Labour Market Indicators Research Articles

Small area estimates of the low work intensity indicator at voivodeship level in Poland

Abstract The EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) has provided annual estimates of the number of labour market indicators for EU countries since 2003, with an almost exclusive focus on national rates. However, it is impossible to obtain reliable direct estimates of labour market statistics at low levels based on the EU-SILC survey. In such cases, model-based small area estimation can be used. In this paper, the low work intensity indicator for the spatial domains in Poland between 2005-2012 was estimated. The Rao and You (1994), Fay and Diallo (2012), and Marhuenda, Molina and Morales (2013) models were applied. The bootstrap MSE for the discussed methods was proposed. The results indicate that these models provide more reliable estimates than direct estimation.

Impact of Demonetization on Employment in India: Issues and Challenges of Labour Market

Demonetization is a conventional practice in monetary policy to embark upon black money. However, it was meant to be suddenly implemented. Long-ago, demonetization has taken place twice but it failed because the idea is to tackle the black money existing in circulation. This wasn’t for tackling corruption that’s what Government is not saying that 100% corruption will be tackled and also if announcement and time would have been given, this step might not have been successful in controlling black money and counterfeit currency in circulation coming from Pakistan, Nepal or other countries. Demonetization is a course of extraction of an exacting form of currency from circulation. The existing form of money has chosen from transmission and retired, to be put back with new notes or coins. The newest demonetization measures taken by the Indian Government on November 8th 2016, in an attempt to hold back corruption and black money has resulted in a massive amount of involuntary consequences. While the key objective following this budge is commendable, the planning and implementation of the scheme left much to be required from a policy point of view. This step has caused rolling impact throughout the economy, departing the most sectors reasonably crippled owing to the unanticipated cash crisis. The labour market in India has been witnessing numerous uncertainties including the problem of world recession, and growing ‘automation’ particularly in the manufacturing sector. More precisely, in the last one and a half decade, India has emerged a global power in terms of the development or diffusion of new technology in the form of ICT. ICT intensity, defined as the ratio of ICT investment to non ICT investment, has increased significantly across industries led to ‘automation’ in most production (and distribution). Its impact on productivity led growth, and direct employment is well documented. However, its negative employment impact, particularly in the ICT using manufacturing sector has largely been ignored. So, in a situation, when the debate, whether the net employment impact of ICT on the economy as a whole is positive, is still un-conclusive; any major policy change like ‘demonetization’ is likely to make the employment scenario further volatile by causing uncertainties to rise in labour market, mainly the informal employment.

Rethinking the Role of Employment Barriers in Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from a Fixed Effects Analysis

ABSTRACT Using a panel dataset from a five-wave survey of participants in Singapore’s Work Support Programme (WSP) from 2010 to 2016, we quantify the cumulative negative impact of facing multiple employment barriers and demonstrate the association between the individual stressors and labor market indicators. Using a fixed effects model to reduce the confounding effects of unobservables, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of employment barriers brings about a 2.7 to 3.5 percentage point increase in the probability of being unemployed and a 58 SGD to 78 SGD decrease in individual earnings.

Automation, AI and the Future of Work in India

PurposeThis research contributes to current debates on automation and the future of work, a much-hyped but under researched area, in emerging economies through a particular focus on India. It assesses the national strategy on artificial intelligence and explores the impact of automation on the Indian labour market, work and employment to inform policy.Design/methodology/approachThe article critically assesses the National Strategy on AI, promulgated by NITI Aayog (a national policy think tank), supported by the government of India and top industry associations, through a sectoral analysis. The key dimensions of the national strategy are examined against scholarship on the political economy of work in India to better understand the possible impact of automation on work.FindingsThe study shows that technology is not free from the wider dynamics that surround the world of work. The adoption of new technologies is likely to occur in niches in the manufacturing and services sectors, while its impact on employment and the labour market more broadly, and in addressing societal inequalities will be limited. The national strategy, however, does not take into account the nature of capital accumulation and structural inequalities that stem from a large informal economy and surplus labour context with limited upskilling opportunities. This raises doubts about the effectiveness of the current policy.Research limitations/implicationsThe critical assessment of new technologies and work has two implications: first, it underscores the need for situated analyses of social and material relations of work in formulating and assessing strategies and policies; second, it highlights the necessity of qualitative workplace studies that examine the relationship between technology and the future of work.Practical implicationsThe article assesses an influential state policy in a key aspect of future of work–automation.Social implicationsThe policy assessed in this study would have significant social and economic outcomes for labour, work and employment in India. The study highlights the limitations of the state policy in addressing key labour market dimensions and work and employment relations in its formulation and implementation.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the impact of automation on work and employment in India. It provides a critical intervention in current debates on future of work from the point of view of an important emerging economy defined by labour surplus and a large informal economy.

(Em)Powered by Science? Estimating the Relative Labor Market Returns to Majoring in Science in High School in India

Despite widespread belief that majoring in science in high school has a greater payoff in the Indian labor market than majoring in business/humanities, there is no hard evidence to substantiate this thought. Here I provide the first evidence of the causal effect of majoring in science on individuals’ labor market outcomes relative to majoring in business/humanities using microdata from India. Estimating the causal effect, however, is a formidable task since selection into high school major is nonrandom and exclusion restrictions are unavailable. I circumvent these difficulties by employing an econometric technique that does not rely on valid exclusion restriction for identification. I find that majoring in science has a negative causal effect on individuals’ employment probability. Conditional on being employed, however, majoring in science has a positive causal effect on individuals’ earnings and probability of being engaged in a professional occupation. These findings suggest, in contrast to conventional wisdom, the labor market effects of majoring in science in high school in India is not a plain tale of ‘science premium’ - while majoring in science might lead to relatively better labor market outcomes for those who are able to find employment, finding employment itself is more difficult for science majors.

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.

Functioning of the Regional Labor Market in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The global spread of COVID-19 has also affected the labor market. The government's medical and epidemiological measures created the prerequisites for another socio-economic crisis. Since the pandemic is associated with the preservation of the human resource, therefore, its consequences assessment is relevant. This paper explores the special parameters that can characterize trends in the social and labor sphere. The data from the Territorial Body of State Statistics for the Irkutsk Region (Irkutskstat) for the years 2018-2019 and for the 1st half of the 2020 year used as the information base of the study. It was revealed that the regional labor markets reacted adequately to the crisis signals of the spread of the coronavirus. The regional labor market indicators have negative trends and reflect the growing social tension. The study results show the increasing volume of retirement. By way of example, the share of people seeking work and recognized as unemployed have significantly increased for first half of 2020. The declared number of workers who are going to be laid off has almost doubled (by 193 %). This means that the number of unemployed will grow steadily. In these conditions, it is necessary to carry out monthly monitoring of changes in the situation in the regional labor market. The phenomenon of using remote work requires a separate study.

(Em)powered by Science? Estimating the Causal Effect of High School Major Choice on Labor Market Earnings in India

Despite widespread belief that majoring in science in high school has a greater payoff in the Indian labor market than majoring in business/humanities, there is no hard evidence to substantiate this thought. Here I provide the first evidence of the causal effect of majoring in science on individuals' labor market outcomes relative to majoring in business/humanities using nationally representative data from India. Estimating the causal effect, however, is a formidable task since selection into high school major is nonrandom and exclusion restrictions are generally unavailable. I circumvent these difficulties by employing a recently developed estimator that does not rely on valid exclusion restriction for identification. I find that majoring in science has a negative causal effect on individuals' employment probability. Conditional on being employed, however, my results indicate that majoring in science has a positive causal effect on individuals' labor earnings and probability of being engaged in a professional occupation. These findings suggest that the labor market effects of majoring in science in high school in India, contrary to conventional wisdom, is not a plain tale of 'science premium'.

Occupational Segregation in the Indian Labor Market: A Socio-religious Perspective

This paper is an attempt to understand the occupational segregation among socio-religious groups in India. Using Employment and Unemployment Survey 2011–2012, the paper builds index of dissimilarity and Hutchens square root index to measure the segregation. The paper has found that segregation in general is higher in urban areas than in rural areas and among females than males. The highest segregation is, however, recorded between Hindu STs/SCs and Muslim OBC in urban areas, followed by Hindu others and Muslim others. The value of segregation index is the least in the case of Muslim OBC and Muslim others, confirming the almost similar pattern of occupations between them. Regular employment seems to emerge as driver of occupational segregation for males, while both regular employment and self-employment drive segregation among females. On the other hand, rising education levels raise segregation among males of all socio-religious groups. We also found that Muslim-populous states have low segregation, while Muslim-sparse states have high segregation between Hindu and Muslim. The occupations in which Muslims and Hindu STs/SCs are concentrated, have poor indicators of work decency.

Revisiting the Shift in Youth Labour Market vis-à-vis the Economic Development in India

The significance of youth in the economic development of a nation is well comprehended, while the role of economic transformation in ensuring a successful School-to-Work transition for the younger generation has remained a solemn challenge, especially for the developing countries. Therefore, the objective of this study is to understand School-to-Work transition among the younger generation, considering key indicators of the Indian labour market during the post-reforms period. The findings implicate specific enigmatic changes in the labour market—despite decent economic growth, the declining labour force participation, declining employment and increasing unemployment across gender and sector persist as a significant challenge to a thriving School-to-Work transition for the younger population of the country. Youth—being the prospective human capital—remains highly vulnerable in the Indian labour market, and prospects for their transition in the labour market are skimpy and shrinking, while the challenges remain multidimensional.

Удаленная работа как возможность формирования занятости в условиях неравномерного распределения плотности населения

In this article highlights the question of the phenomenon of remote work and its ability to involve a large number of people in labor relations and employment. The authors outline the problematic field of the formation of the effects of remote work on social, labor and demographic aspects. For this purpose, were characterized the main indicators of the Russian labor market and its informal sector, the unevenness of the population density in the regions of Russia, which can change, including under the direct influence of distance employment of people who do not migrate for job search. Analyzed the readiness of labor market subjects for this type of employment. And by this, are offered methodological approaches to the development of employment policy at the national and regional levels, taking into account the expansion and opportunities of remote employment.

Understanding labour market disruptions and job losses amidst COVID-19.

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown on labour market in India. By using the data of centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE)’s consumer pyramids household survey (CPHS), the paper analyses the magnitude and nature of job losses and consequent unprecedented rise in unemployment across gender, social group, occupations during April–June 2020. It finds widespread job losses in labour market with some sections of the society, including small traders, self-employed, migrant workers, daily wage labourers, youth and women being worst affected, who mostly work in the informal sector of the Indian economy. Agriculture sector acted as a sponge by absorbing surplus labour during the times of COVID-19, which was being gradually vacated earlier over the years due to several well-known reasons. The rate of recovery in labour market has been comparatively much slower in case of salaried jobs, youth employment, particularly in rural areas and with elementary education. The economic consequences such disruptions on employment front were even much more serious as a very low percentage of households reporting improvement in their incomes. The most worrying aspect is that though the return to normalcy may take some time, there has been general recessionary trends in employment in India, which have been visible much before the COVID-19 crisis. The policy measures need to be extraordinary in such difficult times, focusing on securing employment and welfare of affected workers through sound and effective social protection programmes along with a major drive for promoting labour-intensive economic activities such as micro- and small enterprises, extension of employment security to poor urban households and skilling/reskilling of labour force to work in post-COVID-changed situations.

Spreading Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates: A Natural Experiment for Italy

AbstractMany previous studies have documented the procyclicality of fertility to business cycles or labour market indicators in Western countries. However, part of the recent fertility decline witnessed since the Great Recession has been left unexplained by traditional measures. The present study advances the notion that birth postponement might have accelerated in response to rising uncertainty, which fuelled negative expectations and declining levels of confidence about the future. To provide empirical support for the causal effect of perceived uncertainty on birth rates, we focus on Italy’s sovereign debt crisis of 2011–2012 as a natural experiment. Perceived uncertainty is measured using Google trends for the term ‘spread’—which acted as somewhat of a barometer for the crisis both in the media and everyday conversations—to capture the general public’s degree of concern about the stability of Italian public finances. A regression discontinuity in time identifies the effect of perceived uncertainty on birth rates in Italy as a drop between 1.5% and 5%, depending on model specification.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR MARKET PROCESSES IN RUSSIA

An important indicator of the development of the Russian economy, which characterizes the effectiveness of employment policy, is the indicator of the employment level, which is a part of the system of indicators of tension on the labor market. The article is devoted to the analysis of the processes of population employment and the labor market, which directly affect the socio-economic development of the country and its regions. The use of statistical tools allows to identify quantitative patterns of labor market indicators and makes it possible to regulate it. The purpose of the work is to study the processes of employment and the labor market in the Russian Federation. The direction of the research consists in the formation of an informational methodological and analytical approach, which includes the identification of the stages of the development of employment processes and the assessment of the dynamics of negative processes in Russia. The deepening of the analysis of negative processes on the labor market in Russia is associated with the study at the regional level. The use of content analysis and the method of expert evaluation based on integral indicators allowed to identify 5 qualitatively homogeneous groups of regions in terms of the level of tension on the labor market. The obtained results of the analysis of the number of employed people dynamics, the need for workers and the development of the labor market in the regions of Russia can be used by government bodies in the development of state programs to improve the ways to support employment in the Russian Federation.

Interpreting the Caste-based Earning Gaps in the Indian Labour Market: Theil and Oaxaca Decomposition Analysis

The UN states that inequalities are determined along with income by other factors - gender, age, origin, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation, class, and religion. India, since the ancient period, has socio-political stratification that induced socio-economic inequality and continued till now. There have been attempts to reduce socio-economic inequality through policy interventions since the first plan, still there are evidences of social and economic discrimination. This paper examines earning gaps between the forward castes and the traditionally disadvantaged caste workers in the Indian labour market using two distinct estimation methods. First, we interpret the inequality indicator of the Theil index and decompose Theil to show within and between-group inequalities. Second, a Threefold Oaxaca Decomposition is employed to break the earnings differentials into components of endowment, coefficient and interaction. Earnings gaps are examined separately in urban and rural divisions. Within-group, inequalities are found larger than between groups across variables; with a higher overall inequality for forward castes. A high endowment is observed which implies pre-market discrimination in human capital investment such as nutrition and education. Policymakers should first invest in basic quality education and simultaneously expand post-graduate diploma opportunities, subsequently increasing the participation in the labour force for the traditionally disadvantaged in disciplines and occupations where the forward castes have long dominated.

COVID-19 Lockdown, Family Migration and Unemployment in a Gendered Society − A Trade-Theoretic Analysis

COVID-19 has posed severe challenges not only to researchers in the field of medicines and natural sciences but also to policymakers. Almost all nations of the world lockdown have been chosen as an immediate response to this pandemic crisis. Given that the labour market in India continues to be gendered with gender-based wage differentials besides occupational segregation, women who are the marginalized section in the society bear the brunt of the unprecedented COVID-19 lockdown. Against this backdrop, a multi-sectoral general equilibrium model has been constructed with heterogeneity in the pattern of migration (i.e., with and without family migration) that has been derived from the intra-household bargaining problem among unskilled families to analyze the gendered effect of the pandemic. Lockdown has been conceptualized as a government-controlled exogenous policy instrument to restrict human mobility in the contact-intensive economic activities which have multi-dimensional effects in the form of adverse-supply shock (high transaction cost), restricted use of labour, adverse demand shock and a high psychological cost on unskilled labour which caused distress among the urban migrant workers. A family-based migration equilibrium has been derived that generalizes the conventional Harris-Todaro (1970) and Chandra and Khan (1993) migration equilibrium. The results of the paper reflect internal contradictions of developing economies that have a conditional-conditioning relationship with an archaic structure.

Wage Gap Between Formal and Informal Regular Workers in India: Evidence from the National Sample Survey

This article elucidates the wage differential between formal and informal workers across different sectors, gender, occupation, and industry by using the 61st (2004–2005) and 68th (2011–2012) Rounds of National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) unit-level data. The study emphasizes two things: first, identifying the existence of the absolute wage gap between formal and informal workers and, second, finding the intensity of discrimination in wage between formal and informal workers. The vast body of literature available on this issue identifies gender, caste, religion, and region as the factors causing wage discrimination. This literature makes a shift from these traditional concepts by explaining the importance of job contract as a basis of wage discrimination. This study utilizes the percentage relative gap (PGR) to work out the absolute wage gap between the two types of workers (formal and informal) and thereafter decomposes it to arrive at the source of the wage gap. The study applies the threefold Blinder–Oaxaca (B–O) decomposition method, which categorizes the total wage gap into three parts. The dependent variable chosen for the equation is the natural logarithm of daily wage. While the wage gap between formal and informal workers did not significantly fall during the study period, the results, on the other hand, indicate that the component of discrimination is larger than the component of endowment. This explains the discrimination perpetrated against informal workers in the Indian labor market. Tackling such discrimination necessitates implementation of more proactive policies for achieving wage equality in India.

The linkage between innovation and labour market performance: some empirical evidence from the Nordic region

It is common knowledge that innovations are the drivers of economic growth. However, the direct relationship between innovation and socio-economic performance is questionable. In the article, we examine the linkage between innovation performance, measured by the Summary innovation index, and labour market indicators in Nordic countries, being the leaders of innovation performance and welfare states at the same time. The study shows that employment is growing among people with higher education with the improvement of innovation performance. At the same time, there is a large share of unemployed among low-skilled workers, which also tends to grow. The causality test analysis between Summary Innovation Index and labour statistics by Granger test for panel data does not reveal the causal relationships.

Do occupation, work status and gender cause variations in wages Case of Indian labour market

Do occupation, work status and gender cause variations in wages Case of Indian labour market

Gender Discrimination and the Biased Indian Labour Market: Evidence from the National Sample Survey

Gender gaps in wages are a reflection of inequality and discrimination. This exists across region, sector, type of work and other divisions. Discrimination, is a presence of inequalities between male and female workers with similar skills and in similar occupations. Therefore only understanding wage inequality may be looking at the problem partially. Using the Indian National Sample Survey, the paper examines the facets of gender-based wage inequality and discrimination in regular and casual workers. First, Theil index is calculated to interpret within and between groups inequalities. Then, a Three-fold Oaxaca decomposition method is utilised to divide the wage gaps between explained, unexplained and interaction components. Results show that even though the returns on education are higher for women than men at each level of education, females continue to earn less. Wage gaps largely attributed to unexplained components and more prominent in occupational divisions. Discrimination is greater in regular employment as compared to casual employment; higher in urban as compared to rural areas and gets worse at lower level of occupations. It is also observed that women workers are discriminated against on the basis of age; and gender inequalities are worse than social inequalities.