Interstate Peace Research Articles

From Foes to Friends: The Causes of Interstate Rapprochement and Conciliation

When, why, and how do countries move from hostile to peaceful relations, and sometimes even friendship? We draw on the interstate peace literature to identify two peace processes. Rapprochement represents a first step during which enemies might develop normal working relations. Some states then progress to conciliation and establish warm and cooperative ties. We compare rapprochement to conciliation, outline the mechanisms that drive each process, and review scholarly findings about three types of causal variables: abrupt shocks, stable contextual factors, and policy initiatives. A key insight emerges that conciliation is not simply an extension of rapprochement—the predictors of these two processes differ significantly. We then call for greater scholarly attention to the study of conciliation, interactions of causal factors, the domestic politics underlying each process, the causes of peace failure, and empirical and methodological challenges.

When does liberal peace fail? Trade and nationalism

Liberal peace research maintains that trade interdependence promotes interstate peace. In this study, I introduce nationalism as an important domestic factor and examine how it fares against trade as an explanation for war and peace and their interaction effects. I propose that when state leaders promote nationalism to bolster political legitimacy, they may not be incentivized to foster liberal peace through trade and instead may be willing to conflict with trading partners. A cross-national, time-series statistical analysis shows that nationalist leaders are likely to cause the pacifying effect of trade to fall apart and increase the likelihood of (fatal) militarized disputes, but not necessarily open warfare. These findings suggest that when politico-security interests of nationalist leaders collide with global economic interests, the former prevail over the latter in the context of low-level conflict, but not necessarily high-level conflict. Even nationalist leaders appear to be cautious of engaging in all-out bloody war with trading partners—the economic pain is greater than the gain. Nevertheless, the overall analysis indicates that liberal peace theory may be not as sure a safeguard as previously believed since it is ineffective in lowering the risk of dyadic disputes short of war in the era of rising nationalism.

The Limited Scope of the Democratic Peace: What We Are Missing

AbstractThe democratic peace program arguably constitutes one of the most successful empirical research programs in the discipline. Its main empirical finding motivated extensive theorizing (e.g., challengers, as well as distinct theoretical enterprises), sparked further debate about how to conceptualize and operationalize democracy, and shifted the foreign policy discourse, particularly in the United States. Lost in these successes, however, is a critical unanswered question: how much interstate peace can the democratic peace potentially explain? We explore these limits (i.e., scope, or empirical coverage) in this study. We first identify the peaceful dyadic relationships—namely those that never go to war across long historical periods. We next classify these dyads as democratic (i.e., both members are democracies) or nondemocratic. The empirical analysis then examines this democracy–peace relationship across three time periods, three distinct samples (which address potential false positives), two definitions of “peace,” and two thresholds for democracy. Regardless of how we approach the data, only 4–26 percent of all peaceful dyads qualify as “democratic.” Because we control for the obvious trivial explanation (insufficient capabilities due to distance), some other (set of) factor(s) must account for the majority of interstate peace. We close with a discussion about where future research might search for these factors, as well as the larger policy implications of the study.

Constructing a “Democratic” Peace: Allied Peacebuilding Strategy in Germany and Japan

ABSTRACT Wheaton College, Department of Politics and International Relations A poor understanding of the causes of the “democratic peace” has contributed to poor policymaking, including attempts to impose democratic governments in order to establish interstate peace. This article explores how Allied policymakers sought to establish peace following World War II while imposing democratic regimes in Germany and Japan. Their strategy for permanently pacifying these countries relied on non-democratic mechanisms: imposing structural weaknesses and forbidding militaristic and hyper-nationalistic organizations and rhetoric. These remained central even following the contingencies of the Cold War. These findings further complicate the relationship between democratization and peacebuilding.

1)Religious Identity and the Democratic Peace

1990년대 이후 국제정치학자들은 민주국가가 서로 전쟁을 하지 않는다는 민주평화론을 둘러싼 논쟁과 연구를 지속하고 있다. 본 연구는 국가의 종교 정체성을 통하여 민주국가 간 협력의 원인을 규명하고자 하였다. 세계종교데이터(World Religion Data)를 통하여 제2차 세계대전 이후 국가쌍 내 기독교, 이슬람, 불교 등의 종교 유사성을 살펴본 후 국가 간 분쟁의 발발을 분석하였다. 그 결과 기독교, 개신교, 가톨릭 인구의 비율이 분쟁의 발발에 부정적 영향을 미친다는 사실을 발견했으며, 이러한 경향은 민주정치 제도가 자리 잡은 경우 더욱 강하게 드러나는 것을 확인했다. 향후 민주국가 간 협력과 평화에 대한 연구는 정치제도와 경제이익 뿐 아니라 정체성과 초국가 행위자를 아우르는 풍부한 이론적 탐색을 시도해야 할 것이다.International relations scholars have agreed that there is a strong correlation between shared democracy and interstate peace, but not on the causal relationship between these factors. In an effort to further explain what fosters peace between democracies, this study shifts the focus to the presence of a common predominant religion - in particular, Christian populations and organized groups. Using the World Religion Data, it examines the effects of Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, and other religions on dyadic conflict onset in the post-World War II period. The results show that the presence of a greater Christian, Protestant, or Catholic population share has negative and significant effects on the onset of (fatal) conflict, and that the pacifying effects of the Christian population share increase when the institutional constraints on political leadership are stronger. This implies that cooperation among democracies results at least partly from their shared religion and its transnational institutions.

Inter-State Border Conflict in North-East India with Special Reference to Assam Nagaland Border Conflict

This paper is an attempt to study the inter-state border disputes in north-east India with special reference to Assam-Nagaland border conflict in the border areas of Golaghat district. The north-east region of India comprising of eight states has been gradually transforming into a conflicting area that breaks the harmony between the states and also undermines the concept of north-east India as a prosperous and culturally rich region of India. Due to some social, political and economic issues, this north east India divided into various states which were under the same umbrella at a time. Several inter-state disputes take place in this region with the upcoming of political and social unrest. The Naga insurgency that started in the late 1950’s is known as one of the unresolved armed conflicts in India. So, through this paper the researcher makes an attempt to study how the recent Naga-Assamese clash happened in the border areas of Golaghat district is responsible for breaking down of communal harmony, humanity, and inter-state peace process. As the dispute between Assam and Nagaland is currently the most prominent with a history of violent clashes between border areas, this paper aims to concentrate mainly on this issue. Moreover this paper will try to examine the role of the government regarding the above issue. Thus the above issues will be highlighted in the paper.

Democratic peace: Does ethnic inclusiveness reduce interstate conflict?

In this study, we argue that ethnic inclusiveness is an important democratic norm that fosters interstate peace. When two states are socialized into the notion of ethnic tolerance, they acquire the ability to reach cooperative arrangements in time of crisis. Based on cross-national time-series data analysis covering the period 1950–2001, we illustrate how two states that are inclusive of their politically relevant ethnic groups are less likely to experience interstate disputes than states that remain exclusive. This finding was robust, regardless of sample size, intensity of the dispute, model specification, or estimation method. Therefore, we believe in the existence of ethnic peace: ethnic inclusiveness represents an unambiguous force for democratic peace.

The Blurring of Interstate Wars, Civil Wars and Peace

The Blurring of Interstate Wars, Civil Wars and Peace

When Less Is More: Constructing a Parsimonious Concept of Interstate Peace for Quantitative Analysis

When Less Is More: Constructing a Parsimonious Concept of Interstate Peace for Quantitative Analysis

Foundations for integrating the democratic and territorial peace arguments

The democratic and territorial peace arguments explain interstate peace via distinct mechanisms. Yet they can be integrated. I theoretically derive both the unique domains in which each argument might operate and the ways in which the two arguments might reinforce one another. An analysis of the period 1816–2001 demonstrates support for a more integrative approach. Within contiguous dyads, border settlement significantly reduces conflict, even for non-democratic dyads. Democratic dyads, however, experience no such effect in the absence of border settlement. Nonetheless, the democratic peace functions strongly in non-contiguous dyads, and even the most peaceful, contiguous dyads require both democracy and border settlement. Such findings offer a foundation for further theoretical development that integrates the two arguments.

The complex structure of commercial peace contrasting trade interdependence, asymmetry, and multipolarity

Researchers continue to debate the impact of trade on interstate conflict. While many view trade as pacifying, others argue that dependencies increase friction and the risk of war. We provide a theory that explains how cross-border economic ties alternately enhance or impede international cooperation. Three main factors account for the heterogeneous effects of trade on conflict: interdependence, asymmetry, and multipolarity. Interdependence can act as a substitute for, or as a deterrent to, militarized violence. In the former case, interdependence actually increases more modest non-militarized conflict, while also discouraging militarized disputes. Asymmetry diminishes the conflict-inhibiting effect of trade ties, as dependency cannot simultaneously be used to coerce and to inform. Multilateral trade networks alternately moderate or enhance the bilateral effects of interdependence and asymmetry on interstate peace. Our theory and evidence reveal complex, cross-cutting consequences of economic interdependence on conflict behavior and also demonstrate effects well beyond the dyad, suggesting the need to include extradyadic ties in future theoretical and empirical research studying the commercial peace.

Declining willingness to fight for one’s country

The Democratic Peace thesis suggests that the absence of war between major powers since 1945 is caused by the spread of democracy. The Capitalist Peace thesis emphasizes trade and the rise of knowledge economies as the forces driving peace. Complementing these interpretations, we present empirical evidence of a cultural change that is making peace more desirable to the publics of most societies around the world. Analyzing public opinion data covering 90% of the world’s population over three decades, we demonstrate that improving existential conditions elevate the life opportunities of growing population segments and lead them to become increasingly tolerant of diversity and place growing emphasis on self-realization. In recognition of life’s rising opportunities, people’s valuation of life changes profoundly: readiness to sacrifice one’s life gives way to an increasing insistence on living it, and living it the way one chooses. Hence, pro-choice values rise at the same time as willingness to sacrifice lives in war dwindles. Historical learning based on the specific experiences of given societies has also changed their publics’ willingness to fight in wars. This transformation of worldviews places interstate peace on an increasingly solid mass basis.

Reinventing the Kantean Peace: The Emerging Mass Basis of Global Security

This article demonstrates that inter-state peace is underpinned by an increasingly solid mass basis: representative survey data from around the world evidence a massive decline in people’s willingness to sacrifice their lives in war. To explain this finding, we test and confirm Welzel’s Evolutionary Emancipation Theory (EET). When improving existential conditions in a society turn most people’s lives from a source of threats to suffer into a source of opportunities to thrive, people adopt ‘emancipative values’: to allow themselves and others to take advantage of life’s widened opportunities, people increasingly support and tolerate universal freedoms. This emancipatory trend is most significant in a field in which the fixation of traditional survival norms on high fertility erected the strongest resistance against emancipation: reproductive freedoms. As a direct consequence of the emancipatory trend, people’s willingness to sacrifice their own and other people’s lives in war has dramatically declined. Hence, the emancipatory trend is a pacifist force that makes it increasingly difficult for government — especially in democracies — to find public support for waging wars.

Managing Security in a Zone of Peace: Brazil's Soft Approach to Regional Governance

Brazil’s home region has two peculiarities: first, it is essentially fuzzy as its extension and membership have changed overtime; second, regardless of its limits, its inner core has been characterized by a long period of interstate peace. These factors have led to two outcomes: first, high politics has been conducted through diplomatic rather than military means; second, region-building has remained under the strictest control of the governments rather than becoming self-sustaining. Regional public goods have been mostly defined on the negative, especially as the avoidance of negative externalities, and only recently has Brazil started to invest in the creation of a governance framework that keep extra-regional powers away. Yet, structural limitations and instrumental constraints have limited Brazilian efforts and turned South America into a still peaceful but increasingly divergent sub-region. Through an analysis of institutional overlap and policy networks, especially regarding nuclear energy and the environment, this paper shows that Brazil’s low, late and soft investment in regional security governance is explained by a combination of low regional risks, scarce domestic resources, a legalistic culture of dispute settlement, and transgovernmental networks that substitute for intense interstate cooperation and deep regional institutions.

Peace through globalization and capitalism? Prospects of two liberal propositions

The security externalities of globalization and capitalism continue to play an influential role in peace research. Typical contributions to these interrelated areas of scientific inquiry address the hope that the external openness (commercial liberalism) and the internal freedom of an economy (capitalist peace) pacify interstate as well as intrastate relations. I claim, despite the empirical support both theses have received, that they face considerable analytical hurdles. Commercial liberalism has, on a theoretical level, not yet moved much beyond the opportunity cost arguments that enlightenment philosophers first advanced more than 200 years ago. The capitalist peace research program similarly does not offer clear micro-level mechanisms explaining why the interactions between economic agents and political decisionmakers should be more peaceful in capitalist than in state-dominated economies. Drawing on the political economy literature, I argue that economic liberalism should distinguish between level- and change-effects of both globalization and capitalism and that thinking in analogies between domestic and interstate peace has prevented the field from making analytical headway. Both literatures will only profit from the advent of ‘big data’ in the case that the field addresses the theoretical challenges upfront.

Could climate change precipitate peace?

Growing interest in the social consequences of climate change has fueled speculation that global warming could lead to an increase in various forms of political violence. This article examines the effects of climate change on international conflict subsequent to the onset of European industrialization. Surprisingly, analysis at the system level suggests that global warming is associated with a reduction in interstate conflict. This naive relationship is suspect, however, as the increased consumption of carbon-based fuels is itself associated with changing patterns of politics and prosperity. In particular, economic development has been viewed as a cause of both climate change and interstate peace. Incorporating measures of development, democracy, cross-border trade, and international institutions reveals that systemic trends toward peace are actually best accounted for by the increase in average international income. The results imply that climate change, which poses a number of critical challenges for citizens and policymakers, need not be characterized as fundamentally a security issue, though climate change may have important security implications on the periphery of world politics. The analysis here also suggests that efforts to curb climate change should pay particular attention to encouraging clean development among middle-income states, as these countries are the most conflict prone. Ironically, stagnating economic development in middle-income states caused by efforts to combat climate change could actually realize fears of climate-induced warfare.

Regional Economic Institutions in Latin America: Politics, Profits, and Peace

Politics, profits, and peace are key drivers of regional economic integration in the Americas. Politics. Unilateral trade liberalization prior to signing a regional agreement, and presidential leadership in agreement making, increase the likelihood of integration success. Profits. Unilateral liberalization and early agreement compliance signal businesses to propel regional trade. Peace. Prior inter-state peace settlements facilitate and consolidate agreements. Key regional design feature. Automatic rules worked better than intergovernmental negotiation, sustained interpresidential engagement, or delegation to supranational organizations. Seven cases are examined. In all but one, trade was liberalized successfully. In NAFTA and MERCOSUR, trade also grew and interstate peace was fostered. In Central America and the Andean Community, trade grew for periods as long as a decade, but with significant occasional setbacks; regional economic integration also had little impact on strengthening peace. In 2008, within-region trade was about 50% of the worldwide total for NAFTA countries but between 8 and 17% of the trade of the total for southern South American, Central American, and Andean countries.

Beyond Kantian Liberalism

Although globalization has become one of the most salient issues in the study of international relations during the past few decades, its net effect on international conflict remains unexplored. I argue that although the manifold phenomena of globalization may conflict (i.e. produce both positive and negative influences), its overall consequences help foster a common peaceful disposition among national leaders who are then less likely to resort to arms in times of crisis. Based on a cross-sectional, time-series dyadic data analysis for 114 countries during the period from 1970 to 2001, this study reports that socio-economic and political globalization in its entirety generates a dampening effect on militarized interstate disputes. Even when common conflict-related control variables such as democracy, economic interdependence, joint membership in international organizations, and others are incorporated into the analysis, globalization emerges as the most powerful explanatory variable. Consequently, globalization when taken in its entirety represents an unambiguous force for interstate peace.

SECURING OUR FUTURE

As the meaning of security has expanded well beyond its simple conception of inter-state war and peace, domestic resilience now falls under its ambit. Events in Britain at the turn of the twenty-first century – such as the fuel strike, foot and mouth crisis and catastrophic flooding – highlighted these new imperatives. Jennifer Cole looks at what has been done to shore up the UK's institutional architecture for all-hazards response, and what the future might hold.

War and other insecurities in East Asia: what the security studies field does and does not tell us

Security studies of East Asia focus on questions of inter-state war and peace, the distribution of power in the region, and the ways regional institutions mitigate the role of relative power balances and alliance structures. Debate on these issues has become increasingly sophisticated and has evolved theoretically, a process to which The Pacific Review has contributed by providing an important outlet for discussion of specifically Asian issues and by fostering the discussion of regional institutions. The security studies debate on East Asia, however, remains centred on examination of a relatively limited range of independent variables and security threats. Although the field has been redefined to include consideration of so-called ‘non-traditional’ security issues, work on East Asia has often made the case for non-traditional security studies largely on normative grounds. Further, much of the actual organized violence that has claimed and threatened lives, in particular the region's extensive civil conflicts and state violence against civilians, remains outside the purview of mainstream security studies of the region.