Keynesian Model Research Articles

Leaning against the wind in the New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations

Leaning against the wind in the New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations

Household Durable Goods Spending in Urban Areas: A New Keynesian Micro Perspective

In the New Keynesian model, durable goods are typically assumed to be more responsive to monetary policy than non-durable goods. While this assumption is generally based on macroeconomic policy studies, this research aims to identify whether monetary authorities need to consider household microeconomic aspects such as dependents and long-term saving behavior when formulating policies to stimulate durable goods spending. The study employs two inverse semilogarithmic equations with micro data on urban households. Research findings confirm the existing assumption of the New Keynesian model. Durable goods spending remains sensitive to macroeconomic policies, particularly interest rate adjustments by monetary authorities. Furthermore, the research provides evidence supporting the life-cycle hypothesis for durable goods consumption among urban households. Therefore, this study underscores the pivotal role of durable goods expenditures in ensuring sustainable economic stability.

Fiscal Policy, International Spillovers, and Endogenous Productivity

AbstractThe paper presents empirical evidence on the international effects of U.S. fiscal policy from structural vector autoregressions identified through external instruments in a panel setting for the G7 countries. An exogenous increase in U.S. government spending is estimated to produce sizable positive responses of output and consumption in the rest of the G7 countries, both about half as large as their domestic U.S. counterparts, while strongly depreciating the U.S. terms of trade and lowering the U.S. trade balance and short‐run real interest rates. Moreover, fiscal shocks are estimated to have a strongly positive impact on hourly labor productivity in the private sector. We solve a two‐country New Keynesian model in closed form and show that a low cost elasticity of varying technology utilization can simultaneously explain the positive productivity, consumption, and international spillover effects as well as the real depreciation resulting from expansionary U.S. government spending shocks.

Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of their models. As a consequence, the estimates could be essentially meaningless if convergence to the ‘true’ parameters is not guaranteed in the pertinent problem. We provide some evidence here that such a lack of identification is responsible for the inconclusive results reported in recent literature on parameter estimates for a certain class of nonlinear behavioral New Keynesian models. We also show that identifiability depends on the subtle details of the model structure. Hence, a careful investigation of identifiability should precede any attempt at estimation of such models.

Standard Errors for Calibrated Parameters

Abstract Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and confidence intervals for the structural parameters that are valid even under the worst-case correlation structure. In the over-identified case, we show that the moment weighting scheme that minimizes the worst-case estimator variance amounts to a moment selection problem with a simple solution. Finally, we develop tests of over-identifying or parameter restrictions. We apply our methods empirically to a model of menu cost pricing for multi-product firms and to a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model.

How do sectoral elasticities affect the transmission of monetary shocks?

PurposeThe presence of heterogeneity in price stickiness has been previously shown to be the main determinant of the real effects of nominal shocks. The paper presents theoretical results that highlight the significance of labor mobility and intratemporal elasticity of substitution across sectors.Design/methodology/approachThis paper explores output dynamics in a closed economy, relying on a New Keynesian model that accounts for heterogeneity in price stickiness across sectors.FindingsThe key finding from the analytical results is that changes in labor mobility and intratemporal elasticity of substitution across sectors have an equivalent impact on sectoral output when accounting for differences in price stickiness. The model is then calibrated for the US economy using data from the manufacturing and services sectors, providing validation for the analytical results.Originality/valueConventional models often assume either immediate labor reallocation across sectors following shocks or no labor mobility at all. Additionally, these models assume either strong complementarity in consumption or some degree of substitutability. This paper demonstrates the crucial role that labor reallocation and the elasticity of substitution across goods across sectors play in generating well-known economic outcomes.

Consumption tax cuts vs stimulus payments

Recent work shows that in macroeconomic models with non-Ricardian consumer behavior, uniform transfers are equivalent to interest rate cuts. That is, policymakers can use stimulus payments to substitute for conventional monetary policy when, say, the zero lower bound on short-term rates binds. We argue that in the same class of models, temporarily reducing consumption taxes delivers more stimulus than transfers — at the same cost to the taxpayer. Consumption tax cuts activate both income and substitution channels and prompt a strong response from all consumers across the wealth distribution. Simulating these policies in a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, we find output expands twice as much.

Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk.

Monetary Policy and Government Debt

AbstractWe study how the level of government debt affects the effectiveness of monetary policy, that is, the elasticity of economic aggregates to interest rate changes. We build a New Keynesian model where fiscal policy is non‐Ricardian and government debt is risk‐free. Wealth effects generated by government bonds weaken the transmission of monetary policy to output. Using data on private ownership of U.S. public debt, we find that when the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is one standard deviation above its mean, the response of industrial production and unemployment to a monetary shock decreases by 0.75pp and 0.1pp, respectively, out to a 3‐year horizon.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates

We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set of monetary and fiscal policy parameters can achieve debt and inflation stability given persistent fiscal deficits both away from and at the zero interest rate lower bound. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62, H63)

Nominal GDP growth targeting vs. Taylor rules in a model with financial frictions

Nominal GDP growth targeting has gained favor over the last few decades in monetary policy literature (e.g., Ireland 2020; Garín et al. 2016; Beckworth and Hendrickson 2020). Calibrated, small-scale New Keynesian DSGE models have supported the proposition that nominal GDP growth (NGDP growth) rate targeting will improve welfare as compared with alternative strategies such as inflation targeting and Taylor rules with standard parameter settings. This paper examines that proposition in the context of a medium-scale New Keynesian model having a financial sector with frictions. In that model, NGDP growth rate targeting does poorly as compared with the Optimal Taylor rule and a wide range of Taylor rule settings leading up to the Optimal (representative agent utility maximizing) Taylor rule. The presence of the financial sector reveals that not only is NGDP growth rate targeting the least successful among the alternative targets and rules in creating welfare in this model; NGDP growth rate targeting also creates dramatically higher volatility of the policy rate and most financial variables.

Government size and the effectiveness of fiscal policy: the bigger the better?

Abstract This study investigates the effect of government size, as measured by the tax revenue to gross domestic product (tax-GDP) ratio, on output responses to increases in government purchases. First, we show that in a standard static neoclassical model, the stimulus effect of fiscal expansion on output increases with the tax-GDP ratio. This finding is quantitatively confirmed using a dynamic neoclassical model with standard functional forms and parameter values. To empirically test the theoretical findings, we analyze the responses of macroeconomic variables to an unanticipated increase in government purchases for 12 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1985–2019 using a state-dependent local projection method. The estimation results reveal that while output responses to an unanticipated fiscal expansion are significantly positive when the tax-GDP ratio is high, they are statistically indistinguishable from zero when the ratio is low. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal expansion can stimulate output more effectively at high tax rates, unlike the well-known predictions of the traditional Keynesian model.

Nonseparability of credit card services within Divisia monetary aggregates

Abstract We use the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to investigate the usefulness and relevancy of monetary services, augmented to include credit card transaction services. We use the new credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in the models to further the existing research on their usefulness and relevancy. In this research, we compare three different monetary aggregates within the New Keynesian framework: (1) the aggregation-theoretic “true” monetary aggregate, (2) the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate, and (3) the simple sum monetary aggregate. We acquire the following primary results. (1) The credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate tracks the theoretical (true) monetary aggregate, while simple sum does not. Although this result would be expected from the theory in classical economic models, the result is not an immediate implication of the theory in New Keynesian models and therefore needs empirical confirmation. (2) Under the recursive VAR framework, the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregate serves as a preferable monetary policy indicator compared to the traditional federal funds rate. (3) On theoretical grounds, we find that the separability condition for existence of a monetary aggregator function could fail, if credit card deferred payment services were excluded from the monetary services block, unless all markets are perfect.

The incidence of tax rates on workers’ debt stability and demand regimes

This paper explores different tax regimes in a Post Keynesian model where workers get into debt to emulate the consumption of upper-income classes. The government taxes income to fund a social wage that would reduce workers’ need to get into debt. Three tax regimes are analyzed: taxing profits, managers’ wages, or both. In a numerical exercise, we explore the effects of changing the within-wage and functional inequalities. The government’s income tax choices and the wage bill’s distribution matter for the economy’s sustainability and the relationship between distribution and growth. The demand regime of the economy is not independent of policy. Taxing only profits and reducing wage inequality are the best possible outcomes in the model if we were to wind down the unsustainability feature of neoliberalism without sacrificing real performance.

Unwinding quantitative easing: State dependency and household heterogeneity

This paper studies the asymmetry in the macroeconomic effects of central bank asset market operations induced by state dependency and the associated role of household heterogeneity. We build a New Keynesian model with borrowers and savers in which quantitative easing and tightening operate through portfolio rebalancing between short-term and long-term government bonds. We highlight the significance of an occasionally binding zero lower bound in explaining a weaker aggregate impact of asset sales relative to asset purchases. In this context, when close to the lower bound, raising the nominal interest rate prior to unwinding quantitative easing mitigates the economic costs of monetary policy normalization. Furthermore, our results imply that household heterogeneity in combination with state dependency amplifies the revealed asymmetry, while household heterogeneity alone does not enhance the aggregate effects of asset market operations.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Japan: an analysis using interest rate futures surprises

AbstractWe estimate the effects of monetary policy on the aggregate economy in Japan during the last three decades when the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates was occasionally binding. We use monetary policy surprises from the interest rate futures market as the external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks in the vector autoregressive model. We find that monetary policy has been effective in Japan during the last three decades, and the effect was more persistent in the ELB regime than in the non-ELB regime. In a simulation exercise, we further show that a New Keynesian model with forward guidance can replicate our empirical finding.

Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting

This study empirically documents that inflation is significantly more persistent when it is below the Central Bank’s target than otherwise, in five inflation targeting countries (Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, United States and the Euro-Area). We use a threshold autoregressive model to test for this asymmetry in inflation persistence; above and below some estimated threshold. We find that the threshold estimates are reasonable in light of a central bank’s announced inflation target. Theoretically, we postulate that this phenomenon occurs because while forming their expectations, agents pay attention to recent observations asymmetrically along the business cycle. It is shown that a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning and an adaptive gain can explain the asymmetry in inflation persistence. Due to relatively larger forecasting errors, agents tend to put more weight on recent events in periods of high inflation, forcing inflation persistence to deteriorate. Our empirical evidence supports the theoretical findings that inflationary periods are associated with larger forecasting errors.

Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps

We characterize optimal unconventional monetary and fiscal-financial policies against supply- and demand-driven liquidity traps within a tractable New Keynesian model featuring a cash-in-advance constraint and a monetary policy cost channel. Deposit subsidies circumvent the inflation-output trade-off arising from stagflationary shocks and supply-driven liquidity traps by enabling negative nominal interest rates. Additionally, deposit taxes facilitate modest interest rate hikes to escape demand-driven deflationary traps. Notably, discretionary and commitment policies with deposit taxes / subsidies deliver virtually equivalent welfare gains, rendering time-inconsistent forward guidance schedules unnecessary. We also derive robust and implementable optimal policy rules when the sources of shocks are unknown.

Does Nominal Wage Stickiness Affect Fiscal Multiplier in a Two-Agent New Keynesian Model?

Abstract This study examines the effect of nominal wage stickiness on the fiscal multiplier in a two-agent new Keynesian model. We demonstrate that in the case of sticky nominal wages, an increased share of liquidity-constrained (LC) consumers decreases the money-financed (MF) fiscal multiplier. Our model shows that the fiscal multiplier under an MF regime outperforms that under a debt-financed (DF) regime. Under empirically plausible calibration, the benchmark model indicates that the MF government-spending multiplier is 1.5–3.0, whereas the DF multiplier is 0.8–1.5. We also find that an increased share of LC consumers magnifies the tax-cut multiplier in the cases of MF and DF regimes despite nominal wage stickiness.

Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search

This study examines the impact of labour force participation (LFP) on search behaviour and unemployment in response to uncertainty shocks. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression model, this study shows that an increase in uncertainty raises unemployment, lowers inflation and decreases LFP and search intensity. Then, a New Keynesian model that incorporates endogenous LFP and variable search intensity is constructed. Results show that both search intensity and participation are procyclical, which suggests a discouragement effect. However, with habit formation, the wealth effect outweighs the discouragement effect and induces an increase in LFP, resulting in a more significant decline in aggregate search intensity due to the expanded searcher pool. In the exogenous LFP model, search intensity is countercyclical, which dampens the unemployment rate. In the endogenous LFP model, the increased entry of non-participants cancels out the countercyclical search intensity of unemployed workers due to the large number of searchers.