Interrupted Time Series Studies Research Articles

Impact of the Diagnosis-Intervention Packet Payment Reform on Provider Behavior in China: A Controlled Interrupted Time Series Study.

China has developed a novel case-based payment method called the DiagnosisIntervention Packet (DIP) to regulate healthcare providers' behavior. G city, a metropolis in southeast China, has shifted its payment policy from fixed rate per admission to DIP under regional global budget since 2018. This study examined the immediate and trend changes in provider behavior after this payment reform. Discharge data in G city between 2016 and 2019 was used, covering more than 10 million inpatient cases in 320 hospitals. A counterfactual scenario was developed to assign insured and uninsured inpatients across the study period to specific DIP groups under consistent rules. Controlled interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses were performed, with uninsured inpatients as control. Outcomes included inpatient volume, average DIP weight (similar to case-mix index in Diagnosis-Related Groups), and two innovative indicators (average diagnostic weight and average treatment weight) to decompose the changes in DIP weight. Subgroup analyses were conducted for different hospital levels and 21 major disease categories. After the DIP reform, monthly trend of inpatient volume decreased (-1085.34, P=0.052), while monthly growth of average DIP weight increased (2.17, P=0.02). No significant changes in average diagnostic weight were observed. Monthly trend of average treatment weight increased (2.38, P=0.001) after the reform. Secondary and tertiary hospitals experienced insignificantly decreased inpatient volume and elevated average DIP weight, accompanied by negligible change in average diagnostic weight and significant increase in average treatment weight. Primary hospitals experienced reduced inpatient volume and stable average DIP weight, along with increase in average diagnostic weight and decrease in average treatment weight. By differentiated payments for severity, DIP induced hospitals to shift their focus from volume to weight of inpatients. Instead of diagnostic upcoding, hospitals responded to the DIP reform primarily by increasing treatment intensity. Primary hospitals may face financial risks under regional competition.

Abstract 4116558: Navigator-driven Recommendations for Palliative Care Consults for Patients with Heart Failure and High Predicted Mortality

Background: Palliative care (PC) engagement can improve quality of life, reduce hospital costs, and enhance symptom control for individuals with heart failure (HF). For certain HF patients, PC can address symptoms and improve quality of life. However, referrals to PC often occur late, delaying benefits. Hypothesis: We hypothesize that a standardized recommendation for inpatient PC consultation will increase PC consultation rates and improve 30-day readmission without an impact on 30-day mortality rates. Methods: This interrupted time series study focused on high-risk HF patients at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist. The cohort included patients in the Golden Hearts Program, which is a local program to identify HF patients at elevated risk for 30-day readmissions and to accelerate resources to support their transitions. Baseline data were from patients 5 months before September 1, 2023, and the intervention group were from patients 5 months afterward. A standardized message recommending inpatient PC consultation was sent to attending physicians for patients with ESCAPE scores ≥4. Recommendations were also discussed at multidisciplinary rounds with senior residents. The primary outcomes were inpatient palliative care consultation and discharge to Hospice. Secondary outcomes were 30-day readmissions and 30-day mortality. Outcome measures were assessed post-discharge using Chi-square and T-test analyses. Results: The baseline group had 203 patients; the intervention group had 213. Post-intervention, PC consultation rates decreased from 12.3% to 8% (p=0.19), Discharge to hospice decreased from 2% to 0.9% (p=0.05), 30-day mortality decreased (8.4% vs 7%, p=0.74), and 30-day readmission dropped from 23.6% to 15% (p=0.04). The average length of stay remained 5.7 days in both groups. Limitations included provider buy-in and a limited time period. Conclusion: Though the intervention aimed at targeted PC consult recommendations for advanced HF patients led to reduced 30-day readmissions, there was a not a statistically significant impact on palliative care consultation or mortality.

Morbidity among resettled refugees at arrival in Ontario, Canada (1994–2017): a controlled interrupted time series study examining the effect of the Immigration Refugee Protection Act, 2002

BackgroundImmigration inadmissibility on medical grounds is common among high-income countries. In Canada, the Immigrant and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) became law in 2002. With humanitarian protection as a priority, IRPA...

Investigation of reporting bias in interrupted time series (ITS) studies: a study protocol

Background Interrupted time-series (ITS) studies are commonly used to examine the effects of interventions targeted at populations. Suppression of ITS studies or results within these studies, known as reporting bias, has the potential to bias the evidence-base on a particular topic, with potential consequences for healthcare decision-making. Therefore, we aim to determine whether there is evidence of reporting bias among ITS studies. Methods We will conduct a search for published protocols of ITS studies and reports of their results in PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase up to December 31, 2022. We contact the authors of the ITS studies to seek information about their study, including submission status, data for unpublished results, and reasons for non-publication or non-reporting of certain outcomes. We will examine if there is evidence of publication bias by examining whether time-to-publication is influenced by the statistical significance of the study’s results for the primary research question using Cox proportional hazards regression. We will examine whether there is evidence of discrepancies in outcomes by comparing those specified in the protocols with those in the reports of results, and we will examine whether the statistical significance of an outcome’s result is associated with how completely that result is reported using multivariable logistic regression. Finally, we will examine discrepancies between protocols and reports of results in the methods by examining the data collection processes, model characteristics, and statistical analysis methods. Discrepancies will be summarized using descriptive statistics. Discussion These findings will inform systematic reviewers and policymakers about the extent of reporting biases and may inform the development of mechanisms to reduce such biases.

Examining the Potential Impact of Recreational Cannabis Legalization on Individuals Receiving Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: An Interrupted Time Series Study in Guelph, Ontario, Canada

Objective: The present research evaluated the impact of legalizing recreational cannabis among individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) who may already use cannabis at high rates. Method: Using an interrupted time series study design, we evaluated the potential impact of legalizing recreational cannabis among individuals seeking treatment for SUD within a hospital-based treatment setting in Guelph, Ontario. We examined 2,925 individuals who entered an inpatient SUD treatment program between April 2017 and December 2021. We performed segmented regression analyses using both the date of cannabis legalization and the date of edibles legalization as the interruption time point. We also performed stratified analyses to examine potential sex differences. Results: We found no significant changes in the frequency of cannabis use using either of the interruption time points. However, among the subsample who had used cannabis, there was evidence of increasing CUD severity post-legalization of edibles, as well as an overall decreasing trend in readiness to quit over time. Stratified analyses also suggested possible sex differences in frequency of cannabis use, CUD severity, and readiness to quit. Conclusions: Results point to some small but potentially important impacts of recreational cannabis legalization that may only continue with time. Nevertheless, there is a need to continue to monitor cannabis use trends over time to understand any potential lagged effects.

Antimicrobial stewardship program in one primary care hospital, a snapshot analysis

Abstract Antimicrobic resistance (AMR) continues to rise, whereas development of new agents to counter it has slowed. A heightened need to maintain the effectiveness of currently available agents exists. Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a significant cause of poor treatment outcomes and elevated healthcare and societal costs worldwide. At the beginning of 2024, we started a prospective, interventional, interrupted time-series study, based on Prospective Audit and Feedback in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and in the internal medicine ward of our hospital. The primary outcomes will be the difference in the antibiotic consumption, and the incidence of bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by multidrug-resistant (MDR) organisms. The secondary outcomes will include the hospital mortality rate, the mean length of stay and the antibiotic expense. We conducted a snapshot analysis of the first three months to assess the efficacy our program. In the first three months we registered a global reduction in antibiotic expense (almost by half in comparison of 2023 first quarter) and consumption, particularly in the use of carbapenems: (change in level, CL: -51,26 DDD/1000 PD,) and third- generation cephalosporins (CL: -6 DDD/1000 PD). We registered a reduction in the use of hydroalcoholic gel, probably due to the reducted perception after the waning of risk perception towards Covid-19, although no big difference was observed in BSI incidence due to MDR Gram-negative organisms (CL: +1,2 events/1000 PD). Albeit partial, once again these findings demonstrated that implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program, no matter the level of healthcare, is critical for fighting the AMR and to lessen the burden on Public Health; in particular our program induced a significant reduction in antibiotic consumption that lead to more funds at disposal to improve our clinical practice. Key messages • Once again our findings demonstrated that implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship, no matter the level of healthcare, is critical for fighting the AMR. • Our program induced a significant reduction in antibiotic consumption.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on initiation of antihypertensive drugs in Sweden: an interrupted time series study

ObjectivesAntihypertensives reduce the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. Restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic limited access to healthcare, which may have had a negative impact on drug prescribing. This study...

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal, neonatal and child health service utilisation, delivery and health outcomes in Gauteng province, South Africa: an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis.

Gauteng was one of the provinces in South Africa most hit by COVID-19. However, there has been no assessment of the pandemic's impact on essential maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) services in Gauteng, for planning against future emergencies. This study sought to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on essential MNCH service utilisation, delivery and health outcomes in Gauteng province. We employed a quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) study design, using the District Health Information System (DHIS) data set to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on eight key MNCH indicators between March 2019 to February 2021. Using Stata V.17.0 and 5% alpha, a segmented linear regression (ITS) model quantified the trends of the indicators before COVID-19 (March 2019 to February 2020) (β1), the immediate change in level due to the March 2020 lockdown (β2), the post-lockdown (March 2020 to February 2021) trend (β4) and the change in gradient from before to after the lockdown (β3). COVID-19 lockdown exerted a significant decline in primary healthcare headcount<5 years (n) (β2= -60 106.9 (95% CI, -116 710.4; -3503.3), p=0.039); and postnatal care visits within 6 days (rate) (β2=-8.2 (95% CI, -12.4; -4.1), p=0.001). Antenatal care first visits before 20 weeks (rate) declined during COVID-19 (β3=-0.4 (95% CI, -0.7; -0.1), p=0.013) compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. COVID-19 adverse effects on service delivery (measles second dose coverage and fully immunised<1 year) and health outcomes (facility deaths 0-6 days, maternal mortality ratio and pneumonia case fatality<1 year) were insignificant. While some indicators post-lockdown attempted to recover, others deteriorated. In Gauteng province, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted essential MNCH service utilisation, particularly during the March 2020 lockdown. The mechanism of MNCH service disruption by COVID-19 was induced by both supply and demand services. It is imperative to strike a balance between maintaining routine healthcare services and managing an outbreak.

Changes in Cannabis-Related Health Care Use in Alberta After Cannabis Legalization Between 2018 and 2022: A Population-Based Interrupted Time Series Study

Changes in Cannabis-Related Health Care Use in Alberta After Cannabis Legalization Between 2018 and 2022: A Population-Based Interrupted Time Series Study

Strategies to improve the implementation of preventive care in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundAction on smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in primary care is effective and cost-effective, but implementation is low. The aim was to examine the effectiveness of strategies to increase the implementation of preventive healthcare in primary care.MethodsCINAHL, CENTRAL, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Dissertations & Theses – Global, Embase, Europe PMC, MEDLINE and PsycINFO were searched from inception through 5 October 2023 with no date of publication or language limits. Randomised trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies and interrupted time series studies comparing implementation strategies (team changes; changes to the electronic patient registry; facilitated relay of information; continuous quality improvement; clinician education; clinical reminders; financial incentives or multicomponent interventions) to usual care were included. Two reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed bias with an adapted Cochrane risk of bias tool for Effective Practice and Organisation of Care reviews. Meta-analysis was conducted with random-effects models. Narrative synthesis was conducted where meta-analysis was not possible. Outcome measures included process and behavioural outcomes at the closest point to 12 months for each implementation strategy.ResultsEighty-five studies were included comprising of 4,210,946 participants from 3713 clusters in 71 cluster trials, 6748 participants in 5 randomised trials, 5,966,552 participants in 8 interrupted time series, and 176,061 participants in 1 controlled before after study. There was evidence that clinical reminders (OR 3.46; 95% CI 1.72–6.96; I2 = 89.4%), clinician education (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.46–2.46; I2 = 80.6%), facilitated relay of information (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.10–3.46, I2 = 88.2%), and multicomponent interventions (OR 3.10; 95% CI 1.60–5.99, I2 = 96.1%) increased processes of care. Multicomponent intervention results were robust to sensitivity analysis. There was no evidence that other implementation strategies affected processes of care or that any of the implementation strategies improved behavioural outcomes. No studies reported on interventions specifically designed for remote consultations. Limitations included high statistical heterogeneity and many studies did not account for clustering.ConclusionsMulticomponent interventions may be the most effective implementation strategy. There was no evidence that implementation interventions improved behavioural outcomes.Trial registrationPROSPERO CRD42022350912.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on telogen effluvium: a nationwide multicentre interrupted time series study.

There is ongoing debate regarding the association between telogen effluvium (TE) and COVID-19, as well as COVID-19 vaccines. To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination on the development of TE among patients visiting dermatology clinics in South Korea. Between 2017 and 2022, data regarding patients with TE and other types of hair loss were collected from 22 hospitals in South Korea. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted, dividing the time into periods before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as before and after the COVID-19 vaccination. There was a significant slope change in the percentage of cases of TE during the postpandemic period (slope change 0.011, 95% confidence interval 0.005-0.017, P < 0.001), but no significant changes were observed after vaccination. The percentage of patients with other types of hair loss was not associated with COVID-19 or vaccination. The retrospective nature of the study may have limited the ability to establish causation. This multicentre study provides insights into the epidemiology of TE, showing a significant increase in cases of TE following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there was no association between the occurrence of TE and COVID-19 vaccines.

Strengthening China’s National Essential Public Health Services Package for hypertension and diabetes care: protocol for an interrupted time series study with mixed-methods process evaluation and health economic evaluation

BackgroundDespite major primary health care (PHC) reforms in China with the 2009 launch of the National Essential Public Health Service Package, the country experiences many challenges in improving the management of non-communicable diseases in PHC facilities. “EMERALD” is a multifaceted implementation strategy to strengthen the management of hypertension and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in PHC facilities. The study aims to: (1) examine the effectiveness of EMERALD in improving hypertension and T2DM management; (2) evaluate the implementation of the interventions; and (3) use the study findings to model the long-term health economic impact of the interventions.MethodsThe EMERALD intervention components include: (1) empowerment for PHC providers through training and capacity building; (2) empowerment for patient communities through multi-media health education; and (3) empowerment for local health administrators through health data monitoring and strengthening governance of local PHC programs. An interrupted time series design will be used to determine the effectiveness of the interventions based on routinely collected health data extracted from local health information systems. The primary effectiveness outcome is the guideline-recommended treatment rates for people with hypertension and T2DM. Secondary effectiveness outcomes include hypertension and T2DM diagnosis and control rates, and enrolment and adherence rates to the recommended care processes in the National Essential Public Health Service Package. A mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted to evaluate the implementation of the interventions, including the reach of the target population, adequacy of adoption, level of implementation fidelity, and maintenance. Qualitative interviews with policy makers, health administrators, PHC providers, and patients with hypertension and/or T2DM will be conducted to further identify factors influencing the implementation. In addition, health economic modelling will be performed to explore the long-term incremental costs and benefits of the interventions.DiscussionThis study is expected to generate important evidence on the effectiveness, implementation, and health economic impact of complex PHC interventions to strengthen the primary care sector’s contribution to addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in China.Trial registrationThe study has been registered on Chinese Clinical Trial Registry at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ (Registration number ChiCTR2400082036, on March 19th 2024).

Fiscal austerity and municipal health spending: an interrupted time series study.

To analyze the impact of the fiscal austerity policy (PAF) on health spending in Brazilian municipalities, considering population size and source of funds. The interrupted time series method was used to analyze the effect of the PAF on total expenditure, resources transferred by the Federal Government, and own/state per capita resources allocated to health in the municipalities. The time series analyzed covered the period from 2010 to 2019, every six months. The first semester of 2015 was adopted as the start date of the intervention. The municipalities were grouped into small (up to 100,000 inhabitants), medium (101,000 to 400,000 inhabitants), and large (over 400,000 inhabitants). The data was obtained from the Sistema de Informações sobre Orçamentos Públicos em Saúde (Information System on Public Health Budget). The results for the national average of municipalities show that the PAF had a negative impact on the level of total expenditure and own/state resources allocated to health in the first half of 2015, without causing statically significant changes in the trends of any of the indicators analyzed in the period after 2015. Small municipalities saw a drop in total expenditure, while large municipalities saw a drop in own/state resources, and medium-sized municipalities saw a drop in both variables. There was no statistically significant drop in the volume of funds transferred by the Federal Government in the immediate aftermath of the implementation of the PAF in any of the municipal groups analyzed. In the medium-term, the PAF only had a negative impact on the large municipalities, which saw significant reductions in the trends of own/state resources and those transferred by the Union for health. In general, the impact of the PAF on health financing in municipalities was immediate and based on the decrease in own/state resources allocated to health. In large municipalities, however, the impact lasted from 2015 to 2019, mainly affecting health expenditure from federal funds.

New Evidence of the Impact of the National Drug Price Negotiation Policy on the Availability, Utilization, and Cost of Anticancer Medicines in China: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

The increasing global burden of cancer has become a significant challenge for public health. The Chinese government introduced the National Drug Price Negotiation (NDPN) policy with the goal of lowering the prices of innovative drugs and enhancing their accessibility. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the 2021 NDPN policy on the availability, utilization, and cost of anticancer medicines in China. Data was gathered from 1519hospitals between April 2021 and December 2022, with a focus on eight anticancer drugs affected by the 2021 NDPN policy. The availability, Defined Daily Doses (DDDs), and cost per Defined Daily Dose (DDDc) before and after the intervention were evaluated through interrupted time series analysis. The NDPN policy resulted in a substantial 5.10% increase in the availability of anticancer drugs (p < 0.001). Utilization also experienced a significant surge, with an immediate increase of 11,254.36 DDDs (p < 0.001) and a monthly increase of 1208.28 DDDs (p < 0.001) following policy implementation. The DDDc decreased by US$ 111.00 (p < 0.001) immediately after the policy. Disparities in regional drug utilization were evident, with higher usage in the eastern region. The 2021 NDPN policy has notably enhanced the availability and utilization of anticancer medications in China while reducing their cost, in line with the policy's objectives. However, continuous monitoring is essential to ensure sustained access and to tackle regional disparities in drug utilization.

Does environmental regulation matter for healthcare utilisation in China? An interrupted time series study.

In recent years, China has implemented a series of environmental regulation policies to improve air quality, but the health effects of these policy changes need to be accurately clarified and quantified. The objective of this study was to empirically examine the effects of levying construction dust pollution fees on healthcare utilisation in a southern city of China. The study used a unique administrative insurance claim dataset from the city's Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance scheme between 2013 and 2015. The sample included 69,961 enrolees. An interrupted time series design was employed to investigate whether and how the healthcare utilisation of enrolees changed after the policy change. The results showed that this environmental regulation policy did not affect the inpatient utilisation of enrolees but did negatively impact outpatient utilisation. In addition, outpatient utilisation of chronic disease coverage decreased for patients with chronic diseases, including diabetes and hypertension. This study provides evidence that enhancing environmental regulations helps reduce medical costs, which can benefit China and other developing countries to improve environmental quality and promote public health.

Decreases in purchases of energy, sodium, sugar, and saturated fat 3 years after implementation of the Chilean food labeling and marketing law: An interrupted time series analysis.

In 2016, Chile implemented a multiphase set of policies that mandated warning labels, restricted food marketing to children, and banned school sales of foods and beverages high in nutrients of concern ("high-in" foods). Chile's law, particularly the warning label component, set the precedent for a rapid global proliferation of similar policies. While our initial evaluation showed policy-linked decreases in purchases of high-in, a longer-term evaluation is needed, particularly as later phases of Chile's law included stricter nutrient thresholds and introduced a daytime ban on advertising of high-in foods for all audiences. The objective is to evaluate changes in purchases of energy, sugar, sodium, and saturated fat purchased after Phase 2 implementation of the Chilean policies. This interrupted time series study used longitudinal data on monthly food and beverage purchases from 2,844 Chilean households (138,391 household-months) from July 1, 2013 until June 25, 2019. Nutrition facts panel data from food and beverage packages were linked at the product level and reviewed by nutritionists. Products were considered "high-in" if they contained added sugar, sodium, or saturated fat and exceeded nutrient or calorie thresholds. Using correlated random-effects models and an interrupted time series design, we estimated the nutrient content of food and beverage purchases associated with Phase 1 and Phase 2 compared to a counterfactual scenario based on trends during a 36-month pre-policy timeframe. Compared to the counterfactual, we observed significant decreases in high-in purchases of foods and beverages during Phase 2, including a relative 36.8% reduction in sugar (-30.4 calories/capita/day, 95% CI -34.5, -26.3), a 23.0% relative reduction in energy (-51.6 calories/capita/day, 95% CI -60.7, -42.6), a 21.9% relative reduction in sodium (-85.8 mg/capita/day, 95% CI -105.0, -66.7), and a 15.7% relative reduction in saturated fat (-6.4 calories/capita/day, 95% CI -8.4, -4.3), while purchases of not-high-in foods and drinks increased. Reductions in sugar and energy purchases were driven by beverage purchases, whereas reductions in sodium and saturated fat were driven by foods. Compared to the counterfactual, changes in both high-in purchases and not high-in purchases observed in Phase 2 tended to be larger than changes observed in Phase 1. The pattern of changes in purchases was similar for households of lower versus higher socioeconomic status. A limitation of this study is that some results were sensitive to the use of shorter pre-policy time frames. Compared to a counterfactual based on a 36-month pre-policy timeframe, Chilean policies on food labeling, marketing, and school food sales led to declines in nutrients of concern during Phase 2 of implementation, particularly from foods and drinks high in nutrients of concern. These declines were sustained or even increased over phases of policy implementation.

Effects of transparent online open procurement on prices, volumes, and costs of medicines: an interrupted time series study in Ningxia, China.

To assess the effects of the transparent online open procurement arrangement on the prices, volumes, and costs of medicines in Ningxia, China. Data were extracted from the Ningxia pharmaceutical procurement platform, covering 16months of purchase orders (December 2019 to March 2021) prior to the implementation of the transparent online open procurement policy and 20months of purchase orders after the implementation of the policy (April 2021 to November 2022). Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the transparent online open procurement policy on the prices, volumes, and total costs of the purchase orders. After implementation of the transparent online open procurement policy, the average price of purchased medicines showed a declining trend by 0.012 Yuan per month, while the total volume of purchase orders declined at a rate by 1.741 million per month measured by the smallest formulation units and the total costs of the purchase orders decreased at a rate by 5.525 million Yuan per month. The transparent online open procurement policy resulted in reduced prices, lowered volumes, and lowered total costs of purchased orders of medicines.

Effect of indoor residual spraying on sandfly abundance and incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in India, 2016–22: an interrupted time-series analysis and modelling study

Efforts to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis in India mainly consist of early detection and treatment of cases and indoor residual spraying with insecticides to kill the phlebotomine sandfly Phlebotomus argentipes that transmits the causative Leishmania protozoa. In this modelling study, we aimed to estimate the effect of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on vector abundance and transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in India. In this time-series analysis and modelling study, we assessed the effect of IRS on vector abundance by using indoor vector-abundance data (from 2016 to 2022) and IRS quality-assurance data (from 2017-20) from 50 villages in eight endemic blocks in India where IRS was implemented programmatically. To assess a potential dose-response relation between insecticide concentrations and changes in sandfly abundance, we examined the correlation between site-level insecticide concentrations and the site-level data for monthly sandfly abundances. We used mathematical modelling to link vector data to visceral leishmaniasis case numbers from the national Kala-Azar Management Information System registry (2013-21), and to predict the effect of IRS on numbers of averted cases and deaths. IRS was estimated to reduce indoor sandfly abundance by 27% (95% CI 20-34). Concentrations of insecticides on walls were significantly-but weakly-associated with the degree of reduction in vector abundance, with a reduction of -0·0023 (95% CI -0·0040 to -0·0007) sandflies per mg/m2 insecticide (p=0·0057). Reported case numbers of visceral leishmaniasis were well explained by trends in vector abundance. Village-wide IRS in response to a newly detected case of visceral leishmaniasis was predicted to reduce disease incidence by 6-40% depending on the presumed reduction in vector abundance modelled. Indoor residual spraying has substantially reduced sandfly abundance in India, which has contributed to reductions in visceral leishmaniasis and related deaths. To prevent the re-emergence of visceral leishmaniasis as a public health problem, surveillance of transmission and sandfly abundance is warranted. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A multilayered infection control intervention on carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii acquisition: An interrupted time series

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) causes life-threating hospital-acquired. Due to a limited number of Intensive-Care-Unit (ICU) beds, these patients are often treated in high-dependency (HD) non-ICUs within internal-medicine wards (IMW) in Israel. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a multilayered infection-control intervention on CRAB infection rate in IMWs, especially in its HD non-ICUs with ongoing CRAB transmission. A quasi-experimental, before-and-after, interrupted time-series study with control outcomes. We conducted a multilayered intervention over 3.5years, which included 4 phases: (1) Pre intervention; (2) Interventionintroduction: introduced enhanced environment cleaning; (3) Intervention phase 1: introduced active surveillance; (4) Intervention phase 2: introduced CRAB-positive patient cohorting, in addition to previous ongoing measures taken. CRAB was isolated from 204 patients aged 69.8y/o±15.86y, 59.8% male, 34.3% had CRAB-positive clinical samples. Mean hospital length-of-stay was 30.5days, with a 30-day postdischarge mortality rate of 55.9%. Mean CRAB clinical cases decreased from 0.89 in preintervention to 0.11 at the end of phase 2, with a change in slope and level after the intervention of P=.02 (CI: -0.204to -0.040) and P=.004 (CI: -0.013 to -0.003), respectively. This intervention, including enhanced environment cleaning, active surveillance, and patient cohorting, successfully reduced CRAB acquisition in IMWs and their HD non-ICUs.

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on routine childhood immunizations coverage in Zambia.

There are growing concerns about the comeback of vaccine-preventable diseases. Epidemics exert shocks which affect other health performance indicators such as routine immunizations. Early model forecasts indicate decreased use of immunization services, which puts children at greater risk. Concerns about an increase in morbidity and mortality for illnesses other than COVID-19, particularly in children missing routine vaccinations, are of public health interest. In this study, we evaluate COVID-19 effects on the uptake of routine immunization in Zambia.This was an interrupted time series study. National data on routine immunization coverage between January 2017 and December 2022 were analyzed. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to quantify changes in immunization utilization. To determine if changes in the underlying patterns of utilization of immunization service were correlated with the commencement of COVID-19, seasonally adjusted segmented Poisson regression model was utilised.Utilization of health services was similar with historical levels prior to the first case of COVID-19. There was a significant drop in immunization coverage for measles dose two (RR, 0.59; 95% CI: 0.43-0.80). A decreased slope was observed in immunization coverage of Rotavirus dose one (RR, 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.98) and Rotavirus dose two (RR, 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). A growing slope was observed for Oral Poliovirus two (RR, 1.007; 95% CI: 1.004-1.011) and Oral Poliovirus three (RR, 1.007; 95% CI: 1.002-1011). We also observed a growing slope in BCG Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) (RR, 1.001; 95% CI: 1.000-1011) and Pentavalent one (RR, 1.00; 95% CI: 1.001-1008) and three (RR, 1.004; 95% CI: 1.001-1008).The COVID-19 pandemic has had a number of unintended consequences that have affected the use of immunization services. Ensuring continuity in the provision of health services, especially childhood immunization, during pandemics or epidemics is crucial. Therefore, Investing in robust healthcare infrastructure to withstand surges, training and retaining a skilled workforce capable of handling emergencies and routine services simultaneously is very cardinal to avoid vaccine-preventable diseases, causing long-term health effects especially child mortality.