Key Low-carbon Technologies Research Articles

Knowledge Graph of Low-Carbon Technologies in the Energy Sector and Cost Evolution Based on LDA2Vec: A Case Study in China

Climate change has attracted global attention, highlighting the critical role of low-carbon technologies in addressing environmental challenges. Due to the multidisciplinary nature, complexity, and diversity of research content on low-carbon technologies, a comprehensive overview is still limited. This paper uses bibliometrics analysis to discuss the research status and hotspots of low-carbon technology from a macro-perspective. The LDA2Vec topic recognition model is adopted to identify key technical terms, and CiteSpace software 6.3.1 Advanced Edition is used to conduct in-depth analysis of the development trajectory of low-carbon technology. After checking the frequency of the relevant keywords, four key techniques were identified. In order to further analyze the research results, the learning curve theory is used to predict the cost development trend of key low-carbon technologies. The results show that: (i) low-carbon technologies play a key role in the energy sector and have a potential impact on policy making, and the cost of related technologies will be significantly reduced in the next few years. (ii) Global low-carbon technologies have entered an important period of development, but remaining challenges need to be addressed by optimizing technological performance. (iii) It is very important to strengthen the research on hydrogen production technology and photovoltaic power generation technology; the cost reduction in hydrogen production technology is still significant and there is room for further optimization. (iv) To effectively address the high costs and technical barriers associated with emerging low-carbon technologies, increased funding for research and development is critical.

Carbon emission scenario prediction for highway construction projects

In order to carry out the research on the measurement and prediction of carbon emissions from highway projects, the prediction index system is constructed by selecting seven influencing factors, namely, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, key low-carbon technologies, highway construction planning, and green financial support. The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the carbon emissions of highway projects from the perspective of energy consumption, and finally, a carbon emission scenario prediction model based on the scenario analysis method and the LSTM algorithm of the recurrent neural network is constructed to put forward a new way of predicting the carbon emissions of highway projects. Taking Hunan province as a case study object, the carbon emission trends in the next 15 years are predicted under three scenarios: low carbon, baseline, and high carbon. The results show that the highway project in Hunan province is expected to peak in 2031 under the low-carbon scenario, in 2037 under the baseline scenario, and around 2044 under the high-carbon scenario. It is also found that energy saving and emission reduction measures have a certain lag in the emission reduction effect of highway projects. Finally, based on this, suggestions and countermeasures for carbon emission reduction of highway development in Hunan province are proposed.

Low-carbon technology selection and carbon reduction potential assessment in the shipbuilding industry with dynamically changing grid emission factors

The shipbuilding industry is a vital sector involved in manufacturing ships and marine structures. It serves critical roles in shipping, maritime development, and national defense, which contributes significantly to employment, international trade, and national security. Nevertheless, the shipbuilding industry is under enormous pressure to curtail carbon emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) requires a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from both existing and new ships by 2030 compared to the 2008 baseline. This stems from the industry's high-carbon emission nature, making it imperative to adopt sustainable solutions that minimize its environmental impact. Given the capital- and energy-intensive nature of the shipbuilding industry, the implementation of suitable technologies can also improve the overall operational efficiency while meeting shipowners' sustainability standards and enhancing competitiveness. We selected a typical shipbuilding company in South China and categorized the 11 key low-carbon technologies into four categories based on their principles and application scenarios, i.e., equipment improvement, process upgrading, intelligent upgrading, and fuel alternative. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was employed in this study to simulate the energy consumption structure of this shipbuilding enterprise and explore pathways to reach carbon emissions peak under six low-carbon technology scenarios. In addition, the impact of dynamically changing grid emission factors on long-term carbon emission reduction is taken into consideration. The results show that a sustained reduction in grid emission factors will have a positive impact on carbon emission reduction. The shipyard's planned requirements to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and reduce its carbon intensity by 18% from 2020 are only achievable under the application of all low-carbon technologies. The shipyard will achieve carbon peak in 2026, with a maximum emission reduction potential of 13.2 thousand tons. The primary contributors are equipment improvement and process upgrading technologies, with reductions of 6.73 and 3.11 thousand tons, respectively. Therefore, from a technical point of view, these can be prioritized for development, although some of the equipment has a high upfront investment. Notably, the technology diffusion is rapid, with most technologies projected to reach penetration saturation by 2025, leading to a payback period of 3–4 years thereafter.

Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China's 1.5 °C Climate Target.

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)-Fe-Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world's largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China's Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2-3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%-68% of China's cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China's growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Thus, our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.

Strategic behavior modeling and energy management for electric-thermal-carbon-natural gas integrated energy system considering ancillary service

Carbon capture system (CCS) and power to gas (P2G), as key low-carbon technologies, have obtained the widespread attention. Thus, it is necessary to explore the operation pattern and benefits of CCS and P2G. This paper investigates their roles in the electric-thermal-carbon-natural gas integrated energy system (IES) and focuses on the multi-market participation and multi-energy management. IES participates in the electricity, carbon trading, and natural gas markets. In the electricity market, IES can provide two types of ancillary services: deep peak regulation and frequency regulation services. Then, owing to the small scale of the ancillary service market, the strategic behaviors of IES are discussed. A bi-level model is established to deal with the complex couplings in the peak regulation market. IES's strategic behavior in the frequency regulation market is depicted by the price quota curve. Next, a solution method based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to deal with the nonconvexity of the lower-level model. Finally, case studies show that the strategic behavior modeling in this paper can increase the profits of the deep peak regulation and the frequency regulation services. When IES is equipped with CCS and P2G, the operation cost decreases by 16.6%.

Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO2 emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios.

The prevalence of global unilateralism and the shock of COVID-19 brought considerable uncertainty to China's economic development. Consequently, policy selection related to the economy, industry, and technology is expected to significantly impact China's national economic potential and carbon emission mitigation. This study used a bottom-up energy model to assess the future energy consumption and CO2 emission trend before 2035 under three scenarios: a high-investment scenario (HIS), a medium-growth scenario (MGS), and an innovation-driven scenario (IDS). These were also used to predict the energy consumption and CO2 emission trend for the final sectors and calculate each sector's mitigation contribution. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, under HIS, China would achieve its carbon peak in 2030, with 12.0 Gt CO2. Moderately lowering the economic growth rate to support the low-carbon transition of the economy by boosting the development of the low-carbon industry and speeding up the employment of key low-carbon technologies to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure in the final sectors, the MGS and the IDS would achieve carbon peak approximately in 2025, with a peak of 10.7 Gt CO2 for the MGS and 10.0 Gt CO2 for the IDS. Several policy recommendations were proposed to meet China's nationally determined contribution targets: instigating more active development goals for each sector to implement the "1+N" policy system, taking measures to accelerate the R&D, boosting the innovation and application of key low-carbon technologies, strengthening economic incentives, forming an endogenous driving force for market-oriented emission reduction, and assessing the climate impacts of new infrastructure projects.

Role of technology learning in the decarbonization of the iron and steel sector: An energy system approach using a global-scale optimization model

The iron and steel sector, characterized by fossil fuel-driven processes is one of the most difficult to decarbonize and a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Various new technologies promise to change this, but their development is highly uncertain. This paper aims to analyze the prospects of key low-carbon technologies in the sector, focusing on the impact of technology learning, in the light of the uncertainty related to the learning rate. An optimization energy system model was used with an iterative learning formulation, adopting different learning assumptions. The results show that learning may have only a minor impact in the short and medium term, reducing global carbon emissions of the sector by 3% (at most) in 2050, compared to a non-learning scenario. In the long term, high learning potentials for novel processes are important, leading to a market share of up to the 80% by the end of the century. The learning potential for Carbon Capture and Storage processes, however, plays no role in the simulations. Early investments and research and development can help unlock the full potential of the technologies, while more detailed studies should be performed to better understand the retrofitting impact in the shorter term.

Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

ABSTRACTCurrent country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.Key policy insightsDelaying the additional action needed to achieve the 2°C target until 2030 is shown to require twice the rate of emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050.Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy, even without including climate change damages.Increased ratcheting of the NDC commitments should therefore be undertaken sooner rather than later, starting in conjunction with the 2023 Global Stocktake.Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%).A 2°C future with technological advancements is clearly possible for a similar cost as a 3.3°C world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.

Enhancing low-carbon economic growth by renewable energy uptake in countries with per capita gross domestic product between 10 and 20 kUSD

The study investigates how countries with per capita GDP between 10 and 20 kUSD (further referred to as middle-income countries) should shape domestic economies to enhance low-carbon economic growth and how low-carbon transition can be eventually turned to opportunity. The research starts from comparing and analysing middle-income economies, especially their CO2 emissions indicators. Also relationships between CO2 emissions and income for 138 countries obtained by applying regression analysis are constructed and evaluated. Outcomes from these analyses are configured in the form of climate policy. The proposed climate policy involves a set of key low-carbon technologies and affordable assets fitting the needs of middle-income countries. Besides, the climate policy aims to create the enabling business environment relying on economic, societal, regulatory and political enablers. The resulting economic system facilitates clean renewable energy uptake and triggers sustainable economic development finally potentially leading to low-carbon economic growth. The study emphasises that by making effective technologies and assets choices and reducing system costs, middle-income countries might be able to deliver affordable energy, thus driving industrialisation and finally enhancing economic growth. The proposed economic instruments can ease investments in capital intensive renewable energy infrastructures primarily by increasing capital availability, managing risks and reducing interest rates which are all typically unfavourable in middle-income countries.

Is the optimal decarbonization pathway influenced by indirect emissions? Incorporating indirect life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions into a European TIMES model

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) such as MARKAL/TIMES are used to support energy policy analysis worldwide. ESOMs cover the full life-cycle of fuels from extraction to end-use, including the associated direct emissions. Nevertheless, the life-cycle emissions of energy equipment and infrastructure are not modelled explicitly. This prevents analysis of questions relating to the relative importance of emissions associated with the build-up of infrastructure and other equipment required for decarbonization.We have soft-linked an environmentally-extended input-output (EEIO) model to a European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL) with the aim of addressing the following questions:-In what ways does the inclusion of indirect emissions change the optimal technology pathway for decarbonizing the European energy system?-How much does the present value of key low-carbon technologies change when indirect emissions are accounted for in a decarbonization scenario for Europe?We show that, although indirect emissions are a relatively small portion of overall power sector emissions (<10% in 2050), including them in the model leads to changes in the optimal power sector portfolio. Renewable energy technologies become relatively less attractive once indirect emissions are included within the optimization framework, and we quantify this effect, showing that it is not large. Changes to the relative attractiveness of specific renewable energy technologies are more pronounced than the reduction in attractiveness of renewable energy as a whole: in our main scenarios wind energy saw increased relative deployment in 2050 when indirect emissions are accounted for, since it displaced other technologies with higher life-cycle emissions (notably solar PV). Optimal cumulative installed capacity of PV in the EU 2050 is at least 7% lower when indirect emissions are included. We conclude that policy advice derived from ESOMs that focuses on the roles of specific technologies should ensure that it is robust to the possible effects of indirect emissions.

Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis

The scenarios generated by energy systems models provide a picture of the range of possible pathways to a low-carbon future. However, in order to be truly useful, these scenarios should not only be possible but also plausible. In this paper, we have used lessons from historical energy transitions to create a set of diagnostic tests to assess the feasibility of an example 2 °C scenario (generated using the least cost optimization model, TIAM-Grantham). The key assessment criteria included the rate of deployment of low carbon technologies and the rate of transition between primary energy resources. The rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies were found to exceed the maximum historically observed rate of deployment of 20% per annum. When constraints were added to limit the scenario to within historically observed rates of change, the model no longer solved for 2 °C. Under these constraints, the lowest median 2100 temperature change for which a solution was found was about 2.1 °C and at more than double the cumulative cost of the unconstrained scenario. The analysis in this paper highlights the considerable challenge of meeting 2 °C, requiring rates of energy supply technology deployment and rates of declines in fossil fuels which are unprecedented.

Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

Sensitivity to energy technology costs: A multi-model comparison analysis

In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to produce negative emissions.

International low carbon technology transfer: Do intellectual property regimes matter?

Transfer of low carbon technologies to developing countries has been recognized as important in global efforts to limit climate change. Yet the mechanics of international technology transfer, especially around intellectual property rights, have remained a controversial issue in international negotiations. Using a new dataset on international partnerships in China and India in three key low carbon technologies—solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and coal gasification/integrated gasification combined cycle—and complementary expert interviews we study the dynamics of the transfer of intellectual property and the underlying drivers that guide the development of business strategies and partnerships in the context of transitioning intellectual property regimes in emerging markets. We find that weak intellectual property regimes are indeed a hindrance to the diffusion of certain classes of low carbon technologies: (i) for cutting-edge technologies, (ii) for fully-embodied (explicitly codified) technologies, and (iii) for small firms. However, we also find that intellectual property issues do not represent a barrier to the diffusion of the relatively mature and low to medium cost low carbon technologies that are materially (at scale) most important for carbon dioxide emissions reduction in the short to medium term. Competitive technology supply, shifting market dynamics, and increasingly vigorous domestic innovation coupled with mechanisms and opportunities to structure credible intellectual property deals allow for the diffusion of key low carbon technologies to occur within the context of existing business, political, and institutional structures.

Strategic Drivers of International Low-Carbon Technology Transfer

Transfer of low-carbon technologies (LCTs) to developing countries has been recognized as important in global efforts to limit climate change. Yet the mechanics of international technology transfer, especially around intellectual property (IP) rights, have remained a controversial issue in international negotiations. Using a new dataset on international partnerships in China and India in three key LCTs — solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and coal gasification/IGCC — and complementary expert interviews we study the dynamics of the transfer of IP and the underlying drivers that guide the development of business strategies and partnerships in the context of transitioning IP regimes in emerging markets. We find that weak IP regimes are indeed a hindrance to the diffusion of certain classes of LCTs: (i) for cutting-edge technologies, (ii) for fully-embodied (explicitly codified) technologies, and (iii) for LCTs from small firms. However, we also find that IP issues do not represent a barrier to the diffusion of the relatively mature and low to medium cost LCTs that are materially (at scale) most important for CO2 emissions reduction in the short to medium term. Competitive technology supply, shifting market dynamics, and increasingly vigorous domestic innovation (in emerging markets) coupled with mechanisms and opportunities to structure credible IP deals allow for the diffusion of key LCTs to occur within the context of existing business, political, and institutional structures.

Comparison of Domestic and Foreign Automobile Low-Carbon Technologies

This paper describes current auto industry's advanced low-carbon technologies at home and abroad, including engine emission reduction technologies, efficient transmission and drive technologies, alternative energy technologies and electric energy-saving technologies. By comparing these technologies, we can discovery key low-carbon technologies of automobile needed to focus on. China's automotive technological accumulation is much less than advanced countries. Not only free technical competition between the domestic auto companies is demanded, joint development is also needed. Automobile enterprises should cooperate in innovation to improve the country's overall innovation in the automotive industry level.

Low Carbon Technology Development Roadmap for China

It is essential that China follows a low carbon pathway, in which technology plays a key role in the future economy and social development. Based on the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China, this paper analyzes a technology development roadmap for China to achieve a low carbon scenario. The results show that there are plenty of potential and opportunities for China to move towards a low carbon society when given enhanced and accelerated applications and expansions of key low carbon technologies. Strong policy and measure supports from all sectors in China are needed to achieve this goal. CitationLiu, Q., K. Jiang, and X. Hu, 2011: Low carbon technology development roadmap for China. Adv. Clim. Change Res.,2(2), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00067.

Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies – Implication for UK decarbonisation targets

The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented.