Labor Supply Research Articles

The impact of social features on the financial sustainability of pension systems in Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic States

This paper analyses the financial sustainability of pension systems from the perspectives of labour supply, population aging, and demographic changes. The time period chosen was 1995 to 2022 and it takes into account nine countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. The econometric modelling techniques used are traditional linear regression, ridge and lasso regression, cross-validated glmnet models, and xboost flexible model used for the whole nine countries and also for country groups. The empirical results show that government expenditures and revenues in terms of social security funds are influenced by the demographic changes of the population that we face nowadays, are bound to the population aging phenomenon, and are dependent upon the elderly labour supply movements. The conclusions of this article reveal the practical need to reshape the financial sustainability of pension systems in all nine countries by developing a sustainable pension scheme that needs to be adjusted to the new social, demographic, and behavioural patterns of labour supply.

Impact of the input of women’s working hours on household non-economic welfare

BackgroundThe economic functions of families are strengthened by the labor supply of family members. However, an in-depth discussion can still be held on the impact of the labor supply of family members on the non-economic functions of families, such as residential, social and psychological functions. This paper sought to understand the household non-economic welfare of women’s working hours. In addition, the household non-economic welfare effects of women’s working hours in terms of subdividing women’s working hours and fine-tuning household non-economic welfare were explored. The residential, social and psychological effects of women’s working hours were clarified.MethodThis paper addressed the above problems based on Sen’s welfare theory and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, adopted the feasible ability method, and used nationally representative, timely survey data and data from the 2014–2018 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS).ResultsIn this study, it was shown that the psychological effects of women’s working hours are the largest on average, with an average increase of one hour per week boosting psychological effects by 0.53%. The impact of women’s working hours on both residential and social effects has the extreme points of 68.78 and 35.89 h, respectively. By the interval, the residential effects of women’s working hours are 12.7-16.2% compared with those of weekly working hours shorter than 30 h. Additionally, women’s weekly working hours of more than 60 h have the greatest impact on residential effects, which is 16.2%. From the perspective of gender, the residential effects of women’s working hours are above those of men’s working hours. Compared to weekly working hours of less than 30 h, the social and psychological effects of women’s working hours are weaker than those of men’s working hours.ConclusionsThis study not only contributes to the understanding of contributions to households from the perspective of labor value but also provides lessons for enhancing household non-economic welfare.Contributions to the literatureLimited evidence shows the contributions of working hours and healthy family development in social policies.Women’s working hours increase the residential, social and psychological effects of families. Psychological effects are the largest, with an average increase of one hour per week being associated with an increase of 0.53% in psychological effects. The impact of women’s working hours on subjective health is lower than that of men’s working hours.Few studies systematically analyze the impact of women’s working hours on family residence, socialization and subjective health, and thus target family-friendly policies.

Examining the potential impact of universal basic income on labor supply: Focusing on the South Korean models

AbstractOne of the most contentious facets of universal basic income (UBI) debates revolves around its impact on labor supply. Against this backdrop, this study aims to replicate how labor supply responds to changes in net income caused by the implementation of UBI. Using data from the 15th wave of the National Survey of Taxes and Benefits (N = 9342) and a discrete choice simulation model, this study estimated labor supply outcomes under two specific UBI models. The results suggest that UBI exerts minimal negative effects on labor supply among full‐time and part‐time workers and appears to encourage labor force entry among unemployed individuals. These findings offer empirical evidence on UBI's effects, suggesting it may support labor participation without substantial disincentives for employment.

Gamification From Below as by Form of Resistance: Algorithm Control, Precarity, and Resistance Dynamic of Indonesian Gig Workers

ABSTRACTIn the digital gig economy, algorithms serve as primary tools for controlling workers within the labor process. One form of this control is through gamification, which aims to align labor supply with consumer demand, encourage quality service, and enforce worker discipline. This study surveyed of 662 couriers or gig workers in Gojek's Gosend Sameday service. Findings of this study show that Gosend Sameday drivers receive low pay and lack social protection. In light of these precarious conditions, Gojek builds the gamification scheme to incentivize hard work. In responding to the gamification created unilaterally by Gojek (gamification from above), many drivers rejected it. Resistance manifests in two forms: infrapolitics and collective resistance. Infrapolitics is part of the weapon of the weak, which is carried out by rejecting unsatisfactory orders, voicing complaints on social media, and exploiting loopholes in the Gojek driver application. Conversely, collective resistance was carried out with mass actions, strikes, picketing, organizing, and forming unions to build gamification from below. This study contributes to the understanding of how infrapolitics can inadvertently consent to platform capitalism hegemonic regime, suggesting that while drivers may it rejects gamification, the platform continues to influence labor dynamics. Collective resistance, on the other hand, challenges gamification from above and attempts to build gamification from below to create a fairer labor environment for platform drivers.

Impacts of population aging on tourism development in China: direct, indirect and spatial perspectives

ABSTRACT The increase in global life expectancy and population aging profoundly affect tourism development. This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of population aging on tourism development using China’s provincial panel data (2003–2022) and the China Family Panel Studies (2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020). A two-way fixed econometric model and the spatial Durbin model are applied to account for the distinct structures of the datasets. The results show that population aging positively influences tourism development, both directly and indirectly, through labour supply and consumer demand. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that tourism enterprises, Eastern regions, and higher education have significant and positive moderation effects between population aging and tourism development. Population aging also exhibits significant and negative spatial spillover effects on tourism development. This study provides a unified framework to explore the relationship between aging and tourism development, offering new insights into senior tourism and its implications for China’s population aging.

Analysis of the Impact of Chinese Population Aging on Economic Growth and Coping Strategies

Population aging has become a frequent occurrence due to changes in the global population structure, and it has a significant impact on the economic growth of many nations. Particularly in China, with the decline in fertility rates and the extension of life expectancy, the aging problem is further intensifying. The phenomenon of "fewer children and an aging population" is gradually becoming the norm, posing severe challenges to China's economic development. By searching for the relevant population data of the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper analyzes the current situation of Chinese population structure, analyzes the causes of population aging from four aspectsfertility policy, economic and social development, culture and education, and population migration. It also puts forward the impacts of population aging on economic growth, including the decrease in labor supply, the decline in consumption level and the increase in social pension pressure. This paper argues that even though the aging population structure has had a certain impact on China's social economy, people can turn challenges into opportunities. Furthermore, this paper proposes the coping strategies for China's population aging and promoting high-quality economic development, such as improving the elderly consumer market, giving full play to the leading role of government planning, improving the quality of the labor force, and forming an age-appropriate society. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical reference and practical guidance for China to cope with the challenges of population aging and the healthy development of population and economy.

Can wage changes solve the labour crisis in the National Health Service?

This study aimed to examine the healthcare labour demand and supply elasticity regarding wage in the National Health Service (NHS) in England amid a labour crisis. A simultaneous error-correction regression analysis was conducted using secondary data from the NHS and Office for National Statistics from 2009 Q3 to 2022 Q1. Findings indicate both labour demand and supply of HCHS doctors in the NHS are highly inelastic with respect to real wages, with only a 0.1% decrease in NHS staff hiring and a 0.8% rise in NHS staff's willingness to work as full-time equivalents per 10% wage increase. Approximately 22% of the wage disequilibrium adjusts quarterly, indicating moderate speed of wage adjustment. Our results suggest that wage setting is not a sufficient solution to the labour crisis. Innovative and sustainable solutions are needed to reduce the demand for skilled health labour and increase the supply of health labour.

The Influence of Population Aging on Economic Growth and Countermeasures

The data from the seventh population census in 2020 shows that China's population is aging further, and the long-term and rapid aging phenomenon will have a huge impact on China's economy. Therefore, the extensive repercussions that demographic expansion and the aging populace exert on economic proliferation have arouse wide concern. This paper will use theoretical analysis to explore the influence of the aging demographic on economic growth from the four aspects of effective labor supply, savings and investment, enterprise innovation, and social security, and put forward some policy suggestions to deal with these shocks. The research finds that population aging will affect the effective labor supply and reduce the savings rate. The effect of enterprise innovation will be weakened in promoting population aging and the social security system: the pension insurance system and the medical insurance system will be seriously influenced. Therefore, this paper summarizes how population aging has some influence on China's economic growth from the above four perspectives, and puts forward some suggestions in order to alleviate the bad impact of population aging on economic development. It is suggested to improve the family planning policy, delay retirement, strengthen basic education, encourage technological innovation in enterprises to alleviate the problem of an insufficiently effective labor force, and establish a fully covered pension system to ensure the elder people lead a high-quality life.

Labor Engine or Welfare Trap: New Evidence from the Impact of China's Long-Term Care Insurance Policies on Labor Market Performance

The long-term care insurance system is a crucial social service policy for disabled and elderly individuals with dementia in the context of the unfeasible traditional family old-age care model. Through the support of the social insurance model for old-age care security, it effectively addresses and meets the actual needs of long-term care recipients. This has become a significant way to alleviate the burden of disabled and demented elderly individuals, mitigate the impacts of ageing, and create employment opportunities for family caregivers. Using the long-term care insurance pilot policy implemented in Qingdao in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper estimates the influence of long-term care insurance on the labor market performance of the pilot city using the synthetic control method of project policy evaluation. Several robustness tests of the labor market effects of long-term care insurance are conducted, utilizing two placebo methods based on time and space, and the ranked test method. The study's findings demonstrate that the implementation of the long-term care insurance policy pilot has a constructive influence on the employment choices of workers in the labor market. Specifically, it encourages participation in the workforce and expands the scale of labor force participation in the pilot cities. Furthermore, the policy's effect strengthens over time and has a marked positive effect on average employee wages, thereby spurring labor supply growth. Through further analysis, it can be determined that the pilot cities have contributed to an average annual growth of around 1 million people in total labor force participation between 2013-2017, surpassing the potential growth rate by approximately 10.5%. Additionally, during this period, the average employee wage displays a linear upward trend with a maximum increase of over 5,000 pounds per capita per year. This suggests a substantial effect on the overall performance of the labor market due to its growth-promoting influence. In addition, the analysis of the heterogeneity of its impact mechanism demonstrates that the long-term care insurance policy aims to enhance the willingness of tertiary industry workers to work and considerably increase the likelihood of their entry into the labor market. It also improves labor income expectations of urban private and self-employed workers, resulting in a virtuous circle of enhanced labor and employment driven by the increased value of labor and the strengthened willingness to participate.

When weather wounds workers: The impact of temperature on workplace accidents

We study the effects of temperature on occupational health using administrative data on Swiss occupational accidents from 1996 to 2019. Our results imply that on hot days (Tmax≥ 30 °C) the number of occupational accidents increases by 7.4% and on ice days (Tmax< 0 °C) by 6.3%, relative to mild days. We find that extreme temperatures cause an average of 2600 workplace accidents each year, costing CHF 91 million annually. We provide suggestive evidence for insufficient sleep on hot days as a mechanism. While extreme temperatures worsen occupational health, we observe limited labor supply adaption for most workers.

A Cohort Replacement of Household Labour Supply in Germany and the UK

In recent decades, fluctuating unemployment rates and welfare state retrenchment have led to increased levels of economic insecurity in some countries. At the same time, cultural norms and family policies have become more gender-egalitarian. While earlier research related these trends to the decline in the male breadwinner model, little is known about whether recent cohorts who entered adult life against the backdrop of a new socio-economic opportunity structure have established new configurations of household labour supply. Using sequence analysis and cluster analyses across harmonised longitudinal data (GSOEP, BHPS and Understanding Society) for a sample of adults born between 1961 and 1973 in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), this study introduces an innovative indicator of household labour supply types and new descriptive findings on the cohort replacement of household labour supply in these two countries. Descriptive findings show that recent cohorts in both Germany and the UK are forming more gender-egalitarian households, as reflected by the decline in the male breadwinner model as well as by the rise of 1.5-male breadwinner households in Germany and dual-earner households in the UK. However, the proportion of single and low labour intensity households in recent cohorts has declined in the UK, while there has been no meaningful change in East Germany and a strong increase in West Germany. The evolution of household labour supply types can be attributed to the replacement of cohorts who entered adulthood and established their households under shifting socio-economic contexts and gender ideologies.

Good personality traits in bad times: Does conscientiousness mitigate the adverse effects of graduating in a recession?

This paper studies whether and how conscientiousness, a personality trait, helps individuals mitigate the adverse effects of graduating during a recession on early career outcomes. By analyzing college-educated individuals who graduated in the 1980s, we find that conscientiousness reduces the income losses of workers who graduated during a recession. This effect results mainly from workers’ adjustments in the labor supply. When graduating during a recession, college graduates high in conscientiousness are more likely to find full-time jobs and work more hours per week than their counterparts low in conscientiousness. Regarding the other four Big Five personality traits, while agreeableness has a modest effect on mitigating the effects of adverse labor market entry conditions on hourly wages, extraversion, openness to experience, and emotional stability do not appear to buffer against such early career losses. Additionally, cognitive ability does not offset the challenges posed by graduating during a recession.

Gender differences in later life: labor supply responses to spousal disability

Gender differences in later life: labor supply responses to spousal disability

An overlapping-generations model with data-driven equilibrium behavior

We propose a class of overlapping generations models that can serve as a workhorse for policy analysis. Recent literature identifies several features of key observable economic variables in Europe and the U.S.: the life-cycle path of earnings is hump-shaped, while the aggregate variables — per-capita consumption and labor hours — exhibit a clear time trend. Our class generates non-monotonic life-cycle behavior of labor supply and the desired aggregate trends in all its balanced-growth equilibria (BGE). There is a finite number of these equilibria and at least one of them exists provided a single-generation consumer problem has a solution. The model has a constant-returns-to-scale production, non-trivial depreciation of capital, exogenous labor-saving growth and an arbitrary individual life-cycle productivity. The necessary restrictions imposed on preferences are consistent with those generating the aggregate trends in a representative-agent economy, while ruling out popular specifications such as Cobb–Douglas or CES. We characterize BGE with MaCurdy preferences and solve a parametrized model that yields at least two stationary equilibria with reasonable interest rates. The hump-shaped life-cycle consumption profile can be generated with an additional parameter interpreted as reflecting family structure or a desire for immediate gratification that peaks at mid-life.

How Does China’s Agricultural Subsidy Policy Drive More Commercially Productive Small Farmers? The Role of Farmland Scale, Labor Supply, and Cropping Structural Change

This study investigated the impact of China’s agricultural subsidy policy on farmers’ commercial production, indicated by sales market participation. A nationally representative survey data, panel Tobit model, IV Tobit model, and the Correlated Random Effects (CRE) approach were used. The findings reveal that farmers receiving agricultural subsidies have improved crop sales’ share of total output value. Mechanism analysis reveals that agricultural subsidies have driven up farmland scale and increased agricultural labor supply in production, incentivizing the motive for profit maximization among farmers. Meanwhile, agricultural subsidies also encourage farmers to cultivate more grain crops. Policymakers should continue deepening the reform of agricultural subsidies and promoting farmer specialization and commercial production. Moderate-scale operation of farmland should be one of the targets of agricultural subsidies.

Achieving inclusive urbanization through county-led industrial specialization: from the perspective of rural labor supply

PurposeThe role of intermediate urban centers (IUCs) (like towns/small cities/rural counties) between large cities and villages in leading urbanization has been increasingly highlighted. This article conceptually and empirically examines what types of industrial agglomeration (specialized or diversified agglomeration) of rural county in China would provide a more inclusive and efficient local labor market for rural workers to be inclusively urbanized.Design/methodology/approachWe employ a three-stage labor supply model to theoretically generalize the decisions of rural workers to migrate to large city, to undertake nonfarm jobs in rural counties and the length of nonfarm jobs. Then, combining three national-level datasets of China (National Economic Census (NEC), China Household Income Project (CHIP) and the China county statistical yearbook), we explore how the type of industrial agglomeration in a rural county affects the labor supply decision of rural workers.FindingsWe show that rural workers in rural counties with higher level of industrial specialization are more likely to: (1) work locally than migrating to large cities; (2) find nonfarm jobs by themselves instead of relying on social networks (3) find a more stable and formal nonfarm job. These effects are significant when rural counties specialize in industries that they have local comparative advantages compared to large cities. This work provides insights into achieving inclusive urbanization by developing industry specialization in rural counties in China, which may also be useful for other developing countries.Originality/valueFirst, the conceptual framework of this paper extends the basic model of rural-urban migration longstanding in the literature, to a multi-choice and three-stage labor supply model. Second, we empirically quantify the industrial structure of rural counties using unique dataset, which has been emphasized in the development economics literature but neglected due to data limitations. Third, this paper expands our understanding of the role of rural counties in inclusive urbanization and contributes to the future development of the county-led urbanization policies.

Brexit consequences on supply chains: towards a risk management framework

ABSTRACT This article investigates Brexit-induced consequences on supply chains and logistics – as well as potential solutions and strategies by carrying out a content analysis through a literature review, the first to our knowledge. Our findings reveal that Brexit-induced consequences for supply chains include increased customs duty rate, labour supply issues, increased costs related to expected delays, tariff and nontariff barriers, added complexity to guarantee food safety, authenticity or security, increased food prices, as well as low-skilled households carrying the major load. Our findings regarding typical supply chain strategies or solutions for abovementioned Brexit-induced consequences include supply chain redesign, relocation of operations and markets, changing sourcing countries or regions, new information and communication technologies solutions such as traceability and blockchains, vertical and horizontal collaboration, resilience, better risk-recovery strategies, as well as the switch to ‘other’ metrics. Another result refers to the fact that we observe only a low level of theoretical grounding in (supply chain) risk management literature among the considered articles.

The effect of alimony on married women's labor supply and fertility: Evidence from state‐level reforms

AbstractReforms that reduce spousal support after divorce are generally thought to reduce the bargaining power of alimony recipients as well as their incentives to participate in the traditional model of household specialization. Using the U.S. Time Use Survey and exploiting a series of recent reforms in several U.S. states that reduced the rights of eligible spouses, we find that wives surprised by the reforms reacted by increasing their labor supply, but the adjustment mechanism varied by educational group. While college educated wives' labor supply increased at the expense of time spent on housework and childcare, wives with less than a college degree sacrificed personal care and leisure time. Effects for men are generally smaller and not statistically significant. We also find a reduction in the rate of new births following the reforms, with the effect being much more pronounced in the case of women with a university education, suggesting that part of the difference in time use may be attributable to differences in preferences and the cost of children by educational levels. Since children are a marital public good, our results imply a decrease in marriage‐specific investment. The estimated effects are robust to various sensitivity tests and are greater in couples with a high‐income differential and therefore more exposed to changes in alimony laws.

Impact of population ageing on fiscal balance in the European Union

In the past two decades, the EU has experienced low fertility rates and declining mortality rates leading to population ageing. Although increasing immigration and longer life expectancy reinforced population growth, these trends could not counterbalance the negative impact of low birth rates on labour supply. Demographic transition towards an aging society is characterised by increase of public health and pension expenditures, as well as decrease of tax revenues that are triggers for fiscal imbalance. The paper aims to analyse the effects of population ageing on government fiscal balance in the EU-27 by applying modern methods of panel data analysis in the period 2001-2021. The dependent variable is general government fiscal balance, while the explanatory variables are related to demographic transition indicators (population aged over 64 in total population, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditures) and macroeconomic control variables. The results of research show that population ageing has created a significant negative impact on fiscal balance of the EU countries, which was confirmed by all the analysed models. The fixed-effects panel threshold model did not identify a statistically significant threshold of any demographic transition indicator, concluding that population ageing has equally negatively affected fiscal balance, independent of the values of demographic transition indicators.

The geographies of housing assetization (2023) Plenary Commentary

ABSTRACT Raquel Rolnik’s plenary lecture on housing financialization acrodass Latin America gives us fascinating insights into how housing assetization, rental platformization and global landlordism are inextricably tied to each other. For Rolnik, housing now is the new frontier of accumulation and precarity which is made possible through the support of the state. In this commentary I will engage with Rolnik’s argument on three specific aspects and how they might impact her analysis – the role of the state in a digital era, the stickiness of global platforms, and the geographies of housing assetization. I will argue that we need a deeper understanding of the role of the digitalizing state in regulating platform assetization as part of the entire ecosystem of property relations that begin with land accumulation. This suggests that seemingly placeless global platforms are sticky and relies upon a steady supply of fungible land and labor in local contexts. While land and housing are associated with each other, I argue that there are differences between assetization of public land and publicly owned land, where the former is seen as more desirable for privatization and extractive capture.