Lag Approach Research Articles

The impacts of income inequality, forest area, and technology innovations on ecological footprint in Indonesia: ARDL and ML approach

Reducing humans’ ecological footprint (ECF) is critical for guaranteeing a sustainable future and sustaining the planet's health for future generations. Consequently, sustainability policies and development aim to minimize ECF and guarantee a sustainable future. This study analyzes the effects of gross domestic product (GDP), financial development, renewable energy, share of global forest area, and technological innovations on the ECF of the Indonesian economy from 1990 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach is applied to observe the varying levels of influence across variables. The findings show significant short-term links between GDP, income inequality, technological advancements, and ECF, and statistically significant long-term relationships between GDP, share of forest area, and technological innovation. The machine learning approach uses neural networks and regression as its parametric models to analyze the data for prediction. Both models can predict how the parameters interacted with ECF, with neural networks making more accurate predictions. The study reveals that economic growth intensifies ECF, whereas income equality decreases it. Technological advancements and forest expansion benefit the environment by reducing the footprint. These insights can provide policy recommendations to minimize ECF in Indonesia and strengthen the efforts to achieve a sustainable future.

The nexus between economic, demographic, policy and human development in South Africa: An econometric analysis

The Human Development Index, which accounts for both net foreign income and the total value of goods and services generated domestically, illustrates how income becomes less significant as Gross National Income (GNI) rises by using the logarithm of income. South Africa ranks 109th out of 189 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) within the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economic bloc, raising long-term sustainability concerns. The study explores the relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. South Africa’s unique status as a developing country within the BRICS economic group, alongside its lengthy history of racial discrimination, calls for a sophisticated approach to understanding Human Development. Existing research considered economic, demography, policy indicators independently; the gap of understanding their interconnection and long-term effects in the South African contexts exists. The study addresses the gap by using Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short-term and the long-term relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa. The findings indicate that growth in GDP is a key factor in the HDI since it shows that there are more financial resources available for human development. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa.

Effect of capital market on economic growth: An analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

The limits testing method known as ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) examines Nigerian capital market improvement and monetary development. Relevant indicators about the capital market are taken into account during analysis while considering influencing factors as well. This study aims to explore the relationship between the capital market and financial development in Nigeria. The study’s theoretical framework, which is based on the ARDL framework, includes both short- and long-term dynamics. The data used in this analysis was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank database, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). In this study, the Nigerian All-Share Index, foreign direct investment, currency exchange rates, and inflation rates are the free factors, while the increase in GDP is the dependent factor. Through cointegration analysis using the ARDL framework, it was discovered that in Nigeria there’s a lengthy equilibrium correlation between economic expansion and financial development. The coefficients determined allow for a deeper understanding of how capital market factors affect economic growth over time. Furthermore, utilizing an error correction model derived from the ARDL analysis offers insight into both brief dynamics and modified speed toward reaching a lasting state of balance. By utilizing the ARDL approach, this study adds to the continuing discourse surrounding how capital markets impact growth in Nigeria. Its empirical evidence provides valuable knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders looking to utilize capital markets effectively toward achieving long-lasting economic development within the country.

Interactivity, humanness, and trust: a psychological approach to AI chatbot adoption in e-commerce

This study aims to investigate the impact of interactivity and perceived humanness on trust toward AI chatbots in the e-commerce setting. Moreover, this study also aims to examine the mediation effect of trust toward AI chatbots in the relationship between interactivity and intention to adopt AI chatbots for e-commerce as well as in the relationship between perceived humanness and intention to adopt chatbots for e-commerce. This study used a time lag approach to collect the data from 343 customers from the southern region of China. The data were collected online through a questionnaire designed in Chinese language using a survey firm. The findings of this study indicated that there is a significant impact of interactivity and humanness on the trust toward chatbots. Moreover, the findings of this study indicated that there is a significant mediating effect of trust toward chatbots in the relationships of interactivity and perceived humanness to adopt chatbots for e-commerce. In addition, this study found a significant moderating influence on the perceived enjoyment of using chatbots in e-commerce settings. This study provides a unique perspective of expectation-confirmation theory for adopting emerging technologies for online shopping and also provides insights for designers and business firms to develop businesses to facilitate the AI chatbot feature for e-commerce.

Examining the Relationship Between Macroeconomic Indicators and Stock Market Development in Morocco

The literature is still debating the key macroeconomic variables influencing the stock market development. This paper attempts to provide an empirical study to identify the macroeconomic conditions required for the stock market development in a developing country, in this case, Morocco. The goal is to determine whether macroeconomic variables can improve Moroccan stock market development. The purpose of this study, which covers the period 1996-2020, is to determine the macroeconomic factors that contribute the Moroccan stock market development. It examines the impact of economic growth, banking sector development, stock market liquidity, foreign direct investment and macroeconomic stability measured by the Barro’s Misery index. The autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) was estimated, to get both the short and long run coefficients of the macroeconomic variables that determine Moroccan stock market development. The results reveal that stock market liquidity, banking sector development and foreign direct investment effect positively Moroccan’s stock market development, but macroeconomic stability effects it negatively. While the economic growth does not impact it, whether for the short or long run. There have been no relevant studies that have focused on the macroeconomic determinants of the Moroccan stock market in the short and long terms, despite the fact that theoretical and empirical literature offers diverse perspectives on which factors can determine stock market development. By examining the macroeconomic variables that contribute to Moroccan stock market development and introducing the misery index to assess the effects of macroeconomic stability, this study seeks to enrich the literature.

Exchange rate fluctuations and industrial production in Malaysia: evidence from dynamic simulated ARDL analysis

Contemporary literature argues that the exchange rate serves as an important instrument of industrial policy to boost economic growth. However, it is difficult to design effective exchange rate policies owing to the uncertainty shrouding the outcomes of the exchange rate movement for industrial growth. Therefore, this study uses a dynamic simulated autoregressive distributive lags approach to study the impact of positive and negative changes in the real effective exchange rate on industrial production of Malaysia for the period 1970–2022. We employ an extended production function to study this relationship by incorporating capital, labour and globalisation as additional explanatory variables. The findings suggest that positive (negative) changes in real effective exchange rate are followed by positive (negative) changes in economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, positive changes in capital affect economic growth positively and significantly in both the short and long run. Finally, positive (negative) movement in labour and globalization positively (negatively) and significantly affect industrial production in the long run respectively. Policymakers should depreciate currency to expand industrial production in Malaysia. Moreover, to boost industrial production, short-term loans should be introduced for capital accumulation.

Econometric analysis of factors influencing export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in NIGERIA: An auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach

This study presents an econometric analysis of factors influencing the export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in Nigeria using an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. The study used a secondary data covering the period from 2011 to 2022. The used data were collected from CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and the General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-P) in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the World Bank publication. The data analysis included descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound test, ARDL, and principal component model. The result of the ADF unit root test showed that the trade openness, consumer price index, exchange rate, population growth, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and soybean production were stationary at first difference I (1), while agricultural machinery was stationary at level I (0). The results of ARDL method showed that the consumer price index, population growth rate, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and agricultural machinery were significant factors influencing export performance of soybean in Nigeria. The trade openness and exchange rate were not different significantly from zero. The trade openness could not expand market access due to non-competitiveness of the Nigerian’s soybean. The exchange rate has lost its role with respect to soybean seed partners in international trade. The policies that would encourage exportation of this crop should be pursued by provision of storage facilities, granting of tax holidays, long term export credit at concessionary interest rate to exporters, and research activities towards improving the quality of produced agricultural products. Keywords: Export Performance, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag, Soybean Production, Nigeria

Income inequality-renewable energy demand nexus in emerging Asian economies: does asymmetry matter?

Several efforts have been made to explore the income inequality influence on environmental degradation, but the query regarding the nexus of income inequality and renewable energy consumption (REC) is still unanswered. This vacuum in existing literature has raised the need to inspect the relationship between income inequality and REC. Thus, this study purposes to investigate the asymmetric effect of income inequality on REC for emerging Asian economies over the period 1990-2019 by adopting the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The panel-wise long-run results infer that positive shock in income inequality exerts a significant negative effect on REC, while negative shock in income inequality has an insignificant effect on REC. Likewise, economy-wise long-run findings reveal that a positive shock in income inequality brings a negative and statistically significant influence on REC in the case of China, India, and Iran, while a negative shock in income inequality brings a positive influence on REC only in case of Russia.

The impact of alcohol consumption on economic growth in Thailand

The nighttime economy has always been an important part of tourism in Thailand. The alcohol industry contends that lifting alcohol restrictions will promote tourism and, consequently, generate additional income. Endogenous Growth Theory, however, emphasizes on investing in human capital, innovation, and knowledge as the most important factors that affect economic growth for a nation. Alcohol consumption incurs opportunity costs, as households lose financial resources and time that could be invested in children’s development. Relaxing control measures to promote alcohol consumption should impede economic development by diminishing the quality of human resources. The paper, therefore, aims to estimate the impact of alcohol consumption on economic growth by using 1990–2019 annual data from Thailand. By adopting Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results reveal that alcohol consumption has significant and negative effects on economic growth in the long run. The statistic tests demonstrate no presence of serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, as well as, endogeneity problems. The finding has been corroborated in international studies, in which alcohol consumption contributes to substantial social and economic costs of the society.

Synergistic effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on food security in Syria: an autoregressive distributed lag approach

ABSTRACT Food security has always been the main goal of Syrian agricultural strategy. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between selected climatic and non-climatic variables and food security in Syria from 1961 to 2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to estimate the association among the study variables with evidence of long-run and short-run analysis. The long-run estimates revealed that non-climatic variables including crop production, agricultural land, land under cereal production, and population, positively affected food security. Moreover, climatic variables including temperature and CO2 emissions positively affected food security in the long-run. The findings revealed that in the short-run, fertilizer affected food security positively. However, in the long run, the effect of fertilizer consumption turned out to be negative and significant. This study suggests that governments may consider measures to improve food security in Syria. Governments should focus on the issue of using climate-adapted plant varieties. Increasing the area under cereal crops and reducing agricultural land degradation could be an important long-term strategy for the government. There is a need to properly train farmers regarding fertilizer usage and switch from chemical fertilizer to organic fertilizer.

The Impact of Ecological Footprint, Urbanization, Education, Health Expenditure, and Industrialization on Child Mortality: Insights for Environment and Public Health in Eastern Europe.

The purpose of this study is to examine the connection between child mortality in Eastern Europe and ecological footprint, urbanization, education, health expenditure, and industrialization. The study acknowledges the significance of understanding how these factors influence the infant mortality rates in this region from 1993 to 2022. The Grossman Health Outcome (H-O) model investigates the theoretical framework. For the existence of the cross-sectional dependency, mixed-order unit root, and cointegration problem, the famous Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach is applied. The research also used the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) to check robustness. The findings illustrated that health expenditure and education lessen the infant mortality rate in Eastern European countries. But ecological footprint, industrialization and unemployment raise the infant mortality rate. According to the CS-ARDL findings, expenditure on healthcare significantly reduces child mortality. Still, the ecological footprint significantly impacts increasing child mortality. However, the AMG and CCEMG models demonstrate that investing in education is the most effective strategy for reducing child mortality. Therefore, the government of Eastern European countries should provide more priorities in the sustainable urbanization, health expenditure, and education sectors. The robustness of the AMG and CCEMG also demonstrated the strength of the CS-ARDL findings. This research paper contributes to SDG 3 by examining the environmental and health factors that influence child mortality in Eastern Europe. Policymakers, public health professionals, and other stakeholders can use the findings to inform the development and implementation of programs that specifically target the identified causes of child mortality.

Relationship between Agriculture Growth and the Unemployment Rate in Iraq (1991–2022)

Purpose: The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between agriculture development and unemployment rate for the period of 1991-2-2022 in Iraq. Theoretical framework: In the context of agricultural employment, agriculture is recognised as a crucial component of economic advancement and emphasises the significance of efficiently utilising all available resources, including human resources (Alsudani & Al-Hiyali, 2021). Moreover, the growth of agricultural and the unemployment rate have been used as two indicators to evaluate the significance of the agriculture sector(Jongerden et al., 2019). Design/methodology/approach: In order to examine whether there exists a real correlation between unemployment rate and agriculture growth in Iraq, we utilize yearly secondary data and apply extensive methodology that includes unit root tests, correlation analysis, co-integration tests, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Findings: the results of emperical examinations highlight a negative relationship between agricultural growth and the unemployment rate; that is, as agriculture growth increases, so does the unemployment rate decrease. Research, Practical & Social implications: The findings can provide insights for well-informed policy decisions and strategies to promote sustainable growth and employment generation in Iraq. In addition, for future research we suggest to include more macroeconomic variables in oreder to have intensive understanding real impacts of agriculture sector on economic growth and laboure force of countries. Originality/value: The results document that the connection between both agriculture development and unemployment rate is not positive, it means that unemployment rate will decrease if growth in agriculture increase.

The Impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN

To study the impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN. This study uses panel data from 1993 to 2022 from ASEAN countries by collecting data from the World Development Indicator, World Bank 2023, consisting of GDP per capita, working age population, Youth dependency population, and Elderly dependency population. We utilize the statistical completion program as a tool to help with the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) method analysis. The results of the study found that variables are stationary at I(0) and I(1) level. Moreover, the estimated coefficients of the variables with the Pooled Mean Group reveals that Working age population had a positive impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, Youth dependency population had a negative impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, and also had a speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium and for Elderly dependency population were not statistically significant. The result of Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effect further shows that there were not statistically significant. By means of the Hausman test, the results can be concluded that Pooled Mean Group estimation is most suitable.

Can Technological Advancement Empower the Future of Renewable Energy? A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Energy is pivotal in achieving sustainable development’s economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, to attain this crucial goal, it is essential to focus on the type of energy we generate and the methods by which we use them. The availability, accessibility, and use of green technologies have improved significantly since the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). This paper applies the pooled mean group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG ARDL) model from 2000 to 2021 to 11 countries that, according to the Climate Council, are most affected by environmental degradation issues and are taking new initiatives to reduce their emissions. The results indicate a significant relationship between renewable energy consumption and technological advancements in the short and long term. However, there needs to be more of the literature about the negative impact of research and development on renewable energy consumption. The findings of this paper can assist policymakers in determining effective strategies in the renewable energy sector, as any technological advancement is an innovative way to transform the renewable energy industry completely. By optimizing energy production and reducing costs, technological advancement can help a country achieve its renewable energy goals.

HDI, Oil Prices, Government Expenditures in GCC: Evidence from a Cross Sectional ARDL Approach

This study explores the relationship between oil prices and the Human Development Index (HDI) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. It investigates whether oil prices remain the primary driver of economic growth and development in the region. The analysis employs a Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach and Cointegrated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CCEMG) methods, following unit root and stationarity tests. The findings reveal an insignificant correlation between oil prices and HDI in the overall GCC countries. However, significant relationships are observed at the individual country level. These results suggest that policymakers in the region should prioritize economic diversification and focus on sectors such as tourism in Dubai and the specific policies implemented in Saudi Arabia to foster sustainable development.

How Do Greenhouse Gases and Other Factors Affect Rice Production in Bangladesh? An Insight from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Purpose: The study aims to elucidate the impact of greenhouse gases and other factors on rice production in Bangladesh. By considering the influences of greenhouse gases, technological factors, and industrial activities, the research unveils significant insights into the long-term and short-term effects on rice production. Methodology: This research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the impact of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, agricultural land, agriculture as percentage share of GDP, and industry on rice production in Bangladesh through EViews-12 Software. Findings: Our findings suggest that CO2 emissions, industrial and agricultural share as percentage of GDP exhibit a negative impact, decreasing rice production, while N2O and agricultural land have a notable positive effect. Technical factors such as the area under rice cultivation, agriculture and industry are identified as pivotal contributors to rice production. Practical Implications: Finally, the study concludes with policy implications and recommendations based on our findings for sustainable agricultural practices, technological advancements, and policy interventions tailored to enhance rice production and secure food sustainability in the unique agricultural landscape of Bangladesh. Originality/Value: As per as our knowledge, no research has been carried out in Bangladesh to investigate the impact of greenhouse gases and selected factors on rice production. Research Limitations: Due to difficulties in data collection procedure, we could not include all variables of greenhouse gases. We expect in future, there will be more data sources which would help many researchers to contribute to rice production related researches.

Impact of digital transformation on financial stability in emerging markets: evidence from Ethiopia

This insightful study delves into the intricate relationship between key digital finance adoption indicators and the stability of the banking sector in Ethiopia, an emerging economy undergoing rapid digitalization. Covering annual data from 1991 to 2022 and utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) techniques, the researchers uncover thought-provoking findings that challenge conventional wisdom. Contrary to expectations of a positive long-term association, the analysis reveals a statistically significant negative relationship between both internet usage and mobile phone subscriptions and Ethiopia's banking system's financial stability. This robust result, validated through rigorous robustness checks, suggests that the breakneck pace of digital transformation may outpace the development of robust regulatory frameworks and risk management practices, ultimately undermining the overall stability of the financial sector. Interestingly, the short-term analysis presents a more nuanced picture, with mobile phone subscriptions exhibiting a stabilizing effect in the immediate aftermath. This intriguing dichotomy highlights the complex and evolving dynamics at play, where the challenges of integrating digital finance with the traditional banking infrastructure and the persistence of informal financial activities potentially offset the benefits of enhanced financial inclusion and transaction efficiency. These thought-provoking findings carry crucial implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the digital revolution. Policy implications emphasize the need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced cyber security measures, and improved financial literacy. The findings underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to digital finance in emerging economies, advocating for continuous adaptation of policies to address the evolving landscape of financial technology. Continued inquiry can better guide policies that foster digital transformation while safeguarding stability, especially in rapidly developing regions like sub-Saharan Africa.Graphical

Defence Spending and Income Inequality. An Asymmetric Empirical Evidence from a Decomposition Analysis of Defence Spending in the Case of Greece

ABSTRACT This study is the first to empirically examine the asymmetric and compositional effects of defence spending on three different measures of income disparity. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, the study analyses the short- and long-term impacts of disaggregated defence spending on income inequality in Greece. The findings have significant theoretical and policy implications. First, in the medium term, increased military spending in Greece widens income disparity by boosting the income share of the wealthiest. Second, in the long term, positive changes in military expenditures reduce income inequality, primarily benefiting lower-income groups. Third, long-term negative changes in defence spending harm middle- and low-income groups. Finally, the compositional analysis highlights that increases in military spending, mostly on personnel and, to a lesser extent, on equipment, improve long-term income equality, while decreases in spending on personnel significantly worsen income disparity. Given these findings and the evolving nature of warfare, Greece should gradually adopt a new defence strategy. This strategy should emphasise extensive personnel reserves, prioritise domestic military equipment over costly foreign alternatives, and rationalise defence expenditures by reallocating budget expenditures towards health, education, and social welfare programs. These measures would enhance living standards and reduce income inequality in Greece.

Oil Price and Energy Intensity Dynamics in Nigeria: Does Technical Change Matter?

It is critical to understand the mechanism needed to control energy intensity especially in an oilexporting country like Nigeria, because of its consequential effect on carbon dioxide emissions and environmental pollution. Increases in energy prices can lead to promotion of better technology and consequently, a reduction in energy intensity through a reduction in energy demand (consumption). This paper explores the dynamics between energy price and energy intensity to reveal the role of technical change in the equation. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Toda-Yamamoto approaches. The study sample covers the period 1980 through 2021. The key contribution of this study to the literature is rooted in an understanding of the dynamics of energy intensity and its interplay with technical change in a country study as a critical piece of information for policymakers. The results indicate a change in oil price significantly affects technical innovation. However, there is no link between technical innovation and energy intensity. The plausible justification for the results is the enormity of oil subsidy policy of the Nigerian government.

Examining the Relationship Between Mobile Cellular Subscriptions and Inclusive Growth: SADC Members

Abstract Inclusive growth had faced global challenges in social and gender disparities issues, especially in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, which affects its administrations and distributions in modern development contexts. Recognised international institutions have used the term inclusive growth as a description of growth that is formed through labor force and distributions focusing on well-being. This study examines the relationship between mobile cellular subscriptions and inclusive growth to improve the standard of living using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach from 2000 to 2020. The economic growth context studies applied were unable to capture the demand for improving welfare and expectations to lessen poverty, while promoting inclusivity for SADC. Moreover, SADC economic growth partially dealt with the inclusive growth challenges of network connectivity, poor household benefit sharing, and a fast-growing population by applying non-validated methods that were useful to measure economic growth but fail to respond to inclusive growth. The World Bank (WB) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) databases were used to identify that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between mobile cellular subscriptions and inclusive growth in the long run. The findings of this study contribute by clarifying and urging policymakers and researchers concerned about equitable economic development to incorporate this sufficient to the relevant upbringing of communication channels to embrace inclusive growth opportunities to expand inclusive growth rapport and channels.