Jihadist Threat Research Articles

Is Far-Right Violence Actually Increasing in Australia? Tracking Far-Right Terrorism and Violence in Australia

In recent times, governments throughout the Western world have warned of an increase in far-right violence. A range of government and academic sources have also made spectacular claims regarding a rise in far-right violence in Australia. However, for a range of reasons, the actual prevalence of far-right violence occurring in Australia remains largely unknown. To address this gap in knowledge, the following documents acts of far-right violence and terrorism in Australia between 1990 and 2020. This study demonstrates that no clear increase has actually occurred. A total of 181 incidents are identified across almost all geographic locations, with concentrations of violence noted in Melbourne and North Queensland. A clear spike in violent incidents was identified between 2005 and 2010. However, a complete reduction in fatal violence has occurred since that time, and there has also been a notable reduction in violent events across most years since that peak. Notably, only a vanishingly small number of incidents were perpetrated by individuals associated with organised far-right groups. Rather, the vast majority of attacks are committed by lone actors or small unorganised groups, often spontaneously. To date, this more chronic form of far-right violence has been almost entirely overlooked by policymakers. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if Australia’s existing counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism infrastructure, built primarily to address a Jihadist threat that is highly networked, geographically concentrated and transnationally linked, can be adapted to combat a far-right that is largely unorganised and geographically decentralised.

Twenty years of countering jihadism in Western Europe: from the shock of 9/11 to ‘jihadism fatigue’

ABSTRACT This article provides a reflection on the jihadist threat, the policies and actors that deal with this threat and the impact of jihadism and counterterrorism in Western Europe in the past twenty years. It describes how the threat, counterterrorism policies and their impact have developed over time and demonstrates how threat perceptions in society and the political arena have not always been aligned with the actual threat. There have been periods of disbalance between the threat and responses to it, leading to both overreactions and inflated threat descriptions and fear levels, as well as periods with limited attention that might have contributed to unpleasant surprises at a later stage. Against this backdrop, the article criticises the incident-driven approach to counterterrorism and warns against both overreactions as well as ‘jihadism fatigue’.

Fitting national interests with populist opportunities: intervention politics on the European radical right

As European radical right parties grow in influence, and as foreign and security policy becomes more politicised, these parties have increasing potential to shape national debates on international affairs. This paper shows how radical right opposition parties seek to exploit policy dilemmas surrounding military intervention according to the nature of the political opportunity these dilemmas present in specific national settings. Its findings are based on qualitative comparative case studies of Front National, AfD and UKIP responses to intervention debates surrounding the Syrian civil war in France, Germany and the UK. I find that non-intervention is not an absolute value for radical right parties. Whilst liberal-humanitarian interventions are uniformly rejected, interventions on national security grounds, whether to combat Jihadist threats or prevent uncontrolled migration, prompt a range of responses shaped by the domestic political context. Yet even where these parties back intervention in votes, their discourse focuses on fitting the issue to the populist dimensions of their political agenda, especially attacking mainstream rivals for incompetence, duplicity or incoherence, and failing to protect the sovereignty and ethnic integrity of the nation.

The Strategic Relevance Of The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean is usually observed as a gateway to Europe, mainly in terms of migratory processes. Over the last few years, the progressive shift of interest to Asia by the United States has led to new opportunities for competing regional players, which affect the local security framework. In this new scenario, the Mediterranean takes on relevance no longer only as a gateway to Europe, but as a crucial strategic area for the penetration of the African continent. The latter has long been known as the incubator of the new jihadist threat, which is finding new life and increasingly assuming the characteristics of a hybrid threat. In such a crisis scenario, the security of the Mediterranean is no longer limited to the coastal countries of North Africa but inevitably includes the Sahel area. Here, for years now, the progressive formation of a united front of instability has been observed, crossing Africa from the east to the west coast (here called the "Black Belt Road"), through the bridging of different crises. Considering the European and Italian military presence through operations Barkhane and Takuba, the security of the Mediterranean directly affects the future scenarios of Western military involvement in the African continent.

US Special Forces transformation: post-Fordism and the limits of networked warfare

Abstract The last two decades have witnessed a rapid rise in the use, size and capability of many western Special Operations Forces (SOF). A response to the global jihadist threat, the growing presence, prominence and technology-enabled lethality of SOF in conflict zones has resulted in increased scholarly attention. Some have argued that their rise is indicative of important and ongoing changes in the character of war itself. One of the most influential of these works is Steven Niva's study of the transformation of US Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) Task Forces in Iraq. Niva argues that JSOC (more accurately its Task Force 714 Command Headquarters, henceforth TF714) was forced to adopt a networked organizational structure to counter Al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI). For Niva, this transformation provided evidence of a shift towards ‘counter-net’ and ‘chaoplexic’ forms of warfare conceptualized by Bousquet in this journal. This article uses new primary and secondary sources to critique these claims. It argues that although a network approach was an important part of TF714's transformation, it was only one part. Instead, JSOC's transformation is more accurately understood through a post-Fordist industrial framework of the centralization of management control and the simultaneous decentralization of decision-making; the integration of core and periphery forces; outsourcing; and a network approach to knowledge. From this analysis, it argues that post-Fordist, rather than network or chaoplexic theory, best describes even the most networked military organizations in the twenty-first century, and that more broadly, fully networked warfare is unlikely given the frictions associated with the coming ‘binary’ battlefield.

Le Mali d'autrefois et d'aujourd'hui

<p>Mali of the past and today is different on several levels. If territorial fixity seems to be erected in absolute value in the text of Maryse Condé, the travel account of François-Xavier Freland invalidates the immutability of the spaces represented. Relying on the intellectual mechanics of "founding myths" of the empires of the time, Condé delegates characters who extol the virtues of territorial immobility, considering that Ségou and Toumbouctou are eternal. But the flow of time has brought several changes to the Malian space, namely a geopolitical crisis brought about by Libyan chaos and a pervasive jihadist threat.</p>

The Barcelona and Cambrils Attacks: A Case Study of the Impact of Political Decentralization and Separatism on Counter Terrorism Policing

This article analyses how counter terrorism policing before and after the August 2017 jihadi attacks in Catalonia was negatively affected by two factors: the Spanish policing model based on a decentralized security system and the independentist challenge posed by the Catalan Government. Firstly, the article assesses the political and legal framework vis-à-vis security in a quasi-federal democracy like Spain. Secondly, it analyzes how the police response to the jihadist threat was impacted by this multilayer system structured around a central government, seventeen autonomous regions, two autonomous cities, and over eight thousand local councils. Thirdly, the article examines how the challenge posed by independentists in the Autonomous region of Catalonia, who in 2017 attempted to break away from Spain in defiance of the Spanish Constitution, exacerbated the structural problems of the security system. It concludes that the combination of several factors in a particularly conflictive political environment led to the failure of counter terrorism policing on three levels: proactive, preventive, and reactive.

Fear without Prejudice in the Shadow of Jihadist Threat

Because the prejudice of the ingroup builds into fear of the outgroup, jihadist terrorism is expected to strengthen the politicized link between security and immigration. I use a causal inference in a clustered cross-country analysis to test the simultaneous short-run causal impact of the jihadist threat on security fear and ethnic prejudice of the public in Israel, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, France, and Germany. In line with common wisdom, jihadist attacks significantly increase security fear. Against it, jihadist attacks non-significantly decrease ethnic prejudice. This empirical pattern holds in across different types of immigration attitudes, ethnic groups, intervals of time and terrorist events, and is robust to placebo treatments, placebo policy preferences, fake and failed terror attacks. These findings challenge extant consensus, and suggest that jihadist attacks, particularly at the local level, induce risk-aversion rather than desire for retaliation.

“We Will Conquer Your Rome”: Italy and the Vatican in the Islamic State’s Propaganda

Over the last few years, Italy has occupied a relatively marginal position with respect to the jihadist threat. Nonetheless, the propaganda of the Islamic State mentions Italy and the bordering Vatican with a seemingly disproportionate frequency. This article presents an in-depth analysis of all textual references in Dabiq and Rumiyah, the flagship magazines of this sophisticated jihadist organization. Overall, several mentions concern “Rome,” intended as a symbol for the West and Christianity and with a number of other meanings. However, there is no lack of potentially worrying references to Italy, Italians, the Vatican, and the Pope.

NIGERIA: Growing Jihadist Threat

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 56, Issue 7 p. 22375A-22376C National Security NIGERIA: Growing Jihadist Threat First published: 16 August 2019 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2019.08990.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume56, Issue7August 2019Pages 22375A-22376C RelatedInformation

Burkina Faso and jihadism in West Africa

The jihadist threat is migrating southward from the Sahel. Burkina Faso’s security environment, once relatively benign, has deteriorated rapidly due to the activity of domestic and transnational terrorist groups. If present trends persist, Burkina Faso could serve as a launchpad for jihadists to expand towards coastal West Africa.

Terror in West Africa: a threat assessment of the new Al Qaeda affiliate in Mali

ABSTRACT In response to the chaos that ensued after the 2012 coup in Mali, tens of thousands of international troops were sent to West Africa to eradicate the jihadist threat emanating from the north. However, little discernible progress has been made since then and if anything, the threat seems to be growing. In March 2017, several high-profile terrorist groups merged under the banner of al Qaeda to form a new group: Jama’ at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). The new group has already committed numerous attacks across West Africa since the merger, striking primarily French, UN, and West African security forces. This study constitutes an assessment of the newly merged al Qaeda affiliate in terms of intentions and capabilities, drawing upon elements of comparative historical analysis on the theoretical basis of rational choice to create a holistic assessment of the threat posed to key groups in West Africa.

Group-Based Relative Deprivation Explains Endorsement of Extremism Among Western-Born Muslims

Although jihadist threats are regarded as foreign, most Islamist terror attacks in Europe and the United States have been orchestrated by Muslims born and raised in Western societies. In the present research, we explored a link between perceived deprivation of Western Muslims and endorsement of extremism. We suggest that Western-born Muslims are particularly vulnerable to the impact of perceived relative deprivation because comparisons with majority groups’ peers are more salient for them than for individuals born elsewhere. Thus, we hypothesized that Western-born, compared with foreign-born, Muslims would score higher on four predictors of extremism (e.g., violent intentions), and group-based deprivation would explain these differences. Studies 1 to 6 (Ns = 59, 232, 259, 243, 104, and 366, respectively) confirmed that Western-born Muslims scored higher on all examined predictors of extremism. Mediation and meta-analysis showed that group-based relative deprivation accounted for these differences. Study 7 (N = 60) showed that these findings are not generalizable to non-Muslims.

The Jihadist Threat to Europe: From Al Qaeda to the Islamic State

The Jihadist Threat to Europe: From Al Qaeda to the Islamic State

Burkina Faso – Growing Jihadist Threat

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 55, Issue 5 p. 21865C-21865C National Security Burkina Faso – Growing Jihadist Threat First published: 13 June 2018 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2018.08271.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume55, Issue5June 2018Pages 21865C-21865C RelatedInformation

Reducing barriers how the Jews of Djerba are using tourism to assert their place in the modern nation state of Tunisia

ABSTRACTThe Island of Djerba is one of Tunisia’s most important tourist venues. Once a year, it becomes the host site for the only Jewish pilgrimage in the entire Islamic world, an event that takes place at the synagogue of El Ghriba, itself the oldest synagogue in North Africa. The Jewish community in Djerba is today confronted not only by the challenges of declining numbers due to outmigration and an aging population, but also by issues arising from a lack of political representation. The result has been a rise in forecasts about a continued decline in community numbers and a corresponding attrition in the number of people making the pilgrimage to El Ghriba. At the same time, with the increase in Jihadist threats since the attack against the synagogue in 2002 and the revolution of 2011, the importance of ensuring that the pilgrimage to El Ghriba can continue to occur has become an issue of national concern. The pilgrimage is now launched every year under the auspices of officials of the State, such as President Marzouki and and different Ministers of Tourism and takes place under heavy military and police protection. Both the pilgrimage itself and the community now seem to be invested with a new role intrinsic to the overall economic and security status of the country. This article proposes an analysis of the different strategies employed by the Jewish community to use tourism to reassert its role as a full and active citizen of Tunisia, while at the same time maintaining the vitality of the pilgrimage to El Ghriba.

Eurocentrism, Africanity and ‘the Jihad’: Towards an Africa Worldview on Jihadism

Constructions of the Jihadist threat in the West African sub-region have been dominated by knowledge preferences around the ‘Global War on Terror’ (GWoT). Analysis of political response to terroris...

Terrorism Where Terror Is Not: Australian and New Zealand Terrorism Compared

ABSTRACTDespite many commonalities in national security priorities, Australia and New Zealand approach the threat of terrorism quite differently. Both had twentieth-century manifestations of domestic terrorism which were generally downplayed. The emergence of jihadist-inspired threats globally have affected Australia much more than New Zealand, and Australian counterterrorism strategy has developed significantly since 9/11. New Zealand has watched global events so far untouched by any jihadist threat, and has implemented few effective counterterrorism measures. The reasons for the differing experience, it is contended here, are the varying historical perceptions of threat, and consequent differing approaches each country has taken to mitigate perceived threat.

Competition among Violent Islamist Extremists

The jihadist threat emanating from the Middle East has transformed dramatically in the past five years due to unprecedented levels of sociopolitical instability. While the region and much of the world around it previously faced a threat dominated by al-Qaeda, developments in the heart of the Middle East since 2014 have given birth to a new and more dangerous dynamic—two international jihadist movements competing to outdo each other on an increasingly brutal and complex world stage. In recent years, al-Qaeda has undergone a consequential strategic evolution: increasingly autonomous affiliates have begun to adopt a patient, long-game approach to operations, while ISIS has sought to attain rapid results. As two divergent models of jihad develop, different threats result, with the one universal factor being the exploitation of political failure, failing states, and sociopolitical instability to further extremist narratives. It is now more important than ever to develop tailor-made policies designed not just to combat jihadism itself but to ameliorate underlying conditions that have allowed it to thrive.

SENEGAL: Jihadist Threat Grows

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 53, Issue 2 p. 20900B-20901B National Security SENEGAL: Jihadist Threat Grows First published: 04 March 2016 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2016.06902.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume53, Issue2March 2016Pages 20900B-20901B RelatedInformation