Economic Growth In Italy Research Articles

Analysis of Factors That Have Hampered Economic Growth in Italy

Italy's economic growth since 1990 faced domestic challenges, including structural issues, tax evasion, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and political corruption. Externally, as an EU member and participant in global economic forums, Italy's fiscal policy constraints and the need for a comprehensive strategy to foster economic development are evident. This article employs a multifaceted research approach to analyze the economic development of Italy in 1990. First, the documentary analysis includes a comprehensive review of the academic literature of various economists, the historical record of Italy and Europe, and the study of national institutions to understand the economic situation at that time. In addition, quantitative data analysis was conducted using economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and investment and trade data. These data were statistically analyzed to identify trends and implications for the development of the Italian economy. A combination of literature and data analysis methods were used to comprehensively analyze Italy's economic development since 1990 and to provide an overall understanding of both internal and external factors that influenced its economic development. Finally come out with recommendations for Italy's economic development that will help it to develop effective policies and strategies that will lead to a more sustainable path of economic growth.

Strengthening local economies through social capital: The role of cooperative firms in driving economic growth in Italy

AbstractThis paper aims to empirically explore the linkage between the cooperative sector and economic growth in Italian provinces (NUTS‐3), through a panel analysis covering the period between 2013 and 2019. We hypothesize that the cooperative sector can contribute to economic growth through its ability to generate social capital, thereby helping to mitigate market failures. The empirical analysis does not provide us with robust evidence of the positive connection between the cooperative sector as a whole and local economic growth. However, when we disaggregate the cooperative sector into ordinary and social cooperatives, we find intriguing results. Indeed, there is robust evidence of a negative relationship between the territorial distribution of ordinary cooperatives and economic growth, while for social cooperatives we find a positive relationship. We interpret these results as showing that the pursuit of general interest objectives, which allows the principle of mutuality to be extended to indirect forms of reciprocity, could make cooperative firms more effective in promoting the economic performance of territories. This is because they are more likely to generate bridging social capital that encourages the spread of generalized trust, a key factor in the advancement of modern market economies.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES’ ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This study aims to determine whether globalization affects economic growth in Euro Area countries or not and the direction of the affect. The data used are annually and cover the period from 2000 to 2017. In the study, economic growth which is the dependent variable represents the annual GDP growth rate, and globalization which is the independent variable represents KOF globalization. Variables other than globalization that affect economic growth are included in the model as instrumental variables. These instrumental variables are labour force participation rate, foreign direct investments, external balance of goods and services and gross fixed capital formation. Eberhardt and Teal’s (2012) Augmented Mean Group Estimator (AMG) was conducted to foresee long-term coefficients. Consequently, globalization has not same effects on economic growth in each euro area country. Globalization has increasing effects on the economic growth in Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain but decreasing effect in Ireland, Lithuania and Luxembourg.

Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy

Abstract We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.

Government size and economic growth in Italy: an empirical analyses based on new data (1861-2008)

Government size and economic growth in Italy: an empirical analyses based on new data (1861-2008)

Energy consumption and economic growth in Italy: A wavelet analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth with over eighty decades of Italian dataset. The wavelet analysis is applied to decompose series into different time scales whereas the frequency domain technique is used to examine time-specific shocks. Results of both unit root and stationarity tests indicate all series are integrated of order one, however, no evidence of long-run relationship is reported between energy consumption and economic development. We observe that the causal flow from economic growth to energy consumption becomes dominant at lower scales (up to 4 years), while at higher scales the strength of causality from energy use to growth declines. Therefore, the influence of energy consumption on economic growth can significantly be detected only at lower scales. If only original series and lower scales are considered, causal findings lean towards the feedback mechanism, with bidirectional causal relationship. This bidirectional causality is reinforced at all frequency bands, thus, causality from energy consumption to economic growth is observed only at frequencies between 1.3–1.8 (3.49–4.83 years) and 2.2–2.4 (2.61–2.85 years). However, when higher scales are considered, the causality test results are in line with the conservation hypothesis. More precisely, causality from economic growth to energy consumption is reinforced by frequency technique at higher time scales (8–32 years) but only at a frequency more than 0.6 (more than 10.47 years). The differences in the applied results provide alternative policy implications, justifying the use of wavelet approach to decompose time series into various time scales.

IS THE REINHART-ROGOFF DEBT THRESHOLD APPLICABLE TO ITALY?

This paper employs an extended production function to examine the relationship between central government debt and economic growth in Italy. The results show that the threshold of the central government debt ratio for Italy is estimated to be 105.00%, which is greater than the 90% debt threshold proposed by Reinhart and Rogoff. Besides, a higher growth rate of labor employment or investment/GDP ratio would raise the growth rate. Hence, the debt threshold proposed by Reinhart-Rogoff underestimates the debt threshold for Italy. The finding suggests that the debt ratio of 131.09% in 2019 is well above the debt threshold and is likely to be unsustainable.

Income Distribution, Consumption, and Economic Growth in Italy

The paper discusses Modigliani, Brumberg, and Ando’s life cycle hypothesis and its difficult acceptance in Italy over the 1960s and 1970s. The increasing attention to the effects of income redistribution on consumption coupled with the strong influence that post-Keynesian economics exercised on the theoretical and political debate of that time led to a widespread preference of Kaldor’s theory as over the life cycle as the best representation of Italian savings behavior.

Causality among CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Italy.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions (carbon dioxide emissions), energy consumption and economic growth in Italy, using annual data covering the period 1960-2011. The unit root tests results indicated that the variables are not stationary in levels but in their first differences. Subsequently, the Johansen cointegration test showed that there is a cointegrated vector between the examined variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) is used in order to find the causality relations among the variables. The empirical results of the study revealed that both in the short and long run there is a strong unidirectional causality relation between economic growth and CO2emissions with direction from economic growth to CO2 emissions. Finally, the impulse response functions indicated that a reduction in CO2 emissions has a positive effect on energy consumption, while it causes a decrease in economic growth.

Causality among CO<SUB align="right">2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy

Causality among CO<SUB align="right">2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy

Assessment of Commerce Potency on Economic Growth in Italy: Empirical Analysis

The link between exports, imports and economic growth in Italy has been extensively discussed by historiography. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in Italy. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of the World Bank for the periods between 1960 and 2015, was tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, Co integration analysis of the Vector Auto Regression Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the empirical results, we found that exports and imports have not any effect on economic growth. Also, we discovered, according to the Granger-Causality tests that there is no any relationship of causality between trade and economic growth. However, and according to the results of the correlation analysis, we found that trade and economic growth in Italy are positively correlated, meaning that the strategy economic posing by Italy is not efficacious to solve economic problems.

Productivity Growth in Italy: A Tale of a Slow-Motion Change

Productivity is the main factor holding back long-term economic growth in Italy. Since the second half of the 1990s, productivity growth has been feeble both by historical standards and compared with the other main euro area countries. Understanding the reasons for such a performance and finding the most effective policy levers is crucial to increase Italy’s potential growth rate. Against this background, we provide a detailed analysis of the data and a critical review of the available empirical evidence to identify both the structural weaknesses limiting productivity growth and the strengths of the Italian productive system that may support it looking forward. Since the end of the 1990s and more intensively since the second half of 2011, the reform effort has been particularly effective in the regulation of product and labor markets and industrial policy. On other factors which are very relevant for productivity dynamics, the reform action has been less effective so far.

Disaggregated energy consumption and economic growth in G-7 countries

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption (i.e., oil, natural gas, and coal) and economic growth in G-7 countries. For this purpose, the annual data from 1970 to 2013 is investigated using with panel bootstrap causality approach that allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among countries. The results reveal that the oil consumption causes economic growth in Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States; economic growth causes oil consumption in Germany and the United Kingdom; natural gas consumption causes economic growth in Italy, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom; economic growth causes natural gas consumption in Germany; coal consumption causes economic growth in Canada; and economic growth causes coal consumption in the United States.

Government Size and Economic Growth in Italy: A Time-series Analysis

The aim of this paper is to empirically assess the relationship between government size and economic growth. Using time series methodologies applied to annual data for Italy, the effect of public expenditure, unemployment, and fiscal reforms on economic activity have been analysed. The data used in these analyses have been collected and shown in Forte (2011). The analysis covered a very long period, 1861-2008. Our results show the presence of a non-linear relationship between the size of the public sector (measured by the share of government expenditure over GDP) and the economic growth rate for Italy. In general, the presence of an inverted “U-shape” curve, which emerges for the last two decades, suggests that expenditure cuts might be faster than GDP dynamic. This result is in line with recent empirical literature on this issue. Interestingly, for the monarchic years, it has been found that the zero budget constraint provoked a slower aggregate income variation.

Local banking and local economic growth in Italy: some panel evidence

ABSTRACTThis article provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian ‘province’) in Italy. A comprehensive data set is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.

Local Banking and Local Economic Growth in Italy: Some Panel Evidence

This paper provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level - the Italian "province") in Italy. A comprehensive dataset is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression (Cecchetti and Karrhoubi, 2013) in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.

What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy

The impact of protection on economic growth has enjoyed a revival in recent times, with the publication of a number of comparative quantitative papers. They all share a common weakness: they measure protection as the ratio of custom revenues to import value, which biases results if demand for imports is not perfectly inelastic. In this article, we show that the measure of protection matters. We estimate the James Anderson and Peter Neary (2005) Trade Restrictiveness Index for Italy from unification to the Great Depression. We suggest a different interpretation of some key moments of Italian trade policy and we show that the aggregate welfare losses were small in the long run and mostly related to protection on sugar in the 1880s and 1890s. We document that using different measures of protection affects results of the causal relation between trade policy on economic growth in Italy and in the United States. Accordingly, we argue that a systematic re-estimating of protection in the economic history of trade policy is needed.

Causes of the decline of economic growth in Italy with special reference to the post-euro period: a balance-of-payments approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the causes of the poor growth performance in Italy and the responsibility of the euro for this crisis. The theoretical approach applied is based on the balance-of-payments constraint hypothesis (known as Thirlwall's law), adapted to include internal and external imbalances. Our empirical analysis shows that both the extended model and the original Thirlwall's law over-predict the actual growth in Italy, suggesting that there are supply constraints that impede the economy from growing faster. Another conclusion is that part of the decline in economic growth is explained by the loss of competiveness during the euro period. A scenario analysis shows that a budget deficit and public debt discipline aiming at achieving the goals of the Stability Pact are not significant stimuli for faster growth. On the other hand, reducing the import dependence of the components of demand, or reducing the import and increasing the export shares in the economy, are the most effective policies for fostering growth in Italy.

Space matters: Reconstructing a Local-scale Okun's Law for Italy

The present study develops a local-scale analysis of Okun's law for short-term changes in district product and unemployment rate in 686 labour market areas in Italy (2004-2005) based on a Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The relationship between changes in district product and unemployment rate was poorly significant using both parametric and non-parametric (a-spatial) techniques being more intense when space is incorporated in the model. The GWR results pointed out the spatial patterns characterizing the Okun's law at the local scale. The elasticity of district income to unemployment rate showed important spatial variations being higher in dynamic rural districts around metropolitan areas. The highest model performance was found in specific areas of both northern and southern Italy. However, the classical Okun negative relationship between district product and unemployment rate was mainly observed in northern Italy while the reverse pattern was identified primarily in southern Italian districts. While providing a novel approach shedding light on the spatially-varied income-employment dynamics, GWR models allow evaluating the complex geography of economic growth in Italy. The use of local-scale data and spatial approaches may inform policies regulating job markets on the base of their territorial specificity. The present study develops a local-scale analysis of Okun's law for short-term changes in district product and unemployment rate in 686 labour market areas in Italy (2004-2005) based on a Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The relationship between changes in district product and unemployment rate was poorly significant using both parametric and non-parametric (a-spatial) techniques being more intense when space is incorporated in the model. The GWR results pointed out the spatial patterns characterizing the Okun's law at the local scale. The elasticity of district income to unemployment rate showed important spatial variations being higher in dynamic rural districts around metropolitan areas. The highest model performance was found in specific areas of both northern and southern Italy. However, the classical Okun negative relationship between district product and unemployment rate was mainly observed in northern Italy while the reverse pattern was identified primarily in southern Italian districts. While providing a novel approach shedding light on the spatially-varied income-employment dynamics, GWR models allow evaluating the complex geography of economic growth in Italy. The use of local-scale data and spatial approaches may inform policies regulating job markets on the base of their territorial specificity.

The relationship between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy

This study examines the relationship between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy over the period 1970–2006. Results of unit root tests show that all variables are non-stationary in their level form, but stationary in first differences form. The causal relationship between variables is examined using causality test in a vector autoregressive framework. Our empirical results show that CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth are not cointegrated. Moreover, the Toda and Yamamoto Granger non-causality test shows a bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and economic growth, as well as between CO2 emissions and energy consumption. Forecast error variance decompositions evidence that the errors in real per capita GDP are mainly due to uncertainty in GDP itself, while the errors in predicting the energy consumption and the CO2 emissions are sensitive to disturbances in the other two equations.