Km3 Of Ice Research Articles

Glaciers of the Olympic Mountains, Washington—The Past and Future 100 Years

AbstractIn 2015, the Olympic Mountains contained 255 glaciers and perennial snowfields totaling 25.34 ± 0.27 km2, half of the area in 1900, and about 0.75 ± 0.19 km3 of ice. Since 1980, glaciers shrank at a rate of −0.59 km2 yr−1 during which time 35 glaciers and 16 perennial snowfields disappeared. Area changes of Blue Glacier, the largest glacier in the study region, was a good proxy for glacier change of the entire region. Modeled glacier mass balance, based on monthly air temperature and precipitation, correlates with glacier area change. The mass balance is highly sensitive to changes in air temperature rather than precipitation, typical of maritime glaciers. In addition to increasing summer melt, warmer winter temperatures changed the phase of precipitation from snow to rain, reducing snow accumulation. Changes in glacier mass balance are highly correlated with the Pacific North American index, a proxy for atmospheric circulation patterns and controls air temperatures along the Pacific Coast of North America. Regime shifts of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, reflected in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), trigger shifts in the trend of glacier mass balance. Negative (“cool”) phases of the PDO are associated with glacier stability or slight mass gain whereas positive (“warm”) phases are associated with mass loss and glacier retreat. Over the past century the overall retreat is due to warming air temperatures, +0.7°C in winter and +0.3°C in summer. The glaciers in the Olympic Mountains are expected to largely disappear by 2070.

Stress Promotion of the 1958 Mw∼7.8 Fairweather Fault Earthquake and Others in Southeast Alaska by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Inter‐earthquake Stress Transfer

AbstractWe assess how recent glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and inter‐earthquake stress transfer modulated the state of stress on major faults in Southeast Alaska, and how these effects may have influenced recent large and moderate earthquakes. The Glacier Bay Icefield has lost >3,000 km3 of ice since ca. 1770, with ice thinning up to 1.5 km, and the rest of southeast Alaska has been deglaciating since ca. 1900. The resulting GIA response in the solid earth produces present‐day surface uplift rates of up to ∼4 cm/yr, among the fastest on Earth. This rapid deformation occurs directly alongside and atop the Fairweather Fault, which accommodates 4–5 cm/yr of right‐lateral motion through slip in frequent large earthquakes, recently including a Mw∼7.8 earthquake in 1958. We find that the 1958 earthquake nucleated very close to the location of maximum GIA‐induced Coulomb stress increase on the Fairweather Fault between 1770 and 1958 (estimated at ∼0.2–0.6 MPa), on the only section of fault where GIA‐induced stress changes had involved both right‐lateral shearing and unclamping. The September 10, 1899 Mw∼8.1 Yakutat Bay earthquake also promoted failure on at least the northwest part of the eventual 1958 rupture. In turn, the 1899 and 1958 earthquakes and GIA promoted failure along the St. Elias compressional margin, the site of a Mw∼7.4 event in 1979. While rapid tectonic loading is very likely the main driver of earthquakes in southeast Alaska, we estimate that 23 of 30 instrumentally constrained Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in this region were also promoted by post‐1770 GIA.

Volume Changes of Elbrus Glaciers From 1997 to 2017

This study describes the analysis of changes in area and volume of the Mt. Elbrus glacier system, Central Caucasus from 1997 to 2017. It is based on helicopter-borne ice thickness measurements, comparison of high-resolution imagery and two digital elevation models (DEMs) with 10 meter resolution. More than 250 km of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles of ice thickness with reliable reflections were obtained. The total volume of Mt. Elbrus glaciers was 5.03±0.85 km3 of ice in 2017. Our results show that 68% of the total ice volume is concentrated below 4000 m a.s.l. where the average ice thickness was 44.6±7.3 m, 18% of the volume lies within 4000-4500 m a.s.l. (thickness of 41.2±7.3 m), and just 14% lies above 4500 m a.s.l. (thickness of 29.7±6.65 m). The glacier-covered area of Mt. Elbrus decreased from 125.76±0.65 km2 in 1997 to 112.20±0.58 km2 in 2017, a reduction of 10.8%. Over the same period the volume decreased by 22.8%. The mass balance of the Elbrus glaciers decreased by -0.55±0.04 m w.e. a-1 from 1997 to 2017. Mass balance on west-oriented glaciers is less negative than on east-and south-oriented glaciers where mass balance is most negative. The mass balance of the east-oriented Djikiugankez glacier decreased at the fastest average rate (-0.97±0.07 m w.e. a-1). This glacier contains 28% of the total Elbrus glacier system ice volume, most of which is concentrated below 4000 m a.s.l. Only one small glacier on the western slope demonstrated mass gain. Our results match well with the long term direct mass balance measurements on the Garabashi glacier on Elbrus which lost 12.58 m w.e. and 12.92±0.95 m w.e. between 1997 and 2017 estimated by glaciological and geodetic method, respectively. The rate of Elbrus glacier mass loss tripled in 1997-2017 compared with the 1957-1997 period.

The structural, geometric and volumetric changes of a polythermal Arctic glacier during a surge cycle: Comfortlessbreen, Svalbard

AbstractVarious parameters of the most recent surge of the polythermal glacier Comfortlessbreen in northwest Svalbard, have been assessed through a combination of remote sensing and ground observations. Analysis of a digital elevation model time‐series shows a marked change in the geometry of the glacier from quiescence (1990 and earlier) into the late surge phase (2009). The transfer of 0.74 km3 of ice caused up to 80 m of surface drawdown in the reservoir area, above the equilibrium line, whilst ice built up in a spatially concentrated manner in the receiving zone, below the equilibrium line. A ramp of ice, c. 100 m above quiescent level, developed in the lower reaches of the glacier late in the surge. Also in the lower reaches of the glacier, structures attributable to the passage of a kinematic wave are identified and the migration of a surge front on the glacier is thus inferred. In a conceptual model, we consider that a bend in the valley, in which the glacier resides, and convergence with tributary glaciers, to be significant factors in the style of surge evolution. Their flow‐restrictive interference results in slow initial mass‐transfer and the growth of a surge front within 3–4 km of the terminus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Changes in the southeast Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, between ~ 1890 and 2010

Abstract. Area and volume changes and the average geodetic mass balance of the non-surging outlet glaciers of the southeast Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, during different time periods between ~ 1890 and 2010, are derived from a multi-temporal glacier inventory. A series of digital elevation models (DEMs) (~ 1890, 1904, 1936, 1945, 1989, 2002, 2010) are compiled from glacial geomorphological features, historical photographs, maps, aerial images, DGPS measurements and a lidar survey. Given the mapped basal topography, we estimate volume changes since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) ~ 1890. The variable volume loss of the outlets to similar climate forcing is related to their different hypsometry, basal topography, and the presence of proglacial lakes. In the post-LIA period, the glacierized area decreased by 164 km2 (or from 1014 to 851 km2) and the glaciers had lost 10–30 % of their ~ 1890 area by 2010 (anywhere from 3 to 36 km2). The glacier surface lowered by 150–270 m near the terminus and the outlet glaciers collectively lost 60 ± 8 km3 of ice, which is equivalent to 0.15 ± 0.02 mm of sea-level rise. The volume loss of individual glaciers was in the range of 15–50%, corresponding to a geodetic mass balance between −0.70 and −0.32 m w.e. a−1. The annual rate of mass change during the post-LIA period was most negative in 2002–2010, on average −1.34 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1, which is among the most negative mass balance values recorded worldwide in the early 21st century.

Изменение площади и массы ледников в долине Ала-Арча в Киргизском хребте на северном Тянь-Шане с 1964 года

Glaciers are an important source of fresh water for Central Asia as they release water during the summer months when precipitation is low and water demand highest. Many studies address glacier area changes but only changes in glacier mass can be directly linked to climate and runoff. Despite the importance, investigations of glacier mass changes have been restricted to only a few glaciers in the Tien Shan until now. Geodetic mass balance measurements are suitable to complement and extend existing in-situ measurements. In this study, both area and mass changes of the ~40 km² glacier ice in the Ala Archa Valley, Kyrgyz Tien Shan, were investigated using 1964 and 1971 stereo Corona, 2012 stereo ASTER, the SRTM digital terrain model and other optical data such as Landsat ETM+ or Rapid Eye. In addition, ice thickness was modeled taking the basal shear stress and the glacier surface topography into account. The results indicate an area loss of 18.3±5.0% from 1964 until 2010 with continuous shrinkage in all investigated periods. The glacier’s mass balance was −0.45±0.27 m w.e. a⁻¹ for the period 1964–1999 and −0.42±0.66 m w.e. a⁻¹ for 1999–2012. Golubin Glacier showed a possible slight mass gain for 1964–1971 and a decelerated mass loss for the 1999–2012 period. This is in good agreement with existing in-situ measurements exiting from 1962 until 1994 and since 2010. The overall ice volume was estimated to be 1.56±0.47 km³ of ice in the year 2000. Hence, the entire ice would be lost by 2100 if the mass loss would continue at the same rate.

Glacier area and mass changes since 1964 in the Ala Archa Valley, Kyrgyz Ala-Too, northern Tien Shan

Glaciers are an important source of fresh water for Central Asia as they release water during the summer months when precipitation is low and water demand highest. Many studies address glacier area changes but only changes in glacier mass can be directly linked to climate and runoff. Despite the importance, investigations of glacier mass changes have been restricted to only a few glaciers in the Tien Shan until now. Geodetic mass balance measurements are suitable to complement and extend existing in-situ measurements. In this study, both area and mass changes of the ~40 km² glacier ice in the Ala Archa Valley, Kyrgyz Tien Shan, were investigated using 1964 and 1971 stereo Corona, 2012 stereo ASTER, the SRTM digital terrain model and other optical data such as Landsat ETM+ or Rapid Eye. In addition, ice thickness was modeled taking the basal shear stress and the glacier surface topography into account. The results indicate an area loss of 18.3±5.0% from 1964 until 2010 with continuous shrinkage in all investigated periods. The glacier’s mass balance was −0.45±0.27 m w.e. a−1 for the period 1964–1999 and −0.42±0.66 m w.e. a−1 for 1999–2012. Golubin Glacier showed a possible slight mass gain for 1964– 1971 and a decelerated mass loss for the 1999–2012 period. This is in good agreement with existing in-situ measurements exiting from 1962 until 1994 and since 2010. The overall ice volume was estimated to be 1.56±0.47 km³ of ice in the year 2000. Hence, the entire ice would be lost by 2100 if the mass loss would continue at the same rate

Putative eskers and new insights into glacio-fluvial depositional settings in southern Argyre Planitia, Mars

We present new insights into possible formation mechanisms and implications for previously identified landforms of putative glacio-fluvial origin along the southern rim of the Argyre basin on Mars. We compiled a detailed geomorphologic map of the study area and conducted morphometric and stratigraphic analyses of specific features, e.g., esker-like sinuous ridges on layered terrain. Based on their morphology and orientations, we subdivided the sinuous ridges on the southern Argyre basin floor into two populations, which could reflect changing conditions of glacial retreat. With the transition and oblique path methods we quantified the ice thickness of the glacier under which the first, lesser degraded, population of ridges probably formed. Our results imply an ice sheet thickness of ~2km and at least ~100,000–150,000km³ of ice on the southern floor of the Argyre basin during the time those ridges were deposited (>30× the volume of Vatnajökull, Iceland). The second population of ridges is more degraded and shows layers occasionally extending into the surrounding layered terrain. Comparisons with the morphology surrounding the Piedmont-style Malaspina Glacier in Alaska show similarities, suggesting population II formed during a glacial retreat involving back- and downwasting of stagnant ice lying beneath fresh outwash sediments, creating degraded and layered lag deposits around the emerging eskers. If outwash sediments were fed by the same drainage source as the eskers, sections of layers can extend from a given ridge into the surrounding deposits. The differences between the two ridge populations are probably a result of the subglacial drainage direction changing from northward to north-eastward around 3.6Ga ago. This was likely coupled with the deposition of less or no outwash sediments resulting in a decrease of lag deposits. A subsequent phase of stagnant glacial retreat left no terminal moraines and largely preserved the population I ridges, thus implying sufficient glacial thinning in order for the ice flow to stop. This, in turn, may have been caused either by sublimation in a cold but increasingly dry climate, or by melting and increased glacier surface runoff due to rising temperatures.

Search for relativistic magnetic monopoles with IceCube

We present the first results in the search for relativistic magnetic monopoles with the IceCube detector, a subsurface neutrino telescope located in the South Polar ice cap containing a volume of 1 km3. This analysis searches data taken on the partially completed detector during 2007 when roughly 0.2 km3 of ice was instrumented. The lack of candidate events leads to an upper limit on the flux of relativistic magnetic monopoles of Φ90%C.L.∼3×10−18 cm−2 sr−1 s−1 for β≥0.8. This is a factor of 4 improvement over the previous best experimental flux limits up to a Lorentz boost γ below 107. This result is then interpreted for a wide range of mass and kinetic energy values.4 MoreReceived 27 August 2012DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.87.022001© 2013 American Physical Society

Removing the ice cap of Öræfajökull central volcano, SE-Iceland: Mapping and interpretation of bedrock topography, ice volumes, subglacial troughs and implications for hazards assessments

The ice covered active Öræfajökull central volcano forms a mountain range extending south from the central Vatnajökull ice cap, SE-Iceland. The high elevation span (7–2110 m a.s.l.) and extreme precipitation of this coastal part of Vatnajökull results in large mass turnover and high dynamic activity. Here we present bedrock and surface digital elevation models (DEMs) of Öræfajökull ice cap and its many outlets. The bedrock DEM is derived from radio echo sounding profiles and point measurements carried out in 1991–2012, and the surface from airborne LiDAR surveys in 2010–2011. At the centre of Öræfajökull is a ~14 km² caldera containing 4.3 km³ of ice, reaching ice thickness of 540 m. Most of the caldera drains meltwater eastwards to Kvíá river while the rest drains mainly westwards to Virkisá river. The caldera floor of Öræfajökull is smooth and volcanic mounds and ridges appear almost absent. An exception is a small topographic mound, beneath ~400 m of ice, near the water divides between Kvíá and Virkisá. The bedrock topography also suggests a separate caldera collapse, ~6 km² and ~150 m deep, within the main caldera. The subglacial topography implies an older highly eroded caldera north of the Öræfajökull summit (Hvannadalshnúkur 2110 m a.s.l.), similar in size to the present main caldera. The outlets of Öræfajökull, currently in some places up to 550 m thick, have excavated troughs reaching as far as 220 m below current sea level. Based on estimates of the present sediment transport rate in the rivers draining Öræfajökull, and the volume of the troughs, it would take over ~4000 years to form these troughs. Hence, it is unlikely that they were all excavated during the Little Ice Age. Marginal lakes will continue to grow and new ones form in the troughs as the outlets retreat in the coming decades, assuming current climate conditions or climate warming. The distribution of ice volume and area with elevation is however quite different from one outlet to another, suggesting variable glacier response to changing climatic conditions. A persistent temperature rise of 0.5–1.0°C may cause the lowest outlets to disappear completely, while the outlets with accumulation areas high up at the Öræfajökull caldera will survive even the warmest predicted climate scenarios.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

AbstractVirtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ~100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.

Fluctuating Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Changes Estimated by an In Situ Learned and Empirically Forced Neural Network Model

Abstract Sea ice thickness (SIT) is a key parameter of scientific interest because understanding the natural spatiotemporal variability of ice thickness is critical for improving global climate models. In this paper, changes in Arctic SIT during 1982–2003 are examined using a neural network (NN) algorithm trained with in situ submarine ice draft and surface drilling data. For each month of the study period, the NN individually estimated SIT of each ice-covered pixel (25-km resolution) based on seven geophysical parameters (four shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, ice drift velocity, and ice divergence/convergence) that were cumulatively summed at each monthly position along the pixel’s previous 3-yr drift track (or less if the ice was <3 yr old). Average January SIT increased during 1982–88 in most regions of the Arctic (+7.6 ± 0.9 cm yr−1), decreased through 1996 Arctic-wide (−6.1 ± 1.2 cm yr−1), then modestly increased through 2003 mostly in the central Arctic (+2.1 ± 0.6 cm yr−1). Net ice volume change in the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2003 was negligible, indicating that cumulative ice growth had largely replaced the estimated 45 000 km3 of ice lost by cumulative export. Above 65°N, total annual ice volume and interannual volume changes were correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at decadal and annual time scales, respectively. Late-summer ice thickness and total volume varied proportionally until the mid-1990s, but volume did not increase commensurate with the thickening during 1996–2002. The authors speculate that decoupling of the ice thickness–volume relationship resulted from two opposing mechanisms with different latitudinal expressions: a recent quasi-decadal shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the AO’s neutral state facilitated ice thickening at high latitudes while anomalously warm thermal forcing thinned and melted the ice cap at its periphery.

Geophysical survey of the intra-caldera icefield of Mt Veniaminof, Alaska

AbstractMt Veniaminof is a large active stratovolcano located on the Alaska Peninsula (56.2° N, 159° W). We present results of the first geophysical survey of the icefield that fills much of the 10 km×8 km caldera that was most recently modified during the last major eruption roughly 3700 BP. The subglacial topography and ice volume are derived from an 8MHz radio-echo sounding survey conducted in July 2005. Prominent internal reflectors are assumed to be isochronal ash/acid deposits related to local eruptions. Accumulation rates and basal melt rates are calculated using a Nye one-dimensional steady-state accumulation model applied at a location that approximates an ice divide and calibrated by matching internal reflectors with published records of recent local volcanic eruptions. The model yields order of magnitude estimates of the accumulation rate of 4ma–1 water equivalent and 2 ma–1 of basal melt. The subsequent geothermal flux of ∽19Wm–2 is similar to active hydrothermal vents in volcanic lakes. We suggest that these values represent an upper limit for the geothermal flux within the ice-covered regions of the main caldera. We also analyze likely subglacial meltwater flow paths to examine the implications of recent eruption activity at an active intra-caldera cinder cone. Two lava-producing eruptions from the cinder cone in 1983–84 and 1993–94 melted roughly 0.17km3 of ice. The lack of significant deformation of the internal stratigraphy to the south and east of the melt hole suggests that any subglacial drainage in those directions was entirely within subglacial deposits. We suggest that the more likely drainage route was northwest into a large outlet glacier.

Glacier change (1958–1998) in the North Cascades National Park Complex, Washington, USA

AbstractThe spatial characteristics for all glaciers in the North Cascades National Park Complex, USA, were estimated in 1958 and again in 1998. The total glacier area in 1958 was 117.3 ± 1.1 km2; by 1998 the glacier area had decreased to 109.1 ± 1.1 km2, a reduction of 8.2 ± 0.1 km2 (7%). Estimated volume loss during the 40 year period was 0.8 ± 0.1 km3 of ice. This volume loss contributes up to 6% of the August–September stream-flow and equals 16% of the August–September precipitation. No significant correlations were found between magnitude of glacier shrinkage and topographic characteristics of elevation, aspect or slope. However, the smaller glaciers lost proportionally more area than the larger glaciers and had a greater variability in fractional change than larger glaciers. Most of the well-studied alpine glaciers are much larger than the population median, so global estimates of glacier shrinkage, based on these well-studied glaciers, probably underestimate the true magnitude of regional glacier change.

The initial laparoscopic appearance can predict response to combination therapy in hepatitis C

Antarctica is the fifth-largest continent, covering 5.4 million square miles (14 million square km). The average winter temperature in Antarctica is −81°F (−63°C) and has reached −128.6°F (−89.2°C). About 98% of the Antarctic continent is covered by glacial ice that averages about 1.2 miles (1.9 km) in thickness. The total volume of ice in Antarctica is about 6.4 million cubic miles (26.5 million cubic km), comprising about 90% of the world's ice and about 70% of the world's fresh water. The average height of the ice sheet is approximately 10,000 ft above sea level. At its thickest point, the ice is 15,700 ft (4776 m) thick. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is by far the biggest ice sheet, making up 92% of the total glacial ice, while the West Antarctic Ice Sheet makes up only about 8%.The Steig et al. analysis that all of Antarctica is warming was refuted by O'Donnell et al., who showed that their methodology was badly flawed. Using the same data as Steig et al., but with better technology, they produced a map showing cooling dominating most of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet with warming primarily constrained to the Antarctica Peninsula. Satellite and surface temperature measurements demonstrate that the Steig et al. contention that all of Antarctica is warming is clearly false. Antarctic satellite temperatures show no warming for 37 years. The Southern Ocean around Antarctica has cooled markedly since 2006. Sea ice has increased substantially, especially since 2012. Surface temperatures at 13 stations on or near the Antarctic Peninsula have been cooling sharply since 2006. Ocean temperatures have been plummeting since about 2007, sea ice has reached all-time highs, and temperatures have been cooling since 2000. The Larsen Ice Shelf Station has been cooling at an astonishing rate of 1.8°C per decade (18°C per century) since 1995.The thickness of most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is more than 6000 ft (2000 m) and large areas are more than 10,000 ft (3000 m) thick. The importance of ice thickness is that virtually all of the ice sheet is considerably thicker than the depth below sea level to bedrock, so the ice is grounded and will not float. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts away, where the ice is 10,000 ft thick, the land beneath will rebound isostatically several 1000 ft, bringing most of the subglacial bed above sea level.The Pine Island and Thwaites outlet glaciers are only about 30 miles across, so draining 2.2 million km3 of ice through their narrow channels or sending sea water 1000 miles under the ice sheet is not plausible. Studies of subglacial geothermal heat flow show that the area under the Thwaites glacier is unusually high and is the most likely cause of subglacial melting, rather than ocean water. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is not collapsing, the retreat of these small glaciers is not caused by global warming, and sea level is not going to rise 10 ft.

Old Ice Streams

GEOLOGY The size and behavior of past Antarctic ice sheets are essential elements in the quest to understand how and why climate changed in the past and what the consequences may be in the future. Modern observations have shown that Antarctic ice flow is slow and diffuse over most of the interior of the ice sheet but focuses into relatively rapid streams near the edges of the sheet. Canals et al. have found a set of parallel to subparallel ridges and grooves up to 100 kilometers (km) in length at a water depth of 1000 m in the Western Bransfield Basin off Antarctica. They identify this formation, called a “bundle” structure, as material deposited by a giant ice stream during the last glacial maximum. This finding illustrates the importance of rapid ice flow during past glacial maxima that are related to present ice sheet movements. The minimum ice thickness necessary to have formed this bundle is 1000 m. This single stream, which was probably about 340-km long, would have transported approximately 8000 km3 of ice to the ocean—enough to raise sea level slightly more than 2 cm.— HJS Geology 28 , 31 (2000)

Glaciers receive a surge of attention in the Karakoram Himalaya

Between 1994 and 1996 catastrophic movement of the 15.5‐km‐long Chiring Glacier transferred 1‐1.5 km3 of ice from its upper two thirds to its lower third, and into the main Panmah Glacier of which it is a tributary. By October 1996, a lobe of Chiring ice some 3.2 km2 in area had entered and compressed the main glacier, which was severely disturbed for 3 km above and 5 km below the junction of the glaciers (Figure 1). Ice streams and medial moraines were pushed into a series of looped or “tear‐drop” forms, well‐known in the surging glaciers. Despite an observational record back to 1856, it was not previously realized that changes in the glacier involve surging.

Ice–volcano interaction of the 1996 Gjálp subglacial eruption, Vatnajökull, Iceland

Volcanic eruptions under glaciers can cause dangerous floods and lahars1,2,3 and create hyaloclastite (fragmented glassy rock) mountains4,5,6,7,8. But processes such as the rate of heat transfer between ice and magma, edifice formation, and the response of the surrounding glacier are poorly understood, because of the lack of data. Here we present observations from the fissure eruption at Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland, in October 1996. In the 13 days of the eruption 3 km3 of ice were melted and the erupted magma fragmented into glass forming a hyaloclastite ridge 6–7 km long and 200–300 m high under 500–750 m of ice. Meltwater of temperatures of 15–20 °C flowed along a narrow channel at the glacier bed into the Grimsvotn subglacial lake for five weeks, before draining in a sudden flood, or jokulhlaup. Subsidence and crevassing of the ice cap occurred over the eruptive fissure and the meltwater path, whereas elsewhere the glacier surface remained intact, suggesting that subglacial eruptions do not trigger widespread basal sliding in warm-based glaciers.

Non-explosive, constructional evolution of the ice-filled caldera at Volcán Sollipulli, Chile

A radar and gravity survey of the ice-filled caldera at Volcan Sollipulli, Chile, indicates that the intra-caldera ice has a thickness of up to 650 m in its central part and that the caldera harbours a minimum of 6 km3 of ice. Reconnaissance geological observations show that the volcano has erupted compositions ranging from olivine basalt to dacite and have identified five distinct volcanic units in the caldera walls. Pre- or syn-caldera collapse deposits (the Sharkfin pyroclastic unit) comprise a sequence which evolved from subglacial to subaerial facies. Post-caldera collapse products, which crop out along 17 of the 20 km length of the caldera wall, were erupted almost exclusively along the caldera margins in the presence of a large body of intra-caldera ice. The Alpehue crater, formed by an explosive eruption between 2960 and 2780 a. BP, in the southwest part of the caldera is shown to post date formation of the caldera. Sollipulli lacks voluminous silicic pyroclastic rocks associated with caldera formation and the collapse structure does not appear to be a consequence of a large-magnitude explosive eruption. Instead, lateral magma movement at depth resulting in emptying of the magma chamber may have generated the caldera. The radar and gravity data show that the central part of the caldera floor is flat but, within a few hundred metres of the caldera walls, the floor has a stepped topography with relatively low-density rock bodies beneath the ice in this region. This, coupled with the fact that most of the post-caldera eruptions have taken place along the caldera walls, implies that the caldera has been substantially modified by subglacial marginal eruptions. Sollipulli caldera has evolved from a collapse to a constructional feature with intra-caldera ice playing a major role. The post-caldera eruptions have resulted in an increase in height of the walls and concomitant deepening of the caldera with time.

The response of large ice sheets to climatic change

The prediction of short-term (100 year) changes in the mass balance of ice sheets and longer-term (1000 years) variations in their ice volumes is important for a range of climatic and environmental models. The Antarctic ice sheet contains between 24 M km3and 29 M km3of ice, equivalent to a eustatic sea level change of between 60m and 72m. The annual surface accumulation is estimated to be of the order of 2200 Gtonnes, equivalent to a sea level change of 6 mm a-1. Analysis of the present-day accumulation regime of Antarctica indicates that about 25% (ca.500 Gt a-1) of snowfall occurs in the Antarctic Peninsula region with an area of only 6.8% of the continent. To date most models have focused upon solving predictive algorithms for the climate-sensitivity of the ice sheet, and assume: (i) surface mass balance is equivalent to accumulation (i.e. no melting, evaporation or deflation); (ii) percentage change in accumulation is proportional to change in saturation mixing ratio above the surface inversion layer; and (iii) there is a linear relation between mean annual surface air tem perature and saturation mixing ratio. For the A ntarctic Peninsula with mountainous terrain containing ice caps, outlet glaciers, valley glaciers and ice shelves, where there can be significant ablation at low levels and distinct climatic regimes, models of the climate response must be more complex. In addition, owing to the high accumulation and flow rates, even short- to medium -term predictions must take account of ice dynamics. Relationships are derived for the mass balance sensitivity and, using a model developed by Hindmarsh, the transient effects of ice dynamics are estimated. It is suggested that for a 2°C rise in mean annual surface tem perature over 40 years, ablation in the A ntarctic Peninsula region would contribute at least 1.0 mm to sea level rise, offsetting the fall of 0.5 mm contributed by increased accum ulation.