Knightian Uncertainty Research Articles

Do Androids Dream of Entrepreneurial Possibilities? A Reply to Ramoglou et al.’s “Artificial Intelligence Forces Us to Rethink Knightian Uncertainty”

Do Androids Dream of Entrepreneurial Possibilities? A Reply to Ramoglou et al.’s “Artificial Intelligence Forces Us to Rethink Knightian Uncertainty”

Corporate credit risk modeling under carbon pricing uncertainty: A Knightian uncertainty approach

This study examines the financial implications of carbon pricing policies within the Knightian uncertainty framework. Employing a dynamic behavioural credit risk model driven by Lévy jump-diffusion, we scrutinise how carbon pricing uncertainty influences default probability and securities value. We explore investors' strategic responses to ambiguity and assess their impact on their investment decisions. Our findings reveal that carbon pricing uncertainty exacerbates the margin of default risk, has a moderating effect on stock value, and makes investors more cautious, thereby altering corporate capital structures. This study contributes to the discourse on carbon credit risk assessment and sustainable finance by addressing policy-driven uncertainties in the financial markets.

Financial ambiguity and oil prices

Recent theoretical developments in economics distinguish between risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Using state-of-the-art methods with intraday stock market data from February 1993 to February 2021, we derive financial ambiguity and empirically examine the effect of shocks to it on the price and volatility of crude oil. We provide evidence that ambiguity carries important information about future oil returns and volatility perceived by investors. We validate these results using Granger causality and in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests. Our findings reveal that financial ambiguity is a possible factor that explains future drops in oil prices and their increased variability. Our findings will benefit scholars and investors interested in how financial ambiguity shapes short-term oil prices.

Chance, probability, and uncertainty at the edge of human reasoning: What is Knightian uncertainty?

AbstractResearch SummaryFor more than a century, Frank Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit has significantly influenced entrepreneurship theory development by exploring the nature of uncertainty and the epistemic limits of entrepreneurial action. Knight's work highlights how economic actors cannot fully predict the consequences of their actions. Despite its broad influence, debates persist regarding the nature of Knightian uncertainty. This study addresses these debates through a comprehensive analysis of RUP and Knight's other published and unpublished writings to offer new insights into the nature and meaning of Knightian uncertainty, revealing Knight's holistic theory that integrates “real indeterminism,” “partial knowledge,” and “subjective beliefs.” This analysis provides much needed construct clarity to advance contemporary theories of entrepreneurial action and the role of uncertainty in business venturing processes.Managerial SummaryThis article revisits Frank Knight's foundational work, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, a cornerstone in entrepreneurship research for over a century. We highlight Knight's holistic approach to uncertainty, which integrates the concepts of real indeterminism (the inherent unpredictability of future events), partial knowledge (the incomplete understanding of the present and future), and subjective beliefs (individual perceptions and interpretations). The study offers new perspectives on how Knightian uncertainty influences entrepreneurial decision‐making and action, highlighting how this unique type of uncertainty plays a critical role in the business venturing process. These insights provide valuable contributions to contemporary theories of entrepreneurship, emphasizing the complexity and multifaceted nature of navigating uncertainty in business.

Artificial Intelligence Forces us to Rethink Knightian Uncertainty: A Commentary on Townsend et al.’s “Are the Futures Computable?”

Artificial Intelligence Forces us to Rethink Knightian Uncertainty: A Commentary on Townsend et al.’s “Are the Futures Computable?”

Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound

This paper studies robust policy when the policymaker has Knightian uncertainty about the exact position of the effective lower bound (ELB). First, we characterize optimal discretionary policy when a benevolent policymaker controls the nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Compared to the full information case, an uncertainty-averse policymaker overestimates the level of the ELB, thereby triggering a more aggressive reduction in the nominal interest rate prior to the liquidity trap. Furthermore, the anticipation of a larger increase in public spending improves the trade-off between inflation and the output gap, and dampens the perceived worst-case level of the ELB. As a result, a less conservative fiscal stabilization is desirable to address the uncertainty concerns of the policymaker by partially substituting for the nominal interest rate at the ELB. Moreover, an inflation-conservative policymaker mitigates the impact of uncertainty on equilibrium outcomes even better than a fiscally active policymaker.

Organizing transactions between entrepreneurs and human capital resources under Knightian uncertainty

Organizing transactions between entrepreneurs and human capital resources under Knightian uncertainty

The Texas Shoot-Out under Knightian uncertainty

We investigate a widely used mechanism to resolve disputes among business partners, known as Texas Shoot-Out, under Knightian uncertainty. For a non-degenerate range of intermediate valuations, an ambiguity-averse divider truthfully reveals their valuation in equilibrium. As a consequence, the resulting outcome is efficient, in contrast to the Bayesian case. With equal shares, both agents prefer ex-ante to be the chooser and would like to avoid triggering the mechanism in the first place.

Heterogeneity of foreign investors and Knightian uncertainty: Evidence from the Chinese capital market

Foreign investors are playing an increasingly important role in China's capital market, and the impact of northbound funds on Knightian uncertainty has attracted much academic attention. Based on the characteristics of northbound funds' trading behavior and investors' shareholding stability, this study divides them into long-term investors and short-term opportunists. It also examines the effect of long- and short-term foreign investors on individual stock Knightian uncertainty. The study finds that higher stability of northbound fund shareholding lowers the Knightian uncertainty of individual stocks, and long-term foreign institutional investors contribute to market stability. Furthermore, long-term investments in northbound funds can reduce Knightian uncertainty by improving the information environment, influencing the trading behavior of institutional investors, boosting investor confidence, and helping investors form consistent expectations. In conclusion, short-term foreign investors aggravate market volatility, whereas long-term foreign institutional investors help stabilize the market.

Ambiguity Aversion and Heterogeneity in Households’ Beliefs

UK households that wish for lower inflation and lower nominal interest rates have higher expected inflation. We interpret the evidence through the lens of a New Keynesian model where ambiguity-averse households differ in wealth, skill, labor market participation, and the receipt of government transfers and are subject to Knightian uncertainty. Households act based on beliefs that are negatively affected by their wishes, the more so the greater the amount of uncertainty. Using indirect inference, we find substantial output costs due to uncertainty. Monetary policy uncertainty contributes little to the costs because households generally dislike monetary expansions. (JEL D12, D81, D83, E12, E31, E43, E52)

Communication under Uncertainty and the Role of Founders’ Information Advantage: Evidence from SPAC IPOs

This study develops a novel framework about how a firm’s financing outcome will be shaped by its communication under different types of uncertainty. Whereas prior work has largely focused on uncertainties that arise because of founders having a knowledge advantage over investors, we examine a firm’s communication in situations of more fundamental uncertainty when both founders and investors face knowledge problems. Our framework proposes that in situations where founders have a knowledge advantage over investors (i.e., when there is information asymmetry), firms that reduce uncertainty by sending signals of quality and express less uncertainty in their communications will enjoy better financing outcomes. However, we argue that in situations characterized by high unknowability, and where founders do not have a significant knowledge advantage over investors (i.e., when there is Knightian uncertainty), firms that acknowledge this unknowability by expressing more uncertainty in their communications will have more favorable financing outcomes. Studying the full population of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) that sought to complete an initial public offering from the emergence of the sector in 2003–2019, we find support for our predictions. This study expands our understanding of the role of uncertainty in investment decisions, offers deeper insight into how language operates in financial markets, and sheds light on the increasingly popular, but understudied, SPAC vehicle. Funding: Ivana Naumovska received financial support from the INSEAD R&D Committee and the INSEAD Dean’s Annual Fund. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/stsc.2022.0043 .

“What Is an Opportunity?”: From Theoretical Mystification to Everyday Understanding

Expressions about opportunities are used unproblematically in everyday contexts. Yet, the question “What is an opportunity?” has posed a difficult riddle in the academic study of entrepreneurship. Drawing on the philosophy of Ludwig Wittgenstein, we explain that such perplexities are common when words are removed from ordinary language and intellectuals try to grasp what they name. Approaching the opportunity riddle differently, we ask, “How do entrepreneurs use the word opportunity?” and elucidate an actualization theory of entrepreneurship attuned to the everyday understandings that underlie the meaningful use of the word. Bringing implicit understandings to the foreground contributes to (1) the dissolution of the mystification over the nature of “opportunity”, (2) the clarification of the conceptual foundations of entrepreneurship theory, and (3) the reorientation of the field toward more conceptually precise ways of thinking about Knightian uncertainty, entrepreneurial success, and the entrepreneurial process. This paper also contributes to the methodology of management studies, by demonstrating how attention to the logic of ordinary language can alert us to theoretical dead-ends and enable the development of theory that bridges academic and everyday understandings.

Are the Futures Computable? Knightian Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence

Are the Futures Computable? Knightian Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence

Measuring individual attitudes towards Knightian uncertainty: New evidence from an artifactual field experiment

Measuring individual attitudes towards Knightian uncertainty: New evidence from an artifactual field experiment

Optimal investments of port authorities facing ambiguity on uncertain market demands

This study explores how two competing port authorities facing ambiguity about uncertain market demands determine their optimal investments. Using the Choquet expected utility function, the port authorities are categorized into four types: ambiguity-averse and risk-averse, ambiguity-neutral and risk-averse, ambiguity-averse and risk-neutral, and ambiguity-neutral and risk-neutral. Each type can reach equilibria through no-port investing, only-one-port investing, or both-port investing. Our findings indicate that considering ambiguity does not alter the types of equilibrium investments for port authorities, regardless of their risk aversion or neutrality. However, the emergence of equilibrium investments for each type is affected by the consideration of ambiguity. Specifically, when risk-neutral port authorities transition from ambiguity-neutral to ambiguity-averse, they will invest more (less) if they are optimistic (pessimistic) enough. Nevertheless, this relationship may not apply to risk-averse port authorities, as the magnitudes of the first to the fourth moments of probability distributions, which maximize and minimize the expected utility of ports, also impact their investment decisions. Importantly, our results hold true even when ports exhibit ambiguity-loving characteristics, possess distinct ambiguity or risk attitudes, consider Knight uncertainty, or compete in prices.

Knightian uncertainty and the limitations of the Savage Heuristic

Knightian uncertainty and the limitations of the Savage Heuristic

Optimal dynamic contract with Knightian uncertainty of ESG rating

In the context of “dual carbon” objectives, ESG investment concept has received wide attention. In this paper, based on stochastic systems and stakeholder theory, we analyze the interest requirements of subject stakeholders and investigate the agency conflict and coordination problems in the system. Combining with the contract theory, we construct a continuous-time principal-agent model with ambiguity aversion under ESG rating Knightian uncertainty. By the method of stochastic calculus in multiple priors, we derive the HJB equation for the optimal dynamic contract value function based on ESG rating Knightian uncertainty under incentive compatibility conditions. Then, for different ESG rating levels, through numerical simulation, we discuss the impact of the Knightian uncertainty degree of ESG rating on the optimal contract. The study shows that as the Knightian uncertainty degree of ESG rating increases, companies are more inclined to green development and the maximum expected return of principals decreases.

A càdlàg rough path foundation for robust finance

Using rough path theory, we provide a pathwise foundation for stochastic Itô integration which covers most commonly applied trading strategies and mathematical models of financial markets, including those under Knightian uncertainty. To this end, we introduce the so-called property (RIE) for càdlàg paths, which is shown to imply the existence of a càdlàg rough path and of quadratic variation in the sense of Föllmer. We prove that the corresponding rough integrals exist as limits of left-point Riemann sums along a suitable sequence of partitions. This allows one to treat integrands of non-gradient type and gives access to the powerful stability estimates of rough path theory. Additionally, we verify that (path-dependent) functionally generated trading strategies and Cover’s universal portfolio are admissible integrands, and that property (RIE) is satisfied by both (Young) semimartingales and typical price paths.

Innovation Under Ambiguity and Risk

Abstract We view innovation investments as real options and explore the implications of risk (volatility) as well as a newly defined outcome independent measure of ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) for innovation decisions. The empirical analysis uses stock returns to compute an implementable measure of ambiguity. We also control for risk and other determinants of innovation. We find a consistently significant negative effect of ambiguity on R&D, patents, and citations, as predicted. The effect of risk on R&D is positive and significant, but the corresponding effect on patents and citations is negative and significant. Ambiguity matters more for high-tech firms, consistent with intuition.

Stock price swings and fundamentals: The role of Knightian uncertainty

As deviations of stock prices from intrinsic values grow, there is a concurrence of novel events that impart instability and, thus, greater uncertainty, onto investors’ understanding of the process driving market outcomes. This paper proxies for Knightian uncertainty based on the frequency of unscheduled, or novel, corporate events reported in the financial news as relevant for share prices and earnings prospects each day. Empirical findings suggest unscheduled events help explain variation in expected returns, especially at longer horizons. Results show a significant positive relationship between the absolute stock price-gap from intrinsic values (based on constant and time-varying returns) and the frequency of unscheduled events through time. When shocks derail the longer-run relationship, the stock price-gap adjusts. Valuation-based gaps generate similar results, but display nonlinear effects with unscheduled events by producing positive and significant coefficients only for the largest absolute gap values.