Key Trading Partners Research Articles

Trade potential in the agricultural cooperation between Russia and ASEAN countries in conditions of world economic system fragmentation

In the article the level of food security of the ASEAN countries and Russia was determined using the Global Food Security Index, on the basis of which an analysis was made of the demand for each of the economies of the Association and the possibilities of trade cooperation with Russia in certain categories of agro-industrial products. Additionally, the article shows the key trading partners of the ASEAN countries in both export and import of agricultural products, and also identifies the position of the Russian economy among the category of so-called “other trading partners”. Based on statistical data, taking into account the current volumes of trade potential of the Russian economy, three categories of ASEAN countries were identified, for each of which a categorical analysis of the demand for agricultural products was carried out and the potential for interaction with Russia was identified.

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND IMPORT OPERATIONS DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE AND THE EU

Objective. The objective of the article is to analyze the current trends in export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU and to determine their features during the large-scale invasion. Methods. During the research, the following methods are applied: the dialectical method of learning processes and phenomena (for a qualitative study of the dynamics of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); graphical method (for graphical presentation of current dynamics and forecast values of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU); index (to estimate the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU in the total volume of imports and exports of Ukraine, respectively); one-factor and three-factor autoregressive forecasting method (for forecasting the volume and share of export-import transactions between Ukraine and the EU). Results. Before the large-scale invasion, the EU was one of Ukraine's key foreign trade partners. As of 2021, the EU accounted for 50% of Ukrainian exports. In the case of imports, the share of the EU was 63% of all imports to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the share of exports from Ukraine to the EU has increased to 70%, underscoring the importance of the EU as a major trading partner that not only contributes to economic stability, but also provides important logistics routes for the export of Ukrainian goods to global markets. Forecasting the share of imports and exports between Ukraine and the EU shows that, despite the decrease in exports and imports due to the large-scale invasion, the share of exports to the EU in total exports of Ukraine will increase, while the share of imports from the EU will remain constant. This testifies to the stability and importance of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU in the difficult conditions of modern global challenges. The executed forecast is based on the assumption that the large-scale invasion will continue. If the situation changes and the period of post-war recovery comes, it will be necessary to build a new forecast that will reflect new prospects for economic growth and integration of Ukraine into the world economy.

Рrospects for expanding the export of agricultural food products of the Republic of Belarus to the markets of Asian countries

In the context of economic challenges and sanctions restrictions, multi-vector foreign trade and development of new segments of the world market remain a priority task of the state foreign economic policy of the Republic of Belarus. Asian countries, characterized by a large population, growing demand for these products against the background of an insufficient level of self-sufficiency, diverse taste preferences of consumers, as well as an increase in their purchasing power, are considered as one of the directions for the geographic expansion of exports of agri-food products. Under conditions of the unstable general economic and agrarian situation on the continent, Vietnam, Iran, China, and Singapore are our country’s key trading partners among Asian countries. This requires a comprehensive study to determine the further interaction of these countries with the Republic of Belarus. Scientific results are presented, including the justification of customs-and-tariff and non-tariff conditions for access to the markets of Vietnam, Iran, China, and Singapore, as well as a developed set of effective ways for promoting Belarusian agri-food products on the territory of these states. In addition, a forecast of export supplies of domestic products was carried out, taking into account the specifics of trade policy and trade and economic cooperation between the Republic of Belarus as a member state of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Asian countries under study. Practical implementation of the results obtained will allow Belarusian exporters to create competitive advantages based on the application of preferential terms of trade, increasing the efficiency of financial and non-financial instruments, expanding organizations’ access to support mechanisms, development of agricultural commodity distribution network, introduction of information, communication and digital tools for sales and marketing policies.

Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand's trade

We analyze how different types of oil price shocks affect trade and whether these effects are asymmetric. Our focus is on New Zealand, which has historically been a net oil importer but recently transitioned to an import-only model to meet its needs for finished petroleum products. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we identify oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks using a recursive structural vector autoregression model. Then, we study whether the effects of these shocks on New Zealand's exports to and imports from its key trading partners—Australia, China, and the United States—are asymmetric using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models. The results show differences in the effects of different types of oil price shocks on exports and imports in the short and long run; however, there is limited evidence of asymmetries in these effects, especially in the case of exports. Exports to Australia and China, the most critical markets for New Zealand's exporters, are largely insensitive to oil price shocks.

Korea’s Trade Policy Beyond Free Trade Agreements

Korea’s trade policy has proven to be effective in establishing a mutually beneficial relationship between international trade and economic growth. During the past several decades, Korea has evolved its trade approach from a bilateral (export-oriented) focus to a multilateral strategy that adheres to the rules of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and WTO. Since the turn of the century, Korea has prioritized expanding its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) network, which has become a hallmark of its trade policy. This approach has helped the country to build stronger relationships with key trading partners and increase access to new markets. In response to the evolving global environment, Korea has implemented various measures to address new challenges while maintaining openness and fairness in global trade. Given its high trade-to-GDP ratio, it is crucial for Korea to maintain a stable and resilient economic environment. Currently, Korea’s trade policy centers on strengthening supply chains and integrating itself into the reshaping global value chains (GVC). The country is also contributing to global rule-making, with a particular focus on digital transformation and the net-zero transition. Moreover, Korea is committed to deepening and upgrading existing FTAs while expanding and complementing them, recognizing their significance as platforms for cooperation and communication with other countries. Korea’s trade policy, FTA, WTO, GVC, Supply Chain

Management of state property of the Agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Belarus

The purpose of the work was to analyze the management of state property of the Agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Belarus. In the Republic of Belarus, a decentralized (sectoral) system of ownership supervision has been formed, when shares are managed by ministries, concerns, and committees that were in charge of state-owned enterprises before their transformation into joint-stock companies. In addition to the sectoral system, there are centralized and dual systems, which are actively used by our key foreign trade partners such as the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. Currently, in the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus there is a high share of state-owned enterprises and organizations with a state share in the authorized capital. An analysis of the state share of ownership in the authorized capital of OJSC shows that in agricultural organizations in recent years it has consistently been in the range of 70–80 %, and in industrial and service organizations – 40–50 %. At the same time, there is a need to ensure an increase in the operating effi ciency of many OJSC, including by improving management tools for enterprises and organizations, including owner supervision. The article substantiates promising directions for improving owner’s supervision, including: organizational –the transition from a sectoral to a centralized model of organizing owner’s supervision in the Agro-industrial complex; economic – development of the corporate governance system in business companies; administrative and economic – development of a methodology for assessing the eff ectiveness of state property management in the Agro-industrial complex. The main methodological approaches to assessing the economic effi ciency of state property management in the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic are highlighted: 1) based on quantitative or qualitative indicators; 2) focused on the object or subject of management; taking into account only economic indicators or based on indicators of social effi ciency and public utility. The use of the results of the proposed research is aimed at improving owner supervision and will improve the efficiency of functioning of business entities of the Agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus.

On the issue of state property management in the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus

In the Republic of Belarus, a decentralized system of ownership supervision has been formed, when shares are managed by ministries, concerns, and committees that were in charge of state-owned en-terprises before their transformation into joint-stock companies. In addition to the sectoral system, there are centralized and dual systems, which are actively used by our key foreign trade partners — the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. Currently, in the agro-industrial com-plex of the Republic of Belarus there is a high share of state-owned enterprises and organizations with a state share in the authorized capital. An analysis of the state share of ownership in the author-ized capital of OJSC shows that in agricultural organizations in recent years it has consistently been in the range of 70–80 %, and in industrial and service organizations — 40–50 %. At the same time, the operating effi ciency of many JSCs is not at a high enough level, which predetermines the need and importance of improving management tools for enterprises and organizations, including owner su-pervision. The article substantiates promising directions for improving owner’s supervision, including: organizational — the transition from an industry-based to a centralized model of organizing owner’s supervision in the agro-industrial complex; economic — development of the corporate governance system in business companies; administrative and economic — development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of state property management in the agro-industrial complex. The use of the results of the proposed study is aimed at improving owner supervision and will improve the efficiency of functioning of business entities of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus.

Interrelationship dynamics between stock markets of nation under debt crisis and its major trading partners: evidence from Sri Lankan crisis

A series of crises triggered over a decade may bring global recession, which may impact millions of investors, including countries teetering on the brink due to forex reserve shortages; this study addresses the significant financial event of a small nation declaring bankruptcy. Such events can have adverse consequences on the global economy, particularly affecting the stock market indices of the country’s trading partners. Our research investigates the impact of small nation bankruptcies on the stock market indices of connected importing and exporting partners. Focusing on the recent political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka, we analyze interactions between the Sri Lankan stock exchange and its key trading partners. Employing pairwise cointegration and the vector auto-regressive model-based Granger causal approach, our findings reveal cointegration among the stock markets in Germany, Italy, and Sri Lanka. Notably, the pre-crisis causal links between the Colombo Stock Exchange and other stock markets have dissolved. These insights hold valuable implications for understanding and preparing for similar circumstances in other South Asian economies grappling with forex shortages and rising inflation.Graphical abstract

The Strategic Repositioning of the European Union in the New Global Geopolitical Context

The transformations in the world economy, the globalization of information, the globalization of security issues have brought non-state powers to the position of main actors of the contemporary geopolitical phenomenon, in which transnational, international or supranational organizations play a special role. The unprecedented period of peace and stability that Europe went through at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century is due to the existence of the European Union. The European Union is a relevant actor in the international arena; the emergence of the European Union radically changed the European and global geopolitical balance. Having an extensive network of economic relations worldwide, carrying out crisis management missions and humanitarian actions, the European Union cannot be omitted from any geopolitical analysis. In a very dynamic and unpredictable global geopolitical and geoeconomic context, the European Union launched on June 20, 2023 the European Strategy for Economic Security, a strategy that emphasizes bilateral and plurilateral cooperation - in different formats and degrees of institutionalization, from the G-7 to high-level economic talks, investment partnerships and commodity clubs. The European Union wants to reduce, for the next decades, the economic risks related to dependence on China. The strategy outlines how the European Union - a key trading partner for both China and the United States - is trying to manage its economic dependence on Beijing and avoid the kind of economic rupture with Russia that followed the invasion of Ukraine. The paper aims to analyze what China's "risk reduction" means for Europe and, at the same time, to understand how the European Union's approach to economic security will shape future relations in terms of geopolitics and geoeconomics at the international and regional level.

Структурно-параметрический анализ и меры по развитию внешней торговли Российской Федерации в условиях санкционного давления

The subject of the study is the evolution of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation in the context of changing foreign policy factors. The purpose is to analyze the key parameters of Russia’s foreign trade at the present stage and develop measures to accelerate development with updated trading partners. The article is based on structural parametric analysis and modeling of economic processes and systems. The methods of logical, graphoanalytic, statistical, correlation and comparative analysis are used. A statistical and correlation analysis of the foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation has been carried out. The main reasons for the slowdown and acceleration of the development of foreign trade have been identified. The main export and import goods on which the economic security of the state depends are identified. The measures for the development of the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the context of increasing the country’s export potential are proposed. New key trading partners of the Russian Federation have been identified, as well as measures to accelerate the development of trade with such states. Conclusions. In order to accelerate the development of foreign trade in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to improve the domestic market. The proposed measures will improve the economic situation within the state, which will increase the potential of foreign trade activities.

АНАЛИЗ КИТАЙСКОГО ЭКСПОРТА В РОССИЮ В 2022–2023 ГОДАХ

China remains a key trading partner in the context of sanctions against the Russian economy. Chinese brands have seen unprecedented growth, many of them have localized production in Russia to varying degrees. China continues to actively work with the Russian Federation, bypassing sanctions and, largely thanks to Chinese partners, many industries managed to replace the production of certain nodes, which for various reasons Russian manufacturers could not organize. The purpose of this article is to analyze China’s exports to Russia in 2022 and 2023. To achieve this goal, Chinese, Russian and foreign analytical materials and various expert opinions were analyzed.

The nexus between COVID-19 and finfish export from Sri Lanka to its main trading partners; the United States and the European Union

The Sri Lankan seafood sector has been seriously disturbed during the Covid 19 pandemic due to a bleak demand outlook as well as an array of supply challenges. Identification of the effects of this new challenge to the global fish trade is critical to take actions to sustain the market and manage resilience in such uncertain periods. Study aims to assess the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on Sri Lanka's finfish exports to its key trading partners, the United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU). The time series data were gathered from the United Nations commodity trade database between January 2017 and December 2022. Study used structural break point analysis of time series data, followed by time series regression with the Covid-19 impact as a dummy variable using EVIEWS statistical software. Compared to 2019, total finfish exports to the United States dropped by 56.5% in 2020 and 72.5% in 2021 while finfish exports to European market increased by 7% and 28% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The Covid-19 dummy was statistically significant in the time series regression, with a coefficient value of -71.93 in USA trade flow which implies that Covid-19 has a negative impact on finfish trade to the USA. In contrast, statistically significant impact was not found in finfish trade to the EU during the pandemic and this mainly because European seafood market impacted due to Covid-19 yet imports from developing countries fell slightly and overall demand for seafood has remained largely stable throughout 2020. However, study suggested that future research should focus on the country-specific product sensitivity at the individual product level.

Interdependence of the banking system development and the economic growth in the context of digitalization: Case study of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners

When choosing a country as a trading partner, an important role is played by the speed, convenience, and reliability of banking services (this is primarily determined by the level of digitalization of banking activities), and the general level of economic growth of this country. The article analyzes the relationship between the efficiency of the banking system and the country’s economic growth under digitalization using the example of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners. Calculations were made using data for 2010–2021 based on World Bank, IMF, and UN statistics. Principal component analysis was used to identify the most relevant indicators that describe the stability of the banking system, the level of economic development of the country, and the level of digitalization; the method of structural modeling was used to identify functional relationships between the constructed synthetic generalizing indicators. Calculations showed that the development of the banking system is much more (almost seven times) influenced by the level of digitalization in the country than the level of economic growth (coefficients for synthetic generalizing indicators formed in the process of structural modeling are 0.29 and 0.04). Modeling proved that the focus of reforms aimed at increasing the level of digitalization in the country should be an increase in the number of electronic accounts, electronic payments, the share of the population using the Internet, growth of R&D expenditures, and innovation index.

New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African countries

AbstractFollowing a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil‐rich, other‐resources‐rich and non‐resource‐based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short‐term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil‐rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource‐rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket.

Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate

This paper empirically estimates Fiji’s bilateral equilibrium real exchange rate with two of its key trading partners, the US and Australia. Applying the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach, we estimate the equilibrium exchange rate by considering the productivity differential, real interest rate differential, net foreign assets, money supply, and terms of trade. Using monthly data from March 2011 to September 2022 and a system approach to cointegration, a strong relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals is found, but importance of factors differed by trading partner. Our findings show that the Fijian Dollar has been undervalued against both US Dollar and Australian Dollar in recent years, but to varying degrees. Our analysis underlines the importance of assessing bilateral exchange rate misalignments in basket pegs when devising exchange rate policy.

An Overview of Phytosanitary Irradiation Requirements for Australian Pests of Quarantine Concern

Phytosanitary irradiation is used to prevent the introduction or spread of unwanted plant pests and diseases found in horticulture commodities, both in a domestic and international trade setting. Australia started exporting irradiated horticulture commodities to New Zealand in 2004. Since then, exports of irradiated products have continued to grow as phytosanitary irradiation has become more widely accepted for the treatment of plant pests by our international trading partners. Domestically, Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) now allows irradiation of all fresh fruits and vegetables using an irradiation dose of 150 to 1000 Gy for all insect pests. To facilitate further domestic and international trade in Australian irradiated horticulture products, we conducted a literature review to perform the following: (1) identify information gaps (minimum absorbed irradiation dose) for Australian pests of quarantine concern, and (2) identify where differences may exist between the minimum absorbed dose and the regulated dose set, and that is accepted by Australia and key international trading partners. In Australia, a minimum absorbed dose of 400 Gy can be used to treat all insect pests of quarantine concern. However, a lower minimum absorbed dose of 150 Gy is used for many fruit fly species that are important for domestic and international trade. For a limited number of priority insect and non-insect pests highlighted by the horticulture sector, there were gaps found for minimum absorbed irradiation dose in the literature. These pests include Vineyard snail, Serpentine leaf miner and Fuller’s rose weevil. Studies to establish the minimum absorbed dose for Vineyard snails, Serpentine leaf miners and Fuller’s rose weevil are recommended. In addition to the gaps identified for irradiation dose, there is merit in conducting further research to refine (lower) the minimum absorbed dose for specific pests and priority commodities where irradiation has an impact on quality. A reduction in dose may not only benefit product quality but will also reduce both treatment time and cost.

Dynamic connectedness among Pakistani stock markets and its major trading partners

PurposeInternationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects of shocks. In this context, this research is a pioneering effort to investigate the direction and magnitude of return volatility spillovers between Pakistan’s financial markets and those of its key trade partners. This paper examines the relationship between return and volatility spillover in the financial markets of Pakistan and its major trading partners.Design/methodology/approachTen countries are selected for empirical examination of dynamic connectedness among Pakistan and its major trading partner’s stock markets. This study utilizes a spillover index approach model and considers daily, weekly and monthly datasets spanning 25 years from 1995 to 2019.FindingsThe results indicate that stock markets provide efficient channels for return and volatility spillovers. Moreover, it is found that the intensity of spillovers during the financial crisis is more intense as these crises are major determinants of contagion; consequently, investors, speculators and policymakers use these events for their respective purposes.Originality/valueResearchers, practitioners, policymakers and investors may all benefit from the findings in areas including risk management, portfolio diversification and trading methods.

Status, Transition, and Impact of the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration’s Trade Policy with China

China is Korea’s main trade partner in East Asia and one of its key economic and trade partners worldwide. The two countries have complementary industrial structure and a long history of trade exchanges. However, against the backdrop of a return to global trade protectionism and the politicization of international affairs with Yoon Suk-yeol coming to power, South Korea has undertaken a strong trade shift toward the United States (US), triggering a change in the pattern of economic cooperation in East Asia and challenging the regional trade structure. A review of the trade policy agenda of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration toward the US and China, along with a comparative review of Korea’s foreign trade stance under Moon Jae-in, allows for an analysis of the turnaround and characteristics of Yoon’s trade policy toward China during his tenure. The implications for global trade governance and regional security are further analyzed with an aim of finding a Nash equilibrium in trade cooperation among East Asian countries.

Estimation of Russia's GDP Losses Due to Sanctions Using the Global Vector Autoregression Model

Using mathematical and statistical methods, the authors made an attempt to estimate the losses in the domestic economy under the impact of the imposed sanctions. As a measurement tool is proposed a global vector autoregression model. In this model, the dynamics of GDP is considered as the main performance characteristic, and the rate of change in foreign trade turnover with key partners is used as the key prerequisites for the forecast. The use of this model building scheme is explained by the fact that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia have a negative impact on domestic macroeconomic indicators, and this happens through a variety of channels, key ones being the restriction of external demand and supply, leading to a decrease in trade turnover with the main trading partners, and change in oil revenues. This approach takes into account the relationship between the economies of different countries and their dependence on global markets. To obtain quantitative estimates, conditional forecasts are used as part of scenario analysis.According to the authors’ approach the losses from economic sanctions are measured by the decrease in the volume of Russia's foreign trade with key foreign trade partners, as well as by the discount for Russian oil compared to its global price. In addition to the forecast estimates, the validity of the approach is proofed with the forecast for the crisis period of 2014–2015 as an example. Based on the analysis of the current situation in foreign trade, Russian GDP in 2022 in the baseline scenario may fall by 5.4%, but with some reorientation of trade a decrease may be around 3.7%.

ОЦЕНКА ДВУСТОРОННЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ РФ-АСЕАН ПОД ВЛИЯНИЕМ САНКЦИЙ

Unprecedented sanctions against Russia have changed the direction of foreign trade cooperation, transferring commodity flows to the East. The article presents an assessment of the vector, analysis of the current situation and dynamics of mutual trade between the Russian Federation and the ASEAN countries, which are a promising region for expanding foreign trade operations. Particular attention is paid to the commodity structure of trade flows, the main and priority areas of cooperation are identified, and their contribution is assessed. Key trading partners in the region have been identified. It was concluded that the dynamics of trade operations were largely determined by the situation in global markets and the state of industries in partner countries. The sanctions also had an impact on certain items of the Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity.