Interprovincial Migration In Canada Research Articles

The demographic determinants of inter-provincial migration declines in Canada: A decomposition analysis

Abstract This article studies the link between observed demographic changes and Canadian inter-provincial migration declines. Alongside recent changes in age composition, educational attainment, marital trends, and immigration, Canadian internal migration has widely been in decline. In this context, our project investigates the demographic determinants of Canadian provincial migration and the correlation between Canada’s socio-demographic shifts and the decline of inter-provincial migration. To do so, our analysis consists of two identical multivariate logistic regressions and an econometric decomposition using the data of the 1991 and 2016 Canadian Census Public Use Microdata Files. The dependent variable is inter-provincial migration, and the focal independent variables are age, educational attainment, marital status, immigrant status, and province of residence five years ago. By investigating how these determinants are associated with migration, we develop a greater understanding of how demographics predict inter-provincial migration in Canada, and how these demographics have changed and affected the overall decline in inter-provincial migration. In a broad sense, we examine the continuity of contemporary demographic trends in their relation to Canadian macro-economic human capital distribution. Through our investigation, we conclude that while compositional changes have some impact, it is a shift in the effects of these changes that largely explains the decline in Canadian inter-provincial migration.

An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.

Francophone Intergroup Attitudes and Readiness for Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Though existing research helps account for readiness of migrants to move internationally, few social psychological studies have focused on readiness of native born citizens to move internally across regions of their own country. Francophones residing in Canada's bilingual belt comprised of Quebec, New Brunswick and Ontario rated their readiness to move internally to a French and English province compared to their readiness to migrate to the United States. Questionnaires were completed in French by three groups of undergraduates: Francophone Quebecers (n = 204), Acadians in New Brunswick (n = 227), and Franco-Ontarians (n = 227). Though readiness to emigrate to a French or English province was low across all groups, Franco-Ontarians were more willing to migrate out of Province and to the US than both Acadians and Francophone Quebecers. Predictors of readiness to migrate to Acadia (New Brunswick) or Quebec were: seeking better career prospects, perceptions that Francophones contribute to linguistic vitality, avoidance of linguistic tensions, and endorsement of integration-transformation toward Francophone migrants. Predictors of readiness to move to an English majority Province were: seeking better career prospects, English language use, and acceptance of Anglo-Canadians as migrants to own province. Predictors of readiness for emigration to the United States were very similar to those for internal migration to an English majority Province, confirming that factors accounting for internal and international migration share much in common. Results are discussed using ethnolinguistic vitality and the Interactive Acculturation Model with implications for harmony and social cohesion between Francophone and Anglophone communities within Canada's Bilingual Belt. Resume: Cette recherche porte sur les intentions de migration interprovinciale d'etudiants universitaires francophones originaires du Nouveau-Brunswick (Acadiens : N = 227), du Quebec (N = 204) et de l'Ontario (N = 227). Ces repondants francophones ont rempli des questionnaires en francais comprenant une serie d'echelles, de type Likert, qui ont servi a mesurer leur desir de migration interne vers une province francophone ou anglophone compare au desir d'emigration vers les Etats-Unis. Les resultats demontrent que bien que la volonte d'emigrer vers une autre province canadienne ou aux Etats-Unis etait faible chez les Acadiens et les Quebecois, elle etait plus soutenue chez les Franco-Ontariens dont l'identite bilingue etait plus forte que celle des Acadiens et Quebecois. Les predicteurs du desir de migrer vers le Quebec et l'Acadie au Nouveau-Brunswick etaient surtout pour s'assurer d'une meilleure carriere professionnelle, pour delaisser les tensions linguistiques dans la province d'origine et l'endossement de l'orientation d'acculturation integrationniste-transformation a l'egard des migrants francophones. Les predicteurs du desir de migrer vers les provinces anglophones et les Etats-Unis etaient semblables : pour s'assurer d'une meilleure carriere professionnelle, l'usage soutenu de l'anglais dans la vie quotidienne, et l'acceptation des migrants anglophones dans la province d'origine des repondants. La vitalite ethnolinguistique et le modele d'acculturation interactif contribuent a l'explication de ces resultats ayant des implications pour l'harmonie et la cohesion sociale des communautes francophones et anglophones de la «zone bilingue du Canada».

La mobilité interprovinciale de la main-d’oeuvre au Canada : le cas de l’Ontario, de la Nouvelle-Écosse et du Nouveau-Brunswick

This paper studies the migratory flows between Ontario and two Atlantic provinces of Canada, from 1960-61 to 1975-76. Search theory is used as the theoretical framework and leads to predictions as to the influence on interprovincial migratory flows of three economic variables: relative wages, employment opportunities, and unemployment insurance (UI). Proxies for these theoretical variables are used in an ordinary least squares regression based on pooled time series and cross-section data on interprovincial migration in Canada (Family Allowances' data base). The model performs poorly in explaining short term variations in the interprovincial migration rates, and the expected return migration from Ontario to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia due to UI changes in 1971 is not found. However, the model performs relatively well in explaining long term interprovincial migration flows and the 1970's reversal of the net migratory flows between Central Canada (Ontario) and the Atlantic provinces considered. Higher unemployment rates in Ontario, improved relative wages in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia as well as the UI revisions of 1971 explain a significant part of the observed change.

Une analyse log-linéaire des courants migratoires interprovinciaux : Canada, 1961-1983

"This article presents an in-depth analysis of spatial-temporal characteristics of interprovincial migration in Canada carried out with longitudinal data obtained from the family allowance file. The methodology used calls on the log-linear model underlying the notion of the contingency table. This model permits a simple representation of the observed data, with the aid of parameters typical of the many possible interactions between the variables in question (variables of origin, destination and period in the present case)." The relative influence of the selected variables on migration is first assessed. "Second, this influence is further specified with the aid of a detailed investigation of the parameters that are relative to the quasi-independence variance, that is to say, the variance where only the effect of interaction between the three variables is ignored. Together with the suggestion that the variables of origin and destination are not independent (a result that confirms the need to emphasize interregional streams in the study of migration), this investigation sets forth some conclusions about the temporal variations of interprovincial migration." (summary in ENG, SPA)

Policy-induced internal migration: An empirical investigation of the Canadian case

We investigate the influence of public policy on interprovincial migration in Canada using new aggregated migration data for 1974–1996, the longest period studied so far. We consider the consequences of regional variation in a variety of policies, and also investigate the effects of certain extraordinary events in Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. The results indicate that while the changing bias in the unemployment insurance system may have induced some people to move to the relatively high unemployment Atlantic region, the resulting flows are likely too small to have altered regional unemployment rates. In contrast, political events in Quebec in the 1970's and the closing of the cod fishery in 1992 appear to be associated with large changes in migration patterns.

Policy-Induced Internal Migration: An Empirical Investigation of the Canadian Case

We investigate the influence of public policy on interprovincial migration in Canada using new aggregated migration data for 1974-1996, the longest period studied so far. We consider the consequences of regional variation in a variety of policies, and also investigate the effects of certain extraordinary events in Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. The results indicate that while the changing bias in the unemployment insurance system may have induced some people to move to the relatively high unemployment Atlantic region, the resulting flows are likely too small to have altered regional unemployment rates. In contrast, political events in Quebec in the 1970's and the closing of the cod fishery in 1992 appear to be associated with large changes in migration patterns.

Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada

This paper addresses the topic of inter-provincial migration in terms of the basic question: ‘Who moves?’. Panel logit models of the probability that an individual changes his or her province of residence from one year to the next over the 1982–1995 period are estimated using tax-based longitudinal data. It is found that moving is (i) inversely related to the home province's population size, presumably reflecting local economic conditions and labour market scale effects, while language also plays an important role; (ii) more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas than those in larger cities; (iii) negatively related to age, marriage, and the presence of children for both men and women; (iv) positively related to the provincial unemployment rate, the individuals’ receipt of unemployment insurance (except Entry Men), having no market income (except for Entry Men and Entry Women), and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men); (v) (slightly) positively related to earnings levels (beyond the zero earnings point) for prime aged men, but not for others; and (vi) more or less stable over time, with men's rates declining slightly and women's holding steadier or rising slightly, indicating a divergence in trends along gender lines.

Income, Self-Selection, and Return and Onward Interprovincial Migration in Canada

"Estimated returns to migration based on comparison of individual migrants may be biased owing to self-selection in the migration process. Using data derived from the 1986 Canadian census, I will study the effects of expected wage differentials in determining the return or onward migration decision of nonnative adults aged 20 to 64 years. Evidence was found that return migrations were in the 'right' direction, as they are observed to respond to provincial economic variables (that is, average employment growth and income levels) in a rational manner. After accounting for self-selectivity, I found that...return migrants...are negatively selected, and experience lower income levels, following the return migration, than onward migrants would have, had they chosen the return migration option. This drop in expected wages decreases the propensity associated with making a return migration. Despite this drop in income, the large proportion selecting the return migration option suggests the importance of the province of birth in the mental map of nonnative migrants."

Selectivity Among Various Types of Inter-Provincial Migrants, Canada 1976-1981

This study examines inter-provincial migration in Canada from 1976 to 1981. Using dummy dependent-variable regression analysis and data from the individual file of the 1981 Canadian Census Public Use Sample Tape the author investigates which factors best differentiate return movers from primary and onward movers. The analysis reveals that the destination region and a composite measure of marital status and family size are best able to differentiate return moves from the other types of moves; education occupation and age are also significant factors affecting the type of move. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)

Where Have All the Old Folks Gone? Interprovincial Migration of the Elderly in Canada: 1981-1986

Changes in provincial age structures due to elderly and non-elderly interprovincial migration in Canada were examined for the 1981-86 migration interval. Although elderly and non-elderly migration patterns diverged non-elderly migration continued to be a better predictor of changes in provincial population age structures than did elderly migration. The rate of change in provincial elderly populations was found to be significantly correlated with net non-elderly migration rates. Data are from official sources. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)

Internal Migration and Fiscal Structure: An Econometric Study of the Determinants of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

This work is concerned with the empirical relevance of the relationship between interprovincial migration and fiscal structure in Canada. Recent trends in inter-provincial migration are first examined. Next a critical review of a previous study by Thomas J. Courchene is presented and a revised model using the same approach is outlined. Particular attention is paid to the problem of how best to use available aggregate data on fiscal structure in the context of a model of individual migration decisions. The completed model is estimated using tax data the estimates are discussed and some quantitative simulations are presented. (EXCERPT)

The efficiency of interprovincial migration in Canada, 1961–1978

This paper employs a programming model to analyze the impact of the efficiency of migration flows on regional income disparities in Canada. The traditional measure of efficiency of migration is shown to be inconsistent and an alternative measure has been developed. Occupations involving high skill and training requirements are, in general, found to have efficient migration patterns. The empirical findings of a positive correlation between the efficiency of migration and per capita income of homogeneous groups of workers between regions/sectors indicate that intersectoral and interoccupational income disparities within various regions in Canada can be attributable to inefficient migration patterns.

Self-Selection and Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Self-Selection and Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Implicit functional relationships between systematic effects in a general model of movement

In this paper some further remarks are formulated on a general systems model of movement developed by Alonso. In particular, implicit relations between systemic variables are derived, which results in the proportionality of all systems push and pull effects and the choice of a reference unit as numeraire. This results in a simplified reduced form equation. The approach is illustrated empirically using data on interprovincial migration in Canada.

Interprovincial Migration in Canada as a Human Capital Decision

This paper develops an "economic opportunities model" of interprovincial labor movements in Canada. Viewing migration as a decision to invest in human capital, we postulate that migration flows are directly related to net present values of the investment decisions. A regression equation derived from the theoretical model contains two independent variables--the expected value of earnings differentials and a distance variable. Cross-section regression results are reported for each of ten provinces, but statistical considerations led to grouping the data into four multiprovince regions. Despite their essential simplicity, the four equations yield highly significant results, accounting for about one-half to two thirds of the variation in interprovincial migration.