Vehicle trajectory prediction is a critical technology in autonomous driving systems, as the quality of prediction directly affects downstream path planning and vehicle control. Although recent studies have shown that models combining kinematic rules with data-driven methods exhibit better interpretability in trajectory prediction, these models often adopt fixed constraint strengths, limiting their generalization ability in diverse traffic scenarios. This fixed constraint strength design restricts the model’s adaptability to different traffic environments.To address this issue, we propose PB-Trajectron, a dynamic integration mechanism that enhances the model’s prediction performance and generalization capability. PB-Trajectron is a dynamic integration mechanism that combines vehicle kinematic rules with deep learning prediction models for generalized vehicle trajectory prediction. The model integrates physics-based motion models and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to provide reasonable physical explanations for predicting vehicle trajectories at different speeds. First, we establish two vehicle kinematic constraints applicable to different prediction scenarios, enabling the agent to switch between these constraints based on the causal relationships between vehicle motion states to avoid generating non-physical trajectory results. Second, we propose a kinematic constraint decision framework based on velocity thresholds, which demonstrates adaptive adjustment, allowing the agent to switch tasks according to real-time state conditions and adaptively adjust the contribution of different physical constraints based on actual vehicle speeds. Finally, we investigate the advantages of PB-Trajectron in Out-of-Domain(OOD) generalization.Cross-scenario experiments on the nuScenes dataset show that, compared to previous methods, PB-Trajectron reduces the final displacement error by 7.69% when the prediction step length is 4. Furthermore, out-of-domain generalization tests on the INTERACTION dataset demonstrate that PB-Trajectron achieves a 12.23% reduction in average prediction error on datasets from different countries and scenarios compared to previous methods. The proposed mechanism can better adapt to complex and diverse traffic scenarios, laying the foundation for explainable and robust autonomous driving systems.
Read full abstract