Key Macroeconomic Indicators Research Articles

Exchange rate flexibilization and macroeconomic determinants: Evidence from MENA region

Many emerging economies have significantly changed their economic policies by adopting floating exchange rate regimes. This article aims to investigate the relationship between exchange rate variations and key macroeconomic indicators in the MENA region, focusing specifically on Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey. The study employs regression analysis to explore how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, trade balances, foreign exchange reserves, etc. influence exchange rate movements in these economies. By conducting a comprehensive regression model, we aim to provide insights into the complex dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations and their implications for economic stability and policymaking in the MENA region.

Shades of Resistance: Factors Influencing Populist Mobilization Against the EU Budgetary Conditionality Regime

Although the past decade has shown how populist governments may challenge the EU’s budgetary framework, we still lack an understanding of the circumstances under which populists are more likely to mobilize against EU-level decision-making in this field, and what this mobilization may look like. Combining the literature on populism as an ideology and EU decision-making, the article zooms in on the negotiations regarding the general regime of conditionality in EU budgetary politics and argues that economic and political factors have influenced populist mobilization. A qualitative comparison of the nine cases where populist parties feature in the government highlights that only two countries, Poland and Hungary, have actively opposed the introduction of the so-called rule-of-law conditionality. A closer look indicates that a combination of Euroscepticism, European Parliamentary affiliation, membership in the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and the political power that populist parties possess at home, along with key macroeconomic indicators, have influenced populists in government to mobilize against the conditionality mechanism. In the second part of the analysis, the article showcases the actions of the Hungarian government, highlighting it as a specific example of populist mobilization. Viktor Orbán’s government has built a populist narrative around the issue, questioned the norm of the decision-making process, exerted a veto to block the agreement temporarily, and later challenged the regulation in court—in short, it engaged in unpolitics.

Stock Markets Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics

There is a consensus that stock markets are procyclical. However, answers to some important questions remain unclear. Do stock markets lead or lag business cycles? More interestingly, what is the duration with which they lead or lag them? This study uses different time-series filters and time-difference analysis to answer these questions by examining the dynamic interactions between three major stock indices and key macroeconomic indicators in the United States. The findings show that stock markets have been strongly procyclical, lagging industrial production by one to three months in recent decades. There have been noteworthy changes in the relationship between inflation and stock market cycles. The correlations changed from negative in the 1980s and 1990s to positive in the 2000s and 2010s. The results also reveal close associations between the stock indices, offering new insights into the interplay between financial markets and economic cycles.

THEORETICAL ASPECTS AND ESSENTIAL DEFINITIONS OF REGIONAL ECONOMY STATE REGULATION IN MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY CONTEXT

Objective. The objective of the article is to analyze and systematize the theoretical aspects and essential definitions of state regulation of the economy of regions in the context of macroeconomic instability, as well as to determine the basic principles of effective management of regional policy in the context of macroeconomic instability. Methods. The following methods are applied to conduct the research: the analysis method (to study the theoretical aspects and determine the essential definitions of the state regulation of the economy of the regions), the induction method (to highlight the areas of application of methodological approaches to the assessment of the effective management of regional policy in conditions of macroeconomic instability and to define key concepts which are based on scientific approaches to the state regulation of the economy of regions in conditions of macroeconomic instability) and a graphic method (for building a refined scheme of the components of macroeconomic instability of regions and expanding the directions for overcoming them). Results. Macroeconomic instability is characterized by significant fluctuations in key macroeconomic indicators which may be caused by internal and external economic, political, and social factors. Macroeconomic instability affects regional development due to reduced investment, reduced budget revenues, increased unemployment and social tension. In order to achieve socio-economic stability and successful development of the region, state regulation should ensure successful overcoming of macroeconomic instability by forecasting crisis phenomena, preventing them and creating reserves in advance to eliminate their consequences. The key factor is the definition and consideration of all components of macroeconomic instability. The proposed sixth component of regional macroeconomic instability - military instability - requires the development of comprehensive security strategies, including strengthening the country's defense capabilities, providing social and economic support for affected regions as well as active international cooperation for post-war reconstruction, maintaining peace and stability. It is also important to deal with issues of reintegration of the affected territories and population, restoration of infrastructure and economic activity in conflict zones.

Long Run and Short Run Relationships Between Sensex Macro Economic Variables

This study delves into the intricate relationships between the Sensex, India's premier stock market index, and key macroeconomic variables, highlighting both long-term and short-term interactions. Macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, and foreign exchange reserves are analysed to understand their impact on the Sensex. Additionally, the study considers microeconomic variables, providing a comprehensive view of economic dynamics. By utilizing econometric methods like Vector Auto regression (VAR) and Johansen co integration tests, the research aims to distinguish between immediate economic shocks and sustained economic trends affecting the Sensex. The investigation focuses on Aditya Birla Money as a case study to explore financial market dynamics. The identified research gap emphasizes the need to consider the influence of emerging digital financial assets and fin tech innovations on traditional macroeconomic variables and market stability. By addressing this gap, the study aims to provide a deeper understanding of how technological advancements and digital transformation interact with established economic indicators to affect financial markets. The primary objectives include examining the long-term and short-term relationships between the Sensex and key macroeconomic indicators, identifying the most significant factors influencing Sensex performance, and assessing the predictive power of these variables. Data collection involves both primary sources, such as interviews with financial experts, and secondary sources, including financial databases. The study's findings are expected to offer valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts, aiding in informed decision-making and enhancing strategies for risk management in the ever-evolving economic landscape.

Dimensionality reduction analysis of the renewable energy sector in Azerbaijan: nonparametric analyses of large datasets

Although the number of econometric analyses related to the renewable energy sector in Azerbaijan is increasing, studies on nonparametric dimensionality reduction are rather sparse. Principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) were chosen to fill this apparent research gap. As a result, a large dataset including the renewable energy sector and selected key macroeconomic indicators was evaluated. The PCA procedure yielded four distinct principle components reflecting the main macroeconomic variables, renewable energy production, industry-energy relations and natural resource revenues. The PCA method offers the possibility to examine the precise correlations and the underlying patterns between the displayed clusters of variables. Meanwhile, the MCA-based cross-country assessment of Azerbaijan’s wind, solar and hydropower has struck somewhat pessimistic notes, as the country lags behind neighbouring and other post-Soviet countries (e.g. Estonia, Iran, Latvia, Russia) in developing its green energy sector. These findings are of great interest to policymakers, businesses and academics who wish to gain deep insight into the Azerbaijani economy in terms of renewable energy production. The practical value of the present work also lies in the fact that it analyses a multidimensional and relatively longitudinal dataset (1990–2022), which is an example of a methodological application of two nonparametric approaches.

Bibliometric Exploration of the Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This research explores the relationship between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability through in-depth bibliometric analysis, utilizing articles from various academic databases. Focusing on Indonesia, this study identifies trends, patterns and empirical evidence showing the impact of various fiscal policy tools on key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates and unemployment rates. Through a methodology that includes data collection, processing, descriptive analysis, and visualization, this research provides insights into the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy as well as its interaction with monetary policy. The results show that effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially in the face of economic crises. From a bibliometric perspective, this analysis also reveals underexplored research areas that have potential for further investigation.

Towards a cleaner and sustainable Europe and Central Asia: An investigation of the logistics‐environment nexus

AbstractThe logistics industry is the backbone of global trade and is crucial for the attainment of economic progress across the world. However, the industry involves activities that increase the consumption of energy resources including fossil fuels, which harms the environment. Thus, with a special focus on Europe and Central Asia, this study explores the logistics‐environment by evaluating the impact of logistics performance (LP) on environmental performance (EP) while controlling for key macroeconomic indicators such as income, trade openness, foreign direct investment, and industrialization. The motivation for this study is derived from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs‐11 and 13) which highlight sustainability and climate change mitigation. Using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood with high‐dimensional fixed effects (PPMLHDFE) for 47 European and Central Asian countries over the period 2007–2018, the findings revealed that the overall logistic performance, and some of its components—customs, trade, and transport infrastructure, and tracing and tracking have a significant positive impact on the overall EP, environmental health, and ecosystem vitality. Additionally, the study confirms the detrimental effects of economic growth, trade, and industrialization on environmental quality and health from logistics and supply chain management (SCM) perspectives. Further policy caveats and suggestions are elucidated in the concluding section.

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET

The research paper investigates the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on the Indian stock market performance. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning key macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance metrics, the statistical analysis techniques to examine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market movements is employed. The study focuses on understanding how changes in Foreign Portfolio Net Investments, Index of Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate can influence investor sentiment and trading behaviour in the Indian stock market. The findings of this research contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance in India, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial institutions. Keywords: Foreign Portfolio Net Investments (FPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate(ER), NIFTY, Indian Stock Market, Inflation.

Determinant on Economic Growth in Developing Country: A Special Case Regarding Turkey and Bangladesh

AbstractThis study delves into the complex interplay between gross domestic product (GDP) and key macroeconomic indicators in the contexts of Turkey and Bangladesh. By examining panel data spanning from 1981 to 2020 sourced from the World Bank, we investigate the causal relationships between GDP growth and various factors including population growth, inflation, literacy rate, natural resource utilization, investment, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Our research aims to address critical questions regarding the economic trajectories of these two emerging economies. Specifically, we seek to understand how different macroeconomic variables influence GDP growth in Bangladesh and Turkey, while also exploring the unique socio-economic landscapes of these nations. Methodologically, we employ the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test to analyze the causal relationships between GDP growth and the aforementioned macroeconomic indicators. Our findings reveal direct, statistically significant associations between GDP growth and these variables, with population growth emerging as a particularly influential factor. The implications of our study extend beyond empirical observations, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to foster sustainable economic development in both Bangladesh and Turkey. By identifying the key drivers of GDP growth and their impact on economic performance, our research contributes to the existing body of literature on economic development in emerging economies. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the intricate dynamics of GDP growth in Turkey and Bangladesh, highlighting the importance of understanding and leveraging macroeconomic indicators to promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth in these nations.

Macroeconomics Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads Among Commercial Banks in Kenya

The determination of interest rate spread in commercial banks is influenced by various macroeconomic variables, market microstructure features and the policy environment. However, studies on factors that contribute to the interest rate spreads among commercial banks in Kenya have produced mixed results that calls for further research. This study aimed to assess the determinants of interest rate spread in commercial banks in Kenya. Specifically, the study sought to establish the effect of inflation rate, domestic borrowing, credit risk and exchange rate risk on the interest rate spreads among commercial banks in Kenya. The study was anchored on fisher hypothesis, classical theory of interest and loanable fund theories. Explanatory research design was adopted to establish the causal relationship between the study’s variables. Secondary data of the study for the period between 1970 -2022 was extracted from annual financial statements of commercial banks targeted by the study and Central bank of Kenya annual reports. Data was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics. The study adopted the regression model to obtain results. Based on the regression results, the study found that domestic borrowing had a significant positive effect on interest rate spreads among commercial banks in Kenya. Additionally, the study found that inflation rate, credit risk and exchange rate risk had a significant positive effect on interest rate spreads among commercial banks in Kenya. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, domestic borrowing, credit risk and exchange rate risks are key determinants of interest rate spread among commercial banks in Kenya. The study made the following recommendations to regulators and policy makers. First, ensure that the central bank's monetary policy actions effectively influence interest rates throughout the banking system and also Implement mechanisms to improve the transmission of changes in the central bank's policy rates to commercial banks' lending and deposit rates. Secondly, establish a framework for monitoring key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, exchange rates, and fiscal policies to identify potential factors impacting interest rate spreads and use the monitoring results to formulate timely and appropriate policy responses. The study recommends that future studies should conduct studies across different countries which could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the subject matter.

Financial shock transmission in China's banking and housing sectors: A network analysis

Rising housing prices in China present a significant risk to financial and economic stability. Our study investigates this "gray rhino" risk by analyzing the financial shock transmission network, using a novel high-dimensional network approach applied to data from 45 real estate firms and 15 banks from 2011 to 2023. We discover that the network's connectedness is predominantly short-term and internal to each sector, with weaker inter-sectoral links. Key macroeconomic indicators, notably monetary policy uncertainty, and inflation, significantly drive this connectedness. Our results indicate that, despite concerns, China's real estate risk remains within manageable bounds, offering critical insights for market stakeholders.

Results of 2023 for Regional Budgets. Is the Restructuring of the Economy Visible?

The generally favorable situation with the implementation of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2023 is a result of the positive dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators, expressed in an increase in tax revenues of budgets. In the context of generally high growth rates of tax revenues, the federal transfers showed a slight nominal increase. In most regions, there has been a reduction in federal transfer recеipts, which may indirectly indicate an emerging revision of the existing model of inter-budgetary relations. There is a certain dependence of the dynamics of transfers on the dynamics of tax revenues and the availability of funds (last year’s surpluses) in the budget accounts of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The structure of tax revenues by type of economic activity has not yet shown significant changes. There is a pronounced decrease in the share of wholesale and retail trade, against the background of an increase in the share of the financial sector and extractive activities. Expenditures of regional budgets in 2 023 grew more actively than revenues, which led to the formation of a deficit in the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The differing growth rates of budget expenditures have the consequence of the continued concentration of regional-level expenditures in a relatively narrow group of the most powerful regions in terms of economic potential. The increase in the volume of accumulated state subfederal debt occurs in conditions of active substitution of market forms of debt obligations with loans from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

Role of Macroeconomic Indicators and Strategic Management in Afghanistan's Economic Growth

Macroeconomic indicators provide valuable insights into the economic trends and health of a nation. This study focuses on assessing the impact of key macroeconomic indicators—foreign direct investment, inflation, industrial output, exchange rate, and money supply—on the economic development of Afghanistan from 2000 to 2021. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of trade, interest rates, labor force, and inflation on Afghanistan's GDP. The findings indicate that trade (TR) is statistically significant and has a positive impact on GDP, as it creates better job opportunities, reduces poverty, and enhances economic prospects. Interest rates (IR), while statistically significant, show a negative correlation with GDP. Increased interest rates lead to reduced spending by firms and consumers, subsequently lowering profits, stock prices, and overall GDP. The labor force (LF) is also found to be statistically significant and positively influences GDP, highlighting the essential role of labor in the production of goods and services. Conversely, inflation (IF) is statistically insignificant and negatively impacts GDP. Rising labor and raw material costs drive inflation, leading to higher prices for goods and services, which can dampen consumer spending. This study underscores the critical role of macroeconomic indicators in shaping economic development and provides a comprehensive analysis of their impact on Afghanistan’s economic growth. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers and economists aiming to foster economic stability and growth in Afghanistan.

Implementation of Neural Network in Early Detection of Financial Crisis in Singapore

The financial crisis that occurred in 1997 and 2008 had a negative impact on several countries, including Singapore. A financial crisis can occur suddenly so it can endanger a country’s economy if it is not prepared for it. Therefore, early detection of financial crises is needed as a form of crisis warning so that the government can anticipate and prepare appropriate policies. The independent variables used are monthly data of 11 key macroeconomic and financial indicators of Singapore’s economy from January 1990 to June 2021. The Perfect signal is used as the dependent variable in the crisis early detection system. This study aims to build a model of a financial crisis detection system in Singapore using Multilayer Perceptron Backpropagation (MLPBP) as a neural network algorithm by comparing the optimization of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and Nesterov-accelerated Adaptive Moment Estimation (Nadam). The optimal hyperparameter value in the model was searched using the grid search method based on the accuracy and obtained the best model with 11-11-1 network architecture, best optimization is Nadam, learning rate = 0.1;

Understanding Monetary Policy Communication in a Small and Open Economy Under an Exchange Rate Anchor: The Case of North Macedonia

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to provide insights into the readability, structure, and tone of monetary policy communication in the case of the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM), a small and open economy operating under an exchange rate anchor. The results indicate the NBRNM generally communicates with a neutral tone while its communication is complex in terms of syntax and structure. The dominant topic is inflation and financial markets, followed by monetary policy, economic growth, and the foreign exchange market. Further, topic proportions and tone are analyzed in relation to key macroeconomic indicators.

CONTEMPORARY TRENDS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN UKRAINE

The article examines the impact of external and internal factors on the macroeconomic situation and business environment in Ukraine. It discusses the peculiarities of the business environment's reaction to unstable conditions, including the presence of financial reserves in companies, cost optimization, and management strategies. The influence of war on the demand and supply of services, changes in the economic structure, and new requirements for businesses are analyzed in detail. The size and basic characteristics of economic sectors are studied, and factors affecting business efficiency in Ukraine are identified. The article focuses on determining the interrelations between the development of the business environment and economic processes in Ukraine. It reviews the specificities of Ukraine's macroeconomic situation during wartime and the impact of external and internal factors on economic development. Moreover, key macroeconomic indicators are analyzed based on statistical data, and a detailed study is conducted on how full-scale war affects Ukraine's economy. The reaction of the business environment to unstable conditions, including the availability of financial reserves in companies, cost optimization, and management strategies, is also analyzed. Special attention is paid to the impact of war on demand and supply. The segments of the economy most affected by the war are examined, as well as changes in the economic structure. The size and basic characteristics of the economy are analyzed, and trends in development and factors influencing its efficiency are identified. Various methods are used in the study, including analysis of statistical data, expert surveys, and comparative analysis with macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the research is oriented towards determining the interrelations between the influence of external factors and economic processes in Ukraine. Based on the obtained data, regularities of economic development in Ukraine are formed, and a forecast for the economy's development in 2024 is constructed. The conclusions of the study may be useful for professionals interested in Ukraine's macroeconomic processes, as well as for businesses and government structures involved in strategic planning.

Economic uncertainty and life insurance: Bayesian Network Analysis at the level of European Union

This paper examines the relationship between economic uncertainty and the life insurance sector in the member states of the European Union (EU), with a focus on several key macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, Gross Domestic Product growth and unemployment. Using a comprehensive dataset covering the diversity of the EU Member States over a ten-year period, econometric methods, like Bayesian Network Analysis are used to analyse the relationship between economic uncertainty indicators and life insurance performance indicators. The findings suggest a complex interplay between economic indicators and life insurance. Inflation appears as a significant factor, and unemployment, another crucial economic indicator, shows a mixed relationship in terms of life insurance demand. Therefore, in the context of an interconnected global economy, understanding how economic uncertainty influences demand for life insurance products is essential for policymakers, insurers and consumers alike.

Inflation and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

In Nigeria, high inflation has been one of the major challenges facing the nation’s economy. This has necessitated the re-evaluation of the impact of inflation on the nation’s macroeconomic performance between 1981 and 2022. The data utilized were sourced from the secondary sources like Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2022 and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Report. The inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate served as independent variables, while per capita income and gross fixed capital formation (proxy for private investment) served as the dependent variables. The outcome of the unit root tests showed that all the variables were not stationarity at level, but became stationary after first difference which informed the use of Error Correction Model (ECM) test approach. The results from the per capita income model, revealed that an increase in inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate erodes the value of the per capita income of the citizens. The result from the private investment model, showed that an increase in inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate reduces the level of private domestic investment. The policy implication of these results is that negative impact of inflation on these key macroeconomic indicators suggests that high or volatile inflation rates can hinder economic growth and development. The paper therefore recommends amongst others, that the central bank should adopt appropriate monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation rates within acceptable levels. This may involve adjusting interest rates, managing money supply, and employing other monetary tools to stabilize prices. Furthermore, government should prioritize fiscal discipline and prudent spending to avoid excessive budget deficits that can fuel inflationary pressures and allocate funds towards productive investments and infrastructure projects that stimulates economic growth without exacerbating inflation.

Economic Policy Objectives of the First Orbán Government (1998–2002)

The right-wing coalition government, which came to power in May 1998, led by Viktor Orbán, broke with the former applied neoliberal paradigm and began to pursue economic patriotism, which placed emphasis on assisting the activities of Hungarian SMEs. It also focused on boosting domestic consumption by supporting families to have children through state incentives. Thanks to these measures introduced between 1998 and 2002, both the government deficit and gross government debt started to fall substantially, which reduced the external vulnerability of the Hungarian economy. The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic policy objectives of the first Orbán government between 1998 and 2002. Emphasis will be placed on evaluating the key macroeconomic indicators of Hungary while taking into account both internal and external factors. Due to length constraints, the essay will not highlight domestic politics, but it gives an overview of the main features of economic patriotism from a European perspective.