Lake-level Data Research Articles

Outburst floods and their impact on Chinese Neolithic cultures during the 4.2 ka BP event: Evidence from Dayeze Lake in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

Abrupt climate fluctuations between 4.2 and 3.5 ka BP, and in particular the 4.2 ka BP event, exerted a profound impact on the global ancient civilizations. However, hydroclimatic conditions within the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) regions during this event remain uncertain. Here we report a multi-proxy analysis of a sediment core obtained from Dayeze Lake in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in monsoonal China, to elucidate the hydroclimatic variabilities over the past 4.2 ka. Core intervals (4.2–3.5, 1.1–0.6 cal ka BP) containing high levels of sand fraction, low-frequency magnetic susceptibility and zirconium, and low levels of organic matter and calcium oxide, reflect outburst floods from the Yellow River. This is supported by the widespread fluvial deposits and slackwater deposits preserved in archaeological sites and loess-paleosol profiles from the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. In contrast, various climate records, such as lake level, pollen, and tree ring data, from the marginal regions of the ASM reflect widespread droughts during the same time period. This finding highlights the significant spatial heterogeneity of hydroclimate within ASM regions associated with the 4.2 ka BP event, which may be related to migrations of the monsoonal rain belt and the West Pacific subtropical high, as well as frequent El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Referring to archaeological data, we conclude that the decline and collapse of Chinese Neolithic cultures were related to a pattern of droughts in the marginal regions of the ASM and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.

Thinning and dynamics of the glacier terminus at the Pasterze Glacier (Austria), 2016–2021

As a result of global warming, glaciers worldwide recede and lose mass. Glacier ablation is influenced by surface characteristics, in particular the existence of debris cover. The evolution of glaciers may also be influenced by the existence of proglacial lakes, which are worldwide increasing in number and size. We examine the recent changes of the terminus of Pasterze Glacier by discussing the thinning and dynamics of the glacier terminus along with the changes of the glacial-proglacial transition zone between September 2016 and September 2021. By considering land cover in the interpretation, we find that glacier surface characteristics show different rates of elevation changes and surface movement. We mainly use orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) resulting from airborne surveys of 12 different acquisition dates, but also draw on ablation stake measurements, lake water level data, water temperature data, as well as thermal infrared (TIR) imagery. While debris-covered ice lowered typically −5.0 m a−1 ± 4.6 m a−1 (mean ± standard deviation), debris-free ice was affected by ablation in the range of −7.0 m a−1 ± 2.7 m a−1, thus demonstrating that melt rates in similar elevations are related to surface characteristics. The elevation change rates were, in most cases, in a similar range throughout the observed periods of time. The horizontal displacement close to glacier-marginal crevasses amounted to up to ∼8 m a−1, but was mostly in the range of ∼1–4 m a−1. Considering both horizontal displacement and elevation changes, we find that clean and dirty ice surfaces show larger thickness losses and are moving faster compared to debris-covered glacier surfaces. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of lake water levels in the range of decimeters and lake water temperatures mostly clearly exceeding 0 °C are indicative of the potential influence of the proglacial lake on the glacier terminus. Given the decelerating and decaying behavior of the Pasterze Glacier in recent decades, we interpret the change rates of surface lowering and horizontal displacement 2016–2021 to be influenced by other factors such as the recently formed proglacial lake. This is also supported by direct ablation measurements that mostly show lesser ice melt differences compared to DEM-based surface elevation changes, suggesting that other factors such as thermally-induced melting contributed to an increased elevation difference.

Assessing lake shoreline change and prediction for 2030 by physical drivers: A Case Study from Lake Batur, Batur UNESCO Global Geopark, Bali

Over ten years, the water level of Lake Batur has increased. Agriculture area and settlements around Lake Batur are threatened by rising water level. This study aims to analyze the shoreline change of Lake Batur, located in the Batur UNESCO Global Geopark (BUGG), during the period of 2007 – 2018 and design a prediction for 2030. Understanding the shoreline change is very important for lake management and planning. Shoreline changes were analyzed in Geographic Information System (GIS) application. The data were obtained based on Remote Sensing (RS) data, Landsat ETM+ imagery on September 24, 2007, and Landsat OLI imagery on October 24th, 2018. Predictions of lake shoreline in 2030 result from modelling by integrating ASTER-GDEM V2 data, lake water level data for 2007–2018, annual average rainfall data for 2007–2018, and bathymetry data for 2013 and 2015. The results of the satellite imagery analysis show that there has been a change in the length of the shoreline, which has increased from 20.47 km in 2007 to 21.28 km (3.96%) in 2018. The lake surface area changed from 15.34 km2 in 2007 to 16.16 km2 in 2018 (5.35%). The prediction of lake shoreline changes in 2030 showed that Lake Batur will increase to 26.90 km (26.41%), and lake surface area is predicted to increase by 17.67 km2 (9.34%) from 2018. This is because of the morphological change of Lake Bottom.

Distinctive Patterns of Water Level Change in Swedish Lakes Driven by Climate and Human Regulation

AbstractDespite having approximately 100,000 lakes, Sweden has limited continuous gauged lake water level data. Although satellite radar altimetry (RA) has emerged as a popular alternative to measure water levels in inland water bodies, it has not yet been used to understand the large‐scale changes in Swedish lakes. Here, we quantify the changes in water levels in 144 lakes using RA data and in situ gauged measurements to examine the effects of flow regulation and hydroclimatic variability. We use data from several RA missions, including ERS‐2, ENVISAT, JASON‐1,2,3, SARAL, and Sentinel‐3A/B. We found that during 1995–2022, around 52% of the lakes exhibited an increasing trend and 43% a decreasing trend. Most lakes exhibiting an increasing trend were in the north of Sweden, while most lakes showing a decreasing trend were in the south. Regarding the potential effects of regulation, we found that unregulated lakes had smaller trends in water level and dynamic storage than regulated ones. While the seasonal patterns of water levels in the lakes in the north are similar in regulated and unregulated lakes, in the south, they differ substantially. This study highlights the need to continuously monitor lake water levels for adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and understand the downstream effects of water regulatory schemes.

Dynamics and a Hydraulic-Soil Mechanical Model for Pockmarks in a Mud-draped Lake: Lake Sünnet (NW Anatolia)

The scarcity of bathymetric studies in most Turkish lakes does not allow the documentation and the potential causes of lake bottom irregularities. In this study, relatively high-resolution bathymetric data from Lake Sünnet (NW Anatolia) revealed five deep (5.7 to 9.2m) and narrow (10 to 20m) depressions located along the boundary between the lake bottom and the steep lake margins. Analysis of lake level data belonging to dry seasons hints no leakage through these depressions. However, the negative conical shape and weakly developed levees around the holes suggest an upward episodic groundwater discharge for which direct evidence has been absent up to date. A combined hydraulic and soil mechanical model successfully explains the pockmark activity due to the flow of water through conduits in karstic carbonate bedrock. According to sedimentation rates and average depth of pockmarks in Lake Sünnet, and available regional paleoclimate studies, the onset of pockmark activity might coincide with the transition from the Near East Aridification Phase to the humid Beyşehir Occupation Phase around 300 BCE in SW and NW Anatolia.

Parallel investigations of remote sensing and ground-truth Lake Chad's level data using statistical and machine learning methods

Lake Chad is facing critical situations since the 1960s due to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The statistical analyses of remote sensing climate variables (i.e., evapotranspiration, specific humidity, soil temperature, air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture) and remote sensing and ground-truth lake level applied to the period 1993–2012 reveal that remote sensing data has a skewed distribution; ground-truth data has a symmetrical distribution. Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Regression Tree (RT), Random Forest Regression (RF), and Deep Learning (DL) methods show that (i) RF and LR, with the highest R2 and EVS and least MAE, MSE, RMSE and, CVMSE values seem the best models to further investigate remote sensing and ground-truth lake level data and (ii) the remote sensing data based models outperform the ground-truth data based models based on their MAE, MSE, RMSE, and CVMSE values. The most useful variables to predict lake level are precipitation and air temperature. The data analysis methodology reported here is of fundamental importance for the perspectives of an integrated and forward-looking water management system for connecting climate change, vulnerability, and human activities in the Lake Chad human-environment system. Corroboration studies are needed when more ground-truth data eventually are obtainable.

Lake Bonneville and the Wasatch Fault – new theories and new paradigms yield insights into present-day hazards in other regions of the world

Three new theories challenge the assumptions underlying 150 years of research regarding Lake Bonneville and extend and redefine the history of this late-Pleistocene/early-Holocene lake. These new theories have relevance to current-day hazards in many areas of the globe and are important to our understanding of the climate of the western United States. The lake’s level history and shorelines have presented a confusing array of conflicting data, which has universally and incorrectly been attributed to abrupt and temporary climate oscillations. The Earthquake-induced Surging Theory explains misunderstood lake features, extends the lake level data back to 40kya, and explains the Bonneville Flood, confirming a 17.4kya (cal) date for that event. The Isostatic Rebound Pop Seiche Theory explains the “Intermediate Shorelines” first identified by G.K. Gilbert with a shocking twist regarding timing. This theory teaches us something of importance regarding glacial lakes forming today. The Bear River Exclusion Theory explains the anomalously rapid fall from the Provo Level and resolves the early/late Provo Level controversy. This last theory is going to be important for addressing the future of the Great Salt Lake.

Late Quaternary evolution of Daihai Lake in northern China and implications to the variation of the East Asian summer monsoon

Global warming over the past decades has resulted in desiccation of lakes in arid and semi-arid northern China. However, the mechanisms responsible for the sharp fluctuations in water levels for these lakes in this region are still unclear. The water level fluctuations in geological time can provide an analogue to better understand current lake levels’ response to global warming. In this study, a combination of quartz and feldspar luminescence dating techniques was applied to establish the chronologies of two sedimentary sequences related to lake level in the catchment of Daihai Lake, located on the fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain. Our objective is to reconstruct the late Quaternary history of lake level fluctuations and provide the interpretations of their causes. The results indicate that two lake-level highstands existed during 130–120 ka and 8-4 ka, at least ∼38 m and 40 m above the current lake level, respectively. We interpret that the lake level variations on multiple timescales in the monsoonal marginal area have primarily been regulated by the EASM intensity and corresponding monsoonal precipitation, while temperature changes may have played a minor role. Moreover, a compilation of existing lake level data reveals that EASM intensity has a complex response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation on millennial-orbital timescales. Combining precipitation records in central and southern China, the character of rainfall across East Asia during MIS 5 exhibits a dominant tripolar pattern.

Long-Term Change of Lake Water Storage and Its Response to Climate Change for Typical Lakes in Arid Xinjiang, China

Lakes play a role as the sentinel of climate change. Surrounded by vast expanses of barren land with limited infrastructure, there is also a lack of knowledge about the dynamics of dryland lakes. The change of lake area can be effectively monitored by remote sensing, and multi-source satellite altimetry datasets provide the possibility to obtain long-term lake water level data. Using the Global Surface Water Monthly Historical dataset and altimetry water level dataset (Hydroweb), we reconstructed a time series of lake water storage changes in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, by establishing the empirical models based on the statistical relationship between the surface area and water level of each lake. We further explored lake response to climate change. The results show that the storage of water at Ayakkum Lake, Aqqikkol Lake and Aksayquin Lake have been undergoing an obvious expanding trend from 2000 to 2020, at a rate of 3.59×108m3/a, 9.43×108m3/a and 0.44×108m3/a, respectively. In the plain and transition zone, Ulungur Lake showed an upward tendency (0.413×108m3/a) in water storage, while Manas Lake and Bosten Lake experienced shrinkage with descending rates of −0.1×108m3/a and −0.86×108m3/a. Temperature changes significantly affect the lake water storage on plateaus, especially those lakes supplied with a large proportion of glacial meltwater. Precipitation is a key factor for changes of lake storage in the plain and transition zones. Meanwhile, extreme weather and man-made factors also play crucial roles. To reduce the risk of flood and drought disasters, rational regulation of water resources is required, and a large-scale integrated catchment management plan can avoid inadvertent trade-offs. This research provides a new perspective for lake water storage inversion, as well as data support for water resources management in arid areas including Xinjiang.

Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.

Comparing surface water supply index and streamflow drought index for hydrological drought analysis in Ethiopia

Recently, floods and drought have become common natural hydroclimatic hazards in several countries. Consequently, the identification of an appropriate drought index is now a challenging task for researchers. It is obvious that there is not a single best drought index; rather a comparison of indices will give a relative option. The objective of this study was to compare two hydrological drought indices; the modified surface water supply index (M1SWSI) and streamflow drought index (SDI) over eight river basins, in Ethiopia. The M1SWSI and SDI value was computed from 1973 to 2014 using 34 streamflow stations, 42 rainfall gauge stations, and 3 lake-level data. The two indices results showed that the 1980s were the most severe drought years for all river basins. But for the case of Genale Dawa and Wabishebele basins, the drought severity increased from 2000 to 2014. Hydrological drought analysis using SDI has more drought occurrence frequency than M1SWSI. In all river basins from 1973 to 2014, there were a total of 18 severe drought events when using M1SWSI, but there were a total of 39 severe and 12 extreme drought events when using SDI. This implied that M1SWSI reduced the occurrence probability of severe drought by 53.85% and extreme drought by 100%. It is known that Ethiopia is stricken by extreme droughts in the last few decades. But M1SWSI doesn't detect those invidious drought events. In this study, SDI is found to be a better hydrological drought index. Therefore, policy and strategic planners, master plan developers, and decision-makers can use SDI to analyze historical and future hydrological drought trends to develop effective drought mitigation measures.

The Effects of Lake Level and Area Changes of Poyang Lake on the Local Weather

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and is characterized by significant intra-annual variation, with higher water levels and area in the wet season compared to the dry season. However, the effects of the seasonal variation in Poyang Lake on the local weather are still not well-recognized. With the help of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, we designed one control experiment (CTL) using the default Poyang Lake level and area data and two sensitivity experiments, EXPT1 and EXPT2, the former representing the higher lake level and the greater area of Poyang Lake in the wet season and the latter representing the lower lake level and the smaller area of Poyang Lake in the dry season, to assess how these changes affect the local weather. The results of EXPT1 show that, as the lake’s level and area increase, the latent heat flux (LH), the sensible heat flux (SH), and the land surface temperature (LST) in the lake area decrease compared to those of the CTL. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer height (PBL), the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the wind speed, and the vapor flux over the lake decrease as well, indicating increased atmospheric stratification stability and resulting in a domain-averaged decline in precipitation of −22.3 mm. However, the low lake level and less area in EXPT2 show increasing SH, LST, PBL, and wind speed, and decreasing LH and CAPE compared to those of the CTL. The increasing SH and weakened atmospheric stratification stability in EXPT2 cause a significantly higher wind speed over the eastern part of the lake. As a result, more water vapor is transported to the east side of the lake by westerly upper winds, leading to a decreasing precipitation on the western side of the lake and a slightly increasing precipitation on the eastern side, resulting ultimately in a domain-averaged decline in precipitation of −23.8 mm in the simulation of the low level and less area of Poyang Lake. Although the LH and CAPE decline both in EXPT1 and EXPT2, the main cause is the higher water thermal capacity and lower lake-surface temperature with more lake water for EXPT1 and the lower evaporation with less lake water for EXPT2. Overall, a deeper and larger Poyang Lake will reduce the local temperature, inhibit water evaporation from the lake surface, and make the near-surface atmosphere more stable, resulting in restrained local precipitation. A shrinking lake level and area will raise the local temperature and the instability of the near-surface atmosphere but reduce water vapor and enlarge local wind and circulation, resulting in declining precipitation and a changing fall zone.

The Spatiotemporal Change of Xiao Qaidam Lake from 1990 to 2020 and Its Potential Hazards

In the climatic context of warming and humidification in Northwest China, most lakes in Qinghai Province experienced a rising water level and expanding area, inundating grassland and infrastructure around lakes, and even extreme events such as lake outburst floods. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI and GF PMS images, lake water level data, SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), GlobeLand30 and meteorological data used in this study, we analyzed the area change of Xiao Qaidam Lake in Qaidam Basin with its causes, factors and potential hazards. The results show that the area of Xiao Qaidam Lake increased by 60.42 km2 (85.43%) from 1990 to 2020, which can be roughly divided into three stages: fluctuation decline in 1990–2001 (−1.89 km2/a); relatively stable in 2002–2014; and rapid expansion in 2015–2020 (8.54 km2/a). In 2020, the water level and water volume of Xiao Qaidam Lake increased by 3.62 m and 0.39 km3, respectively, compared with 2015, resulting in the inundation of an area of 54.55 km2 of grassland around the lake and a direct threat to the Liuge and Dexiao Expressways. Both the increase in annual precipitation (12.63 mm/10a) and the decrease in potential evapotranspiration (−13.38 mm/10a) since 1990 are the main reasons for the rapid expansion of Xiao Qaidam Lake, and the increasing trend of climate warming and humidification will lead to the continuous expansion of Xiao Qaidam Lake in the next decades. According to the water volume growth rate from 2015 to 2020, it is predicted that by 2024 the area and water level of Xiao Qaidam Lake will reach 154 km2 and 3180 m, respectively, and part of Liuge and Dexiao Expressways will be submerged. Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen the monitoring of Xiao Qaidam Lake and formulate corresponding disaster prevention and reduction measures.

On the implementation of the dynamically zoned target release reservoir model in the GEM-Hydro streamflow forecasting system

This study investigates the benefit of the dynamically zoned target release (DZTR) reservoir model to improve upon the natural lake model for storage and outflow simulations of regulated reservoirs. Simulations were performed with the GEM-Hydro hydrologic model over the Saskatchewan River Basin to study different implementation scenarios for DZTR, applicable for varying degrees of available observed data. Results show that DZTR brings significant improvements upon the natural lake model. Outflow simulations are always better with DZTR than with the natural lake model, while storage performances are sensitive to the implementation methodology considered. Even in the absence of observed lake level data, storage simulations with DZTR are more realistic than the natural lake model. Automatic calibration of the 76 DZTR model parameters did not significantly improve results upon the general implementation methodology. Given the performance variability across reservoirs and the subjective steps involved in the DZTR implementation, it seems risky to implement DZTR without any flow observations downstream of a reservoir.

Reconstruction of the depletion process of lake water resources in semi-arid areas under strong human activities—Taking Lake Daihai as an example

湖泊水资源持续损失已经成为影响半干旱地区经济社会发展的主要问题之一.然而，由于缺少长期连续的湖泊动态监测数据，该地区湖泊水资源损失过程及其与气候变化和经济社会发展之间的关系没有得到详细的评估.针对此问题，本文以位于半干旱地区的岱海为研究对象，利用改进型归一化差异水体指数从1986—2020年258景Landsat遥感影像中提取湖泊水体边界，结合湖泊水位数据，重建了近60 a岱海水资源量动态变化过程.结果表明：1961—2019年期间，岱海急剧萎缩，湖泊水量共减少9.88×10⁸ m³.同时水量变化趋势分段函数拟合结果表明，岱海水量变化可分为3个阶段：1961—1978年，水量损失速率为0.726×10⁷ m³/a的缓慢损失阶段；1979—2004年，水量损失速率为2.10×10⁷ m³/a的快速损失阶段；2005—2019年，水量损失速率为3.39×10⁷ m³/a的加速损失阶段.相关分析表明：岱海水量损失与流域经济社会发展密切相关.其中，改革开放后流域农业开发利用规模和强度的提高是导致岱海水量损失的主要原因；“西部大开发”战略实施后工业经济的兴起则加速了岱海水量的损失.据此，本研究建议干旱半干旱地区湖泊流域经济社会的发展应与其水资源承载力相协调.;The continuous loss of lake water resources has become one of the main problems affecting the economic and social development in semi-arid areas. However, due to the lack of long-term continuous monitoring data of lake dynamics, the process of lake water resources loss and its relationship with climate change and economic and social development in this area have not been evaluated in detail. To solve this problem, this paper takes Lake Daihai, which is located in a semi-arid area, as the research object, using the improved normalized difference water body index to extract the boundary of lake water body from 258 Landsat remote sensing images from 1986 to 2020, and reconstructs the dynamic change process of water resources in Lake Daihai for last 60 years by integrating lake water level data. The results show that from 1961 to 2019, the Lake Daihai shrank sharply, and the lake water volume decreased by 9.88×10⁸ m³. At the same time, the fitting results of the piecewise function of the water volume change trend show that the water volume change of Lake Daihai can be divided into three stages:from 1961 to 1978, the slow loss stage with the water loss rate of 0.726×10⁷ m³/a; from 1979 to 2004, the rapid loss stage with the water loss rate of 2.10×10⁷ m³/a; from 2005 to 2019, the accelerated loss stage with the water loss rate of 3.39×10⁷ m³/a. Correlation analysis shows that the loss of water volume of Lake Daihai is closely related to the economic and social development of the river basin. Among them, the increase in the scale and intensity of agricultural development and utilization in the watershed after the reform and opening-up is the main reason for the loss of water volume of the Lake Daihai; the rise of the industrial economy after the implementation of the Western Development strategy accelerated the loss of water volume of the Lake Daihai. Accordingly, this study suggests that the economic and social development of lake basins in arid and semi-arid regions should be coordinated with their water resource carrying capacity.

GRACE-based estimates of groundwater variations over North America from 2002 to 2017

GRACE-based estimates for groundwater storage (GWS) changes in North America substantially depend upon correction of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects, which are usually removed with GIA models. In this study, GIA effects are eliminated by employing an independent separation approach with the aid of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vertical velocity data. Our goal is to provide an independent estimate for monthly GWS changes within North America in 1-degree-grids and their trends over the whole GRACE mission lifetime from April 2002 to June 2017. This estimate is derived from the release-6 version of GRACE monthly level-2 data, GNSS data, land surface models for soil moisture and snow water equivalent, and satellite altimetric lake level data. We find a GWS anomaly in form of an increasing trend in Saskatchewan, which affects the Saskatchewan Province and the states of Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota, and 4 GWS anomalies with declining trends in Nevada, California, Arizona and Texas, respectively. The monthly changes of these GWS anomalies, except for the one in Nevada, are validated by well level data. We provide results for average monthly GWS changes and the trends for the 5 anomalies but also in separate form for the 13 affected states or provinces. The increasing trends of the Saskatchewan GWS anomaly and the affected 3 states are related to increasing precipitation and can be elucidated by the decreasing drought intensity level. On the contrary, the declining trends in GWS can be explained by weakening precipitation and are mostly supported by the increasing drought intensity level in the other 4 anomalies and the affected states, which are Nevada, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. Our estimates of monthly GWS changes and their trends can serve as alternative and beneficial input for the sustainable management of groundwater resources in North America.

Foredune dynamics at a Lake Michigan site during rising and high lake levels

On Great Lakes dunes, the link between foredune dynamics and coastal processes is seen in dune responses to changing lake levels. This paper investigates foredune dynamics during a recent period of rising and high lake levels. The study location was an active foredune in P.J. Hoffmaster State Park on the east coast of Lake Michigan, where field data were collected from 2000 through the final destruction of the foredune by wave removal in November 2019. Foredune dynamics were studied with erosion pins, direct observations, photographs, mapping, and on-site wind measurements. Regional climate and lake-level data were obtained from established data collection programs. The response of the foredune to rising lake levels was compared to several models of foredune behavior. During the study, the Lake Michigan-Huron level rose 1.89 m from January 2013 to July 2020. After an early transitional period, foredune activity was characterized by scarp retreat (4–19 m per year) and dune narrowing from 2014 to 2019. When the foredune completely disappeared in November 2019, erosion/scarping began on the next landward dune. The foredune activity fits Olson’s (1958) model for foredune growth and erosion through lake-level cycles. The foredune migration predicted by the revised Davidson-Arnott (2021) model of foredune response to relative water level rise did not occur, most likely because the rate of lake-level rise was too high. The six years of foredune narrowing before wave erosion started affecting the next landward dune represent a time-lag in Lake Michigan dune history models of increased dune activity during high lake-level stands.

Quantifying water storage within the north of Lake Naivasha using sonar remote sensing and Landsat satellite data

Endorheic freshwater lakes can be vital water resources for sustaining large populations. However, their land-locked nature can lead to overexploitation and long-term sediment accumulation, reducing water storage and quality. Lake Naivasha supports a rapidly expanding population and agricultural industry. Therefore, maintaining good water storage and quality within this endorheic lake is crucial for the Kenyan economy and population. The lake has a long history of level fluctuations and the region is considered to be suffering from a chronic imbalance between water supply and demand.This study quantifies the sediment deposition rate and its impact on Lake Naivasha's water levels and volume, using inexpensive remote sensing techniques that could be easily replicated for future monitoring.Evidence of sedimentation in the northern area averaging 23 mm yr−1 was identified, which is likely annually displacing between 40.2 – 576 × 103 m³ of water. The volume displaced each year is equivalent to the water required to sustain between 40 – 1152 people. These results imply that current abstraction management, based purely upon lake level readings that govern a ‘traffic lights’ system, are detrimental to the long-term survival of the lake. The results also imply that lake health is decreasing. We recommend that future monitoring of this water resource and all endorheic lakes consider measurements of available water volume in combination with lake level data using the remote sensing methods we describe.

Seasonal hydrological loading in the Great Lakes region detected by GNSS: a comparison with hydrological models

SUMMARY Crustal deformation caused by hydrological processes has long been detected using space geodetic techniques, yet questions remain about the relative contributions of surface water and groundwater to the geodetic signals in different regions. Here, we investigate forward models of elastic loading deformation caused by a variety of water-storage changes within the Great Lakes region, including fluctuations in lake-water volume, soil moisture and snow load. We use lake-level data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, soil-moisture content from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), snow load from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and background hydrological load at the global scale from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We compare the modelled surface deformation with estimates of hydrological loading deformation inferred from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. We find that seasonal deformation measured by GNSS is dominated by regional-scale hydrological loading based on strong correlations with the modelled loading displacements. The mean correlation coefficient for the study network is 0.56. The correlation coefficients vary spatially within the study region and exceed 0.9 at some stations near to the Great Lakes. We assess the relative contribution of each individual hydrological component to the total integrated hydrological load. We find that soil moisture consistently explains the largest percentage (27–69 per cent) of the total vertical loading deformation for 87 per cent of GNSS stations in the Great Lakes region. Snow loading and soil moisture contribute relatively equally in the northern reaches of the study area (e.g. Canadian shield, northern Superior basin). Lake loading accounts for about 10–25 per cent of the total loading signal in the immediate vicinity of the lakes. We also investigate the sensitivities of the surface loading displacements to three different Earth models, including two with lateral variations in structure. The structural variations considered here have limited impact (<0.2 mm) on the predicted hydrological loading displacements and could be neglected at the current level of observational precision.

Younger Dryas to early Holocene (12.9 to 8.1 ka) limnological and hydrological change at Barley Lake, California (northern California Coast Range)

AbstractPaleoperspectives of climate provide important information for understanding future climate, particularly in arid regions such as California, where water availability is uncertain from year to year. Here, we present a record from Barley Lake, California, focusing on the interval spanning the Younger Dryas (YD) to the early Holocene (EH), a period of acute and rapid global climate change. Twelve radiocarbon dates constrain the timing between 12.9 and 8.1 ka. We combine a variety of sediment analyses to infer changes in lake productivity, relative lake level, and runoff dynamics. In general, the lake is characterized by two states separated by a <200-year transition: (1) a variably deep, lower-productivity YD lake; and (2) a two-part variably shallow, higher-productivity EH lake. Inferred EH winter-precipitation runoff reveals dynamic multidecadal-to-centennial-scale variability, in agreement with the EH lake-level data. The Barley Lake archive captures both hemispheric and regional signals of climate change across the transition, suggesting a role for both ocean-atmosphere and insolation forcing. Our paleoperspective emphasizes California's sensitivity to climate change and how that change can generate abrupt shifts in limnological regimes.