Lake Wobegon Research Articles

The Lake Wobegon effect in China: An examination of self-estimate bias among Chinese psychotherapists.

The Lake Wobegon effect in China: An examination of self-estimate bias among Chinese psychotherapists.

Why Are All of the Children Perceived to Be Above Average? Stakeholders and the Lake Wobegon Effect in Attitudes toward Public Schools

AbstractThe Lake Wobegon effect, named for the fictional town where all children are above average, is well documented in surveys about education. Respondents tend to rate their local public schools higher in quality than schools overall in the state or nation, even despite contrary evidence. One potential explanation for this disconnect is a psychological construct known as “illusory superiority.” While the superiority aspect of illusory superiority is well studied, the illusory nature of these attitudes typically is assumed rather than empirically demonstrated. Further, the predictors of these attitudes also merit exploration. We seek to address both of these points. We hypothesize that illusory superiority in the context of attitudes toward public education may be driven in part by self-interest, and thus may be more likely to be found among those with the biggest stake in local schools, such as parents of students, homeowners, and longtime residents. Using survey data from Massachusetts, we find a factual basis for illusory superiority by comparing perceptions of local school performance on standardized tests to actual scores. We also model predictors of illusory superiority, including property ownership, length of residency, and having children enrolled in public schools, and the role that illusory superiority may play in school ratings. We then assess the effects of overstatement of test scores on attitudes toward a key educational issue – whether to increase taxes to provide additional funding for local schools.

Understanding and managing the Self-Wise during a healthcare crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought an interesting yet worrisome phenomenon to the fore. A segment of the population, which we call the Self-Wise, seems to exhibit an inflated sense of self-expertise relative to domain experts, which – combined with a lack of trust in the latter – leads them to ignore or reject expert advice. We argue and demonstrate that this phenomenon is distinct from other “illusory superiority” phenomena, most notably Dunning-Kruger and Lake Wobegon. Three studies with US participants provide compelling evidence for the existence of the Self-Wise phenomenon. In the context of COVID-19, its behavioral consequences are non-compliance with expert-based COVID-19 guidelines and measures (e.g., wearing a mask and getting vaccinated). The studies also provide insight into additional characteristics of the Self-Wise, which can be used for identification and targeting purposes. We tested the effectiveness of two tailored interventions that aimed at reducing this segment's “illusory superiority” and (re-)establishing their trust in medical experts. The interventions proved effective in terms of reducing the “illusory superiority” of the Self-Wise, and generally enhanced the participants' intention to comply with COVID-19 guidelines. However, to substantially change the non-conforming COVID-19 behavior of the Self-Wise likely requires stronger and sustained mitigation strategies or interventions.

The Lake Wobegon effect is real: All general surgery residents appear to be better than average

• Percentile ranking of residents by faculty is extremely skewed to the right. • Subjective faculty evaluations correlate with objective standardized exam scores in junior but not upper-level residents. • Faculty tend to rank residents above average; the inclusion of objective standardized scores in determining resident progression remain useful. Resident evaluations remain controversial. Metric systems are employed to objectify evaluations. Our institution adopted the question “Relative to all other trainees that I have supervised over my career, I place this individual's performance in the following percentile” with the goal of objectifying the evaluations. We report the distribution and the correlation of this value to other evaluation parameters. Retrospective single-institution review of general surgery resident evaluations(2008-2020). Demographic characteristics, level of training and internal evaluation variables were collected. Percentile distribution and association between subjective and objective measures were analyzed. 3117 evaluations(116 residents) were reviewed. 96% had the percentile question answered. Faculty ranked 68% of residents at or above 80 th percentile. Faculty subjective evaluation on residents’ overall performance and technical skills correlate with resident objective assessment scores in PGY-1 and 2 but not in PGY-3 to PGY-5. Rank failed to produce a bell-shaped curve, remaining right-skewed; indicating grade inflation. The lack of association between variables indicates that both assessments remain useful for residency programs. Work is needed to benchmark evaluations, ensuring proper feedback about performance.

Me to Me: Make comparisons with yourself, not with others

In the fictional town of Lake Wobegon, “all the children are above average.” When I was in college, though, where you stood compared to the class average was no joking matter. In fact, in the science courses I was taking, it was standard practice to make clear that exactly half of the students in any class were below average.

Some notes on ‘Populism’

The article criticizes the idea that we can find the ‘real meaning’ of populism and focuses instead on six psychological attitudes and political programmes that the term ‘populism’ can invoke: Lake Wobegon populism, short-termism, Trumpism, the attraction of simple solutions, responses to inequality, and direct democracy. While conceptually distinct, these are often found together and can reinforce each other.

Compensation and risk: A perspective on the Lake Wobegon effect

Abstract We investigate an alternative economic channel of a positive relationship between risk and compensation, as documented by Cheng et al. (2015). We propose that when information asymmetry exists, firms generally seek to use compensation as a signal of their CEOs’ ability. The risks arising from information asymmetry tend to encourage firms to pay higher compensation to their CEOs in a pattern of financial incentives we call the “Lake Wobegon effect”. However, when individual firms pursue complete signaling, a higher equilibrium compensation level can be achieved. This paper explores the factors that give rise to the “Lake Wobegon effect” and the learning process by which this effect can be counterbalanced over time (Hayes and Schaefer, 2009).

Leaving Lake Wobegon: firearm-related education and training for medical and mental health professionals is an essential competence

PurposeFirearm-involved violence and suicide in the USA, often collectively referred to as “gun violence,” has been labeled a public health problem and an epidemic, and even an endemic by some. Many lawmakers, community groups, mainstream media outlets and professional organizations regularly address gun-related issues and frequently associate firearm violence with mental health. As a result, these groups often set forth positions, engage in discussions and promote policies that are at least partially based on the widely held but incorrect assumption that medical and mental health professionals are either inherently equipped or professionally trained to intervene with their patients and reduce gun deaths. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachFurthermore, notable proportions of medical and mental health professionals self-report a level of comfort engaging in firearm-specific interventions that is often disproportionate to their actual education and training in the area. This type of overconfidence bias has been referred to as the Lake Wobegon Effect, illusory superiority, the above average effect, the better-than average effect or the false uniqueness bias. While medical and mental health professionals need to serve on the front line of firearm-involved violence and suicide prevention initiatives, the vast majority have not actually received systematic, formal training on firearm-specific issues.FindingsTherefore, many lack the professional and cultural competence to meet current and potential future in regard to addressing gun violence. In this paper, the authors discuss empirical studies that illustrate this reality and a novel model (i.e. the Know, Ask, Do framework) that medical and mental health professionals can use when firearm-related issues arise. In addition, the authors set forth considerations for clinicians to develop and maintain their professional and cultural competence related to firearms and firearm-related subcultures.Originality/valueThis paper provides empirical and conceptual support for medical and mental health programs to develop formal education and training related to guns, gun safety and gun culture. A framework is provided that can also assist medical and mental health professionals to develop and maintain their own professional and cultural competence.

Collaborative Governance for the Prevention and Response to MERS after the 2015 and 2018 MERS Outbreaks

After defining collaborative governance, this study identifies governance problems and resolutions. This study claims: Governance actors should collectively formulate clearer regulations for disease prevention and response. Governments need to prevent the Lake Wobegon Effect and invest to recruit medical experts to grow the number of medical experts available in the field. Governments need to organize their employees’ labor, compensate them for their sacrifice, and manage their stress. Governments should collaborate with private organizations and the military to mobilize their collective resources quickly. To support this collaboration, governments need to expand their budgets via various routes. Guided by facilitative leadership, domestic and international agencies should collaborate and communicate to expand and diversify their information and financial support.

A New Look at Lake Wobegon: Who’s in Your Canoe?

We re-examine the Lake Wobegon effect for reported GPA using data from students enrolled in principles of economics courses. Students are well known to over-report their GPA on surveys. In addition to standard measures of the mean difference, we extend the analysis to understand the distribution of response error using quantile regression analysis. We also examine how survey conditions impact response error. Our findings suggest that response error is more complicated than simple over-confidence. Students respond differently throughout the distribution of GPA and respond differently when seated near friends. Modeling response error should take these findings into account.

No Lake Wobegon in Beijing? The impact of culture on the perception of relative ranking

SummaryA prominent example in the literature on relative ranking is the “better‐than‐average” effect: that people have a general tendency to view themselves in a positive light and think they are above average. The current paper evaluates whether such biases are specific to culture. In Experiment 1, Americans exhibited a larger better‐than‐average effect than Chinese. In Experiment 2, the study was designed to understand what drives this cultural difference. Estimates of relative standing for Americans relied more on perceptions of their own ability compared to those for Chinese participants. Relatively structured questions (experimental manipulation of the question frame) facilitate Americans making better judgments but not Chinese, supporting the hypothesis that relative‐ranking estimates are influenced by the degree to which other (vs. self) information is used cross‐culturally.

Editorial: A Quiet Week in Lake Wobegon?

As the English summer finally decided to arrive and the cold damp days become distant memories, the ‘Editorial Office’ relocated to its temporary summer seaside annex. The new base is a peculiarly English large static caravan in a small East Yorkshire town called Hornsea. This is a town that was known worldwide for its pottery—items of high function and some style, but the production of which has long since stopped. Now it is a sleepy coastal town with a small fishing industry, mainly exporting to mainland Europe. Not much else happens—well certainly not at speed. One of us grew up as an avid follower on the radio of another sleepy town and could not wait to hear the weekly monologue of the long-running ‘Prairie Home Companion’, based on a supposedly fictitious town of Lake Wobegon and dreamt up by Garrison Keeler, whose opening words, ‘Well, it’s been a quiet week in Lake Wobegon, Minnesota …’, seemed to characterise a rural town and idyll that time has since forgotten. 1 Hornsea, too, has a lake, affectionately known as ‘The Mere’, which it boasts is the largest lake in Yorkshire—although not much happens here either. Well it may have been a quiet week in our summer annex and doubtlessly in Lake Wobegon, but elsewhere drama continues. Selecting at random a few events, we start with the BREXIT vote, which may prove to be one of those defining moments in UK history in which, contrary to most informed opinion, the UK population voted narrowly to leave the European Community. The vote, as surprising as it was divisive, was split across age and social groups, with young people generally behind the remain campaign and older people generally the leave, with the middle classes in remain and the working class for leave. The effects of BREXIT will be felt at every level and time will be the judge of the wisdom of the decision to even put it to the vote. We now have a change of prime minister and Cabinet, and a quite uncertain future. The implications will be felt for social work as student exchanges, qualification equivalence, freedom of movement of social workers and research funding all need to be renegotiated.

Lake Wobegon’s guns: Overestimating our gun-related competences

The Lake Wobegon Effect is a general tendency for people to overestimate their own abilities. In this study, the authors conducted a large, nationally-representative survey of U.S. citizens to test whether Americans overestimate their own gun-relevant personality traits, gun safety knowledge, and ability to use a gun in an emergency. The authors also tested how gun control attitudes, political identification, gender, and gun experience affect self-perceptions. Consistent with prior research on the Lake Wobegon Effect, participants overestimated their gun-related competencies. Conservatives, males, and pro-gun advocates self-enhanced somewhat more than their counterparts but this effect was primarily due to increased gun experience among these participants. These findings are important to policymakers in the area of gun use, because overconfidence in one’s gun-related abilities may lead to a reduced perceived need for gun training.

Observer Perceptions of Overall System Quality – the Lake Wobegon Effect

Objective: For three different system categories—fabricated artifacts, built environments, and software interfaces, to compare and contrast observer rankings of the overall quality of a selected topic or artifact pertaining to that category, relative to rankings of the quality of different specific attributes of the same topic. Method: A paired samples t-test was applied to ascertain the degree of statistical similarity between the overall quality rankings, and the average specific attribute quality rankings. Result: For each of the three system categories, the grouped average for overall quality rankings is higher than the grouped average for averaged specific attribute quality rankings. Conclusion: Two alternative interpretations of the results are offered, informed by either Gestalt psychology or by neurobiological reference to cognitive versus affective decision-making. Understanding of the basis of the findings will require further research. Application: Usability analysis assumes that evaluating the quality of specific attributes of a selected design will predict overall design quality. It can be argued that findings reported here call into question widely accepted assumptions about the general utility of usability analysis.

The Lake Wobegon Effect: Why Most Patients Are at Below-Average Risk.

This commentary discusses the paradoxical finding that most patients are at below-average risk and can expect to experience less-than-average benefits from a treatment. This “Lake Wobegon effect,” ...

The Right Ingredients

Docēre, the Latin root for doctor, means to teach. At the heart of what we do as physicians is teaching; we teach our patients, their families, and our future physicians. Why do we devote so much time to education? No matter how well we diagnose and treat, if patients and families do not understand their treatment, it may be unsuccessful. No matter how knowledgeable and skillful we are, if we do not nurture the next generation, key knowledge, skills, and values will disappear. Disciplines Education | Medical Education This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/gse_pubs/255 The Right Ingredients-Essential If You Want To Bake The Cake Right! Aditee P Ambardekar, MD Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine Assistant Professor of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania ambardekara@email.chop.edu Stanton Wortham, PhD Judy & Howard Berkowitz Professor and Associate Dean Graduate School of Education University of Pennsylvania

The Lake Wobegon Effect: Are All Cancer Patients above Average?

When elderly patients face a terminal illness such as lung cancer, most are unaware that what we term in this article "the Lake Wobegon effect" taints the treatment advice imparted to them by their oncologists. In framing treatment plans, cancer specialists tend to intimate that elderly patients are like the children living in Garrison Keillor's mythical Lake Wobegon: above average and thus likely to exceed expectations. In this article, we use the story of our mother's death from lung cancer to investigate the consequences of elderly people's inability to reconcile the grave reality of their illness with the overly optimistic predictions of their physicians. In this narrative analysis, we examine the routine treatment of elderly, terminally ill cancer patients through alternating lenses: the lens of a historian of medicine who also teaches ethics to medical students and the lens of an actuary who is able to assess physicians' claims for the outcome of medical treatments. We recognize that a desire to instill hope in patients shapes physicians' messages. We argue, however, that the automatic optimism conveyed to elderly, dying patients by cancer specialists prompts those patients to choose treatment that is ineffective and debilitating. Rather than primarily prolong life, treatments most notably diminish patients' quality of life, weaken the ability of patients and their families to prepare for their deaths, and contribute significantly to the unsustainable costs of the U.S. health care system. The case described in this article suggests how physicians can better help elderly, terminally ill patients make medical decisions that are less damaging to them and less costly to the health care system.

Commentary: "the Lake Wobegon effect, a natural human tendency to overestimate one's capabilities" (Wikipedia).

H aving read the article by Wolf and Wolf in this issue of The Milbank Quarterly, the oncologist part of me asks, “Where’s the beef?” This is typical care: Mrs. Wolf, an eightyyear-old former smoker but healthy woman, is found (serendipitously) to have a resectable lung cancer and is treated with a curative resection based on her physiological age rather than her chronological age, as suggested by most guidelines (Hurria 2013). Indeed, based on the evidence available when she was diagnosed (Henschke et al. 2006), screening is now recommended by the U.S. Preventive Health Services Task Force (Humphrey et al. 2013). Appropriately, Mrs. Wolf declined adjuvant chemotherapy, based on a somewhat informed choice. Then when her cancer recurred, she had a good response to chemotherapy, which lasted for at least four months. We have known for twenty years that compared with the best supportive care, chemotherapy gains the average person a few months of life and increases, from about 20 percent to about 50 percent, the chance of being alive one year later (ASCO 1997). The chemotherapy that Mrs. Wolf received, carboplatin and pemetrexed (Alimta R ©), is as successful as any other (Incollingo 2013; Patel, Socinski, and Garon 2012), and she likely did not have any nausea or lose her hair. Her recurrence was treated with FDA-approved erlotinib (Tarceva R ©) for second-line use in her type of lung cancer (NCI 2013). She got brain radiation and neck spine radiation, with fairly typical side effects. In

American Futures: The Shortcomings of the Governing Class

Americans’ perception of the future bounces between two contradictory visions. One is that the country is drifting toward decline. Polls report widespread belief that the younger generation of Americans will be worse off than their parents, that U.S. influence in the world is weakening, and that our governing institutions are incompetent and corrupt. At the same time, a majority thinks that although the country may be going to hell, they and their families will prosper. According to a Pew survey, 63 percent of Americans think that forty years from now the standard of living of the average family will not improve, with 36 percent thinking it will get even worse. At the same time, 64 percent are optimistic that they personally and their families will be better off. Indeed, like the citizens of Lake Wobegon, over 70 percent of Americans believe that their income is above average. This perceived disconnect between one’s personal fate and one’s country’s surely helps explain the low level of public outrage in this post-crash era of high unemployment and falling wages.

Greatness [Ethically Speaking

We don't strive to be mediocre. If your boss called you mediocre in your performance report, you would not be happy. Mediocre just means average, so is it bad to be average? Everyone reading this column is far above average in intelligence, income, and good looks. We must all be from Lake Wobegone, MN, where Garrison Keiler says, “all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.”