Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System Research Articles

Predictability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings of the Vortex Split Type: Case Study of the 2002 Southern Event and the 2009 and 1989 Northern Events

Abstract This study investigates the predictability of three major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs) of the vortex split type: the Southern Hemisphere case in September 2002 and two Northern Hemisphere cases in January 2009 and February 1989. The author examines changes in the predictability of the MSSWs with lead time, as well as the connection of the predictability to lower-atmospheric features for pre- and post-MSSW periods. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s 1-month ensemble hindcast (HC) experiment data are compared to the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25)/JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) data. For the pre-MSSW period, a strong predictability connection is observed among all three cases. Unsuccessful predictions of the MSSWs are characterized by an underestimation (or lack) of the enhanced wave activity in the lower stratosphere, which is further related to the strength and persistence of the upper-tropospheric ridge and trough. The mean zonal wind profile in the upper troposphere is also important for the 2009 case. These results confirm the role of tropospheric wave forcing of the MSSWs in the context of predictability. The characteristic time scale for successful predictions is approximately 10 days–2 weeks, which roughly corresponds to the time scale of the tropospheric wave forcing. No ensemble member successfully predicts the MSSWs with lead times longer than the time scale. The predictability connection between the stratospheric and tropospheric anomalies is more subtle for the post-MSSW period. In particular, the HC group initialized about 1 week before the MSSWs tends to reproduce the evolution of the stratosphere after the MSSWs well but not that of the troposphere in some cases.

Tropical Cyclone Tracking Using a Neighbor Enclosed Area Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) tracking is essential for calculating TC statistics from gridded datasets. A new method for TC tracking is presented here using neighbor enclosed area tracking (NEAT), which is based on the temporal overlap of enclosed areas above a vorticity threshold and differs from the widely used neighbor point tracking (NPT) method. The parameters of cyclone intensity, vertical-shear, and warm-core criteria were intensively tuned for NEAT and NPT. When these criteria were optimized for the typhoon tracks observed in the western North Pacific based on the Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis Project (JRA-25)/Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) dataset, the NEAT and NPT algorithms captured approximately 85% of typhoons with little qualitative distortion in the spatial distribution and temporal variability of the TC track density. The grid system dependency of the algorithms was tested by applying NEAT and NPT to a high-resolution general circulation model output. The method presented here can also provide realistic statistics on the TC size, the extratropical transition timing, and the meridional heat transport.

Deforestation‐induced reduction in rainfall

Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Borneo is the third largest island in the world and famous for its majestic rainforests (Figure 1a). Southeast Asian tropical forests have the highest relative deforestation rate in the world (Canadell et al., 2007). More than 80% of the total land area of Borneo was covered with pristine forest in the 1950s; however, the high deforestation rate (1.7%year ), which is almost double that of the already intense deforestation rate of the whole Southeast Asian region, has resulted in the current estimation of forest cover being ~50% (Langner et al., 2007) (Figure 1b). Since 1965, production of tropical hardwood timber in Borneo sharply increased and reached a plateau and maximum in the early 1980s (Brookfield and Byron, 1990). Although the recent and rapid decline in timber production has been evident throughout Borneo owing to over-logging, over the past decades, more timber was exported from Borneo than from tropical Africa and Latin America combined (Curran et al., 2004). The land cover area categorized as ‘degraded forest and regrowth’, ‘cultivation forest mosaic’ and ‘dry/wet bare soil; grasslands; agriculture’ reached up to 33 million ha, ~45% of the total area of Borneo (Langner et al., 2007). Tropical forests are a major source of global hydrologic fluxes, and thus, this forest cover change has potential to significantly alter the global and regional climate and hydrologic cycling (Nobre et al., 1991;Kanae et al., 2001; Avissar andWerth, 2005). Because tropical rainforests exist where ecosystem water resources are greatest, the hydrologic changes could significantly alter ecological patterns and processes (Malhi et al., 2009; Phillips et al., 2009; Kumagai and Porporato, 2012), in turn affecting feedback to the atmosphere (Meir et al., 2006; Bonan, 2008). It is a matter of course that the drastic deforestation and forest degradation in Borneo should be anticipated to impact the regional hydro-climate; in fact, the long-term daily grid precipitation datasets (APHRODITE’s Water Resources, available via http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/, Yatagai et al., 2012) over Borneo showed a significant decline in precipitation over the period 1951–2007 (Figure 1c). An abrupt decline in precipitation in the late 1980s can be seen (Figure 1c), which was consistent with a time when deforestation, i.e. logging for timber production, might have become intensive (Brookfield and Byron, 1990; Curran et al., 2004). Furthermore, it should be noted that such a decreasing trend in precipitationmight cause frequent extreme droughts and subsequent fires, resulting in more severe deforestation and forest degradation (van Nieuwstadt and Sheil, 2005; Wooster et al., 2012). A spatial distribution of atmospheric moisture convergence averaged over 1998–2010 in the eastern Pacific Ocean (built using a reanalyzed and gridded four-dimensional meteorology dataset, Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis and the JapanMeteorologicalAgencyClimateDataAssimilation System available via http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/index_en.html) suggests less moisture convergence and divergence over Borneo compared with other regions (Figure 2a). On the other hand, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite measurements from 1998 to 2010 (NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, available via http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/ about-us) showed a larger amount of precipitation above islands of the maritime continent in the western Pacific Ocean compared with sea areas,

Evaluation of Biases in JRA-25/JCDAS Precipitation and Their Impact on the Global Terrestrial Carbon Balance

Abstract This study evaluates a modeled precipitation field and examines how its bias affects the modeling of the regional and global terrestrial carbon cycle. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation produced by the Japanese 25-yr reanalysis (JRA-25)/Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) were compared with two large-scale observation datasets. JRA-25/JCDAS captures the major distribution patterns of annual precipitation and the features of the seasonal cycle. Notable problems include over- and undersimulated areas of precipitation amount in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia in the 30°N–30°S domain and a large discrepancy in the number of rainfall days. The latter problem was corrected by using a stochastic model based on the probability of the occurrence of dry and wet day series; the monthly precipitation amount was then scaled by the comparison data. Overall, the corrected precipitation performed well in reproducing the spatial distribution of and temporal variations in total precipitation. Both the corrected and original precipitation data were used to simulate regional and global terrestrial carbon cycles using the prognostic biosphere model Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace Gases (VISIT). Following bias correction, the model results showed differences in zonal mean photosynthesis uptake and respiration release ranging from −2.0 to +3.3 Pg C yr−1, compared with the original data. The difference in the global terrestrial net carbon exchange rate was 0.3 Pg C yr−1, reflecting the compensation of coincident increases or decreases in carbon sequestration and respiration loss. At the regional scale, the ecosystem carbon cycle and canopy structure, including seasonal variations in autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration and total biomass, were strongly influenced by the input precipitation data. The results highlight the need for precise precipitation data when estimating the global terrestrial carbon balance.

Water Origins over Central and Southern Japan during the Early Summer Rainy Season as Simulated with an Isotope Circulation Model

By applying the Japanese long-term Re-Analysis project (JRA-25) and the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) data to a Rayleigh-type global one-layer isotope circulation model, we performed a long-term simulation and examined how water vapor is remotely transported to the vicinity of Japan from water source regions during the early summer rainy (Baiu) season. We validated the model outputs, comparing them with the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios (δD and δ18O) of precipitation observed at two in situ sites in southern and central Japan during the 2010 Baiu, and determined that the correlations between the simulation and observation are comparable to those in precipitation in Thailand from August to October when the Asian summer monsoon withdraws. The model results demonstrate that the Baiu is characterized by relatively low values of δD and that the δD values over central Japan are lower than those over southern Japan. When the Baiu commences, Indian Ocean water increases rapidly and then contributes substantially to the total precipitable water until the withdrawal of the Baiu, which is partially responsible for the low values of δD. Once the Baiu withdraws, alternatively, Pacific Ocean water occupies most of the total precipitable water. Another signature of its withdrawal is the decrease in land water of the Eurasian continent. It is also clear that the intrusion of the Indian Ocean water into central Japan remained until the end of August in the extremely cool summers of 1993 and 2003, which is interpreted as an extraordinary persistence of the Baiu period.

An Observational Study of the Extremely Heavy Rain Event in Northern Vietnam during 30 October-1 November 2008

An extraordinarily heavy rain event occurred in northern Vietnam from 30 October to 1 November 2008. The three consecutive days of extremely heavy rain resulted in the worst flooding event in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, and its environs in 24 years. Results from analysis of the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) re-analysis data show that a synoptic-scale tropical wave disturbance formed over the South China Sea and traveled northwestward over the eastern coast of the Indochinese Peninsula, brought the extremely heavy rainfall to northern Vietnam. In the mid-latitudes, a belt of surface high extended southeastward from western Mongolia to the East China Sea, causing a persistent northeasterly monsoonal flow on its south-eastern edge along the southern coast of China. The northeasterly flow worked together with the tropical disturbance, creating a strong low-level wind convergence in northern Vietnam. Examination of the structure of the tropical disturbance revealed that the meridional wind structure and cyclonic vorticity of the disturbance extended vertically to approximately 300 hPa, with the maximum fluctuations occurring at the 800-600 hPa layer and shows nearly vertical with height. A remarkable feature of the atmosphere is the large increases in the equivalent potential temperature in the upper troposphere higher than about 500 hPa, with strong southerly winds greater than 15 m s-1 in the 300-150 hPa layers for the three days in question. In conclusion, the tropical disturbance, which worked together with the persistent Asian winter monsoon, caused the extreme rainfall event.

Influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability on the Surface Cyclogenesis over the East China Sea in Late Winter

Using data from the Japanese long-term Re-Analysis project (JRA-25) and the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS), we examined how the East Asian winter monsoon variability regulates the surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the East China Sea and the Kuroshio Current in late winter. On a monthly basis, the surface cyclone occurrence has a tendency to concentrate over the East China Sea at the strong phase of the East Asian winter monsoon activity, while it disperses zonally along the Kuroshio Current to the south of Japan in the weak monsoon phase. The scatteredness of the surface cyclogenesis are mainly attributed to the change in the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity between the strong and weak monsoon phases. It is also suggested that, when the monsoon is strong, the enhanced baroclinic zone along the Kuroshio Current south of Japan provides a favorable condition for the rapid development of the surface cyclones that originate over the East China Sea and migrate northeastward.

Characteristics of 3–4- and 6–8-Day Period Disturbances Observed over the Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract A field observational campaign [i.e., the Mirai Indian Ocean cruise for the Study of the MJO-convection Onset (MISMO)] was conducted over the central equatorial Indian Ocean in October–December 2006. During MISMO, large-scale organized convection associated with a weak Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) broke out, and some other notable variations were observed. Water vapor and precipitation data show a prominent 3–4-day-period cycle associated with meridional wind υ variations. Filtered υ anomalies at midlevels in reanalysis data [i.e., the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS)] show westward phase velocities, and the structure is consistent with mixed Rossby–gravity waves. Estimated equivalent depths are a few tens of meters, typical of convectively coupled waves. In the more rainy part of MISMO (16–26 November), the 3–4-day waves were coherent through the lower and midtroposphere, while in the less active early November period midlevel υ fluctuations appear less connected to those at the surface. SST diurnal variations were enhanced in light-wind and clear conditions. These coincided with westerly anomalies in prominent 6–8-day zonal wind variations with a deep nearly barotropic structure through the troposphere. Westward propagation and structure of time-filtered winds suggest n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves, but with estimated equivalent depth greater than is common for convectively coupled waves, although sheared background flow complicates the estimation somewhat. An ensemble reanalysis [i.e., the AGCM for the Earth Simulator (AFES) Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) Experimental Reanalysis (ALERA)] shows enhanced spread among the ensemble members in the zonal confluence phase of these deep Rossby waves, suggesting that assimilating them excites rapidly growing differences among ensemble members.

GRACE and AMSR‐E‐based estimates of winter season solid precipitation accumulation in the Arctic drainage region

Solid precipitation plays a major role in controlling the winter hydrological cycle and spring discharge in the Arctic region. However, it has not been well documented due to sharply decreasing numbers of precipitation gauges, gauge measurement biases, as well as limitations of conventional satellite methods in high latitudes. In this study, we document the winter season solid precipitation accumulation in the Arctic region using the latest new satellite measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer‐Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E). GRACE measures the winter total water (mainly from snow water equivalent (SWE)) storage change through gravity changes while AMSR‐E measures the winter SWE through passive microwave measurements. The GRACE and AMSR‐E measurements are combined with in situ and numerical model estimates of discharge and evapotranspiration to estimate the winter season solid precipitation accumulation in the Arctic region using the water budget equation. These two satellite‐based estimates are then compared to the conventional estimates from two global precipitation products, such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and three reanalyses, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts' ERA‐Interim, and the Japan Meteorological Agency's Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) reanalysis. The GRACE‐based estimate is very close to the GPCP and ERA‐Interim estimates. The AMSR‐E‐based estimate is the most different from the other estimates. This GRACE‐based measurement of winter season solid precipitation accumulation can provide a new valuable benchmark to understand the hydrological cycle, to validate and evaluate the model simulation, and to improve data assimilation in the Arctic region.

Lower tropospheric horizontal wind over Indonesia: A comparison of wind profiler network observations with global reanalyses

Horizontal wind data over Indonesia obtained by global reanalyses were compared with wind-profiling radar (WPR) observations in Indonesia at Kototabang (100.32°E, 0.20°S), Pontianak (109.37°E, 0.00°S), Manado (124.92°E, 1.55°N), and Biak (136.10°E, 1.18°S). The global-reanalysis data were 850- and 700-hPa horizontal winds for 2007 and 2008. These data were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis (R1), the NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis (R2), the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis-interim (ERA-Interim). All the four reanalyses showed good agreement with the WPR zonal and meridional wind data (correlation coefficient >0.7 in most cases). Of the four reanalyses, ERA-Interim had the highest correlation coefficient with the WPR winds in both zonal (correlation coefficient 0.89) and meridional (0.77) components. It can be explained that ERA-Interim used four-dimensional variational analysis (4D-var) for data assimilation, whereas the other reanalyses used three-dimensional variational analysis (3D-var). The zonal winds of the four reanalyses had smaller (78–87%) amplitudes than did the WPR winds. Further comparison of the zonal winds between the global reanalyses and operational radiosondes indicated that global-reanalysis zonal winds with smaller amplitudes are common in and around Indonesia.

A Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in January 2009

Abstract The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event of January 2009 is analyzed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS). This SSW event is characterized by the extraordinary predominance of the planetary-scale wave of zonal wavenumber 2 (wave 2). The total amount of the upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux for wave 2 was the strongest since the winter of 1978/79. It is found that the remarkable development of the upper troposphere ridge over Alaska played important roles in the SSW in January 2009. During the first development stage, the ridge excited wave packets upward as well as eastward over around Alaska. The eastward-propagating packets intensified a trough over eastern Siberia, which led to the development of the planetary wave over eastern Siberia during the second development stage. The results of this study indicate that the pronounced wave-2 pattern observed in the stratosphere was brought about by accumulative effects of rather localized propagation of wave packets from the troposphere during the course of this SSW event rather than by the ubiquitous propagation of planetary-scale disturbances in the troposphere. The features of the SSW in January 2009 are quite similar to those during the major stratospheric warming event in February 1989: both SSWs are characterized by the predominance of wave 2, the remarkable development of the upper troposphere ridge over around Alaska, and positive SSTs in the eastern part of the North Pacific corresponding to a La Niña condition.

Predictability during the Onset Period of a Euro-Atlantic Blocking Event during 12-21 December 2007

The predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions during the onset period of a prominent atmospheric blocking event occurring over the Euro-Atlantic sector during 12-21 December 2007 is examined using Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA25)/JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) dataset and one-week ensemble forecast dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). First, it is found that the predictability in the blocking region is temporarily reduced during the onset period of the blocking event. Second, a simple sensitivity analysis introduced by Enomoto et al. (2007) indicates that low-frequency variations associated with a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train significantly affect the prediction of the blocking onset in comparison with high-frequency variations. This is also confirmed by the time evolution of the spread among ensemble members based on 300-hPa height field. Finally, the predicted vorticity flux divergence by the low-frequency variations, rather than the high-frequency variations, is also found to significantly correlate with the predicted blocking strength, which stresses the importance of the low-frequency variations for the prediction of the onset of this blocking event.