Karamoja Region Research Articles

Emerging threat of artemisinin partial resistance markers (pfk13 mutations) in Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in multiple geographical locations in high transmission regions of Uganda

BackgroundArtemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently recommended for treatment of uncomplicated malaria. However, the emergence and spread of partial artemisinin resistance threatens their effectiveness for malaria treatment in sub-Saharan Africa where the burden of malaria is highest. Early detection and reporting of validated molecular markers (pfk13 mutations) in Plasmodium falciparum is useful for tracking the emergence and spread of partial artemisinin resistance to inform containment efforts.MethodsGenomic surveillance was conducted at 50 surveillance sites across four regions of Uganda in Karamoja, Lango, Acholi and West Nile from June 2021 to August 2023. Symptomatic malaria suspected patients were recruited and screened for presence of parasites. In addition, dried blood spots (DBS) were collected for parasite genomic analysis with PCR and sequencing. Out of 563 available dried blood spots (DBS), a random subset of 240 P. falciparum mono-infections, confirmed by a multiplex PCR were selected and used for detecting the pfk13 mutations by Sanger sequencing using Big Dye Terminator method. Regional variations in the proportions of pfk13 mutations were assessed using the chi square or Fisher’s exact tests while Kruskal–Wallis test was used to compare absolute parasite DNA levels between wild type and mutant parasites.ResultsOverall, 238/240 samples (99.2%) contained sufficient DNA and were successfully sequenced. Three mutations were identified within the sequenced samples; pfk13 C469Y in 32/238 (13.5%) samples, pfk13 A675V in 14/238 (5.9%) and pfk13 S522C in (1/238 (0.42%) samples across the four surveyed regions. The prevalence of pfk13 C469Y mutation was significantly higher in Karamoja region (23.3%) compared to other regions, P = 0.007. The majority of parasite isolates circulating in West Nile are of wild type (98.3), P = 0.002. Relative parasite DNA quantity did not differ in samples carrying the wild type, C469Y and A675V alleles (Kruskal–Wallis test, P = 0.6373).ConclusionDetection of validated molecular markers of artemisinin partial resistance in multiple geographical locations in this setting provides additional evidence of emerging threat of artemisinin partial resistance in Uganda. In view of these findings, periodic genomic surveillance is recommended to detect and monitor levels of pfk13 mutations in other regions in parallel with TES to assess potential implication on delayed parasite clearance and associated treatment failure in this setting. Future studies should consider identification of potential drivers of artemisinin partial resistance in the different malaria transmission settings in Uganda.

Cattle, conflict, and climate variability: explaining pastoralist conflict intensity in the Karamoja region of Uganda

Conflicts between pastoralist groups in Africa are rampant and cause numerous deaths each year, but their intensity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations. Under what conditions do some pastoralist conflicts turn more violent than others? Previous research has shown that climate variability may be a relevant explanatory factor under certain conditions, yet little is known about how specific combinations of conditions jointly affect pastoralist conflict intensity. Moreover, many studies have investigated the link between resource scarcity and conflict, but few have examined how asymmetrical distribution of resources between groups affects levels of violence. This article contributes to filling these gaps through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of pastoralist conflicts in Karamoja, Uganda—a region characterized by cattle husbandry, communal conflict, and a highly variable climate. Five conditions that are related either to incentives for taking to violence or to opportunity structures are examined and three pathways to high-intensity conflict are identified. The results show that an asymmetrical distribution of resources between pastoralist groups during a drought incentivizes conflict, particularly in remote areas with nearby armed conflicts. The article highlights some implications for future research and policy. First, it shows that this type of conflict cannot be reduced to simple “resource scarcity conflicts” since climate variability only has an effect in combination with other conditions. Second, it emphasizes the need for policy approaches that consider both environmental variability and political contexts in addressing pastoralist violence.

Identification and distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus in selected high-cattle density districts in Uganda: signaling future demand for novel tick control approaches

BackgroundRhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Canestrini, 1888), the Asian blue tick, is a highly invasive and adaptable ectoparasite. This tick species has successfully established itself in most regions of the world, with movement of cattle being a major driver for its spread. In the recent past, R. microplus ticks have been reported in three districts of Uganda. Information on its spread and distribution are vital in deepening our understanding of the ecological scenarios that lead to tick persistence and in the formulation of control strategies. This is especially important in the cattle-dense districts.MethodsWe randomly collected tick specimens from 1,461cattle spread across seven cattle dense districts located in the Central, Karamoja and West Nile regions of Uganda from January to September 2020. The ticks were identified using standard morpho-taxonomic keys and the R. microplus tick species identities were confirmed by sequencing of the ITS2 region, 12S rRNA and 16S rRNA genes and phylogenetic analyses.ResultsAdult ticks (n = 13,019) were collected from 1,461 cattle. Seventeen tick species were identified based on morpho-taxonomic keys and the majority (47.4%; n=6184) of these were R. appendiculatus. In total, 257 R. microplus ticks were found infesting cattle in 18 study sites in the districts of Amudat, Kaabong, Napak (Karamoja region) and Arua (West Nile region). The identity of R. microplus was confirmed using molecular technics. No R. microplus tick was recorded in the districts of Lyantonde and Nakaseke (Central region). Arua district accounted for 82.1% (n=211) of the R. microplus ticks recorded followed by Napak district at 16.3% (n=42), while Amudat and Kaabong districts accounted for 1.5% (n=4).Rhipicephalus microplus and R. decoloratus co-existed in 6 of the 13 study sites in Arua district, while in another 6 study sites, no R. decoloratus was recorded. In the Karamoja region districts R. decoloratus co-existed with R.microplus. Of the total 618 ticks belonging to four species of the subgenus Boophilus recorded in this study, R. decoloratus accounted for 50.04% (n=334), followed by R. microplus at 41.58% (n=257), R. geigyi at 2.75% (n=17) and R. annulatus at 1.61% (n=10). In the districts of Amudat, Kaabong and Napak, R. decoloratus was more dominant (76.1%; n=179) of the three Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) tick species recorded, followed by R. microplus (19.5%; n=46) and R. geigyi (4.2%; n=10). Contrariwise, R. microplus was more dominant (84%; n=211) in Arua district followed by R. decoloratus (10.7%; n=27), R. annulatus (3.9%; n=10) and R. geigyi (1.1%; n=3). Phylogenetic analyses of the ITS2 region, 12S rRNA and 16S rRNA genes revealed subgrouping of the obtained sequences with the previously published R. microplus sequences from other parts of the world.ConclusionRhipicephalus microplus ticks were found infesting cattle in four districts of Uganda. The inability to find R. decoloratus, an indigenous tick, from six sites in the district of Arua is suggestive of its replacement by R. microplus. Rhipicephalus microplus negatively affects livestock production, and therefore, there is a need to determine its distribution and to deepen the understanding of the ecological factors that lead to its spread and persistence in an area.

Seroprevalence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in cattle from Karamoja region, North-eastern Uganda

BackgroundContagious bovine pleuropneumonia [CBPP] is a transboundary animal disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides [Mmm]. CBPP causes severe economic losses to livestock producers in sub-Saharan Africa mainly due to high mortality, morbidity, reduction in productivity as well as livestock trade restrictions. This study aimed at determining seroprevalence of Mmm in cattle from Karamoja region, north-eastern Uganda; data that are required to design and implement risk based CBPP control program.MethodsWe randomly collected blood samples from 2,300 cattle spread across Karamoja region. Serum was extracted and screened for antibodies against Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides [Mmm] using the competitive enzyme linked immunosorbent assay [cELISA].ResultsA quarter [25.4%; 95% CI: 23.7–27.3] of the screened cattle [n = 2,300] were sero-positive for Mmm. Amudat and Kaabong districts recorded the lowest [12.3%] and highest [30.7%] Mmm seroprevalence respectively. Increasing age, overnight stay in cattle kraals and location [certain districts, villages, herds and sub counties] of the cattle herds, the factors that promote animal commingling, were the most significant risk factors of seroconversion with Mmm.ConclusionResults from this study indicated a higher seroprevalence of Mmm in Karamoja region cattle herds. This could be due to the increased frequency of CBPP outbreaks in recent years. To be effective, CBPP vaccination programs should target high risk herds along the international borders and other hotspot areas [e.g., parishes or sub counties] where cattle commingling is high.

Distribution and prevalence of ixodid tick species (Acari: Ixodidae) infesting cattle in Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda

BackgroundTicks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are a significant threat to livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa. Transhumance pastoralism practiced in Karamoja region and other factors like cattle trade, communal grazing and the presence of wildlife predispose cattle to TTBDs. Tick species abundance and distribution data can be used as a tool for early disease diagnosis and inform tick control strategies. However, these data for north-eastern Uganda are currently limited; previous surveys were relatively localized and targeted fewer cattle kraals and numbers.MethodsWe randomly collected tick specimens from 1,534 cattle spread across Karamoja region in both the peak month of the rainy (May 2020) and the dry (February2021) seasons. The ticks were identified using morpho-taxonomic keys and the tick species identities confirmed by the 16 S rRNA gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis.ResultsA collection of 18,637 ticks was examined and fifteen tick species from three genera (ten Rhipicephalus; three Amblyomma; two Hyalomma species) were identified. Rhipicephalus appendiculatus was the most dominant (37.9%) tick species, followed by Amblyomma variegatum (32.3%); A. lepidum (17.3%); R. evertsi evertsi (7.8%); and R. decoloratus (1.4%). Eight of these tick species were ubiquitous in the study districts while six were found in isolated areas. The peak month of the dry season collection was associated with a higher proportion of tick-infested cattle (91%) compared to the peak month of the rainy season (89.8%); a difference that was not found statistically significant (χ2 = 0.5077, n = 1385, p = 0.476). The overall cattle infestation rate was mainly dominated by five tick species namely: A. variegatum (55%), R. appendiculatus (53%), A. lepidum (41%), R. evertsi (22%), and R. decoloratus (8%). The proportion of tick-infested cattle was highest in Napak District (95.4%) and lowest in Amudat District (80.9%) during the peak month of the rainy season. Napak and Amudat Districts also had the highest and lowest proportion of tick-infested cattle (94.8% and 80.7% respectively) during the peak month of the dry season. Rhipicephalus microplus was confirmed in Amudat, Kaabong and Napak districts.ConclusionThis study demonstrates high tick infestation rates in cattle by a battery of tick species in Karamoja region. We identified both R. microplus and R. decoloratus which indicates that R. microplus has recently been introduced in this region. This calls for effective tick control responses to prevent further spread of this invasive cattle tick specie.

Treatment success rate and associated factors among drug susceptible tuberculosis individuals in St. Kizito Hospital, Matany, Napak district, Karamoja region. A retrospective study.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among infectious agents globally. An estimated 10 million people are newly diagnosed and 1.5 million die of the disease annually. Uganda is among the 30 high TB-burdenedd countries, with Karamoja having a significant contribution of the disease incidence in the country. Control of the disease in Karamoja is complex because a majority of the at-risk population remain mobile; partly because of the nomadic lifestyle. This study, therefore, aimed at describing the factors associated with drug-susceptible TB treatment success rate (TSR) in the Karamoja region. This was a retrospective study on case notes of all individuals diagnosed with and treated for drug-susceptible TB at St. Kizito Hospital Matany, Napak district, Karamoja from 1st Jan 2020 to 31st December 2021. Data were abstracted using a customised data abstraction tool. Data analyses were done using Stata statistical software, version 15.0. Chi-square test was conducted to compare treatment success rates between years 2020 and 2021, while Modified Poisson regression analysis was performed at multivariable level to determine the factors associated with treatment success. We studied records of 1234 participants whose median age was 31 (IQR: 13-49) years. Children below 15 years of age accounted for 26.2% (n = 323). The overall treatment success rate for the study period was 79.3%(95%CI; 77.0%-81.5%), with a statistically significant variation in 2020 and 2021, 75.4% (422/560) vs 82.4% (557/674) respectively, (P = 0.002). The commonest reported treatment outcome was treatment completion at 52%(n = 647) and death was at 10.4% (n = 129). Older age, undernutrition (Red MUAC), and HIV-positive status were significantly associated with lower treatment success: aPR = 0.87(95%CI; 0.80-0.94), aPR = 0.91 (95%CI; 0.85-0.98) and aPR = 0.88 (95%CI; 0.78-0.98); respectively. Patients who were enrolled in 2021 had a high prevalence of treatment success compared to those enrolled in 2020, aPR = 1.09 (95%CI; 1.03-1.16). TB TSR in Matany Hospital was suboptimal. Older age, poor nutrition, and being HIV-positive were negative predictors of treatment success. We propose integrating nutrition and HIV care into TB programming to improve treatment success.

Extending the Oaxaca-Blinder Model to Decompose the Causation of Starvation among Households in Karamoja Region

Extending the Oaxaca-Blinder Model to Decompose the Causation of Starvation among Households in Karamoja Region

Prevalence of cystic echinococcosis among livestock in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Uganda.

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) remains a significant challenge in Uganda with precise status largely undocumented in most communities. To determine CE prevalence, post-mortem examination was done on 14 937 livestock (5873 goats, 1377 sheep, 3726 zebu cattle and 3054 Ankole cattle) slaughtered in abattoirs in the districts of Moroto in Karamoja region, Kumi in Teso region and Nakasongola and Luwero in Buganda region. The overall CE prevalence was 21.9% in sheep, 15.2% in zebu cattle, 5.5% in goats and 2.1% in Ankole cattle. Moroto district had a higher prevalence of CE than other districts with 31.3% in zebu cattle, sheep 28%, goats 29.1% and (0%) in Ankole cattle. On organ locations, the lungs were the most affected in all livestock in all the study areas. Considering cyst fertility, 33.9, 1.7 and 6.4% of Ankole cattle, sheep and zebu cattle respectively had fertile cysts in the liver while 4.5% of goats and 4% Ankole cattle had fertile cysts in the lungs. In conclusion, CE is widespread and occurs among cattle, sheep and goats in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Uganda. Therefore, there is an urgent need to create awareness among the communities on role of livestock in CE epidemiology and transmission.

Spatio-temporal analysis of sheep and goat pox outbreaks in Uganda during 2011–2022

BackgroundSheep and goat pox (SGP) caused by sheep poxvirus (SPV) and goat poxvirus (GPV) respectively; are transboundary and World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)-notifiable viral diseases. There is barely any coherent information about the distribution and prevalence of SGP for Uganda. We therefore conducted this study to describe the temporal and spatial distribution of SGP suspected outbreaks in Uganda for the period 2011–2020 as well as serologically confirm presence of SGP antibodies in suspected SGP outbreaks reported in 2021–2022.ResultsThirty-seven [37] SGP outbreaks were reported across the country during the study period. North-eastern region [that comprises of Karamoja region] had the highest number of outbreaks [n = 17, 45%]; followed by Central [n = 9, 2.4%], Northern [n = 8, 2.2%] and Western region [n = 3, 0.08%]. Reports from district veterinary personnel indicate that the prevalence of; and mortality rate and case fatality rate associated with SGP were 0.06%, 0.02% and 32% respectively. There was a steady increase in the number of reported SGP outbreaks [x̄ = 4] over the study period. Seropositivity of SGPV antibodies in outbreak sheep and goats that were investigated during the study period [2021–2022] was [n = 41, 27%, 95 CI;]ConclusionOur analyses of SGPV passive and active reports indicate that SGP is present in Uganda with a decade long average of four outbreaks per annum. During this period, about a third of all SGPV-clinically infected animals died. SPG is therefore a major constraint to small ruminant health and productivity in Uganda. Introduction of animals from infected herds and breach in farm biosecurity were the most important predictors of SGP outbreaks. In addition to the already existing SGP commercial vaccines, small ruminant screening for SGPV before introducing them to naïve herds and ensuring on farm biosecurity should be part of the SGP control tool pack for Ugandan small ruminant farmers.

Climate, flood, and attitudes toward violence: micro-level evidence from Karamoja, Uganda

Concerns about the security implications of climate change are increasing. The growing academic literature on the topic suggests that linkages between climate change and armed conflict are shaped by structural risk factors, but micro-level variation and mechanisms remain poorly understood and flood responses are hardly studied. In this paper, we strive to contribute to a better understanding of such micro-level patterns and investigate how flood exposure affects the support for violence in the Karamoja region of Uganda, which is characterized by many structural vulnerabilities to climate change and armed conflict. We use unique household-level survey panel data and investigate changes in survey responses following a destructive flood. Our study finds that flood exposure was associated with greater support for the use of violence. However, while we identify some adverse impacts of flood exposure on the perceived and actual socio-economic conditions of households and a decrease in perceptions of government support, these do not seem to mediate the estimated flood impact on support for violence against expectations. Our findings point to the limited explanatory power of natural hazards’ economic impacts alone for conflict risk. Further investigation of causal mechanisms between climate hazards and conflict remains an important priority for future research.

Using participatory epidemiology to investigate women’s knowledge on the seasonality and causes of acute malnutrition in Karamoja, Uganda

The Karamoja region of northeast Uganda had been characterized by high levels of acute malnutrition (AM) for decades, despite substantial aid investment in nutrition programmes. Participatory epidemiology (PE) was used to understand the seasonality of child AM from the perspective of women agro-pastoralists and understand their knowledge and prioritization of the causes of child AM. Women provided highly plausible descriptions and analysis of monthly variations in the occurrence of AM, livelihood factors related to the temporal variation in AM occurrence, the root causes of AM and relationships between these causes. Overall, AM was strongly attributed to declining livestock ownership and access to cow milk and normalized gender discrimination. Monthly calendars revealed important monthly patterns in AM, births and women’s workload that had not been previously reported. There was significant agreement (p < 0.01) between independent women’s groups (n = 16) for the monthly calendars and causal diagrams, indicating strong reproducibility of the methods. Triangulation indicated good validity of the monthly calendar method. The PE approach demonstrated that agro-pastoralist women with limited formal education could describe and analyse the seasonality of AM and related factors and identify and prioritize the causes of AM. Indigenous knowledge should be valued and respected, and nutrition programmes should shift the emphasis towards far more participatory and community-based approaches. The timing of conventional nutrition surveys in agro-pastoral settings should be based on an understanding of the seasonality of livelihoods.

Watershed management and climate change adaptation mechanisms used by people living in dryland areas of Lokere catchment in Karamoja, Uganda

Abstract The effects of climate change in Uganda are manifested by severe and sometimes extreme weather events such as droughts and landslides. An Integrated Watershed Management (IWM) plan was initiated in the Karamoja region, aimed at generating information that could be used to reduce climate vulnerabilities among the rural poor. The study aimed at determining the local community’s perception of the effects of climate change on their livelihoods; and, to examine the effectiveness of the Integrated Watershed Management practices (IWMPs) on agricultural production within the area. Three hundred and ninety-seven households were randomly chosen and included in the survey. Interviews with local government officials who held high posts were conducted. Direct observations were also used for data collection. Findings showed that droughts and increases in pests and diseases; were some of the impacts caused by climate change events. Despite the initiation of IWMPs, climate change events moderately increased food insecurity (γ = 0.556; P=0.000) and also moderately affected community assets like roads and valley dams (γ = 0.426; P=0.000). In addition, household income insecurity was moderately and positively related to climate change effects (γ = 0.556; P=0.000). A weak positive relationship was found between the application of IWMPs and agricultural production (γ = 0.273; P=0.000). The Uganda Government should emphasize and intensify the implementation of IWMPs among the farmers living in agricultural watersheds as a means of continuously improving agricultural production and building the farmers’ resilience to climate change events.

Use of collaborative learning approach for increased cure rate among children aged 6–59 months with severe wasting in Karamoja, Uganda

BackgroundAt 10%, Karamoja region has the highest rate of child wasting in Uganda. The region has 126 outpatient therapeutic care (OTC) sites for managing children with severe acute malnutrition.Local problemCure...

A hybrid effectiveness-implementation study protocol to assess the effectiveness and chemoprevention efficacy of implementing seasonal malaria chemoprevention in five districts in Karamoja region, Uganda

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine for children aged 3 to 59 months, living in areas where malaria transmission is highly seasonal. However, due to widespread prevalence of resistance markers, SMC has not been implemented at scale in East and Southern Africa. An initial study in Uganda showed that SMC with SPAQ was feasible, acceptable, and protective against malaria in eligible children in Karamoja region. Nonetheless, exploration of alternative regimens is warranted since parasite resistance threats persist. Objective: The study aims to test the effectiveness of SMC with DP or SPAQ (DP-SMC &amp; SPAQ-SMC), chemoprevention efficacy as well as the safety and tolerability of DP compared to that of SPAQ among 3-59 months old children in Karamoja region, an area of Uganda where malaria transmission is highly seasonal. Methods: A Type II hybrid effectiveness-implementation study design consisting of four components: 1) a cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) using passive surveillance to establish confirmed malaria cases in children using both SPAQ and DP; 2a) a prospective cohort study to determine the chemoprevention efficacy of SPAQ and DP (if SPAQ or DP clears sub-patent infection and provides 28 days of protection from new infection) and whether drug concentrations and/or resistance influence the ability to clear and prevent infection; 2b) a sub study examining pharmacokinetics of DP in children between 3 to &lt;6 months; 3) a resistance markers study in children 3–59 months in the research districts plus the standard intervention districts to measure changes in resistance marker prevalence over time and finally; 4) a process evaluation. Discussion: This study evaluates the effects of a clinical intervention on relevant outcomes whilst collecting information on implementation. Conclusion: This study will inform malaria policy in high-burden countries and contribute to progress in malaria control.

Driving factors behind Uganda’s rural pastoral communities’ social-economic status; a comparison between Karamoja Region and Ankole Region

This study aimed to analyze the social-economic status of Karamoja, Uganda’s largest pastoral region that has consistently stood out as the least developed region in Uganda. The region is naturally endowed with a variety of minerals such as marble, limestone, gold, etc. This has attracted (both local and international) artisanal and small-scale miners into the region whose contribution to the region’s development seem negligible. The Majority of the residents derive their livelihoods from livestock as a primary source. Three major rural development aspects i.e., social, ecological, and economic dimensions were assessed and compared to the Ankole region, one of Uganda’s rural pastoral regions that have over time registered progress in livestock production and regional development. Based on this comparison, similarities and differences can be identified and used to build the foundation for the development of a SWOT analysis that will focus on the Strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that exist in this rural pastoral region of Karamoja. This study creates a cornerstone for developing sustainable rural development strategies based on a focused analysis of sociological factors that are fundamental in unmasking the ground reality in the region.

“A Reason Not to Belong”: Political Decentralization, Intercommunal Relations, and Changing Identities in Northeastern Uganda

AbstractAbim district, located in Uganda’s Karamoja region, is one of the scores of new administrative units created under the country’s decentralization policy. The establishment of Abim district in 2006, following decades of conflict in northern Uganda, was accompanied by changes in ethnic identity within local communities of Ethur farmers. Based on oral history fieldwork in Abim, Meyerson documents these changes in sociopolitical identification among the Ethur. In doing so, he demonstrates how political decentralization has become a venue for the combination of international discourses of indigenous rights, national notions of ethnic citizenship, and grassroots histories of intercommunal relations.

Assessment of the impacts of climate change on livestock water sources and livestock production: Case study, Karamoja region of Uganda

AbstractThe study examined the impact of climate change on livestock water sources and livestock production using the Karamoja region of Uganda as a case study. The study's objectives were to determine the general public's perception of climate change, identify the major climatic factors affecting livestock productivity in Karamoja, and assess the extent to which climate change has affected water sources for animals and productivity of livestock in the study region. A cross‐sectional survey design, as well as a quantitative and qualitative data analysis, was used in the study. The total population of the study unit was 258, and the sample size was 222, which was chosen specifically through a purposive and random sampling technique. From the results and discussion of the study sample, while the general public was aware of and understands climate change, the study concluded that the likely causes of climate change were numerous, including deforestation, charcoal burning, natural events such as lake currents, carbon emissions, and land degradation. In Karamoja, climate change is causing erratic and uneven rainfall, drying of surface water bodies such as dams and rivers, high temperatures, deforestation, and outbreaks of livestock diseases. The major climatic factors identified that affect livestock water sources and productivity are higher temperatures, which have led to decreases in water levels and drying of seasonal surface water sources that livestock depend on, as well as flooding of some regions during heavy rains. The results from the regression model also showed that climate change has affected livestock water sources and productivity, with an 84.7% impact. The following adaptation measures have been proposed: diversification of livestock and crop varieties, agroforestry, awareness and sensitization campaigns, increased government and partner investment in water harvesting and agroforestry schemes, and improved capacity of all organizations and institutes involved.

Changes in Meteorological Dry Conditions across Water Management Zones in Uganda

This study analysed trends and variability in extreme precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) indices across Uganda. We made use of daily precipitation and temperature datasets from 1979 to 2013 obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) products of the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The PET was estimated using the Hargreaves method based on the minimum and maximum temperature. Analysis was focused on the level of Water Management Zones (WMZs). Examples of the extracted extreme climatic indices included the annual maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation intensity < 1 mm/day (CDD1) or < 5 mm/day (CDD5), annual sum of PET for days with PET rate > 5 mm/day (SPETD5), and spell of high evaporative demand (or annual maximum number of consecutive days with PET > 5 mm/day) (CDPET5). Attributes of the variability in meteorological dry conditions were investigated. Trend and variability were investigated using an approach based on the cumulative sum of difference (CSD) between exceedance and non-exceedance counts of data points. The magnitudes of the linear decrease or increase in the precipitation and PET indices were determined using Sen's method. To apply these methods, the CSD-based Sub (Trend) and Variability Analysis Tool (CSD-VAT) was used. The long-term mean of the extracted indices showed Kyoga and Victoria to be the driest and wettest WMZs, respectively. An increase in the number of dry days (indicating increasing severity of meteorological dry conditions) was confined to the Karamoja region or the eastern parts of the Upper Nile and Kyoga WMZs. However, the rest of the country generally experienced negative trends in the precipitation and PET indices. Extreme precipitation indices of Kyoga and the Upper Nile WMZs exhibited consecutive positive and negative sub-trends over the early 1980s and from 1985 to 2013, respectively. Victoria and Albert WMZs mainly exhibited negative sub-trends for both precipitation and PET indices especially from the mid-1980s to the end of the data. Across Victoria and Albert WMZs, we found that the variability in extreme precipitation indices such as CDD1 and CDD5 was significant (p<0.05). However, these WMZs were characterized by insignificant (p>0.05) variability of the PET indices such as SPETD5 and CDPET5. Changes in the precipitation and PET indices were significantly (p<0.05) found to be positively linked to the quasi-biennial oscillation. The meteorological drought indicators were significantly (p<0.05) negatively correlated with the Indian Ocean dipole and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Our findings based on NCEP's CFSR data show that variation in sub-trends of the meteorological dry conditions across Uganda resonates well with the changes in some indicators of large-scale ocean-atmosphere conditions. This is important for planning predictive adaptation to the impacts of climate variability on water resources applications which are sensitive to the severity of meteorological dry conditions. Apart from our findings, we introduced a number of extreme PET indices which can be used for analysis of meteorological dry conditions or drought.

Exposure to Brucella spp. in Goats and Sheep in Karenga District, Uganda Diagnosed by Modified Rose Bengal Method

A retrospective study was conducted in 2022 to determine the seroprevalence of brucellosis and its risk factors among goat and sheep herds in the Karenga district, Karamoja region, Uganda. Sera from 332 goats and 81 sheep from 20 kraals in all seven administrative units of the district were tested using the modified Rose Bengal test (mRBT). It was determined that brucellosis was present in 20% of the small ruminant herds in the Karenga district, with an overall animal level seropositivity of 3.39% (CI: 1.87–5.62%; n = 14/413). Higher seropositivity was recorded in goats (3.92%, CI: 2.1–6.6%) than sheep (1.23%, CI: 0.03–6.69%). Similarly, seropositivity was higher in females (3.95%, CI: 2.12–6.66%) than males (1.19%, CI: 0.03–6.456), and also higher in goats and sheep more than two years old (4.15%, CI: 2.09–7.31%) than those one to two years old (1.98%, CI: 0.24–6.97%) or those less than one year old (2.13%, CI: 0.05–11.29%). Only herd size was statistically significant (p &lt; 0.05) as a risk factor for exposure to brucellosis in the Karenga district. Although the prevalence of brucellosis among goats and sheep in the Karenga district is low, there still exists a risk to the pastoralists who closely interact with the animals and also practice risky behaviours such as consumption of uncooked or unpasteurised goat milk. There is need to expand herd health messaging in Karenga to include risk communication on brucellosis and other zoonotic diseases.

Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda.

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a transboundary, highly contagious, and fatal disease of small ruminants. PPR causes global annual economic losses of between USD 1.5 and 2.0 billion across more than 70 affected countries. Despite the commercial availability of effective PPR vaccines, lack of financial and technical commitment to PPR control coupled with a dearth of refined PPR risk profiling data in different endemic countries has perpetuated PPR virus transmission. In Uganda, over the past 5 years, PPR has extended from northeastern Uganda (Karamoja) with sporadic incursions in other districts /regions. To identify disease cluster hotspot trends that would facilitate the design and implementation of PPR risk-based control methods (including vaccination), we employed the space-time cube approach to identify trends in the clustering of outbreaks in neighbouring space-time cells using confirmed PPR outbreak report data (2007-2020). We also used negative binomial and logistic regression models and identified high small ruminant density, extended road length, low annual precipitation and high soil water index as the most important drivers of PPR in Uganda. The study identified (with 90-99% confidence) five PPR disease hotspot trend categories across subregions of Uganda. Diminishing hotspots were identified in the Karamoja region whereas consecutive, sporadic, new and emerging hotspots were identified in central and southwestern districts of Uganda. Inter-district and cross-border small ruminant movement facilitated by longer road stretches and animal comingling precipitate PPR outbreaks as well as PPR virus spread from its initial Karamoja focus to the central and southwestern Uganda. There is therefore urgent need to prioritize considerable vaccination coverage to obtain the required herd immunity among small ruminants in the new hotspot areas to block transmission to further emerging hotspots. Findings of this study provide a basis for more robust timing and prioritization of control measures including vaccination.