Jobless Households Research Articles

Reaching the European 2030 poverty target: The imperative to balance the EU social agenda

Reaching the three targets of the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) Action Plan is the litmus test for effective EPSR implementation. While the EPSR puts forward a prima facie balance between employment, equal opportunities and social protection, two important questions arise: a) whether and to what extent the resources available at EU level are sufficiently balanced across the different dimensions of the EPSR; and b) which implications this may have for achieving the 2030 poverty target. Analysing the three domains of the EPSR, its Action Plan and the wider EU legal framework of the principles contained in the EPSR, the paper argues that abundant EU resources are available for the areas of equality and employment, but fewer for social inclusion. The empirical evidence on poverty trends over the past decades, however, points to important successes in terms of employment and (gender) equality, but not with respect to social inclusion: a significant increase in employment and defeminisation of poverty have been accompanied by greater precarity for low-skilled men and women. Particularly striking is the rise in the risk of poverty among jobless households, linked with the weakening of the poverty reduction capacity of social protection for this group. Meeting the European social inclusion targets will thus require policies that duly focus on strengthening the framework for social inclusion and social protection.

Unravelling the relationship between employment, social transfers and income poverty: Policy and measurement

Despite the rise in employment, consistently high EU-average poverty rates continue to generate debates about the factors that explain the level and changes in the relative poverty rate, both within and across countries. Assuming a strong negative correlation between poverty and employment, the article investigates the role of four mechanisms responsible for this blurred relationship. Using decomposition analysis and macro-level regression analysis, we investigate the extent to which (i) the distribution of employment across households with different levels of work intensity, (ii) the expansion of non-standard work, (iii) the change in the effectiveness of social welfare systems, and (iv) the change in median income and the corresponding shift in the poverty threshold have contributed to changes in relative income poverty in the last decades. We found that employment growth benefits poverty reduction, but this positive effect was partially offset by the precarious characteristics of some newly created jobs. If the distribution of jobs had favoured the jobless more in the pre-crisis period, the relative income poverty rate would have been lower. Although the share of persons in jobless households decreased during the recovery years, their risk of poverty increased due to the retrenchment of social transfers during and after the Great Recession. Furthermore, the use of a floating threshold, which is linked to changes in median income, underestimates the strength of the relationships between poverty, employment and social transfers: when the poverty threshold is kept fixed, not only do the dynamics of poverty look different, but the estimated coefficients are considerably larger.

Household Joblessness in U.S. Metropolitan Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Polarization and the Role of Educational Profiles.

The authors use Current Population Survey 2016 to 2021 quarterly data to analyze changes in household joblessness across metropolitan areas in the United States during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors first use shift-share analysis to decompose the change in household joblessness into changes in individual joblessness, household compositions, and polarization. The focus is on polarization, which is the result of the unequal distribution of individual joblessness across households. The authors find that the rise in household joblessness during the pandemic varies strongly across U.S. metropolitan areas. The initial stark increase and subsequent recovery are due largely to changes in individual joblessness. Polarization contributes notably to household joblessness but to varying degree. Second, the authors use metropolitan area-level fixed-effects regressions to test whether the educational profile of the population is a helpful predictor of changes in household joblessness and polarization. They measure three distinct features: educational levels, educational heterogeneity, and educational homogamy. Although much of the variance remains unexplained, household joblessness increased less in areas with higher educational levels. The authors show that how polarization contributes to household joblessness is shaped by educational heterogeneity and educational homogamy.

Exploration of poverty and social exclusion of Slovak population via contrast analysis associated with logit models.

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of socio-economic and socio-demographic factors on the risk of poverty or social exclusion. The paper focuses on the analysis of the probability of social exclusion of the Slovak population from 4 perspectives, from being at risk of poverty or social exclusion, at risk of poverty, severely materially deprived, and living in a (quasi-)jobless household. The least-square means analysis and contrast analysis linked to logit models were used to identify risk groups, and to estimate the social exclusion probabilities. Based on the EU-SILC 2020 database, unemployed persons with low education and persons from single-parent and multi-child households had the greatest risk of social exclusion in Slovakia. Under ceteris paribus conditions, the risk decreased with increasing age and improving health status. The riskiest marital status was divorced. Analyses revealed regional disparities from the point of view of all 4 perspectives, with people living in South-Center and Eastern Slovakia and people living in sparsely and moderately populated areas having the greatest risk. Since economic activity status, household type, and educational attainment level showed as the most relevant factors, the article pays special attention to the assessment of the mutual influence of these factors. Although the pattern of the risk of social exclusion of persons broken down by household type and education for the unemployed and employed is similar, the riskiness of the most vulnerable groups of people is more pronounced for employed persons.

The association between improved standard of living and paediatric burns

IntroductionIn the “Children’s Hospital Zagreb Referral Centre for Paediatric Trauma of the Ministry of Health Republic of Croatia (MHC)” we observed a significant decline in the number of both hospitalised and ambulatory treated paediatric patients with burn injuries in the period from 2011 to 2018. Our hypothesis is that this decline could be either due to the decline of the paediatric population of Croatia or due to the economic growth and the improvement in the standard of living that Croatians have enjoyed in the past decade. Materials and methodsIn this observational study, we analysed data on the numbers of patients treated due to burn injuries from January 2011 to December 2018 in the Children’s Hospital Zagreb Hospital. Indicators of standard of living and population size estimates were obtained from Eurostat and the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Associations between the proportion of people with poor standard of living and the number of treated patients were analysed with logistic regression models. ResultsPercentage of the population with low housing standards, percentage of Croatians with low level of education, percentage of children that live in jobless households, and percentage of children at risk of poverty and social exclusion were predictors of the rate of hospital admissions, ambulatory treated patients and total number of treatments. The slight decrease in the rate of treated patients was interrupted with notable decline in 2014 followed by the slight increase in 2015. Over following years, the rate did not change remarkably. ConclusionApart from the decline of the paediatric population of Croatia, it is reasonable to assume that the improvement in the standard of housing, level of education and employment rate as well as the reduction in the risk of poverty and social exclusion in children had a notable contribution to the decline in the rate of paediatric burns in the observed period.

An Analysis of the Trend of Fetal Mortality Rates among Working and Jobless Households in Japan, 1995-2019.

This study aimed to identify differences in the trends of artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates between working and jobless households depending on ages, periods, and birth cohorts in Japan. Vital Statistics data from 1995 to 2019 and age groups in 5–year increments from 15 to 19 years through 45 to 49 years were used. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to evaluate changes in each of the outcomes. As a result, the difference in maternal age–standardized rate of both the artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates between the two types of households decreased in the periods analyzed. However, there was a statistically significant difference in the mortality rate between jobless and working households, regardless of maternal ages, periods, and cohorts for the artificial fetal mortality rate. A statistically significant difference was also observed for the spontaneous fetal mortality rates in some maternal ages, periods, and cohorts. In addition, the trend of birth cohort effects was particularly different between the two types of households for both the artificial and spontaneous fetal mortality rates.

The employment consequences of growing up in a dual-parent jobless household: A comparison of Australia and the United States

Despite the relevance of parents’ economic participation for children’s future outcomes, few studies have considered the joint contribution of both parents’ joblessness in explaining children’s employment outcomes in the long run. Further, previous studies have used measures of parents’ employment status observed at a single point in time. In contrast, in this study, exposure to dual-parent joblessness is measured in a cumulative fashion using longitudinal data for Australia (from the HILDA Survey, N = 895) and the United States (from the PSID, N = 1,500). We find that, in both countries, dual-parent-child associations are multiple times greater when parents jointly experience joblessness than when either of the parents is jobless. In the United States, family resources fully account for the link between parents’ and their children’s joblessness, whereas this is not the case in Australia. Overall, our study shows that dual-parent joblessness is an independent dimension of stratification that plays a prominent role in the reproduction of social and economic status across generations.

Surprisingly small: effects of “generous” social benefits on re-employment of (quasi-) jobless households

AbstractThis article analyses whether the extent of public welfare provision influences the speed at which (quasi-)jobless households get (back) into employment. (Quasi-)joblessness is one of the key criteria defining the risk of poverty and social exclusion in the EU. Moreover, the perceived tension between the main functions of social benefits (protecting households from poverty and incentivising job search) is most acute among these households. Based on EU-SILC data, we examine changes of household work intensity during one year after benefit receipt. We observe that “more-generous” social benefits have a slightly negative impact. This can potentially be due to a disincentive effect of social benefits, but it can also mean that the additional financial leeway is used by job seekers to wait for more adequate job offers or engage in further training. Even though statistically significant, the estimated negative effects are very small.

Accumulation or absorption? Changing disparities of household non-employment in Europe during the Great Recession

Abstract This comparative study analyzes the impact of the Great Recession on household non-employment across Europe since 2008. We use the EU-SILC (2007–2014) for a shift-share analysis that decomposes annual variations in household non-employment in 30 European countries. Investigating whether job loss is absorbed by or accumulated in households, we break down non-employment variations into changes in individual non-employment, household compositions and polarization. We find that household joblessness increased since 2008, especially in crisis-ridden countries. There is no evidence for the widespread absorption of individual non-employment in families or multi-person households. Instead, household dynamics and unequal distribution of non-employment lead to further risk accumulation within households during the crisis. Surprisingly, this pattern occurs in those crisis-ridden countries known for their traditional household structures and less accommodating welfare systems, which have relied thus far on families to absorb employment risks. The Great Recession has aggravated household disparities in joblessness in Europe.

Equity effects of parenting interventions for child conduct problems: a pan-European individual participant data meta-analysis

Childhood conduct problems are a costly public health problem and are five times more common in socially disadvantaged groups than they are in advantaged groups. Untreated, conduct problems have a poor prognosis, with increasing gaps between socioeconomic groups, and high rates of subsequent criminality. Incredible Years is a high quality parenting programme for reducing conduct problems and is widely disseminated in Europe. Many trials have shown Incredible Years to be effective but the potential effects of parenting interventions on social inequality are unknown. Some behavioural interventions (eg, smoking cessation programmes), although beneficial overall, can widen inequality gaps. Because single trials and aggregate-level meta-analyses are ill equipped for examining differential intervention (moderator) effects, we pooled individual-level trial data to assess the effects of Incredible Years on social equity. We did a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis by searching CINAHL, Embase, Global Health, Medline, and PsycINFO, for studies published from inception to March 15, 2019. We also searched the Incredible Years website library and consulted with experts, including the European Incredible Years mentors' network. We included data from all completed randomised trials of the Incredible Years parenting intervention in Europe that included children aged 1-12 years, including unpublished trials, without restriction on publication year or outcome measures. We included prevention (selective or universal) and treatment or indicated prevention trials (for children diagnosed or above the clinical cutoff for conduct problems). We excluded trials or conditions within trials that were not randomised, included additional non-parenting material (eg, child-focused interventions), or were abbreviated, non-standard versions of the usual Incredible Years intervention of 12-14 weekly sessions. We requested individual participant data from the study authors. The primary outcome was child conduct problems, assessed using the Eyberg Child Behavior Inventory Intensity (ECBI-I) scale. Moderators were analysed using multilevel modelling with multiple imputation. Of 15 European trials of Incredible Years parenting programmes (n=1696 children), individual participant data were unavailable for one trial and one trial did not assess the primary outcome. Children were aged 2-10 years (median 5·1), 492 (30%) of 1651 children were from an ethnic minority and 931 (58%) of 1614 were from low-income families. Families who received the Incredible Years intervention reported an overall reduction in child conduct problems (13·5 points on the ECBI-I scale, 95% CI 10·9-16·1). There were no differential effects by family disadvantage (indicated by poverty, lone parenthood, teenage parenthood, household joblessness, or low education), or ethnic minority status. We found no evidence for differential effects by social disadvantage, suggesting that Incredible Years is unlikely to widen socioeconomic inequalities in conduct problems. Furthermore, the programme might be an important tool for reducing social disparities and improving poor long-term outcomes in disadvantaged families because follow-up studies indicate that benefits persist. Clinicians and commissioners can be reassured that the programme is similarly effective for families from different backgrounds. UK National Institute for Health Research.

Children in jobless households across Europe: evidence on the association with medium- and long-term outcomes

The proportion of children living in a jobless household is a key indicator of social exclusion across Europe. Yet there is little evidence on the extent to which this measure of childhood deprivation is associated with later life outcomes. We use two harmonised cross-national data sources to consider the association between children experiencing jobless households and three medium- and longterm outcomes for the first time: education, adult joblessness and adult poverty. We find evidence of large penalties across all three outcomes in some countries while in other countries there are no longer-term associations with this indicator of social exclusion.

Who cares? A Counterfactual Analysis of Household Work Intensity in Households with Disabled Family Members

Disability policy has been dominated by two views, namely the medical and the social model. Employment policies stemming from these two models differ substantially. Yet, both models share an exclusive focus on the disabled individual and his labour market integration. Recent developments in labour market studies show that a household perspective offers new insights in the relationship between employment outcomes and social inequality. In this paper we argue that the dominant focus on individual employment of the current models falls short in depicting the full picture. We apply the notion of household work intensity and apply a polarization index to examine the distribution of employment over households with disabled family members, using EU-SILC data for 2005–2009. We find that the success of disability-related employment policies depend to a large extent on which unit of interest, i.e., the disabled individual or the household, is taken into account. More jobless households exist than would be expected in the case employment was randomly distributed. This reveals that the low employment rates of disabled household members only partially explain the low household work intensity. Shared socio-demographic traits have a mixed effect in explaining the excess joblessness. A more complex framework is therefore needed to account for household level mechanisms that influence household work intensity in families with disabled members.

The Rural and Agricultural Roots of the Tunisian Revolution: When Food Security Matters

Originating in rural areas, the popular uprising that led to the Tunisian revolution of 14 January 2011 has shed light on the growing social and regional disparities that have characterized development dynamics in Tunisia. While fa- vouring the reallocation of resources to coastal areas to the detriment of interior and agricultural regions, liberalization processes since the late 1980s also fostered export-oriented agricultural development strategies, based on the promotion of large-scale agricultural enterprises and irrigated farming. As a result, imports of grains and animal feed have come to represent a growing source of commercial balance deficit and of financial pressure on public budgets, particularly since the food crisis of 2008. On the other hand, decreasing farm subsidies, higher produc- tion costs, growing farmers’ indebtedness, have importantly reduced the repro- duction capacity of a large fraction of farms, particularly in the rain-fed agricul- ture sector. As rural outmigration and non-farm employment opportunities have been declining, small farms have become survival spaces for jobless household members, increasing the pressure on family resources and exacerbating social frustrations. While rising food prices were not the only cause of recent uprisings in Tunisia, processes of agricultural restructuring during the past 20 years contrib- uted importantly to fuel the revolutionary dynamics, thus giving a political di- mension to food issues. As demonstrated by the rise of farmers’ protest movement (land occupations, contestation of farmers unions, refusal to pay for irrigation water), structural change allowing for an increased control of economic resources by local farm producers is needed, but will fundamentally depend on the effec- tiveness of current process of ‘democratic’ transition in Tunisia.

Polarisation of Employment Over Households Revisited: The Belgian Case

Over the last 30 years the share of individuals in the Belgian working-age population without employment (‘individual joblessness’) has fallen continuously, while the share of households with no working-age member in employment (‘household joblessness’) remained fairly stable. In this paper we examine why individual joblessness and household joblessness diverge. The growing gap between both measures of joblessness reflects changes in household composition and changes in the distribution of individual employment over households. We describe the latter phenomenon by constructing a measure of ‘polarisation of employment over households’, which is based on the difference between observed and ‘expected’ household joblessness. On the basis of changes in household formation and changes in individual joblessness one would have expected household joblessness in Belgium to decrease. However, increasing polarisation, i.e. an increasingly unequal distribution of jobs over households, has counteracted this ‘expected’ evolution. Singles constitute households that are most vulnerable to the polarisation we describe, but a shift towards such more vulnerable households offers only a small share of the explanation of the evolution over time. We observe rising levels of polarisation, both in single adult households and couples. Within these household groups, changes in polarisation are similar, but increasing polarisation among couples is the most important factor in the overall increase in polarisation. The personal characteristics associated with individual joblessness (gender, education, age, region, origin) explain a significant part of this polarisation on the level of households. In 2012, almost half of polarisation in single adult households can be explained through typical individual characteristics of singles. In couples almost one third of polarisation is related to individual characteristics and marital selection. However, this also means that a substantial part of household joblessness cannot be explained by these individual characteristics. A comparison of Belgium with three low-polarisation countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands) and two high-polarisation countries (Ireland and the United Kingdom) suggests that polarisation is high in Belgium, when compared to Germany, France and the Netherlands, for the following reason. First, more than in those countries, Belgian singles have a weak socio-economic profile in terms of age, skills and origin: compared with the total population, they are more often low-skilled, older, and born outside the European Union. Second, the difference in individual joblessness between individuals with strong profiles and individuals with weak profiles is larger in Belgium than in those countries (whether it concerns singles or not). The latter factor is reinforced by regional differences within Belgium. Third, educational homogamy in couples is larger in Belgium than in Germany, France and the Netherlands.

A Study into the Persistence of Living in a Jobless Household

Relatively little is known about the dynamics of living in a jobless household at the individual level. We seek to fill this gap by using the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey to estimate a dynamic random effects probit model of household joblessness. We find that state dependence clearly is an important factor in the persistence of household joblessness, as are a number of observed characteristics, while unobserved heterogeneity is also shown to play an important role. Interestingly, the results indicate that the degree of state dependence differs very little between individuals with different characteristics.

The social stratification of social risks: The relevance of class for social investment strategies

Over the course of the past 20 years, welfare states are said to have evolved towards a ‘social investment’ model of welfare – characterized by a focus on equality of opportunity and upward social mobility along with a greater emphasis on individual responsibility. In view of these policy changes, it is necessary to assess whether traditional stratification cleavages (still) affect the occurrence of ‘social risks’. Using data from the 2005 EU-SILC intergenerational module, we consider the impact of social class (of origin) on a relevant selection of risks: unemployment, ill-health, living in a jobless household, single parenthood and low-paid employment. The results provide clear evidence of a substantial influence of social class. On this basis, we argue that social investment strategies need to take stock of the persistence of traditional stratification cleavages. Otherwise, a one-sided approach may create new forms of exclusion and give way to ‘Matthew effects’.

Stronger Families in Australia Study: The Impact of Communities for Children

This report presents the results of the evaluation of the short-run impacts of the Communities for Children (CfC) initiative on child, family and community outcomes. The study was based on a three-wave longitudinal study of 2,202 families living in 10 sites that had a CfC program and five sites comparable to the CfC sites (contrast sites). The first wave collected baseline data, Wave 2 was conducted during the implementation phase of the CfC and Wave 3 was conducted in 2008 approximately one year after the CfC program was underway. The aim of the study was to measure changes in child, family and community outcomes in CfC communities over the funding period. The study found evidence that CfC had positive impacts including: fewer children were living in a jobless household parents reported less hostile or harsh parenting practices parents felt more effective in their roles as parents.

Varieties of poverty reduction: Inserting the poverty and social exclusion target into Europe 2020

The aim of this article is to analyse the nature and significance of the recent European Union (EU) poverty and social exclusion target, which has become part of the EU’s new 10-year strategy, known as ‘Europe 2020’. It situates this analysis in the politics of social policy, at both transnational and national levels. The agreement on the target proved to be momentous and also contentious for the key actors involved – the Member States, the European Commission, the European Parliament – all of which were forced to change their position at some stage of the negotiations. The agreed target – to lift at least 20 million people out of poverty and social exclusion by 2020 – is ambitious and novel in an EU context. The analysis undertaken here underlines its specificity and some weaknesses. First, the target was the result of a political opportunity seized upon by a number of pro-social policy actors (some in the European Commission, the Parliament, certain Member States as well as non-governmental organizations), rather than an agreement to further Europeanize social policy. Second, the target is a compromise in that it is constituted quite diversely in terms of whether it will succeed by addressing income poverty, severe material deprivation and/or household joblessness. Third, the target allows much leeway in response by the Member States, in terms of both which definition they will use and what level of ambition they set for their target. As such, the target risks both incoherence as an approach to social policy and ineffectiveness in terms of precipitating significant action by the Member States to address poverty and social exclusion.

Household joblessness and its impact on poverty and deprivation in Europe

Working-age households where no-one is in work have become an increasing focus of policy concern even before the economic crisis, and the European Union (EU) has included household joblessness in its new poverty reduction target for 2020. This paper focuses on the variation across EU countries in the prevalence of household joblessness and its impact on income poverty and deprivation, and on the implications for the new EU poverty reduction target. It highlights first that there are some divergences across key data sources in the extent of joblessness. The prevalence of household joblessness varies substantially across EU countries, but there is little evidence of a consistent pattern among groupings of countries often categorized together in terms of welfare regime or geographically. In aggregate there is little association between the overall extent of household joblessness in a country and the percentage in relative income poverty or above a material deprivation threshold. At a micro level, being in a jobless household has a substantial impact on the likelihood of being in relative income poverty or deprived, but the scale of these impacts is shown to be very much greater in some countries than in others, and to vary between single-adult and multiple-adult households. In most EU countries little more than half the working-age adults in jobless households are either income-poor or deprived, so including joblessness in the poverty reduction target does make a difference, without a clearly articulated rationale.

Disappointing poverty trends: is the social investment state to blame?

Should we explain the disappointing outcomes of the Open Method of Co-ordination on Inclusion by methodological weaknesses or by substantive contradictions in the ‘social investment’ paradigm? To clarify the underlying concepts, we first revisit the original ‘Lisbon inspiration’ and then relate it to the idea of the ‘new welfare state’, as proposed in the literature on new risks in post-industrial societies. We then discuss two explanations for disappointing poverty trends, suggested by critical accounts of the ‘social investment state’: ‘resource competition’ and a ‘re-commodification’. We do not find these explanations convincing per se and conclude that the jury is still out on the ‘social investment state’. However, policy-makers cannot ignore the failure of employment policies to reduce the proportion of children and working-age adults living in jobless households in the EU, and they should not deny the reality of a ‘trilemma of activation’. Finally, we identify policy conditions that may facilitate the complementarity of social investment and social inclusion.