Judgmental Heuristics Research Articles

Does (Biasing) Nonverbal Information Deteriorate the Accuracy of the Take‐the‐Best Heuristic for Deception Detection?

ABSTRACTPeople are poor lie detectors, partly because they hold false beliefs about nonverbal cues to deception. Here, we investigated if guiding people to rely only on a message's detailedness (“take‐the‐best”) boosts their lie detection and to what extent such heuristic judgments are immune to nonverbal information. In three studies (Ns = 109, 88 and 144), participants made detailedness‐based veracity judgements, of text versus video statements (Study 1), or of statements without or with biasing nonverbal behavior (truth tellers diverting, liars maintaining gaze; Studies 2 and 3). Compared to unguided judgements, participants using the heuristic method achieved higher deception detection accuracy throughout. Mere access to nonverbal behavior did not deteriorate performance (Study 1), but the heuristic was not fully immune to biasing nonverbal behavior (Studies 2, 3). Our findings challenge the lay notion that access to nonverbal behavior benefits deception detection and suggest that only focusing on diagnostic cues improves lie detection.

Navigating the online reputation maze: impact of review availability and heuristic cues on restaurant influencer marketing effectiveness

ABSTRACT Restaurants can engage and attract social media users by showcasing their food or services through influencer marketing campaigns. However, the influencers and restaurant companies need to understand the underlying mechanism for presenting online reviews to attract customers to restaurants better. This study applies the theory of judgment heuristics and develops a conceptual model to test the effects of review availability (present vs. absent) and heuristic cues (scarcity, vividness, and frequency) on followers’ perceptions and behavioral intention. Two experiments were conducted. Results showed that the scarcity cue moderates the mediation effect of informativeness between review availability and visit intention. The study also found that instead of being cognitive “misers”, consumers use multiple cues to assist their purchase decisions. The findings provide restaurant companies and food influencers with meaningful insights that they can employ to craft effective social media content.

Auditor Judgment Bias Research: A 50-Year Trend Analysis and Emerging Technology Use

ABSTRACTThe increased development and use of automated and cognitive technologies at the Global Six, in conjunction with the increased availability of data and various levels of data structure, may exacerbate auditor judgment bias or give rise to new biases. We take a comprehensive approach to gain a new perspective by providing a 50-year trend analysis of auditor judgment bias, which results from relying on judgmental heuristics and the potential effects that the use of cognitive and automated technologies, such as artificial intelligence, may have on judgment. We describe individual biases and identify specific areas of research, commonalities and differences, gaps in the literature, and research methods applied. We construct a conceptual framework as a point of departure to guide future research by focusing on the impact of emerging technology. We conclude by identifying opportunities for future research.

The market effectiveness of regulatory certification for sustainable food supply: A conjoint analysis approach

The commitment to sustainability follows the consensus of adopting integrated governance to mitigate uncertainty about the whole food system. Thus, a coherent intermediary framework emerges in response to the food system crisis, pledging a “farm to fork” regulatory certification with enhanced credibility and reduced search cost compared with the fragmented intermediation. Yet, the institutional practice is scarce, and the market effectiveness remains underexamined. Drawing upon the heuristic-systematic model from the dual-process theory, this research builds the view of sustainable choice as a hierarchical decision process. The regulatory certification enacts an easy but reliable heuristic judgment, establishing an adaptive base for further systematic decisions. Specifically, common barriers (such as the status quo bias and price sensitivity) to sustainable action are not firmly established as typically assumed; instead, consumer reluctance to action arises from the lacking of a dominant heuristic. Consumers with an available regulatory certification experience less difficult trade-offs and have stronger preferences for technology innovation, such as digital production for food industry 4.0. Potentially, the segment that values regulatory certification as the crucial heuristic accounts for approximately 50%. This research provides insightful implications on how governance reforms spark a shift to sustainable food supply and the market effectiveness of inviting consumers to join the initiatives.

How heuristics in judgement influence the securities investment decision process

Heuristics and biases are a widely researched topic in the field of behavioral finance. Yet, most studies only investigate the effects of heuristics and biases under laboratory conditions and consequently do not consider that financial decisions are likely to be made quite differently under laboratory conditions than in real life. Therefore, the purpose of our study is to investigate the effects of heuristics on the securities investment decision-making process in real-life financial advice conversations. To this end, we analyze the buying behavior of 200 individually observed retail customers of a German bank. Specifically, fifteen securities advisors were instructed to actively induce heuristics to measure how these cognitive biases distort customers' decision making with respect to purchase probability, one-time investment amount, and monthly savings plans. Our results indicate that heuristics in judgement affect the likelihood that customers purchase a product at all, but they do not seem to affect the amount of investment or the level of savings plans.

BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND SIMPLE HEURISTICS

This article focuses on the methodological principles and empirical data denying ineffective operation of heuristic judgment (erroneous judgment). It is shown that when people make decisions in every-day situations there is very little possibility of meeting the requirements of normative – rational model. The article describes the principle of bounded rationality and its importance in the description and differentiation of the mental mechanisms determining decision making. Sequential search of information (choice is determined by knowledge obtained by the individual), ensuring equity (the individual has to make an investment when making a choice), availability – by – recall (the individual’s choice is based on the recall of past experience) are reviewed in the context of adjustment to the environment. An emphasis is made on the aspiration level heuristic (the target the individual thinks she/he is able to achieve). The effectiveness of the methods is analyzed from the perspective of the content and composition of the tasks faced by the individual.&nbsp

Halo effects and public evaluation of police service

ABSTRACT Public opinion of police service provides important guidelines for government leaders and policy practitioners who strive to improve police-community relations and restructure law enforcement agencies. Despite its widespread use, citizen evaluation of police service is bias-prone due to the subjective nature of people’s judgment heuristics. Considering that the impact of police actions on public opinion is not limited to those that police directly deal with, this study examines whether people’s general impression on the police plays a role in how they rate smaller traits of police. To this end, the present study revisits Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues’ Police Services Study conducted in Rochester, St. Louis, and Tampa-St. Petersburg. Findings show that citizens’ overall perception on police service creates a halo, which positively influences their subsequent appraisals of police courtesy, equal treatment, and honesty, respectively. This study ultimately underscores the nuanced understanding of police service information reported from citizen surveys.

Reactions to geographic data visualization of infectious disease outbreaks: an experiment on the effectiveness of data presentation format and past occurrence information

ObjectivesThis study intended to compare the effectiveness of thematic maps with that of tabular data in comprehension and memory of risk magnitudes, with Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks in the United States as the subject matter. The study also aimed to examine the effects of data presentation format and past occurrence information on risk perception and risk avoidance intention. Study designThis study used an experiment. MethodsEach participant was randomly assigned to view ZIKV disease 2017 incidence data presented in one of the three formats: a choropleth map, a graduated-circle map, and a table, after which they answered questions about comprehension and memory of risk magnitudes. Each participant was then randomly assigned to view or not to view incidence data of the previous occurrence of ZIKV outbreaks in 2016, after which they answered questions about risk perception and risk avoidance intention. ResultsThe results revealed the effectiveness of thematic maps over tabular data in comprehension, risk perception, and risk avoidance intention. Compared to tabular data, the choropleth map led to a better comprehension of relative risk magnitudes, the graduated-circle map led to higher risk perception, and both thematic maps led to greater risk avoidance intention. In contrast, tabular data led to better recognition of absolute risk magnitudes than both thematic maps. In addition, past occurrence information enhanced risk perception and risk avoidance intention. ConclusionsThe findings reveal the importance of data presentation format in comprehension and memory of risk magnitudes. This can be attributed to the cognitive match between the information emphasized in the presentation and that required by the tasks. The findings also suggest that data presentation format and past occurrence information are important judgmental heuristics that help to form risk perception and risk avoidance intention.

The implicit sense of agency is not a perceptual effect but is a judgment effect.

The sense of agency (SoA) is characterized as the sense of being the causal agent of one's own actions, and it is measured in two forms: explicit and implicit. In the explicit SoA experiments, the participants explicitly report whether they have a sense of control over their actions or whether they or somebody else is the causal agent of seen actions; the implicit SoA experiments study how do participants' agentive or voluntary actions modify perceptual processes (like time, vision, tactility, and audition) without directly asking the participants to explicitly think about their causal agency or sense of control. However, recent implicit SoA literature reported contradictory findings of the relationship between implicit SoA reports and agency states. Thus, I argue that the purported implicit SoA reports are not agency-driven perceptual effects per se but are judgment effects, by showing that (a) the typical operationalizations in implicit SoA domain lead to perceptual uncertainty on the part of the participants, (b) under uncertainty, participants' implicit SoA reports are due to heuristic judgments which are independent of agency states, and (c) under perceptual certainty, the typical implicit SoA reports might not have occurred at all. Thus, I conclude that the instances of implicit SoA are judgments (or response biases)-under uncertainty-rather than perceptual effects.

‘Tuscans are different’: the cognitive dimension of local asylum policymaking during the 2015 European ‘refugee crisis’

ABSTRACT This article sheds light on the so-far-neglected role of decision-makers’ subjective interpretations and cognitive factors in local asylum policymaking, complementing and challenging the existing literature explaining local policy responses to the 2015 European ‘refugee crisis’. How and why do local decision-makers interpret the environment in which they operate? Do subjective interpretations contribute to influence local asylum policymaking, and how? To analyse these questions, the paper adopts an actor-centred approach grounded on framing and sensemaking theories and on Bevir and Rhodes’ concept of ‘situated agency’, and it develops a methodology based on anonymous interviews and social network analysis. Such an approach is applied to the heuristic case of Tuscany, an Italian region where the local asylum policies produced during the ‘crisis’ cannot be convincingly explained by looking merely at structural, institutional or strategic factors. Three arguments are developed here. First, at least in situations of ‘crisis’, local decision-makers are not mere passive recipients of information, but active interpreters and rationalizers, whose subjective interpretations result from framing processes and several judgement heuristics. Second, these interpretations can decisively influence local migration policymaking. Third, these interpretations can be also shaped by policy outputs, meaning that local asylum policymaking processes can have important constitutive effects.

Regular Two-Dimensional Packing of Congruent Objects: Cognitive Analysis of Honeycomb Constructions

A new approach to investigate the two-dimensional, regular packing of arbitrary geometric objects (GOs), using cognitive visualization, is presented. GOs correspond to congruent non-convex polygons with their associated coordinate system. The origins of these coordinate systems are accepted by object poles. The approach considered is based on cognitive processes that are forms of heuristic judgments. According to the first heuristic judgment, regular packing of congruent GOs on the plane have a honeycomb structure, that is, each GO contacts six neighboring GO, the poles of which are vertices of the pole hexagon in the honeycomb construction of packing. Based on the visualization of the honeycomb constructions a second heuristic judgment is obtained, according to which inside the hexagon of the poles, there are fragments of three GOs. The consequence is a third heuristic judgment on the plane covering density with regular packings of congruent GOs. With the help of cognitive visualization, it is established that inside the hexagon of poles there are fragments of exactly three objects. The fourth heuristic judgment is related to the proposal of a triple lattice packing for regular packing of congruent GOs.

Selecting products through text reviews: An MCDM method incorporating personalized heuristic judgments in the prospect theory

Online reviews have become an increasingly popular information source in consumer’s decision making process. To help consumers make informed decisions, how to select products through online reviews is a valuable research topic. This work deals with a personized product selection problem with review sentiments under probabilistic linguistic circumstances. To this end, we propose a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method incorporating personalized heuristic judgments in the prospect theory (PT). We focus on the role of personalized heuristic judgments on review helpfulness in the final decision outcomes. We demonstrate the consistency between the three common heuristic judgments (with respect to review valence, sentiment extremity, and aspiration levels) and the three behavioral principles of the PT. Then, the products are ranked with the probabilistic linguistic term set (PLTS) input, based on the proposed adjustable PT framework, in which the coefficients of negativity bias are derived from the consumer’s heuristic judgments. Finally, a real case on TripAdvisor.com and two simulation experiments are given to illustrate the validity of the proposed method.

Anchoring and adjustment effects on audit judgments: experimental evidence from Switzerland

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental biases. This paper provides background on the heuristics and biases approaches to decision-making to increase auditors' awareness of the anchoring and adjustment effects affecting audit judgments adversely.Design/methodology/approachThis study reports the results of an experimental research design analyzing the audit judgment of 85 auditors in Switzerland.FindingsBased on the results of the experiment, the results indicate evidence on the existence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in Swiss audit judgments. The authors could identify an influence of the audit company size, the auditors' experience and the auditors' knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic with regard to the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment.Research limitations/implicationsThe experimental tasks were relatively simple abstractions from the more complex analytical review situations faced by practicing auditors. Due to the small sample size, the authors cannot ensure representativeness of the results.Practical implicationsProfessional judgment is a skill that auditor acquires overtime, combined with experience and knowledge, that allows him to achieve reasonable judgments, being independent of other opinions and free from material biases in a given circumstance. Our results show that auditors who are aware of biases and heuristics are less prone to judgment biases.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to analyze the impact of auditors' explicit experience and knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic on the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment. Through a stronger awareness of cognitive biases, a professional skepticism can be enhanced.

Consequences of representativeness bias on SHM-based decision-making

Judging the state of a bridge based on SHM observations is an inference process, which should be rationally carried out using a logical approach. However, it is often observed that real-life decision makers depart from this ideal model of rationality, judge and decide using common sense, and privilege fast and frugal heuristics to rational analytic thinking. For instance, confusion between condition state and safety of a bridge is one of the most frequently observed examples in bridge management. The aim of this paper is to describe mathematically this observed biased judgement, a condition that is broadly described by Kahneman and Tversky’s representativeness heuristic. Particularly, the paper examines how this heuristic affects the interpretation of data, providing a deeper understanding of the differences between a method affected by cognitive biases and the classical rational approach. Based on the literature review, three different models reproducing an individual behaviour distorted by representativeness are identified. These models are applied to the case of a transportation manager who wrongly judges a particular bridge unsafe simply because deteriorated, regardless its actual residual load-carrying capacity. It is demonstrated that the application of any of the three heuristic judgment models correctly predicts that the manager will mistakenly judge the bridge as unsafe based on the observed condition state. It is not objective of the paper to suggest that representativeness should be used instead of rational logic, however, understanding how real-life managers actually behave is of paramount importance when setting a general policy for bridge maintenance.

Cognitive approach to analysis of regular packing of congruent objects on plane

New approach to investigate the two-dimensional regular packing of arbitrary geometric objects (GOs) using cognitive visualization is presented. GO correspond to congruent non-convex polygons with their associated coordinate system. The origins of these coordinate systems are accepted by object poles. The approach considered is based on cognitive processes that are forms of heuristic judgments. According to the first heuristic judgment, regular packing of congruent GOs on the plane have a honeycomb structure, that is, each GO contacts six neighboring GO, the poles of which are vertices of the pole hexagon in honeycomb construction of packing. Based on the visualization of the honeycomb constructions a second heuristic judgment is obtained, according to which inside the hexagon of poles there are fragments of three GOs. The consequence is a third heuristic judgment on the plane covering density with regular packings of congruent GOs. With the help of cognitive visualization it is established that inside the hexagon of poles there are fragments of exactly three objects. The fourth heuristic judgment is related to the proposal of a triple lattice packing for regular packing of congruent GOs.

Investment priorities of northeast Indian SMEs family business entrepreneurs based on BOCR aspects

The study proposed a multi-criterion decision model from benefit, opportunity, cost, risk aspects of SME family business to develop logical investment priorities for northeast Indian family entrepreneurs. The data was collected from 368 northeast entrepreneurs and analytical hierarchy process was applied to develop weights and priorities of every criteria and sub-criteria. The study found employment opportunity; business growth; reputation; stability and succession planning as top priorities. The findings provide heuristic judgment for entrepreneurs and infer to entrepreneurs while taking strategic investment decisions and also to local governments, policymakers, and industrialists. Further, the limitations and research directions were presented.

Origins of Algorithmic Instabilities in Crowdsourced Ranking

Crowdsourcing systems aggregate decisions of many people to help users quickly identify high-quality options, such as the best answers to questions or interesting news stories. A long-standing issue in crowdsourcing is how option quality and human judgement heuristics interact to affect collective outcomes, such as the perceived popularity of options. We address this limitation by conducting a controlled experiment where subjects choose between two ranked options whose quality can be independently varied. We use this data to construct a model that quantifies how judgement heuristics and option quality combine when deciding between two options. The model reveals popularity-ranking can be unstable: unless the quality difference between the two options is sufficiently high, the higher quality option is not guaranteed to be eventually ranked on top. To rectify this instability, we create an algorithm that accounts for judgement heuristics to infer the best option and rank it first. This algorithm is guaranteed to be optimal if data matches the model. When the data does not match the model, however, simulations show that in practice this algorithm performs better or at least as well as popularity-based and recency-based ranking for any two-choice question. Our work suggests that algorithms relying on inference of mathematical models of user behavior can substantially improve outcomes in crowdsourcing systems.

Hotel review framing and the “law of small numbers”

AbstractOnline booking engines are the primary method by which consumers purchase hotels stays. Thus, understanding the best ways to present hotel information to consumers is critical. An experimental study investigated how review framing, presentation format, and number of reviews influence consumers' intention to book. The findings reveal that the way hotel reviews and ratings are presented plays a significant role in consumers' booking intentions and hotel evaluations. The results demonstrated that positive framing, abstract numerical presentation, and a small number of reviews result in more favorable evaluations and intentions than negative framing, concrete presentation, and a large number of reviews. However, these variables influence different outcomes at each stage of the purchasing process. Practically, this study aids hoteliers by providing approaches to increase bookings and attract consumers. Theoretically, it demonstrates how the presentation of ratings information leads to judgmental heuristics that can bias consumers' judgments throughout the decision process.

Availability, Affect, and Decisions to Seek Information about Cancer Risks.

How do people decide which risks they want to get informed about? The present study examines the role of the availability and affect heuristics on these decisions. Participants (N = 100, aged 19-72 years) selected for which of 23 cancers they would like to receive an information brochure, reported the number of occurrences of each type of cancer in their social circle (availability), and rated their dread reaction to each type of cancer (affect); they also made relative judgments about which of 2 cancers was more common in Germany (judged risk). Participants tended to choose information brochures for those cancers for which they indicated a higher availability within their social networks as well as for cancers they dreaded. Mediation analyses suggested that the influence of availability and affect on information choice was only partly mediated by judged risk. The results demonstrate the operation of 2 key judgment heuristics (availability and affect), previously studied in risk perception, also in decisions about information choice. We discuss how our findings can be used to identify which risks are likely to fall from people's radar.

Open to offers, but resisting requests: How the framing of anchors affects motivation and negotiated outcomes.

Abundant research has established that first proposals can anchor negotiations and lead to a first-mover advantage. The current research developed and tested a motivated anchor adjustment hypothesis that integrates the literatures on framing and anchoring and highlights how anchoring in negotiations differs in significant ways from standard decision-making contexts. Our research begins with the premise that first proposals can be framed as either an offer of resources (e.g., I am offering my A for your B) that highlights gains versus a request for resources (e.g., I am requesting your B for my A) that highlights losses to a responder. We propose that this framing would affect the concession aversion of responders and ultimately the negotiated outcomes. We predicted that when a first proposal is framed as an offer, the well-documented anchoring and first-mover advantage effect would emerge because offers do not create high levels of concession aversion. In contrast, because requests highlight what the responder has to give up, we predicted that opening requests would produce concession aversion and eliminate and even reverse the first-mover advantage. Across 5 experiments, the classic first-mover advantage in negotiations was moderated by the framing of proposals because anchor framing affected concession aversion. The studies highlight how motivational forces (i.e., concession aversion) play an important role in producing anchoring effects, which has been predominantly viewed through a purely cognitive lens. Overall, the findings highlight when and how motivational processes play a key role in both judgmental heuristics and mixed-motive decision-making. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).