Land Conservation Research Articles

Hydrological impacts of the conservation reserve program—a mini review

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a voluntary land conservation initiative implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program aims to improve the natural environment and enhance wildlife by incentivizing landowners to convert sensitive agricultural land into vegetative cover. This mini review synthesizes known peer-reviewed research on the effects of CRP on hydrological processes, highlighting the effects on water quality, groundwater levels, surface water yields, surface water runoff, and effects on the hydrological cycle. These studies show that the CRP appears to have a positive impact on water quality, decreasing the levels of nitrogen and suspended solids. Furthermore, the CRP denotes positive results when used to manage excess runoff on surrounding land. Regarding groundwater volume, the impact of CRP varied by location and showed limited changes in volume. Despite these findings, this review highlights the need for further and continued research on the effects of CRP on hydrology to improve monitoring strategies and increase its benefits on the environment.

Integrating Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors for a Sustainable Circular Economy in Thailand

This study fills a significant research gap by examining the factors influencing the circular economy in Thailand, particularly within the context of developing countries. Utilizing regression and correlation analysis, we investigate key environmental and socioeconomic variables: greenhouse gas emissions, forest area percentage, income levels among the poorest 20% of the population, access to electricity, and income inequality. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive integration of these dimensions to identify barriers and sustainable circular economy. Key findings reveal that higher greenhouse gas emissions correlate with increased recycling, underscoring the need for stricter emission controls and cleaner technologies. Conversely, greater forest coverage is associated with reduced recycled waste, highlighting the importance of forest conservation and sustainable land use. Economic disparities significantly impact recycling efforts, necessitating supportive policies for lower-income groups. Increased access to electricity correlates with higher waste generation, emphasizing the need for sustainable consumption practices. Although income inequality correlates with recycling rates, it is not a significant predictor, indicating the necessity for broader economic and environmental policies. This study offers novel, comprehensive recommendations for advancing Thailand’s circular economy. Strategies include implementing emission controls, enhancing forest conservation, promoting economic empowerment, encouraging sustainable consumption, and developing integrated policies. These recommendations aim to address identified challenges and support sustainable growth in alignment with circular economy goals.

Analysis and Future Projections of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Hindon River Basin, India Using the CA-Markov Model

Land use and land cover change is a significant issue in emerging countries. The enormous rate of population growth, industrialization, and urbanization is responsible for these developments. Monitoring and mapping of changes in land cover and land use is essential to the sustainable development and management of the area. The study attempts to track changes in LULC pattern for the years 2002, 2013, and 2023 in the Hindon River Basin, a major tributary of the Yamuna River, using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques. Images obtained from Landsat data were employed to extract historical land use and land cover maps. Additionally, the CA-Markov model was implemented to forecast future land use and land cover patterns. This study examines the historical and predicted LULC in the area. Field observations and site-specific interviews were used to confirm and determine the ground realities. High-resolution images were used to evaluate the accuracy of the classified map. According to the results, the agricultural land decreased from 60.98% in 2002 to 54.70% in 2050, while built-up areas increased from 12.95% to 21.25% during the same period. By 2050, vegetation is predicted to increase to 2.58%, whereas surface water, fallow land, barren areas, and dry water bodies are predicted to decrease to 0.58%, 18.87%, 1.20%, and 0.83%, respectively. The rapid pace of urbanization is facilitating economic growth within the country; however, this development is occurring at the expense of the natural landscape, which subsequently diminishes the overall quality of human life. In order to maintain sustainable development in the Hindon Basin, proper urban planning is essential. Important policy implications for the sustainable management of land use and conservation in the Hindon River basin are highlighted by the study’s research and findings.

Unveiling the nexus of scientific plans and real-world outcomes: A comparative analysis of land use optimization and agent-based simulation results in a natural landscape

Sustainable land management requires balancing the socio-economic needs of local communities with land conservation. Effective land management programs hinge on how well plans align with the demands and actions of land users in natural landscapes. This study aimed to create optimized land use plans for a Jahan-Nama protected area in Iran as the initial step, followed by simulating stakeholder plans and conducting a comparative analysis. A combination of compromise programming and a simulated annealing algorithm, alongside an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate stakeholder preferences, was employed for land use optimization. The study compared the outcomes of eight optimized scenarios that considered both socio-economic needs (social, economic) and environmental sustainability (environmental), along with stakeholder preferences reflected in multi-objective scenarios with varying priorities and a single-use livestock grazing scenario. Findings revealed that the grazing scenario (single-use) offered the highest employment rate (201 individuals) within the study area, but had the lowest economic efficiency (profitability ratio: 13.38). Additionally, the grazing scenario exhibited the highest water consumption (42,200 L/day) and the highest erosion rate compared to the other scenarios. Conversely, the beekeeping and ecotourism scenario emerged as the most economically efficient (profitability ratio: 46.31) with the lowest water consumption (23,000 L/day). Among the scenarios examined, the highest level of agreement was observed for the simulated sites chosen by beekeepers and the beekeeping and ecotourism (BTP) scenario (Kappa = 0.176). Conversely, the economic scenario (EC) had the lowest agreement with the beekeepers' selected sites (Kappa = 0.135). In terms of ecotourism, the results indicated the highest agreement between the tourists' sites and the ecotourism and recreational scenario (Kappa = 0.332 in single-agent mode and 0.405 in multi-agent mode). On the other hand, the livestock grazing scenario had the lowest level of agreement with the tourists' selected sites (Kappa = 0.282 in single-agent mode and 0.362 in multi-agent mode).

Socio-Economic and Environmental Interactions in the Maasai Mau Forest Kenya: A Comprehensive Household Survey Analysis

Maasai Mau Forest contains a diversity of flora and fauna, which are a source of livelihood for the local communities and provide various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is under threat from illegal subsistence farming in the Mau catchment and its surrounding areas due to anthropogenic activities leading to deforestation. The main objective of the study was to look at socioeconomic and environmental contexts of the households to inform sustainable land management (SLM) and conservation efforts. A descriptive cross-sectional research design was employed with a study area located in the Maasai Mau Forest region, Narok County, Kenya, which comprises of communities living within and around the Maasai Mau Forest. The study participants included Maasai communities, with a study population being mainly household-headed in the Maasai Mau Forest, which mainly depended on agriculture and animal farming for their livelihoods. A multi-stage sampling approach was also used in selecting the sampling units, such as villages, which were then further stratified into different areas or locations depending on the boundaries. The final sample size comprised of 385 households. Data were collected using semi-structured household questionnaires. Data was analyzed by the software SPSS using frequencies and percentages for nominal data and means for numeric data. About 59.5% of the respondents were women, a higher proportion compared to male-headed households of 76.1%. The major source of education of respondents was primary education (49.9%) followed by secondary education (29.6%) while only 14% had no formal education. Sources of income included crop farming (37.4%); livestock production (28.2%) followed by casual employment (15.8%). About 77.9% of the households had monthly incomes of below KES 15,000. Land ownership was freehold with 97.7% of the land in the freehold status and an average of a freehold land size at 1.4 acres. Most households kept various livestock including cattle (71.7%), poultry (12.5%) followed by other livestock kept. Crop production declined from the past years; with maize (96.4%) and beans (90.9%) being the main crops grown followed by potatoes (30.6%) and wheat (29.8%). Food security was a main concern with 54% of households indicating a downward trend in crop production over time. The survey objectives were met, showing that there are challenges with socio-economic issues, resource base, agricultural productivity and food security impacting the Maasai Mau Forest. However, there are opportunities for investing in sustainable agriculture and enhancing community involvement in conservation. The study recommended an integrated conservation approach that addressed the economic related issues, improved sustainable farming practices and enhanced community involvement, by: Improving land use planning and its management; Improving agricultural productivity and increasing market access; and Increasing food and water security to support improved sustainability of the Maasai Mau Forest Ecosystem.

The Bare Island Bird Sanctuary and the Myth of Indigenous Consent: Land Theft and Conservation in British Columbia, 1912–16

In 1913, the Royal Commission on Indian Affairs (rcia) for the Province of British Columbia (also known as the McKenna-McBride or Indian Commission) ruled that an island reserve of the Tsawout and Tseycum First Nations of the W̱SÁNEĆ should be surrendered and sold to the province for the purposes of a bird sanctuary. In accordance with both the federal Indian Act and assurances repeatedly made at meetings with Indigenous leaders, the commission sought consent for the sale from what was then the Saanich Band of Indians. To their surprise and consternation, the W̱SÁNEĆ said no, becoming the only First Nation to successfully withhold approval and reject a decision of the royal commission. While the Bare Island Bird Sanctuary was never created, the provincial and federal governments subsequently colluded to change the law and break their promise, and, in 1920, the recommendations of the rcia’s General Report were enacted entirely without Indigenous consent. The campaign for the Bare Island Bird Sanctuary is a study of the micro-dynamics of land dispossession; an examination of the violence of a thousand cuts that brought about settler-colonial jurisdiction over Indigenous land. The failure of the Bare Island Bird Sanctuary is the exception that proves the rule, illustrating how conservation and consent were both subordinated to the settler governments’ efforts to distribute Indigenous territory profitably amongst themselves.

Optimizing Conservation Planning: An Integrated Approach to Cost-Effective Biodiversity and Carbon Sequestration Management in Yunnan Province, China

This study introduces an innovative, integrated approach to optimizing conservation planning in Yunnan Province, China. By maximizing the synergistic benefits of threatened species protection and carbon sequestration while minimizing economic costs, the research identifies regions with the highest conservation cost-effectiveness. This is achieved by combining species distribution models (SDMs) for threatened species, carbon sequestration capacity estimates, and local economic data through an input-output (I-O) model at 1 kilometer resolution. The study highlights key regions within Yunnan—particularly in the northwestern areas of Shangri-la and Nujiang prefectures—as offering significant ecological benefits at relatively low opportunity costs. These findings provide a scalable framework for policymakers to prioritize regions for protected area (PA) expansion, thus enhancing conservation outcomes while minimizing financial expenditures. The proposed methodology improves conservation investments' cost-effectiveness and supports broader conservation and sustainable land management goals. This research underscores the necessity of integrating multiple ecological and economic factors to address the urgent challenges of biodiversity loss.

Organic fertilizer-mediated cultivated land conservation and pollution source control in agricultural ecosystem, Northeast China

Organic fertilizer-mediated cultivated land conservation and pollution source control in agricultural ecosystem, Northeast China

Soil seed bank resilience in passively restored endangered Sand Fynbos following a century of pine plantations

Societal Impact StatementEcosystems are rapidly being transformed, pushing us towards irreversible losses and even extinctions. The Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims to curb biodiversity decline. An intriguing solution lies in seed banks—where plants store seeds in the soil. Restoration efforts can revive lost ecosystems by leveraging these seed banks. In the fynbos of South Africa, this study found that it is possible to bring back ecosystems that were lost as long ago as 100 years if conditions are right. Managers can achieve best results by applying a dry season prescribed burn following removal of the driver of degradation (e.g. pine plantations or invasions).Summary Soil‐stored seed banks are a critical evolutionary strategy for plants as they can stabilize population dynamics in response to environmental fluctuations such as droughts and natural disturbances such as fires, thus improving ecosystem resilience. This study aimed to assess resilience during the first restoration cycle of endangered Sand Fynbos following pine harvesting and a prescribed burn in South Africa. We compared above ground populations and soil‐stored seed bank composition and focused on six perennial fynbos focal species in five 1 m2 plots. All six species are obligate reseeders with soil‐stored seed banks but represent a variety of important fynbos growth forms and seed types. We found that native soil‐seed bank density following over a century of plantation forestry and 10 years after the first fynbos restoration burn was comparable to, or exceeded, densities measured in other fynbos studies, especially seed banks of alien‐invaded fynbos ecosystems. The early years following pine harvesting and a restoration burn likely provide a pest‐ and predator‐free window of opportunity in which plants may re‐establish and flourish. Our results show that even for old forestry plantation areas, ecological restoration to the historic vegetation community is feasible, where there is retained seed bank resilience, through a combination of passive and active restoration methods. Ecological restoration in cases where soil seed banks persist is therefore a viable and critically important method to attain 30% conservation of terrestrial land in ecosystems with less than 30% remaining, as part of the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Adapted RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for invasive Sus scrofa in Mexico

Climate change is a common factor that contributes to the growth or decline of animal populations. The present study, conducted using the Species Distribution Model, highlights the fact that despite the recognized negative impact of wild boar (Sus scrofa) on semi-natural areas and agricultural systems worldwide, the species remains poorly studied. According to projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, increased clusters of wild boar abundance are expected to emerge around fragmented species assemblages by 2070. Sus scrofa is an extremely destructive and rapidly spreading invasive species whose movement appears to be facilitated by humans. As a consequence, many endemic plants are threatened with extinction. Biological corridors between fragments with poor conservation status should be linked to priority areas for adequate protection. The creation of preserved landscapes in territories separated from semi-natural ecosystems is recommended. Additionally, these measures can help mitigate the negative impact of S. scrofa on local biodiversity. Continuous monitoring and adaptive management strategies will be crucial for long-term conservation of the affected areas. Environmental protection efforts must prioritize the restoration of natural habitats and the implementation of strict regulations to control the spread of this invasive species. Collaborations between conservation organizations, governments, farmers, and local communities are essential to ensure effective wild boar management and the preservation of arable land and forests. Moreover, public awareness campaigns about the environmental impact of wild boar and the importance of conservation efforts are critical for garnering broader support.

Land use land cover change as a casual factor for climate variability and trends in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Climate change and land use dynamics are critical issues facing many regions worldwide, particularly in developing countries. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their impact on climate variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia, from 1994 to 2024. Utilizing multispectral satellite imagery from Landsat 5, 7, and 8, along with meteorological data from five weather stations, LULC classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform. To analyze climatic variability and trends, the Mann–Kendall trend test, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Temperature Index (STI) were employed. The findings indicate a significant decline in forest cover, with an accelerated annual loss of approximately 4681.2 hectares between 2014 and 2024. Concurrently, agricultural land expanded by about 1141 hectares annually, and urban areas grew by 24.3 hectares per year in recent years. Seasonal mean rainfall variation showed significant declines in the upper catchment, with Bega (p = 0.004, Sen’s slope = − 3.819 mm), Belg (p = 0.006, Sen’s slope = − 7.972 mm), and Kiremt (p = 0.005, Sen’s slope = − 7.117 mm), while the lower catchment experienced a notable increase during the Belg season (p = 0.025, Sen’s slope = 6.424 mm), highlighting uneven water availability across the watershed. Furthermore, pronounced warming trends were observed in the upper catchment (Bega: p = 0.002, Sen’s slope = 0.029; Belg: p = 0.001, Sen’s slope = 0.030; Kiremt: p = 0.004, Sen’s slope = 0.018), with moderate warming noted in the middle catchment during the Kiremt season (p = 0.020, Sen’s slope = 0.016). These LULC changes have significantly impacted climate variability, emphasizing the critical influence of human activities on regional climate dynamics. This study underscores the urgent need for sustainable land management and conservation strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion.

Identification of Ecological Hotspots Using the Eco-track: Case of Keoladeo National Park, Bharatpur, India.

Ecological conservation and sustainable land management are vital endeavors in the face of rising anthropogenic pressures and habitat deterioration. Accurate and effective evaluation techniques are essential for identifying regions that are of ecological relevance and concern. The present research introduces an innovative approach using geospatial tools to detect natural hotspots and deficits within a landscape. The research incorporates six essential ecological parameters, namely spatial variability, vegetation health, road network connectivity, fragmentation, biological richness, and habitat areas, obtained from existing literature studies. These parameters indicate the overall health of ecosystems and the extent of biodiversity present, which are crucial for developing effective strategies for ecological planning. The research project aims to use geospatial applications to identify the "ecological rich", "ecological moderate" or "ecological deficit" areas in the study area and to establish a model framework for automating the geospatial analysis. The resulting map offers a comprehensive and practical depiction of the ecological condition of the landscape, facilitating decision-makers in strategically allocating resources for conservation and restoration initiatives. The importance of this research resides in its capacity to streamline and automate what was previously a time-consuming and labor-intensive procedure. This innovative approach empowers conservationists, land managers, and policymakers with a powerful tool "Eco-track' to identify and prioritize ecological hotspots and deficits, ultimately fostering more effective and targeted efforts in preserving the natural heritage.

Historical and legal aspects of compensation for losses of agricultural production

The relevance of the topic is stipulated by the need to study the historical and legal aspects of the institute of compensation for losses of agricultural production which was proposed in Soviet times and concerned agricultural land. The introduction of this institute was aimed at increasing agricultural production by involving as much of the State’s land fund as possible. This approach necessitated the inclusion in Soviet legislation of a certain range of provisions that, on the one hand, ensured the preferential allocation of land plots for agricultural use, and, on the other hand, established legal restrictions and obstacles to reducing the area of agricultural land used for non-agricultural purposes. This approach was implemented at the subordinate level by adopting a number of union and republican resolutions. Subsequently, Article 46 of the Land Code of the Ukrainian SSR (1970) enshrined the relevant legislative provisions, which not only regulated relations on compensation for losses, but also laid the foundation for the priority of agricultural land, which allowed for the preservation of agricultural land. The next stage in the regulation of relations regarding compensation for losses of agricultural production is associated with the adoption of the Land Code of the Ukrainian SSR of 1990, which, along with compensation for losses of agricultural production, additionally regulated compensation for losses of forestry production, expanded the list of grounds for compensation for losses, and also provided that the funds received as compensation for losses shall be used exclusively for the development of new lands, improvement of soil fertility and productivity of forest lands, and improvement of the forestry fund. It is emphasized that the current Land Code of Ukraine (2001) has regulated in detail and systematically the relations arising from the compensation of losses of agricultural production. The procedure for compensation for such losses provides for compensation to society for the negative socio-economic and environmental consequences arising from the transfer of agricultural land to other categories. However, recent legislative activity in this area has demonstrated a gradual depreciation of agricultural land as an object of special protection. In particular, the provision on compensation for losses of agricultural production was removed from Chapter 36 of the Land Code of Ukraine, which means that the change of the designated purpose of agricultural land is carried out without compensation for losses of agricultural production, etc. This indicates, at least, that the institution of compensation for losses of agricultural production has achieved the goal set when it was introduced, and that it has expanded opportunities for attracting investments with a view to rapidly rebuilding Ukraine.

A mixed method approach for analyzing drivers of land use land cover change in the Northwestern Ethiopian highlands.

This study gives empirical evidence on the drivers of land use change by conducting a qualitative assessment and then using time series data to quantify the relationship between land use land cover change and factors that cause the change. Vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables were used to analyze the time series data. The findings revealed demographic and environmental factors were the primary causes of land use and land cover change. Population growth was found among the key drivers for losses of the natural vegetation on the one hand and rehabilitation of bare lands and grazing lands on the other hand. Despite its pressure on the natural vegetation, the increase in population contributes to a productive labor force for improving land management through rehabilitating degraded grazing lands, implementing soil and water conservation measures, and planting trees on degraded lands. This implies that population growth can be an opportunity or a threat for sustainable natural resources management, depending on how the available labor force is used. Climatic factors like maximum temperature and precipitation were also important causes of change in land use land cover. The study has important contributions to improving land use practices through designing appropriate land resources management policies.

Land degradation vulnerability modelling for landscape restoration planning in Eastern DR Congo using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geospatial techniques

Land degradation is a major issue for attainment of sustainable development in Eastern DR Congo. This study aims to assess and model the spatial pattern of land degradation vulnerability (LDV) in this region through the application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial techniques by using the Kalehe territory as a case study. LDV has been defined as the resultant of three components: the exposure to erosion risk, the sensitivity associated with biophysical factors, and the adaptability associated with socioeconomic factors of vulnerability. These factors were weighted using the EasyAHP plugin and multisource open spatial data to obtain the LDV model. This model was validated using the frequency ratio of physical land degradation features. The LDV map was obtained through the application of the weighted overlay technique in QGIS. The results indicated that about 32% of the territory is prone to high to very high vulnerability, representing the hotspot of LDV. The developed model has an overall accuracy of 77.8% in predicting the area with high to very high LDV. Thus, it can be used during land conservation planning to identify the priority areas for implementation of landscape restoration initiatives at the territorial level in Eastern DR Congo.

Between a rock and a hard place: the privatization or preservation of the commons in Spain in the long 19th century

Abstract This text reviews the transformations of the commons in Spain in the long 19th century based on the notion of “bundles of rights”. The contention is that the process of change was prompted by the clashes between alternative models, beginning with privatization or preservation and culminating in a complex landscape of property rights. In terms of privatization, several alternatives were advocated and eventually implemented, depending on the social groups that promoted them and their balance of power. In stylized form, two options that while not necessarily incompatible stand in opposition: on the one hand, privatization in the form of large property units with the land concentrated in the hands of an elite of creditors and investors, and on the other, small plots involving broader social participation and greater access. In turn, the preservation of communal lands did not rule out the privatization of their use, in some cases in favor of large industrial companies in the timber, resin, and cork sectors, and on other occasions in the service of social inclusion policies through the distribution of plots for their cultivation by the rural proletariat.

Modeling future projections of land use and land cover in the Kakataibo territory

Abstract. The Amazon region is undergoing a dynamic and extensive transformation from forested areas to human-altered landscapes, significantly impacting forests and indigenous territories. This research aims to create future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios by examining past trends (2014–2022) and predicting future patterns for 2030, focusing on the Kakataibo territory in central Peru. Using the Dinamica EGO modelling platform, we projected LULC changes based on historical data and various predictive factors. Our findings reveal notable forest loss between 2014 and 2022, with this trend likely continuing through 2030. Within indigenous territories, deforestation was less severe, with a reduction of 30,247.4 hectares compared to the more significant loss in non-indigenous areas. This underscores the vital role these territories play in mitigating forest loss. However, the rapid expansion of agriculture and infrastructure within these regions signals an urgent need for stronger legal protections to halt further deforestation. This study highlights the critical importance of indigenous territories in forest conservation and offers valuable insights for future land management and conservation strategies in the Amazon.

RUSLE model insights for soil conservation and sustainable land use in semiarid environments

RUSLE model insights for soil conservation and sustainable land use in semiarid environments

Forest fates: Unraveling the peri-urban social-ecological trajectories in Mexico City's conservation land.

Peri-urban areas provide multiple ecosystem services, but face critical challenges, including deforestation, unplanned urban sprawl, and environmental pollution and degradation. To address these issues, environmental public policy instruments have been implemented. This paper aims to investigate the social ecological trajectories of a peri-urban area of Mexico City and the role of environmental public policy instruments in addressing land use change. Focusing on four watersheds of the southern periphery of the city, we analyze land use change drivers through neural networks and Markov chains, and we develop two land use scenarios for the next 20years: one characterized by business as usual and another with a more restrictive land use regime. Our findings show that infrastructure drivers are the most critical factor overall, when combined with the historical social ecological trajectory of the study area. The impact of environmental public policy instruments on future trajectories demonstrates their potential to decrease deforestation. The results provide insights for the integrated territorial planning of peri-urban areas with similar social ecological dynamics and developing context.

Enhancing decision-making for climate change mitigation and sustainable urban growth

Uncontrolled urban expansion presents significant challenges to green spaces, leading to increased land surface temperature, and carbon emissions. This study emphasizes the importance of predicting urban growth, monitoring LST, and assessing green space suitability to mitigate these impacts in Bojnourd City, Iran. This research aims to enhance land use planning by employing the SLEUTH model and integrating landscape features to evaluate and compare urban growth scenarios. The study consisted of five main stages: monitoring LULC and LST changes, utilizing the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model for carbon stock mapping, assessing green space suitability, simulating urban growth scenarios up to 2050, and prioritizing scenarios using landscape metrics and TOPSIS. Five scenarios were analyzed: Low Carbon City, Compact Urban Growth, Historical Urban Growth, Uncontrolled Urban Growth, and Green City. Landscape metrics were utilized to assess the environmental consequences of each scenario. The results demonstrate that the Compact Urban Growth scenario, which focuses on land conservation, achieved the highest environmental sustainability score of 0.818, followed by the Green City scenario at 0.72, and the Low Carbon City scenario at 0.55. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the SLEUTH model in guiding urban planners toward decisions that promote sustainable, low-carbon urban development.