Investment Cycle Research Articles

A Political Perspective of the Law in the Copyright Law on Investment in Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Umkm

Economic growth is based on a healthy and solid investment cycle, especially for micro and small entrepreneurs. In this case, regulations related to investment in micro and small businesses do not fully reflect the equal relationship between medium and large business stakeholders and micro and small businesses. In preparing this article, the author used a normative juridical method that requires accurate data to be able to analyze existing legal problems, both in the form of primary data and secondary data. This research finds problems related to what factors are needed by the government to develop MSE investment from a progressive legal political perspective. This research uses a literature review method with a normative legal approach to statutory regulations. Based on this analysis, to increase the competitiveness of Micro and Small Enterprises in the implementation of Law Number 11 of 2020 concerning Job Creation from a political-legal perspective, an innovative government strategy is needed. This can be done by increasing the morality of Business Actors in accordance with the values of the Fifth Principle of Pancasila. In increasing the competitiveness of MSEs in the Legal Politics of the Job Creation Law, there needs to be a progressive Government strategy, namely by fostering greater morality of business actors, as mandated in the Principles. fifth. This can be achieved by recognizing progressive factors in the Government, namely: 1) Stabilizers; 2) Facilitator; 3) Regulators; and 4) Catalyst. This will accelerate the growth of Micro and Small Businesses efficiently and competitively without relying on the government on a large scale.

Who loses when FDI fails? Local experiences with plantation investment and divestment in Liberia

While the merits of foreign direct investment (FDI) in producing economic growth for the host country have been debated, one seldom considered outcome of FDI is failure resulting in divestment. Little consideration has been given to the ways in which foreign divestment impacts local communities. This paper presents a case study of the Sime Darby Liberia plantation using qualitative in-depth interviews with community members surrounding the site. The cycle of investment and divestment has shaped the experiences and livelihoods of people living in the area regarding land concessions, employment, and plantation management transitions. While divestment can create undesirable outcomes for all parties involved, the structures of FDI set local people up to take the biggest losses in the case of FDI failure.

Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment

Abstract We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations. (JEL G31, G32, G40, E32, E44)

Political cycles of infrastructure investment: How career concerns shape strategic behavior of city leaders?

Political cycles of infrastructure investment: How career concerns shape strategic behavior of city leaders?

Impact of leasing transactions on business development in Kyrgyzstan

The purpose of this study was to determine how leasing transactions contribute to business modernisation in Kyrgyzstan. The study used survey methods and semi-structured interviews with company representatives, followed by statistical analysis of the collected data to determine changes in productivity, operating costs, and investment payback period. In particular, the results showed that 90% of the surveyed agricultural enterprises reported a 25-30% increase in productivity after using leasing to purchase machinery, which was confirmed by analysing data on the reduction of repair and maintenance costs for old equipment. In transport logistics, 85% of the companies indicated a reduction in operating costs and improvement of logistics processes due to fleet renewal through leasing programmes, which also contributed to an increase in the customer base by 15-20%. In the construction sector, the use of leasing allowed 82% of companies to reduce project completion time by 20-25%, which was due to the acquisition of new construction equipment through leasing, which can accelerate the performance of work and improve the quality of projects. In the manufacturing sector, 70% of companies reported a positive impact of leasing on their production capacity, but a longer payback period was identified, which requires the development of specialised leasing programmes with more flexible terms for industrial enterprises. The results of the study confirmed the important role of leasing as a financial instrument for the modernisation of enterprises in Kyrgyzstan, but also reveal the need to improve the access of small enterprises to leasing programmes and adapt the conditions for sectors with a long investment cycle, such as manufacturing

EU emissions trading in the buildings sector – an ex-ante assessment

ABSTRACT The EU ETS is one of the first emissions trading schemes in the world and has contributed to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors covered by the scheme in recent years. The EU has adopted the introduction of a new, separate emissions trading scheme (ETS 2) for the buildings and transport sectors as well additional sectors. In our paper we estimate the impact of the new ETS 2 on the buildings sector. We calculate the greenhouse gas emission reduction in the year 2030 using an approach based on price elasticities. We further discuss the impact of the ETS 2 on cost-effectiveness of heat pump deployment in the EU Member States to outline an example of longer-term effects on investments. The results show that with a carbon price of 45 Euro per ton the impact ranges between three and seven Million tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Even with optimistic assumptions on the reaction of building owners, the overall contribution of the ETS 2 to meeting the EU target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030 is limited. The results furthermore show that the carbon price needed to make heat pumps competitive in the use phase differs largely between the Member States, where in three Member States the required level exceeds 100€/t CO2eq. We conclude that in addition to carbon pricing under the ETS 2, a strong policy framework is needed for the transition of the buildings sector. Key policy insights The new carbon pricing scheme in ETS 2 contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings in the EU, however its impact on the EU energy and climate targets for the year 2030 is limited. Carbon pricing supports the diffusion of heat pumps, however a price of 45 €/t is insufficient to make heat pumps competitive even in the operation phase in several countries. Due to the low price elasticities and the long investment cycles in the buildings sector, a strong policy mix is needed in addition to carbon pricing.

Quantum fuzzy decision-making for analyzing the service progress life cycle of renewable energy innovation investments

Innovative and effective solutions can be produced by using advanced technologies to increase renewable energy innovation investments. However, many actions taken to increase these investments may cause the costs of enterprises to reach an unmanageable level. As a result, a priority analysis is needed to identify the most critical issues, but in literature, there are limited studies in the literature regarding this issue. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the service progress life cycle of renewable energy innovation investments. A novel model is presented in this process while integrating different approaches. First, the service progress life cycle of renewable innovation investments is weighted. In this scope, two-generation technology S-curve and facial action coding system-based Quantum Spherical fuzzy M-SWARA are considered. Secondly, the renewable innovation investment alternatives are ranked. In this framework, the integer patterns and facial action coding system-based Quantum Spherical fuzzy TOPSIS are taken into consideration. Additionally, these investment alternatives are also ranked by using VIKOR technique to test the validity of the proposed model results. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is conducted by considering 8 different cases so that coherency of the results can be tested. The main contribution of this manuscript is the consideration of the FACS system to increase both the originality and effectiveness of the proposed model and the development of new technique named M-SWARA. Additionally, conducting a priority evaluation helps to identify the efficient investment strategies to increase renewable energy innovation. It is defined that the same findings can be achieved by both TOPSIS and VIKOR techniques. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis also indicates the same rankings as well. It is understood that the proposed model provides coherent and reliable findings. The findings denote that maturity is the most critical stage of the service progress life cycle of the renewable energy investments. Moreover, advanced technologies are found as the best alternative of the renewable innovation investments for the service progress life cycle. Hence, it is recommended that R&D activities should be prioritized for the provision of advanced technologies in the renewable energy sector. For this purpose, research centers, universities, private sector companies and government institutions can work for the development of innovative and advanced technologies.

IMPROVEMENT OF INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES OF THE ORGANIZATION

As noted in previous publications, innovation and investment are closely linked. It is impossible to imagine serious innovation projects without large investments, and effective investments without innovation. Often, companies have their financial reserves, but no investment, again because the company does not have innovative and profitable projects that are attractive to investors. In situations of economic instability, investors select and analyze projects for investment more carefully, since the efficiency and risk of investment are directly related to the structure of the innovation project. Economic analysis in innovation and investment activities is a tool for developing management decisions aimed at improving the efficiency of the enterprise, and is also used to assess the professional skills and competencies of enterprise managers, innovation units and specialists. Currently, there are a sufficient number of fundamental approaches and methods for determining the efficiency of capital investments throughout the investment cycle

Human Capital and the Quality of Foreign Direct Investments

The purpose of this study is to analyse to what extent the difference between the quantity and quality of Human Capital (HC) is relevant to the quantity and quality of inward Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). Most developing economies keep attracting multinational enterprises (MNEs) with short-term goals in labour-intensive industries, with little or no embodiment in the local environment. As such, low-valueadding investments erode the national HC base, leading to the vicious cycle of lowquality investments. The legitimate policy question is whether countries are unable to attract high-quality investment due to the low quality of HC. This study, which combines traditional and more advanced proxies of HC, considers a sample of 54 developed and developing countries. It is found that the role of HC quality in FDI attraction is industry-specific and that it varies depending on the country’s level of development. The quality of HC seems to matter relatively more for high-quality FDI than for overall FDI.

СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ МЕХАНИЗМОВ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ БЛАГОПРИЯТНОЙ ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСКОЙ СРЕДЫ ДЛЯ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ПРОЕКТОВ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННО-ЧАСТНОГО ПАРТНЕРСТВА

The work is dedicated to the analysis of the economic nature of public-private partnerships (PPP) and the need to create conditions for attracting private investments through the provision of various government guarantees. First and foremost, the economic aspect of PPP is analyzed in order to identify the key factors in attracting a private sector partner to a project. Subsequently, the potential risks associated with implementing PPP initiatives and methods to mitigate them are examined. It is noted that the PPP model is of significant importance as it allows for the attraction of not only private capital for the construction of socially beneficial projects, but also expertise in managing long-term investment cycles. Special attention is paid to such government guarantee mechanisms as the "Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement" and the "Reciprocal Investment Contract". The issues of increasing the involvement of the private sector in socially significant projects is a relevant topic, as the higher the level of involvement of the private partner, the greater the economic and social impact the project will have.

Research on the Optimal Strategy of Investment Portfolio Based on Markowitz Model

Nowadays, investment is becoming increasingly common. Under the globalization of the economy, investors are given more investment opportunities and choices. Investors need to select excellent assets and allocate the selected asset portfolio on weight during the investment process. The mean-variance model proposed by Markowitz plays an important guiding role in investment and risk management. This model can effectively evaluate investors portfolio risk and return decisions and significantly impact their decision-making choices. This study uses the data of the annual average return and variance from 11 risky assets and 1 risk-free asset in about 20 years to construct an investment portfolio in a fixed group based on the Markowitz Model. The study calculates the changes in the allocation of the maximum Sharpe ratio and the minimum variance portfolios under three different constraints and one condition with the addition of risk-free assets, respectively, and then analyzes changes in the outcome of data. The capital allocation lines are introduced to analyze the outcome of an investment portfolio with risk-free assets. Compared with the changes from three constraints, reasons are explained why these changes happen under three constraints. Then, the above limitations are taken as a premise, and the study proposes recommendations for the optimal investment portfolio selection for different investors according to the investment cycle, the preference of investors based on the situation of different investors, and market constraints. The study guides investors future investment decisions.

Cyclical dynamics and co-movement of business, credit, and investment cycles: empirical evidence from India

The paper aimed to investigate the cyclical dynamics of the business, credit, and investment sectors in India. This was achieved by utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2021 and investigating the impact of domestic and global financial cycles on the business cycle. The cycles were derived using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and Granger causality tests were employed to establish the dynamic interactions among these cycles. The results of the study revealed a clear divergence between domestic and global financial cycles. Additionally, the SVAR analysis confirmed the presence of a long-run relationship between business, investment, and credit cycles. Notably, the findings suggest that credit cycles can provide valuable insights to manage business cycles in India. Finally, robustness checks were conducted to confirm the reliability of SVAR findings.

Life cycle of private equity investments in physician practices: an overview of private equity exits.

Private equity (PE) firms acquire and grow physician practices through add-on consolidation, generating outsized returns on the sale of the acquisition in 3-8 years ("exit"). Private equity's abbreviated investment timeline and exit incentives may deter long-term investments in care delivery and workforce needed for high-quality care. To our knowledge, there has been no published analyses of the nature or duration of PE exits from physician practices. We address this knowledge gap by using novel data to characterize PE exits from dermatology, ophthalmology, and gastroenterology, physician specialties with the largest number of acquisitions between 2016 and 2020. Of 807 acquisitions, over half (51.6%) of PE-acquired practices underwent an exit within 3 years of initial investment. In nearly all instances (97.8%), PE firms exited investments through secondary buyouts, where physician practices were resold to other PE firms with larger investment funds. Between investment and exit, PE firms increased the number of physician practices affiliated with the PE firm by an average of 595% in 3 years. Findings highlight the rapid scale of ownership change and consolidation under PE ownership and motivate evaluations by policymakers on the effects of PE ownership over the life cycle of PE investments.

Forecasting China's Real Estate Investment Trends: A Dynamic Regression Model Approach with ARIMA

This investigation utilizes a dynamic regression model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) error correction to evaluate and forecast the trajectory of China's real estate market. The model interprets investment cycles, indicating an imminent significant peak and anticipates subsequent market adjustments. The research integrates key indicators such as production output and sales data to substantiate its predictions, simultaneously warning of an overinflated housing market due to shifting demands and demographic evolution. The authors argue for a more sophisticated modeling approach to accurately reflect the market's nuances and propose targeted policy measures aimed at maintaining equilibrium. The study presents the model's formidable forecasting ability while also acknowledging the complex, multifaceted nature of the real estate sector which mandates ongoing model enhancements. This dual focus on predictive accuracy and the call for adaptive modeling underscores the study's commitment to providing actionable insights in a rapidly changing economic landscape. The proposed policies seek to preemptively counteract instability, thereby contributing to a more sustainable real estate economy in China.

Analysis of bond immunization strategies based on duration model

Due to the rapidly expanding bond market and the growing variety of bond types, investors must take on a lot of risks in the investing market. As a result, this article explains and examines how to benefit from the duration matching immunization method, namely the maturity immunity of bond portfolio to ensure return, in order to get consistent profit income and prevent interest risk. The investment portfolio is developed to determine the matching analysis of maturity and yield and maturity and investment cycle after the screening phase of the bond market. It is proposed and the flaws are highlighted in accordance with the interest rate fluctuations of the bond market with the maturity immunization portfolio, in order to give investors pertinent recommendations on how to maintain the stability of income and mitigate the loss of interest rate change.

Exploring the Relationship Between Diversification, Risk Bank, Size Bank, and Liquidity; Evidence From Conventional Banking In Indonesia

Banking plays an important role in the economy both micro and macro. In addition, it is crucial for a country to have a strong and robust banking system. To realize a strong and robust banking banks need to maintain their efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the factors that affect efficiency, including asset diversification, risk, bank size and bank liquidity. The novelty of this research is that there is an asset diversification variable. Asset diversification can protect investors from recurring investment cycles and can save from asset failure. The sample of this research are conventional banks with a total of 10 banks that have the largest share of assets in Indonesia. In this study to identify the effect of asset diversification, bank risk, bank size, and bank liquidity on bank efficiency used multiple linear regression analysis methods were used. This study concludes that asset diversification actually reduces bank efficiency. The increased bank risk, the better efficiency. Then, the size of the bank and liquidity have no effect on efficiency. Therefore, banks need to review the diversification strategy, ensure that the risks associated with each asset and portfolio as a whole are well-identified and look for opportunities to automate repetitive processes and reduce overall operational costs. Through this research, we suggest, (i) Banks need to review the diversification strategy that has been implemented. There may be some areas or types of assets that do not fit the risk profile and objectives of the bank, (ii) Banks need to ensure that the risks associated with each asset and portfolio as a whole are well-identified, measured and managed, (iii) Banks need to look for opportunities to automate repetitive processes and reduce overall operational costs.

Impact of dividends and capital intensity of labour on real wages in post-communist economies

This paper aims to verify gains and losses from foreign direct investment as well as outflow of capital in the form of dividends from Central and Eastern Europe. The topic of dividend outflow is currently at the centre of political as well as media interest. At the same time, it is prone to simplistic interpretations and possible political intervention might exert a significant negative social impact. The contemporary economic theory and empirical research are in relative consensus on the positive effects of foreign investment. Most notably, it increases capital endowment of labour. However, the questions that have not yet been resolved are the rate of intensity, phases and channels of foreign capital flows. The effect of foreign investment during the different phases of foreign life-cycle is practically unexplored. The need for this type of research does not arise in Western Europe’s economies as they are in a position of creditor compared to Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore, the article examines whether the outflow of dividends is associated with the deterioration of aggregate demand or an increase of export capacities. Through the panel regression method, these relationships are captured in Western Europe’s economies and compared with the Central and Eastern Europe’s economies. The effect of capital intensity and dividend outflow on real wages in the post-communist countries was examined. The findings break down the myth portrayed in the media concerning the cost of dividend outflow and, on the contrary, they confirm substantial benefits stemming from the capital inflow. Late stages of foreign investment cycle connected with dividend outflow do not bear any adverse effects. The high profitability of foreign-controlled enterprises is in line with the favourable wage development of domestic labour force.

New Instruments for Investment Support of Technology Sovereignty Projects

The growth of restrictive measures against the Russian Federation in the context of the high import dependence of the national economy calls for special attention to be paid to the country’s achievement of technological sovereignty and the launching of a new sustainable investment cycle. This involves the task of dynamically increasing the creation of new medium- and high-technology industries, with a central role being given to the creation of a resource database of projects. Limited public budgets and the inaccessibility of external financial markets make it appropriate to consider domestic private and (or) resources as priority sources of financing debt, especially when the latter are not sufficiently involved in the investment process. In turn, it is unlikely to accumulate the funds of credit organizations and the business sector without the use of modern state support tools that would reduce the cost of capital for the implementation of investment projects and, thus, they redirected financial flows to the highest priority, albeit low-margin, of the real sector. Thus, the purpose of this article is to analyze new instruments of investment support of projects of ensuring technological sovereignty in the territory of the Russian Federation.

Developing and optimizing a new cogeneration cycle to produce hydrogen from seawater

Global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels have driven countries to develop alternative fuel strategies. As an alternative fuel, hydrogen is very attractive since it has a high thermal energy and near-zero emissions. This paper proposes a new arrangement of the cogeneration cycle for hydrogen production from seawater is proposed and optimized via the multi-objective swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm. In this survey, hydrogen is produced through the electrochemical cycle Copper-Chloride (Cu-Cl), using the heat and electricity provided via waste heat recovery of a gas cycle. A reverse osmosis system provides drinking water for the Cu-Cl cycle. This cycle can produce 256 GWh of electricity and 23616 tons/year of hydrogen during a year. This cycle's first and second law efficiencies are 35.3 % and 7.2 %. Based on the financial aspects, this cycle's investment return time equals 4.1 years. By using MOPSO algorithm, the exergy efficiency of the cogeneration system is improved by 22.7 %, while the payback is decreased by around 33.3 %.

A Survey of Capacity Mechanisms: Lessons for the Swedish Electricity Market

Many electricity markets use capacity mechanisms to support producers. Capacity payments can mitigate imperfections associated with “missing money” in the spot market and solve transitory capacity shortages caused by investment cycles, regulatory changes, or technology shifts. We discuss capacity mechanisms used in electricity markets around the world. We argue that correctly designed strategic reserves are likely to be more efficient than market-wide capacity mechanisms in jurisdictions that rely on substantial amounts of variable renewable energy and hydro power for electricity supply, such as Sweden.