Jura Mountains Research Articles

The buried medieval pasture of Onoldswil (Niederdorf BL, Switzerland, ad 1295): an example of a well preserved palaeobiocoenosis

In the late spring of the year ad 1295 a landslide devastated the village of Onoldswil in the Swiss Jura mountains. During recent construction work, a small area of the original land surface was unearthed. The 5 m of compacted clay deposited by the landslide had caused the complete exclusion of oxygen and underneath it the excavators came upon mosses, blades of grasses and other plants that were still green. Below the vegetation cover the humus horizon with subterranean plant parts appeared. Samples were taken for plant macro- and microfossil and geoarchaeological analyses. This offered the rare opportunity to study the vegetation and the topsoil of a small area of land preserved in situ as an autochthonous palaeobiocoenosis, the preserved original combination of the plant community which grew there. Grassland taxa dominated the pollen and macrofossil spectra. Compacted zones within the humus horizon, the plant taxa composition and the presence of spores of coprophilous fungi showed that this place had once been a nutrient-rich pasture. Grazing animals had favoured the spread of juniper. Manuring seems to have taken place. The slopes of the surrounding mountains had been largely cleared of woodland, which may have been the cause of the landslide. The disaster probably happened in late spring, because entire fruiting capitula of Taraxacum officinale (dandelion) were found. Landslides are catastrophic events, destroying the soils and everything that lives in and on them on their way downhill. In places, however, they can also blanket the original land surface and its vegetation and create an archive of ancient life.

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains.

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25ms-1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change.

Monitoring soil moisture from middle to high elevation in Switzerland: set-up and first results from the SOMOMOUNT network

Abstract. Besides its important role in the energy and water balance at the soil–atmosphere interface, soil moisture can be a particular important factor in mountain environments since it influences the amount of freezing and thawing in the subsurface and can affect the stability of slopes. In spite of its importance, the technical challenges and its strong spatial variability usually prevents soil moisture from being measured operationally at high and/or middle altitudes. This study describes the new Swiss soil moisture monitoring network SOMOMOUNT (soil moisture in mountainous terrain) launched in 2013. It consists of six entirely automated soil moisture stations distributed along an altitudinal gradient between the Jura Mountains and the Swiss Alps, ranging from 1205 to 3410 m a.s.l. in elevation. In addition to the standard instrumentation comprising frequency domain sensor and time domain reflectometry (TDR) sensors along vertical profiles, soil probes and meteorological data are available at each station. In this contribution we present a detailed description of the SOMOMOUNT instrumentation and calibration procedures. Additionally, the liquid soil moisture (LSM) data collected during the first 3 years of the project are discussed with regard to their soil type and climate dependency as well as their altitudinal distribution. The observed elevation dependency of LSM is found to be non-linear, with an increase of the mean annual values up to ∼ 2000 m a.s.l. followed by a decreasing trend towards higher elevations. This altitude threshold marks the change between precipitation-/evaporation-controlled and frost-affected LSM regimes. The former is characterized by high LSM throughout the year and minimum values in summer, whereas the latter typically exhibits long-lasting winter minimum LSM values and high variability during the summer.

Tools to simulate changes in hydraulic flow systems in complex geologic settings affected by tunnel excavation

Geotechnical problems during and after tunnel construction are often related to groundwater circulation. In tunnelling projects, however, groundwater flow systems are often only partly known. This uncertainty is manifested by the typically scarce hydraulic data that limits the understanding of subsurface hydrogeological processes. In particular, there is a general lack of data documenting groundwater flow changes caused by tunnelling. The present paper presents a concept involving an iterative understanding of subsurface hydrogeological systems influenced by tunnelling. A major challenge of our approach consists of integrating complex geological geometries from a 3D geological model (GOCAD) into a numerical groundwater flow model (COMSOL Multiphysics). The starting point is a 3D geological model representing a regional tectonic system located in the Jura Mountains in Switzerland. This geological model is transferred into regional and local-scale groundwater flow models. Due to the lack of hydrogeological data, a 3D view of geological–hydrogeological systems is often required to respond to groundwater-induced geotechnical problems in tunnelling. Numerical groundwater flow models make it possible to perform sensitivity analysis and to test how boundary conditions and hydraulic property distributions influence calculated groundwater flow regimes. In addition, our approach enables testing the effects of changes of hydraulic regimes due to tunnel excavation at different scales.

The comparative osteology of Plesiochelys bigleri n. sp., a new coastal marine turtle from the Late Jurassic of Porrentruy (Switzerland).

BackgroundDuring the Late Jurassic, several groups of eucryptodiran turtles inhabited the shallow epicontinental seas of Western Europe. Plesiochelyidae are an important part of this first radiation of crown-group turtles into coastal marine ecosystems. Fossils of Plesiochelyidae occur in many European localities, and are especially abundant in the Kimmeridgian layers of the Swiss Jura Mountains (Solothurn and Porrentruy). In the mid-19th century, the quarries of Solothurn (NW Switzerland) already provided a large amount of fossil turtles, most notably Plesiochelys etalloni, the best-known plesiochelyid species. Recent excavations in the Porrentruy area (NW Switzerland) revealed new fossils of Plesiochelys, including numerous well-preserved shells with associated cranial and postcranial material.Methods/resultsOut of 80 shells referred to Plesiochelys, 41 are assigned to a new species, Plesiochelys bigleri n. sp., including a skull–shell association. We furthermore refer 15 shells to Plesiochelys etalloni, and 24 shells to Plesiochelys sp. Anatomical comparisons show that Plesiochelys bigleri can clearly be differentiated from Plesiochelys etalloni by cranial features. The shell anatomy and the appendicular skeleton of Plesiochelys bigleri and Plesiochelys etalloni are very similar. However, a statistical analysis demonstrates that the thickness of neural bones allows to separate the two species based on incomplete material. This study furthermore illustrates the extent of intraspecific variation in the shell anatomy of Plesiochelys bigleri and Plesiochelys etalloni.

The dinosaur tracksite of Plagne (early Tithonian, Late Jurassic; Jura Mountains, France): The longest known sauropod trackway

The trackway of a huge sauropod, and the longest sauropod trackway currently known, reaching 155 m in length, has been excavated in Eastern France, alongside a shorter theropod trackway. They have been precisely dated to the early Tithonian (Late Jurassic), when the trackway site was located at the southeastern margin of the carbonate-dominated Jura platform, in a protected littoral mudflat environment. The footprints are preserved to various degrees along the trackways, depending on the initial condition of the sediment of various competences. The best-preserved section of the sauropod trackway allows this specimen to be attributed to Brontopodus plagnensis nov. isp. This new trackway site, alongside other Early Jurassic Swiss and French tracksites yielding thousands of sauropod and theropod tracks, can be considered as being the largest dinosaur megatracksite in Europe.

A new species of Protonemura Kempny, 1898 (Plecoptera: Nemouridae) from the French and Swiss Jura Mountains

A new species of Protonemura Kempny, 1898, P. jurassica sp. n., endemic to the Jura Mountains of France and Switzerland, is described from both adults and nymphs. Information on the distribution, ecological preferences and conservation status of this new species is also provided.

Cmentarz. Antropologiczna lektura przestrzeni i pamięci na przykładzie wiejskiego cmentarza w Złotym Potoku

From the cultural point of view, the space of a cemetery is an unfinished artefact; it undergoes constant transformations both as a material and as a non-material construct. It functions as a palimpsest whose space is created and adjusted by the passage of time; it is time that imposes new meanings and identities upon it. To read a cemetery correctly, one needs to be familiar with the language in which it has been written and to subject it to several readings, since the first reading, i.e. that of a cemetery’s “clearly visible, evident and intentionally exposed” (as J. Kolbuszewski put it) objects and signs, does not allow the scholar to profoundly reconstruct its space. My example will be a village cemetery located in the Cracow-Czestochowa Jura region (in the village of Zloty Potok, Janow commune, Czestochowa county).

Responses of antinomic foliar traits to experimental climate forcing in beech and spruce saplings

Global warming is predicted to have a strong impact on mountain ecosystems. Subalpine sylvopastoral systems are very sensitive to climate change, which puts their future sustainability at stake. These ecosystems are mostly dominated by spruce and beech, and therefore their regeneration abilities are critical in this context. The main objective was to characterize the short-term responses, of foliar traits in beech and spruce saplings through phenotypic plasticity with regard of actual scenarios of climate change. Therefore, we transplanted saplings from a cold environment at 1350m a.s.l. in the Swiss Jura mountains to three recipient sites at lower altitudes along an altitudinal gradient, in the experimental framework of a space-for-time substitution approach and measured morpho-anatomical foliar traits. The results revealed for beech an increase of xeromorphism through the increase of the cuticle thickness, vein network and smaller stomata, associated, surprisingly, to a higher leaf area. This antinomic response allowed beech to grow in warmer conditions while coping with an increase of evaporative demand during summer. Spruce did not present as much plasticity as compared to beech due to its inherent xeromorphic traits. Our findings further suggest a strong correlation between the timing of the leaf development, extreme conditions and tree growth. These contrasting strategies may lead to the competitive advantage of beech over spruce under climate change.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring.

In temperate trees, the timings of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water, and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been yet investigated in trees. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1,340 vs. 371m a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease in air temperature in winter/spring resulted in a delay of 10.9days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8days. Interestingly, we also found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in late summer. Budset of saplings that experienced a cooler winter was delayed by 31days compared to the control, whereas it was delayed by only 10days in saplings that experienced a warmer winter. Budburst timing in 2015 was not significantly impacted by the artificial advance or delay of the budburst timing in 2014, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Ancient mtDNA diversity reveals specific population development of wild horses in Switzerland after the Last Glacial Maximum.

On large geographical scales, changes in animal population distribution and abundance are driven by environmental change due to climatic and anthropogenic processes. However, so far, little is known about population dynamics on a regional scale. We have investigated 92 archaeological horse remains from nine sites mainly adjacent to the Swiss Jura Mountains dating from c. 41,000–5,000 years BP. The time frame includes major environmental turning points such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), followed by steppe vegetation, afforestation and initial re-opening of the landscape by human agricultural activities. To investigate matrilinear population dynamics, we assembled 240 base pairs of the mitochondrial d-loop. FST values indicate large genetic differentiation of the horse populations that were present during and directly after the LGM. After the retreat of the ice, a highly diverse population expanded as demonstrated by significantly negative results for Tajima’s D, Fu’s FS and mismatch analyses. At the same time, a different development took place in Asia where populations declined after the LGM. This first comprehensive investigation of wild horse remains on a regional scale reveals a discontinuous colonisation of succeeding populations, a pattern that diverges from the larger Eurasian trend.

Contrasting processes drive alpha and beta taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of orthopteran communities in grasslands

Taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversities can respond differently to biotic and abiotic filters. However, biodiversity management tends to focus on a single index, generally taxonomic diversity, assuming a strong positive correlation among biodiversity components across scales. This can result in a mismanagement of functional and phylogenetic diversities with negative consequences for ecosystem functioning and long-term maintenance of services. Understanding the relationships among biodiversity components, how they change across scales and which their main drivers are can lead to more sustainable management of biodiversity and its associated ecosystem services and functions.We used an integrative approach of biodiversity where we investigated alpha and beta taxonomic (TD), functional (FD) and phylogenetic (PD) diversity of orthopteran communities as well as species and functional traits composition and their associated drivers at the local and landscape scales in permanent mesic grasslands of the French Jura Mountains. We assessed whether orthopteran TD, FD and PD were positively correlated. We also determined the drivers of TD, FD and PD and their changes across scales and among indices using data related to soil, agricultural practices, elevation, and biotic interactions with plants.Our results showed that (i) elevation was a strong driver of orthopteran community trait composition, (ii) orthopteran alpha TD, FD and PD were correlated among themselves and increased with plant species richness, and (iii) local beta diversity was not correlated with alpha diversity. Beta diversity had different drivers at local and landscape scale: it was influenced by soil chemistry and texture at the local scale and increased with the difference in elevation among plots at the landscape scale.This study evidences distinct processes driving alpha and beta diversity of orthopteran communities at both the local and landscape scales. It supports the hypothesis that less intensive agricultural practices enhance orthopteran diversity and highlights the importance to consider beta diversity at both local and landscape scale when designing and assessing the management regimes of grassland ecosystems. Prioritizing the importance of the different biodiversity components and spatial scales constitutes an important challenge for sustainable grassland management.

Interpolation of temperatures under forest cover on a regional scale in the French Jura Mountains

ABSTRACTA network of 48 stations was setup in the Jura Mountains (France) to interpolate temperatures under forest cover, an environment that differs markedly from open sites. The stations were positioned so as to sample all topographical settings. The series analysed consisted of the daily minima and maxima extracted from observations recorded for a year (356 days). Regressions were used to describe relations between temperatures under forest cover (dependent random variables) and a set of explanatory variables: latitudinal and longitudinal variations, distance to the nearest forest edge, and seven variables derived from a digital terrain model by geomatic computation [elevation, slope gradient, sine and cosine of slope aspect, global radiation (g‐rad), valley depth, and hump amplitude]. Elevation is the variable that most strongly affects the spatial variation of temperatures under forest cover followed by valley depth, longitudinal variation, and g‐rad (for maxima only). Variables that are significant at the 10% level are combined in multiple regressions with a view to estimating temperatures at 50 m resolution. TheMAEvalues are 0.82 and 0.77 °C for minima and maxima, respectively; adjustedR2values are 0.47 for minima and 0.64 for maxima. Finally, we present four maps of estimated temperature under forest cover.

Modelling the diversion of erratic boulders by the Valais Glacier during the last glacial maximum

ABSTRACTIn this study, a modelling approach was used to investigate the cause of the diversion of erratic boulders from Mont Blanc and southern Valais by the Valais Glacier to the Solothurn lobe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, we simulated the ice flow field during the LGM, and analyzed the trajectories taken by erratic boulders from areas with characteristic lithologies. The main difficulty in this exercise laid with the large uncertainties affecting the paleo climate forcing required as input for the surface mass-balance model. In order to mimic the prevailing climate conditions during the LGM, we applied different temperature offsets and regional precipitation corrections to present-day climate data, and selected the parametrizations, which yielded the best match between the modelled ice extent and the geomorphologically-based ice-margin reconstruction. After running a range of simulations with varying parameters, our results showed that only one parametrization allowed boulders to be diverted to the Solothurn lobe during the LGM. This precipitation pattern supports the existing theory of preferential southwesterly advection of moisture to the alps during the LGM, but also indicates strongly enhanced precipitation over the Mont Blanc massif and enhanced cooling over the Jura Mountains.

Tree-ring δ13C of archeological charcoals as indicator of past climatic seasonality. A case study from the Neolithic settlements of Lake Chalain (Jura, France)

Charcoal fragments from the Neolithic settlements of Lake Chalain (Jura Mountains, France) were characterized by dendro-anthracology (charcoal-pith distance, tree-ring width, earlywood/latewood proportion) and ring-scale isotope geochemistry (13C) to assess the relevance of this combined approach for paleoclimate reconstructions. Two differing climatic periods were investigated: (i) a climatic deterioration period characterized by cool and moist conditions and (ii) a climatic improvement period characterized by slightly less precipitation and warmer temperature. Latewood proportion in charcoal tree-rings was similar for the two studied climatic periods. However, the charcoal tree-rings exhibited width and 13C-content significantly different between the two studied periods, in agreement with previously inferred climatic difference. Monitoring ring-to-ring 13C variation within each charcoal fragment revealed no noticeable climatic trend, for none of the studied periods. However, calculation of the difference in 13C-content between earlywood and latewood of a given tree-ring suggested that the cool and moist climatic period also corresponded to higher seasonal contrast than the dryer climatic period. Although this exploratory study needs further confirmation, it opens promising developments for paleoclimatic reconstructions based on the stable carbon isotope composition of archeological charcoals: the potential for recording subtle paleoclimatic variations and seasonal contrasts.

Remarks on Petrascula bugesiaca Bernier, 1979 from the uppermost Jurassic−lowermost Cretaceous limestones of Romania

AbstractPetrascula bugesiaca was described by Bernier (1979) from Portlandian (= Tithonian) limestones of the Sothern Jura Mountains (French Switzerland), and since the first description, has never been identified in any other place. The study of uppermost Jurassic olistoliths embedded in Cretaceous conglomerates from Piatra Craiului (South Carpathians, Romania) gave us the possibility to identify well preserved specimens of this dasycladalean alga. The new material confirms Bernier's ascription of the species to the genus Petrascula, being characterized by a club‐shaped morphology.

Evidence of plutonium bioavailability in pristine freshwaters of a karst system of the Swiss Jura Mountains

The interaction of trace environmental plutonium with dissolved natural organic matter (NOM) plays an important role on its mobility and bioavailability in freshwater environments. Here we explore the speciation and biogeochemical behavior of Pu in freshwaters of the karst system in the Swiss Jura Mountains. Chemical extraction and ultrafiltration methods were complemented by diffusive gradients in thin films technique (DGT) to measure the dissolved and bioavailable Pu fraction in water. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was used to accurately determine Pu in this pristine environment. Selective adsorption of Pu (III, IV) on silica gel showed that 88% of Pu in the mineral water is found in +V oxidation state, possibly in a highly soluble [PuO2+(CO3)n]m− form. Ultrafiltration experiments at 10kDa yielded a similar fraction of colloid-bound Pu in the organic-rich and in mineral water (18–25%). We also found that the concentrations of Pu measured by DGT in mineral water are similar to the bulk concentration, suggesting that dissolved Pu is readily available for biouptake. Sequential elution (SE) of Pu from aquatic plants revealed important co-precipitation of potentially labile Pu (60–75%) with calcite fraction within outer compartment of the plants. Hence, we suggest that plutonium is fully available for biological uptake in both mineral and organic-rich karstic freshwaters.

Three-dimensional modelling of folds, thrusts, and strike-slip faults in the area of Val de Ruz (Jura Mountains, Switzerland)

The Val-de-Ruz syncline is a northeast-southwest trending, rhomb-shaped synclinal basin in the internal part of the central Jura Mountains. The Mesozoic sediment succession is decoupled from the basement by a decollement horizon in Middle Triassic evaporite-bearing layers at depth and folding is associated with southeast-dipping thrust splays rooting into this decollement. The folds and thrusts also interfere with a system of N-S striking, sinistral strike-slip faults. A 3D model was constructed from the following input data: A digital elevation model, the 1:25,000 geological map of Switzerland, published contours of the top of basement based on drilling and seismics, and nine newly constructed cross-sections. The latter are based on surface geology and published seismic data. Cross-sections parallel to the northwestward transport direction, i.e. perpendicular to the overall strike, are line balanced. Anticlines are interpreted as faulted detachment folds, which initiated by buckling and associated flow of evaporites from synclinal to anticlinal areas. Anticlines were later broken by northwest-vergent thrusts and subsequently developed into fault-propagation folds during decollement from the basement and northwestward translation. The model assumes no faulting in the pre-Mesozoic basement and no hidden flat-ramp tectonics in the subsurface in order to account for structurally high positions. As a consequence, the modelled cumulative, post-deformation thickness of Triassic strata locally exceeds 1500 m, which we find in accordance with regional observations. From the geological 3D model, new cross-sections in any desired orientation and tectonic thickness variations of the layers can be extracted. The three output cross-sections presented are in excellent agreement with published reflection seismic data. The most important features of our model are (1) large thickness variations due to lateral flow of evaporites, and (2) new and plausible explanation of structural highs in terms of accumulation of Triassic strata by lateral flow.

From medieval land clearing to industrial development: 800 years of human-impact history in the Joux Valley (Swiss Jura)

The Joux Valley (Swiss Jura Mountains) has a rather unusual history of human occupation, characterized by tardive but extensive settlement since the Late Middle Ages, followed by an intensive period of industrial development. To estimate the links between human activities and environmental consequences, sediment cores were retrieved in Lake Joux and submitted to a multiproxy analysis (high-resolution photographs, magnetic susceptibility, density, x-ray fluorescence, grain size, organic geochemistry, 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs dating). The diversity of anthropication phases, defined from historical data, is clearly recognized in the lake archive. The record suggests the region was mainly under climatic influence until the end of the 13th century. The growth of settlements in the valley and the associated massive deforestation is recorded by increasing terrestrial inputs, reflecting large-scale soil destabilization, which subsequently persists despite the transition from farming to industrial activities. Autochthonous contributions then dominate the record, both in response to climatic and anthropogenic influences. Construction works conducted at the outlet of the lake affected water flow, sedimentation and aquatic community (macrophytes, ostracods) dynamics. The substantial increase of anthropogenic heavy metals (Fe, Zn, Pb) recorded during the 20th century could reflect the development of the watch-making industry in the area, as well as the use of leaded gasoline. Historical information facilitated interpretation of the observed paleolimnological evolution in the context of varied coexisting human activities. This study highlights the importance of applying an integrated paleolimnological-historical approach in order to establish clear links between well-defined human activities and their subsequent environmental responses through time.

Combining human acceptance and habitat suitability in a unified socio‐ecological suitability model: a case study of the wolf in Switzerland

Summary Habitat suitability models (HSMs) are commonly used in conservation practise to assess the potential of an area to be occupied and colonised. A major limitation of these models, however, is the omission of spatially explicit understanding of human acceptance towards the focal species. As wildlife is more and more subject to human‐dominated landscapes, ignoring the sociological component will result in misrepresentation of the observed processes and inappropriate management. We distributed 10 000 questionnaires across Switzerland and identified key socio‐demographical factors correlated with human acceptance of the wolf. We then created a spatially explicit acceptance model based on geo‐referenced socio‐demographical, social and geographical information. Finally, we combined our acceptance model with a HSM to obtain a unified socio‐ecological suitability model, which included human and ecological components. We showed that the key factors associated with human acceptance were perception of how harmful the wolf is, interest in wolf‐related issues, need for livestock protection, and fear of the wolf. Perceived harmfulness was in turn correlated with direct and indirect experience with the wolf, and level of education. Our acceptance map predicted decreasing acceptance with increasing altitude of residency and proximity to locations of confirmed wolf presence. This resulted in the overall opposition to the wolf for the Alpine region, albeit substantial regional differences. We found little spatial overlap (6% of Switzerland) between areas where the wolf was accepted and areas of suitable habitat. These areas of socio‐ecological suitability were concentrated in the Jura Mountains and in the eastern and southern Alps, and were absent in the western and central Alps. Particularly in the Jura region, which is yet to be colonised, management of human acceptance will be a crucial conservation target. Synthesis and applications. We developed an integrative, socio‐ecological approach that allowed us to accurately reproduce recent wolf recolonisation. We anticipate our framework to be a powerful tool to reliably evaluate overall suitable habitats and predict short to medium‐term range expansion for species whose distribution is also dependent on human attitudes. Because our approach is sensitive to both the ecological and human component, it is ideally suited to identify key regions where proactive and targeted socio‐ecological management plans are needed.