Kaldor's Laws Research Articles

Examination of the relationship between growth and industrialisation in the Turkish economy under the first Kaldor law

Examination of the relationship between growth and industrialisation in the Turkish economy under the first Kaldor law

Socioeconomic Impacts of Forest Fires upon Portugal: An Analysis for the Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

Recent forest fire activity has resulted in several consequences across different geographic locations where both natural and socioeconomic conditions have promoted a favorable context for what has happened in recent years in a number of countries, including Portugal. As a result, it would be interesting to examine the implications of forest fire activity in terms of the socioeconomic dynamics and performance of the agroforestry sectors in the context of those verified in the Portuguese municipalities. For this purpose, data from Statistics on Portugal was considered for output and employment from the business sector related to agricultural and forestry activities, which were disaggregated at the municipality level, for the period 2008–2015. Data for the burnt area was also considered in order to assess the impact of forest fires. The data was analyzed using econometric models in panel data based on the Keynesian (Kaldor laws) and convergence (conditional approaches) theories. The results from the Keynesian approaches show that there are signs of increasing returns to scale in the Portuguese agroforestry sectors, where the burnt area increased employment growth in agricultural activities and decreased employment in the forestry sector. Forest fires seem to create favorable conditions for agricultural employment in Portuguese municipalities and the inverse occurs for forestry employment. Additionally, some signs of convergence were identified between Portuguese municipalities for agroforestry output and employment, as well for the burnt areas. However, signs of divergence (increasing returns to scale) from the Keynesian models seem to be stronger. On the other hand, the evidence of beta convergence for the burnt areas are stronger than those verified for other variables, showing that the impacts from forest fires are more transversal across the whole country (however not enough to have sigma convergence).

Manufacturing and economic development: The actuality of Kaldor's first and second laws

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the role of the manufacturing sector in the development process based on two laws of Kaldor. The first law states that the higher the growth of the manufacturing output, the more significant is the growth rate of the economy's product as a whole. The second law, known as the Kaldor–Verdoorn law, establishes a deterministic relation between the growth of manufacturing productivity and manufacturing output growth. This paper begins showing stylized facts of the production and exports of manufactured goods to show that these remain related to the income level of countries in recent years. Thereafter, a theoretical reflection on the importance of manufacturing in the process of economic development is performed, associating it to the manufacturing exports and to the exchange rate regime. Then, the paper performs a Kaldorian model systematization to assess the importance of manufacturing and its exports on the economic development. Econometric tests are performed based on a dynamic panel data for a sample of 63 middle and high-income countries, excluding major exporters of fuels for the period between 1990 and 2011, to analyze whether there is any difference in growth dynamics between these two groups. Estimates attest the occurrence of the two Kaldor laws, demonstrating that output growth in the manufacturing sector is essential to increasing economic growth and productivity, particularly in middle-income economies. The results also confirm that manufacturing exports are relevant to the development process and that the exchange rate contributes to this process in middle-income countries.

Are The Kaldor's Laws Valid? Panel Data Analysis under Cross Section Dependency for NIC Countries.

Abstract In this study, the validity of the Kaldor's Laws in NIC (Newly industrialized countries) is tested and investigated via second generation panel data methods with structural break under cross section dependency in 1965-2012 periods and annual data are used. In analysis firstly, CrossSectionally Dependency (CD) in country was examined via CDLM test (Cross Sectionally Dependency Lagrange Multiplier) developed by Pesaran (2004) . Stationary of series was searched via CADF test (Cross-Sectionally Augmented Dickey-Fuller) developed by Pesaran (2006) considering CD. Cointegration relationship among series was examined the panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks developed by Basher and Westerlund (2009) . As a result of analysis, cointegration relationship between the series was determined. Also, the validity of the Kaldor's Law was determined.

Manufacturing and Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: A Spatial Econometric View of Kaldor's Laws

In this paper, the regional economic growth process of Turkey during the period 1990–2000 is analysed within the context of Kaldor's laws. The validity of Kaldor's three growth laws is empirically tested by spatial econometric methods as well as traditional econometric method. The empirical results reported in this paper demonstrate the validity of the laws for Turkey over the period under discussion. In testing the first law, spatial dependence is detected. The presence of spatial dependence indicates that the growth of neighbouring regions (and indirectly, the growth of their manufacturing sectors) has an effect on the growth of a region. All the empirical findings suggest that manufacturing has a key role in regional economic growth.

Actividad sociocognitiva y contextos postfordistas

In contemporary capitalism, productive economical activity changes into configuring a hybrid landscape formed by a mixture of advanced modalities based on microelectronics and language, which are postfordist, and techno-organizational and contractual components evoking, some of them, the manchesterian “factory system”. These changes involve a deep transformation of work and technic systems and organizations distinctly differents from those which appear defined by “endogenous” thesis (Smith’s version and Kaldor law). In new prototypes, turning to automatic and telecommunication systems as well as to a relational, cognitive and linguistic productive forms, knowledge raises as capital productive force. Nevertheless, most of all, this knowledge is fed by an innovative environment and a systemic and not systemic knowledge. However, these changes involve the emergence of new problems, being to emphasize the dychotomic character of those processes which generate valuating knowledge in a global context determined by asset logic.

Kaldor's Laws and Spatial Dependence: Evidence for the European Regions

PONS-NOVELL J. and VILADECANS-MARSAL E. (1999) Kaldor's laws and spatial dependence: evidence for the European regions, Reg. Studies 33, 443-451. In this paper we provide an outline of Kaldor's growth model and test its relevance to the economic experience of European regions during the period 1984-92. Kaldor's first law asserts that manufacturing is the engine of economic growth. His second proposition, also known as Verdoorn's law, states that there is a strong positive relation between manufacturing productivity growth and manufacturing output growth. Kaldor's third law holds that overall productivity growth is positively related to manufacturing output growth, and negatively related to employment in non-manufacturing sectors. The empirical results, corrected for the presence of spatial autocorrelation, indicate that Kaldor's second and third laws are compatible with the economic growth of European regions during the period 1984-92. PONS-NOVELL J. et VILADECANS-MARSAL E. (1999) Les lois de Kaldor et la dépendance géographique: des preuves provenant des régions européennes, Reg. Studies 33, 443-451. Cet article fournit une esquisse du modèle de croissance de Kaldor et évalue sa pertinence pour l'expérience économique des régions européennes de 1984 à 1992. La premie ¤ re loi de Kaldor affirme que l'industrie est le moteur de la croissance économique. La deuxième loi, connue aussi sous le nom de la loi de Verdoorn, affirme que la croissance de la productivité industrielle est en corrélation positive avec la croissance de la production industrielle. La troisième loi de Kaldor affirme que la croissance globale de la productivité est en corrélation positive avec la croissance de la production industrielle et en corrélation négative avec l'emploi dans les secteurs hors de l'industrie. Les résultats empiriques, corrigés pour autocorrélation spatiale, montrent que les deuxième et troisième lois de Kaldor sont compatibles avec la croissance économique des régions européennes de 1984 à 1992. PONS-NOVELL J. und VILADECANS-MARSAL E. (1999) Kaldors Gesetze und räumliche Abha ¨ngigkeit: Beweise für die europäischen Regionen, Reg. Studies 33, 443‐451. Mit dem vorliegenden Aufsatz stellen die Autoren eine Übersicht über Kaldors Wachstumsmodell vor, und prüfen seine Relevanz für die Wirtschaftserfahrungen der europäischen Regionen im Zeitraum 1984‐1992. Kaldors erstes Gesetz behauptet, Herstellung sei das Zugpferd wirtschaftlichen Wachstums. Seine zweite Aussage, die auch unter der Bezeichnung Verdoorns Gesetz bekannt ist, stellt fest, daß zwischen der Zunahme der Herstellerproduktivität und dem Anstieg der Ertragsleistung eine durchaus positive Beziehung bestehe. Kaldors drittes Gesetz ist der Ansicht, daß die Gesamtzunahme der Produktivität sich positiv zum Anstieg der Ertragsleistung verhält, doch negativ zur Beschäftigung in nicht-herstellenden Sektoren. Die auf das Vorhandensein räumlicher Autokorrelation hin korrigierten, empirischen Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, daß Kaldors zweites und drittes Gesetz mit dem wirtschaftlichen Wachstum europäischer Regionen im Zeitraum 1984‐1992 vereinbar ist.

Manufacturing and economic growth in the United States

Kaldor's growth laws are applied to the post-World War II United States. Each variable employed in the time-series analysis is smoothed with a moving average. This procedure successfully mitigates the effects of short-term cyclical changes and emphasizes long-term economic growth, indicate that Kaldor's laws are compatible with the economic growth of United States.

Economic growth and Kaldor's law: the case of Turkey, 1925–78

In this paper Kaldor's enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the Turkish economy. The results obtained, regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used, consistently support the hypothesis.

Verdoorn's and Kaldor's law in tax administration: an international analysis

(1990). Verdoorn's and Kaldor's law in tax administration: an international analysis. Applied Economics: Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 529-538.

A New View of Economic Growth.

Part 1 Materials: growth concepts and facts. Part 2 Demolition: orthodox growth theories unorthodox growth theories - Schumpeter, Hirschman, Kaldor, Mirrlees, Arrow, Eltis, Kennedy, Nelson and Winter. Part 3 Construction: investment, invention and scientific discovery - Schmookler's Invention and Economic Growth a new growth model the rate of return the determinants of the share of investment in output and the complete growth model - the Ramsey approach growth of the firm and industry. Part 4 Use: why growth rates differ Verdoorn's and Kaldor's Laws Fabricant's Laws - Salter's and Kennedy's analyses taxation and growth the optimum rate of investment and growth the slow-down in productivity growth after 1973. Statistical appendix: the scope for catch-up weights used for the regressions the effects of changes in hours of work on labour productivity USA, Japan and UK - sources and methods continental European countries - sources and methods.

Economic growth, Kaldor's laws and the static–dynamic Verdoorn law paradox

(1982). Economic growth, Kaldor's laws and the static–dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. Applied Economics: Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 279-294.

What Still Remains of Kaldor's Laws?

What Still Remains of Kaldor's Laws?

Kaldor's law and British economic growth: 1800–1970

Kaldor's law and British economic growth: 1800–1970

Differences in Growth Rates and Kaldor's Laws

where p is the rate of growth of productivity, q is the rate of growth of output, e is the rate of growth of employment, and a, (3, -y and 8 are parameters. Kaldor regressed e on q to support his conclusion that the slow growth of industrial productivity was due to a shortage of labour which prevented exploitation of economies of scale. He took the growth rate q of manufacturing output as an independent variable and regressed the growth rate of productivity p and of employment e on q, concluding that each percentage addition to the growth of output requires a 0.5 per cent increase in the growth rate of employment, in terms of man-hours, and is associated with a 0.5 per cent increase in the growth of productivity. The argument depends on a positive relationship between productivity and employment, and Rowthorn (1975a) examined this by regressing p directly on e rather than indirectly by regressing p or e on q as shown in (1) and (2). He concluded that the positive association depended entirely on the presence of one extreme observation, and that if Japan were excluded from the sample the association between p and e disappeared. The main purpose of this paper is to argue that both sets of results are subject to simultaneous equations bias and that mis-specification of estimated equations leads to incorrect estimates and wrong conclusions.

What Remains of Kaldor's Law?

What Remains of Kaldor's Law?