Keeling Curve Research Articles

Assessment of Different Frameworks for Addressing Climate Change Impact on Crop Production and Water Requirement

Various methodologies are used to estimate the impact of changing climatic factors, such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, on crop production and water demand. In this study, the changes in rice yield, water demand, and crop phenology were estimated with varying CO2 concentration and an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs), using a decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT), a crop growth model. The measured CO2 concentration of 400 ppm from the Keeling curve, was used as the default CO2 concentration to estimate yield, water demand, and phenology. These outputs, obtained with the default concentration, were compared with the results from climate change scenarios’ concentrations. Further, the outputs corresponding to the ensembled GCMs’ climate data were obtained, and the results were compared with the ensembled crop model outputs simulated with each GCM. The yield was found to increase with the increase in CO2 concentration up to a certain threshold, whereas water demand and phenology were observed to decrease with the increase in CO2 concentration. The two approaches of the ensemble technique to obtain final outputs from DSSAT results did not show a large difference in the predictions.

We Need a "Keeling Curve" Approach for Contaminants of Emerging Concern.

We Need a "Keeling Curve" Approach for Contaminants of Emerging Concern.

The urgent need for action

I first learned about the greenhouse gas effect in the 1970s as an undergraduate student. In graduate school in the 1980s, I learned more about the physics involved and began monitoring the status of the Keeling Curve with increasing concern. While the annual cycle that helps visualize the “breathing” of the global vegetation inspired me, the relentless upward trend in the curve alarmed me. Global climate change has been a motivator of my research ever since.

World Atmospheric CO2, Its 14C Specific Activity, Non-fossil Component, Anthropogenic Fossil Component, and Emissions (1750-2018).

After 1750 and the onset of the industrial revolution, the anthropogenic fossil component and the non-fossil component in the total atmospheric CO2 concentration, C(t), began to increase. Despite the lack of knowledge of these two components, claims that all or most of the increase in C(t) since 1800 has been due to the anthropogenic fossil component have continued since they began in 1960 with "Keeling Curve: Increase in CO2 from burning fossil fuel." Data and plots of annual anthropogenic fossil CO2 emissions and concentrations, C(t), published by the Energy Information Administration, are expanded in this paper. Additions include annual mean values in 1750 through 2018 of the 14C specific activity, concentrations of the two components, and their changes from values in 1750. The specific activity of 14C in the atmosphere gets reduced by a dilution effect when fossil CO2, which is devoid of 14C, enters the atmosphere. We have used the results of this effect to quantify the two components. All results covering the period from 1750 through 2018 are listed in a table and plotted in figures. These results negate claims that the increase in C(t) since 1800 has been dominated by the increase of the anthropogenic fossil component. We determined that in 2018, atmospheric anthropogenic fossil CO2 represented 23% of the total emissions since 1750 with the remaining 77% in the exchange reservoirs. Our results show that the percentage of the total CO2 due to the use of fossil fuels from 1750 to 2018 increased from 0% in 1750 to 12% in 2018, much too low to be the cause of global warming.

Temporal Variography for the Evaluation of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Monitoring

Since 1958, the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) has continuously monitored carbon dioxide variations using non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors, with the Keeling curve as an early indicator of the anthropogenic contribution to global atmospheric carbon dioxide. The increasing CO2 levels are alarming and have led to international agreements that promote cleaner industrial activities. However, any change in global behavior would not immediately cause detectable changes in the MLO data; the extent to which global and long-term term trends are conflated with local and short-term variations remains unclear. Hence the current paper verifies the performance of the sampling and measurement systems of MLO, using existing data published within the months of October and November 2020, which comply with the temporal continuity requirements of chronostatistics. It has been determined that the components of the MLO air including carbon dioxide are well mixed due to their particular location. Beyond this, the variographic analysis distinguishes between small (<5%) and large (>10%) variability contributions due to sampling, including graphical depictions of MLO data. Coupled with the precision of the method being better than 0.2 ppm, it has been determined that the sampling and measurement protocols are highly suitable to meet the objective of representing CO2 fluctuations over time. The variographic application also manages to quantify short-term variabilities resulting from the local processes of the region where the observatory is located. The results support the furthering of multiscaled temporal analysis of atmospheric CO2, and potentially the incorporation of CO2 variographic parameters into empirical and semi-empirical climate models.

Note for COP26 on Marine Cloud Brightening

Present policies of most Governments, with a few predictable exceptions, concentrate on the desperate need to get to zero carbon emissions as soon as possible. This is a necessary but not sufficient objective. There is strong evidence from the Keeling curve in figure 1, about the difficulty (Figure 1). Figure 1: But if we could reduce, carbon emissions to zero the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will be what we have now plus what we will be emitting between now and the zero-emission date minus the amount taken up by the oceans. This means that typhoons, floods, droughts, bushfires, sea-level rise, Arctic ice loss and damage to coral will all be worse, perhaps much worse than now. If you think that present conditions are not acceptable you have to conclude that zero is not low enough. As well as reducing emissions we will HAVE TO remove greenhouse gases, probably with help from phytoplankton, and also do direct cooling a soon as we can and hopefully ramp it down as emissions reduce [1].

Great Barrier Reef degradation, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2 levels collectively exhibit a stochastic process with memory

Quantifying ecological memory could be done at several levels from the rate of physiological changes in an ecosystem all the way down to responses at the genetic level. One way of unlocking the information encoded in a collective environmental memory is to examine the recorded time-series data generated by different components of an ecosystem. In this paper, we probe into the case of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) which is threatened by elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and ocean acidification attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Specifically, we investigate the interrelated dynamics between the degradation of the GBR, SST, and rising atmospheric CO2 levels, by considering three datasets: (a) the mean percentage hard coral cover of the GBR from the archives of the Australian Institute of Marine Science; (b) SST close to the GBR from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and (c) the Keeling curve for atmospheric CO2 levels measured by the Mauna Loa Observatory. We show that fluctuating observables in these datasets have the same memory behavior described by a non-Markovian stochastic process. All three datasets show a good match between empirical and analytical mean square deviation. An explicit analytical form for the corresponding probability density function is obtained which obeys a modified diffusion equation with a time dependent diffusion coefficient. This study provides a new perspective on the similarities of and interaction between the GBR’s declining hard coral cover, SST, and rising atmospheric CO2 levels by putting all three systems into one unified framework indexed by a memory parameter \(\mu \) and a characteristic frequency \(\nu \). The short-time dynamics of CO2 levels and SST fall in the superdiffusive regime, while the GBR exhibits hyperballistic fluctuation in percent coral cover with the highest values for \(\mu \) and \(\nu \).

Estimating the short-time rate of change in the trend of the Keeling curve

What exactly is the short-time rate of change (growth rate) in the trend of text {CO}_2 data such as the Keeling curve? The answer to this question will obviously depend very much on the duration in time over which the trend has been defined, as well as the smoothing technique that has been used. As an estimate of the short-time rate of change we propose to employ a very simple and robust definition of the trend based on a centered 1-year sliding data window for averaging and a corresponding centered 1-year difference (2-year data window) to estimate its rate of change. In this paper, we show that this simple strategy applied to weekly data of the Keeling curve (1974–2020) gives an estimated rate of change which is perfectly consistent with a more sophisticated regression analysis technique based on Taylor and Fourier series expansions. From a statistical analysis of the regression model and by using the Cramér–Rao lower bound, it is demonstrated that the relative error in the estimated rate of change is less than 5 %. As an illustration, the estimates are finally compared to some other publicly available data regarding anthropogenic text {CO}_2 emissions and natural phenomena such as the El Niño.

Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation

This article explores the use of logistic-shaped diffusion curves (S-Curves) to predict the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. The research question here is whether forecasts using logistic curves are stable, that is, do they predict consistently over time with different amounts of data? Using data from the Keeling Curve, we find that the best-fit maximum atmospheric CO2 predicted varies significantly by model year when estimating models limited to data available until that point in time. More recently estimated models are more consistent, all indicate that CO2 accumulation will continue in the absence of an external shock to the system.

Extracting Earth’s orbital period from atmospheric CO2 concentrations using the Fourier transform based on Matlab

The oscillating atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa, on the island of Hawaii, Hawaii, United States of America, are Fourier transformed in order to extract the period of oscillations. Also well-known as the Keeling curve, CO2 concentrations (in time series) at Mauna Loa oscillate in direct association with seasonal fluctuations in the northern hemisphere. Thus, the period of oscillations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is equal to Earth’s orbital period. In error by only 3.1%, we obtained 11.63 months. With the oscillating and increasing trend of the Keeling curve being directly associated with Earth’s geography, vegetation, photosynthesis, the seasons, global warming, and climate change, the current work is perceived as an enriching activity on the application of Fourier transformation—and on a non-Newtonian approach to determining an astronomical quantity.

Bridging From Monitoring to Solutions-Based Thinking: Lessons From CalCOFI for Understanding and Adapting to Marine Climate Change Impacts

Multidisciplinary, integrated ocean observing programs provide critical data for monitoring the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) samples along the US West Coast and is one of the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive time series, with hydrographic and biological data collected since 1949. The pairing of ecological and physical measurements across this long time series informs our understanding of how the California Current marine ecosystem responds to climate variability. By providing a baseline to monitor change, the CalCOFI time series serves as a Keeling Curve for the California Current. However, challenges remain in connecting the data collected from long-term monitoring programs with the needs of stakeholders concerned with climate change adaptation (i.e. resource managers, policy makers, and the public), including for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. We use the CalCOFI program as a case study to ask: how can long-term ocean observing programs inform ecosystem based management efforts and create data flows that meet the needs of stakeholders working on climate change adaptation? Addressing this question and identifying solutions requires working across sectors and recognizing stakeholder needs. Lessons learned from CalCOFI can inform other regional monitoring programs around the world, including those done at a smaller scale in developing countries.

A Time Series Correlation Analysis Using the Keeling Curve as an Alternative Evaluation Method for Carbon Emission Modeling

This study uses atmospheric CO2 concentration data (the Keeling Curve) as an alternative measurement of anthropogenic carbon emissions to test the relationship between environmental pressure and economic development. Using verified detrending procedures, no significant relationship is observed between global population growth and increases in atmospheric carbon concentration. Changes in world GDP, however, have a significant effect on CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. GDP per capita is also a strong indicator of the Keeling Curve. The use of the affluence level, GDP per capita, correlates to the environmental impact when the environmental pressure is altered to atmospheric CO2 concentration, even though population does not correlate with the Keeling Curve.

Management of the Cop21 Policies: What Is Lacking in the Cop21 Project

Abrupt climate change is a reformulation of climate change theory that must be taken seriously. Building upon the speedy melting of the Arctic, the emergence of massive methane emissions and constantly increasing Keeling curve, the time span for global warming has been considerably reduced. This calls for a strong policy response from global coordination efforts in order to avoid Hawking irreversibly time point. Thus far, the UN bodies have done investigations into and conferences onto climate change. Faced with abrupt climate change, rapid policy implementation and management is the priority.

Asia and Climate Change: How It Will Play Out From the Bosporus to Djakarta

Now that the measure of CO2 emissions has broken through 410 on the standard Keeling curve (Earth CO2 website), one may start drawing a scenario for climate change repercussions, here for the Asian continent. It pollutes most of all continents in terms of both greenhouse gases and many other pollutants. The threats to mankind comes in the form of sea level rise, fresh water shortage, less of potable water, shrinking of lakes and rivers, deoxygenation of oceans, less fish food and agriculture produce, energy shortages, omnipresent air conditioning, urban smog, water and sea pollution due to sewage and failures with landfills. Asia, hosting more than half of mankind, will suffer massively from global warming with millions of ecological refugees. The UN’s program, the COP21 by the UNFCCC, cannot stop Asia from reaching Hawking irreversibility, because it entails too weak global governance that is cheatable. The promise of complete decarbonisation is an illusion.

Measuring Earth's carbon cycle.

![Figure][1] The OCO-2 satellite can measure photosynthesis, as well as the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, and so will shed new light on the carbon cycle. PHOTO: BEAWIHARTA/REUTERS/NEWSCOM One of the crowning achievements of modern environmental science is the Keeling curve, the detailed time series of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) begun in 1958 that has enabled deep insights into the mechanisms of global climate change. These measurements were difficult to make for most of their 60-year history, involving the physical collection of air samples in flasks at a small number of sites scattered strategically around the globe and the subsequent analysis of their CO2 inventories in a handful of laboratories throughout the world. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission was designed to circumvent those limitations by providing a platform with which atmospheric CO2 can be measured spectrally from space over large geographic areas, thereby offering an unprecedented capability to study, in great detail, the processes that affect the concentration of the gas over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The satellite can also measure solar-induced fluorescence, a proxy for photosynthesis, which provides valuable information about the biological processes that affect atmospheric CO2. In this issue, a collection of Research Articles presents the initial results from OCO-2, covering the detection of CO2 emissions from specific point sources; measurements of CO2 variations associated with El Nino, on land and at sea; and solar-induced fluorescence measurements of photosynthesis for determining gross primary production by plants. With its impressive collection of observational capabilities, OCO-2 will enable measurements of atmospheric CO2 to be made with sufficient precision, resolution, and coverage to faithfully characterize its sources and sinks globally over the seasonal cycle, a long-standing goal in atmospheric and climate science. [1]: pending:yes

Slow reception and under-citedness in climate change research: A case study of Charles David Keeling, discoverer of the risk of global warming

The Keeling curve has become a chemical landmark, whereas the papers by Charles David Keeling about the underlying carbon dioxide measurements are not cited as often as can be expected against the backdrop of his final approval. In this bibliometric study, we analyze Keeling’s papers as a case study for under-citedness of climate change publications. Three possible reasons for the under-citedness of Keeling’s papers are discussed: (1) The discourse on global cooling at the starting time of Keeling’s measurement program, (2) the underestimation of what is often seen as “routine science”, and (3) the amount of implicit/informal citations at the expense of explicit/formal (reference-based) citations. Those reasons may have contributed more or less to the slow reception and the under-citedness of Keeling’s seminal works.

초등학생의 기후소양 함양을 위한 프로그램 개발 및 효과 : 탐구과정이 강조된 킬링 곡선(Keeling Curve) 활동을 중심으로

초등학생의 기후소양 함양을 위한 프로그램 개발 및 효과 : 탐구과정이 강조된 킬링 곡선(Keeling Curve) 활동을 중심으로

Navigating a new geological era with papal guidance and Keeling curve

Navigating a new geological era with papal guidance and Keeling curve

Radiometric Comparison of 1.6-μm CO2 Absorption Band of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) TANSO-FTS with Suomi-NPP VIIRS SWIR Band

AbstractAn atmospheric CO2 increase has become a progressively important global concern in recent past decades. Since the 1950s, the Keeling curve has documented the atmospheric CO2 increase as well as seasonal variations, which also intrigued scientists to develop new methods for global CO2 measurements from satellites. One of the dedicated satellite missions is the CO2 measurement in the 1.6-μm shortwave infrared spectra by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal and Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observations–Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) instrument. While this spectral region has unique advantages in detecting lower-trophosphere CO2, there are many challenges because it relies on accurate measurements of reflected solar radiance from Earth’s surface. Therefore, the calibration of the TANSO-FTS CO2 has a direct impact on the CO2 retrievals and its long-term trends. Coincidently, the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) 1.6-μm band spectrally overlaps with the TANSO-FTS CO2 band, and both satellites are in orbit with periodical simultaneous nadir overpass measurements. This study performs an intercomparison of VIIRS and the TANSO-FTS CO2 band in an effort to evaluate and improve the radiometric consistency. Understanding the differences provides feedback on how well the GOSAT TANSO-FTS is performing over time, which is critical to ensure a well-calibrated, stable, and bias-free CO2 product.

This Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling Curve

Previous articleNext article No AccessGalleryThis Is Nature; This Is Un-Nature: Reading the Keeling CurveJoshua P. HoweJoshua P. Howe Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Volume 20, Number 2April 2015 Published for the American Society for Environmental History and the Forest History Society Views: 68Total views on this site Citations: 7Citations are reported from Crossref Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1093/envhis/emv005 Views: 68Total views on this site Citations: 7Citations are reported from Crossref HistoryPublished online March 18, 2015 © 2015 The Author. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Michael Fuhr, Sonja Geilert, Mark Schmidt, Volker Liebetrau, Christoph Vogt, Brendan Ledwig, Klaus Wallmann Kinetics of Olivine Weathering in Seawater: An Experimental Study, Frontiers in Climate 4 (Mar 2022).https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.831587Markes E. Johnson Geological Oceanography of the Pliocene Warm Period: A Review with Predictions on the Future of Global Warming, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no.1111 (Nov 2021): 1210.https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111210Ulrike Hahn, Pauwke Berkers Visualizing climate change: an exploratory study of the effectiveness of artistic information visualizations, World Art 11, no.11 (Jun 2020): 95–119.https://doi.org/10.1080/21500894.2020.1769718Giuseppe Feola, Hilary Geoghegan, Alex Arnall Climate and Culture, 94 (Sep 2019).https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108505284Esteban Landaeta, Zachary D. Schultz, Ana Burgos, Ricardo Schrebler, Mauricio Isaacs Enhanced photostability of cuprous oxide by lignin films on glassy carbon electrodes in the transformation of carbon dioxide, Green Chemistry 20, no.1010 (Jan 2018): 2356–2364.https://doi.org/10.1039/C8GC00365CSebastian Vincent Grevsmühl A visual history of the ozone hole: a journey to the heart of science, technology and the global environment, History and Technology 33, no.33 (Feb 2018): 333–344.https://doi.org/10.1080/07341512.2017.1413209David Kneas Chest Hair and Climate Change: Harrison Ford and the Making of “Lost There, Felt Here”, Environmental History 22, no.33 (Sep 2021): 516–526.https://doi.org/10.1093/envhis/emx057