weather data, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the studied watershed to quantify how climate change will affect streamflow, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Our results indicate streamflow will increase due to the 50-acre increase in urban LULC. As streamflow increases, the percolation, surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater flow, and water yield will also increase because the streamflow impacts these hydrological components. Moreover, the increase rate in streamflow is the same for all the components for January, February, and March. Therefore, there is a strong correlation between these months. On the contrary, evaporation will be high in May, June, and July because of the increasing temperature and streamflow. However, the changes in the water hydrological parameters and total nitrogen and phosphorus will be more intense in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5.

Assessment and Multiscenario Simulation of Land Use and Ecosystem Services Interactions in Inner Mongolia

ABSTRACTBalancing land development and ecological protection poses significant challenges for sustainable development in arid and semi‐arid regions like Inner Mongolia. This study uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services (ESs) trade‐offs model and patch‐generated land‐use simulation model to analyze the impacts of land‐use/cover (LULC) changes on ESs from 2005 to 2020 and simulate scenarios for 2035. The results show that (1) ecological governance efforts improved the comprehensive ecological index (CEI), habitat quality, and soil conservation capacity but led to a decrease in the annual water yield (AWY) in the eastern region. Additionally, the conversion of grassland and forest land to construction land and farmland caused slight declines in carbon sequestration and increased nitrogen export. (2) The external driving factors of different ESs vary, and the internal relationships within ESs have also changed. Notably, changes in LULC transformed the synergy between AWY and habitat quality into a trade‐off relationship after 2010 due to increased forest and grassland. (3) Among the five land‐use scenarios, the comprehensive development scenario combined with zonal management strategies can achieve the sustainable development goals of economic growth, ecological protection, and food security. This study clarifies the internal and external factors affecting ESs in Inner Mongolia and provides a scientific basis for future LULC management and ecological governance policies. It fills a gap in the spatiotemporal simulation of ESs under multiple scenarios in this region. These findings offer valuable references for promoting sustainable development in similar arid and semi‐arid regions, highlighting the importance of integrating multi‐objective strategies and adaptive management practices to balance ecological and economic objectives.

Impact of land use land cover changes on urban temperature in Jakarta: insights from an urban boundary layer climate model

Urbanization is one of the important drivers of increasing local temperatures. As cities and urban areas evolve, extensive land use and land cover (LULC) changes alter the physical characteristics of surface materials. This modification results in reduced evapotranspiration rates, ultimately contributing to higher surface and air temperatures. This study investigated the impact of urbanization on urban temperature in Jakarta. Urban temperature was simulated for a 20-year time period (1995–2014) by the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim, using LULC data for both 1995 and 2014. Temperature changes were analysed by assessing the temperature anomaly across different LULC change classes divided into four main classes namely no built-up changes (BB), no green spaces changes (GG), built-up to green spaces (BG), and green spaces to built-up (GB). The study revealed that the conversion of green spaces to built-up areas (GB) had the most significant impact on the increase in air temperature. This was indicated by the mean values of the temperature anomaly of GB of about 0.24°C followed by GG, BB, and BG with the mean values of the temperature anomaly of about 0.20°C, 0.19°C, 0.17°C, respectively. The different temperature anomalies of the LULC change classes indicate that green spaces have an important role in maintaining local climate. Hence, it is important for local government to effectively manage the composition, the quantity, as well as the distribution of green spaces within a city. By looking at temperature anomalies of LULC change classes, the present study provides an alternative approach to many existing methods that provide general information about temperature changes, without specifically analyzing the effects of LULC transformations.

Land Cover Mapping in West Africa: A Collaborative Process

The availability of current land cover and land use (LCLU) information for monitoring the status of land resources has considerable value in ensuring sustainable land use planning and development. Similarly, the need to provide updated information on the extent of LCLU change in West Africa has become apparent, given the increasing demand for land resources driven by rapid population growth. Over the past decade, multiple projects have been undertaken to produce regional and national land cover maps. However, using different classification systems and legends has made updating and sharing land cover information challenging. This has resulted in the inefficient use of human and financial resources. The development of the Land Cover Meta Language (LCML) based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards offers an opportunity to create a standardized classification system. This system would enable easier integration of regional and national data, efficient management of information, and better resource utilization in West Africa. This article emphasizes the process and the need for multistakeholder collaboration in developing a standardized land cover classification system for West Africa, which is currently nonexistent. It presents the survey data collected to evaluate historical, current, and future land cover mapping projects in the region and provides relevant use cases as examples for operationalizing a standardized land cover classification legend for West Africa.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Assessment of Carbon Stocks in Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on SD-PLUS-InVEST Coupled Modeling in Nanjing City

In the context of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, exploring the changes in land demand and ecological carbon stocks under future scenarios at the urban level is important for optimizing regional ecosystem services and developing a land-use structure consistent with sustainable development strategies. We propose a framework of a coupled system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate the spatial and temporal changes of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon stocks under the NDS (natural development scenario), EPS (ecological protection scenario), RES (rapid expansion scenario), and HDS (high-quality development scenario) in Nanjing from 2020 to 2040. From 2005 to 2020, the expansion rate of construction land in Nanjing reached 50.76%, a large amount of ecological land shifted to construction land, and the ecological carbon stock declined dramatically. Compared with 2020, the ecosystem carbon stocks of the EPS and HDS increased by 2.4 × 106 t and 1.5 × 106 t, respectively, with a sizable ecological effect. It has been calculated that forest and cultivated land are the two largest carbon pools in Nanjing, and the conservation of both is decisive for the future carbon stock. It is necessary to focus on enhancing the carbon stock of forest ecosystems while designating differentiated carbon sink enhancement plans based on the characteristics of other land types. Fully realizing the carbon sink potential of each ecological functional area will help Nanjing achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The results of the study not only reveal the challenges of ecological conservation in Nanjing but also provide useful guidance for enhancing the carbon stock of urban terrestrial ecosystems and formulating land-use planning in line with sustainable development strategies.

Modelling Tree Allometries to Understand the Impact of African Savannah Elephant Herbivory Dynamics on the Vegetation Structure and Tree Cover Change in a Protected Area

ABSTRACTIn landscapes with high elephant density, trees often exhibit more open canopies with fewer branches and foliage due to browsing pressure. This can result in altered tree morphology, with trees exhibiting stunted growth, multiple stems or unusual branching patterns in response to repeated damage from browsing. The objectives of this research were to (i) model the vegetation structure allometries, (ii) assess the impact of African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana) herbivory on the vegetation structure and (iii) assess tree cover change and vegetation performance over time in Mana Pools National Park in Zimbabwe. We established 26 plots of 30 × 30 m size. Selection of sampling plots was done following several steps. First, a fish net grid with 30 × 30 m polygons was created and projected on the polygon of Mana Pools National Park. The polygons for exclusion zones were then clipped from the fish net grid using the clip tool in ArcGIS Pro 3.0. Then, selection of sampling plots was done initially by stratified random sampling using the Sampling Design Tool add in for ArcGIS Pro 3.0. Landsat images for the years 2003, 2013 and 2023 were used to assess land use land cover (LULC) time series and to calculate Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) for the period. A generalised linear model (GLM) was used to analyse tree allometries. Further statistical investigations were performed using Bayesian piecewise regression (BPR) and Bayesian regression modelling (BRM). Basal area, number of stems, height, long canopy, diameter and basal circumference were all significantly different (p < 0.05) across all sampled plots. The change in growing conditions occurring as a tree grows beyond the reach of the African savannah elephant browsing indicates a natural system breakpoint. The best‐fitting models were a simple linear model and a two breakpoint model for the plant population exposed to elephant herbivory. LULC, NDVI and SAVI confirm evidence of high tree regeneration over 2 decades. Understanding the dynamics in vegetation and LULC changes is critical for effective conservation and management of the habitats for African savannah elephants, as well as for maintaining the health and resilience of forest ecosystems.

The Nexus between Land Use/Cover changes and Land Surface Temperature: Remote sensing based Two-Decadal Analysis

The use of Remote Sensing (RS) data is crucial for promptly detecting and monitoring changes in both short and long term, providing real time information on Land Use/Cover (LULC), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), adapting spatio-temporal variations. The primary focus of this study is to assess the effect of LULC changes on LST in Tashk-Bakhtegan and Maharloo (TBM) lakes basin, Iran, within 2001, 2011, and 2021, using MODIS data. Specifically, five main LULC classes involving: water body, rangeland, cropland, urban area, and bareland were identified. Beside accuracy and transition of LULC maps using User Accuracy (UA), Producer Accuracy (PA), and Kappa Coefficient (KC), the analysis included changes in LULC, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and LST, as well as the relationship among them when vegetation cover was at its peak. Moreover, a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was performed to group these variables using Duncan's test. The results showed that the accuracy of LULC maps were more than 84% for all the years. Furthermore, the conversion of croplands to rangelands showed the most significant changes, with a total of 1311.38 km2 during 2001–2021. Average EVI remained almost stable across the total area, whereas average LST generally increased by 0.65 °C. Barelands consistently exhibited the highest temperatures in all the years, followed by urban areas. While no significant changes were observed in the EVI averages, significant changes were observed in the LST across all LULC classes in different years. The results also indicated a consistent negative correlation between LST and EVI, stronger in croplands than rangelands, with Spearman's correlation coefficient of −0.714, −0.674, and −0.623 over the total area in 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively. The findings are crucial for land planners to comprehend the effects of LULC changes on LST to adopt appropriate strategies in the TBM lakes basin.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the landscape pattern and ecosystem services in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

ContextDecades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability.ObjectivesWe focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050.MethodsWe evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario).ConclusionsESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV.

Comparison of various models for multi-scenario simulation of land use/land cover to predict ecosystem service value: A case study of Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration, China

Understanding the intricate changes in land use and land cover (LULC) transformations, as well as accurately quantifying the ecosystem services value (ESV), holds paramount importance in achieving sustainable development goals. However, previous studies have notably neglected conducting empirical evaluations across various LULC prediction models under identical conditions within the same geographical region. Additionally, the majority of relevant studies primarily concentrate on local scales. In this study, we used CA-Markov, Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models to simulate the dynamics of LULC, respectively. Subsequently, we successfully projected the future LULC patterns and corresponding ESV within the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration (HCUA), China. During the period spanning from 2000 to 2020, a persistent reduction of 2067 km2 in farmland was witnessed within the HCUA, while an accompanying expansion of 4081 km2 in built-up land occurred concurrently. The ESV in HCUA experienced a fluctuating trend. There was an initial decline of 7.443 × 109 yuan during the first decade, which was subsequently followed by an increase of 4.615 × 109 yuan during the latter decade. PLUS, FLUS, and CA-Markov models can all simulate the LULC of HCUA, but in decreasing order of accuracy and ease of use, with OA values of 0.8987, 0.8944 and 0.8651, and Kappa values of 0.8217, 0.8150 and 0.7860, respectively. The PLUS model was chosen to predict the future LULC. Then four development scenarios were set. Our optimization results indicate that it is advisable to restrict the area of built-up land within 17000 km2 in 2030. Moreover, under the economic and ecological balance (EEB) scenario, both ESV and economic benefits are projected to increase compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. This study offers valuable insights and serves as a significant reference for future research endeavors focused on optimizing land use.

Measurement report: Intra-annual variability of black carbon and brown carbon and their interrelation with meteorological conditions over Gangtok, Sikkim

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) both have a versatile nature, and they have an apparent role in climate variability and changes. As anthropogenic activity is surging, BC and BrC are also reportedly increasing. So, the monitoring of BC and BrC and observations of land use land cover change (LULCC) at a regional level are necessary for the changes in various interconnected meteorological phenomena. The current study investigates BC, BrC, CO2, BC from fossil fuels (BCff), BC from biomass burning (BCbb), and LULCC and their relationship to the corresponding meteorological conditions over Gangtok in the Sikkim Himalayan region. The concentration of BC (BrC) was found to be highest during March 2022 (April 2021) at 43.5 µg m−3 (32.0 µg m−3)​​​​​​​. Surface pressure exhibits a significant positive correlation with BC, BCff, BCbb, and BrC. Higher surface pressure results in a calmer and more stable boundary layer, which effectively retains deposited contaminants. Conversely, the wind appears to facilitate the dispersion of pollutants, showing a strong negative correlation. The fact that all pollutants and precipitation have been shown to behave similarly points to moist scavenging of the pollutants. Despite the dense cloud cover, it is clear that the area is not receiving convective precipitation, implying that orographic precipitation is occurring over the region. Most of Sikkim receives convective rain from May to September, indicating that the region has significant convective activity contributed from the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season. Furthermore, monsoon months have the lowest concentrations of BC, BCbb, BCff, and BrC, suggesting the potential of convective rain (as rainout scavenging) to remove most of the pollutants.

Effects of recent urbanization on carbon and nitrogen burial rates of sedimentary records in a tropical coastal lagoon (Brazil)

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are a global environmental issue that has impacted biogeochemical cycles worldwide. Sedimentary records can demonstrate the effects of LULCC on aquatic ecosystems, where the recent urbanization has been linked to changes in carbon and nitrogen burial. In this study, we reconstructed long-term LULCC and sedimentary records of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sediment burial rates in a eutrophic tropical coastal lagoon affected by recent urban expansion. Based on analyses of 30 years of satellite imagery and sedimentary records from 1932 to 2013, we revealed that urban expansion over low-productivity agricultural-pasture areas increased siltation and C, N, P concentrations and fluxes in the coastal lagoon. Large temporal variability of such parameters revealed not only the effects of LULCC on the lagoon's burial rates, but also the influence of artificial sand barrier openings, which connect the studied lagoon to the sea, reducing C, N, P, and particle deposition in the sediment. Our results support multi-proxy methods to assess the relationships between recent urbanization, rising C, N, and P burial rates, and the eutrophication process. We highlight that artificial sandbar openings, the current eutrophication management strategy for coastal lagoons, are ineffective in reducing the eutrophication state, even in the recent scenario of decreasing C, N, and P burial rates.

The application of remote sensing and geographic information system techniques for the analysis of land use and land cover changes in Wayanad district of Kerala

Mapping Land Use and Land cover Changes (LULC) and detecting changes using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques is a cost-effective way of gaining a good understanding of the land cover alteration processes caused by land use change and their effects. This study assessed the transformation of the Wayanad district landscape over a period of 23 years. LANDSAT satellite images (of 30 m resolution) encompassing the area at three epochs were classified into nine classes (coffee dominated mixed crop, built-up, evergreen forest, deciduous forest, grassland, mixed crop with built-up, paddy, tea plantation, and waterbody) using the maximum likelihood algorithm, resulting in classes for each land use. The results showed that over the past 23 years, coffee-dominated mixed crops have increased by 0.84% in 2014 and 11.84% in 2022 compared to 1999; deciduous forest area decreased 3.6% and increased 0.6% in 2014 and 2022, respectively. Tea plantations increased by 0.9% in 2014 and by 0.49% in 2022, which decreased by 0.41% compared to 2014. Built-up has increased by 6.42% and 6.02% in 2014 and 2022 respectively, and slightly decreased by 0.4% compared to 2014. Evergreen forest areas increased in 2014 by 6.68% and 2.28% in 2022 and decreased by 4.44% compared to the previous time period. Grass land areas have decreased by 6.25% and 5.33%, respectively, and mixed crops with built-up areas has decreased by 0.74% and remained the same in the last two epochs, while paddy and waterbodies have decreased by 3.4%, 15.79%, and 0.07 and 0.19%, respectively, in 2014 and 2022 of the total geographical area Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS techniques, LULC, forest cover