Risk Judgments Research Articles

Are risk assessment tools more accurate than unstructured judgments in predicting violent, any, and sexual offending? A meta-analysis of direct comparison studies.

We conducted a pre-registered meta-analysis of studies that directly compared the predictive validity of risk assessment tools to unstructured judgments of risk for violent, any, or sexual offending. A total of 31 studies, containing 169 effect sizes from 45,673 risk judgments, met inclusion criteria. Based on the results of three-level mixed-effects meta-regression models, the predictive validity of total scores on risk assessment tools was significantly higher than that of unstructured judgments for predictions of violent, any, and sexual offending. Tools continued to outperform unstructured judgments after accounting for risk of bias. This finding was also robust to variations in population, assessment context, and outcome measurement. Although this meta-analysis provides support for the use of risk assessment tools, it also highlights limitations and gaps that future research should address.

Real-time assessment of ship collision risk using image processing techniques

The poor quality or the miss of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data may cause erroneous judgement of the potential navigational risk. Therefore, this study proposes a real-time framework for assessing ship collision risk using onboard video data in order to improve the risk perception ability of navigators. Firstly, the Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) attention mechanism and the K-means algorithm are simultaneously utilized for the framework to enhance the multi-scale ship detection capability. The Deep-SORT is employed to complete multi-ship feature matching. Secondly, the distances between two ships and their speeds are measured using the pinhole imaging principle based on the ship visual feature extraction results. Moreover, the ship distance-speed correction method is designed to improve the reliability of estimated results. Finally, the effectiveness of the framework is validated using naturalistic driving data from the “He Hua Hai” ship. The results show that the proposed framework could demonstrate an excellent performance in assessing ship collision risk using the onboard video data. The proposed framework could help precisely detect and promptly provide warnings about potential ship collision risks. This could help prevent catastrophic accidents that pose a threat to oceans and coasts, particularly in situations when AIS data proves to be unreliable or ineffective.

A nomogram with Nottingham prognostic index for predicting locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients.

The Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) has been shown to negatively impact survival in breast cancer (BC). However, its ability to predict the locoregional recurrence (LRR) of BC remains still unclear. This study aims to determine whether a higher NPI serves as a significant predictor of LRR in BC. In total, 238 patients with BC were included in this analysis, and relevant clinicopathological features were collected. Correlation analysis was performed between NPI scores and clinicopathological characteristics. The optimal nomogram model was determined by Akaike information criterion. The accuracy of the model's predictions was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves), calibration curves and goodness of fit tests. The clinical application value was assessed through decision curve analysis. Six significant variables were identified, including age, body mass index (BMI), TNM stage, NPI, vascular invasion, perineural invasion (P<0.05). Two prediction models, namely a TNM-stage-based model and an NPI-based model, were constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) for the TNM-stage- and NPI-based models were 0.843 (0.785,0.901) and 0.830 (0.766,0.893) in training set and 0.649 (0.520,0.778) and 0.728 (0.610,0.846) in validation set, respectively. Both models exhibited good calibration and goodness of fit. The F-measures were 0.761vs 0.756 and 0.556 vs 0.696, respectively. Clinical decision curve analysis showed that both models provided clinical benefits in evaluating risk judgments based on the nomogram model. a higher NPI is an independent risk factor for predicting LRR in BC. The nomogram model based on NPI demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, offering potential clinical benefits. Therefore, it merits widespread adoption and application.

Situational Awareness and Safety: Using Weather Information to Inform Decision-Making in Antarctic Environments

Abstract To avoid hazards, manage risks, and successfully conduct their outdoor activities, people in Antarctica make weather-related decisions every day. Research on Antarctic weather information use and related decision-making, services, and user needs is limited. In a mixed-methods study, we explored how people use weather information to manage activities and weather in Antarctic regions. Survey (n = 62) and interview (n = 35) participants were deployed with National Antarctic Programs and tourism operators across a range of roles, activities, and locations. How and when weather information was used depended on people’s decision contexts, location, activities, previous experience and knowledge. Experienced participants used weather information, their experience, and local knowledge to form and maintain their situation awareness. Situation awareness influenced participant's decision-making, risk assessment, and planning processes and enabled people's adaptation to changing circumstances, hazards, and weather conditions. As a part of these processes, forecasts were used primarily for pre-activity planning and scheduling decisions. Tasks were prioritized and planned based on suitable weather conditions, experience, and safety. During activities, real-time weather data, personal observations, and experience were important for updating situation awareness, risk judgments, decision-making, and maintaining safety. Levels of weather service provision and training varied and were often not fit-for-purpose, which may adversely impact people's safety in Antarctic regions. Results contribute to our understanding of polar weather user needs, and how we may support people to develop the experience, knowledge, and non-technical skills necessary for identifying and avoiding hazards and safe, efficient, and successful outdoor activities.

Slow and steady or fast and furious: how movement speed in the digital medium impacts consumers’ risk judgments

PurposeFueled by the soaring popularity of the digital medium, consumers are increasingly relying on dynamic images to inform their decisions. However, little is known about how changes in the presentation of movement impacts these decisions. The purpose of this paper is to document whether and how movement speed–a fundamental characteristic of dynamic images in the digital medium–influences consumers' risk judgments and subsequent decisions.Design/methodology/approachThree experimental studies investigate the impact of movement speed displayed in the digital medium, focusing on different risk-laden domains including health (pilot study), gambling (Study 1) and stock market decisions (Study 2).FindingsThe authors find that faster movement speed displayed in the digital medium elevates consumers’ feelings of risk and elicits cautionary actions in response. The authors reveal a mechanism for this effect, showing that faster movement reduces feelings of control over outcomes, which predicts greater feelings of risk.Research limitations/implicationsFuture work could expand upon these findings by systematically examining whether certain individuals are more susceptible to movement speed effects in the digital medium. Research could also investigate whether different ways of experiencing movement speed (e.g. physical movement) similarly influence risk judgments and whether movement speed can have positive connotations outside of risky domains.Practical implicationsThe authors offer important insights to marketing practitioners and public policymakers seeking to guide consumers’ judgments and decisions in risk-laden contexts through the digital medium.Originality/valueBy showing how movement speed alters judgments in risk-laden contexts, the authors contribute to literature on risk perception and the growing body of literature examining how moving images shape consumers’ behaviors.

Inter-rater reliability of the Early Assessment Risk List Version 3 (EARL-V3) for children displaying antisocial behavior

BackgroundIdentification of risks is foundational to the development of strategies to prevent conduct problems in children. The Early Assessment Risk List Version 3 (EARL-V3) is a Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instrument designed for application to children exhibiting antisocial behavior. The revised EARL-V3 (2021) encourages users to be responsive to gender and cultural issues and is designed to assist in treatment planning. While previous versions of the EARL have undergone extensive testing, reliability has not been established for the new version. MethodsThe present study yields Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICCs) for the three EARL-V3 subscales and the total score. Additional analyses are based on Gwet’s AC1 method for examining individual items. Four rater pairs assessed a selection of 124 children (50 girls, 74 boys; six to 12 years). Case files included child and caregiver interviews and clinical assessments. ResultsWe found moderate to excellent agreement for two of the three subscales and the total score, and poor to moderate agreement for one subscale. The individual items ranged from fair to almost perfect agreement. The Overall Clinical Risk Judgement revealed fair to moderate inter-rater agreement. The results largely remained when analyzed based on gender. Some differences were seen for individual risk factors. ConclusionThe EARL-V3 has a good level of inter-rater reliability, comparable or superior to previous versions of the EARL and to other SPJ instruments.

Individual values and inductive risk: remotivating the Bayesian alternative

The argument from inductive risk has become widely accepted as good reason to reject the value-free ideal. The literature that follows is then focused on where inductive risk judgements are required and whose values ought to determine them. The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to offer motivation for aiming at the value-free ideal, and therefore avoiding inductive risk. To do so I show that there is a tension between principles in science ethics and value encroachment because of inductive risk. Secondly, I offer a renewed defence of Jeffrey’s response to the argument from inductive risk. By appealing to theories in epistemology about rational belief modelling, I argue that the Bayesian belief model offers a suitable alternative to current belief modelling in science, despite criticism that is either explicit in the literature or fairly expected to arise.

The impact of safety attitude on hazard identification and risk analysis: evidence from event-related potentials

ABSTRACT A questionnaire survey and an event-related potential (ERP) experiment were used to reveal the impact of safety attitudes on risk perception. The results revealed that during hazard identification, the N130 amplitude of subjects with negative safety attitude was significantly higher, which implied that subjects with negative safety attitude were more likely to feel confused. During risk analysis, subjects with positive safety attitude were more inclined to overestimate the probability and damage degree of risks; subjects with positive safety attitudes displayed higher P150 and late positive potential amplitudes, which indicated that subjects with positive safety attitudes devoted more attention to risks in the early stage of risk analysis and had a more intense affective response in the later period. The risk judgment ability of subjects with positive safety attitude was affected by time pressure, and they exhibited higher risk judgment accuracy only under no time pressure.

Assessing risk among women who perpetrate intimate partner abuse

ABSTRACT This paper presents a prospective evaluation of the predictive validity of three risk assessment instruments in a sample of Australian women identified by police as intimate partner abuse (IPA) perpetrators. Using a subsample from Spivak et al. (2020), 410 female IPA perpetrators were screened using the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR) and evaluated alongside two samples of 60 and 229 female IPA perpetrators assessed using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) and a modified version of the Lethality Screen respectively. Of the three instruments, the VP-SAFvR possessed indicators of effective discrimination (i.e. sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve) and predictive validity (i.e. positive predictive value, negative predictive value) on general IPA recidivism and its intended outcome of family or intimate partner abuse. The B-SAFER risk judgement similarly predicted its intended outcome of physical IPA recidivism, with notable indicators of discrimination and predictive validity. The results of the Modified Lethality Screen were conversely mixed on measures of discrimination and prediction for its intended outcome of severe IPA. The current findings suggest that these instruments function consistently for women and men who are identified by police as perpetrating family or intimate partner abuse.

Keep It Simple? Consumer Perceptions of Brand Simplicity and Risk

Evoking simplicity in marketing communications has become popular among marketing practitioners, but little is known about its effects on consumers and firms. The current work focuses on consumers’ perceptions of the simplicity or complexity of brands and a previously overlooked consequence of those perceptions. Results from six experiments and analysis of a proprietary customer satisfaction dataset from Consumer Reports (N = 147,600) show that when consumers think brands are simple, they judge them to be less likely to experience product or service failures. Although these lower risk judgments could be positive for brands, they can also lead consumers to punish simpler brands more in the event of failures. Results also suggest that consumers’ simplicity/complexity perceptions reflect the dimensionality of their mental representations of brands, and the relationship between simplicity and lower risk is attenuated when additional brand dimensionality is framed in terms of redundancy. The findings cast doubt on the degree to which evoking simplicity is a uniformly positive marketing strategy and encourage practitioners to more thoughtfully consider simplicity's implications for consumer and firm welfare.

Media exposure to climate change information and pro-environmental behavior: the role of climate change risk judgment

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB).MethodA cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18–79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB.ResultsStructural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB.ConclusionSince the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people’s well-being.

Risk and protective factors in risk assessment: Predicting inpatient aggression in adult males detained in a forensic mental health setting.

Structured clinical risk assessments represent a preferred means of assessing levels of aggression risk at different times and in different individuals. Increasing attention has been given to capturing protective factors, with sound risk assessment critical to high-secure forensic mental health care. The aim was to assess the predictive value of the HCR-20v3 for aggression risk and the long-term care pilot version of the SAPROF (the SAPROF-LC-pilot) in a high-secure forensic mental health inpatient population and to determine the incremental value of protective over risk factors.Participants were adult males detained in a high secure forensic mental health service, with a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia and/or personality disorder. The focus was on examining hospital based aggression (self- and other-directed) at two time points; up to 6 months (T1) and between 7 and 12 months (T2).The HCR-20V3 and SAPROF-LC-pilot demonstrated good predictive validity but with variability across subscales and aggression types/periods. Historical factors of the HCR-20V3 and External factors of the SAPROF-LC-pilot failed to predict, aside from a medium effect at T1 for verbal aggression and self-harm, for Historical factors. There was evidence for protective factors adding to prediction over risk factors alone, with the integration of protective and risk factors into a risk judgement particularly helpful in improving prediction accuracy.Protective factors contributed to risk estimates and particularly if integrated with risk factors. Combining risk and protective factors has clear predictive advantages, ensuring that protective factors are not supplementary but important to the aggression assessment process.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in the Context of Child Protection Decision Making

Abstract Uncertainty is a concept related to, but distinct from, risk. Risk has been defined as the portion of the continuum from complete certainty to total ignorance that can be estimated using tools of probability. Uncertainty, on the other hand lies in the portion of the continuum of knowability that is incalculable and uncontrollable. It is well established that estimating risk probabilistically in the child protection context is unreliable and prone to error under conditions of high uncertainty—particularly when making decisions on the long-term needs of a child. This is true whether risk is estimated using professional judgement, statistical algorithms or a combination of both. In other disciplines, tools have been developed that transition decision making away from the probabilistic reasoning associated with judgments of risk (the ‘Predict and Act’ paradigm) to procedures that do not rely on the probabilistic estimation of risk (the ‘Monitor and Adapt’ paradigm). A pragmatic approach to adapting existing assessment procedures developed within the Predict and Act paradigm to align more closely with the Monitor and Adapt approach is presented. It is suggested that a key component of such an adaptation would be integrating case formulation into routine child protection practice.

The Competency And Awareness Level Of Anti-Money Laundering &amp; Counter Financing Terrorism Risk Judgment Amongst Malaysian Banking Compliance Officers

The Competency And Awareness Level Of Anti-Money Laundering &amp; Counter Financing Terrorism Risk Judgment Amongst Malaysian Banking Compliance Officers

Risk perception and desire in decision-making: the case of Syrians’ sea migration to Europe

ABSTRACT Based on narrative interviews with Syrian refugees arriving in Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes involved in migration. It explores the interplay between the subjective factors such as risk perception and desire experienced by Syirans who took risky sea crossings. The primary analytical approach involves comparing the judgment of risk in one's own realized migration versus the potential migration of others. Participants who successfully crossed the sea and arrived in Europe considered their decisions valid, yet they would not recommend the same path to others. This contradiction can be explained by the significant role that the desire for a life change played in their decision-making, as it influenced their own risk assessment but was absent in their assessment of risk for others. The study further suggests that decision-making in risky migration is not solely about weighing the risks of staying versus leaving. Rather, it involves evaluating the worth of a desired life transformation against the perceived risks associated with the migratory journey.

Comparing perceptions of individuals who sexually offend against children versus adults.

We examined how the age of the victim influences the public's risk assessment and punishment attitudes for individuals who have sexually offended and whether actuarial feedback influences these ratings. (1) Risk ratings for child victim vignettes would be higher than ratings for adult victim vignettes. This effect would be driven by higher ratings for lower risk individuals. (2) Because of the increased stigma associated with individuals with child victim sexual abuse convictions, participants who rated this subgroup would be less likely than those who rated adult victim vignettes to revise their initial risk ratings. (3) Dispositional placements for the individuals in vignettes with child victims would be more punitive than for those with adult victims, both before and after feedback. Participants (N = 389, 18-77 years, 51.7% male, 73.0% White) read five vignettes of individuals incarcerated for a sexual offense at five different risk levels and with either child or adult victims. They made judgments about recidivism risk and postprison dispositions and then received actuarial feedback and made the ratings again. Risk ratings for child victim vignettes were higher than ratings for adult victim vignettes, particularly for cases of average risk and below (η²p = .17). Participants were equally likely to revise initial risk ratings for child and adult victim vignettes (η²p = .01). Dispositional placements for child victim vignettes were significantly more punitive than for adult victim vignettes both before and after feedback, especially for the lower risk individuals (η²p = .07). Although judgments of risk and disposition toward individuals who sexually offend can be adjusted regardless of victim type, there is a more severe bias against individuals with child victims. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparing the DSM-5 categorical model of personality disorders and the alternative model of personality disorders regarding clinician judgments of risk and outcome.

The goal of this study was to compare the predictive validity of the alternative model for personality disorders (AMPD) versus the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) Section II categorical model regarding clinician judgments about mental health outcomes. To do so, we instructed a national sample of 136 mental health professionals to provide clinical judgments on a random subset of four (out of a possible 12) case vignettes. For each case, they made a variety of diagnostic judgments corresponding to each model, as well as clinical outcome judgments (e.g., prognosis). Our analyses included hierarchical and individual regressions to compare the predictive value of each diagnostic system toward these clinical outcome judgments. We found that the AMPD predictors consistently added unique variance beyond the Section II predictors, whereas the Section II predictors were rarely incremental above the AMPD. Further, the AMPD judgments predicted outcome judgments very consistently (98.3% of regressions) compared to the Section II predictors (70% of regressions), and the single Criterion A judgment (level of personality functioning) was the strongest overall predictor. Finally, the categorical borderline personality disorder diagnoses from the two systems performed similarly in predicting clinical outcomes and agreed in 79% of cases. We interpreted our results to suggest that the AMPD is at least as effective, and by some measures more effective, than the DSM-5 categorical model at predicting clinician's judgment of outcomes in clinical cases. We conclude by discussing the value of this evidence in relation to the broader AMPD literature, as well as possible paths forward for the diagnosis of personality disorders. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Supplemental Material for Comparing the DSM-5 Categorical Model of Personality Disorders and the Alternative Model of Personality Disorders Regarding Clinician Judgments of Risk and Outcome

Supplemental Material for Comparing the DSM-5 Categorical Model of Personality Disorders and the Alternative Model of Personality Disorders Regarding Clinician Judgments of Risk and Outcome

Fraud risk judgments performance: The role of audit technology, task structure, and auditor competence

This study aims to examine the factors affecting auditor performance in fraud risk judgment, specifically audit technology, task structure, and auditor competence. It explores the interaction effects of audit technology, task structure, and auditor competence on fraud risk judgments performance. Employing a survey method and partial least square analysis responses from 59 state auditors at the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) Representative Office in Southeast Sulawesi Province. The results indicate that audit technology, task structure, and auditor competence each have a positive and significant impact on fraud risk judgment performance. However, the combined interaction effect of audit technology, task structure, and auditor competence does not significantly influence fraud risk judgments performance. Given these findings, further investigation is warranted to enhance our understanding of these tasks and to refine audit technology specifications for improved fraud risk evaluation.

Intuitive toxicology in the 21st century-Bridging the perspectives of the public and risk assessors in Europe.

Three decades ago, several articles on the subjectivity in chemical risk judgments (i.e., labeled "intuitive toxicology") measured the divide between the public and toxicologists with different backgrounds regarding the validity of predicting health effects based on in vivo studies. Similar divides with impacts on societal discourse and chemical risk assessment practices might exist concerning alternative toxicity testing methods (i.e., in vitro and in silico). However, studies to date have focused either on the public's views of in vivo or stem cell testing or on experts' views of in vivo testing and potential alternatives (i.e., toxicologists and medical students), which do not allow for a direct investigation of potential divides. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted two online surveys, involving members of the German-speaking public in Switzerland and European human health risk assessors, respectively. This article presents the results of these two surveys regarding the divide in the public's and risk assessors' perspectives on risk assessment based on in vivo, in vitro, and in silico testing. Particularly, the survey with the risk assessors highlights that, beyond scientific and regulatory barriers, alternatives to in vivo testing may encounter individual hurdles, such as higher uncertainty associated with them. Understanding and addressing these hurdles will be crucial to facilitate the integration of new approach methodologies into chemical risk assessment practices as well as a successful transition toward next-generation risk assessment, bringing us closer to a fit-for-purpose and more efficient regulatory landscape.