Sophisticated Investors Research Articles

Control risk premium: Dual‐class shares, family ownership, and minority investor returns

AbstractDespite exhibiting significant valuation discounts, dual‐class shares surged from 1% of initial public offerings in 1980 to nearly half in recent years. This study investigates the potential harm of such structures by examining the identity and returns of minority shareholders. We find that sophisticated investors predominantly hold low‐voting shares. Furthermore, outside shareholders earn a positive risk premium rather than suffering low returns, consistent with the hypothesis that market prices compensate for the risk associated with dual‐class structures. Our analysis reveals that such structures are confounded with family control, which is present in 89% of dual‐class firms in the Russell 3000. Interestingly, single‐class firms with family shareholders also enjoy positive abnormal returns, implying minority shareholders care more about the presence of a controlling shareholder than a specific voting structure. This research contributes to the ongoing debate on restricting dual‐class structures by highlighting the complex relationship between ownership, control, and shareholder returns.

Do Foreign Investors Underperform or Outperform Domestic Investors in Trading Activities? Evidence from Indonesia

The performance of foreign investors relative to domestic investors has been a subject of mixed evidence. While foreign investors are often perceived to underperform due to an information disadvantage, they are also known for their aggressive trading and superior performance in initiated orders. We provide further clarity on this issue. Specifically, by analyzing over five million transactions on the Jakarta Stock Exchange, our findings reveal that foreign investors consistently outperform domestic investors in terms of both annualized returns and profit amounts. Further investigation attributes this outperformance to the higher sophistication of foreign investors, who demonstrate superior stock-picking abilities and effective growth investing strategies.

Evaluating ESG Investment Profitability: From the Perspective of Sophistication in Investment Decision-Making

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investments are widely discussed in the stock market. Further, the debate on ESG investment profitability has garnered significant scholarly attention. This study examines the relationship between ESG investments and equity investment return (EIR) and whether this relationship is affected by investors' sophistication. The results suggest that while ESG investors generally gain relatively lower profits than others, sophisticated investors, characterized by greater financial knowledge, diversified investments, contrarian investment strategies, and not being influenced by familiar biases, can mitigate these lower returns. These findings enhance our understanding of ESG investments and offer valuable insights to guide investors in making sophisticated ESG investment decisions.

Why stock analysts may make wrong predictions?

Investors and financial analysts employ various mathematical and statistical methods to forecast stock prices. An investor or a stock analyst with a superior forecasting method can harvest huge and almost riskless profits. This is the reason why so many people are investing time and money enthusiastically in developing methods to correctly predict future stock prices. In this note, we demonstrate that even if a sophisticated investor or a stock analyst has superior (but not perfect) forecasting methods, she/he can suffer from a large false positive error. We provide a simple formula for the probability of the rate of False Positives, and analyze its properties.

Foreign portfolio investments and voting bias in the Eurovision Song Contest

We investigate the role played by the voting bias in the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) in explaining international bilateral portfolio investments. Our analysis reveals that the voting bias in the ESC score significantly helps explain bilateral portfolio investments but only for non-professional investors, while no systematic effect is found for financial companies’ holdings. Our results undergo robustness checks related to changes in the voting system and to the inclusion of standard static indicators of cultural distance. Moreover, for non-professional investors, the effect of voting bias is larger for debt than for equities: it is consistent with an affinity/animosity bias directed to target foreign governments and then reflected in sovereign debt holdings. Our analysis highlights that financial decision making, especially for less sophisticated investors, may be driven not only by static economic and cultural proximity, but also by less predictable time-varying national subjective feelings.

Investor sophistication, investor sentiment, and cash-based operating profitability

Investor sophistication, investor sentiment, and cash-based operating profitability

Is style drift informative? Evidence from mutual funds in China

In this study, we investigate whether the style drift of portfolio managers is informative. We establish that style drift is based on public information rather than the imitation of peers. Fund managers are found to adjust their portfolios to align with market expectations, particularly in normal market conditions. However, we observe a pronounced shift towards irrational herd behavior during market turbulence and style rotation periods. While style drift can offer benefits in contemporary periods, such as positive risk-adjusted returns, the funds that exhibit excessive drift can hardly beat their peers in subsequent periods. More notably, sophisticated investors tend to abandon funds with more considerable style drift in favor of those adhering to a consistent investment strategy. Our findings indicate that while style drift may be a strategic response to market conditions, its advantages are transient and often unaligned with the preferences of sophisticated investors.

The Valuation of Loss Firms: A Stock Market Perspective

The proportion of exchange‐listed firms with negative earnings has increased to over 40% in recent years. Previous research shows that the valuation of these loss firms is comparably difficult due to their uncertain future earnings path. Given these valuation issues, we argue that the stocks of loss firms should be particularly prone to mispricing such that simple firm value proxies might allow the prediction of subsequent stock returns. Supporting this hypothesis empirically, we find that book‐to‐market and revenue‐to‐price positively predict the cross‐section of loss firms’ stock returns. In particular, these value effects are significantly stronger compared to gain firms. Our further analyses support a behavioural mechanism for the empirical observations as the return predictability is disproportionately strong around earnings announcements and as analysts are too optimistic for loss firms with low values of book‐to‐market and revenue‐to‐price. Our analyses on short selling and option trading indicate that sophisticated investors are aware of the documented return predictability, but limits to arbitrage prevent an immediate correction of mispricing.

Who gets duped? The impact of education on fraud detection in an investment task

Many financial scandals appear to depend on a lack of skepticism on the part of their victims. Sophisticated investors trusted Bernie Madoff, for example, despite early warning signs of implausible returns. Our study investigates how education explains fraud detection in financial decision-making. In a simple survey, economics and finance students are asked to make an investment recommendation from among four hypothetical funds, including one based on Madoff’s fund. We use Truth Default Theory to explain our results. We show that education increases the likelihood that students are suspicious of Madoff’s fund, and that for students whose suspicions are aroused, education makes them less likely to choose the Madoff fund.

Politically Affiliated Analysts

Government ownership of financial intermediaries is pervasive around the world. In this study, we examine the impact of common government ownership between the brokerage and listed firms on the information production role of brokerage firms. We show that affiliated analysts tend to issue more optimistic recommendations for stocks of firms controlled by the same government entity that controls their brokerage firms. This optimistic bias is particularly pronounced during periods of economic shocks. Our study demonstrates this by utilizing additional tariff impositions and tariff exemptions during the U.S.–China trade war as exogenous negative and positive shocks, respectively. Additionally, our study indicates that stocks recommended by politically affiliated analysts tend to underperform those recommended by independent analysts, implying that the optimism stems from conflicts of interest rather than superior information. Furthermore, our research highlights that sophisticated investors perceive the potential bias and incorporate it into their trading. Consistent with an exchange of favors story, politically affiliated brokerage firms receive a larger allocation during the issuance of local government debt, whereas governments subscribe for more shares during seasoned equity offerings by these affiliated brokerage firms. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance. Funding: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71972088, 72132002, and 71991473], the National Social Science Foundation of China [Grants 21ZDA010 and 22VRC145], and the Innovation and Talent Base for Digital Technology and Finance [Grant B21038]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00579 .

Key audit matters disclosures and informed traders

We examine whether the audit regulation of disclosing key audit matters (KAM) provides value-relevant information to short sellers as informed investors. The theoretical underpinning for examining short sellers' ability and incentives to use KAM disclosures in their stock valuation implications is based on a prediction theory and a skilled information processing theory of short sellers. Using a sample of expanded auditor's reports from UK-listed firms during the 2010–2017 period and hand-collecting a dataset of KAM disclosures, we find no evidence that the short interest is different for the period before than after the U.K.'s expanded auditor's report regulation. However, in our cross-sectional tests, we find that KAM disclosures have a marginal effect on short interest and a positive association between short interest and unexpected and severe KAM disclosures. We conclude that, except for severe KAM that is value-relevant to sophisticated investors, the disclosures in the expanded auditor's report have no valuation implications for short sellers. Our results are robust in examining the reactions of the financial market and analysts to KAM disclosures and addressing potential endogeneity concerns.

On the Capital Market Consequences of Big Data: Evidence from Outer Space

Abstract We use the introduction of satellite coverage of major retailers to study the capital market implications of unequal access to big data. Satellite data enabled sophisticated investors with access to such data to formulate profitable trading strategies, especially by targeting the upcoming reports of retailers with bad news for the quarter. The introduction of satellite data led to more informed short-selling activity, less informed individual buying activity, and lower stock liquidity around the reports of retailers with satellite coverage. We conclude that unequal access to big data can increase information asymmetry among market participants without immediately enhancing price discovery.

Behavioral Finance: Understanding Investment Decisions Among Individual Investors

In the early 1990s, India started to open up to the outside world. Steep GDP growth has been facilitated by privatization, liberalization, and globalization together. An important aspect in this was the investors. As a result, the administration thought of enticing more investors. Sophisticated investors from all over the world started to pay more attention to the Indian capital markets, especially after 2003. In this instance, it is vital to examine the How, Why, When, Where, and Amount of the Investors’ Investments. A further tool for comprehending the decision-making process of investors is behavioral finance, a relatively new field of study. Emotions and psychology play a part in the way investors make financial decisions. It says that people are not foolish or illogical. They are common individuals with diverse prejudices. Numerous elements, such as personality and demography, can affect how risk and return on investment are evaluated. They can also have an impact on investor psychology and attitudes, investment selection, and decision-making processes. In this study, we look at how Bengaluru’s individual investors’ choice of investment instruments is influenced by their personalities and demographics. Frequency analysis along with other statistical methods were used to describe the variables. Only respondents who have invested in any form of financial instrument at least once are selected for the study.

The Effects of Daylight Saving Time Adjustments on Investor Information Processing

ABSTRACT Although daylight saving time (DST) is thought to provide economic benefits, extant research documents various adverse effects of DST adjustments. However, prior research provides little conclusive evidence about the effects of DST adjustments on capital market participants. We examine the effects of “spring forward” DST advances, which disrupt the human sleep cycle and economic activities, on investors’ processing of earnings news. We find a delayed price response to earnings news released during the first week following a DST advance. We also find that this effect is stronger among firms with investors who are more likely to be trading on earnings news and among firms with less sophisticated investors. Our findings contribute to research on the unintended consequences of DST adjustments and to the growing literature on intra-investor variation in disclosure processing costs. Our study may be of interest to legislators currently debating proposed legislation that would eliminate DST phasing. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: D83; G14; M41; M48.

Financial fraud and investor awareness

In a retail financial market, firms strategically choose whether to commit financial fraud to exploit naive investors who are unaware of such practices. In a leader-follower setting, we identify a segmented equilibrium in which an honest firm offers a normal product to sophisticated investors, while a dishonest firm offers a fraudulent product that targets naive investors. Competition may not benefit investors because the presence of a rival firm reduces the profitability of offering a normal product and thus discourages honest behavior. If there is a positive cost of entry, the incumbent firm may strategically switch to offering a fraudulent product to deter entry. As a result, policies that alter the entry barriers to the market may have unintended negative effects on welfare. In the segmented equilibrium with free entry, the honest firm has an incentive to disclose information about financial fraud and steal market share from the dishonest firm. However, this incentive is limited because such disclosure may prompt the dishonest firm to deviate and compete for the normal product market.

Deep reinforcement learning applied to statistical arbitrage investment strategy on cryptomarket

In the complex and dynamic nature of financial markets where increasingly sophisticated investment strategies are required, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has proven successful in generating real-time investment strategies, outperforming classical models. Alongside this, statistical arbitrage strategies exploit temporary market inefficiencies to generate returns. In this regard, a novel DRL-based arbitrage method has been developed.This paper presents a unified framework that combines classical statistical arbitrage theory with DRL framework to generate investment strategies. The framework addresses the challenges of identifying similar asset portfolios, extracting signals indicating temporary price deviations, and determining optimal trading rules given market conditions. The proposed methodology involves constructing arbitrage portfolios based on cointegration relationships, removing signals from price series and portfolios, and using a DRL agent to make optimal decisions within a fixed time horizon.The empirical analysis focuses on the cryptocurrency market, known for its volatility and risk. Results demonstrate that DRL agents can generate strategies with positive returns in out-of-sample periods 79.52% to 112.82% with no transaction cost, outperforming market benchmark Bitcoin 32.51% return, the best performing over the period Litecoin with 57.11% return and the worst performing Solana with a 35.70% loss. Moreover, these strategies effectively reduce risk, achieving higher risk-adjusted returns on individual assets. The strategies maintain positive returns when considering transaction costs, with the DRL agent outperforming the standard arbitrage strategy. The best-performing strategy is based on a Deep Q-Network (DQN) agent with a return of 18.39%, annualized volatility of 12.22%, and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.43. At the same time, Bitcoin holds an annualized volatility of 44.13% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08.Their randomness and coherence are studied to verify the robustness of the agents’ decisions. The actions generated by the agents are not random but based on well-founded policies, which align with the obtained results.

On the sophistication of financial investors and the information revealed by prices

On the sophistication of financial investors and the information revealed by prices

The Effect of Mandatory Disclosure Dissemination on Information Asymmetry among Investors: Evidence from the Implementation of the EDGAR System

ABSTRACT I study the effect of the implementation of the SEC’s EDGAR system on information asymmetry among investors. The SEC adopted EDGAR to decrease acquisition costs of mandatory filings. However, disclosure theory suggests that, even when acquisition costs are low, integration costs (i.e., costs necessary to filter and interpret information signals) may be so high that less sophisticated investors are disadvantaged, relative to their sophisticated peers. Consistent with this theory, I find evidence that EDGAR increased information asymmetries among investors. This result is more pronounced for firms with higher integration costs—i.e., those with more complex filings and filings that have higher information content—as well as for firms with lower analyst coverage. Overall, my results suggest that, although EDGAR lowered acquisition costs for all investors, it also benefited some investors at the expense of others. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: M21; M41; G00; G12; G18; O33.

Equity in capital raising? Empirical evidence from structured private placements

Packaged private placements (PPP) in Australia allow all eligible shareholders to purchase shares at the same price as offered to institutions in the private placement component of the offering. Announcement returns for PPPs are negative on average but are positive for offers with large placements to institutions. Returns also exhibit higher sensitivity to private placement size in PPPs than in traditional private placements, consistent with larger certification benefits accruing to PPP issuers. Retail shareholders experience 3.9 % ownership dilution in PPPs as compared to 8.6 % dilution in equivalent traditional private placements, and their participation is positively related to the size of the private placement component. Long run wealth related benefits associated with participation are present in all PPPs. Our results provide insights for regulators who wish to encourage companies to consider raising capital from small shareholders by utilizing offer structures that have been typically only accessible to sophisticated investors.

Do Capital Markets Punish Managerial Myopia? Evidence from Myopic Research and Development Cuts

AbstractThe literature provides conflicting arguments and mixed results regarding whether capital markets punish managerial myopia. Using managers cutting research and development (R&D) investments to meet short-term earnings goals as a research setting, this study reveals that capital markets penalize managerial myopia, especially for firms with high investor sophistication. Moreover, the negative market reactions to managerial myopia are weaker for firms with overinvestment problems than for those without such problems. Overall, the results support the notion that security markets are not shortsighted. In further analysis, we document that compensation, especially earnings-based compensation, may cause managers to behave myopically. Our study contributes to the literature, reconciling previously mixed findings by capturing managers’ myopic behavior in a more targeted way and showing that markets punish myopic R&D cutting.