Eradication Of Invasive Species Research Articles

International (Wild) Animal Rights and Biodiversity: Resolving Conflicts Between Holism And Individualism

This article discusses the extension of international human rights principles to wild animals, which could potentially contribute to their international protection in the Anthropocene. However, the distinct and more distant relationship between humans and wild animals raises several questions. Tension exists between the holistic ethics of environmentalism in terms of the biodiversity regime vis-à-vis the focus on individual animals in terms of animal welfare/ethics. The obligation to eradicate alien invasive species in Article 8(h) of the Convention on Biological Diversity epitomises the tension. Thus, this article investigates potential international wild animal rights in the context of the tension between holism and individualism and introduces these rights as specific group-based rights which differ in substance from animal rights applicable to domesticated animals. The discussion proposes that non-exclusionary dignity may be used to determine the specific rights of wild animals, which has the potential for strengthening animal rights through transjudicial communication. Furthermore, the article addresses the tension between environmentalism and rights and argues that wild animal rights don’t necessarily preclude the eradication of alien invasive species. Subsequently, the publication considers the substantive content of proposed wild animal rights and reflects on potential wild animal rights via a reference to existing non-binding declarations and domestic case law. The discussion highlights the relevance of the rights to freedom, to habitat or the environment, and the prohibition of cruel treatment and concludes with final remarks.

Enhancing monitoring to promote early detection and eradication of invasive species

Ecological niche models are often used to predict the distribution of invasive species before or after they have been detected in new regions. Such models should also be used to guide surveys to promote the early detection and eradication of invasive species. Here we propose a practical framework that seamlessly uses ecological niche models to develop sampling routes that promote detection of invasive species. Our framework uses habitat suitability predictions and occurrence data on incursion populations to generate potential survey sites, which are then prioritized for sampling based on their size and suitability. The generated survey route is then displayed on an open street map platform. Our framework was developed into the ‘enmRoute' R package and a user‐friendly website to facilitate its application, and we validated our framework with a case study. We show that integrating ecological niche models with human transport routes promotes identification of survey sites that are predicted to collect more individuals and have a greater potential for species detection than traditional sampling approaches. Our framework may help industries, invasion biologists, and regulators develop economical and efficient survey programs for invasive pest monitoring that make eradication programs more attainable.

Flowering Plant Diversity of Differentially Disturbed Region of Terai Sal (Shorea robusta) Forest in Eastern Nepal

Terai Sal (Shorea robusta C.F.Gaertn.) forest, characteristic forest of lowland of Nepal, faces direct and indirect impacts from various anthropogenic activities. The present work aimed to study and document the flowering plant diversity within differentially disturbed sites of Charali Sal forest. Additionally, we accessed the habitat condition, analyzed the invasion status and prioritize the threats faced by the plant communities and recommended ways to mitigate the prevalent threats. We employed purposive sampling technique to sample the forest areas and nested plot design for vegetation sampling. Thirty sample plots, each measuring 10 m × 10 m, were established on two differentially disturbed sites (disturbed and undisturbed) of Charali Sal forest. A total of 111 flowering plant species belonging to 39 families were documented in the sampling sites, with 90 total species (89 identified) in disturbed sites and 86 species (80 identified) in undisturbed sites. Although the disturbed sites contained higher number of flowering plants, the diversity indices (Simpson and Shannon-wiener’s) indicated higher diversity on undisturbed site. Disturbed site exhibited higher human encroachment and higher invasion of alien species compared to undisturbed site. Specific habitat management plans should be devised for the control and eradication of invasive species from the Charali Sal forest. We highly recommend to delimit a buffer zone all around the forest perimeter to regulate local access inside the forest. Collecting and harvesting various forest products should be restricted to the buffer zone, while the inner forest areas should be under careful and strict management. Implementing these strict managemental strategies would be challenging, but it is crucial for preserving the natural integrity of the forest.

Island restoration to rebuild seabird populations and amplify coral reef functioning.

Mobile organisms like seabirds can provide important nutrient flows between ecosystems, but this connectivity has been interrupted by the degradation of island ecosystems. Island restoration (via invasive species eradications and the restoration of native vegetation) can reestablish seabird populations and their nutrient transfers between their foraging areas, breeding colonies, and adjacent nearshore habitats. Its diverse benefits are making island restoration increasingly common and scalable to larger islands and whole archipelagos. We identified the factors that influence breeding seabird abundances throughout the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean and conducted predictive modeling to estimate the abundances of seabirds that the archipelago could support under invasive predator eradication and native vegetation restoration scenarios. We explored whether the prey base exists to support restored seabird populations across the archipelago, calculated the nitrogen that restored populations of seabirds might produce via their guano, and modeled the cascading conservation gains that island restoration could provide. Restoration was predicted to increase breeding pairs of seabirds to over 280,000, and prey was predicted to be ample to support the revived seabird populations. Restored nutrient fluxes were predicted to result in increases in coral growth rates, reef fish biomasses, and parrotfish grazing and bioerosion rates. Given these potential cross-ecosystem benefits, our results support island restoration as a conservation priority that could enhance resilience to climatic change effects, such as sea-level rise and coral bleaching. We encourage the incorporation of our estimates of cross-ecosystem benefits in prioritization exercises for island restoration.

Vegetation discrimination based on chlorophyll prediction in Marshy wetland using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Abstract Wetlands are an integral part of our global ecosystems and play crucial roles in ecological functions such as carbon sequestration, flood mitigation, water purification, and recreational activities. The Ramsar Convention is the most significant wetland protection pact and is doing tremendous work in conserving wetlands worldwide. However, the wetlands area is still under threat due to anthropogenic activity. The current study utilized drone images, chlorophyll measurements and machine leaning to discriminate and map vegetation at marsh wetland area—the Ramsar site. The high‐resolution, multispectral imagery is acquired using a drone‐mounted MICAsense sensor. Eight spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Two‐Band Algorithm (2BDA), Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Enhanced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (ENDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), and Normalised Difference RedEdge (NDRE) were calculated on the acquired imagery in order to discriminate the different vegetation covers such as floating aquatic vegetation (FAV), open water, and other vegetations types. These include the following: Eichhornia, Nymphea, Oleracea, Paspalam, and Oryza from agriculture land at the study site. Two models (viz., the Taylor plot and the Lek Profile methods) were employed to assess the sensitivity of the spectral indices for prediction of chlorophyll and vegetation discrimination. It is inferred from both methods that NDCI was most sensitive for chlorophyll prediction of vegetation followed by NGRDI/ ENDVI/ 2BDA and NDVI for chlorophyll prediction in wetland ecosystems. Further, three machine learning algorithms, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and gradient tree boost (GTB), were utilized for classification, and the performance accuracy of GTB was found to be the highest (0.893), followed by RF (0.851) and SVM (0.723). The GTB algorithm was applied over NDCI for vegetation discrimination. The study revealed that Eichhronia sp. is abundantly present at the study site; hence, strategic management plans should be carried out for the eradication of invasive species and proper management of wetland vegetation.

Field validation of an eDNA assay for nutria illuminates a role in invasive species management.

Nutria, or coypu (Myocastor coypus), are invasive semi-aquatic rodents present across the United States, Europe, and Asia. Despite successful eradication efforts in certain areas, nutria have resurged in the mid-Atlantic USA, underscoring the need for advanced monitoring tools. Environmental DNA (eDNA) has emerged as a promising technique for species detection and monitoring. Here, an eDNA assay for nutria using qPCR was field-validated in Virginia, USA, showcasing its potential as a tool for post-eradication monitoring. The findings reveal an association between water levels and detection of nutria eDNA, highlighting the importance of water levels in nutria behavior. A painted turtle assay was introduced to confirm nutria absence and demonstrate the potential of passive sampling. The study showcases the sensitivity and efficiency of eDNA assays, emphasizing their value for monitoring and verifying invasive species eradication.

Environmental (and Random?) Sex Determination in Endangered and Invasive Phelsuma Geckos

Introduction: Sex is a fundamental characteristic of an individual. It is therefore puzzling why in some systems sex is precisely determined by a genotype, while in others it is influenced by the environment or even subtle, not to say random, factors. Some stochasticity in sex determination would be expected if environmental conditions did not have a large sex-specific effect on fitness. Although data are only available for a small fraction of species, geckos show exceptional variability in sex determination. Methods: We tested the effects of three incubation temperatures on sex ratio and adult body size in the invasive gecko Phelsuma laticauda and the vulnerable gecko Phelsuma nigristriata. Results: We document temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in both species. Only females hatched at a low temperature (24°C), whereas male production peaked at an intermediate temperature (28°C) and declined, at least in P. laticauda, again at the highest temperature (31°C). Interestingly, full siblings hatched from eggs glued together during the incubation at temperatures producing both sexes are often of the opposite sex. We found no significant effect of incubation temperature on adult body length. Conclusions: Documentation of TSD in the day geckos has implications for conservation practice in environmental management of endangered species or eradication of invasive species. However, it appears that a very subtle (random?) factor may also be involved in their sex determination. In line with this, we found no significant effect of incubation temperature on adult body length.

Environmental DNA for assessing impact and recovery of aquatic communities in an invaded mountain lake

Beaulieu J, Yates MC, Astorg L, Trépanier-Leroux D, Jeon H, Rudko SP, Humphries S, Fraser DJ, Cristescu ME, Derry AM. 2024. Environmental DNA for assessing impact and recovery of aquatic communities in an invaded mountain lake. Lake Reserv Manage. 40:111–131. The eradication of invasive species and associated side effects that influence the reestablishment of biological communities is a major challenge for conservation management of invaded ecosystems. We present a before-and-after-disturbance whole lake manipulation study from a high-elevation mountain lake in which we applied a 2-pronged approach to environmental DNA (eDNA) for assessing (1) impact and recovery of aquatic communities to the chemical eradication of invasive brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and (2) the success of chemical eradication of the invasive fish. Using 18S and cytochrome oxidase I (COI) eDNA metabarcoding, we contribute to a paucity of literature that has comprehensively addressed nontarget effects of rotenone for invasive fish eradication on aquatic communities. We found that key trophic groups (phytoplankton, fungi, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates) changed in community composition in response to rotenone applications. Fungi and macroinvertebrates, but not zooplankton and phytoplankton, reverted back toward pre-rotenone communities over the time scale of 2 yr. However, COI failed to detect several key species for food web reestablishment that were detected using physical specimen collection, likely due to low primer efficiency. We also found that quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), using species-specific primers, was effective for detecting brook trout presence/absence, although strong eDNA signals likely produced from carcasses in the ecosystem limited the utility of eDNA immediately following rotenone treatment. We provide specific recommendations for lake managers for the future application of eDNA approaches to monitor invasive fish eradication efforts and nontarget community effects for lake ecosystem restoration.

Secondary invasion by an invasive shrub limits native tree seedling growth in a size‐dependent manner following the eradication of a different invasive species in an island ecosystem

Following the control of an invasive tree species, native forest ecosystem restoration can be prevented by a secondary invasion by another invasive species that inhibits the reestablishment of native trees. In this study, we evaluated the effects of the invasive shrub Leucaena leucocephala on the initial growth of planted seedlings of four native tree species (Pandanus boninensis, Rhaphiolepis indica, Schima mertensiana, and Terminalia catappa) after eradication of the invasive tree Casuarina equisetifolia in the Ogasawara Islands in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. In a 24‐month field experiment, we compared the sizes of planted seedlings (diameter at ground level, height, and leaf number) among four treatments in a 2 × 2 design of initial seedling size (large vs. small) × L. leucocephala invasion (sowing L. leucocephala seeds vs. control). More than 75% of the seedlings (excluding S. mertensiana) survived regardless of the treatments. For all four species, initially large seedlings tended to become larger plants at the end of the experiment than initially small seedlings. We detected significant effects of L. leucocephala invasion on one or more plant size parameters in all four species. Seedlings grown in L. leucocephala invasion quadrats were smaller than those in control quadrats at the end of the experiment. We detected significant interactions between initial seedling sizes and L. leucocephala invasion for three species. Together, these results indicate that secondary invasion by L. leucocephala after controlling C. equisetifolia inhibits the initial growth of native tree seedlings, depending on their size at the time of invasion.

Using Plant Functional Traits to Define the Biomass Energy Potential of Invasive Alien Plant Species.

The eradication of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) is mandatory worldwide, but the resulting biomass is still considered waste. The energy use of biomasses obtained from IAPS eradication may represent ecological and economic benefits, creating synergies with restoration projects. We evaluated whether the growth forms and functional types identified using the functional space of 63 IAPS corresponded to a possible bioenergy use through multivariate analysis techniques. We extracted leaf and nutrient traits and Grime's CSR plant strategies from an existing database. We calculated the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) and gross heating value (GHV) as indicators of biochemical or thermal processes, respectively. For 10 species, we measured the above-ground biomass C:N and GHV (including leaves, stems and branches) and correlated them with those of leaves and with plant adaptive strategies. We identified four groups of IAPS indicative of the main trade-offs between plant economics and size variation, which respectively correlated with C:N and GHV. Herbaceous IAPS were better suited to biochemical processes, and woody IAPS to thermal ones. Overall, Grime's CSR strategies were the best tool to define the IAPS bioenergy potential. In the long term, competitive and ruderal IAPSs can represent a reusable feedstock until their complete eradication.

Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species

Invasive species eradication campaigns often fail due to stochastic arrival events, unpredictable detectability and incorrect resource allocation. Severe uncertainty in model parameter estimates may skew the eradication policy results. Using info-gap decision theory, this research aims to provide managers with a method to quantify their confidence in realizing successful eradication of particular invasive species within their specified eradication budgets (i.e. allowed eradication cost) in face of information-gaps. The potential introduction of the Asian house gecko Hemidactylus frenatus to Barrow Island, Australia is used as a case study to illustrate the model. Results of this research demonstrate that, more robustness to uncertainty in the model parameters can be earnt by (1) increasing the allowed eradication cost (2) investment in pre-border quarantine and border inspection (i.e. prevention) or (3) investment in post-border detection surveillance. The combination of a post-border spatial dispersal model and info-gap decision theory demonstrates a novel and spatially efficient method for managers to evaluate the robustness of eradication policies for incursion of invasive species with unexpected behaviour. These methods can be used to provide insight into the success of management goals, in particular the eradication of invasive species on islands or in broader mainland areas. These insights will assist in avoiding eradication failure and wasteful budget allocation and labour investment.

Recovery of insular seabird populations years after rodent eradication.

Seabirds have been particularly affected by invasive non-native species, which has led to the implementation of numerous eradication campaigns for the conservation of these keystone and highly vulnerable species. Although the benefits of eradication of invasive non-native species for seabird conservation have been demonstrated, the recovery kinetics of different seabird populations on islands after eradication remains poorly evaluated. We conducted long-term monitoring of the number of breeding pairs of seven seabird species on a small atoll, Surprise Island, New Caledonia (southwestern tropical Pacific). Marine avifauna of the island were surveyed yearly 4 years before to 4 years after rodent eradication (conducted in 2005), and we conducted multiple one-time surveys from ∼10 years before and ∼15 years after eradication. We sought to determine how different seabird species responded to the eradication of invasive rodents in an insular environment. Three species responded positively (two- to 10-fold increase in population size) to eradication with differences in lag time and sensitivity. The number of breeding pairs increased (effect sizes = 0.49-0.95 and 0.35-0.52) for two species over 4 years post-eradication due to immigration. One species had a longer (at least 5 years) response time than all others; breeding pairs increased for over 10 years after eradication. Long-term sampling was necessary to observe the responses of the seabird populations on the island because of the delayed response of a species to eradication not visible in the first years after eradication. Our results confirmed the positive effects of eradication of invasive non-native species on seabirds and emphasize the importance of mid- and long-term pre- and posteradication surveys to decipher the mechanisms of seabird recovery and confirm the benefits of eradication for conservation purposes.

Invasive species eradication: How do we declare success?

Abstract Deciding whether or not eradication of an invasive species has been successful is one of the main dilemmas facing managers of eradication programmes. When the species is no longer being detected, a decision must be made about when to stop the eradication programme and declare success. In practice, this decision is usually based on ad hoc rules, which may be inefficient. Since surveillance undertaken to confirm species absence is imperfect, any declaration of eradication success must consider the risk and the consequences of being wrong. If surveillance is insufficient, then eradication may be falsely declared (a Type I error), whereas continuation of surveillance when eradication has already occurred wastes resources (a Type II error). We review the various methods that have been developed for quantifying these errors and incorporating them into the decision-making process. We conclude with an overview of future developments likely to improve the practice of determining invasive species eradication success.

A local eradication pilot study of methods for feral pig eradication on Auckland Island

Since their liberation in 1807, feral pigs (Sus scrofa) have negatively impacted ecosystem health and processes on subantarctic Auckland Island, New Zealand. Eradication of invasive alien species is often critical to restoration programmes and preventing species extinctions. Eradication programmes utilising multiple techniques have allowed feral pig eradications on large islands. Protracted eradication programmes can have a higher risk of failure due to factors such as biological, logistical, social, and funding support.

Analytical Bayesian approach for the design of surveillance and control programs to assess pest-eradication success

Large invasive species eradication programs are undertaken to protect native biodiversity and agriculture. Programs are typically followed by a series of surveys to assess the likelihood of eradication success and, when residual pests are detected, small-scale control or ‘mop-ups’ are implemented to eliminate these infestations. Further surveys follow to confirm absence with ‘freedom’ declared when a target probability of absence is reached. Such biosecurity programs comprise many interacting processes — stochastic biological processes including growth, and response and control interventions — and are an important component of post-border biosecurity. Statistical frameworks formulated to contribute to the design and efficiency of these surveillance and control programs are few and, those available, rely on the simulation of the component processes. In this paper we formulate an analytical Bayesian framework for a general biosecurity program with multiple components to assess pest-eradication success. Our model incorporates stochastic growth and detection processes, and several pest control mechanisms. Survey results and economic considerations are also taken into account to support a range of biosecurity management decisions. Using a case study we demonstrate that solutions match published simulation results and extend the available analysis. Principally, we show how analytical solutions can offer a powerful tool to support the design of effective and cost-efficient biosecurity systems, and we establish some general principles that guide and contribute to robust design.

Prioritising the eradication of invasive species from island archipelagos with high reinvasion risk

Abstract Eradicating invasive species from islands is a proven method for safeguarding threatened and endangered species from extinction. Island eradications can deliver lasting benefits, but require large up‐front expenditure of limited conservation resources. The choice of islands must therefore be prioritised. Numerous tools have been developed to prioritise island eradications, but none fully account for the risk of those eradicated species later returning to the island: reinvasion. In this paper, we develop a prioritisation method for island eradications that accounts for the complexity of the reinvasion process. By merging spatially explicit metapopulation modelling with stochastic dynamic optimisation techniques, we construct a decision‐support tool that optimises conservation outcomes in the presence of reinvasion risk. We applied this tool to two different case studies—rat (Rattus rattus) invasions in the Seaforth archipelago in New Zealand, and cane toad (Rhinella marina) invasions in the Dampier archipelago in Australia—to illustrate how state‐dependent optimal policies can maximise expected conservation gains. In both case studies, incorporating reinvasion risk dramatically altered the optimal order of island eradications, and improved the potential conservation benefits. The increase in benefits was larger in Dampier than Seaforth (42% improvement versus 6%), as a consequence of both the characteristics of the invasive species, and the arrangement of the islands. Synthesis and applications. Our results illustrate the potential consequences of ignoring reinvasion risk. We recommend that reinvasion risk be explicitly included in any island eradication prioritisation involving an archipelago, particularly when some islands are close to the mainland.

The global contribution of invasive vertebrate eradication as a key island restoration tool

Islands are global hotspots for biodiversity and extinction, representing ~ 5% of Earth’s land area alongside 40% of globally threatened vertebrates and 61% of global extinctions since the 1500s. Invasive species are the primary driver of native biodiversity loss on islands, though eradication of invasive species from islands has been effective at halting or reversing these trends. A global compendium of this conservation tool is essential for scaling best-practices and enabling innovations to maximize biodiversity outcomes. Here, we synthesize over 100 years of invasive vertebrate eradications from islands, comprising 1550 eradication attempts on 998 islands, with an 88% success rate. We show a significant growth in eradication activity since the 1980s, primarily driven by rodent eradications. The annual number of eradications on islands peaked in the mid-2000s, but the annual area treated continues to rise dramatically. This trend reflects increases in removal efficacy and project complexity, generating increased conservation gains. Our synthesis demonstrates the collective contribution of national interventions towards global biodiversity outcomes. Further investment in invasive vertebrate eradications from islands will expand biodiversity conservation while strengthening biodiversity resilience to climate change and creating co-benefits for human societies.

Heterogeneity-Based Management Restores Diversity and Alters Vegetation Structure without Decreasing Invasive Grasses in Working Mixed-Grass Prairie

Non-native plants can reduce grassland biodiversity, degrade wildlife habitat, and threaten rural livelihoods. Management can be costly, and the successful eradication of undesirable species does not guarantee the restoration of ecosystem service delivery. An alternative to the eradication of invasive species in rangelands is to target the restoration of diversity and heterogeneous plant structure, which have direct links to ecosystem function. In this study, we evaluate patch-burn grazing (PBG) with one and two fires per year and variably stocked rotational grazing in Poa pratensis- and Bromus inermis-invaded grasslands using traditional (cover) and process-based (diversity and vegetation structural heterogeneity) frameworks in central North Dakota, USA. Within 3–4 years of initiating management, we found little evidence of decreased Poa pratensis and Bromus inermis cover compared to continuous grazing (Poa pratensis F3,12 = 0.662, p = 0.59; Bromus inermis F3,12 = 0.13, p = 0.13). However, beta diversity increased over time in all treatments compared to continuous grazing (tPBG1 = 2.71, tPBG2 = 3.45, tRotational = 3.72), and variably stocked rotational treatments had greater increases in spatial heterogeneity in litter depth and vegetation structure than continuously grazed pastures (tvisual obstruction= 2.42, p = 0.03; tlitter depth = 2.59, p = 0.02) over the same time period. Alternative frameworks that promote grassland diversity and heterogeneity support the restoration of ecological services and processes in invaded grasslands.

Aquatic Invasive Species: Traditional Control Options to Emerging Genetic Bio-control Strategies

Worldwide, alien species invasion already constitutes to be a major threat to the biodiversity of various ecosystems, particularly in freshwater ecosystems, and with a warming of the climate, the range of habitats suitable for its establishment may increase further. Though it is possible to manage invasive aquatic species in small invaded areas by physical removal, use of barriers or biocides, and environmental modifications, once established and widely distributed, the eradication of invasive species often becomes impractical. To date, biological control is considered the prime realistic option for controlling well established and widely distributed invasive species. But the application of classical biological control methods using unmodified living organisms (predator, parasite or pathogen) to control target populations of alien fishes is very limited to date, mainly because of the difficulties in finding suitable agents. Recent advances in genetic technologies, like chromosome set manipulations or recombinant DNA techniques, or a combination of both techniques provide opportunities that could be used for the control and eradication of individual invasive species. Approaches like sterile-male, super male, female lethal, bisex-lethal, trojan female, sex-reversed trojan female, neo female, daughterless technology, and CRISPR/CAS9 – gene editing are considered far more species-specific than mechanical or chemical methods, and also efficient and cost-effective. However, just a few trials of some of these methods have been undertaken in the field to date, and hence there is still a long way to go before tuning genetic biocontrol approaches into an on-field reality.

Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long‐lived seabird supports need for eradication

AbstractInvasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, and the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long‐lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments.Albatrosses are amongst the longest‐living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess albatross population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species.We used population monitoring and mark‐recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the critically endangered Tristan albatrossDiomedea dabbenenaby accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory of Tristan albatrosses for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house miceMus musculuson their main breeding site, Gough Island.The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9,795 to 7,752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two‐fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8–7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10,352 individuals) than without this intervention.Low reproductive output for long‐lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the population structure. Mouse eradication is necessary to halt the ongoing population decrease of the Tristan albatross, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size.