Investor Sentiment In Stock Market Research Articles

Understanding Intraday Oil Price Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Oil and Stock Investor Sentiments

This study employed intraday stock market and oil investor sentiment data related to news and social media (i.e., the Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices [TRMI] sentiment index) to gauge investors’ interest in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures market during the recent health crisis. We proposed an original nonlinear empirical framework by considering oil price dynamics’ complexity and its potential interaction with investor sentiment. The analysis revealed three noteworthy findings. First, we observed evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship between excess returns on WTI crude oil futures and investor sentiment data. Second, the causality direction moved only from oil and stock market investor sentiment to oil returns. Third, the impacts of oil and stock market sentiment data on crude oil returns (i.e., volatility) were always negative. Furthermore, sentiment data related to social media showed a more pronounced cross-correlation than that of news.

Research on the Construction and Validity of Stock Market Investor Sentiment Index based on Stock Bar Comments

In the present day, the internet has become the primary place for many retail investors in China to invest, and stock forums are often the primary choice for investors to exchange and discuss. According to behavioural finance, irrational investor decisions are often the source of instability in the stock market. Therefore, the study of investor sentiment has significant implications for the optimisation of investor decisions, the design of market surveillance mechanisms and the study of behavioural finance theory. This paper combines empirical research as well as theoretical analysis, a comprehensive analysis of the raw data extracted based on Eastern Fortune stock bar comments to establish the corresponding sentiment index, and will also give an analysis and conclusion on the validity verification of the sentiment index. The research includes the following two parts: (1) Using text mining and web crawlers, text-based data and numerical data are extracted, and data mining is completed after comprehensive analysis and screening, and text sentiment analysis is used to complete the establishment of the sentiment index for investors. (2) The full-day, trading day and overnight investor sentiment indices were compared with the SSE Composite Stock Index as the research object through correlation analysis with the mainstream six sentiment proxy variables to prove their significant correlation, and then the KNN regression based on simulated annealing and the LightGBM regression model based on genetic algorithm were used to verify the prediction of investor sentiment on the stock price movement of the SSE Composite Index respectively The empirical validity of the regression models is verified.In the end, this article will propose tailored policy optimization suggestions for both investors and market regulatory agencies, in accordance with the results of the analysis.

Investor Sentiment in Stock Market: A Case of Pakistan Super League in Pakistan Stock Exchange

This study investigates whether sentiments play any role while investors make financial decisions which results in the stock returns. The paper analyzes the major two sports events (2016-2017) of Pakistan Super League (PSL). The study utilizes the stock market data from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)-100 index for the period of two financial years starting from June 2015 to July 2017. PSL T20 data is collected from the official PSL website. The empirical results of the studyshow that PSL sports events are highly statistically significant and imply that the events trigger investor sentiments (optimistic and pessimistic behaviors) in the PSX.When the whole PSL games were played on United Arab Emirates (UAE) grounds in 2016, later on, which badly affected the investor moods and resulted in a negative abnormal return in PSX-100 index. While in case of PSL event in 2017, in which only final match of the event was held in Lahore, Pakistan and resulted in a positive abnormal return in PSX-100 index. The study provides implications for different authorities such as Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB), PSX and other development authorities in order to promote such activities for the overall economic and social benefits. While founding no previous studies concerning the subject in the Pakistani context, the Scholar selected the issue to conduct a research and make a considerable contribution for investors in Pakistan with respect to PSL events and its impact on PSX. Keywords: Investor Sentiments, Stock returns, behavioral finance, Pakistan Super League, Pakistan Stock Exchange

Applying BERT to analyze investor sentiment in stock market

This paper is an analysis of investor sentiment in the stock market based on the bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) model. First, we extracted the sentiment value from online information published by stock investor, using the Bert model. Second, these sentiment values were weighted by attention for computing the investor sentiment indicator. Finally, the relationship between investor sentiment and stock yield was analyzed through a two-step cross-sectional regression validation model. The experiments found that investor sentiment in online reviews had a significant impact on stock yield. The experiments show that the Bert model used in this paper can achieve an accuracy of 97.35% for the analysis of investor sentiment, which is better than both LSTM and SVM methods.

Why does stock-market investor sentiment influence corporate investment?

We examine the relationship between corporate investment and investor sentiment at the firm level with the predicted change in investor sentiment. Empirically, we find that there is a large predictable mean reversion component in investor sentiment, and that a predicted increase in investor sentiment, capturing an unwinding of past market sentiment, positively affects the investment and debt issuance of firms with lower credit ratings, but not their equity issuance. Our results suggest that the positive relationship between investor sentiment and corporate investment may be due to that corporate managers are also driven by investor sentiment.

Chasing investor sentiment in stock market

In this paper, we present a sentiment asset pricing model with the Chasers, who believe investor sentiment has significant impact on asset pricing and tend to chase investor sentiment, optimally inferring investor sentiment from asset price. We find that the impact of investor sentiment on asset price depends not only on the number of the Sentiment investors but also on the number of the Chasers; and the Chasers can amplify the impact of investor sentiment on asset price. If investor sentiment is optimistic, the Chasers would increase stock price; and if investor sentiment is pessimistic, the Chasers would decrease stock price. Moreover, we demonstrate that the Chasers can also increase stock price volatility. The model could offer a partial explanation to the phenomenon of overvaluation, undervaluation and excess volatility.

Migration policy uncertainty and stock market investor sentiment

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility transmission between migration policy uncertainty indices (MI) of France, Germany, UK and the USA, and respective stock markets of these countries. Therefore, the author’s major intention is to understand whether MI is a critical factor affecting company valuations and investor sentiment. Design/methodology/approach The author proxies volatility via EGARCH (1,1) for all series and employs Diebold–Yilmaz (2012) methodology to test the spillover, which is a simple yet very intuitive procedure. This method allows one to analyze the numerical amount of spillover, as well as the direction. Findings Findings propose that volatility transmission is from migration index to stock markets for the UK and US markets, but similar findings are not applicable for France and Germany. However, when cross-market transmissions are analyzed, it is observed that migration policy uncertainty of US spills significant volatility to all European stock markets. Hence, the findings underline the central role of US markets. Originality/value Given the increasing worries about migration across the USA and Europe, the author tries to cast light on whether investor sentiment alters by migration policies. The literature is recently building and best of the author’s knowledge; the paper is the first to investigate the cross-country spillover between MIs, which has not been performed before.

On the construction of Chinese stock market investor sentiment index

Measuring investor sentiment has become one of the most widely examined areas in behavioral finance. For the purpose of measuring investor sentiment more accurately, we classify the investor sentim...

The contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment

Given the close contact between international financial markets,the contagion effect across markets is becoming increasingly obvious. In this paper, which uses principal component analysis to build a Chinese stock market investor sentiment index and further applies a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment. The results show that international crude oil price fluctuations significantly Granger cause Chinese stock market investor sentiment; in the long term, if the international crude oil price fluctuates by 1%, stock market sentiment will negatively fluctuate 3.9400%. From the perspective of short-term efficacy, if the international crude oil price fluctuates by 1%, stock market investor sentiment in the same period will negatively fluctuate 1.0223%. International crude oil prices made a greater early contribution to investor sentiment and showed a rapid growth trend, with a contribution of 2.8076% in the first period and 8.1955% in the second. The growth rate then slows and eventually stabilizes at the 25% level; the average contagion delay for international crude oil price fluctuation to affect investor sentiment is 8months.

The linkage between aggregate stock market investor sentiment and commodity futures returns

This article investigates the predictive content of aggregate stock market investor sentiment on the returns of commodity futures. The sample consists of four subcategories: agricultural, livestock, energy and metal futures, for a total of 26 commodity futures spanning from the period 1968 to 2010. Overall, commodity futures perform better when investor sentiment is pessimistic rather than optimistic. The asymmetrical response to sentiment shocks may partially account for this difference. Cross-sectional analysis indicates a persistent negative relationship between investor sentiment and commodity futures returns, even after controlling for the effects of liquidity and open interest. Additional analysis shows that when conditional volatilities are high, the negative relationship between investor sentiment and commodity futures returns becomes more pronounced.