Shifts In Land Cover Research Articles

Revealing the dynamic effects of land cover change on land surface temperature in global major bay areas

Comparative studies across national boundaries on urban heat islands (UHI) are lacking, especially comparative analyses among globally important bay area urban agglomerations at different levels of urbanizations. Bay areas around the world are currently experiencing different stages of urbanization, and the transformation of urban land cover into thermal environments varies significantly. This study investigated the spatial-temporal changes of land cover change (LCC) and the land surface temperature (LST) in four major bay areas (including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), the New York Bay Area (NYBA), the Tokyo Bay Area (TBA), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area (GBA)) from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing correlation analysis and the multiscale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR), the goal was to understand how LCC impact the thermal environmental regionally. The results showed that: (1) The main shift in land cover involved a decrease in forested and cultivated area and an increase in impervious surfaces, with deforestation and agriculture conversion being major factors in this increase. The GBA gave a significant 112% rise in impervious surface during this period. (2) The LST trended towards higher, medium LST zones, closely linked with urban impervious surface expansion. (3) The MGWR model highlighted the direct non-stationary relationship between land cover alterations and LST effects. It showed that conversion to impervious surfaces, particularly from water and cultivated lands, markedly intensified LST, whereas water bodies and forests demonstrated a substantial capacity to mitigate LST. Urban planners were advised to mitigate LST elevations stemming from the transformation of forest lands and aquatic environments into impervious areas, a change notably prevalent in highly urbanized regions. This study provides valuable perspectives on balancing the management of urban thermal environments and urbanization processes.

Variability in land surface temperature concerning escalating urban development using thermal data of Landsat sensor: A case study of Lower Kharun Catchment, Chhattisgarh, India

Over the past few years, there has been a revitalized emphasis on comprehending the shifts in land cover and their implications for a range of environmental factors. This investigation seeks to analyze how changes in land surface temperatures (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), and alterations in land cover intersect within the lower Kharun catchment area. The primary dataset utilized in this study is for 2001 and 2021 Landsat 7 and 8, part of the Landsat program managed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), offer essential Earth observation data using their multispectral and thermal sensors which are designed to detect thermal radiation emitted from the Earth's surface. When these bands are properly processed, they enable accurate temperature measurements. Visual interpretation was conducted on these images, categorizing them into five specific classes of land cover these were vegetation, open land, settlement, waterbodies, and cultivation. Following this, spectral indices like NDVI and NDBI were calculated, and LST was derived using a single-channel algorithm. Subsequently, correlation analysis was utilized to explore the interconnectedness or mutual relationship among the spatial distribution of these parameters. Over the period from 2001 to 2021, the most significant changes in land use were observed in the settlement area and cultivation, which increased by 6.92 and 6.23 sq. km, respectively. Conversely, open land, vegetation, and waterbodies experienced decreases of 7.13, 5.56, and 0.46 sq. km, respectively. The patterns in which LST, NDBI, and NDVI are distributed, exhibited corresponding variations following changes in land cover. The observed alterations in LST, NDBI, and NDVI are believed to be primarily influenced by the expansion of built-up areas. A noticeable association suggests that as built-up areas increase, both NDBI and LST values typically rise.Furthermore, a correlation observed between LST with NDVI was negative, suggesting an inverse relationship between these parameters. On the other hand, the correlation of LST with NDBI observed was positive, indicating that these parameters exhibit a direct relationship. Overall, these findings seem to be complex and highlight the interactions between changing land cover and environmental parameters, underscoring the importance of understanding these relationships for effective land management and environmental monitoring.

Effect of Metro rail extension on flood risks of Bangkok Metropolitan Authority outskirt due to climate and land use land cover changes

ABSTRACT The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's expansion, driven by economic growth, includes extending Metro systems and altering land use. This transformation, especially noticeable near these routes, has led to shifts in land cover – reduced green spaces, increased impervious surfaces, and decreased water storage. These changes, coupled with denser population and higher waste-generation, have compromised drainage efficiency, amplifying flood vulnerability. This study focuses on Pink Line's 34.5-kilometre stretch from Khae Rai intersection along Tiwanon Road to Min Buri, aiming to evaluate Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) near the Metro line, identify critical influencing factors and propose mitigation strategies. The analysis divided the study area into five zones based on characteristics, evaluating FVI using population density (PO), drainage efficiency (DE), impervious ratio (IR), garbage management (GB), and pond area ratio (PA). FVI values ranged from 0.41 to 0.55. Sensitivity analysis showed minor FVI impacts at Lat Pla Khao and Ram Intra km.4 stations due to DE and IR, with reduced FVI at Khu Bon and Eastern Ring Road stations from PA and GB improvements. PA and IR enhancements consistently lowered FVI, while fluctuations were observed with GB and DE changes, with notable impacts at Min Buri Market Station. Understanding factor sensitivity aids in planning local mitigation-strategies.

Impact of Wildfires on Land Surface Cold Season Climate in the Northern High-Latitudes: A Study on Changes in Vegetation, Snow Dynamics, Albedo, and Radiative Forcing

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the occurrence of wildfires, especially in northern high latitudes, leading to a shift in land surface climate. This study aims to determine the predominant climatic effects of fires in boreal forests to assess their impact on vegetation composition, surface albedo, and snow dynamics. The influence of fire-induced changes on Earth’s radiative forcing is investigated, while considering variations in burn severity and postfire vegetation structure. Six burn sites are explored in central Alaska’s boreal region, alongside six control sites, by utilizing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived albedo, Leaf Area Index (LAI), snowmelt timing data, AmeriFlux radiation, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) land cover, and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) data. Key findings reveal significant postfire shifts in land cover at each site, mainly from high- to low-stature vegetation. A continuous increase in postfire surface albedo and negative surface shortwave forcing was noted even after 12 years postfire, particularly during the spring and at high-severity burn areas. Results indicate that the cooling effect from increased albedo during the snow season may surpass the warming effects of earlier snowmelt. The overall climate impact of fires depends on burn severity and vegetation composition.

Random Forest-Based Assessment of Mangrove Degradation Utilizing NDVI Feature Extraction in Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Mangrove ecosystems, vital for coastal biodiversity and protection, confront escalating degradation from human and natural influences. Addressing the imperative for precise degradation assessment, this study introduces a Random Forest-based technique, utilizing NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) feature extraction within a spatio-temporal framework. The principal aim is to establish a robust approach for evaluating mangrove degradation and land cover shifts. This involves extracting NDVI values from satellite images to monitor vegetation health and changes chronologically. Leveraging the Random Forest algorithm, acknowledged for managing intricate relationships and classifications, further enhances the methodology.By situating the approach spatio-temporally, degradation patterns and alterations in mangrove distribution are traced over time. The temporal progression of the study area is considered, affording a thorough degradation analysis. Outcomes affirm the method's efficacy, evidenced by a Cohen's Kappa Score of 0.96 denoting substantial agreement between predictions and observations. Remarkably high scores across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score (all at 0.97) underscore the model's precision in classifying mangrove degradation levels. The amalgamation of the Random Forest-based approach and NDVI feature extraction emerges as a valuable instrument for precise mangrove degradation assessment. The spatio-temporal analysis augments comprehension of degradation dynamics, pivotal for proficient mangrove management and conservation strategies.

Comprehensive Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Shifts from A Redd Perspective: A Case Study of Banepa Municipality, Nepal

This paper examines the dynamic changes in land use and cover in Banepa Municipality over three decades, from 1991 to 2021, using the remote sensing method within the REDD perspective. It uncovers an 11% surge in built-up areas and a 5% decline in forest cover, with minimal agricultural fluctuations (1%) and a substantial 7% decrease in barren land. Urgent concerns about ecological balance prompt a call for immediate REDD implementation.
 To address these issues, the study advocates for employing monitoring methods, including remote sensing, to evaluate forest and land resources. This data can inform comprehensive studies on the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, alongside feasibility and sectorial analyses, including cost-benefit assessments for effective land-use planning. The conclusion stresses the imperative need for planned urban development in Banepa to preserve open spaces, forests, and agriculture. This study provides vital insights into the intricate relationship between land-use changes and climate impact, emphasizing the urgency of sustainable development actions.

A practical exploration of land cover impacts on surface and air temperature when they are most consequential

Widespread shifts in land cover and land management (LCLM) are being incentivized as tools to mitigate climate change, creating an urgent need for prognostic assessments of how LCLM impacts surface energy balance and temperature. Historically, observational studies have tended to focus on how LCLM impacts surface temperature (T surf), usually at annual timescales. However, understanding the potential for LCLM change to confer climate adaptation benefits, or to produce unintended adverse consequences, requires careful consideration of impacts on both T surf and the near-surface air temperature (T a,local) when they are most consequential for ecosystem and societal well-being (e.g. on hot summer days). Here, long-term data from 130 AmeriFlux towers distributed between 19–71 °N are used to systematically explore LCLM impacts on both T surf and T a,local, with an explicit focus on midday summer periods when adaptive cooling is arguably most needed. We observe profound impacts of LCLM on T surf at midday, frequently amounting to differences of 10 K or more from one site to the next. LCLM impacts on T a,local are smaller but still significant, driving variation of 5–10 K across sites. The magnitude of LCLM impacts on both T surf and T a,local is not well explained by plant functional type, climate regime, or albedo; however, we show that LCLM shifts that enhance ET or increase canopy height are likely to confer a local mid-day cooling benefit for both T surf and T a,local most of the time. At night, LCLM impacts on temperature are much smaller, such that averaging across the diurnal cycle will underestimate the potential for land cover to mediate microclimate when the consequences for plant and human well-being are most stark. Finally, during especially hot periods, land cover impacts on T a,local and T surf are less coordinated, and ecosystems that tend to cool the air during normal conditions may have a diminished capacity to do so when it is very hot. We end with a set of practical recommendations for future work evaluating the biophysical impacts and adaptation potential of LCLM shifts.

Spatial modeling to understand the dynamics of land cover MODIS satellite data and Markov Chain

The ever-increasing economic and population growth closely relates to the change in land cover. As a region grows, the land cover shifts from forests to agriculture and further to developed areas. Such a gradual change occurs slowly; however, understanding the land cover dynamics is essential to regional planning, especially in developing regions, including Indonesia. Despite its importance, studies on land cover changes in developing regions lack a coherent dataset, as many studies are based on ad-hoc approaches, resulting in embedded uncertainties. An example is the land cover classification using LANDSAT data in many parts of the developing countries lacking consistency. As an alternative, the MODIS dataset is a relatively new dataset produced by NASA, presenting a standardized land cover dataset with a 500×500 m resolution at global coverage. Such a standardized dataset gives consistency in land cover dynamics and future projections. This study presents the potential of MODIS and its use case in understanding land cover dynamics in an urbanizing watershed, i.e., the Majalaya Watershed in West Java, Indonesia. The study presents the use of Markov Chain Analysis in understanding the tendency of changes between land cover classes. This study also indicates future research directions to enrich the topic further.

Instream sensor results suggest soil–plant processes produce three distinct seasonal patterns of nitrate concentrations in the Ohio River Basin

AbstractThe Ohio River Basin (ORB) is responsible for 35% of total nitrate loading to the Gulf of Mexico yet controls on nitrate timing require investigation. We used a set of submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzers located at 13 stations across the ORB to examine nitrate loading and seasonality. Observed nitrate concentrations ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 mg L−1 N in the Ohio River's mainstem. The Ohio River experiences a greater than fivefold increase in annual nitrate load from the upper basin to the river's junction with the Mississippi River (74–415 Gg year−1). The nitrate load increase corresponds with the greater drainage area, a 50% increase in average annual nitrate concentration, and a shift in land cover across the drainage area from 5% cropland in the upper basin to 19% cropland at the Ohio River's junction with the Mississippi River. Time‐series decomposition of nitrate concentration and nitrate load showed peaks centered in January and June for 85% of subbasin‐year combinations and nitrate lows in summer and fall. Seasonal patterns of the terrestrial system, including winter dormancy, spring planting, and summer and fall growing‐harvest seasons, are suggested to control nitrate timing in the Ohio River as opposed to controls by river discharge and internal cycling. The dormant season from December to March carries 51% of the ORB's nitrate load, and nitrate delivery is high across all subbasins analyzed, regardless of land cover. This season is characterized by soil nitrate leaching likely from mineralization of soil organic matter and release of legacy nitrogen. Nitrate experiences fast transit to the river owing to the ORB's mature karst geology in the south and tile drainage in the northwest. The planting season from April to June carries 26% of the ORB's nitrate and is a period of fertilizer delivery from upland corn and soybean agriculture to streams. The harvest season from July to November carries 22% of the ORB's nitrate and is a time of nitrate retention on the landscape. We discuss nutrient management in the ORB including fertilizer efficiency, cover crops, and nitrate retention using constructed measures.

Class dynamics and relationship between land-use systems and surface temperature in south-eastern Ghana

A fifty-year study of land cover changes in Ghana’s south-eastern region is conducted to identify major shifts and new avenues for justifiable growth and development. This study sought to assess the historical changes (1970–2020) associated with the region’s land use systems, topography and land surface temperature. It further investigated the relationship between some given remotely sensed variables using autocorrelation and geoinformatics. Findings proved socio-political and economic factors have caused massive shift in land cover and prevailing climatic conditions through increasing settlements and migration, the extensiveness of agriculture, poverty, unregulated and unreported logging of trees, small-scale mining intensification, and weak governance systems. We discovered that the natural vegetation had dramatically reduced (− 52.01%), whilst built-up (+ 406.05%), farmlands/shrubs (+ 86.47%), and waterbodies (+ 47.35) were faced with a drastic increase. Class contribution rates show built environment massively influenced land modification, compared to other surveyed classes. In light of the major influences observed, it can be concluded that dynamics in land-use systems caused a substantial drift in local temperature. Temperature and built-up index correlated strongly (R2 =0.959, p < .0001) , whilst depicting a negative association against vegetation (R2 =0.959, p < .0001) and water index (R2 = 0.958, p < .0001). Variance assessment proved that the linear correlation model for the understudied elements is suitable. The study provides policy guidance amid sustainability concerns on streamlining land use activities in development planning and preservation of forests and river ecosystems that protect flora and fauna to enhance biodiversity and sustainable use of land and water resources.

Sustaining the Terrestrial Biosphere in the Anthropocene

Many aspects of anthropogenic global change, such as shifts in land cover, the loss of biodiversity, and the intensification of agricultural production, threaten the natural biosphere. The implications of these specific aspects of environmental change are not immediately obvious; therefore, it is hard to obtain a bigger picture of what these changes imply and distinguish the beneficial from the detrimental, where human impact is concerned. In this paper, I describe a holistic approach that allows us to obtain such a bigger picture and use it to understand how the terrestrial biosphere can be sustained in the presence of increased human activity. This approach places particular emphasis on the free energy generated by photosynthesis—energy that is required to sustain both the dissipative metabolic activity of ecosystems and human activities (with the generation rate being restricted by the physical constraints of the environment). Thus, one can then identify two types of human influence on the biosphere and their resulting consequences: the detrimental effects caused by enhanced human consumption of this free energy and the beneficial effects that allow for more photosynthetic activity and, therefore, more dissipative activity within the biosphere...

Anthropogenic impacts on tidal creek sedimentation since 1900.

Land cover and use around the margins of estuaries has shifted since 1950 at many sites in North America due to development pressures from higher population densities. Small coastal watersheds are ubiquitous along estuarine margins and most of this coastal land-cover change occurred in these tidal creek watersheds. A change in land cover could modify the contribution of sediments from tidal creek watersheds to downstream areas and affect estuarine habitats that rely on sediments to persist or are adversely impacted by sediment loading. The resilience of wetlands to accelerating relative sea-level rise depends, in part, on the supply of lithogenic sediment to support accretion and maintain elevation; however, subtidal habitats such as oyster reefs and seagrass beds are stressed under conditions of high turbidity and sedimentation. Here we compare sediment accumulation rates before and after 1950 using 210Pb in 12 tidal creeks across two distinct regions in North Carolina, one region of low relief tidal-creek watersheds where land cover change since 1959 was dominated by fluctuations in forest, silviculture, and agriculture, and another region of relatively high relief tidal-creek watersheds where land-use change was dominated by increasing suburban development. At eight of the creeks, mass accumulation rates (g cm-2 y-1) measured at the outlet of the creeks increased contemporaneously with the largest shift in land cover, within the resolution of the land-cover data set (~5-years). All but two creek sites experienced a doubling or more in sediment accumulation rates (cm yr-1) after 1950 and most sites experienced sediment accumulation rates that exceeded the rate of local relative sea-level rise, suggesting that there is an excess of sediment being delivered to these tidal creeks and that they may slowly be infilling. After 1950, land cover within one creek watershed changed little, as did mass accumulation rates at the coring location, and another creek coring site did not record an increase in mass accumulation rates at the creek outlet despite a massive increase in development in the watershed that included the construction of retention ponds. These abundant tidal-creek watersheds have little relief, area, and flow, but they are impacted by changes in land cover more, in terms of percent area, than their larger riverine counterparts, and down-stream areas are highly connected to their associated watersheds. This work expands the scientific understanding of connectivity between lower coastal plain watersheds and estuaries and provides important information for coastal zone managers seeking to balance development pressures and environmental protections.

Impacts of atmospheric CO2 increase and Amazon deforestation on the regional climate: A water budget modelling study

AbstractGlobal air temperature increase has caused changes in the global climate such as droughts, floods and severe events. Land cover shifts and the increase in greenhouse gas emissions can intensify these impacts. Therefore, the application of Specific Warming Level 2 (SWL2) technique has been considered to evaluate the global warming issue in various climate scales, which may induce different responses in the climate system. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of a doubling of current atmospheric CO2 concentrations as well as the influence of deforestation of the Amazon Forest on the climate of South America. In this study, the CPTEC‐BAM1.2 global model was used to simulate these processes. The first scenario of simulations considered doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration (2XCO2 = 776 ppm) and the second scenario is the total conversion of the Amazon Forest to pasture (DEF). In the third scenario both CO2 and deforestation are considered simultaneously (2XCO2 + DEF). A control simulation considers the natural Amazon Forest shape and a steady CO2 concentration of 388 ppm. Results suggest that the temperature increased in all scenarios, the highest increment in the 2XCO2 + DEF experiment (5.4°C in 2XCO2 + DEF, 5.1°C in DEF and 3.2°C in 2XCO2). The model simulated drastic negative rainfall anomalies in each of three scenarios (2XCO2 + DEF: −2.1 mm day−1, 2XCO2: −1.3 mm day−1 and DEF: −0.9 mm day−1). Besides less precipitation and evapotranspiration, shifts in moisture transport were identified in each of the three scenarios. The effect of doubled atmospheric CO2 produces results similar to deforestation for hydrological water budget changes, and total pasture conversion may intensify such changes.

Investigating the Effects of Land Use Change on Subsurface, Surface, and Atmospheric Branches of the Hydrologic Cycle in Central Argentina

AbstractSince the 1970s, land cover in central Argentina has shifted away from perennial crops and grasses toward annual crops, largely soy. In this study, we use observations and modeling to understand how this shift in land use has affected the sub‐surface, surface, and atmospheric fluxes of moisture and energy in a flat agricultural area. We analyze the flux tower data from a paired site at Marcos Juarez in central Argentina during the period of the RELAMPAGO field campaign (2018–2019). When compared to perennial alfalfa, the observations over soy show lower evapotranspiration (ET) and specific humidity, higher sensible heat, higher outgoing shortwave radiation, and soil temperature. Water table (WT) depth is shallower below the soy than the alfalfa sites. To better understand the long‐term temporal behavior from 1970s to present, the Budyko framework is used to show that the trends in ET cannot be explained by climate variables alone. We then use the Noah‐MP land surface model calibrated at both soy and alfalfa sites. Long‐term simulations of the calibrated model suggests that ∼95% of precipitation is evaporated in the alfalfa site with negligible recharge and runoff. Contrarily in the case of soy, ET is about 68% of precipitation, leaving nearly 28% for recharge and 4% for runoff. Observed increases in streamflow and decreases in WT depth over time are likely linked to shifts in land cover. Furthermore, the partitioning of net radiation shifts from latent heat to sensible heat resulting in a 250% increase in Bowen ratio (from 0.2 to 0.7).

Spatio - temporal landcover dynamics and environmental impact in coal mine area of Korba district (Chhattisgarh)

Detection of digital change is the approach that helps to assess the changes associated with land use and land cover resources. Detection of landuse/landcover change in the form of maps and statistical data is very useful for land spatial planning, management and utilisation. In order to research land use / land cover shifts, Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) were used. The goal of this study is to detect changes in land use between 1929 and 2009 using satellite images of 1990, 1999 and 2009 TM map data and 2009 Google Earth Imagery and topographic map surveys of India. The study developed a five-year (1929,1970,1999,2005,2009) land use/land cover map of the Korba district of Chhattisgarh to detect changes in the residential area, mining area, water bodies, farm lands, and forest areas in particular. The objective of study is to prepare land use/land cover map for different time periods, analyse the land use changes and evaluate the socio – economic implications of predicted change. Landuse changes have been detected by image processing method in ArcGIS9.3. Monitoring of landuse/landcover changes help to study impact of increase in industrialization on environment and to plan development activities and frame development policies. During this period of 80 years the forest area decreased nearly by half of that in 1929 from 4622.82km2 in 1929 to 2241.66km2 in 2009. The agriculture area increased during the period 1929 -1970 showing that deforested land was converted into agriculture land during this period from 1970 onwards mines and barren area increased from nil to 527.72 km2 in 2009. Residential area showed a drastic increase during the period 1970 -1999 due to migration of people from nearby areas to coal fields in search of livelihood.

Vegetation Expansion on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change

The natural shift in land cover from non-vegetated to vegetated land is termed as vegetation expansion, which has substantial impacts on regional climate conditions and land surface energy balance. Barrens dominate the northwestern Tibetan Plateau, where vegetation is predicted to expand northwestward with the ongoing climate warming. However, rare studies have confirmed such a forecast with large-scale vegetation monitoring. In this study, we used a landcover dataset, classified according to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program criteria, to examine previous model-based predictions and the role of climate on the expansion rate across the plateau. Our results showed that shrublands, open forests, grasslands, and water bodies expanded while evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests, croplands and barrens shrank during the period 2001–2018. Vegetation expanded by 33,566 km2 accounting for about 1.3% of the total area of this plateau and the land cover shifting from barrens to grasslands was the primary way of vegetation expansion. Spatially, the vegetation expanded northwestward to lands with colder, drier, and more radiation in the climate. Increasing precipitation positively correlated with the vegetation expansion rate for the arid and semi-arid northwest Tibetan Plateau and warming contributed to the vegetation expanding in the semi-humid southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our results verified the predictions of models and highlighted the “greening” on barrens in recent years.

Assessing Urban Land Use Change in New Braunfels, Texas from 2013 to 2020

Urban cities are the major drivers of economic growth and development. Economic growth and development however results in considerable land cover land use dynamics. This study assessed the dynamics in land cover land use that have occurred in New Braunfels, Texas in the last 7 years (2013-2020) to observe areas in the city that had experienced considerable shifts in land cover and land use. 30-meter resolution Landsat images were used to examine possible changes in land cover land use. New Braunfels was observed to have experienced significant changes in land use especially in developed areas. This change can be attributed to the influx of people into the city, contributing to the need for increased urban development. Analysis of this study shows that about 16% (about 553 hectares) of forest land cover class and 28% (about 1139 hectares) of grassland class in time 1 (August 31, 2013) changed to built-up land use class in time 2 (November 5, 2020). A limitation to this study was that of the spatial resolution of images used. Higher spatial resolution images could impact the producers, users, and overall accuracy assessment. Results from this study can aid in supporting better decision-making for sustainable urban development and climate change mitigation.

Detecting Changes in River Flow Caused by Wildfires, Storms, Urbanization, Regulation, and Climate Across Sweden

AbstractChanges in river flow may appear from shifts in land cover, constructions in the river channel, and climatic change, but currently there is a lack of understanding of the relative importance of these drivers. Therefore, we collected gauged river flow time series from 1961 to 2018 from across Sweden for 34 disturbed catchments to quantify how the various types of disturbances have affected river flow. We used trend analysis and the differences in observations versus hydrological modeling to explore the effects on river flow from (1) land cover changes from wildfires, storms, and urbanization; (2) dam constructions with regulations for hydropower production; and (3) climate‐change impact in otherwise undisturbed catchments. A mini model ensemble, consisting of three versions of the S‐HYPE model, was used, and the three models gave similar results. We searched for changes in annual and daily stream flow, seasonal flow regime, and flow duration curves. The results show that regulation of river flow has the largest impact, reducing spring floods with up to 100% and increasing winter flow by several orders of magnitude, with substantial effects transmitted far downstream. Climate changed the total river flow up to 20%. Tree removal by wildfires and storms has minor impacts at medium and large scales. Urbanization, on the contrary, showed a 20% increase in high flows also at medium scales. This study emphasizes the benefits of combining observed time series with numerical modeling to exclude the effect of varying weather conditions, when quantifying the effects of various drivers on long‐term streamflow shifts.

Land Surface Phenologies and Seasonalities in the US Prairie Pothole Region Coupling AMSR Passive Microwave Data with the USDA Cropland Data Layer

Land surface phenologies and seasonalities in the US Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) were characterized using land surface variables derived from the coarse spatial resolution (25 km) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) blended data for 2003 to 2016 linked with the optically based USDA NASS Crop Data Layer (CDL) at a much finer spatial resolution. Two transects of AMSR pixels—one in east-central North Dakota and the other in eastern South Dakota—were selected for analysis. The AMSR data were grouped earlier (2003–2005, 2007) and later (2013–2016) to emphasize temporal change and to avoid data discontinuity in 2011–2012 and a major drought in 2006. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test on the CDL data revealed that area in grasslands and wetlands strongly decreased in both transects, while corn and soybean coverage strongly increased. In crop-dominated sites, the AMSR vegetation optical depth (VOD) time series caught the early spring growth, ploughing, and crop growth and senescence. In contrast, the VOD time series at grassland dominated sites exhibited a lower peak but extended growth period. Crop-dominated sites had significantly higher amplitude VODs in both periods and transects. Based on the paired two-sample t-test, neither the peak VOD amplitude nor the peak VOD timing measured in accumulated growing degree-days was significantly different between temporal groups in the North Dakota transect. In contrast, in South Dakota, both the peak VOD amplitude and its timing were significantly different with shifts to later peak timing during the 2013–2016 period. In addition, in South Dakota but not North Dakota, there were significantly earlier shifts in the timing of peak growing degree-days and peak precipitation water vapor. Both spatial and temporal changes in AMSR land surface variables are linked to shifts in land cover along the South Dakota transect as revealed in the CDL data. More research is required to understand the dynamics evident in the passive microwave time series.

Rethinking Landscape Conservation: Linking Globalized Agriculture to Changes to Indigenous Community-Managed Landscapes

Community-managed landscapes have valuable conservation potential. In particular, indigenous community management has slowed deforestation. However, globalized agriculture is an underlying driver of changes to indigenous community-managed landscapes. Our objective is to explain a hypothesized global-to-local causal pathway that stems from processes of globalized agriculture and changes to indigenous community-managed landscapes. The global-to-local pathway involves a nested hierarchy of political–economic processes, specifically land and natural resource privatization, commodification, and acquisition. At the local landscape level, we focus on changes to land tenure, livelihoods, land use, and land cover. Changes to land tenure involve a shift away from community and toward individual ownership and management. Concurrently, livelihoods shift away from subsistence and toward market-oriented activities. Subsequently, land use shifts away from small-scale extensive and toward large-scale intensive crop cultivation, away from diverse crop cultivation and toward monocropping, and away from crop toward livestock farming. Ultimately, land cover shifts away from diverse agro-forested and toward homogeneous deforested lands. We illustrate our approach using ejidos, a type of community-managed lands, in Yucatán, México as an exploratory example. We use descriptive statistics to initially assess the shift in ejido land tenure, from community to individually parcelized systems, and the shift in a principal subsistence livelihood and land use activity, from maize cultivation to cattle rearing. We highlight that individually parceled areas within ejidos are more deforested than community-managed areas. In all, we urge landscape conservation scientists to more fully consider not just local actions but also impacts stemming from globalized agriculture and to advance the breadth and depth of more extensive studies and analyses.