Labor Hoarding Research Articles

Hiring opportunities for new firms and the business cycle

AbstractWhether firms founded during or outside economic crises have greater growth potential is an important question for both prospective entrepreneurs and policy makers. Existing research offers conflicting answers, and mostly either focuses on aggregate cohort-level effects or selectively excludes small new firms from the analyses. Using extensive linked employer-employee data on young German firms around and during the Global Financial Crisis, a period of sharply reduced access to external capital and recession, we show that young firms respond to cyclical conditions in highly heterogeneous ways. Our firm-level results reveal that the average new firm found it easier to hire its first employees when it was founded during the crisis. These firms achieved countercyclical growth by hiring career entrants. More specifically, hiring in very young (<1.5 years) and small to medium-sized (below the 90th percentile) young firms was countercyclical, while this was not the case for older and larger young firms. Thus, the firm-specific effects for young entrepreneurial firms may be very different from those reported in previous research. Our results suggest that market entry during a crisis may facilitate hiring and that policies that promote entrepreneurship may usefully complement policies that encourage labor hoarding by incumbents during recessions.

Zombie lending, labor hoarding, and local industry growth

After the bursting of real estate bubbles in 1991, Japanese banks continued lending to unviable firms to conceal problem loans. We revisit Japan’s experience and propose a new mechanism via which banks’ loan-evergreening policy undermines allocative efficiency across industries by focusing on construction and real estate loans. Namely, banks’ continuing support for construction and real estate firms encourages labor hoarding in unviable construction projects. Since construction projects predominantly use low-skilled workers, banks’ loan-evergreening policy in these troubled sectors may depress other low-skilled industries. Based on the industry-level data in each of Japan’s 47 prefectures from 1992 to 1996, we document empirical facts consistent with this hypothesis. On average, low-skilled industries experienced disproportionately slower output and employment growth and more sluggish growth in the number of new establishments in prefectures where the share of bank loans to local construction/real estate sectors increased more after construction boom ended.

Short-time work, labor hoarding, and curtailed hiring: establishment-level evidence from Japan

This study analyzes the mechanisms by which short-time work (STW) schemes affect firm’s employment adjustments, using establishment-level data during the Great Recession from Japan. The findings show that STW leads to a decrease in both hiring and separations, with no significant positive effect on net employment. The observed curtailed hiring can be explained within the context of how STW promotes labor hoarding. STW encourages firms to maintain redundant employment by subsidizing the costs of labor hoarding. The excess labor surplus in firms adopting STW diminishes the incentive to recruit new workers in anticipation of the recovery period. Furthermore, as firms generally lack the motivation to hoard marginal workers, STW may exacerbate job security disparities between regular and marginal workers. These findings have important implications for policy evaluation, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the potential adverse consequences of STW on labor market entrants and marginal workers.

The productivity puzzle and the decline of unions

This paper finds that rapid de-unionization can explain the sudden vanishing of the procyclicality of productivity in the U.S. during the 1980s, a phenomenon dubbed the ‘productivity puzzle’. Cross-sectional evidence from U.S. states and industries shows that a decline in union power led to a decrease in the cost of hiring and firing workers, which prompted firms to rely less on labor hoarding, making productivity less procyclical. In a model with endogenous worker effort, a decrease in employment adjustment cost by the amount implied by de-unionization explains a significant part of the observed decline in the procyclicality of productivity.

Employment protection and labour productivity growth in the EU: skill-specific effects during and after the Great Recession

Does employment protection affect sectoral productivity growth differently during crises and recovery periods? This paper sheds light into this question by investigating the relationship between employment protection legislation (EPL hereafter) and sectoral labour productivity growth in the EU in the context of the Great Recession. We consider the crisis and recovery periods, evaluate the relevance of both levels and changes in EPL for productivity growth, and explore the conditioning role played by sectoral differences in terms of cumulativeness of knowledge as well as the skills of the labour force, captured by different levels of education. We find that stricter labour protection reduces labour productivity growth in sectors with a large share of workers with tertiary education, whereas this effect is negligible or positive in sectors where workers with secondary or only primary education are more prevalent (such as agriculture, mining and quarrying). We attribute this to a more intensive labour hoarding in the former, as EPL strengthens labour hoarding in sectors that rely on firm-specific knowledge accumulation and skilled human capital that are difficult to substitute with physical capital. Whereas it is simple to dismiss (and to find later) unskilled employees. They not only can be substituted more easily with capital, but also the costs of their firing are lower, they are overrepresented among workers holding temporary contracts, and they might be unequally informed and able to exercise their rights. This leads to low (if any) labour hoarding and little impact of EPL on labour productivity in such sectors. We also document that the negative effect is prominent only during the crisis, and an increase in the stringency of EPL over an extended period stimulates employers to substitute labour with investments in physical and knowledge capital.

Task Content and Job Losses in the Great Lockdown

The author examines the short-term labor market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (aka the Great Lockdown recession) in the United States. Findings show that the task content is an important predictor of job losses; jobs with a high non-routine cognitive content are especially well-protected, even if they are not teleworkable. Teleworkability matters more for low-paying jobs. The importance of task content, particularly for non-routine cognitive tasks, is strong even after controlling for demographics and for differential sector and location shocks, while effects persist in the medium run. Jobs subject to higher structural turnover rates were much more likely to be terminated, suggesting that easier-to-replace employees were at a particular disadvantage, even within sectors. At the same time, labor hoarding may occur for more valuable matches. Individuals in low-skilled jobs fared comparatively better in industries with a high share of high-skilled workers, suggesting complementarities across skill types.

Subsidizing Labour Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment and Welfare Effects of Short-time Work

Abstract Short-time work (STW) policies provide subsidies for hour reductions to workers in firms experiencing temporary shocks. They are the main policy tool used to support labour hoarding during downturns and were aggressively used during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Yet, very little is known about their employment and welfare consequences. This article leverages unique administrative social security data from Italy and quasi-experimental variation in STW policy rules to offer evidence on the effects of STW on firms’ and workers’ outcomes during the Great Recession. Our results show large and significant negative effects of STW treatment on hours, but large and positive effects on headcount employment. We then analyse whether these positive employment effects are welfare enhancing, distinguishing between temporary and more persistent shocks. We first provide evidence that liquidity constraints and rigidities in wages and hours may make labour hoarding inefficiently low without STW. Then, we show that adverse selection of low productivity firms into STW reduces the long-run insurance value of the program and creates significant negative reallocation effects when the shock is persistent.

Relationship Lending and Employment Decisions in Firms’ Bad Times

AbstractUsing firm-level survey information, we investigate whether relationship lending affects firms’ employment decisions in the face of negative sales shock. We find that firms with a durable relationship with their main bank display significantly less employment growth sensitivity to such shocks, especially where these are transitory. The result is stronger for younger and smaller firms that benefit from tighter bank-firm relationships, and for firms in sectors or economic environments where the costs of employment adjustment are greater. Our findings indicate that relationship lending provides liquidity insurance to firms to meet their demand for labor hoarding.

The euro area’s pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation

This paper augments the European Commission’s open-economy DSGE model (GM) with COVID-specific shocks (‘forced savings’, labour hoarding) and financially-constrained investors to account for the extreme volatility of private domestic demand and hours worked during COVID-19, and it estimates the model on euro area data for the period 1998q4–2021q4. It takes a pragmatic approach of adapting the workhorse model of a policy institution to COVID-19 data. ‘Forced savings’ are central to explain quarterly real GDP growth during the pandemic, complemented by contributions from foreign demand and trade, and the negative impact of persistently higher savings after the first wave. We provide extensive model validation, including a comparison to off-model evidence for COVID-related restrictions, and a comparison of different model specifications.

The Seasonal Labor Hoarding in Tourist Enterprises—Choice or Necessity?

The seasonality of tourism demand is a natural condition for the functioning of tourist enterprises and affects the choice of employment practice. The aim of the research is to identify the practices of employing workers in tourism industry enterprises and try to understand the determinants of these decisions. The main research questions were what employment practices are used in tourist enterprises and how does the opinion on the condition of the local labor market influence this choice? It was assumed that, in the tourism industry, seasonal fluctuations can be treated the same way cyclical fluctuations are treated in the analysis of dynamic labor demand. The basis for the conclusions was the results of a survey conducted in the tourism industry enterprises in the seaside region of Poland. In the tourist region of the Polish Baltic Sea, 75.6% of tourist enterprises use the practice of total or partial labor hoarding, and 24.4% of enterprises do not use the practice of labor hoarding. They immediately adjust employment to seasonal changes in demand.

Employment protection regimes and dismissal of members in worker cooperatives

In connection with the "Great Reset" literature in management and organizational theory, this article discusses human resource sustainability, employment stability, and layoffs in worker cooperatives, a unique organizational form in which employees are members holding residual control rights. Theoretical and empirical contributions show that worker control stabilizes employment better than investor ownership, opening the door to stronger employment protection. The paper leverages key theoretical insights from evolutionary economics and systems theory to discuss the benefits and critical elements associated with limiting member layoffs in worker cooperatives. While strong employment protection can lead to short-term inefficiencies and underperformance due to labour hoarding, imperfections in governance and control mechanisms, it can foster better accumulation and retention of firm-specific human capital and dynamic capabilities, thereby supporting long-term performance.

Should We Insure Workers or Jobs During Recessions?

What is the most efficient way to respond to recessions in the labor market? To this question, policymakers on the two sides of the pond gave diametrically opposed answers during the COVID-19 crisis. In the United States, the focus was on insuring workers by increasing the generosity of unemployment insurance. In Europe, instead, policies were concentrated on saving jobs, with the expansion of short-time work programs to subsidize labor hoarding. Who got it right? In this article, we show that far from being substitutes, unemployment insurance and short-time work exhibit strong complementarities. They provide insurance to different types of workers and against different types of shocks. Short-time work can be effective at reducing socially costly layoffs against large temporary shocks, but it is less effective against more persistent shocks that require reallocation across firms and sectors. We conclude that short-time work is an important addition to the labor market policy-toolkit during recessions, to be used alongside unemployment insurance.

Do labour hoarding practices stimulate training investments? Evidence from the Italian Great Recession

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between labour hoarding practices and training investments during severe economic downturns focusing on the case of Italy during the Great Recession.Design/methodology/approachData come from the 2010 Italian wave of Continuing Vocational Training Survey (CVTS). Econometric estimates plug a proxy of labour hoarding into the probability function that firms provide either off-the-job or on-the-job training. A bivariate selectivity probit model is also used for robustness sake.FindingsResults show that labour hoarding should not be considered as an enhancer of training investments when considered as a standing-alone practice in presence of severe and deep economic downturn. However, labour hoarding does not penalize off-the-job training investments if it occurs in an innovative firm or in a firm that perceive specific skill requirements in the workforce during the recessionary period.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the debate on the role of labour hoarding during severe recessions by showing that it cannot be functional to re-oriented firms’ investments aimed at upskilling their workforce. It is only compatible with new training courses that accompany the workforce across a technological transition. Policy implications deals with the suitability of job retention schemes or state-financed furlough during recessions, as occurred during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Cui bono – business or labour? Job retention policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Europe has been faced with multiple challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the problem of how to secure jobs and earnings. In our comparative analysis, we explore to what degree European welfare states were capable of responding to this crisis by stabilising employment and workers’ incomes. While short-time work was a policy tool already partly used in the 2008/2009 Great Recession, job retention policies were further expanded or newly introduced across Europe in 2020 in the wake of the pandemic. However, cross-national variations persist in the way in which these schemes were designed and implemented across European welfare states, aiming more or less to hoard labour and thereby avoid mass dismissals throughout the employment crisis. We distinguish between business support and labour support logics in explaining the variation in job retention policies across Europe. Our finding is that Continental, Mediterranean and liberal welfare states did more to foster labour hoarding using short-time work than Nordic or Central and Eastern European countries.

Shape matters: cost curves and capacity utilization in U.S. manufacturing

This study investigates the shape of cost curves and cost components of twenty industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the 1958–2010 period. After aggregating data for the 459 industries of the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification (SIC), I analyzed, at both sectoral and two-digit levels, the behavior of unit variable costs for different levels of output, as represented by a proxy for capacity utilization. In addition, I decomposed the cost structure into payroll, wages, and material costs. Results show that the unit variable costs of the large majority of industries present constancy around the trend of the output series, giving support therefore to the hypothesis of a post-Keynesian inverted L-shaped cost curve that, at the aggregate level, shows a considerable range of constancy in unit direct cost curves around normal capacity utilization. In addition, decomposition in material and labor costs shows that labor hoarding is a generalized phenomenon in the manufacturing sector, shown by the steeper slopes of the local regression fits for payroll and wage costs in relation to material costs.

Hours and income dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic: The case of the Netherlands

Using customized panel data spanning the entire year of 2020, we analyze the dynamics of working hours and household income across different stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Like many other countries, during this period, the Netherlands experienced a quick spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, adopted a set of fairly strict social distancing measures, gradually reopened, and imposed another lockdown to contain the second wave. We show that socioeconomic status is strongly related to changes in working hours, especially when strict economic restrictions are in place. In contrast, household income is equally unaffected for all socioeconomic groups. Examining the drivers of these observations, we find that pandemic-specific job characteristics (the ability to work from home and essential worker status) help explain the socioeconomic gradient in total working hours. Household income is largely decoupled from shocks to working hours for employees. We provide suggestive evidence that large-scale labor hoarding schemes have helped insure employees against shocks to their employers.

Fiscal Integration in an Experimental Union: How Path-Breaking Was the EU's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Fiscal Integration in an Experimental Union: How Path-Breaking Was the EU's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic?

COVID‐19 and the uncertain future of HRM: Furlough, job retention and reform

The article argues that job retention should be a central aim and practice of human resource management (HRM). Set against the global COVID‐19 crisis, theoretical insights are drawn from strategic HRM planning and the economics of ‘labour hoarding’ to consider the potential benefits of workforce furloughing. Furlough has been supported in the UK by the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which represents a novel, but temporary, state‐led shift from the UK's market‐orientated restructuring regime. We argue that the withdrawal of state‐financed furlough may mean a quick return in UK firms to the management of redundancy. Yet, if the crisis is to generate any benefit it must create the conditions for a more collaborative HRM that delivers for workers as well as business, with job retention as a core priority. While change in this direction will mean confronting deep‐rooted challenges—such as job security, good work and worker voice—such change remains vital in creating better and healthier workplaces.

Employment adjustment and financial tightness – Evidence from firm-level data

Firms tend to only partially adjust their workforce to changes in output. Typically, labour is hoarded in downturns; subsequently, firms have to hire less workers in upturns, but they can do so only if they can bear the current costs of keeping superfluous workers so that the firms can save rehiring costs in the future. Therefore, labour hoarding can be seen as an investment and may be influenced by factors, such as the firms’ financial shortages, that tend to impede investments. Using Swiss firm-level data, we show that for firms in financially strained situations, the sensitivity of employment to fluctuations in output increases considerably. When output changes, financially tighter firms resize their labour force more than firms that have abundant funding. Both limited internal funding opportunities as well as the reduced access to external finance are important. The strongest impact, however, is observed when internal and external financial tightness occur jointly. In that case, compared to firms that are not in a financially strained situation, firms in a financially strained situation lay off twice as many employees. The amplifying effect of financial tightness is similar in upturns and downturns, implying that financially tight firms not only reduce their workforce more when demand decreases but also hire more labour when demand increases.

Heterogeneity in Manufacturing Growth Risk

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable goods sector. Moreover, we show that industry characteristics significantly explain these differences. Large, or material intensive durable goods producing, or energy intensive nondurable goods producing industries are more vulnerable to adverse financial conditions, while industries engaging in labor hoarding, or with a high capital or overhead labor intensity are less susceptible.