Jamaica Labour Party Research Articles

The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica

Three econometric models were built between January and March 2020 to predict the September 3, 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. A Jack-knife resampling was performed for cross validation. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcomes, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in the Anglophone Caribbean because the Jamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For example, increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. This work should be replicated in the Caribbean and Latin America using panel data.

The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica

Three econometric models were built to predict the 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcome, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in Latin America and the Caribbean because the Jamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For e.g. increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. We therefore need to understand how voter microlevel characteristics, meso-level patterns of relationships and macro-level institutions influence election outcomes within and across Latin America and the Caribbean.

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.

An Analysis of the Type and Content of TV Ads in the 2002 Jamaican General Election

This article is an exploratory effort to get some understanding of the type of ads aired on CVM Television and Television Jamaica and the content of the ads because there is a lack of research in this area. The 2002 General Election was very important because the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) wanted to escape its 13 years sojourn in opposition and the Peoples National Party (PNP) wanted an unprecedented fourth term in office. To get their message to the voters the two major parties hit the campaign trail with house to house canvassing, motorcades, mass meetings, and advertisements in the print and electronic media. The JLP and the PNP aired their television campaign ads to prime the Jamaican voters thereby shaping their views about the political world so that the voters would vote for one of these political parties. The PNP used less television campaign ads than the JLP. There were other differences between the PNP and the JLP in the type of ads they aired. The PNP had more positive ads than the JLP, more negative ads than the JLP and less contrast ads than the JLP.The two major political parties aired the types of television ads based on what they thought the important issues were and their positions on these issues which the parties believed would help them to win the 2002 General Election.

A calculated assault on the authority of the state? Crime, politics and extradition in 21st century Jamaica

The Jamaican state has operated under a form of the Westminster model, dominated by the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP), since independence in 1962. There have been sixteen general elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944, regular changes of government have occurred and it has been regarded as a stable democracy for the majority of the period of its existence. However, this apparent stability masks a political culture which has been marked by violence and corruption. Whilst the political violence of the late 1970s had declined significantly by the end of the twentieth century, the spiralling crime rate has been an ongoing problem for both PNP and JLP governments. In this article, I explore the nature of the relationship between politics and crime in twenty-first century Jamaica. I argue that the original links between politics and crime which were forged in the preindependence stage and which assisted the consolidation of bi-partisan hegemony, have undermined the integrity and authority of the state in the twenty-first century. This discussion is approached through analysis of the recent controversy surrounding the extradition of Jamaica citizen, Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke, to the United States on charges of firearms and drug trafficking.

Stuart Hall at Eighty

Stuart Hall at Eighty

Newspaper Representation of the Debates in the 2007 Jamaican General Election Campaign

This article deconstructs the newspaper representations of three debatesheld in 2007 during the Jamaican General Election campaign. The the-ory of social representation is used in this article to explain politicalbehaviour and outcomes. Representations are the images, words, sym-bols or phrases that are generated from people’s dialogic interaction thatsignify meanings. Content analysis of relevant articles covering the elec-toral campaign in the main print media in Jamaica forms the empiricalbasis for study. The majority of representations of the three main debateswere negative, revealing that political manifestos were largely ignoredand policy funding was not addressed. Significant issues such as crime,education, health, garrison politics, corruption and unemployment wereinadequately addressed, and the wider global context of these matterswas ignored. The consensus was that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)won two of the three debates, notably the leadership debate in whichthe Leader of the Opposition, Bruce Golding MP, performed more effec-tively than the then current Prime Minister, Portia Simpson-Miller ofthe People’s National Party (PNP). Social representation theory is usedto assess the types of political meanings generated by media coverageduring the General Election. It is suggested that the perceived success ofthe JLP candidates in the main debates was an important contribution tothe party’s overall electoral victory.Keywords: debate, electoral campaign, Jamaica, newspapers, politics,social representation theory.

‘Do You Remember the Days of Slav'ry?’ Connecting the Present with the Past in Contemporary Jamaica

In early 2006, the parish councilors of St Elizabeth, Jamaica, decided not to support plans for celebration of the abolition of slavery citing the position taken by National Hero Sir Alexander Bustamante, founding father of the Jamaica Labour Party, that ‘we should celebrate our achievements (but) we should not look back at our shame’. This article looks at this instance and others like it of ambivalence towards the memory of slavery and how it ought to be treated today. Main sources for the article are discussions in the public sphere, radio, newspaper and television debates on the subject, and interviews with key principals such as the chairwoman of the Committee for the Commemoration of the Abolition of Slavery as well as dissenting voices such as the St Elizabeth councilors during the period 2006–2007 in the run-up to commemorative activities.

Ideology and Educational Aims: The Case of Jamaica

This research is basically a descriptive study. Its purpose was to determine the extent to which the aims and policies of education under the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) differed from the aims and policies of education under the People's National Party (PNP). It was anticipated that, given the differing self-proclaimed ideological cleavages of the JLP (capitalism) and the PNP (socialism), there would be marked differences in their educational aims. The analysis revealved, however, that if there were ideological differences, these were not easily detected from the rhetoric of their educational aims. The differences observed were largely in terms of emphasis and in the particular means and priorities designed to achieve their stated objectives.

Jamaica Labour Party Local Government 2003-2006: Policy Divergence or Convergence?

The Jamaica Labour Party won The 2003 Local Government Elections in 2003 by a landslide victory. During the 3 year period ALL members of the JLP Local Government have displayed the highest level of effective leadership as they have said and done all the right things. However in terms of efficiency many may have not done things right as such there has been heavy criticism of many councils. Is this the fault of the Local Government or is it a failure of what is euphemistically called the Local Government Reform Programme (LGRP)? This paper will examine this policy issue and draw conclusions with regards to whether there is policy convergence or divergence.

Jamaica in Crisis: From Socialist to Capitalist Management

Prior to the October 1980 election in Jamaica,1 the administration of Michael Manley's People's National party (pnp) had tried for eight years to turn Jamaica into a showpiece of socialist economic management. Shortly after the success at the polls of the Jamaica Labour party (jlp) under Edward Seaga, the administration of President Ronald Reagan in the United States promised to turn Jamaica into a showcase of capitalist development in the Caribbean. After eight years of pnp socialism and four years of jlp capitalism, Jamaica's economy has failed to respond to either ideological medicine and continues to drift from crisis to crisis.

The Small State Alone: Jamaican Foreign Policy, 1977-1980

This study is a sequel to one done by this writer on the foreign policy of Jamaica from 1972 to 1977 (Lewis, 1981) and covers the remaining period during which the People's National Party (PNP), led by Prime Minister Michael Manley, presided over the government of the country.In elections held on October 30, 1980, the PNP government was decisively defeated by the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). The latter had, in the previous elections of December 15, 1976, retained only 13 seats in Jamaica's parliament. When the Jamaica Labour Party administration took office, as the party had promised in its election manifesto, it reversed the central planks of the domestic and foreign policies of the PNP administration and reestablished a close relationship with the United States as the main element of its domestic and foreign policies.