Intraseasonal Oscillation Research Articles

Influence of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on temperature and precipitation in South Korea

AbstractThe boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a major mode of sub‐seasonal variability that regulates the summer climate in East Asia. This study investigates the four possible effects of two different time‐scale BSISOs on temperature and precipitation variations in South Korea. When active BSISO convection is positioned over the subtropical western Pacific, it induces anomalous anticyclonic circulation accompanied by subsidence, leading to significant positive temperature anomalies. Conversely, the anomalous cyclonic circulation near the Korean Peninsula, resulting from suppressed convection in the subtropical western Pacific, along with low‐level cold advection anomalies, contributes to a decrease in temperature. The spatial distribution of BSISO convection, which drives precipitation variation, shows a distinctive pattern of three meridionally narrow cells extending from the Philippines to the Korean Peninsula. Suppressed (enhanced) convection to the north of 20°N in the western North Pacific (WNP) promotes the northwestward expansion (eastward contraction) of the WNP Subtropical High in conjunction with a southwesterly (northeasterly) moisture flux anomaly. Furthermore, enhanced (reduced) moisture flux convergence and intensified ascending (descending) motion create favorable conditions for positive (negative) precipitation anomalies in South Korea. The combined effect of BSISOs not only amplifies the mean temperature and precipitation anomalies compared to individual modes but also increases the frequency of warmer, wetter, and drier events. Therefore, monitoring both BSISO modes together is crucial for comprehending and predicting the anomalous summer climate in South Korea.

Boreal Summer Extratropical Intraseasonal Oscillation Prediction in Current Subseasonal‐To‐Seasonal Operational Models Over Eurasia

AbstractExtratropical intraseasonal oscillations (EISO), which is akin to the tropical ISO, significantly influence mid‐high‐latitude intraseasonal variability. Previous studies have shown that biases in the dynamical prediction of EISOs reduce the accuracy of subseasonal forecasts for extreme events, particularly in extratropical regions. However, the current dynamical prediction skills of EISO and associated dependence remain unclarified. Based on the recently proposed EISO metrics, which represent three dominant zonally propagating EISO modes traveling along the westerly jets, this study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the EISOs' prediction skill in 13 state‐of‐the‐art subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Firstly, the S2S models display skill to predict the EISOs out to a range of 9–20 days, which demonstrates higher predictability compared to other conventional circulation modes in the extratropics. In the subseasonal prediction, EISOs' amplitudes are underestimated, and their propagating speeds feature large random errors in all S2S models. Secondly, the EISOs' prediction skill depends on their initial/target amplitude, particularly for strong target amplitudes, which showcase higher skill than weak‐amplitude EISOs. Thirdly, although the EISOs' prediction skill is sensitive to the EISOs' phase, it is not locked to any fixed phase, indicating that EISOs do not have an inherent prediction barrier like the tropical ISO. This study also discusses how the humidity initialization and ensemble sizes influence the EISOs' prediction skill, suggesting that increasing the ensemble members in the saturation range is an effective way of improving the prediction for extratropical subseasonal variation and related extreme events.

Multiscale sea level variability on the western Bay of Bengal: A study using tide gauge and satellite observations

The study examines the tidal variability and intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) of sea level using tide gauge observations collected during the year 2014 at four stations: Gardenreach, Paradeep, Kakinada, and Ennore along the western Bay of Bengal (BoB). In the first part, the tidal analysis of sea level data shows the dominance of M2 tides followed by S2, N2, K1, and O1 at all the stations. The tides are usually semidiurnal in nature over BoB, represented through the form factor, which is maximum over Ennore (0.21) and minimum over Gardenreach (0.10). The tidal amplitudes increase gradually northward along the western BoB due to interaction with the shallow continental shelf. The topography and coastal geometry also impact the shallow-water constituents (M4 and MS4) significantly at all the locations. Another noteworthy finding is the higher amplitude of M2 tide during the post-monsoon seasons because of the higher stratification of the water column. In the second part, the presence of different non-tidal signals from the residual sea level and altimetry gridded data are studied as well. The correlation coefficient between Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) data from altimetry and the Tide Gauge data are as high as 0.94, 0.91, and 0.90 at Paradeep, Kakinada and Ennore, respectively. The spectral analysis ensures the dominance of the signals with periodicity of 20–60 days in the BoB, which is probably caused due to the monsoon ISOs and Madden Julian Oscillations. The 10–20 days oscillations are also observed with significant amplitudes primarily at Gardenreach which attributes to the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations. The signature of seasonally varying coastally trapped Kelvin Waves is also identified on the western BoB from both the satellite and Tide Gauge data. The strength of the intraseasonal variability significantly increases during negative Indian Ocean Dipole years with respect to the positive years. The study identified the usefulness of the sea level observation to monitor the multiscale variation within the tides to the interannual scales along the Indian coast.

Possible Causes for the Unprecedented Low/High Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Northern Pacific/Atlantic in 2023 El Niño

AbstractThis study reported the unprecedented tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) during the developing year of the 2023/2024 El Niño. The possible causes behind these unusual features were addressed. In contrast to previous El Niño events, an unusual low/high TC genesis number in the WNP/NA was identified during the typhoon season (June–November) in 2023. Meanwhile, the mean TC genesis location in the WNP exhibited a La Niña‐like northwestward shift, rarely observed in an El Niño developing year. An observational diagnosis on TC‐genesis‐related large‐scale dynamics and thermodynamics revealed that the lower/higher TC numbers in the WNP/NA were primarily attributed to an anticyclonic/cyclonic anomaly linked to trans‐basin sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropics and extratropics. Additionally, weaker intraseasonal oscillation activity compared to previous El Niños also partially contributed to fewer TCs in the WNP.

Structure, Propagation of the 10–25-Day and 30–60-Day Intraseasonal Oscillations and Their Role in Triggering the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Abstract The onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is a complex process that involves multiscale variabilities, including the 10–25-day high-frequency intraseasonal oscillation (HISO) and the 30–60-day low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation (LISO) along with the seasonal variation. Using the reanalysis and satellite data during the period of 1979–2020, this study comprehensively investigates how the HISO and LISO trigger the SCSSM onset, which improves the understanding of the abrupt SCSSM onset from the point of intraseasonal view. It is clearly documented that in most years, the abrupt SCSSM onsets are triggered by the first branch of HISO and/or LISO propagating into the northern SCS along their distinctive pathways. The HISOs (LISO) originating from the northwestern Pacific Ocean (tropical eastern Indian Ocean) propagates westward (northeastward) toward central-to-northern SCS. The diagnosis based on the moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals the different governing mechanisms of HISO and LISO propagations. HISO’s westward propagation is favored by the zonal advection of the anomalous MSE by the mean easterly wind. In contrast, the surface turbulent heating by sea surface temperature (SST) is the dominant term for LISO’s northward propagation, followed by the meridional advection of the anomalous MSE by the mean southerly wind. Significance Statement This study provides the comprehensive intraseasonal view of the SCSSM onset, where the respective roles of 10–20-day HISO and 30–60-day LISO in triggering the SCSSM onset are identified and their propagating mechanisms are revealed. The prevailing easterlies in the northwestern Pacific and SST-induced turbulent heat flux in SCS are confirmed as the respective dominant processes governing their distinct propagations. These results improve the understanding of the SCSSM onset and hence have significant implication to the monitoring, simulation, and prediction of SCSSM.

Role of Tropical Disturbances along the South Asian Monsoon Trough in the 2022 Pakistan Floods and the Implications for Interannual Variability

Abstract This study examined the atmospheric circulation patterns that were responsible for the severe flooding that occurred in Pakistan in 2022. It focused on the role of westward-propagating tropical disturbances (TDs) along the South Asian monsoon trough, which are associated with flood-related precipitation events. The study also investigated the interannual precipitation variation in Pakistan over 23 years from 2000 to 2022, using satellite-derived precipitation and atmospheric reanalysis. The results showed high precipitation in southern and central Pakistan, implying tropical influences. The precipitation was the highest in the past 23 years. The massive rainfall was brought by several TDs under the highest water vapor conditions, although a TD of South Asia climatologically tends to weaken before affecting Pakistan. Enhanced easterlies along the Indo-Gangetic Plain, part of the enhanced monsoon trough, supported high water vapor conditions over Pakistan. The high water vapor was also partly supported by the long-lasting active phase of the South Asian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in 2022. Moreover, the La Niña condition increased moisture transport as a background. On an interannual time scale, the enhanced moisture flux over the Indo-Gangetic Plain resulted in higher precipitation over Pakistan, as occurred in 2022. These high (low) water vapor and precipitation can be partly explained by La Niña (El Niño). However, La Niña and El Niño may not control the TD activity over South Asia. Thus, for 2022, the high water vapor is somewhat empirically predictable, but the active TD activity can be coincidental. Significance Statement In 2022, Pakistan was hit by catastrophic flooding that affected 15% of the population. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation associated with the flooding indicates that weak but rain-bearing tropical disturbances played a significant role in flooding. Several tropical disturbances stayed or moved into Pakistan, bringing massive rainfall although, usually, they tend to weaken before hitting Pakistan. In the past 23 years, La Niña–related weather patterns have partly explained the year-to-year precipitation variation in Pakistan. However, in 2022, the unusually heavy flooding was due to the combined La Niña effect and tropical disturbance activity. Because it is still difficult to predict the seasonal tropical disturbance activity from La Niña, El Niño, and other climatic conditions, seasonal prediction of these floods remains challenging.

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event

In August 2022, Pakistan experienced unprecedented monsoon rains, leading to devastating floods and landslides affecting millions. While previous research has mainly focused on the contributions of seasonal and synoptic anomalies, this study elucidates the dominant influences of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations on both the occurrence and subseasonal prediction of this extreme rainfall event. Our scale-decomposed moisture budget analysis revealed that intense rainfall in Pakistan was triggered and sustained by enhanced vertical moisture transport anomalies, primarily driven by interactions between intraseasonal circulation anomalies and the prevailing background moisture field when tropical and mid-latitude systems coincided over Pakistan. Evaluation of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models further highlighted the critical role of tropical intraseasonal modes in causing this extreme rainfall event in Pakistan. Models that accurately predicted northward-propagating intraseasonal convection with a forecast lead time of 8–22 days demonstrated good skill in predicting the extreme event over Pakistan.

Role of midtropospheric heating and surface forcing on monsoon intraseasonal transitions

AbstractMonsoon intraseasonal transitions are intrinsically chaotic; hence, their predictability is limited. In the past the majority of studies were conducted solely keeping in account of dynamic prospective like boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation or Madden–Julian oscillation; however its thermodynamic aspect got limited attention. The current study looks at the internal thermodynamic mechanisms pertaining to monsoon intraseasonal transition using two independent sets of reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 and Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis), along with the observed cloud type from Met Office Integrated Data Archive System Land and Marine surface station data. A lead–lag composite analysis shows that the midtropospheric warming by diabatic heating is a thermal control to restrict the deepening of convective cloud (cumulonimbus) as the wet spell progresses. This midtroposhperic heating cuts off the formation of deep convective clouds and results in the formation of relatively shallow clouds, such as stratocumulus and stratus. On the other hand, surface forcing during dry spells humidifies the troposphere by detrainment from the shallow convection with the formation of cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds. This facilitates the preconditioning of the atmosphere for deep convection and results in the onset of wet spells by the formation of cumulonimbus clouds. The comprehensive approach used in this work may further help in identifying the limitation of the predictability in monsoon transition period from the numerical weather prediction models.

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.

Roles of the Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Long-Lasting Compound Heatwave over Southern China in 2010

Roles of the Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Long-Lasting Compound Heatwave over Southern China in 2010

High-resolution numerical modelling of seasonal volume, freshwater, and heat transport along the Indian coast

Abstract. Seasonal reversal of winds and equatorial remote forcing influences the circulation of the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) basins in the northern Indian Ocean. In this study, we numerically modelled the physical characteristics of the AS and BoB, using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a high spatial resolution of 1/20° forced with climatological initial and boundary conditions. The simulated temperature, salinity, and flow fields were validated with satellite and in situ datasets. We then studied the exchange of coastal waters by evaluating transports computed from the model simulations. The alongshore volume transport on the eastern coast is stronger with high seasonal variability due to the poleward-flowing western boundary current and equatorward-flowing East Indian Coastal Current. West coast transport is influenced by large intraseasonal oscillations. The alongshore freshwater transport is an order less than the alongshore volume transport. Out of the net volume transport, freshwater accounts for a maximum of 6.03 % during the southwestern monsoon season, followed by 4.85 % in the post-monsoon season. We observe an inverse relationship between alongshore freshwater and volume transport on the western coast and a direct relationship on the eastern coast. The contribution of eddy-induced heat and freshwater transport was also examined. The relation between net heat transport and net heat flux illustrates the role of coastal currents and equatorial forcing in dissipating heat within the coastal waters. We observed that meridional heat transport over the AS is stronger than over the BoB. Both basins act as a heat source during the summer monsoon and heat sink during the winter. This high-resolution model setup simulates all the important physical climatological patterns, leading to a better understanding of the state of the northern Indian Ocean.

Different Influence of Two Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Spring Long‐Lived and Medium‐Lived Consecutive Cloudy‐Rainy Events in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River Valley

AbstractIn this study, the mechanisms for the long‐lived and medium‐lived regional consecutive cloudy‐rainy events (RCCREs) in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River valley (YHRV) are investigated by comparing the influences of 10–30‐day and 30–90‐day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The evolution of medium‐lived RCCREs is generally dominated by the 10–30‐day ISO, while the 10–30‐day and 30–90‐day ISOs synergistically contribute to the occurrence of long‐lived RCCREs. Further analysis reveals that, when the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) shifts northward to the north of YHRV, a RCCRE in the YHRV occurs in 2 days later. In the medium‐lived RCCREs, the EAWJ retreats southward rapidly; while in the long‐lived RCCREs, the stronger 30–90‐day ISO prevents the southward retreat of EAWJ, which favors the persistence of the RCCREs in the YHRV. The northward shifted EAWJ facilitates the RCCREs by modulating the secondary atmospheric circulation, consequently enhancing the moisture convergence and ascending motion anomalies over the YHRV. The RCCREs‐related precursor wave train originates from northern Europe with at least a 4‐day lead. The wave train propagates southeastward to excite an anomalous high over East Asia, which contributes to the northward shift of EAWJ and subsequently the occurrence of RCCREs. Different from the rapid weakness of the precursor wave train associated with the medium‐lived RCCREs, the precursor wave train associated with the long‐lived RCCREs can be maintained by the 30–90‐day ISO, which consequently leads to a persistence of the northward located EAWJ and long‐lived RCCREs in the YHRV.

A New Paradigm for Active–Break Cycle in the Indian Summer Monsoon

Abstract A multichannel singular spectrum analysis of 121 years of daily rainfall over India and 43 years of outgoing longwave radiation and horizontal wind has revealed two dominant intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) that describe the space–time variability of monsoon rainfall. The two nonlinear oscillations are not perfectly periodic but exhibit broadband spectra centered at 45 and 28 days. These modes have coherent and near-regular spatial structure and temporal variations. This study posits that the two nonlinear oscillations provide a consistent and comprehensive framework to study the variability and predictability of intraseasonal rainfall variations. The active and break cycles of monsoon rainfall over India have been traditionally defined by using an arbitrarily chosen duration of persistence of arbitrarily chosen amount of rainfall averaged over an arbitrarily chosen area. This study shows that the phases of the two objectively derived modes of variability provide an objective method for defining the active and break cycles. The two ISOs are further shown to make negligible contribution to the seasonal mean rainfall and its interannual variability. This study proposes that the investigations of the origins of these nonlinear modes, and modulations of their amplitudes and phases, provide a new paradigm for future research on validation and predictability of intraseasonal variations in climate models.

Enhanced northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the western north Pacific linked to the tropical Indian Ocean warming

While decadal changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have received considerable attention, the corresponding changes in Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) have yet to be well understood. In this study, we show the enhanced northward propagation of BSISO in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2000s compared to the 1980s–1990s. Observational analyses and model experiments suggest this enhancement is partially attributed to the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming. The TIO warming tends to increase the air-sea interaction, enhancing moisture anomalies in the free atmosphere. Consequently, this increase in moisture anomalies strengthens BSISO-scale convection through increased convective anomalies at the north of the BSISO center, thereby enhancing the northward propagation of BSISO. Additionally, vorticity changes resulting from mean-state zonal vertical shear also contribute to the BSISO decadal change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering the interaction between BSISO and changes in the ocean mean state in future assessments.

Improving sub-seasonal extreme precipitation forecasts over China through a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework

Skillful and reliable sub-seasonal extreme precipitation forecasts are crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we introduce a hybrid statistical-dynamical framework to predict monthly maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1D) and monthly maximum five-day precipitation (Rx5D) over China from May to October. In the hybrid statistical-dynamical framework, the ECMWF forecasts of precipitation and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) indices are used as predictors to establish calibration model and bridging models, separately. The calibration model and bridging models are then merged to generate probabilistic forecasts of Rx1D and Rx5D. Our results suggest that the bridging models show better performance in predicting Rx1D and Rx5D than calibration model in May, June, and July when the BSISO indices are used as predictors. The forecast skill of calibration model is higher compared to bridging models in August, September, and October. The BMA merged forecasts take advantage of both calibration model and bridging models, and can provide skilful and reliable forecasts for both Rx1D and Rx5D prediction. To have a more comprehensive assessment, we also evaluate the prediction skill of the occurrence of extreme precipitation events with exceedance probabilities of 50%, 20%, and 5% for both Rx1D and Rx5D. The Brier skill score of merged forecasts indicates that the hybrid statistical-dynamical framework can also provide skilful forecasts for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events greater than one-in-5-year return value of Rx1D (5Rx1D) and one-in-5-year return value of Rx5D (5Rx5D) in comparison to long-term climatology. These findings demonstrate the great potential of combining dynamical models and statistical models in improving sub-seasonal extreme precipitation forecasts.

Importance of Intraseasonal Oscillation for the Regional Extreme Consecutive dry Days Events in Spring Over Southern China

AbstractThis study investigates the influences of intraseasonal oscillation on two types of regional extreme consecutive dry days events (RECDD) in spring over Southern China (SC). For type‐1 RECDD occurring in entire SC, the 7–25 days and 25–90 days high over Lake Balkhash‐Baikal are important. The 7–25 days high first causes lower‐tropospheric northerlies and moisture deficit in SC, then propagates to Yangtze River Basin and causes lower‐tropospheric warming and decaying moisture deficit in SC. These processes favor dry condition in SC for 1 week. In comparison, the 25–90 days high and associated lower‐tropospheric warming and moisture deficit in SC favor dry condition there for more than one week. For type‐2 RECDD occurring in the southern part of SC, the 7–25 days and 25–90 days high over Northeast Asia are important. The 7–25 days high contributes for one week. It first causes lower‐tropospheric anticyclone around the East China Sea and south‐negative–north‐positive moisture pattern in SC, then propagates to the Sea of Japan and causes lower‐tropospheric south‐warming–north‐cooling pattern and decaying south‐negative–north‐positive moisture pattern in SC. In comparison, the 25–90 days high and associated lower‐tropospheric south‐warming–north‐cooling pattern and south‐negative–north‐positive moisture pattern in SC favor south‐dry–north‐wet pattern there for more than one week. Moreover, the 7–25 days low and decaying 25–90 days high over Lake Balkhash‐Baikal, concurring with 7–25 days low over Bay of Bengal, favor the end of type‐1 RECDD; the 7–25 days low and decaying 25–90 days high over Northeast Asia favor the end of type‐2 RECDD.

Changes in the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models

Changes in the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models

Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation Modulates the Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin

AbstractThe impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on rainfall anomalies in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) was found to be modulated by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), which is reasonable for the close associations between the QBO and summer extreme precipitation in the YHRB. It was found that the extreme precipitation preferentially occurred in the YHRB during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) compared to the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). This was primarily because the BSISO was more prone to cause rainfall extremes in the YHRB during the EQBO summers than during the WQBO summers. The EQBO can induce the background stratospheric easterly wind to arch downward into the troposphere, which enhanced the BSISO‐associated moisture transport and moisture convergence and thus resulted in stronger rainfall extremes in the YHRB.

Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere

Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere

Influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification over the Western North Pacific at the interannual timescale

Influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification over the Western North Pacific at the interannual timescale