Ireland's Energy Research Articles

Impact of urbanization, economic growth, FDI, and trade openness on energy demand in Ireland: An ARDL approach

Abstract This research study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) paradigm to examine the effects of trade openness, urbanization, economic growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on energy demand in Ireland. This thorough theoretical framework anticipates a relationship between energy demand and trade, foreign direct investment, and urbanization. This study demonstrates both short- and long-run cointegration among the variables employing an ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) bounds-testing method for the data set period from 1972 to 2021. Additionally, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) were utilized in the study to verify the results' robustness. Nonetheless, this analysis discovers that trade openness and rising GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita increase energy consumption. The results show that for every 1% increase in GDP, energy consumption increases by 0.967%. On the flip side, energy consumption in Ireland is declining due to increased urbanization and foreign direct investment. The results show that for every 1% increase in urbanization, energy usage decreases by 1.738%. The investigation shows that Ireland's energy usage is strongly impacted by trade liberalization, FDI, urbanization, and economic expansion. Findings like these can help policymakers and stakeholders manage and optimize energy usage in the context of urbanization, economic expansion, foreign direct investment, and global trade. The report recommends sustainable energy planning and policy initiatives to strike a healthy balance between meeting the increasing demand for energy and protecting the environment.

Unlocking the potential: Insights from industry on barriers, solutions and policy gaps in Ireland's energy storage sector

The energy storage sector across Europe faces many financial, regulatory and policy barriers which has to date hindered development in many countries. This study documents industry perspectives from Ireland, a country which requires a significant increase in the development of energy storage due to security of supply concerns, its isolation from Europe’s central transmission network and its reliance on wind energy as a primary intermittent renewable energy resource. Using focus groups and a survey with the renewable energy and storage sector, we document perspectives on the critical barriers, innovative solutions and policy gaps identified by industry stakeholders and policy makers. Our participants believe energy storage will play a crucial role in unlocking Ireland’s substantial wind energy potential in order to meet its energy security and climate aspirations. However, our respondents suggest that unlocking this potential will require a coherent national energy storage strategy designed to reduce curtailment, identify storage technologies with duration-specific targets and establish a more comprehensive renewable energy plus storage power procurement mechanism designed for the Irish market which supports the grid, rewards low carbon technologies and reduces emissions.

Understanding public preferences towards Ireland's offshore wind sector: A study on renewable energy trade, public involvement, and setback distance

We examine the preferences for offshore wind farms involving different levels of participation, distances to shore and energy export using a choice experiment in Ireland. Respondents are willing to make monetary trade-offs to permit offshore wind development involving trade in renewable electricity. However, they prefer developments that retain wind energy in Ireland rather than export and ventures which involve high levels of participation located further from the shoreline. We find significant preference heterogeneity with respect to participation and trade. Women have stronger preferences for a higher level of engagement in the development process than men, are less supportive of exports, are more likely to indicate their uncertainty in the face of potential environmental impacts posed by offshore wind but are equally knowledgeable about the industry.

Kitepower Deploying Airborne Wind Energy in Ireland

Kitepower Deploying Airborne Wind Energy in Ireland

Prospective roles for green hydrogen as part of Ireland's decarbonisation strategy

In recent decades, governments and society have been making increasing efforts to address and mitigate climate change by reducing emissions and decarbonising energy generation. Ireland has invested greatly in renewable electricity, installing 4 GW of wind capacity since 2002, and has set assertive energy targets, such as the aim to reduce overall emissions by 51% by 2030. Nonetheless, considerable acceleration is needed in the decarbonisation of the country's energy sector. This paper investigates the potential role hydrogen can play in Ireland's energy transition, proposing hydrogen as an energy vector and storage medium that may help the country achieve its targets and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Through literature review, research and from industry insights, the current state of the Irish energy sector is analysed, and recommendations are made as to how, where and when hydrogen can be integrated into the decarbonisation of Ireland's electricity, heating and transport. It is concluded that; with significant effort from the government, policymakers, industry and organisations; the effective deployment of hydrogen technologies in Ireland could avoid up to 6.1 MtCO2eq of emissions annually, reflecting a trend observed in many other developed countries in which hydrogen plays an important part in the path to a low-carbon future. Prospective roles for hydrogen in Ireland include renewable energy storage and grid balancing through the deployment of Power-to-Gas systems, a replacement for fossil natural gas in the gas grid for backup electricity production as well as industry and heating requirements, and the use of hydrogen as a fuel for heavy transport.

Does financial stability matter for environmental degradation?

There is a body of evidence that financial development contributes to the quality of the environment, either positively or negatively. However, a limited number of studies consider the effect of financial stability or financial risk on environmental degradation. As part of the proposed research, the present study contributes to the existing literature on asymmetric financial stability's impact on Ireland's environmental quality, as a major gap needs to be added to the literature. Based on this aim, the present study explores the effect of financial stability on environmental degradation in Ireland while controlling primary energy consumption, economic growth, and renewable energy in Ireland. The study employs a novel Fourier autoregressive distributed lag model (FARDL) approach for Ireland, covering the period 1990Q1‐2019Q4 with quarterly data. FARDL cointegration test results indicate a long‐term relationship between financial stability, primary energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions. The outcomes from the long‐term coefficient estimation model based on the FARDL model reveal that (i) financial stability leads to a decrease in environmental degradation in Ireland; (ii) renewable energy consumption promotes environmental sustainability; (iii) primary energy consumption has a negative effect on Ireland's environmental quality. These results denote that Ireland should enhance financial stability and promote renewable energy to reduce fossil fuel consumption to achieve net‐zero targets by 2050. Ireland to implement long‐term financial stability policies to fill the emission gap and achieve a net zero emissions target by 2050. Specific policy recommendations for Ireland's environmental policies are also discussed in the study.

Influence of input costs and levelised cost of energy on wind power growth

Offshore wind energy costs have fallen significantly since the initial installations of the early 1990's. While installation costs for offshore wind are higher than many other sources of low carbon energy, the relative increase in capacity factor from onshore leads to higher energy yields, meaning that the unit cost or the levelised cost of energy for offshore wind is becoming increasingly competitive. In this study, a methodology is defined for modelling ranges of levelised cost for offshore wind, analysis shows the mean values of levelised cost of offshore wind in Ireland could be as low as 122 €/MWh. However, when variables such as capital expenditure, cost of finance, variable capacity factors and commodity price shifts are considered, simulations show a large range in potential outcomes, with approximately 60% of the scenarios falling between 108 €/MWh to 137 €/MWh. The methodology and results assist decision making for investment purposes, and in determining the level of support required for offshore wind energy in Ireland. Understanding the financial components of these large-scale projects and ensuring returns on investment will ultimately lead to a reduction in CO2 intensity for electricity production in Ireland from the current levels of 316 kg CO2-eq/MWh.

TIM: modelling pathways to meet Ireland's long-term energy system challenges with the TIMES-Ireland Model (v1.0)

Abstract. Ireland has significantly increased its climate mitigation ambition, with a recent government commitment to reduce greenhouse gases by an average of 7 % yr−1 in the period to 2030 and a net-zero target for 2050, underpinned by a series of 5-year carbon budgets. Energy systems optimisation modelling (ESOM) is a widely used tool to inform pathways to address long-term energy challenges. This article describes a new ESOM developed to inform Ireland's energy system decarbonisation challenge. The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) is an optimisation model of the Irish energy system, which calculates the cost-optimal fuel and technology mix to meet future energy service demands in the transport, buildings, industry, and agriculture sectors, while respecting constraints in greenhouse gas emissions, primary energy resources, and feasible deployment rates. TIM is developed to take into account Ireland's unique energy system context, including a very high potential for offshore wind energy and the challenge of integrating this on a relatively isolated grid, a very ambitious decarbonisation target in the period to 2030, the policy need to inform 5-year carbon budgets to meet policy targets, and the challenge of decarbonising heat in the context of low building stock thermal efficiency and high reliance on fossil fuels. To that end, model features of note include future-proofing with flexible temporal and spatial definitions, with a possible hourly time resolution, unit commitment and capacity expansion features in the power sector, residential and passenger transport underpinned by detailed bottom-up sectoral models, cross-model harmonisation, and soft-linking with demand and macro models. The paper also outlines a priority list of future model developments to better meet the challenge of deeply decarbonising energy supply and demand, taking into account the equity, cost-effectiveness, and technical feasibility. To support transparency and openness in decision-making, TIM is available to download under a Creative Commons licence.

No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland

The Irish Government recently unveiled plans to have 70% of electricity in the state generated from renewable energy sources by 2030. Currently very little electricity is generated by solar photovoltaic in Ireland. In this study, a real options framework is applied to assess the economic feasibility of utility-scale solar in Ireland. Initially, electricity prices are identified as the main source of uncertainty and the Least Square Monte Carlo method is used to price the real option. The findings are that, in the absence of comprehensive policy support, large-scale investment in solar in Ireland is not commercially viable and that, where the real option has value, the optimal strategy is to defer investment. Sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust and the analysis allows investors to make an informed bid to the newly introduced Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS). When policy support is introduced, a large real option value is obtained, and utility scale solar investment is profitable. The implications are that solar-specific policy supports may work better than policies that include all renewable technologies because the dominance of onshore wind energy in Ireland may price other renewable sources out.

Least cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050.

Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties.

Forecasting energy demand, wind generation and carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland using evolutionary neural networks

The ability to accurately predict future power demands, power available from renewable resources and the environmental impact of power generation is vital to the energy sector for the purposes of planning, scheduling and policy making. Machine learning techniques, neural networks in particular, have proven to be very effective methods for addressing these challenging forecasting problems. This research utilizes the powerful evolutionary optimisation algorithm, covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy, as a means of training neural networks to predict short term power demand, wind power generation and carbon dioxide intensity levels in Ireland over a two month period. The network is trained over one month and then tested over the following month. A neural network trained with covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy performs very competitively when compared to other state of the art prediction methods when forecasting Ireland's energy needs, providing fast convergence, more accurate predictions and robust performance. The covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy trained network also gives accurate predictions when predicting multiple time steps into the future.

Solar Energy in Ireland – A Position Paper

Solar Energy in Ireland – A Position Paper

A detailed assessment of resource of biomethane from first, second and third generation substrates

This paper details the analysis of biochemical methane potential (BMP) assessment of 83 substrates, which may be deemed as: first generation substrates (food crops); second generation (grasses and wastes); and third generation (seaweed). Significant variation in the BMP of a substrate may be found depending on for example, season and method of harvest. This could lead to significant discrepancy between energy production at the design stage and in operation of the facility. For example the BMP of dairy slurry varied from 175 L CH4 kg−1 VS in autumn (cattle fed on concentrate at end of farming year) to 239 L CH4 kg−1 VS in the summer when cattle are fed fresh grass. Grass ranged from 156 (for hay) to 433 L CH4 kg−1 VS for first cut baled silage. Saccharina latissima (brown seaweed) generated a higher BMP 36.4 m3 CH4 t−1 than summer dairy slurry 16 m3 CH4 t−1. In terms of a national resource, the cheapest and most sustainable source of biomethane will be from wastes, but the resource is finite. Biomethane from wastes could satisfy 18.4% of transport energy in Ireland. Larger resources will require third generation substrates such as seaweed.

Congested spaces, contested scales – A review of spatial planning for wind energy in Ireland

The achievement of Ireland's renewable energy targets requires an approximate doubling of installed onshore wind capacity by 2020. However, the growing accumulation of new wind energy networks in the landscape is encountering increasingly trenchant social and political resistance. This dilemma suggests an enhanced role for national scale strategic spatial planning to tighten centralised spatial control in order to more precisely steer developments to selected locations. However, to date the Irish government has avoided greater centralised coordination, preferring instead to devolve planning responsibilities to the local scale, which has resulted in highly disjointed and heterogeneous policy settings. Drawing on recent academic interest in the depoliticisation of strategic spatial planning, this paper seeks to interrogate why Ireland has adopted this particular scale of governance for wind energy planning. It is argued that the approach is a deliberate scalar strategy designed to disavow and displace a contentious public policy issue as part of a wider post-political management of dissent. In order to explore the opportunities for more repoliticised and reflexive scalar deliberation in framing national renewable energy technology and strategic policy choices, a structured review of local wind energy strategies is presented. It is concluded that by bringing a focus on the differentiated socio-spatial contexts of particular places, it could serve to trigger much wider political debate around the spatial challenges associated with the roll-out of onshore wind energy networks in highly congested and contested spaces, and the possibilities for alternative energy pathways.

Benchmarking Environmental Impacts of Peat Use for Electricity Generation in Ireland—A Life Cycle Assessment

The combustion of peat for energy generation accounts for approximately 4.1% of Ireland’s overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with current levels of combustion resulting in the emission of 2.8 Mt of CO2 per annum. The aim of this research is to evaluate the life cycle environmental impacts of peat use for energy generation in Ireland, from peatland drainage and industrial extraction, to transportation, combustion, and subsequent after-use of the cutaway area, utilising Irish-specific emission factors. The environmental impacts considered are global warming potential, acidification potential, and eutrophication potential. In addition, the cumulative energy demand of the system is evaluated. Previous studies on the environmental impact of peat for energy in Ireland relied on default Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission factors (EFs). This research utilises Irish-specific EFs and input data to reduce uncertainty associated with the use of default IPCC EFs, and finds that using default IPCC EFs overestimates the global warming potential when compared to Irish-specific EFs by approximately 2%. The greatest contribution to each of the environmental impacts considered arises from emissions generated during peat combustion, which accounts for approximately 95% of each of the environmental impact categories considered. Other stages of the life-cycle, such as impacts emanating from the peat extraction area, fossil fuel usage in harvesting and transportation machinery, and after-use of the cutaway area have much smaller effects on overall results. The transformation of cutaway peatlands to different after-use alternatives has the potential to mitigate some of the effects of peatland degradation and peat combustion.

‘Knowledge is power’ – making sense of wind farm data

The Irish wind energy sector is booming. In 2012, Irish wind farms supplied enough energy to provide about 15% of Ireland’s electricity demand and power 1.12 million households. In March 2014, The Irish Wind Energy Association (IWEA), an organisation committed to the promotion of wind energy in Ireland, highlighted a planned €7 billion investment in the sector, with a confirmed project pipeline of over 180 new wind schemes. According to a recent TCD/ESRI report, this will bring the total number of jobs in the sector from 3,400 at present to over 8,400 and see a doubling of production of clean, indigenous, renewable energy. The modern wind turbines, which will be rolled out as part of these new schemes are a far cry from the turbines installed over four decades ago at the first commercial wind farm, constructed in 1980 on Crotched Mountain, New Hampshire, USA. A modern turbine such as ...

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system

This paper focuses on Ireland's ambitious target for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% below 2005 levels for sectors not covered by ETS (Non-ETS). Ireland is an interesting case study due to the role of agriculture (a particularly challenging sector with regard to GHG emissions reduction), that represents 29% of Ireland's GHG emissions compared with less than 10% for the EU. The analysis is carried out with the Irish TIMES model, a bottom-up energy systems modelling tool with detailed characterization of Ireland's energy system. The paper uses scenario analysis to provide pathways that demonstrate how Ireland can meet the non-ETS target at least cost. The paper considers the impacts (in terms of different technology choices and higher marginal abatement costs) arising from higher targets for the energy system to compensate for growth in agriculture activity and low mitigation potential in that sector. The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus, with a need for increased effort in renewable transport and renewable heat in particular. The results also point to significant electrification of residential heating. The results also point to a high marginal abatement cost (€213/tCO2), which challenges the analysis carried out at EU level to establish Ireland's non-ETS target.

Transport sector in Ireland: can 2020 national policy targets drive indigenous biofuel production to success?

Ireland's transport sector consumes just slightly less than one third of all energy in Ireland and is heavily dependent on oil imports, especially diesel. The European Union has set targets that are to be met by 2020, in order to guarantee a sustainable future for Europe and assure security of energy supply. There is an increase of biofuel usage in the transport sector, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage indigenous production of renewable sources. Currently, Ireland has only two licensed suppliers of biodiesel. The Irish government has issued a number of policy support mechanisms, and while that has increased the use of biofuels in Ireland, it has not necessarily aided the domestic suppliers of biofuels. The aim of this paper is to detail the existing policies and support mechanisms in Ireland and to examine whether it is possible for Ireland to produce biofuels indigenously while meeting the 2020 targets and competing with the alternative conventional imports. Alternatives to the current supply scenario will be considered, including alternatives such as electric vehicles, recovered waste vegetable oils, and grass gasification for biomethane for natural gas vehicles.This article is categorized under: Bioenergy > Economics and Policy

Resource Efficient Applications through Design and Optimization of High Performance Heat Pump Based Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Ireland’s Cool Marine Climate

Concern about security of energy supply, sustainability and climate change continues to motivate resource conscious communities to embrace energy efficiency and renewable energy. Although this transition is accelerating, many economic and technical challenges remain. This paper presents an overview of a proposed methodology, called HPHRES-IRL, to design and optimize hybrid renewable energy system. The development of thermal hybrid energy systems that combine two or more renewable sources have the potential to provide higher and more cost effective renewable energy fractions when the appropriate size and combination of systems are utilized. HP-HRES-IRL methodology employs artificial intelligence tools for resource and climate data analysis in order to design and optimize systems that deliver low grade thermal energy in Ireland’s cool marine climate. The methodology uses measured weather and thermal energy consumption data from both a public building and an industrial process over two years (2008 and 2009). Results prove the significant capital cost reductions with multi-source and show confidence in the use of the methodology and its capability to outline the most capital cost effective roadmap for a transition towards 100% renewable energy systems.

A 10 year installation program for wave energy in Ireland: A case study sensitivity analysis on financial returns

This paper is a case study which examines the finances of a proposed installation schedule of 500 MW of a wave energy device type in Ireland. The novel aspects of the analysis were the modelling of the combined influence of learning curves, supply and demand rates as well as future cost of cash on the phased deployment over the 10 years. There are many studies which have examined the economics of renewable energy project installations, including wave energy. However, there is lack of research in the impact and implications of phased installations over time, especially when using a feed-in tariff (FIT) revenue mechanism. The goal of the study was twofold. The first goal was to assess the viability of the current Irish feed-in tariff within the context of a phased installation program for the wave energy device chosen for the study, and measures required to produce a positive rate of return. The second aim was to assess the impact of learning curve, supply/demand curves and future cost of cash on phased project installations. The wave energy device chosen for the study was the Pelamis P1 and the economic model used was NAVITAS, created by HMRC. The assessment was based on net present value and internal rate of return. The wave energy data for the study was 2007 from M4 of the west coast of Ireland, obtained from Marine Institute, Ireland. Results from the case study indicated that the high initial costs for the case study wave energy device had a significant impact on financial returns. Results of the case study indicate that higher tariffs may be required than the current Irish, static, nonindex linked, FIT to foster positive returns for future wave energy projects, especially if phased installations are considered, which are susceptible to future cash and supply/demand factors. The large range of sensitivity factors assessed in the case study demonstrates the vulnerable nature of these large scale projects when estimating financial returns. Further studies will be required to assess multiple device types, update initial costs for wave energy devices, provide reliable power matrices, as well as appropriate learning curve and supply demand rates.