Lake Tahoe Basin Research Articles

Escaping the heat: Climate change and visitation to the Lake Tahoe basin

The Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada is a popular destination for visitors. As temperatures rise globally, visitation to this climatic refuge is likely to grow. Increased visitation contributes to increases in vehicle miles of travel (VMT), congestion, crashes, emissions, and deteriorating travel experiences at Lake Tahoe, while also contributing to friction between visitors and residents. Policymakers are exploring ways to mitigate these problems, but one key uncertainty to first address is exactly how many visitors are in the Tahoe Basin at a given time and how and where they travel while there. It is also unclear how visitation is influenced by heat in the nearby lower-elevation population centers during the summertime, which is when visitation is the highest. This study thus seeks to 1) quantify day and overnight visitors in the Tahoe Basin, 2) estimate VMT attributable to each group, and 3) model the influence of hot temperatures nearby on visitation and VMT within the Tahoe Basin. We use existing survey data, network GIS analysis, and publicly available weather data to model the relationship between particularly hot conditions and vehicle flow through two of the region’s primary entry points and estimate in-basin VMT attributable to travel through them. We evaluate several ways of defining “hot conditions” nearby and find that between 500 and 1,200 additional vehicles enter the basin at these two points alone, generating an additional in-basin daily VMT of about 12,000 to 33,000 when hot conditions exist. Quantifying the magnitude of the challenge enables managers to design and scale interventions to mitigate impacts.

Use of fecal DNA to estimate black bear density in an urban‐wildland interface

AbstractAmerican black bears (Ursus americanus) commonly habituate to human resources in regions of urban‐wildland interface, which frequently leads to human‐wildlife conflict. Monitoring bear densities is important to inform management, yet traditional density estimation methods may not be practical in such areas. Minimally or noninvasive genetic tools offer a potential solution, but the most common sampling method employs barbed‐wire hair snares and scented lure, which can pose dangers to people and pets. Fecal DNA, which is less invasive, has been used successfully for many species, but has not been commonly used for ursids in the United States. We conducted a pilot study from July–September 2018 to assess the feasibility of using fecal DNA in a spatial capture‐recapture analysis to estimate black bear density in the Lake Tahoe Basin in California, a region of high‐human density compared to other urban‐wildland interface localities in the United States, where bears pose significant nuisance problems. The use of fecal DNA allowed us to sample in both urban and wildland areas with minimal disturbance to the surrounding community. Based on 142 genotyped samples from 101 distinct individuals, we estimated an abundance of 0.84 bears/km2(95% CI = 0.58–1.21 bears/km2), which was similar to a previous capture‐recapture estimate in the study area and represents one of the highest densities reported for black bears. More generally, our findings indicated that fecal DNA capture‐recapture approaches provide a feasible means of estimating black bear densities in areas where hair sampling may be impractical.

Water quality and forest restoration in the Lake Tahoe basin: impacts of future management options

Land managers in the Lake Tahoe basin are considering increasing the use of prescribed fire and forest thinning to restore conditions that will be more resilient to wildfires. However, such restorative treatments also constitute disturbances that could increase sediment and nutrient loads. We examined whether the water-quality impacts from future treatments are likely to be lower compared to the potential impacts from future wildfires under various climate change scenarios. We applied an online interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in combination with a landscape change model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of different combinations of thinning and prescribed burning on fine sediment (< 2 mm), very fine sediment (< 16 µm), and phosphorus over time. First, we generated results based on historic weather data for soil disturbance conditions, including: an undisturbed baseline, a uniform thinning treatment; a uniform prescribed fire treatment; and uniform low, moderate, and high wildfire burn severity. Residual ground cover declined in that order, and expected loads of sediment and phosphorus increased. We then combined the estimated loads from hillslopes with projected management-disturbance regimes across each decade of the next century. We found that expected sediment and phosphorus loads were lower under the scenario that emphasized thinning, whereas scenarios that increased prescribed burning resulted in loads that were comparable to scenarios that involved less treatment. These results reflect the finding from the WEPP analysis that prescribed burning is expected to reduce ground cover more than is thinning. Our analysis supports efforts to increase fuel reduction treatments to mitigate future wildfires, but it also suggests that preventative treatments may not avoid a long-term decline in water quality as wildfires increase with climate change.

Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California

White, A. M., T. G. Holland, E. S. Abelson, A. Kretchun, C. J. Maxwell, and R. M. Scheller. 2022. Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Ecology and Society 27(2):31. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13301-270231

The management costs of alternative forest management strategies in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Wildfires play an important ecological role in fire-adapted landscapes throughout California. However, there is a growing awareness that large wildfires in increasingly populated areas incur costs that may not be acceptable to society. Various forest management strategies have been proposed that seek to reduce the prevalence and severity of wildfires in areas where these costs are high. In this study we estimate the financial costs of various hypothetical forest management scenarios in the Lake Tahoe West landscape of Northern California. The objective of the study was to quantify trade-offs and cost constraints that would affect the feasibility of each scenario. The scenarios ranged from minimal forest management to several options for more intensive fuels management that relied to varying degrees on thinning and prescribed burning. We assessed stand-level costs associated with thinning, prescribed burn management, and timber and biomass transport, as well as revenues from timber and energy chips sold. Using modeled fire occurrence and severity metrics, we also used historical wildfire data to estimate plausible fire suppression costs. Our findings suggest that increased forest management, through the use of either hand/mechanical treatments or prescribed fire, can reduce fire suppression costs relative to recent practices by more than US$400,000 per year. These more intensive management scenarios differ in their cost-effectiveness. Scenarios that increase the use of prescribed fire appear to be the more cost-effective management interventions available with annual costs roughly half as much as a scenario focused on increased hand and mechanical thinning. The results are useful for understanding the financial implications of modifying forest management practices designed to lower the private and social costs of wildfire in the region.

Frequency of disturbance mitigates high-severity fire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada

Because of past land use changes and changing climate, forests are moving outside of their historical range of variation. As fires become more severe, forest managers are searching for strategies that can restore forest health and reduce fire risk. However, management activities are only one part of a suite of disturbance vectors that shape forest conditions. To account for the range of disturbance intensities and disturbance types (wildfire, bark beetles, and management), we developed a disturbance return interval (DRI) that represents the average return period for any disturbance, human or natural. We applied the DRI to examine forest change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We specifically investigated the consequences of DRI on the proportion of high-severity fire and the net sequestration of carbon. In order to test the management component of the DRI, we developed management scenarios with forest managers and stakeholders in the region; these scenarios were integrated into a mechanistic forest landscape model that also accounted for climate change, as well as natural disturbances of wildfire and insect outbreaks. Our results suggest increasing the frequency of disturbances (a lower DRI) would reduce the percentage of high-severity fire on landscape but not the total amount of wildfire in general. However, a higher DRI reduced carbon storage and sequestration, particularly in management strategies that emphasized prescribed fire over hand or mechanical fuel treatments.

Modeling the Risk Reduction Benefit of Forest Management Using a Case Study in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Across the United States, wildfire severity and frequency are increasing, placing many properties at risk of harm or destruction. We quantify and compare how different forest management strategies designed to increase forest resilience and health reduce the number of properties at risk from wildfire, focusing on the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We combine landscape change simulations (including climate change, wildfire, and management effects) with scenarios of current and plausible fuel treatment activities and parcel-scale fire risk analysis. Results suggest that more aggressive fuel treatment activities that treat more area on the landscape, whether through mechanical and hand thinning or prescribed fire, dramatically lower the fire probability in the region and lead to a corresponding lower risk of property loss. We estimate that relative to recent practices of focusing management in the wildland–urban interface, more active forest management can reduce property loss risk by 45%–76%, or approximately 2600–4900 properties. The majority of this risk reduction is for single family residences, which constitute most structures in the region. Further, we find that the highest risk reduction is obtained through strategies that treat a substantially greater area than is currently treated in the region and allows for selective wildfires to burn for resource objectives outside of the wildland–urban interface. These results highlight the importance of more active forest management as an effective tool in reducing the wildfire risk to capital assets in the region.

Comparing smoke emissions and impacts under alternative forest management regimes

Smoke from wildfires has become a growing public health issue around the world but especially in western North America and California. At the same time, managers and scientists recommend thinning and intentional use of wildland fires to restore forest health and reduce smoke from poorly controlled wildfires. Because of the changing climate and management paradigms, the evaluation of smoke impacts needs to shift evaluations from the scale of individual fire events to long-term fire regimes and regional impacts under different management strategies. To confront this challenge, we integrated three widely used modeling tools to analyze smoke impacts across different management scenarios within a future of changing climate. We applied this multi-stage framework to a case study analysis in the Lake Tahoe basin, in which managers proposed scenarios that involved varying levels of hand- and mechanical-thinning treatments and prescribed fires. We began by using the LANDIS-II model to project daily emissions of fine particulate matter from wildland fires under various climate and management scenarios over a century. We also modeled dispersion and health impacts based upon individual wildfire events selected to be representative of different management scenarios. For those events, we modeled smoke conveyance to downwind communities from representative future fires using the BlueSky smoke dispersion model. Lastly, we estimated human health impacts resulting from the modeled smoke using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP model. Our results suggest that emissions from wildfires will substantially increase in future decades; however, increased levels of forest thinning could substantially reduce those emissions and harmful health impacts from large wildfires. We also found that increased use of prescribed burning could reduce the health impacts associated with large wildfires but would also increase the frequency of low levels of emissions. Furthermore, the modeling results suggested that individual prescribed fires could have substantial health impacts if dispersion conditions are unfavorable. Our results suggest that increased management is likely to yield important benefits given expected increases in wildfire activity associated with climate change. However, there remain many challenges to projecting the effects of alternative management regimes, especially ones that involve substantial increases in intentional burning.

Forest management under uncertainty: the influence of management versus climate change and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA.

Forest management under uncertainty: the influence of management versus climate change and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA.

Evaluating pathways to social and ecological landscape resilience

Rapid environmental changes challenge the resilience of wildlands. The western portion of the Lake Tahoe Basin in California is an important ecological and cultural hotspot that is at risk of degradation from current and future environmental pressures. Historical uses, fire suppression, and a changing climate have created forest landscape conditions at risk of drought stress, destructive fire, and loss of habitat diversity. We prospectively modeled forest landscape conditions for a period of 100 years to evaluate the efficacy of 5 unique management scenarios in achieving desired landscape conditions. Management scenarios ranged from no management other than fire suppression to applying treatments consistent with historical fire frequencies and extent (i.e., regular and broadscale biomass reduction). We developed a decision support tool to evaluate environmental and social outcomes within a single framework to provide a transparent set of costs and benefits. Results illuminated underlying mechanisms of forest resilience and provided actionable guidance to decision makers. Sixteen attributes were assessed in the model after assigning weights to each. We found that removing forest biomass across the landscape, particularly when accomplished using extensive fire-based removal techniques, led to highly favorable conditions for environmental quality and promoted overall landscape resilience. Environmental conditions resulting from extensive fire-based biomass removal also had nominal variation over time, in contrast with strategies that had less extensive and/or used physical removal techniques (e.g., mechanical thinning). Our analysis provides a transparent approach to assess large datasets with complex and interacting variables. Ultimately, we aim to provide insights into the complexities of maintaining optimal conditions and managing landscapes to promote ecosystem resilience in a changing world.

Strategic decision support for long-term conservation management planning

Forward thinking conservation-planning can benefit from modeling future landscapes that result from multiple alternative management scenarios. However, long-term landscape modeling and downstream analyses of modeling results can lead to massive amounts of data that are difficult to assemble, analyze, and to report findings in a way that is easily accessible to decision makers. In this study, we developed a decision support process to evaluate modeled forest conditions resulting from five management scenarios, across 100 years in California’s Lake Tahoe basin; to this end we drew upon a large and complex hierarchical dataset intended to evaluate landscape resilience. Trajectories of landscape characteristics used to inform an analysis of landscape resilience were modeled with the spatially explicit LANDIS-II vegetation simulator. Downstream modeling outputs of additional landscape characteristics were derived from the LANDIS-II outputs (e.g., wildlife conditions, water quality, effects of fire). The later modeling processes resulted in the generation of massive data sets with high dimensionality of landscape characteristics at both high spatial and temporal resolution. Ultimately, our analysis distilled hundreds of data inputs into performance trajectories for the five modeled management scenarios over a 100-year time horizon. We then evaluated each management scenario based on inter-year variability, and absolute and relative performance. We found that management scenarios with a greater emphasis on proactive biomass reduction outperformed management approaches with minimal biomass reduction. These results, and the process that led to them, provided decision makers with insight into forest dynamics based on a rational, transparent, and repeatable decision support processes.

Valuing the impacts of forest disturbances on ecosystem services: An examination of recreation and climate regulation services in U.S. national forests

The increasing frequency and severity of forest disturbances challenge the sustainable provision of ecosystem services by forests, and this is true even in regions with net forest growth. The combination of ecosystem service losses from forest disturbances that are immediate as well as the slower post-disturbance process of forest regrowth could result in long-lasting social, economic, and environmental costs. Using economic and geospatial analysis, we estimate the value of recreational services losses due to drought and quantify the social cost of carbon emissions due to wildfires and bark beetle damage in three National Forests in the Sierra Nevada region, California (Inyo National Forest, Tahoe National Forest, and Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit). Our findings indicate that recent droughts resulted in an annual reduction of about $73 million, $36 million, and $15 million for Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit, Tahoe, and Inyo National Forests, respectively. Tree biomass loss due to wildfires and bark beetle damage generated around 10 Mt CO2 of total emissions from 2003 and 2012. The estimated cumulative social costs of such emissions were around $0.8 million for fire and $2.4 million for bark beetle (using a 3% discount rate for related climate change damage). The social costs almost tripled under extreme climate damage projections. Our analysis could inform adaptation and management strategies to conserve or enhance the health and function of publicly managed forests, and to protect their flow of ecosystem services for present and future generations.

Tree-ring climate response of Jeffrey pine in the Cascade Creek Watershed, Northern California

Understanding the forest response to ongoing climate change is crucial in forest management strategies under anticipated climate adversity. To understand the retrospective growth dynamics of Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. &amp;amp; Balf.), tree-ring chronology from the subalpine forest in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California was correlated with air temperature, precipitation, and Palmar Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The years 1757, 1782, 1886, 1859, 1876, 1920, 1929–30, 1977, 1988–89, 2001–02, 2008, and 2014 were some of the years with noticeable low growth. There was robust growth in 1747–49, 1792, 1828, 1866–68, 1913, 1969, 1984, 1998, and 2011. Ring width index (RWI) and basal area increment showed a recent growth increase. Climate-growth response analysis revealed the growth-inhibiting influence of the hot and dry summer. More pronouncedly, warm and wet winter was found to be conducive to tree growth in the following year. A significant growth correlation with the previous year climate (stronger with PDSI) and its absence in current spring may be suggestive of potential growth stimulation by predicted warmer and longer growing season in the future. However, since the RWI chronology consisted mostly of mature trees and because the old cambial age tends to have signal divergence, further studies incorporating younger trees and cohabitant species would provide deeper insights into the growth-climate response.

Soil Phosphorus Speciation and Availability in Meadows and Forests in Alpine Lake Watersheds With Different Parent Materials

In the Lake Tahoe Basin in California and Nevada (USA), managing nutrient export from watersheds into streams and the lake is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed to improve water quality. Leaching and runoff of phosphorus (P) from soils is a major nutrient source to the lake, and P loading potential from different watersheds varies as a function of landscape and ecosystem properties, and how the watershed is managed. In this research, P availability and speciation in forest and meadow soils in the Lake Tahoe Basin were measured at two watersheds with different parent material types. Soils developed on andesitic parent materials had approximately twice as much total P compared to those developed on granitic parent materials. Regardless of parent material, organic P was 79–92% of the total P in the meadow soils, and only 13–47% in the forest soils. Most of the soil organic P consisted of monoester P compounds, but a significant amount, especially in meadow soils, was diester P compounds (up to 30% of total extracted P). Water extractable P (WEP) concentrations were ~10 times greater in the granitic forest soils compared to the andesitic forest soils, which had more poorly crystalline aluminosilicates and iron oxides that retain P and thus restrict WEP export. In the meadow soils, microbial biomass P was approximately seven times greater than the forest soils, which may be an important sink for P leached from upland forests. Results show that ecosystem and parent material are important attributes that control P speciation and availability in the Lake Tahoe Basin, and that organic P compounds are a major component of the soil P and are available for leaching from the soils. These factors can be used to develop accurate predictions of P availability and more precise forest management practices to reduce P export into Lake Tahoe.

Interregional lake basin management: the case of Lake Tahoe

The article provides an overview of the environmental conservation development in the lake Tahoe basin, located on the border of two US States. The geographical feature of the location made the process of managing economic activities on the lake more complex. The article highlights the role of local environmental organizations that contributed to public debate on lake pollution issues, which resulted in the formation of a unique Agency managing regional planning in the lake’s catchment area. The historical overview of the main events related to the activities of the Agency and environmental organizations in the region is also presented. The analysis shows that the organization of a single governing body has not brought rapid results in environmental protection; the contradictions between economic growth and environmental protection remain. Regulatory experience in the Lake Tahoe Basin shows that many restrictive measures can be challenged in litigation under the rule of law. The results also show that the achievement of the set environmental indicators, even if the Agency is established, is problematic; and the measures taken can lead to a significant reduction in the number of permanent local population and stagnation in certain sectors of the local economy.

Longer-term impacts of fuel reduction treatments on forest structure, fuels, and drought resistance in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forests have undergone significant changes in structure and composition and are increasingly vulnerable to altered disturbance regimes and climate-related extreme events. Fuel reduction treatments, including thinning and follow-up surface fuel treatments, can reduce this vulnerability by creating forest structural and woody fuel conditions that not only allow forest stands to mitigate wildfire, but also alleviate individual tree stress. However, direct observations that quantify these longer-term effects are lacking. This study compares observed changes in forest structure, tree species composition, and downed woody fuel loads across three distinct time periods: pre-treatment, 1 yr post-treatment, and 10 yr post-treatment. Additionally, using tree ring data, we assessed whether treatments affected individual tree resistance to a severe statewide drought (2012–2015). Thinning treatments were able to effectively reduce tree density and basal area, increase the retention of both larger-sized and shade-intolerant trees, and mitigate tree mortality. Treatments were also associated with significantly lower coarse woody fuel and snag basal area. Snag basal area and time since treatment were related to the accumulation of fine and coarse woody surface fuel loads. Tree ring information indicated that treatments improved drought resistance as well, especially in units with lower residual live basal area. This study complements previous studies on fuel reduction thinning by demonstrating that these treatments have lasting effects on forest structure, which also confers a degree of drought resistance.

Simulated Fire Behavior and Fine-Scale Forest Structure Following Conifer Removal in Aspen-Conifer Forests in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Quaking aspen is found in western forests of the United States and is currently at risk of loss due to conifer competition at within-stand scales. Wildfires in these forests are impactful owing to conifer infilling during prolonged fire suppression post-Euro-American settlement. Here, restoration cuttings seek to impact wildfire behavior and aspen growing conditions. In this study, we explored how actual and hypothetical cuttings with a range of conifer removal intensity altered surface fuel and overstory structure at stand and fine scales. We then simulated wildfires, examining fire behavior and effects on post-fire forest structures around aspen trees. We found that conifer removal constrained by lower upper diameter limits (&lt;56 cm) had marginal effects on surface fuel and overstory structure, likely failing to enhance resource conditions sufficiently to sustain aspen. Increasing the diameter limit also led to a higher likelihood of fire spread and a higher rate of spread, owing to greater within-canopy wind speed, though crown fire activity decreased. Our simulations suggest heavier treatments could facilitate reintroduction of fire while also dampening the effects of wildfires on forest structure. Cutting specifications that relax diameter limits and remove a substantial portion of conifer overstory could better promote aspen restoration and mitigate fire hazard.

Retrospective analysis of burn windows for fire and fuels management: an example from the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

BackgroundIn fire-adapted ecosystems of the western USA, prescribed fire is an essential restoration and fuel reduction tool. There is general concern that, as the fire season lengthens, the window for conducting prescribed burns will contract unless management changes are made. This could occur because a number of conditions must be met before prescribed fire can be used in the field, and those are most common during the spring and autumn when the need for fire suppression response has been historically less. To assess patterns of potential prescribed burning feasibility, this study evaluated three conditions: (1) permission to burn as granted by air quality regulators; (2) weather within burn plan prescription; and (3) availability of operational and contingency resources. Our 21-year analysis (1999 to 2019) combines three independent datasets for a daily comparison of when prescribed fires could have been implemented (henceforth, burn windows) in the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) and analyzes seasonality, interannual variability, and trends.ResultsBurn windows were most frequent during spring, followed by autumn, with the fewest burn windows during the summer and winter. Burn windows lasting multiple days occurred infrequently. Two- to three-day burn windows did not often occur more than twice per month over the study period, and longer burn windows were very rare. Interannual variation was considerable. Finally, an abrupt increase in burn windows was detected in 2008. This was determined to be related to a methodological change by air quality regulators and not to any changes in climate or resource availability.ConclusionsWhile this case study focuses on the LTB, the analysis was performed with readily available data and could be applied easily to other land management units, demonstrating a valuable method for planning and prioritizing fire and fuels management activities. This type of tool can also identify areas for research. For example, if there were unused burn windows during the winter and early spring—or they were projected to increase—research into the ecological impacts of winter and spring burning may allow managers to more confidently adapt to changing climate. Moreover, this analysis demonstrated that modest and reasonable regulatory changes can increase opportunities for prescribed burning.

Using Process Based Snow Modeling and Lidar to Predict the Effects of Forest Thinning on the Northern Sierra Nevada Snowpack

Reductions in snow accumulation and melt in headwater basins are increasing the water stress on forest ecosystems across the western US. Forest thinning has the potential to reduce water stress by decreasing sublimation losses from canopy interception; however, it can also increase snowpack exposure to sun and wind. We used the high-resolution (1 m) energy and mass balance Snow Physics and Lidar Mapping (SnowPALM) model to investigate the effect of two virtual forest thinning scenarios on the snowpack of two adjacent watersheds (54 km2 total) in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, where forest thinning is being planned. SnowPALM realistically represents small-scale snow-forest interactions to simulate the impact of virtual thinning experiments in which trees 3 m2/m2 and 5 to 15-m tall show the largest increases in snow accumulation (up to 450 mm) and melt volume (up to 650 mm). Despite the role of tree- and stand-scale thinning on snowmelt, macroscale effects were limited to slightly larger increases in melt volumes at mid to low elevation slopes (<2,300 masl) and south facing areas per unit of LAI removed. A decision support tool using machine learning (random forest) was developed to synthesize SnowPALM results, and was applied to neighboring watersheds. These results will inform ongoing forest management practices in California, and improve our understanding of the effects of snow-forest interactions at scales relevant to water management.

Increasing the efficacy of forest thinning for snow using high‐resolution modeling: A proof of concept in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

AbstractForest manipulation using forest thinning is one of the few means to manage water resources supplying downstream populations that are derived from snow‐covered montane forests. The challenges of simulating processes at the tree scale have precluded generalizable recommendations for removing tree canopy to maximize snow water resources. Here, we apply the high‐resolution Snow Physics and Lidar Mapping (SnowPALM) model to simulate snow mass and energy budgets at 1‐m scale over a 1,200 by 1,200 m domain on the west shore of Lake Tahoe, Sierra Nevada, USA. The SnowPALM model verifies well against observations of snow depth and snow temperature in open and under canopy locations. This supported the application of SnowPALM under “virtual thinning” experiments, where all trees &lt;5, &lt;10, &lt;15, and &lt;20 m height were removed during a 3‐year simulation. Increasing snowpack sublimation losses are smaller than reductions in canopy interception resulting in an overall increase in melt volume. Despite relatively modest melt volume increases of 4–8% across the entire domain, individual 30‐m stands could have &gt;30% melt volume increases. On average, a 0.5 decrease in lidar‐derived leaf area resulted in an ~10.5% increase in melt volume, with shorter, denser 30‐m forest stands having greater melt volume sensitivity. These dense forest stands, where forest thinning was most effective, were found in valley bottoms and north‐facing slopes across the west shore region. This proof of concept supports large domain simulations using high‐resolution models to inform landscape‐scale restoration decisions.