Key Macroeconomic Variables Research Articles

Oil and stock market momentum

This study provides a novel perspective to the oil-stock market nexus by examining the predictive ability of oil return and volatility on stock market momentum in China. We find that oil return volatility serves as a strong predictor of industry momentum, even after controlling for stock market state, volatility and key macroeconomic variables. We argue that the predictive ability of oil over momentum payoffs is driven by time-varying investor sentiment that relates to excess buying pressure on winner stocks during uncertain times, captured by oil return volatility. Our tests also show that an oil-based momentum strategy wherein the investor conditions the trade on the state of oil return volatility yields significant abnormal returns, more than double that could be obtained from the conventional momentum strategy. In short, the findings suggest that oil market dynamics can contribute to stock market inefficiencies in such a way that these inefficiencies create significant abnormal profits for active managers.

A DSGE Model of Slovakia with Frictional Labor Market and Monetary Regime Switch

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to examine the dynamical and structural characteristics of Slovakia using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with search and matching mechanisms and other forms of frictions. I implement a switching mechanism to account for the monetary regime change in Slovakia in 2009. My focus lies in the investigation of labor market rigidities that affect the macroeconomic variables. I also examine the long term impact of the recession in 2009 on the Slovak economy. My findings are as follows. Firstly, based on parameter estimates, I identify significant labor market frictions present in the Slovak Republic. Secondly, my results capturing the historical evolution of key macroeconomic variables support the view that the recession in the examined small open economy was mainly caused by shocks originating in the foreign sector. Thirdly, the monetary authority can influence the labor market variables through its transmission channels relatively effectively; and lastly, I discovered that the recession decreased the Slovak economy’s flexibility. While the results of estimations on two sub-samples are quite similar for most of the structural parameters, an increase in price and wage stickiness is observable.

Can oil prices help predict US stock market returns? Evidence using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach

Crude oil price behaviour has fluctuated wildly since 1973 which has a major impact on key macroeconomic variables. Although the relationship between stock market returns and oil price changes has been scrutinized excessively in the literature, the possibility of predicting future stock market returns using oil prices has attracted less attention. This paper investigates the ability of oil prices to predict S&P 500 price index returns with the use of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Including all the potential variables in a forecasting model may result in an over-fitted model. So instead, dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) are applied to utilize their ability of allowing the best forecasting model to change over time while parameters are also allowed to change. The empirical evidence shows that applying the DMA/DMS approach leads to significant improvements in forecasting performance in comparison to other forecasting methodologies and the performance of these models are better when oil prices are included within predictors.

Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility

Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background,we explore whether incorporating stochastic volatility improves DSGE forecasts (point, interval, and density). We examine real-time forecast accuracy for key macroeconomic variables including output growth, inflation, and the policy rate. We find that incorporating stochastic volatility in DSGE models of macroeconomic fundamentals markedly improves their density forecasts, just as incorporating stochastic volatility in models of financial asset returns improves their density forecasts.

Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences

In this paper, we introduce a complementary relationship between consumption and labor hours by revising the household’s period utility function in Liu et al. (2013). The revision concomitantly allows for a finite Frisch elasticity of labor supply and a stronger consumption smoothing motive. We find that, in general, the estimation of Liu et al. (2013) is quite robust. In addition, the propagation mechanism of the credit constraint triggered by a housing demand shock still persists. However, the amplification effect of the credit constraint triggered by the housing demand shock on key macroeconomic variables is greatly muted. We also find that, except for land price fluctuations, the housing demand shock cannot act as the primary force to drive the fluctuations in other macroeconomic variables.

The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia

This study reviews the relevant literature on oil price impacts and then applies both asymptotic and bootstrap distribution techniques to model various oil price shocks and to subsequently evaluate their impacts on key macroeconomic variables in Liberia.First, we find that different oil shock measures yield different effects. Second, asymmetries in oil price exist and can be explained by Liberia's lack of structured financial markets and tight monetary policy controls. Third, the impact of oil shocks on all variables is limited to the short-run. Fourth, unlike most developed economies, falling oil price regimes yield no benefits to economic growth in the short-run, but rising oil prices appear to stimulate the Liberian economy.Therefore, we argue that when oil price increases in Liberia, the high costs of reallocating resources from oil-intensive sectors lead to labor intensiveness; whose contribution to Liberian GDP by far exceeds that of oil. Hence, a general insight from the study is that where substitution possibilities exist, rising oil prices lead to high labor and capital intensity and could have off-setting effects depending on the contribution of these factors to GDP. Thus, falling oil price regimes in Liberia should witness policy measures aimed at boosting the service sector.

International Capital Markets with Time-Varying Preferences

We propose a 2-country asset-pricing model where agents' preferences change endogenously as a function of the popularity of internationally traded goods. We determine the effect of the time-variation of preferences on equity markets, consumption and portfolio choices. When agents are more sensitive to the popularity of domestic consumption goods, the local stock market reacts more strongly to the preferences of local agents than to the preferences of foreign agents. Therefore, home bias arises because home-country stock represents a better investment opportunity for hedging against future fluctuations in preferences. We test our model and find that preference evolution is a plausible driver of key macroeconomic variables and stock returns.

TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN INDIA

In this paper, we develop a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the relative importance of two key technology shocks, Hicks neutral total factor productivity (TFP) shock and investment specific technology (IST) shock for an emerging market economy like India. In addition to these two shocks, our model includes three demand side shocks such as fiscal spending, home interest rate, and foreign interest rate. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimate our DSGE model with Indian annual data for key macroeconomic variables over the period of 1971–2010, and for subsamples of pre-liberalization (1971–1990) and post-liberalization (1991–2010) periods. Our study reveals three main results. First, output correlates positively with TFP, but negatively with IST. Second, TFP and IST shocks are the first and the second most important contributors to aggregate fluctuations in India. In contrast, the demand side disturbances play a limited role. Third, although TFP plays a major role in determining aggregate fluctuations, its importance vis-à-vis IST has declined during the post liberalization era. We find that structural shifts of nominal friction and relative home bias for consumption to investment in the post-liberalization period can account for the rising importance of the IST shocks in India.

An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China

The macroeconomic forecasts for emerging economies often suffer from the constraints of instability and limited data. In light of these constraints, we propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model with a data-driven estimation window, i.e., a local homogenous interval, that is adaptively identified to strike a balance between information efficiency and stability. When applied to three key macroeconomic variables of China, the LAR model substantially outperforms the alternative models for various forecast horizons of 3 to 12 months, with forecast error reductions of between 4% and 64% for the IP growth, and between 1% and 68% for the inflation rate. The one-quarter ahead performance of the LAR model matches that of a well-known survey forecast. The patterns of the identified local intervals also coincide with the characteristic evolution of the gradual reforms and monetary policy shifts in China. In short, the LAR model is suitable for not only forecasting, but also the real-time monitoring of the effects of regime and policy changes in emerging economies.

INTERPRETATION OF ELEMENTS UPSETTING EXPORT GROWTH IN PAKISTAN

Exports are the important instrument of economic growth. Instabilities in export earnings present uncertainties in an economy. These uncertainties bring significant impact over the economic behavior by poorly upsetting the proficiency of investment and in turn have an adverse effect on economic growth. The core objective of this study is to find the impact of some of the key macroeconomic variables that affect exports growth of Pakistan. The data is from the year 1972- 2012. Johansen Juselius (1990) test is implemented for getting the desired results. The results show that all of the variables sustain a positive relation to Export. Conclusion drawn is the need of obligatory steps required to be taken by the Government so as to build a nation on the footings of strong export receipts.

Regional economic integration in Mercosur: The role of real and financial sectors

This study explores economic interdependence in Mercosur by examining common trends and common cycles among key macro-variables representing both the real and financial sectors of the economy. The serial correlation common features test reveals that the key macroeconomic variables (real output, investment, and intra-regional trade) share common trends in the long run suggesting that macroeconomic interdependence in the Mercosur economies is strong. The exchange rates demonstrate co-movement in the long run as they share a single common trend. These finding suggests that these economies cannot swing away from long-run equilibrium for an extended duration; they will be brought together by their common trends. Similarly, each variable under consideration shares common cycles lending support to the notion of short-run synchronous movement. The trend-cycle decomposition results reveal that the cyclical movements of real output and trade are synchronized with a high degree of positive correlations. Our overall findings thus provide justification and optimism for deeper economic integration among Mercosur countries.

Global macroeconomic uncertainty

We empirically identify global macroeconomic uncertainty using a dynamic factor model, where the conditional variances of all factors are modeled as stochastic volatility processes. Applying this methodology to OECD data, we find the early 1970s and early 1980s recessions as well as the recent Great Recession of the late 2000s to be associated with increases in uncertainty at the global level, but heightened uncertainty during the early 1990s and 2000s slowdowns to be mostly confined to the national levels. We also find that global uncertainty unambiguously lowers national growth rates and raises national inflation rates, and that key macroeconomic variables like oil, commodity and stock prices as well as global liquidity act as drivers of the global dimension of uncertainty.

Assessing the stochastic stability of public debt: the case of Austria

This paper characterizes the long-run distribution of Austrian public debt using a Markov chain model of the debt-GDP ratio and several key macroeconomic variables. We apply Bayesian techniques to estimate the transition probabilities of the model which allows to incorporate information from other countries. Based on the model, we argue that the historical record of Austrian fiscal policy is consistent with a stable long-run distribution of the debt-GDP ratio with an expected value close to the 60% threshold of the Maastricht treaty. Our results suggests that the strong increase in the debt-GDP ratio in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis should be seen as a transitory tail event rather than as a sign of long-run unsustainability. However, we also show that the existence of a stable long-run distribution depends on a continuing tendency of fiscal policy to “lean against debt” by reducing the primary deficit in face of rising debt. Finally we assess how exogenous shocks to the primary deficit and real GDP growth affect the model-implied distribution.

Does the New Keynesian Phillips curve need countercyclical markups?

This paper examines the behavior of four types of markup measures and its implications for the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The four types of measures are a procyclical measure, a weakly procyclical measure, an acyclical measure and a countercyclical measure. Motivated by the fact that the U.S. markup has shifted up dramatically since the early 2000s, the paper also presents both empirical dynamics and a new Keynesian model featuring nonstationary markups. After inspecting empirical dynamics of key macroeconomic variables and the performance of the model, it points out that weakly procyclical or acyclical markups are more consistent with the purely forward-looking NKPC. Moreover, a major shortcoming of standard new Keynesian models is their inability to trace the actual behavior of the markup in response to a demand shock.

Is Improving the Worth of Human Capital a Key Strategy for Bahrain? Empirical Evidence

The aim of this paper is to develop a macroeconometric model for emerging economies as in the case of Bahrain (the most open economy in GCC region) to measure the impact of human capital investment on key macroeconomic indicators (1990 through 2016). The paper also makes an attempt to forecast the effects of changes in government spending on education as a percentage of GDP on the country’s key macroeconomic variables through simulation under 3 different scenarios for the next five years. The main findings point out that an increase in government spending on education over time has a positive influence on human capital in terms of increased employment along with positive effect on output, private investments and consumption whilst contributing to lower inflation rate.

Investment in education and its impact on economy of nepal (An empirical analysis of educational spending to agriculture productivity)

Using 20 years of time series data, 1994 -2014 , on key macro-economic variables the present paper attempts to examine the significance of public spending in education in GDP through agriculture technical education. We argue that education plays a crucial role in the adaptation of new agriculture technology and methodologies through the availability of more trained agriculture Agriculture manpower including extension workers and thereby help increase agriculture productivity. The increase in agriculture productivity eventually helps to increase the GDP of the country. Results from our econometric analyses revealed that variables like students enrollment in agriculture and forestry institute and agriculture output ratio in GDP are not in expected direction though this one is statistically significant. The result thus signifies that the impact of investment in education especially in agriculture and forestry technical education is inconclusive demanding more deeper analysis is about the possible mechanism of the nexus between the two.

The effect of terrorism on tourism development in Nigeria

This article investigated the tourism–terrorism nexus in Nigeria using quarterly time series data within a vector autoregression analytical framework. Unlike extant studies, we gauge the influence of terrorism shocks on the tourism sector specifically on the one hand and broadly the response of some key macroeconomic variables on the other hand. Several interesting results ensued. To sum up these findings, we found a negative response of tourism revenues to terrorist incidents over the long haul as well as adverse effects on other key macroeconomic variables. Therefore, government policies to revamp the ailing economy should be complemented with well-tailored counter-terrorism approaches for effectiveness.

Global Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Pakistan

This article investigates monetary policy effectiveness in Pakistan in the presence of external uncertainties stemming from the economic growth of developed economies and international oil price movements. We estimate a structural VAR model to gauge the impact of international oil prices and global demand on key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. Our findings suggest that monetary policy remains an effective tool for controlling inflation. An increase in oil prices (supply shock) leads to higher real policy rates, real exchange rate depreciation, an economic growth slowdown and rising inflation. A global demand surge leads to higher real policy rates, real exchange rate appreciation, economic growth and rising inflation. Real policy rates adjust upward in response to inflation and real exchange rate shocks. The real exchange rate depreciates if inflation increases. This indicates that the monetary authorities in Pakistan are generally able to stabilize consumer prices and real exchange rates in the economy.

The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

International Capital Markets with Time-Varying Preferences

We propose a 2-country asset-pricing model where agents' preferences change endogenously as a function of the popularity of internationally traded goods. We determine the effect of the time-variation of preferences on equity markets, consumption and portfolio choices. When agents are more sensitive to the popularity of domestic consumption goods, the local stock market reacts more strongly to the preferences of local agents than to the preferences of foreign agents. Therefore, home bias arises because home-country stock represents a better investment opportunity for hedging against future fluctuations in preferences. We test our model and find that preference evolution is a plausible driver of key macroeconomic variables and stock returns.