Labour Market Situation Research Articles

Editorial: Labour Market and Unemployment

Labour is a key factor of production, enabling the production of goods and services. Throughout history, the labour market situation has influenced economic growth and development, and hence investment, productivity, income, consumption and society's standard of living. The articles contained in the next volume of the journal Studia Historiae Oeconomicae analyze the above problem using selected examples dating back to the 18th century. The presented SHO volume consists of eight articles that provide authentic knowledge on such labour market shaping factors as wages, ideology and politics, as well as on the activities of labor unions and charitable organizations under different political and socio-economic systems. The study of labour and the labour market has a heavy burden for both cognitive and practical reasons, since knowledge of the causes, mechanisms and dynamics of change in this sphere can help optimize economic policies regarding the labour market as well as become a source of inspiration for readers and perhaps further research in this area.

Highly educated Ukrainian migrants in Poland prior to 2022: education, work and integration efforts

ABSTRACT Drawing on recent original qualitative research, this paper focuses on the under-researched area of highly skilled migration in the relatively new migratory context of Ukrainian migrants to Poland. Commonly, migrants from Ukraine have been found to work in basic low-paid jobs and in an informal, non-regulated capacity; thus, often falling prey to precarious and insecure employment. However, this article focuses on career pathways of highly educated migrants from Ukraine in Poland and explores how they take advantage of their education and qualifications. The analysis is focused on individual-level factors. The paper discusses the findings of 29 individual in-depth interviews. Among the respondents, 15 were working in occupations requiring higher education, and 14 worked below their education. This article contributes to the literature on the use of qualifications of migrant workers from Ukraine in Poland. We found that knowledge of the Polish language, and individual attitudes influence migrants’ use of education/qualifications. The relationship between family composition and the labour market situation of people with higher education is not clearly established in this research. We hope these findings will support the integration efforts of the newly arrived forced migrants from Ukraine in Poland and beyond.

Factors Influencing the Perceived Employability among University Students

The global economic turmoil and the employability gap among university students have created a challenging job market for graduates. It is crucial to understand the factors that shape students' perceived employability and to implement effective measures to address this serious issue. A literature review was conducted to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing perceived employability among university students, focusing on research findings published since 2021. The present study indicates that numerous factors, including individual, behavioural, and environmental variables, significantly influence perceived employability among university students. Besides, previous research has diverged on specific factors such as demographics, partial components of personality traits, career engagement, political skills, and labour market situation, which need to be further investigated in the future. Furthermore, this study underscores the crucial significance of perceived employability among university students in a challenging job market. It validates the relevance of Career Construction Theory in interpreting perceived employability among university students and improves researchers' understanding of how perceived employability has evolved before and after the pandemic. Most importantly, this study develops an integrated model of the factors influencing the perceived employability among university students, which can serve as a guide for future researchers to study university students' employment issues and navigate the career practices of stakeholders such as the Ministry of Education, universities, university students, employers, and career practitioners.

Part-Time Paradox: The Rise of Female Part-Time Employment and Its Impacts on Germany's Labor Market

Despite an employment rate of 76.6% for women in Germany, significant issues persist with regard to the labour market situation of women in the country. These include the prevalence of part-time work, the under-representation of women in senior management positions and the existence of pay gaps. This article employs data from the German Statistical Office spanning the period from 2000 to 2022 to examine the growth in part-time employment among women and its ramifications. The paper demonstrates that part-time work is a prevalent phenomenon in female-dominated sectors such as health and education. This is driven by a combination of economic conditions, the necessity to reconcile work and family life, and legal regulations. This situation consequently results in women facing lower remuneration and constrained career prospects. The necessity to balance work and family responsibilities represents a significant challenge for women, impeding their career development and negatively impacting their job performance and workplace commitment. These dynamics serve to perpetuate gender inequalities in the labour market, thereby preventing women from realising their full potential at work. This article makes a significant contribution to the existing literature on the relationship between part-time work and gender inequalities in the German labour market by providing a detailed analysis of this complex relationship. The article offers valuable insights into the potential of legal regulations, such as the Temporary Part-Time Work Act enacted in 2019, to alleviate the adverse effects of part-time work on women. The research is distinctive in its comprehensive examination of the socio-economic dynamics of part-time work, its legal framework, and its impact on gender equality, based on an extensive data analysis conducted over an extended period. By offering a detailed and nuanced understanding of these issues, the study draws attention to the ongoing challenges women face in the labour market and suggests potential policy interventions to promote gender equality. This article emphasises the necessity for targeted measures to facilitate women's career progression and offset the adverse consequences of part-time employment, thereby contributing to a more equitable labour market.

Dropout intention: a valid predictor of actual dropout?

Evidence on the extent to which dropout intention can serve as a valid predictor of dropout decisions remains scarce. This study first presents the results of a systematic literature review of 14 studies examining the relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout in post-secondary education (vocational education and training [VET] or higher education). Second, we examine a longitudinal dataset of prospective chefs surveyed at the beginning (t1), the second half of the first year (t2), and the second year of the dual VET programme (t3). We examine the relationship between self-reported dropout intention and trainees’ actual dropout behaviour. Additionally, we analyse development profiles of trainees’ dropout intention using latent profile analysis. The review results provide strong support for a significant positive relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout (effect sizes vary between studies and contexts/types of dropout). In line, aspiring chefs’ dropout intention is significantly positively correlated with actual dropout (r = 0.201). Three development profiles were identified during VET: (1) stable, low dropout intention, (2) stable, medium dropout intention, and (3) increasing dropout intention. We conclude that dropout intention is positively related to actual dropout. As the extent to which dropout intention actually leads to dropout behaviour in VET also depends on external factors (e.g., labour market situation, alternative options), the predictive power of dropout intention may be limited. This is suggested by the weak correlation between dropout intention and actual dropout and the profile of trainees with increasing dropout intention who nevertheless persisted until year 2 of VET.

Международные мигранты на российском рынке труда: свои среди своих?

В работе проводится анализ положения международных мигрантов на российском рынке труда. В качестве показателей положения на рынке труда используются вероятность занятости и индикаторы уязвимости занятости (неформальная занятость, низкоквалифицированная занятость). Эмпирической основой исследования являются микроданные обследования Росстата «Выборочное наблюдение труда мигрантов», проведенного в 2019 г. Результаты эконометрического анализа свидетельствуют о том, что при прочих равных вероятность наличия оплачиваемой занятости у мужчин-мигрантов выше, чем у мужчин–представителей коренного населения. Для женщин отмечается обратная зависимость — уровень занятости женщин-мигранток значимо ниже уровня занятости коренных жительниц. Полученный результат устойчив к вариации длительности пребывания мигрантов в России. С увеличением длительности проживания мигрантов в России различия в уровне занятости мигрантов и коренного населения сокращаются, но не исчезают совсем. Занятость мигрантов, как мужчин, так и женщин, значимо более уязвима, чем занятость коренных жителей. Значимость этой связи снижается с увеличением срока пребывания мигрантов в России. Вероятность неформальной и низкоквалифицированной занятости для мигрантов, пребывающих в России более пяти лет, статистически не отличается от аналогичных показателей для коренных жителей. Результаты, полученные для всей выборки, в целом на качественном уровне сохраняются и для отдельных социально-демографических групп населения. The paper analyzes the position of international migrants in the Russian labor market. Probabilities of employment and employment vulnerability (informal employment, lowskilled employment) are used as indicators of the position on the labor market. The empirical basis of the work is the microdata of the survey “Sample Observation of Labor of Migrants”, conducted by Rosstat in 2019. The results of the econometric analysis show that, other things being equal, the probability of being employed is higher for migrant men than for native men. For women, there is an inverse relationship — probability of employment of migrant women is signifi cantly lower than the probability of employment of native women. The same results were obtained for subsamples of migrants depending on their length of stay in Russia. With the increase in the duration of migrants’ residence in Russia, the difference in the employment rate of migrants and the native population is reduced, but do not disappear completely. The signifi cance of this relationship decreases with the increase in the period of stay of migrants in Russia. The probability of informal and low-skilled employment for migrants staying in Russia for more than fi ve years does not statistically differ from similar indicators for natives. The results obtained for the entire sample are, on the whole, qualitatively preserved for certain socio- demographic groups of the population.

How ChatGPT shapes the future labour market situation of software engineers: A Finnish Delphi study

ChatGPT is changing our working lives, conjuring visions of revolutionary shifts ahead. ChatGPT is a chatbot based on generative artificial intelligence, which can, e.g., write computer code. This article explores how it might shape the future labour market situation of software engineers. A Delphi study with 14 experts was conducted in Finland. The first round identified possible futures, and the second round assessed their probabilities. Five scenarios prevailed: the unlikely scenario that the status quo persists; the ambivalent scenario that ChatGPT can replace software engineers to a large extent; the likely scenario that computer departments in startups embrace ChatGPT; the likely scenario that ChatGPT use proliferates among software engineers to increase productivity; and the highly likely scenario that ChatGPT makes computer programming accessible to the masses. Findings contradict previous discussions that technological advancements might take over especially routine tasks. ChatGPT can also take over non-routine tasks. Moreover, findings underline that digitalisation does not only bring about a choice between upskilling and employability loss, but also a democratisation of knowledge and expertise. Software engineers and companies might use the findings as an impetus for upskilling, while universities might feel nudged to incorporate ChatGPT more strongly into their curricula.

Labor market: current situation and near-term prospects

The article analyzes the current situation in the Russian labor market, which affects all its participants such as employing organizations and employees of various professions, specialties, and skill levels. All participants of the labor market either justify their expectations or face the need to revise them depending on the influence of various factors. The features of labor conditions that potential employees pay attention to in newly changed conditions have been identified. These include the remuneration size, the possibility of working time rational organization and finding a balance between work time and rest time, the presence of the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion (DIE) concept in the organization environment. The tendencies of jobs creation and elimination in the labor market have been considered. The most rational ways of regulating the jobs number in accordance with the needs of the organization have been shown: job replacement – new high-tech jobs creation while eliminating obsolete existing ones. The skills of workers in high-tech positions that are most in demand from the employers’ point of view have been given. The main trends in the use of young specialists in the in-demand professions market have been considered.

The political consequences of technological change that benefits low-skilled workers

Abstract Technological change often increases demand for high-skilled jobs, with low-skilled losers turning to the populist right in response. The political effects of technological change that increases demand for low-skilled workers are largely unknown. The growth of the salmon fish-farming industry in rural Norway improved the labor-market situation for low-skilled workers, and we find that support for the populist right-wing party increased in municipalities that benefitted from the industry growth. The electoral change is due to a right-wing shift on the economic, but not the cultural dimension. Our results support political economy frameworks that point to lower demand for state interventions after positive labor market shocks, but raise the question of in what contexts support for populism will decline.

The impact of oil prices, foreign direct investment and trade openness on unemployment rates in an oil-exporting country: The case of Saudi Arabia

This study analyzes the effects of major macroeconomic variables (oil price, foreign direct investment inflows, real gross domestic product and trade openness) on the unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia. The study adopted the ARDL model and bounds testing for co-integration approach and other diagnostic econometric techniques to check potential issues resulting from the use of time series data, from 1991 to 2019. Findings show that changes in the four variables exhibit a significant negative long-run effect on the unemployment rate. Additionally, we detected a non-linear relationship between unemployment and oil prices. The oil price effect is positive only if it exceeds $41.2 per barrel. A per-barrel price of oil below this threshold appears to worsen the labor market situation in Saudi Arabia. Revenues from oil exports account for major source of income for the country; unfortunately, oil prices are subject to factors beyond the control of the country (inconsistencies in global oil prices). The country needs to diversify its economy especially in growth-enhancing sectors of the economy to generate employment and moderate unemployment.

Language proficiency and immigrants’ employment outcomes in Spain

This paper analyses the impact of Spanish proficiency on first generation immigrants’ employment outcomes, based on the Spanish Labour Force Survey 2014 ad hoc module on “labour market situation of migrants and their immediate descendants”. Proficiency in Spanish enhances immigrants’ employability, particularly for immigrants from non-Spanish-speaking countries, as well as on occupation prestige, measured via ISEI (International Socio-Economic Index). This latter result is often less clear because of occupational segregation in the Spanish labour market amongst workers from different regions of the world, but it turns significant when endogeneity in language skills is taken into account via simultaneous equation models.

Doctoral students from Chinese prestigious universities who wish to work in the government sector: Perceptions and mechanisms

AbstractThis paper addresses the perceptions and mechanisms of doctoral student job decisions regarding the pursuit of careers in the government sector in China. Through the lens of social cognitive career theory (SCCT), we analysed 30 semi‐structured interviews that had been conducted with doctoral students from two prestigious Chinese universities who wish to work as civil servants. This study describes doctoral students' understanding of careers in government employment from the perspectives of work content, promotion channels and professional norms. The mechanisms influencing student career choices include personal goals, self‐efficacy, outcome expectations and environment. The clear goal of political ambition and work–life balance directly drives doctoral students to choose government institutions for employment. The diploma signal of doctoral degree itself and academic training give doctoral students a high sense of self‐efficacy, which is necessary for their choice of employment in the government. Occupational safety, occupational benefits and occupational value constitute the expectations of positive outcomes providing doctoral students with good feedback. In the current environment, the labour market situation and the impetus of universities combine to form a push force and the preferential recruitment policies of the state form a pull force, which jointly promote doctoral students to make decisions to work in government sector. In this paper, the fact that the Chinese government introduced the ‘special selected graduates’ scheme for doctoral students from prestigious universities in hope of recruiting intellectual elites to improve the quality of civil servants and the modernization level of social governance. Universities encourage PhD graduates to enter the government, hoping that this would enhance their social influence and reputation, thereby safeguarding their status as prestigious universities. From an institutional perspective, the process of doctoral students becoming civil servants can be said to be a form of cooperation between the government and universities.

Губернаторские выборы в США как зеркало социально-экономической ситуации (на примере старопромышленного Приозерья в период 1976–2000 гг.)

This article, based on statistical data and other sources, analyzes the results of gubernatorial elections held in the Great Lakes region of the US from 1976 to 2000. This territory is particularly interesting due to the old industrial nature of its economy and the social problems that arose from the partial destruction of traditional manufacturing in the 1960s and 1970s. An analysis of statistical data shows that the labor market situation had a significant influence on the results of gubernatorial elections, while the rise in unemployment noticeably weakened the position of the ruling party, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans were in power. A juxtaposition of two noticeably different periods (1976–1989 and 1990–2000) and a comparison between the Great Lakes region and the US as a whole indicates that the electorate in this old industrial region was highly responsive to changes in the economic situation. The database (with further expansions) may be useful for predicting some domestic political trends and the results of statewide elections in the US.

Public Employer in the Labor Market - the Armed Forces in Public Perception

Public organizations, including the armed forces, like other employers, are looking for candidates for soldiers and military personnel in the labor market. Taking into account the attributes that make up the attractiveness of an employer and their interdependence, a study was carried out in the course of which the aim was to find out how one of the public organizations, the armed forces, is perceived by people who may become soldiers or who may take up a job in the military how the sources of information through which it reaches them are assessed, and which of its features may attract their attention. The goal was achieved by carrying out, in the first quarter of 2022, a nationwide survey of people between the ages of 18 and 44. Aiming to better understand the opinions of respondents, an analysis of the labor market situation in all voivodeships was carried out. To analyze the collected data and present the results, Statistica v.13.3 and R/RStudio software were used. As a result of the survey, it was possible to establish that the armed forces enjoy a high level of trust among citizens. Respondents assessed the qualities and motives, tangible and intangible, that may encourage service and work in the military due to the potential benefits for candidates. From the perspective of the armed forces, indications as to individual elements can be the basis for improving personnel policies and marketing communications.

The fragmented regulation of the traineeship in Hungary

The situation of young workers is determined by the legal regulation of work. Of particular interest in this context is the traineeship, which is statistically proven to be the basis for many young people entering the labour market. In this context, it is especially important that national regulations are clear and stable to ensure the security of young workers. The Hungarian national regulations will be examined in this study, starting with statistical data, i.e. the extent to which traineeships are present, and examining the related legal relationships based on the EU conceptual background, with the aim of exploring whether the Hungarian legal framework guarantees status security for young trainees. Based on the legislation, case law and relevant literature, it can be concluded that the Hungarian national legislation on traineeship is fragmented, non-transparent, complex, and generally does not provide an impeccable basis for improving the labour market situation of young people from a labour law or social security perspective, and shows a number of inconsistencies in national and EU labour law.

Platform labour in contexts of high informality: Any improvement for workers? A critical assessment based on the case of Argentina

AbstractThe article analyses the effects of digital labour platforms in a context characterised by high informality, exploring the way platforms may or may not imply a disruption in this respect. To do so, it examines the labour transitions that lead to platform labour, taking into account the formal status of workers before and after joining platforms, as well as their evaluation of resulting labour conditions. The article relies on a quantitative survey and in depth interviews for three on‐demand occupations in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, ride‐hailing, home repairs and domestic service. Results show that a platform's influence on the formal status of workers (and their assessment of it) is highly contingent upon: the platform's business model, including the legal status that may be used to integrate the workforce, the pre‐existing formal/informal dynamics within the occupation and the general labour market situation.

Socio-Economic Dimension of Human Potential of World Countries in the Digital Space of the Labor Market

The article examines the special socio-economic conditions of human potential, which forms and expands the flow of labor in the international digital labor market. The concept of the socio-economic dimension of human potential based on the unity of its components is presented. The hypothesis of effective use of human potential at all levels of its formation is justified by relevant HRM technologies that align the labor market situation with the rate of modernization of business, state policy, and social institutions, as well as the new nature of the digital economy's growth. It is also demonstrated that, in the context of the informational transformation of the labor market, the concentration, implementation, and effective socio-economic dimension of human potential form a consistent state policy, which is strengthened by the possibilities of territorial decentralization and is aimed at overcoming disparities in the use of human resources, reducing the gap between potential and existing social-economic level of development of the countries of the world. The authors also provide the sectoral structure of employment in Ukraine and the average annual rate of growth of the indicator level in the leading countries with a digital direction of labor market development, as well as comparative socio-economic measurement and forecasting of Germany's effective use of human potential, subject to the expansion of labor inflows and the improvement of the working capacity of active human resources.

노동조합이 임금프리미엄과 임금불평등에 미친 영향

This paper analyzed the effect of labor unions on wage premium and wage inequality using establishment-worker linked panel data which combines workplace panel survey from 2014 to 2019 with employment insurance data.
 First, an unconditional quantile regression methodology was used to estimate how much union wage premiums differed over the entire sample during the period. The result shows that the union raises the wage premiums of the 40th quartile wage group the most and decreases the effect toward the low wage group and especially the high wage group. It seems that union represent the economic interests of the middle and lower wage groups most.
 Estimating the relationship between the inequality index by business establishment and the unionization rate using the fixed effect, the unionization rate showed a statistically significant negative(-) relationship with all inequality indexes such as the Gini coefficient, the Tile index, the Palma ratio, and the p90/p10 quantile.
 The above estimation results imply that labor unions have had a statistically significant impact on inequality reduction in the labor market of at least the sample (business establishment with 30 or more employees), and it is necessary to consider progress in unionization as a way to improve the unequal labor market situation in the future.

Pelatihan Pembekalan Prakerin Siswa Jurusan Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak Pada SMK UISU Siantar

UISU Siantar Vocational School is one of the private vocational schools and is one of the best Vocational Schools in Siantar. All SMK students are required to take part in industrial/prakerin work practices. The problem faced by partners is that when industrial work practices students do not have knowledge about the world of work and work ethic. A provision is needed for SMK students before industrial work practices take place. The training is carried out by providing material on an overview of the current labor market situation and the prospects for various types of jobs in the future. This activity is carried out by discussing between the training participants and the speakers. After training, the next stage in this activity is mentoring or teacher guidance. In the mentoring activities the training students are taught practice in behaving during the apprenticeship. The purpose of this activity is that students can get maximum work experience while carrying out an internship. Not only that, it is hoped that this internship activity can be used by students to demonstrate their abilities or capabilities in the world of work so that many people believe in and are interested in their abilities.

Sickness absence due to mandatory COVID-19 certificates in the workplace

BackgroundAs vaccines for COVID-19 became available, many countries introduced an obligation in 2021 for employees to prove their COVID-19 status at work, known in Germany as the 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered, tested). In view of the controversial debate, there was concern that employees might try to avoid providing mandatory COVID-19 certificates by taking sick leave. The aim of this study was to investigate whether mandatory COVID-19 tests in the workplace led to such an evasive response.MethodFor an empirical panel analysis, we collected data from official sources and combined aggregated health insurance data on sick leave, epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections, and vaccination rates for the German states from September 2021 to January 2022. We used a regional panel data analysis to estimate the impact of the mandatory COVID-19 certificates at the workplace on workers’ sick leave. The regional vaccination rate reflected differences in treatment intensity.ResultsThis study contributes to the limited evidence on the potential impact of introducing mandatory COVID-19 certificates at the workplace on sickness absence rates. In fact, our results showed that after controlling for infection rates, a one percentage point lower vaccination rate led to a 0.021 percentage point increase in the sickness absence rate when the 3G rule came into effect. This effect was measured with high statistical precision. In addition, in robustness checks, we controlled for a number of other possible influencing factors that may have affected sickness behaviours, such as time-varying labour market situations. However, the results remained robust.ConclusionsThe results of our empirical panel analysis implied that mandatory COVID-19 certificates in the workplace led to evasive responses and to additional days of sick leave of a relevant magnitude. Testing obligations were meant to help contain the epidemic. However, when introducing controversial obligations, it is important to consider evasive responses and to design the rules appropriately and communicate them convincingly.