Knowledge Of Climate Variability Research Articles

Assessing Seasonal and Inter‐Annual Marine Sediment Climate Proxy Data

AbstractThree recently published papers including Napier et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021PA004355) utilize novel microanalytical approaches with varved marine sediments to demonstrate the potential to reconstruct seasonal and inter‐annual climate variability. Obtaining paleoclimate data at a resolution akin to the observational record is vitally important for improving our understanding of climate phenomena such as monsoons and modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, for which appraisals of past inter‐annual variability is critical. The ability to generate seasonal and inter annual resolution sea surface temperature proxy time series spanning a thousand years or more is revolutionary and has the potential to fill gaps in our knowledge of climate variability. Although generally limited to sediments from regions with oxygen depleted bottom waters, there is great potential to integrate shorter seasonal resolution climate “snap shots” from other archives such as annually banded corals into composite time series. But as paleoceanographic data are used more by the observational and modeling fields, we make the case for conducting a thorough case‐by‐case assessment of the processes that influence the climate signal recovered from proxies, using careful replication to validate new approaches. Understanding or exploring the potential influence of processes which effectively filter the climate signal will lead to more quantitative paleoceanographic data that will better serve the broader climate science community.

Assessment of NASA POWER for Climate Change Analysis using the De Martonne Climate Index in Northern Peninsular Malaysia

Global warming is threatening human population, one of which is the frequent climate disasters, i.e., floods and drought, which affect the global food security. However, the assessment of regional climatic changes is constrained by the lack of high-quality long-term climate data. Taking the Northern Region of Peninsular Malaysia as the study area, this paper aims to assess the performance of NASA POWER in estimating annual and seasonal variability of the climate variables via De Martonne climate indices from 1985 to 2021. The findings shows that NASA POWER performed satisfactory in estimating both mean temperature and rainfall over the northern Peninsular Malaysia. The NASA POWER project performs the best in Bayan Lepas station with C = 0.70 for annual mean temperature while for annual rainfall is at the Ipoh station with C = 0.50. The annual De Martonne climate index shows that the study area is dominated by wet climate conditions, since the index classify the climate as “very humid” to “extremely humid”. The De Martonne climate indes is calculated from both data source is very similar. Therefore, NASA POWER data is useful in climate studies, while the knowledge of climate variability is beneficial for climate change mitigation and adaptation plans, particularly for agriculture.

Profit Efficiency, Weather Risk and Climate Adaptation Practices of Rice Farmers in Myanmar

In recent years most developing countries, including Myanmar, have been seriously affected by the negative effect of climate variability—such as erratic rainfall, increased temperatures, longer dry spells, flooding and saltwater intrusion—during the crop growing season. Furthermore, most farmers lack knowledge of climate variability and how to cope with the negative effect of climate change. This study aimed to evaluate the profitability and profit efficiency of rice farmers in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, during 2019 monsoon growing season, taking into consideration the effect of weather shock and farmers’ agricultural adaptation practices to climate variability. The Cobb-Douglas functional form was applied, with maximum likelihood techniques, to estimate rice growing productivity and the influencing factors of profit inefficiency among individual rice farmers. The average profit efficiency level of the yield loss group was approximately 0.39, while that of the no yield loss group was 0.66, indicating a relatively large gap between the two groups (27% wider distribution). Observation of the climate adaptation performances of rice farmers indicated that rice production incorporating climate adaptation practices (CAP) led to a significantly better average profit efficiency score (66%) than rice production omitting CAP. This study clearly revealed that the effect of weather variability on individual rice farmers leads to large variations in net profit and profit efficiency for monsoon rice production in the study area. Climate-smart agricultural practices should be developed through agricultural extension services, and using farmer-to-farmer extension services, to share information and technologies among smallholder rice farmers.

Elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in rural Ghana

PurposeThis paper aims to examine elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in the Offinso Municipality, Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThis paper used quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data were analyzed with frequencies and chi-square tests, whereas qualitative data were thematically analyzed.FindingsThe results showed that elderly smallholder farmers’ knowledge of climate variability and climate change were based on their sex, level of formal education and experience in farming. Elderly smallholder farmers adopted both on-farm and off-farm strategies to cope with climate change and variability. The vulnerability of elderly smallholder farmers to climate change calls for social protection mechanisms such as a pension scheme that guarantees access to monthly cash transfers. Such a scheme will ease constraints to livelihood and ensure improved well-being.Originality/valueElderly smallholder farmers have remained invisible in discourses on perceptions and adaptation to climate change despite the surge in number of this category of farmers. This paper therefore represents an attempt to highlight the experiences of elderly smallholder farmers with climate variability and change.

Reconstructing Northeastern United States temperatures using Atlantic white cedar tree rings

Our knowledge of climate variability in the densely populated Northeastern United States is limited to instrumental data of the last century. Most regional paleoclimate proxies reflect a mix of climate responses, which makes reconstructing historical climate a challenge. Here we analyze tree-ring chronologies from Atlantic white cedar (Chamaecyparis thyoides) as a potential regional paleotemperature proxy. We evaluate our tree-ring network for spatiotemporal climate signal strength and reconstruction skill across New England. Atlantic white cedar sites in the northern section of the species’ range exhibit positive significant annual growth relationships with local and regional temperatures. Chronologies constructed from northern sites yield skillful reconstructions of temperature that reproduce centennial, multidecadal, and interannual variability in the instrumental record, providing a novel paleotemperature record for New England.

The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area.

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Northern Hemisphere Climate Variability: Character, Forcing Mechanisms, and Significance of the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation

AbstractThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has long been recognized as an important source of climate variability over the north Atlantic region. The NAO is often referred to as the regional expression of the Arctic Oscillation that reflects a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This review highlights our current understanding of these prominent teleconnection patterns and discusses outstanding questions and challenges that scientists face as they continue to build our knowledge of climate variability and change across the NH. The work discusses the strengths and limitations of the multitude of methods by which these phenomena have been defined, while highlighting recent changes in their character. Addressed also are the various internal and external forcing mechanisms that shape these phenomena and ultimately help define their predictive nature.

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.

Health officials’ perceptions of and preparedness for the impacts of climate variability on human health in the Somali region of Ethiopia

A proactive strategy to respond effectively to health impacts related to climate variability, particularly within vulnerable populations, is of vital importance. Such a strategy can be attained if health officials have a deep understanding of how climate variability affects human health and if the resources available for the health care sector are sufficient. This study assessed the perceptions and preparedness of health officials toward climate variability and health impacts in the Somali region of Ethiopia. The resources available for the health care sector were also assessed. The results show that approximately 80% of health officials were aware of the relationship between climate variability and human health impacts, but the majority of them were unable to project the future trend of related health problems in the region. The results also show an inadequate availability of health care resources, particularly in regards to infrastructure, numbers of health professionals, and training on climate variability and health. The results further revealed problems with poor living conditions, such as access to sanitation and safe water, for the majority of people in the study area. Climate variability is thus one of the many factors exacerbating the increasing trend of human health problems in the Somali region. Besides improving training to increase health officials’ knowledge of climate variability and human health impacts, the government should also address other factors that currently hinder a successful response to increasing disease prevalence.

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change In Agricultural Planning And Operations

Climate variability and change affects individuals and societies. Within agricultural systems, seasonal climate forecasting can increase preparedness and lead to better social, economic and environmental outcomes. However, climate forecasting is not the panacea to all our problems in agriculture. Instead, it is one of many risk management tools that sometimes play an important role in decision-making. Understanding when, where and how to use this tool is a complex and multi-dimensional problem. To do this effectively, we suggest a participatory, cross-disciplinary research approach that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (e.g., climate science, agricultural systems science, rural sociology and many other disciplines) and people (scientist, policy makers and direct beneficiaries) as equal partners to reap the benefits from climate knowledge. Climate science can provide insights into climatic processes, agricultural systems science can translate these insights into management options and rural sociology can help determine the options that are most feasible or desirable from a socio-economic perspective. Any scientific breakthroughs in climate forecasting capabilities are much more likely to have an immediate and positive impact if they are conducted and delivered within such a framework. While knowledge and understanding of the socio-economic circumstances is important and must be taken into account, the general approach of integrated systems science is generic and applicable in developed as well as in developing countries. Examples of decisions aided by simulation output ranges from tactical crop management options, commodity marketing to policy decisions about future land use. We also highlight the need to better understand temporal- and spatial-scale variability and argue that only a probabilistic approach to outcome dissemination should be considered. We demonstrated how knowledge of climatic variability (CV), can lead to better decisions in agriculture, regardless of geographical location and socio-economic conditions.

Dendrochronology in Jordan

Dendrochronology is a valuable tool for the study of past climate and increases our knowledge of climate variability beyond the short period covered by instrumental data. Two annual tree-ring width chronologies were developed for northern Jordan (Pinus halepensis and Quercus aegilops), one chronology for Carmel Mountain, Israel (Pinus halepensis), and one chronology for southern Jordan (Juniperus phoenicia). The results of our study show that the northern site chronologies are significantly correlated, but the northern and southern sites are not. A relatively high correlation was shown between October–April precipitation and a Pinus halepensis chronology, and between October–May precipitation and Quercus aegilops, both in the north. October–May precipitation was reconstructed for the time span AD 1600 to 1995 from the Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology. The longest reconstructed drought, defined as consecutive years below a threshold of 80% of the 1946–1995 mean observed October–May precipitation, was 4 years, compared with 3 years for the 1946–95 instrumental data.

Tillage methods and soil and water conservation in Australia

Tillage in Australia has evolved from ‘imported’ European practices to tillage systems more in tune with ‘older’ fragile soils and more severe climatic conditions. Cereal yields are commonly limited by water supply and the native fertility of many soils is poor. Crop/pasture rotations involving pasture legumes have been the mainstay of cereal production in the winter rainfall areas while production in much of the summer rainfall area has relied more on exploiting native fertility. Soil erosion and structural decline are still considered major issues facing long-term production. The general trend in tillage methods is for less tillage and greater retention of crop residues for soil and water conservation. Tillage experiments have shown that management strategies involving retention of crop residues (stubble), reduced tillage and crop rotation can reduce erosion and improve yield. Results from experimentation are highly variable, both in magnitude and direction of responses to tillage treatments. Much of this variation is due to variation in seasonal conditions. Simulation models are being used to examine management options and to design experiments based on a knowledge of climate variability and physical and biological processes.