Joint Point Regression Analysis Research Articles

Disparities in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and cardiometabolic conditions in low and lower middle-income countries: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

ObjectiveMetabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and cardiometabolic conditions affect populations across economic strata. Nevertheless, there are limited epidemiological studies addressing these diseases in low (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (lower MICs). Therefore, an analysis of the trend of MASLD and cardiometabolic conditions in these countries is necessary. MethodsFrom 2000 to 2019, jointpoint regression analysis was employed to calculate the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cardiometabolic conditions including MASLD, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), dyslipidemia (DLP), hypertension (HTN), obesity, peripheral artery disease (PAD), atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/AFL), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and chronic kidney disease from HTN and T2DM, in LICs and lower MICs (according to the World Bank Classification 2019) using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data. ResultsAmong the eleven cardiometabolic conditions, MASLD (533.65 million), T2DM (162.96 million), and IHD (76.81 million) had the highest prevalence in LICs and Lower MICs in 2019. MASLD represented the largest proportion of global prevalence in these countries (43 %). From 2000 to 2019, mortality in LICs and lower MICs increased in all cardiometabolic conditions, with obesity-related mortality having the highest increase (+134 %). During this timeframe, there were increased age-standardized death rates (ASDR) from obesity, PAD, and AF/AFL. From all conditions, the DALYs-to-prevalence ratio was higher in LICs and lower MICs than the global average. ConclusionThe burden of MASLD and cardiometabolic conditions is increasing worldwide, with LICs and lower MICs experiencing higher (DALYs) disability per prevalence. As these conditions are preventable, counteracting these trends requires not only the modification of ongoing actions but also the strategizing of immediate interventions.

Esophageal cancer in the United States: A 21-year mortality analysis (1999-2020).

e23258 Background: Esophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States, with a mere 20% survival rate in the first five years, making it a significant public health concern. Considering the lack of comprehensive evaluations of mortality trends that are undergoing substantial transformations on a global scale, this study aims to provide an update on the mortality rates of esophageal cancer and its trends in the United States. Methods: The mortality trends among adults with EC were analyzed using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research (CDC WONDER) database, where EC was presented as a contributing or the underlying cause of death. Code C15 “Malignant Neoplasms of Esophagus” in the International Classification of Disease, tenth revision (ICD-10) was used to identify the data. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 people were extracted. Annual percent changes (APCs) in AAMRs with 95% CI were obtained using joint point regression analysis across different demographic (sex, race/ethnicity, and age) and geographic (state, urban-rural, and regional) subgroups. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, 309,725 documented deaths were attributed to esophageal cancer. The overall AAMR decreased from 1999-2020 (6.69 to 5.68). Males had higher consistently higher AAMRs than females (10.96 vs. 2.24). NH White had the highest overall AAMR (6.88), followed by NH Black (6.46), NH American Indian (4.95), Hispanic or Latino (3.31), and NH Asian or Pacific Islander (2.57). CMRs also increased with advancing age and were greatest in individuals over the age of 85 years. AAMR also varied by region (overall AAMR: Midwest: 7.18; Northeast: 6.75; South: 6.07; West: 5.76), and non-metropolitan areas had higher AAMR (non-core areas: 7.09; micropolitan areas: 7.19) than metropolitan areas (large central metropolitan areas: 5.75; large fringe areas: 6.33). The states in the upper 90th percentile of esophageal cancer-related AAMR were Vermont, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Maine, and exhibited an approximately two-fold increase in AAMRs, compared to states falling in the lower 10th percentile. Conclusions: Over the last two decades, there has been an overall decline in mortality related to EC in the United States. However, demographic and geographic discrepancies in EC-related mortality persist, necessitating additional exploration and development of specifically directed treatments.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in Spain between 1999 and 2019

IntroductionMortality from COPD has decreased in Spain in recent years, but it is unknown whether this decline has been homogeneous among the different regions. MethodsFrom the Statistical Portal of the Ministry of Health of Spain we obtained the age-adjusted mortality rates/100,000 inhabitants for men and women in Spain and the Autonomous Communities for the years 1999–2019, using the coding of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 10, sections J40–J44). With the adjusted rates we performed a jointpoint regression analysis to estimate an annual percentage change (APC), as well as identify possible points of trend change. Statistical significance was considered for a value of p<0.05. ResultsDuring the study period, COPD mortality rates adjusted in Spain decreased from 28.77 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 1999 to 12.14 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2019. We observed a linear decline in COPD mortality in men at national level of −3.67% per year (95% CI −4.1 to −3.4; p<0.001), with differences between the Autonomous Communities. Mortality in women also experienced a decrease in mortality in two phases, with a first period from 1999 to 2006 with a fall of −6.8% per year (95% CI −8.6 to −5.0; p<0.001) and a second period from 2006 to 2019 with a decrease in mortality of −2.1% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.3; p<0.001), with again differences between the Autonomous Communities. ConclusionMortality rates from COPD have decreased heterogeneously among the different Autonomous Communities in both men and women.

Abstract 18888: Demographic and Racial Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Related Mortality in Patients With Cancer

Introduction: We aim to assess the demographic and racial trends of mortality associated with Ischemic heart disease in patients diagnosed with neoplasia, between 1999 and 2020. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for the Epidemiological Research database (CDC-WONDER) was conducted to investigate the trends in mortality associated with Ischemic heart disease (ICDcodes - I20-I25) in patients with diagnosis of neoplasm or cancer during the time of death (ICD codes C00-D48). The study calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 individuals and corresponding annual percentage changes (APC), along with 95% confidence intervals, using jointpoint regression analysis. Demographic and racial trends were evaluated. Results: 359,383 Ischemic heart disease-related deaths occurred in cancer patients from 1999 to2020. Annual trends show that the AAMR decreased from 8.3 (95% CI 8.2-8.4) in 1999 to 3.3(95% CI 3.3-3.4) in 2020. The overall AAMR from 1999-2020 had an Annual PercentageChange (APC) decrease of -5 (95% CI: -5.3 to -4.7). When stratified by sex, males had a worseAAMR at 7.6 (95% CI: 0.6-0.6), and females were found to have an AAMR of 3.1 (95% CI: 0.5-0.5). When stratified by ethnicity, AAMR was highest among African Americans at 5.4 (95% CI:5.3-5.4), followed by white at 4.9 (95% CI 4.9-5.0), followed by American Indian or Alaskan Native at 2.7 (95% CI 2.6-2.9), followed by Asian or PacificIslander at 2.5 (95 % CI 2.5-2.6). Conclusions: In the United States, there has been a general decrease in IHD-associated Mortality in cancer patients from 1999 to 2020. Similar to the IHD-related mortality in the general population. Our data shows that the AAMR is worse in men, black population. In the setting of worse AAMR in specific populations, further research is needed to identify the causes and potential strategies to improve AAMR in cancer patients.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in Spain between 1999 and 2019

IntroductionMortality from COPD has decreased in Spain in recent years, but it is unknown whether this decline has been homogeneous among the different regions. MethodsFrom the Statistical Portal of the Ministry of Health of Spain we obtained the age-adjusted mortality rates/100,000 inhabitants for men and women in Spain and the Autonomous Communities for the years 1999–2019, using the coding of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 10, sections J40–J44). With the adjusted rates we performed a jointpoint regression analysis to estimate an annual percentage change (APC), as well as identify possible points of trend change. Statistical significance was considered for a value of p<0.05. ResultsDuring the study period, COPD mortality rates adjusted in Spain decreased from 28.77 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 1999 to 12.14 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2019. We observed a linear decline in COPD mortality in men at national level of −3.67% per year (95% CI −4.1 to −3.4; p<0.001), with differences between the Autonomous Communities. Mortality in women also experienced a decrease in mortality in two phases, with a first period from 1999 to 2006 with a fall of −6.8% per year (95% CI −8.6 to −5.0; p<0.001) and a second period from 2006 to 2019 with a decrease in mortality of −2.1% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.3; p<0.001), with again differences between the Autonomous Communities. ConclusionMortality rates from COPD have decreased heterogeneously among the different Autonomous Communities in both men and women.

Temporal trends of sepsis-related mortality in China, 2006–2020: a population-based study

BackgroundThe scarcity of sepsis epidemiologic data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) hampered estimation of regional and global burden of the disease, and provided limited guidance for policy makers. We aimed to characterize and analyze the temporal trends of sepsis-related mortality in China, by population groups, underlying causes of death, geographic regions, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels.MethodsSepsis-related deaths were identified from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) of China from 2006 to 2020. Trends of sepsis-related mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), stratified by age, sex, underlying diseases, and regions were analyzed using the Jointpoint regression analysis. We investigated the association of SDI with trends of sepsis-related mortality.ResultsIn 2020, sepsis was estimated to be responsible for 986,929 deaths and 17.1 million YLLs in China. Age-standardized sepsis-related mortality significantly declined from 130.2 (95%CI, 129.4–131) per 100,000 population in 2006 to 76.6 (76.3–76.9) in 2020. Age-standardized YLLs decreased from 2172.7 (2169.4–2176) per 100,000 population in 2006 to 1271 (1269.8–1272.2) in 2020. Substantial variations of sepsis-related mortality and YLLs were observed between population groups and regions, with higher burden in males, the elderly, and western China. An inverse relation was noted between SDI and sepsis-related mortality or YLLs.ConclusionsDespite declining trends of age-standardized mortality and YLLs of sepsis in China, significant disparities between population groups and regions highlight a need for targeted policies and measures to close the gaps and improve the outcome of sepsis.

Second primary colorectal cancer in adults: a SEER analysis of incidence and outcomes

BackgroundAt present, there was no large epidemiological study exploring the actual incidence and survival of second primary colorectal cancer (spCRC). The different characteristics and survival of patients with spCRC and initial primary colorectal cancer (ipCRC) still need to be elucidated. In addition, the factors leading to different survival status of spCRC and ipCRC were still unclear. Our study plan to explore the annual incidence trend of spCRC as well as the factors influencing the occurrence and survival outcome of spCRC.MethodsThis cohort study analyzed the data of 4680 spCRC patients and 330,937 initial primary colorectal cancer (ipCRC) patients. Whether patients had spCRC and whether spCRC patients survived or died were regarded as outcomes. The annual incidence of spCRC from 2004 to 2016 was analyzed by Jointpoint regression analysis. The truncation points were found, and the annual percentage change (APC) of each segment was calculated to explore the trend of spCRC change in the United States. Univariate and multivariable cox regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with the occurrence and prognosis of spCRC patients.ResultsThe total incidence of spCRC was decreased during 2000–2016 on the whole. The overall incidence of spCRC was lowered in both males and females despite 2013–2014, in the left colon, right colon, rectum and others. The incidence of spCRC was decreased in both 18–49 years’ people and ≥ 50 years’ people during 2000–2016, and the incidence of spCRC in the ≥ 50 years’ people group was higher than those of 18–49 years. Insured (OR = 0.867 (0.778–0.966), initial primary site of other digestive (OR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.42–0.50), rectum (OR = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.66–0.82), or right colon (OR = 0.73, 95%CI: 0.68–0.79), N 1 stage (OR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.76–0.99), M 1 stage (OR = 0.49, 95%CI: 0.30–0.80), AJCC II stage (OR = 0.70, 95%CI: 0.60–0.82), AJCC III stage (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.56–0.84), and radiation (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.57–0.83) were associated with the risk of spCRC. At the end of follow-up, 2,246 spCRC patients were survived and 2,434 spCRC patients were dead. Patients with spCRC had poor survival probability than patients with ipCRC. Older age (HR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.02–1.03), male (HR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.04–1.23), Black (HR = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.06–1.35), uninsured (HR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.16–1.59), Signet ring cell carcinoma (HR = 1.64, 95%CI: 1.19–2.25), T4 stage (HR = 1.63, 95%CI: 1.32–2.01), N2 stage (HR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.08–1.72), M1 stage (HR = 4.51, 95%CI: 2.00–10.18), AJCC III (HR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.08–1.98), and radiation (HR = 1.82, 95%CI: 1.43–2.33) were associated with increased risk of mortality in spCRC patients.ConclusionThe incidence of spCRC was decreased except in people with initial primary tumor grade IV and those aged 15–39 years. The overall survival of spCRC patients was lower than ipCRC patients. Cancer patients with older age, high tumor grade, TNM stage, and AJCC stage should be caution to the occurrence of spCRC and timely interventions should be provided for spCRC patients to improve their outcomes.

Current status, trends, and predictions in the burden of silicosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

Silicosis, a severe lung disease caused by inhaling silica dust, predominantly affects workers in industries such as mining and construction, leading to a significant global public health challenge. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current disease burden of silicosis and to predict the development trend of silicosis in the future the world by extracting data from the GBD database. We extracted and analyzed silicosis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The association between the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and the burden of age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALYs has been examined at the regional level. Jointpoint regression analysis has been also performed to evaluate global burden trends of silicosis from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis has also been projected to predict future the burden of silicosis from 2019 to 2044. In 2019, global ASRs for silicosis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs were 5.383, 1.650, 0.161, and 7.872%, respectively which are lower than that in 1990. The populations of 45-59 age group were more susceptible to silicosis, while those aged 80 or above suffered from higher mortality and DALY risks. In 2019, the most impacted nations by the burden of silicosis included China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Chile. From 1990 to 2019, most regions observed a declining burden of silicosis. An "M" shaped association between SDI and ASRs of DALYs for silicosis was observed from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort analysis forecasted a decreasing trend of the burden of silicosis from 2019 to 2044. Despite the overall decline in the global silicosis burden from 1990 to 2019, some regions witnessed a notable burden of this disease, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Our results may provide a reference for the subsequent development of appropriate management strategies.

Epidemiological characteristics of suicide mortality in Turkey and trend over the years, 2007-2019

Objective: Suicide is an important public health problem today. Accurate, complete, timely, and rapid registration and evaluation of data about suicide will form the basis for preventive interventions to be developed. This study aims to determine the epidemiological features of suicide mortality in Turkey between 2007-2019 and examine the trend of suicide mortality rates. Methods: In this study, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) data was used, all deaths related to suicide in Turkey between 2007-2019 were analyzed. The change in age-adjusted suicide-related mortality rates over time was evaluated by Jointpoint regression analysis. Results: Between 2007 and 2019, the age standardised suicide-related mortality rates in males increased by an average of 1.3 percent annually, and this change was statistically significant (p<0.05). In females, this value decreased by an average of 2.6 percent annually in the same period, and this change was statistically significant, too (p<0.05). There was no statistically significant change in total. In 2019, the male/female ratio in age standardised suicide-related mortality rates was 3.4. However, in the 0-14 age group, the rate was similar for females and males. Conclusion: While it decreases in the world, the suicide mortality rates in Turkey do not decrease. The increase in suicide mortality seen in males is noteworthy. In females, the 0-14 age group is seen as risky. Preventive programs and regulations primarily for risky groups are essential in combating this important public health problem.

Suicide attempt-related emergency department visits among adolescents: a nationwide population-based study in Korea, 2016–2019

BackgroundThe incidence of adolescent suicide in Korea is increasing; however, nationwide data regarding short-term prediction of suicide attempts (SAs) is still limited. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence of SA-related annual emergency department (ED) visits among adolescents in Korea from 2016 to 2019 and to summarize the corresponding demographic and clinical characteristics based on the dispositions of SA-related ED visits.MethodsMost referral hospitals provide relevant essential ED information to the National Emergency Medical Center through the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS). We analyzed NEDIS data on adolescent visits (aged < 20 years) for a 4-year period from 2016 to 2019. Patients were classified into the discharge and hospitalization groups for comparison, and jointpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years in which there was a change in annual percentage change (APC) in age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of SA-related ED visits. The characteristics of patients in the discharge group and hospitalization group subgroups were also compared.ResultsThe APC in the incidence rate of SA-related ED visits in the 4-year study period revealed a 35.61% increase. The incidence rate increase was higher among females (APC: 46.26%) than among males (APC: 17.95%). Moreover, the incidence rate increased faster in mid-adolescence patients (APC: 51.12%) than in late-adolescence patients (APC: 26.98%). The proportion of poisoning as the SA method was 69.7% in the hospitalization group and 34.5% in the discharge group (p < 0.001).DiscussionOur findings suggest that an increase in the number of SA-related ED visits among female and mid-adolescent patients represented the largest increase in SA-related ED visits from 2016 to 2019. Accordingly, evidence-based suicide prevention programs need to be customized based on sex and age, and further diversification of health care systems is needed through analysis of the characteristics of the dispositions of SA-related ED visits.

Time Trend of Overweight and Obesity in Adults from Rio Branco, Acre, Western Brazilian Amazon (2006-2020).

This study aimed to analyze overweight trend and obesity in adults from Rio Branco, Acre, Western Brazilian Amazon, from 2006 to 2020. This is a time series study, with data from Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). To estimate annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals, the software Jointpoint Regression Analysis v.4.6.0.0., was used. In Rio Branco, overweight prevalence ranged from 44.0% in 2006 to 58.9% in 2020, with a bigger frequency among men than that among women. Obesity prevalence has increased from 12.5% in 2006 to 21.4% in 2020, similar between both sexes. From 2006 to 2020, overweight APC was 5.2% (95% CI: 1.4; 9.1) by 2010, and decreased to 1.3% by 2020. Public policies to control obesity and its risks must be both, implemented as strengthened.

Primary Liver Cancer in Golestan Province, Northeastern Iran: 13-Year Experience of Golestan Population-Based Cancer Registry (GPCR).

Liver cancer (LC) is among the most common and fatal cancers worldwide. A four-fold increasing trend is reported for LC age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in Iran within 1990-2015. In the present study, we aimed to report the incidence rate of LC during the 13-year establishment of the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR). Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100000 person-years was calculated using CanReg5 software. The Joint point regression analysis was used to assess the temporal trends in incidence rate of LC. During the study period, GPCR registered 575 of LC cases, of which 373 (64.9%) were men and 297 (51.6%) lived in rural areas. The mean (SD) age of LC in men and women were 60.3 (17.2) and 58.0 (17.1), respectively. The ASIR of LC was significantly higher in men than women (4.7 vs. 2.6; P value<0.01) and a minimal increasing trend in LC incidence was observed in both sexes. The incidence rate of LC was significantly higher in rural areas compared to the urbans (3.91 vs. 3.40; P value=0.04). In the last 13 years, rural population had a significant increasing trend in ASIR of LC (average annual percent change [AAPC]=7.85, P value=0.005). LC was more prevalent in men among both urban and rural populations. The results showed a significant increasing trend in rural areas that requires Golestan health care system to take action in controlling the burden of LC in rural areas.

What People Search for When Browsing “Doctor Google.” An Analysis of Search Trends in Italy after the Law on Pain

Italy adopted a law on chronic pain in March 2010, which focused on detection and management of this symptom, that affects approximately 25% of the population. The aim of this study is to analyze the interest of the Italian population in palliative care and chronic pain and to understand whether the Law 38/2010 made an impact on the internet search on chronic pain. Five research parameters were included using Google Trends (chronic pain, anti-inflammatory drugs, opioids, fibromyalgia, medical cannabis) from 2004 to 2019 using “joint point regression analysis.” Comparisons of annual relative search volume (ARSV), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and temporal patterns were analyzed to assess loss or gain of interest in research of all the terms after adopting Law 38/2010; collected data were analyzed using Kruskall-Wallis test. The research trend of almost every word increased in time (AAPC > 0) with significant inflexion points after issuing law on chronic pain management in March 2010. Our results suggest the relevance of internet search engines, like “Doctor Google,” to translate and share knowledge about specific conditions, diseases, and treatment alternatives, with a call to a raise in authoritative scientific voices on the topic, especially when it comes to widespread conditions like chronic pains.

Breast Cancer Incidence Trends in Isfahan Province Compared with those in England over the Period 2001-2013.

Background:Figures from Iranian cancer registries indicate that Isfahan ranks first in female breast cancer incidence. Although few previous studies have examined whether the breast cancer incidence trend in Isfahan province has increased over a given period of time, this study employed a joint point regression analysis to answer the same question. Moreover, it compared the data of Isfahan province, from a developing country, with those of England, as a representative of developed countries, and tried to explain the causes of the differences observed between the trends.Methods:This repeated cross-sectional study was conducted on the data of 6057 women in Isfahan province and of 141,011 women in England with breast cancer over the years 2001–2013. The incidence rates were calculated using direct standardization method and based on the 2013 standard European population. For an analysis of the trends in breast cancer incidence rates, Joint Point Regression program, version 4.3.1.0, released in April 2016, was employed.Results:The mean age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was calculated to be 34.7 per100,000 population over the years 2001 to 2013, which indicated an increase from 22 to 68 in Isfahan province. The corresponding mean ASR for England has also risen from 147.5 to 170.1 per 100,000 women during the same time period. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for Isfahan and England were also calculated to be 9.6 and 1.1, respectively. This indicated an increasing trend in breast cancer incidence rates for Isfahan province over the period in question.Conclusions:The drastic discrepancy in breast cancer incidence rates between these two regions may be attributed to differences in an improved cancer registry system in Iran and women's developing awareness of the cancer over time.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pornography habits: a global analysis of Google Trends.

As the COVID-19 spread globally, social distancing, self-isolation/quarantine, and national lockdowns have become crucial to control the pandemic. However, these measures may also lead to increases in social isolation, loneliness, and stress, which can alter the consumption of pornography habits. The aim of the study was thus to explore the interest pattern in pornography and coronavirus-themed pornography during the COVID-19 outbreak. Google Trends® was employed to determine the most popular porn websites (Porn, XNXX, PornHub, xVideos, and xHamster), and coronavirus-themed pornography worldwide and in six nations with different COVID-19 outbreak and self-isolation recommendations. We analyzed every search trend on Google® from January 9, 2020 to May 25, 2020 using “joint point regression analysis”. Comparisons of week relative search volume (WRSV) and temporal patterns were analyzed to assess the change of interest in search terms during nations lockdowns. Paired t-test was used to compare WRSV values among the porn websites during the national lockdowns and the equivalent timespan of the weeks in the previous 4 years. The research trend of almost every keyword increased with significant inflection points for those nations with a straight “stay at home orders” (China, Italy, Spain, and France). “PornHub” and “Porn” showed the highest increase of interest worldwide with an average weekend percentage change (AWPC) of 4.9 and 3.8, respectively. The mean WRSV for keywords in USA and Sweden did not show a similar increase as the other nations. The WRSV percentage change with the historical data had a peak during the straight nations’ lockdowns (p < 0.01). All the nations had a significant increase in WRSV coronavirus-themed pornography for each keyword (p < 0.01) with an AWPC, ranging worldwide between 18.5 and 61.8 (p < 0.01), after the beginning of self-quarantine. As strengths this study uses a big data technology to collect worldwide trend of interest, however, data are anonymous and do not allow analysis of subpopulation groups. In conclusion, we demonstrated an increased interest in pornography and coronavirus-themed pornography after the outbreak of COVID-19 in nations with a straight “stay at home orders”.

Trends in ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in Europe: an observational study from 1990–2017

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Previously, we identified a growing disparity between Western and Eastern European countries for mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). Purpose To describe current trends in mortality from IHD and CVD. Methods IHD and CVD age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for European countries between 1990–2017 were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Edition codes. Jointpoint regression analysis was used to describe trends over this period. Results Between 1990–2017, IHD mortality declined in all included countries except Croatia (+3% in males and +23% in females). Largest mortality improvements were generally seen in Western European countries, including the Netherlands, UK and Sweden, which saw greater than 65% improvements for both sexes. Estonia was a notable exception, which, after the Netherlands, demonstrated the second highest improvement in mortality (−69% in males, −74% in females). Hungary and Greece saw the smallest improvements in IHD mortality (approximately −12% to −27%). Results of jointpoint regression analysis for selected European countries are shown in Figure 1. In 2017 Lithuania had the highest mortality rate in both males and females (279.4/100,000 and 261.3/100,000, respectively) whilst the Netherlands had the lowest mortality in males and females (32.6/100,00 and 15.3/100,000, respectively). This represents an approximately 8.5-fold difference in IHD mortality in males and a 10.5-fold difference in females between these two countries. CVD mortality declined in all included countries between 1990–2017. Estonia saw the greatest improvements in both males and females (−80.8% and −84.9%, respectively), followed by Austria, Portugal and the Czech Republic (over 70% reductions in both sexes). Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania saw the smallest reductions (approximately −17% to −33%). In 2017, Bulgaria had the highest CVD mortality rate in both males and females (149.9/100,000 and 113.1/100,000, respectively), whilst the lowest mortality rate was observed in Austria (21.8/100,000 and 19.5/100,000 for males and females, respectively). This represents an approximately 7-fold difference in CVD mortality in males and a 6-fold difference in females between these two countries. Conclusions IHD and CVD mortality rates continue to decrease for men and women across Europe. While certain Eastern European countries have demonstrated considerable mortality improvements over this observation period, in general the disparity between Eastern and Western Europe persists, with further work required to understand and address these inequalities. Squares: male. Circles: female Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Changes and Variations in Death Due to Senility in Japan.

Objective: The proportion of elderly individuals (≥65 years old) in Japan has markedly increased. However, the definition of senility in Japan is controversial. The aim of the present study was to investigate changes and variations in the number of deaths due to senility in Japan. Methods: Information on the number of deaths due to senility between 1995 and 2018 as well as other major causes of death was obtained from the Statistics Bureau of Japan official website. Changes and variations in the number of deaths due to senility were compared with other major causes of death in Japan. The relationships between the number of deaths due to senility and socioeconomic factors were also examined in an ecological study. Results: The number of deaths due to senility was 35.7 ± 23.2/one hundred thousand people/year during the observation period and has continued to increase. A change point was identified in 2004 by a Jointpoint regression analysis. Variations in the number of deaths due to senility, which were evaluated by a coefficient of variation, were significantly greater than those due to other major causes of death, i.e., malignant neoplasm, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and pneumonia. The number of elderly individuals (≥65 years old) (%) and medical bills per elderly subject (≥75 years old) correlated with the number of deaths due to senility. Conclusion: The number of deaths due to senility has been increasing, particularly since 2004. However, variations in the number of deaths due to senility were observed among all prefectures in Japan.

Trend of deaths from external causes in Campinas, Brazil (2000-2017): Joint Point Regression Analysis

Abstract Introduction Deaths from external causes are caused by events or acute exposure to physical, chemicals agents or radiation; also due to the lack of essential agents for survival or injuries caused by oneself or others. The preventable nature of deaths from external causes has been pointed out mainly because there are related to violence. Objective To describe the trend and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil from 2000 to 2017. Methods Descriptive, cross-sectional study. Information sources: The death mortality certificates from the Municipal Health Secretariat's Information System included in the chapter XX of the CID-10. Data analysis: External causes were divided into five groups: transportation, falls, suicides, homicides and others. The Standardized Mortality Coefficient (SMC) per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated taking as a reference the populations of the 2000 and 2010 censuses, stratified by age group and sex. The trend analysis for homicide was performed using a joinpoint regression model. Results In Campinas during the studied period occurred 12,175 deaths from external causes (80.4% male, 19.6% female). The most important causes of mortality for men were homicides (50%) and traffic accidents (27%) and for women it was falls (35%), traffic accidents (24%) and homicides (22 %). The SMC trend towards homicides shows a decrease in male events and stability in women homicides. It is noteworthy the lack of change in the trend of the female coefficient, regarding the male SMP, we identify three significant changes in the trend. Conclusions The decrease in the number of deaths from external causes in Campinas is principally due to the decrease in homicides in male population. The SMP was able to analyze deaths adjusted to the characteristics of the population, being an important tool for the analysis of deaths from external causes. Key messages In Campinas deaths from external causes are important causes of mortality. The Standardized Mortality Coefficient and joint point regression method are useful tools for the analysis of deaths from external causes.

Incidence and survival rates and trends of skull Base chondrosarcoma: A Population-Based study

IntroductionChondrosarcomas are extremely rare, locally invasive, and potentially mortal malignant cartilaginous tumors. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and survival rates and trends of skull base chondrosarcomas (SBC). MethodsData from SBC patients between 1975 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The age-adjusted incidence rates (AAR) were calculated for the overall cases and based on gender, age, race, and histology. Furthermore, the relative survival rates for one, three, and five years, and the rates stratified to the aforementioned selected variables were computed. Besides, we conducted a joint point regression analysis to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and its associated standard error (SE) for AAR and mortality. ResultsThe AAR rate of SBC was 0.019 per 100,000. Higher AAR rates were observed in patients who were in the 65−74-year-age-group, females, Caucasians, and had none mesenchymal subtype. The relative one-year, three-year and five-year-survival rates were 99.58 %, 93.67 %, and 89.10 %, respectively. Lower survival rates were noted in patients who were males, African Americans, and had a mesenchymal subtype. The trend analysis has shown a significant yearly increase (P < 0.001) in AAR of SBC (APC ± SE = 0.0005 %±0.0001), along with a significant yearly decline in mortality rates (APC ± SE= -0.0202 %±0.0029). ConclusionDespite the increase in AAR over time, there has been a significant decline in mortality rates over time, which might have been due to the advancement of treatment modalities, improvement in diagnostic imaging, and modification in disease grading.

Primary cerebral lymphoma' characteristics, incidence, survival, and causes of death in the United States

PurposeThis study aimed to provide an updated overview of primary central lymphoma (PCL) using a large cohort of 33 years. That being said, we attempted to examine the patient demographics, management plans and their outcome, causes of death and the time trends in overall incidence and mortality rates of these patients. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1983 and 2016. We calculated the frequencies and the average annual age-adjusted rate (AAR) of PCL patients. Uni- and multivariable accelerated failure time regression were used to identify possible prognostic factors affecting the patients' survival. Furthermore, detailed causes of death were extracted and joint point regression analysis was done to examine incidence and mortality trends. ResultsWe identified 2925 PCL cases. The AAR was 0.148 per 100,000. An increase in age was significantly associated with shorter survival (HR: 1.01, 95%CI = 1.01–1.01, P < .001), while a recent year of diagnosis after 1993–2002 and 2002 was associated with improved survival (HR: 0.76, CI = 0.65–0.89, P = .001), and (HR: 0.48, CI = 0.41–0.56, P < .001), respectively. Overall, the trend of mortality rates in PCL patients has declined over the past years (−1.38% per year). ConclusionOur results support the previous evidence by showing an increase in patients' survival over time. While most PCL-related deaths occur within the first year, subsequent slow progression was observed after the first few years of survival. More attention should be given to the other possible non-PCL causes of death, especially beyond ten years of survival.