Island Endemic Species Research Articles

Islands are key for protecting the world's plant endemism.

Islands are renowned as evolutionary laboratories and support many species that are not found elsewhere1,2. Islands are also of great conservation concern, with many of their endemic species currently threatened or extinct3. Here we present a standardized checklist of all known vascular plants that occur on islands and document their geographical and phylogenetic distribution and conservation risk. Our analyses of 304,103 plant species reveal that 94,052 species (31%) are native to islands, which constitute 5.3% of the global landmass4. Of these, 63,280 are island endemic species, which represent 21% of global plant diversity. Three-quarters of these are restricted to large or isolated islands. Compared with the world flora, island endemics are non-randomly distributed within the tree of life, with a total of 1,005 billion years of unique phylogenetic history with 17 families and 1,702 genera being entirely endemic to islands. Of all vascular plants assigned International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation categories5, 22% are island endemics. Among these endemic species, 51% are threatened, and 55% of all documented global extinctions have occurred on islands. We find that of all single-island endemic species, only 6% occur on islands meeting the United Nations 30×30 conservation target. Urgent measures including habitat restoration, invasive species removal and ex situ programmes are needed to protect the world's island flora. Our checklist quantifies the uniqueness of island life, provides a basis for future studies of island floras, and highlights the urgent need to take actions for conserving them.

Niche filling predicts evolutionary trajectories in insular bird communities

Abstract Different theories have been proposed to explain the phenotypic changes observed in island lineages, but it remains unclear if predictable evolutionary trajectories can be identified within island communities. Using a 3D functional space approach, we tested whether insular endemic species tend to evolve towards apparent holes in niche space (expecting niche filling) or tend to become generalists, that is, moving towards the centre of the functional space (expecting niche expansion). We tested these two hypotheses in 378 insular endemic species from 24 islands of 8 archipelagos, including 177 prehistoric anthropogenically extinct species. Analyses were conducted with and without accounting for species size difference. We found that 57% of island endemic species evolved towards more unoccupied regions of the global morphospace (i.e. more distinct body sizes compared to the ones of their ancestors), suggesting a tendency for niche filling. When adjusted traits for body size, we found that half of the endemic species (50%) showed more distinct trait values than their ancestors. Results also revealed that certain dietary niches (terrestrial herbivores and nectarivores) evolved distinct body sizes more frequently. Differences noted between islands and archipelagos suggest that biogeographic factors may influence evolutionary trajectory and interactions between these two hypotheses. Our study confirms that extinct species occupied specific niches that have been left vacant, suggesting that these evolutionary ‘oddities’ could be more sensitive to extinction. Overall, it calls for a global assessment of the avian functional diversity lost from recent extinctions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

First sighting of a pair of Ryukyu robin Larvivora komadori Temminck, 1835 (Aves, Passeriformes) during breeding season on Jeju Island, Republic of Korea: a nesting attempt?

The Ryukyu robin (Larvivora komadori Temminck, 1835) is an endemic inhabitant of the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan. In 2018, we made several birding excursions to Jeju Island, Republic of Korea. Within the 1100 Altitude Wetland protected area on May 28 and May 30 we encountered a pair of birds, which, according to reference literature and bird guides we identifi ed as Larvivora komadori. That was the fi rst visual sighting of the Ryukyu robin during the breeding season on Jeju Island, which is separated from the nearest breeding site by more than 200 kilometers of open sea. This fact can be regarded as a potential ability for this endemic island species to spread to new islands. Possible pathways for natural introduction of the Ryukyu

Chromosome-Level Reference Genome of the Ponza Grayling (Hipparchia sbordonii), an Italian Endemic and Endangered Butterfly.

Islands are crucial evolutionary hotspots, providing unique opportunities for differentiation of novel biodiversity and long-term segregation of endemic species. Islands are also fragile ecosystems, where biodiversity is more exposed to environmental and anthropogenic pressures than on continents. The Ponza grayling, Hipparchia sbordonii, is an endemic butterfly species that is currently found only in two tiny islands of the Pontine archipelago, off the coast of Italy, occupying an area smaller than 10 km2. It has been classified as Endangered (IUCN) because of the extremely limited area of occurrence, population fragmentation, and the recent demographic decline. Thanks to a combination of different assemblers of long and short genomic reads, bulk transcriptome RNAseq, and synteny analysis with phylogenetically close butterflies, we produced a highly contiguous, chromosome-scale annotated reference genome for the Ponza grayling, including 28 autosomes and the Z sexual chromosomes. The final assembly spanned 388.61 Gb with a contig N50 of 14.5 Mb and a BUSCO completeness score of 98.5%. Synteny analysis using four other butterfly species revealed high collinearity with Hipparchia semele and highlighted 10 intrachromosomal inversions longer than 10 kb, of which two appeared on the lineage leading to H. sbordonii. Our results show that a chromosome-scale reference genome is attainable also when chromatin conformation data may be impractical or present specific technical challenges. The high-quality genomic resource for H. sbordonii opens up new opportunities for the accurate assessment of genetic diversity and genetic load and for the investigations of the genomic novelties characterizing the evolutionary path of this endemic island species.

Thirty years of conservation breeding: Assessing the genetic diversity of captive Livingstone's fruit bats.

Fruit bats (genus Pteropus) are typically island-endemic species important in seed dispersal and reforestation that are vulnerable to increased extinction risk. An effective method of reducing extinction risk in vulnerable species that cannot be conserved in their native habitat is establishing an ex-situ captive breeding programme. Due to anthropogenic threats and low population numbers, in the early 1990s, a captive breeding programme was established at Jersey Zoo, British Isles, for Critically Endangered Livingstone's fruit bats (Pteropus livingstonii). Here we use six polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess genetic diversity in the captive breeding population of Livingstone's fruit bats (P. livingstonii), 30 years after the programme's establishment, investigating change over generations and comparing our findings with published data from the wild population. We found no significant difference between the genetic diversity in the captive and wild populations of Livingstone's fruit bats (P. livingstonii), in both expected heterozygosity and allelic richness. The captive population has retained a comparable level of genetic diversity to that documented in the wild, and there has been no significant decline in genetic diversity over the last 30 years. We advise that a full pedigree of the paternal lineage is created to improve the management of the captive breeding programme and further reduce the possibility of inbreeding. However, it appears that the captive breeding programme is currently effective at maintaining genetic diversity at levels comparable to those seen in the wild population, which suggests reintroductions could be viable if genetic diversity remains stable in captivity.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Fossil-calibrated phylogenies of Southern cave wētā show dispersal and extinction confound biogeographic signal.

The biota of continents and islands are commonly considered to have a source-sink relationship, but small islands can harbour distinctive taxa. The distribution of four monotypic genera of Orthoptera on young subantarctic islands indicates a role for long-distance dispersal and extinction. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred from whole mtDNA genomes and nuclear sequences (45S cassette; four histones). We used a fossil and one palaeogeographic event to calibrate molecular clock analysis. We confirm that neither the Australian nor Aotearoa-New Zealand Rhaphidophoridae faunas are monophyletic. The radiation of Macropathinae may have begun in the late Jurassic, but trans-oceanic dispersal is required to explain the current distribution of some lineages within this subfamily. Dating the most recent common ancestor of seven island endemic species with their nearest mainland relative suggests that each existed long before their island home was available. Time estimates from our fossil-calibrated molecular clock analysis suggest several lineages have not been detected on mainland New Zealand, Australia, or elsewhere most probably due to their extinction, providing evidence that patterns of extinction, which are not consistently linked to range size or lineage age, confound biogeographic signal.

Seed flotation in some widespread, oceanic‐dispersed trees and their island‐endemic congeners

AbstractVariation in plant dispersal capabilities strongly influences the assembly of island plant communities. Many tropical plants have seeds capable of long‐distance, often oceanic, dispersal; in some cases, these taxa speciate into island interior endemics with reduced dispersal capabilities, though whether this is a general pattern is debated. Flotation times are highly variable among plants with oceanic dispersal and between such plants and their inland congeners. Here, we experimentally compared salt‐water flotation in three woody plant genera in Palau, Micronesia, comparing broadly distributed and island endemic species within each genus. The widespread Calophyllum inophyllum (with oceanic and vertebrate dispersal), C. soulattri (vertebrate dispersal), and Terminalia catappa had substantially longer flotation than their inland endemic relatives C. pelewense and T. crassipes. This supports the “Loss of dispersal ability” hypothesis for Calophyllum though, for Terminalia, additional phylogenetic information is needed to determine T. crassipes' sister species. Seed flotation in the widespread, oceanic dispersed Pandanus tectorius did not significantly differ from that of the Palau endemics P. palawensis and P. aimiriikensis. Our results highlight that differences among taxa in dispersal modes, speciation modes, and their interactions may influence the assembly of island floras.

A new small carder bee species from the eastern Canary Islands (Hymenoptera, Megachilidae, Anthidiini)

Recent field surveys in the eastern Canary Islands (Spain), followed by contributions of new occurrence records through the citizen science platform iNaturalist.com and the social media photo repository Flickr.com have revealed the presence of an overlooked small carder bee species (genus Pseudoanthidium Friese (Megachilidae: Anthidiini)) on the islands of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura. Here, we combined morphology, DNA barcodes (mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, COI) and ecological data (distribution, altitudinal ranges and environmental niche classification) to describe this species as Pseudoanthidium (Pseudoanthidium) jacobiisp. nov. We provide an illustrated description along with diagnostic morphological characters to separate it from P. (P.) canariense (Mavromoustakis, 1954), the only other congeneric species known from the neighbouring islands of La Gomera, Tenerife and Gran Canaria and from which it is separated by a genetic distance of 2.7%. We also evaluated the extent of shared environmental niche space among the two Pseudoanthidium species, and our results show a significant difference in elevation range as well as a very small (less than 1%) overlap between the modelled climatic niche of P. jacobii and that of P. canariense. Given the extremely restricted geographic distribution and the fragile and isolated nature of the habitat and host plants of this new island endemic species, we assign it an IUCN conservation status of “EN” (endangered) and discuss avenues for future research on the ecology and conservation of wild bees in the Canary Islands and neighbouring regions.

Non-invasive sampling reveals low mitochondrial genetic diversity for an island endemic species: The critically endangered Grenada Dove Leptotila wellsi.

As an island endemic with a decreasing population, the critically endangered Grenada Dove Leptotila wellsi is threatened by accelerated loss of genetic diversity resulting from ongoing habitat fragmentation. Small, threatened populations are difficult to sample directly but advances in molecular methods mean that non-invasive samples can be used. We performed the first assessment of genetic diversity of populations of Grenada Dove by (a) assessing mtDNA genetic diversity in the only two areas of occupancy on Grenada, (b) defining the number of haplotypes present at each site and (c) evaluating evidence of isolation between sites. We used non-invasively collected samples from two locations: Mt Hartman (n = 18) and Perseverance (n = 12). DNA extraction and PCR were used to amplify 1751 bps of mtDNA from two mitochondrial markers: NADH dehydrogenase 2 (ND2) and Cytochrome b (Cyt b). Haplotype diversity (h) of 0.4, a nucleotide diversity (π) of 0.00023 and two unique haplotypes were identified within the ND2 sequences; a single haplotype was identified within the Cyt b sequences. Of the two haplotypes identified, the most common haplotype (haplotype A = 73.9%) was observed at both sites and the other (haplotype B = 26.1%) was unique to Perseverance. Our results show low mitochondrial genetic diversity and clear evidence for genetically isolated populations. The Grenada Dove needs urgent conservation action, including habitat protection and potentially augmentation of gene flow by translocation in order to increase genetic resilience and diversity with the ultimate aim of securing the long-term survival of this critically endangered species.

Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species and plant functional strategies on the Canary Islands

AbstractAimOceanic islands possess unique floras with high proportions of endemic species. Island floras are expected to be severely affected by changing climatic conditions as species on islands have limited distribution ranges and small population sizes and face the constraints of insularity to track their climatic niches. We aimed to assess how ongoing climate change affects the range sizes of oceanic island plants, identifying species of particular conservation concern.LocationCanary Islands, Spain.MethodsWe combined species occurrence data from single‐island endemic, archipelago endemic and nonendemic native plant species of the Canary Islands with data on current and future climatic conditions. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees were used to assess the effect of climate change on species distributions; 71% (n = 502 species) of the native Canary Island species had models deemed good enough. To further assess how climate change affects plant functional strategies, we collected data on woodiness and succulence.ResultsSingle‐island endemic species were projected to lose a greater proportion of their climatically suitable area (x ̃ = −0.36) than archipelago endemics (x ̃ = −0.28) or nonendemic native species (x ̃ = −0.26), especially on Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, which are expected to experience less annual precipitation in the future. Moreover, herbaceous single‐island endemics were projected to gain less and lose more climatically suitable area than insular woody single‐island endemics. By contrast, we found that succulent single‐island endemics and nonendemic natives gain more and lose less climatically suitable area.Main ConclusionsWhile all native species are of conservation importance, we emphasise single‐island endemic species not characterised by functional strategies associated with water use efficiency. Our results are particularly critical for other oceanic island floras that are not constituted by such a vast diversity of insular woody species as the Canary Islands.

Invasive frogs show persistent physiological differences to elevation and acclimate to colder temperatures

The coqui frog (Eleutherodactylus coqui) was introduced to the island of Hawai'i in the 1980s and has spread across much of the island. Concern remains that this frog will continue to expand its range and invade higher elevation habitats where much of the island's endemic species are found. We determined whether coqui thermal tolerance and physiology change along Hawai'i’s elevational gradients. We measured physiological responses using a short-term experiment to determine baseline tolerance and physiology by elevation, and a long-term experiment to determine the coqui's ability to acclimate to different temperatures. We collected frogs from low, medium, and high elevations. After both the short and long-term experiments, we measured critical thermal minimum (CTmin), blood glucose, oxidative stress, and corticosterone levels. CTmin was lower in high elevation frogs than low elevation frogs after the short acclimation experiment, signifying that they acclimate to local conditions. After the extended acclimation, CTmin was lower in frogs acclimated to cold temperatures compared to warm-acclimated frogs and no longer varied by elevation. Blood glucose levels were positively correlated with elevation even after the extended acclimation, suggesting glucose may also be related to lower temperatures. Oxidative stress was higher in females than males, and corticosterone was not significantly related to any predictor variables. The extended acclimation experiment showed that coquis can adjust their thermal tolerance to different temperatures over a 3-week period, suggesting the expansion of coqui into higher elevation habitats may still be possible, and they may not be as restricted by cold temperatures as previously thought.

Strength of the 'island rule' in birds is positively associated with absence of avian predators.

The similar characteristics shared by island environments have been shown to lead to common patterns of adaptations in island species, commonly referred to as the 'insularity syndrome'. A well-known example is the 'island rule', where large species become smaller on islands and small species become larger, leading to well-known cases of dwarfism and gigantism. This pattern was recently verified on a global scale, but the mechanisms underlying it have been poorly investigated. Here, we focused on the role of released pressure from predation and competition experienced by island birds. Using 120 pairs of endemic island species and their mainland sister relatives, we first verified that the island rule was detected in our dataset, and then evaluated the effects of the numbers of raptors and interspecific competitors on the evolution of the insular species' body mass. We found a strong effect of predation on body mass evolution, with a stronger island rule for species occurring on islands with no raptors, while the pattern disappears in their presence. However, we did not find an effect of competition on this pattern. Our study shows the importance of considering ecological interactions for understanding patterns of body size evolution, and the exceptions to those patterns.

A population in perpetual motion: Highly dynamic roosting behavior of a tropical island endemic bat.

Although island endemic bats are a source of considerable conservation concerns, their biology remains poorly known. Here, we studied the phenology and roosting behavior of a tropical island endemic species: the Reunion free-tailed bat (Mormopterus francoismoutoui). This widespread and abundant species occupies various natural and anthropogenic environments such as caves and buildings. We set up fine-scale monitoring of 19 roosts over 27 months in Reunion Island and analyzed roost size and composition, sexual and age-associated segregation of individuals, as well as the reproductive phenology and body condition of individuals. Based on extensive data collected from 6721 individuals, we revealed a highly dynamic roosting behavior, with marked seasonal sex-ratio variation, linked to distinct patterns of sexual aggregation among roosts. Despite the widespread presence of pregnant females all over the island, parturition was localized in a few roosts, and flying juveniles dispersed rapidly toward all studied roosts. Our data also suggested a 7-month delay between mating and pregnancy, highlighting a likely long interruption of the reproductive cycle in this tropical bat. Altogether, our results suggest a complex social organization in the Reunion free-tailed bat, with important sex-specific seasonal and spatial movements, including the possibility of altitudinal migration. Bat tracking and genetic studies would provide additional insights into the behavioral strategies that shape the biology of this enigmatic bat species. The fine-scale spatiotemporal data revealed by our study will serve to the delineation of effective conservation plans, especially in the context of growing urbanization and agriculture expansion in Reunion Island.

A new Pipistrelle bat from the oceanic Island of Príncipe (Western Central Africa).

We describe a population of pipistrelle-like bats from Príncipe Island (Gulf of Guinea, Western Central Africa) as a new species based on the molecular and morphological characteristics of six specimens collected more than 30 years ago. The description of this new species was not possible until the traditionally entangled systematics of the whole pipistrelle group was clarified in recent years with the inclusion of molecular techniques and adequate species sampling. In this new taxonomic framework, the new species was clearly included within the dark-winged group of the recently described genus Pseudoromicia. The pipistrelles from Príncipe Island present a moderately inflated skull in lateral view with inner upper incisors that are moderately bicuspids and a baculum distinctly long with expanded tips. Besides these morphological characters, the new bat species is distinguished by its dwarfism, being the smallest species recognized within the genus. The ecology and conservation status of this endemic island species are unknown and field studies are urgently needed to evaluate the situation and conservation threats to this new species in its natural habitat.

Ear mite infection restructures otic microbial networks in conservation-reliant Santa Catalina Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis catalinae).

Ceruminous gland tumours are highly prevalent in the ear canals of Santa Catalina Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis catalinae). Previous work suggests that tumours may result from a combination of ectoparasites, disruption of the host-associated microbiome, and host immunopathology. More specifically, ear mite infection has been associated with broad-scale microbial dysbiosis marked by secondary bacterial infection with the opportunistic pathogen Staphylococcus pseudintermedius. Together, ear mites and S. pseudintermedius probably sustain chronic inflammation and promote conditions suitable for tumour development. In the present study, we expanded upon this framework by constructing otic microbial community networks for mite-infected and uninfected foxes sampled in 2017-2019. Across sampling years, we observed consistent signatures of microbial dysbiosis in mite-infected ear canals, including reduced microbial diversity and shifted abundance towards S. pseudintermedius. Network analysis further revealed that mite infection disrupts overall community structure. In mite-infected networks, interaction strengths between taxa were generally weaker, and numerous subnetworks disappeared altogether. We also found that two strains of S. pseudintermedius connected to the main network, suggesting that multistrain biofilm formation may be occurring. In contrast, S. pseudintermedius is peripheral in the uninfected network, with its only connections including a second strain of S. pseudintermedius and the possible competitor Acinetobacter rhizosphaerae. Finally, the lineup of potential keystone taxa shifted across disease states. Fusobacteria spp., a carcinogenesis-promoting microbe, assumed a keystone role in the mite-infected community. Considered together, these findings provide insights into how mite infection may destabilize the microbiome and ultimately contribute to tumour development in this island endemic species.

Near‐shore island lizard fauna shaped by a combination of human‐mediated and natural dispersal

AbstractAimIsland biotas provide opportunities to study colonization and adaptation to novel environments. Islands, especially near‐shore islands, may have a long record of human habitation such that some lineages result from human‐assisted introductions. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses with fossil data and historical specimen records to reconstruct colonization histories, characterize among‐island divergence and assess the role of humans in shaping the evolutionary history of lizards inhabiting a near‐shore island archipelago.LocationChannel Islands and adjacent mainland of California, United States.TaxaWestern fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), southern alligator lizard (Elgaria multicarinata), common side‐blotched lizard (Uta stansburiana).MethodsWe sequenced mitochondrial DNA (ND1, cyt‐b) from each of three lizard species, covering their entire island distributions plus the adjacent mainland. For each, we estimated diversity within and among each island, obtained maximum likelihood bootstrapped phylogenies, constructed haplotype networks and tested for population expansion. We used museum specimen records and microfossil evidence to infer colonization scenarios.ResultsSceloporus occidentalis is characterized by a single island‐colonization event, and exhibits the deepest divergences from mainland relatives and the highest among‐island divergence. Elgaria multicarinata and Uta stansburiana each have at least three distinct colonization events, with fossil and historical data indicating that some of these occurred after humans arrived to the islands.Main ConclusionsThe evolution of Channel Island lineages for two lizard taxa has been mediated by ancient and contemporary anthropogenic activity, while the evolution of the third is shaped by natural dispersal and vicariance caused by sea‐level rise. Genetic divergence corroborates the treatment of S. occidentalis as an endemic island species, Sceloporus becki. The unique histories of these three taxa are synthesized with other Channel Island lineages highlighting that taxa inhabiting islands with long histories of human activity should be carefully studied to assess the role of people in facilitating colonization and subsequent gene flow.

Integrating morphology with phylogenomics to describe four island endemic species of Temnothorax from Sicily and Malta (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Temnothorax (Myrmicinae, Crematogastrini) is one of the most diverse Holarctic ant genera, and new taxonomic advancements are still frequent worldwide. The Mediterranean region, a global biodiversity hotspot characterized by a complex geographic history, is home to a substantial portion of its described diversity. Sicily is the region’s largest island and, as ongoing investigations are revealing, it is inhabited by a long-overlooked but highly diverse ant fauna that combines multiple biogeographic influences. We combined qualitative and quantitative morphology of multiple castes with phylogenomic analysis based on ultra-conserved elements (UCEs) to describe four species of Temnothorax endemic to Sicily and the neighboring Maltese Islands (Sicilian Channel). Three of these species, T. marae Alicata, Schifani & Prebus sp. nov., T. poldii Alicata, Schifani & Prebus sp. nov. and T. vivianoi Schifani, Alicata & Prebus sp. nov., are new to science, while a redescription clarifies the identity of T. lagrecai (Baroni Urbani, 1964). These descriptions highlight the current difficulties of delimiting monophyletic Temnothorax species groups based on morphological characters. The intra-insular endemicity patterns we revealed highlight the importance of Mediterranean paleogeography to contemporary ant diversity and distribution in the region.

New Zealand endemic open‐habitat specialist, the Black‐fronted Tern (Chlidonias albostriatus), experienced population expansion during Pleistocene glaciation and recent decline

Understanding how climatic and environmental changes, as well as human activities, induce changes in the distribution and population size of avian species refines our ability to predict future impacts on threatened species. Using multilocus genetic data, we show that the population of a threatened New Zealand endemic open‐habitat specialist, the Black‐fronted Tern Chlidonias albostriatus – in contrast to forest specialists – expanded during the last glacial period. The population has decreased subsequently despite the availability of extensive open habitat after human arrival to New Zealand. We conclude that population changes for open habitat specialists such as Black‐fronted Terns in pre‐human New Zealand were habitat‐dependent, similar to Northern Hemisphere cold‐adapted species, whereas post‐human settlement populations were constrained by predators independent of habitat availability, similar to other island endemic species.

Climate change likely to increase co-occurrence of island endemic and invasive wildlife

Climate change is altering the distribution of wildlife across the globe. These distributional changes, paired with the environmental and vegetative shifts that spurred them, are likely to change co-occurrence patterns and interspecific interactions of native and invasive wildlife. A mesocosm of global change, we worked on Sanibel Island; a low-lying ∼4,900 ha barrier island in southwestern Florida, USA. Sanibel Island possessed a freshwater interior lined with mangrove forests to the north. Sanibel was ∼50% developed, ∼50% conserved, hydrologically degraded, shrub-encroached, and susceptible to inundation by sea-level rise. We used a Bayesian multispecies occupancy modeling approach to investigate how the effects of climate change might change co-occurrence patterns of 2 native island-endemic species (Sanibel Island rice rat [Oryzomys palustris sanibeli]; insular hispid cotton rat [Sigmodon hispidus insulicola]) and 1 exotic invasive species (black rat [Rattus rattus]). We found that co-occurrence is likely to increase between cotton rats and black rats with unknown impacts on interspecific interactions. We also found that climate change may threaten the persistence of cotton rats and black rats on Sanibel Island, but not rice rats so long as mangrove forests persist. Broadly our research demonstrates the importance of investigating interactions between climate change and co-occurrence when assessing contemporary and future wildlife distributions.