Irish National Election Study Research Articles

Brexit and prosperity but defeat: the economic vote conundrum in the 2020 Irish election

ABSTRACT At face, Ireland's economy had staged a remarkable recovery by 2020 since the devastating impact of the Global Financial Crisis. The economy was the fastest growing in Europe, unemployment had reached record lows, and Ireland's debt was back to its lowest level since 2009. The traditional economic voting model assumes voters punish outgoing governments for poor economic performance by voting against them but rewards incumbents for a sound economy by voting for them. Nevertheless, Irish voters delivered a stunning rebuke to the Fine Gael government in 2020, registering an incumbent administration's sixth-worst performance since 1932, raising questions about the applicability of the economic vote. Using the 2020 Irish National Election Study, our contribution unpacks this apparent puzzle. We uncover that macroeconomic conditions were less rosy than at first sight, a pattern recognised by voters. We find the economic vote was alive and well, with voter economic perceptions, and their views on income redistribution (and taxes/spending) having a potent effect on the vote. Brexit, as an economic issue, however, was not influential in shaping the vote. The Fine Gael challenge, and the answer to the conundrum, was most voters perceived the economy was lackluster and the government was on the wrong side of economic policy preferences of most voters.

Predicting vote choice in the 2020 Irish general election

ABSTRACT This research note has two functions. It first sets the scene for this special issue using the 2020 Irish National Election Study (INES), which comprises several discrete data sets. The note also reports on findings from one part of the INES – an online poll of voters of polling day, which included a battery of questions related to attitudes and behaviours relevant to national politics. The note provides an empirical analysis of the vote choice in this election. Rather than taking a theory-testing approach, we use a more data-driven strategy and identify the key variables in the data set that are of relevance to an understanding of vote choice. Our findings support the views of other recent commentaries of Irish elections that Irish electoral politics is undergoing major transformation. The new electoral politics that is emerging is personified by a clear left vs. right divide in which strongly held ideological positions separate the voters of the main parties.

Environmentalism undercover: The environmental dimension of public support for domestic water charges

Research shows that environmental attitudes can affect support for environmentally-beneficial policies. However, it is unclear whether environmental attitudes can influence support for such policies when they are not being primarily framed through an environmental lens. Using data from the 2011 Irish National Election Study, this paper examines the issue using the case of support for the reintroduction of water charges. This was a contentious issue with debate largely focusing on the proposal as an austerity measure, but the proposal also had environmental implications. The results find that while individuals' willingness to prioritise environmental protection over economic growth did not affect their support for water charges, their willingness to make individual sacrifices for the environment did. Moreover, voters’ position on this policy impacted their vote choice. The findings are particularly important given the struggles that governments are facing in implementing environmental taxes and charges.

The unfaithful Irish voter

ABSTRACTLocal and European elections have been held simultaneously since 1999. These offer an interesting context to look at the importance of party, both across each pair of elections and across these elections and future voting intentions. Analysis of behaviour in these elections suggests the influence of party is far from dominant. Exit polls and the 2002-7 Irish National election Study show around half of all voters supporting different parties in the two elections, and in some cases expressing vote intentions for the next general election that is different again. The elections of 2019 mark a low point in such cohesion.

Opposition to Irish Travellers’ halting sites in the Republic of Ireland: Realistic group conflict or symbolic politics?

Widely reviled by even well-educated citizens of the Republic of Ireland, Travellers rank at the very bottom of today’s multiracial Irish society according to most any attitudinal measure. This research note uses multivariate ordinary least-squares regression of the 2007 Irish National Election Study to test two prominent explanations of such prejudice. Overall, data analysis confirms the theories of realistic group conflict and symbolic politics about equally. In particular, unemployment, occupation, and perceptions of crime support the first interpretation, while results for conservatism and multiculturalism lend credence to the second.

Internet Effects in Times of Political Crisis: Online Newsgathering and Attitudes toward the European Union.

This paper evaluates the influence of online news consumption on attitudes toward the European Union in a context of protracted economic crisis. Using data from the 2011 Irish National Election Study, we combine location-specific information on broadband availability with respondent geo-location data, which facilitates causal inference about the effects of online news consumption via instrumental variable models. Results show that Irish citizens who source political information online are more prone to blame the EU for the poor state of the economy than those who do not. There is evidence of preference reinforcement among those with negative predispositions toward the EU, but not among pro-EU citizens. We complement this analysis with a study of voting behavior in the European Fiscal Compact Referendum, employing a similar methodological approach. The results from this second survey confirm the anti-EU influence of online news consumption among Irish citizens, although evidence suggests a pro-EU effect among voters who browsed the website of the politically neutral Irish Referendum Commission. Our paper contributes to the literature on public opinion, the EU, and political attitudes in times of crisis.

Wired Voters: The Effects of Internet Use on Voters’ Electoral Uncertainty

This article examines whether voters’ use of the internet as a source of political news affects the extent to which they are certain of their vote choice in national-level elections. It employs data pertaining to the 2011 general election in Ireland, linking geographical information on broadband coverage with individual-level public opinion data from the 2011 Irish National Election Study. The resultant dataset allows the adoption of a quasi-experimental approach in our examination of the effects of online political newsgathering on voters’ electoral uncertainty. Implementing instrumental variables, the study finds consistent evidence of a causal relationship between the use of the internet as a source of political information and increased levels of political uncertainty among voters,ceteris paribus. These findings are robust to a range of model specifications and alternative operationalizations of dependent and independent variables.

Mediating Elections in Ireland: Empirical Evidence from the 2011 General Election

Information is a crucial ingredient in election campaigns. When voters form or change opinions they are widely thought to do so on the basis of information, attention to the information, predispositions, and the interaction of these (Zaller 1992). And voters usually receive most political information, or at least most intensely, during the course of an election campaign. So campaigns should lead to voters reinforcing or changing opinions, which in turn may lead to changes in the vote choice, and this should happen primarily through the media. However, such general arguments may have a limited application to Ireland; politicians may be able to influence voters’ decisions unmediated by news outlets because of the small size of constituencies. A majority of Irish voters are likely to receive direct contact from parties (55 percent according to the Irish National Election Study (INES) 2011), most often in the form of door-to-door canvassing. Furthermore, decisions might be made before the campaign starts; in 2002 and 2007 71 and 69 percent of respondents, respectively, reported that they had made their decision as to which party to give their first preference vote to before the campaign officially started (own analysis of INES 2002-2007).

Intra-individual variation of extreme response style in mixed-mode panel studies

It is well known that the self-report survey method suffers from many idiosyncratic biases, such as varying response styles due to different survey modes used. Using latent state-trait theory it is argued that response styles will also vary intra-individually, depending on the particular survey situation. In this study we examine intra-individual variation in extreme response style behavior (ERS) using mixed-mode survey panel data as a quasi-experimental setting. Data from the Irish National Election Study panel are used, which consists of repeated face-to-face and mail-back surveys. Latent transition analysis is used to detect switches in ERS, distinguishing ‘stable’ and ‘volatile’ respondents in terms of their response style. Overall, ERS is inflated in the intermediate mail component of the panel, whereas preliminary analyses suggest that low education and ideological extremity are drivers of that change. Results are discussed with regards to measurement errors in mixed-mode and longitudinal surveys.

Lost in Transmission: Evaluating Media Bias Towards the European Union

Previous studies suggest that citizens' attitudes towards the European Union (EU) are influenced by media coverage of EU institutions and policies. To date, empirical studies have investigated the effects of TV and newspaper consumption on euro-skepticism. However, the role of the Internet remains under-explored. In this study we combine data on broadband availability with respondent geo-location data from the 2011 Irish National Election Study, which allows us to measure whether respondents live in an area with broadband coverage. We use this dataset to perform a quasi-experimental analysis that identif es the e ffect of online news-gathering on citizens' evaluations of the extent to which the European Union and the Euro are culpable for the current economic crisis. To allow for heterogeneous treatment effects, we implement local average response functions (LARF) in our analysis. We find that those citizens who source political information online are more prone to blame the EU for (mis)managing the current economic crisis than those who do not.

Wired Voters: The Effects of Internet Use on Voters’ Electoral Uncertainty

This paper examines whether voters’ use of the Internet as a source of political news affects the extent to which they are certain of their vote choice in national-level elections. We employ data pertaining to the 2011 general election in Ireland, linking geographical information on broadband coverage with individual-level public opinion data from the 2011 Irish National Election Study. The resultant dataset allows us to adopt a quasi-experimental approach in our examination of the effects of online political newsgathering on voters’ electoral uncertainty. Implementing instrumental variables, we find consistent evidence of a causal relationship between use of the Internet as a source of political information and increased levels of political uncertainty among voters, ceteris paribus. Our findings are robust to a range of model specifications and alternative operationalizations of dependent and independent variables.

Can the Internet Reinvent Democracy?

The internet has been expected to modify the very nature of the political discourse by delivering a democratic surplus. It has frequently been regarded as the medium though which the right balance between participation and representation can be achieved. The vary nature of the medium has generated great levels of interest and debate on what type of political activity could be performed online. This paper studies the heuristics of online participation in Ireland and, by addressing the issue of who participates online, it investigates the type of scenario that can be expected to develop in the near future. Using survey data from the Irish National Election Study 2007, this article offers an insight on the process of gathering politically relevant information online and on whether such an activity may lead to further political engagement. Evidence of quite limited but possibly escalating forms of online engagement is found.

Attitudes Towards Women in Politics: Gender, Generation and Party Identification in Ireland

This article analyses the effects of gender, generation and party support towards a greater inclusion of women in politics in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It explores attitudes on this issue using the same question in the Irish National Election Study and the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey. The article documents a consistent gender gap in both polities that persists across the generations, despite controls for socio-demographic factors. It also reveals an unexpected generational effect that we explain as the enduring legacy of politicisation to womens rights during the 1970s. Support among party identifiers for more women in politics follows predictable lines, yet gender and generational patterns persist. The gender gap and generational patterns found in the two polities on the island provide reason for concern among those committed to gender equality in representation.

Pragmatists, Ideologues and the General Law of Curvilinear Disparity: The Case of the Irish Labour Party

In this article we examine the opinion structure of Irish Labour party members and supporters. Our purpose is to test May's law of curvilinear disparity by dividing party members into two groups as outlined by Kitschelt. By focusing on ideological differences within political parties Kitschelt identifies two types of members: ideologues and pragmatists. We use two individual-level data sets: the Labour Leadership Election Study (LLES) and the Irish National Election Study (INES), to test May's law. We find some limited support for May's law and Kitschelt's extensions to this model.

The Irish national election study: Puzzles and priorities

The Irish national election study: Puzzles and priorities