Labor Market Impact Research Articles

The Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions

The Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions

The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions

The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions

Immigration, legal status and fiscal impact

We develop a general equilibrium model with search frictions in the labor market, wage bargaining and a welfare state, to study the impact of immigrants on the fiscal balance and welfare of natives in the host country. We distinguish immigrants by legal status and account for both their direct fiscal effects, through their tax contributions and transfer receipts, and their indirect fiscal and welfare effects, through their labor-market impact. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and find that legal immigrants reduce the tax burden on natives and increase natives' welfare, mainly because their tax contributions greatly exceed the transfers they receive. On the other hand, illegal immigrants' positive welfare impact stems mainly from their positive effect on job creation, which increases income to natives and in turn consumption. A legalization program leads to a fiscal gain, increases natives' welfare and is more beneficial to natives than a purely restrictive immigration policy that reduces the illegal immigrant population.

GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs.

Research is needed to estimate how jobs may be affected.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Unemployment and Future Work

The rapid development of artificial intelligence should also affect the world market. Unemployment is ex- pected to increase as artificial intelligence can perform tasks performed by humans in many different sectors. The eight- year study (2010-2017) investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment in 26 developed and devel- oping countries. More precisely, this study uses data analysis techniques to investigate how the use of artificial intelligence technology affects unemployment in 26 different sectors. The results of a data study compiling World Bank and OECD data show a positive relationship between advances in artificial intelligence and unemployment. The advancement of artificial intelligence is determined by patent information. Due to the differences in artificial intelligence development between the countries studied, artificial intelligence development has been shown to have a positive impact on the unemployment rate in the studied countries. Additionally, compared to younger workers, older workers with higher education may have less impact on employment due to improved skills. Finally, re- search and development (R&D) spending varies widely across countries, making it difficult to aggregate. Therefore, this study does not show the relationship between the share of R&D expenditures in GDP and how artificial intelligence affects unemployment. One of the most talked about topics in the public today is intelligence. Many people associate this with changes in the economy, especially changes in the economy that are generally expected to cause high unemployment. As artificial intelligence becomes more widespread, the public tends to predict which professions will become obsolete and eventually disappear. The healthcare sector is one of the most challenged sectors outside of production due to various medi- cal treatment studies. There are other scientists who disagree with this bad proposition. They argue that the emergence of artificial intelligence will create new jobs, just like all previous economic revolutions. Keywords-- Artificial Intelligence, Unemployment, Future Work, Impact, Automation, Job Displacement, Skills Gap, Job Creation, Manufacturing, Retail, Healthcare, Reskilling, Upskilling, Policy, Regulation, Mitigation Strategies, Labor Market, Education, Training, and Economic Impact.

Policies for young adults with reduced work capacity. Labour market impact in Sweden and Norway

The rising numbers of young people with disability pension concerns many advanced economies. We present results from a comparative analysis of the neighbouring countries Sweden and Norway on the impacts of differing policy mixes aimed at enhancing the employability of the work disabled. Using rich longitudinal data, we follow unemployed young adults (ages 25-29) with work-impairment up to four years after they became unemployed to investigate the effect of different types of labour market policies. Our results indicate that, despite differences in programme composition and strategies, there are surprisingly small country differences in treatment effect patterns and signs of estimated impacts. In line with previous studies, we find strong lock-in effects of both workplace-related programmes and training/educational programmes. After participation, workplace-related programmes about double the likelihood of entering regular employment or education. Participating in training courses also increases this likelihood, but effect sizes are smaller.

Long-term unemployment subsidies and middle-aged disadvantaged workers’ health

This paper examines the labour market and health effects of a non-contributory long-term unemployment (LTU) benefit targeted at middle-aged disadvantaged workers. To do so, we exploit a Spanish reform introduced in July 2012 that increased the age eligibility threshold to receive the benefit from 52 to 55. Our results show that men who were eligible for the benefit experience a reduction in injury hospitalisations by 12.9% as well as a 2 percentage points drop in the probability of a mental health diagnosis. None of the results are significant for women. We document two factors that explain the gender differences: the labour market impact of the reform is stronger for men, and eligible men are concentrated in more physically demanding sectors, like construction. Importantly, we also find evidence of a program substitution effect between LTU and partial disability benefits. Our results highlight the role of long-term unemployment benefits as a protecting device for the (physical and mental) health of middle-aged, low-educated workers who are in a disadvantaged position in the labour market.

Structural reforms and income distribution: new evidence for OECD countries

Abstract This article examines the impact of labour market and product market reforms on income inequality for 25 OECD countries between 1970 and 2020, using the local projections approach and an updated narrative-based dataset of the reform indicators. Our results suggest that both types of (endogenized) market-oriented reforms increase income inequality, but the effects are small. Consistent with this finding is that counter-reforms lead to less income inequality. Our results also indicate that the inequality-increasing effect of market-oriented reforms is mostly a result of more income going to the top of the income distribution.

Mapping the literature on decent work: A bibliometric analysis of sustainable development goal 8

AbstractThe bibliometric study based on the Scopus database aims to investigate the global literary development of “decent work” over a span exceeding two decades. The noticeable surge in publications since 2015 underscores the growing significance of the concept. Limited representation of lower‐middle and lower‐income countries, except India, among the top 10 contributors is observed, revealing a considerable research gap in the study of decent work. The research highlights five principal themes: the labor market's impact on economic development, corporate social responsibility and sustainable development, gender equality, governance, and social justice, as well as decent work, job quality, education, well‐being, and job satisfaction. The study also shows the importance of the topic in different fields. Future researchers may consider the variables or indicators identified for surveys and questionnaire construction.

Intersectional Analysis of the Labour Market Impacts of COVID: The Triple-Whammy of Females, Children, and Lower Skill

Intersectional Analysis of the Labour Market Impacts of COVID: The Triple-Whammy of Females, Children, and Lower Skill

Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation

Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation

The labor market impact of Covid-19 on Asian Americans

The labor market impact of Covid-19 on Asian Americans

Can You Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation

Can You Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation

The Italian gender gap in pensions: A cohort of birth approach

Introduction: The text discusses the gender pension gap in rich countries, focusing specifically on Italy. The paper delves into the evolution of this gap across different generations, analyzing social security reforms and their impact on retirement incomes. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding these disparities for designing effective pension systems that address gender inequalities and ensure well-being in retirement.Objective: The aim of the article is to investigate the gender pension gap, specifically in the context of Italy, by analyzing the factors contributing to this disparity, including late entry into the job market, wage gaps, and caregiving responsibilities. The study focuses on understanding the impact of social security reforms and the pension system on these gender inequalities, aiming to provide insights for the design of equitable pension systems.Materials and methods: The article utilized administrative data from the Italian National Institute for Social Security (INPS) covering pension payments from 1995 to 2022. The study employed a cohort perspective, analyzing the evolution of the gender pension gap across generations and examining the impact of social security reforms and labor market arrangements.Results: The main conclusion of the study indicates that while the absolute gender disparity in mean retirement income has increased across cohorts of Italian retirees born between 1930 and 1954, the relative gender gap, when considering men's average pension, has decreased over time. Additionally, the impact of survivor's benefits has been significant in reducing the gender disparity in pensions, particularly in the later stages of life. Furthermore, the study found that the impact of social security reforms in Italy has been limited, primarily affecting the youngest cohorts, with most retirees still relying on the dominant defined benefit component for their pensions.

The Impact of Precarious Labor Market on the Mental Health of Disabled Paid-Workers: Focusing on the Mediation Effect of Self-Efficacy

The Impact of Precarious Labor Market on the Mental Health of Disabled Paid-Workers: Focusing on the Mediation Effect of Self-Efficacy

Labour market impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic in the West Bank and Gaza

AbstractThis article studies the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on men's labour supply in the West Bank and Gaza, both on the extensive (participation) and intensive (hours of work) margins. We find that the pandemic was associated with a decline in employment and labour supply in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, with large adjustments at the intensive margin. Afterwards, labour market indicators quickly bounced back to their pre‐pandemic levels, but less so for the most vulnerable segments of the workforce, such as informal workers, workers in blue collar occupations, the least educated, and residents in refugee camps.

The labor market impact of inflation uncertainty: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past decades, monetary policy has been receiving increasing attention in the explanation of the raising share of unemployment in developing countries, especially in the context of the debate on inflation targeting. This study contributes to the current debate by revisiting the effect of inflation (IF) and its uncertainty (IFU) on employment in an inflation-driven labor demand framework applied to 26 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1996–2017. The combination of threshold and quantile regression methods points to an asymmetrical effect of IF and IFU on employment across different labor demand spectrums. The respective threshold levels of IF and IFU are approximately 6.07% and 0.75%. While inflation negatively influences employment beyond the estimated threshold, a reverse effect is observed for inflation uncertainty. Overall, the negative net effect of IF and IFU on employment exceeds the corresponding net employment gains, especially among non-inflation targeting countries with lower levels of employment. One fundamental implication is that policy makers should adopt explicit inflation- and uncertainty-targeting policy framework in order to sustain labor market outcomes.

Financing the green transition. The role of macro-economic policies in ensuring a just transition

The transition to a green economy requires significant resources, both from private investors and public policy makers with important implications for employment and living standards. This paper argues that green macro-economic policies are essential in accelerating the transition through three channels: they can strengthen the price signals from externality pricing; they can mobilize additional public and hybrid funding for green transition projects; and they can soften the social and labor market impact of the transition for those workers currently still employed in polluting industries. The paper provides an overview of the main fiscal, monetary and financial market policies that can help provide the necessary fund for a successful transition. It highlights different trade-offs regarding instrument choice and policy outcomes, notably regarding the need to achieve a transition that is both ecological and socially sustainable. We provide an overview of current policy choices and document their economic, social and ecological outcomes. In particular, we demonstrate that the proper use of price regulation and financial instruments—carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes, green bonds, nature-based capital—can mobilize additional resources that can be usefully invested to ensure a socially just transition.

The Role of Social Cooperatives in Hungary Over the Past Ten Years – From a Regional Labour Market Perspective

Abstract Subject and purpose of the work: The aim of the research is to show how the effectiveness and regional labour market impact of social cooperatives in Hungary has evolved over the past 10 years. Materials and methods: The research database is based on a database of domestic enterprises. It includes data on the assets and income of social cooperatives for the past 10 years. Results: It analyses the evolution of the number of social cooperatives in space and time, in parallel with a legal and support environment. Focusing on a ten-year time horizon, it has examined the areas where the evolution of the number and activity of social cooperatives has had a greater impact on the labour market situation. Conclusions: It has shown that changes in the legal environment have significantly increased the number of social cooperatives. It has shown that, despite the increase in numbers, the cooperatives studied have survived in large numbers. It has shown a positive contribution to employment.

Labor market impact of China’s cross-regional environmental regulation on pollution-intensive firms

The relationship between environmental regulation and labor demand has been mixed. Few research studies have considered the impact of cross-regional environmental regulations on the labor market, even though this is notable. We adopted a geographic regression discontinuity (RD) approach to investigate the labor market impact of the cross-regional environmental regulation “2 + 26” Cities Special Emission Limit Program for Air Pollutants. We found that the policy significantly boosts the labor demand of polluting firms rather than a simple inter-industry transfer, mainly through increasing investment in fixed assets and cost offset mechanisms. Further analysis of the structure of labor demand shows that the increasing workforce is primarily low-quality labor accompanied by wage loss. The government should recognize the risks of welfare loss from low-quality work due to environmental regulation and direct polluting firms to innovate rather than reduce costs by increasing demand for low-quality labor. This facilitates a better understanding of the labor market response to environmental policy from the perspective of cross-regional environmental regulation.