International Water Conflicts Research Articles

Policy effectiveness of water conflict management: A textual analysis of the Nansi Lake

Abstract Global warming and social and economic development have led to conflicts over water resources that have gradually become one of the most disruptive factors in the global political landscape. Resolving international water conflicts is of great significance for maintaining the peaceful development of countries (regions). This paper considers the Nansi Lake located on the provincial border of Jiangsu and Shandong in eastern China as an example. Based on the textual analysis, this paper analyzes the specific data of the historical conflict resolution of the Nansi Lake to study the effectiveness of the management policies of water conflict in the Nansi Lake, namely administrative law enforcement, administrative consultation, civil consultation, policy regulation, and engineering measures. Furthermore, this paper also makes the following optimization recommendations for the policy of water conflict management by considering the successful circumstances for the policies to be applied: strengthen the government's deterrence in administrative law enforcement to promote the development of policies; promote administrative consultation and equal dialogue and exchanges among parties; understand the positions of the different parties in the civil consultation and ensure their independence of cooperation and analysis; improve the ability of scientific decision-making and effective operation for water administration department; strengthen construction management, especially effective supervision.

Transboundary water interaction III: contest and compliance

This paper serves international water conflict resolution efforts by examining the ways that states contest hegemonic transboundary water arrangements. The conceptual framework of dynamic transboundary water interaction that it presents integrates theories about change and counter-hegemony to ascertain coercive, leverage, and liberating mechanisms through which contest and transformation of an arrangement occur. While the mechanisms can be active through sociopolitical processes either of compliance or of contest of the arrangement, most transboundary water interaction is found to contain elements of both. The role of power asymmetry is interpreted through classification of intervention strategies that seek to either influence or challenge the arrangements. Coexisting contest and compliance serve to explain in part the stasis on the Jordan and Ganges rivers (where the non-hegemons have in effect consented to the arrangement), as well as the changes on the Tigris and Mekong rivers, and even more rapid changes on the Amu Darya and Nile rivers (where the non-hegemons have confronted power asymmetry through influence and challenge). The framework also stresses how transboundary water events that may appear isolated are more accurately read within the many sociopolitical processes and arrangements they are shaped by. By clarifying the typically murky dynamics of interstate relations over transboundary waters, furthermore, the framework exposes a new suite of entry points for hydro-diplomatic initiatives.

Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water cooperation and conflict: Insights from new data

Hydro-political dependencies between countries are widely regarded as having important implications for international water cooperation and conflict. Quantitative ex-post empirical research on the subject so far uses very simple characterizations of international river geography to proxy for such dependencies, though. The authors developed a new geo-spatial dataset for water catchments worldwide. This dataset combines elevation models, flow accumulation approaches, hydrological data, and data on international boundaries to generate more precise and nuanced measures of hydro-political dependencies among riparian countries. The paper discusses these measurement concepts, illustrates how dependencies are distributed worldwide, and revisits three prominent quantitative studies on the issue to show how using improved data affects empirical findings. In contrast to a very popular presumption, upstream–downstream dependencies turn out to have a very small to insignificant effect on international water cooperation or conflict.

The Legal Response to International Water Scarcity and Water Conflicts: The UN Watercourses Convention and Beyond

The UN Watercourses Convention, adopted in May 1997, and ratified to date by six Parties, is a global framework agreement with the goal to “ensure the utilisation, development, conservation, management and protection of international watercourses” and the promotion of their optimal and sustainable utilisation for present and future generations. In line with this, the Convention requires that “an international watercourse shall be used and developed by watercourse States with a view to attaining optimal and sustainable utilisation thereof and benefits therefrom, taking into account the interests of the watercourse States concerned, consistent with adequate protection of the watercourse”. This paper addresses the question whether the UN Watercourses Convention facilitates achievement of these aims, specifically in the context of conflicts-of-uses and water scarcity.

Water Conflict Risk due to Water Resource Availability and Unequal Distribution

The aim of this research is to support the assessment of countries’ risks of water conflicts in the immediate future, considering their vulnerability to changes in water availability. The risk of international water conflicts in the 5 years ahead of the year of analysis was estimated based on current water availability and its unequal distribution. Countries were classified by their vulnerability to reductions in water availability. In these vulnerability groups, the links of water availability (TRIP discharges per capita) and its unequal distribution with the risk of water conflicts were explored. The Gini Coefficient was employed to measure the inequalities. Inequalities showed statistically significant positive Logit links with the risk of water conflicts. The greatest risk for volatile conflicts exists for the Asian, South American and African countries, having the lowest water availability and the lowest economic capacity. Increasing inequalities increases the likelihood of water conflicts, suggesting enhancing access to water, to lower the likelihood of water conflicts. South American and Congo River basin countries are only at risk of low-level water conflicts, but have higher risks of conflict escalation, when inequality increases. The risk of North American and Asian water conflicts were modeled well, except in western Asia. The water conflict estimation provided only 11.9 % under-estimations and an accuracy of 54.1 %, globally. Inequalities in water can indicate the risk of water conflicts in the above regions. However, the risk of water conflicts between countries with higher economic capacity in the European continent showed no link with inequality. This study will facilitate the estimation of the risk of water conflicts resulting from climate change.

International Water Cooperation and Conflict: A New Event Dataset

Many qualitative case studies provide valuable insights into the determinants of international water cooperation and conflict. In recent years, several researchers have moved on to large-N research in order to find out to what extent some of the case-specific results are empirically relevant across larger sets of international river basins. One major challenge in this large-N work concerns data. This paper describes a new event dataset on international river basin cooperation and conflict worldwide for the time-period 1997-2007. Water related events between riparian countries are characterized on a scale ranging from -6 (most conflictive) to 6 (most cooperative). We provide descriptive statistics for the new data and compare them to the only other publicly available dataset on international river basin events, the Transboundary Freshwater Disputes Dataset (TFDD). Our data confirm that cooperation outweighs conflict; there are no reported offical interactions in many of the world’s river basins; most documented interactions concern issues of water quantity and infrastructure; and cooperation and conflict are not mutually exclusive, but often occur in conjunction. However, the comparison also indicates substantial differences that stem from different sources for newsmedia information, different search strings for selecting newsmedia items, differences in substantive definitions, and differences in coding rules and procedures. Future research on the causes of international water cooperation and conflict is likely to produce more robust results now being equipped with two independently generated complementary datasets.

Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia

We engage in a critical assessment of the neo-malthusian claim that climatic changes can be an important source of international tensions, in the extreme even militarized interstate disputes. The most likely scenario is conflict over water allocation in international catchments shared by poorer, less democratic, and politically less stable countries, governed by weak international water management institutions, and exposed to severe climatic changes. The Syr Darya corresponds quite well to all these characteristics. If the neo-malthusian specter of conflict over water is empirically relevant, we should see signs of this in the Syr Darya. The riparian countries of the Aral Sea basin have experienced international disputes over water allocation ever since the USSR collapsed and, with it, existing water management institutions and funding. The worst such dispute concerns the Syr Darya, one of the two largest rivers in Central Asia. Based on hydrological data and other information we find that the only existing international water management institution in the Syr Darya has failed. Based on a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya, we then examine whether, in the absence of an effective international water allocation mechanism, climate change is likely to make existing international tensions over water allocation worse. We find that climate change-induced shifts in river runoff, to which the Uzbek part of the Syr Darya catchment is particularly vulnerable, and which could contribute to a deterioration of already strained Kyrgyz–Uzbek relations, are likely to set in only in the medium to long term. This leaves some time for the riparian countries to set up an effective international framework for water allocation and prevention of climate-induced geohazards. By implication, our findings suggest that a climate change-induced militarized interstate dispute over water resources in Central Asia is unlikely.

Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict?

Although the subject remains contested, some have speculated that climate change could jeopardize international security. Climate change is likely to alter the runoff of many rivers due to changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, climate change will likely increase the demand for river water, due to more frequent droughts and greater stress being placed on other sources of water. The resulting strain on transboundary rivers could contribute to international tensions and increase the risk of military conflict. This study nevertheless notes that the propensity for conflicts over water to escalate depends on whether the river in question is governed by a formal agreement. More specifically, the article argues that the ability of river treaties to adapt to the increase in water stress resulting from climate change will depend on their institutional design. It focuses on four specific institutional features: provisions for joint monitoring, conflict resolution, treaty enforcement, and the delegation of authority to intergovernmental organizations. Treaties that contain more of these features are expected to better manage conflicts caused by water stress. This expectation is tested by analyzing historical data on water availability and the occurrence of militarized conflict between signatories of river treaties, 1950–2000. The empirical results reveal that water scarcity does increase the risk of military conflict, but that this risk is offset by institutionalized agreements. These results provide evidence, albeit indirect, that the presence of international institutions can be an important means of adapting to the security consequences of climate change by playing an intervening role between climate change and international conflict.

2007 SWS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, Water, Wetlands, and Wildlife Resolving Conflicts and Restoring Habitat., June 17–22, 2007 SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA

2007 SWS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, Water, Wetlands, and Wildlife Resolving Conflicts and Restoring Habitat., June 17–22, 2007 SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA

Oil and Water: The Contrasting Anatomies of Resource Conflicts

AbstractIt is often said that while many of the twentieth century's wars were fought over oil, those of the twenty-first will be fought over water. This paper seeks to counter this argument, as well as the assumption implicit in it that the two resources engender, or will engender, broadly similar types of conflict. Specifically it argues 1) that within the context of the contemporary global capitalism, oil and water are marked by starkly divergent political economies; 2) that the two resources thus have starkly contrasting impacts upon patterns of state formation; 3) that these factors together militate against the development of violent international water conflicts; and 4) that notwithstanding the above, water is already a significant cause of local violence in many parts of the global South.

International Water Resources Allocation and Conflicts: The Case of the Euphrates and Tigris

This paper presents a linear programming model that allocates the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers to irrigation, urban consumption, and on-stream hydroelectricity production in the three riparian countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq), by maximizing the aggregate net benefits from water uses while accounting for water-conveyance costs. The model represents, in network form, the system made of the two rivers and their various consumption, supply, and transshipment nodes, and accounts for evaporation and return flows. The constraints include water-conservation balances and maximum and minimum water consumption. The model is used to assess the economic consequences of various cooperation and noncooperation strategies that may be adopted by the riparian countries. Cooperative game-theory concepts (core and Shapley value) are used to identify stable water allocations, under which all three countries find it beneficial to cooperate. The results suggest that an allocation of the total benefits exists, under various scenarios of future energy prices and agricultural productivities, that makes this global cooperation attractive to all countries. Various research extensions are outlined.

Geography of international water conflict and cooperation: Data sets and applications

The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database provides a framework for quantitative, global‐scale explorations of the relationship between freshwater resources and international cooperation and conflict. Projects were designed to test common theories linking freshwater resources to cooperation and conflict, in particular within the context of geography and environmental security. The projects, which follow in sequence, consider three main hypotheses on the likelihood and intensity of water resource disputes. To test these hypotheses, a unique set of tools was created that links water‐specific event data with a geographic information system (GIS) that meshes biophysical, political, and socioeconomic data sets at the river basin and other scales. There are three linked data sets: (1) an event data set documenting historical water relations, including a methodology for identifying and classifying events by their intensity of cooperation/conflict; (2) a GIS data set of countries and international basins, both current and historical; and (3) a spatial data set of biophysical, socioeconomic, and political variables, linked to the GIS. This paper describes the hypotheses, the above tools created to test them, and a methodological framework for utilizing the linked event and GIS data sets, providing three projects as examples: (1) indicators of international basins at risk of political tensions, (2) relationships between internal and international hydropolitics in three geographic regions, and (3) hydroclimatological variables and international water relations.

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.

Resolution of international water conflicts: from the US Southwest to the Euphrates River basin states

Environmental security models predict that natural resource scarcities, in particular freshwater, can increase the probability of conflict within and between countries. This is an especially critical problem on internationally shared rivers in the arid Middle East. Riparians in the arid US west have long relied on interstate water compacts to manage their interstate waters effectively and to resolve their conflicts peacefully. This paper identifies a hitherto ignored research path. It lays out the rationale for systematically analysing the strategies used in the US compacts in order to derive conflict-mitigating approaches that could be adapted to the Euphrates River basin states.

The geography of water conflict and cooperation: internal pressures and international manifestations

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies – the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa – utilizing ‘event data’. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.

Transboundary freshwater dispute resolution: theory, practice, and annotated references

This book provides a comprehensive review of the relevant literature on managing conflicts stemming from the quantity and quality problems of water around the world. So far, few comprehensive and interdisciplinary analyses of such international surface water conflicts have been produced.The literature surveyed indicates that while in many areas there has been extensive research and analysis, there continues to be a need for more studies on the specific situations that lead to conflicts over water and other environment resources. Lateral learning, an attempt to understand the similarities between all conflicts over natural resources, will lend itself to future applications in predicting and preventing these conflicts.A survey of internati9nal watersheds provides some bibliographical and general data collected from over 200 transboundary watersheds. A subset of case studies of the exhaustive list of international watersheds is examined in greater detain. A related effort is a compilation and analysis of relevant water treaties, and the rationale for their implementations.

Water Resources and Indicators of Conflict

Analysis of current economic and environmental trends reveals increasing competition over access to and use of freshwater resources at the same time that population growth, economic development, and potential climate change are adding stress to those resources. Given these trends, it is hardly surprising that in the policy literature and the popular press the issues of water and conflict are being raised together with increasing frequency. The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD) project at Oregon State University delineates 261 international river basins. Professionals concerned with security-related issues have an interest in being able to identify which of those basins may be prone to conflict over water resources, from both a perspective of intra-state and inter-state instability and conflict. Having such knowledge allows for the possibility of “preventive diplomacy,” whereby diplomatic intervention prevents the escalation of disputes over shared water resources into violent conflict. Identification of basins prone to water conflict requires a framework that incorporates a wide array of physical, social, economic, and political variables, the implications of these variables at different spatial and temporal scales, and the linkages across scales. This paper proposes a methodology for defining potential indicators of international water conflict and portraying these indicators spatially within a Geographic Information System. Indicators will be defined across multiple scales in a parallel analysis of global and basin attributes. While indicators should be viewed with a healthy skepticism, they still provide value when defined through an effective analytical framework that takes into account the availability and appropriateness of relevant data and information sources.

Criteria for equitable allocations: the heart of international water conflict

AbstractAt the heart of most international water conflicts is the question of ‘equitable’ allocations, criteria for which are vague and often contradictory. However, application of an equitable water‐sharing agreement along the volatile waterways of the globe is a prerequisite to hydropolitical stability. This article explores the question of equity measures for water‐sharing agreements in the context of global hydropolitics and is divided into three parts. The Introduction provides a brief summary of the general principles of equitable allocations. The second part of the paper describes the practice of water resources allocations as exemplified in the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database ‐ a computerized database of 149 treaties relating to international water resources compiled at Oregon State University; 49 of these treaties delineate specific water allocations. The third and fourth parts of the article contrast the principles and practice of water equity. It is noticeable how rarely the general principles are explicitly invoked, particularly the extreme principles of absolute sovereignty or absolute riverain integrity. Most treaties favor existing uses, and/or guarantees to downstream riparians. It is interesting that, while many international water negotiations begin with differing legal interpretations of rights, they often shift to a needs‐based criteria for water allocations. Mostly, one is struck by the creativity of the negotiators in addressing specific language to each very specific local setting and concerns.

International Water Conflict Resolution: Lessons from Comparative Analysis

This paper offers lessons learned for the process of resolving international freshwater conflicts from the combined experience of treaty negotiations, process case studies, and a series of forums on international waters. The first section describes the current state of international water institutions and law, and discusses weaknesses in each structure. The second section describes recent attempts at the resolution of international water disputes as exemplified in 140 transboundary water treaties and 14 process case studies collected on the University of Alabama Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database, and at the three Forums of the International Water Resources Association (IWRA) Committee on International Waters. Lessons learned are then described in the third section for the three stages of negotiation. During the prenegotiation stage, lessons are to be found for involvement in advance of conflict, and indicators suggested both for possible water conflict and for the type and intensity of a pending dispute. During the negotiation stage, common obstacles to successful negotiations are suggested and the lessons of introducing multi-resource linkages to encourage positive sum solutions are offered. For the implementation stage, often ignored parameters are described-physical, economic and political-as are aspects unique to water resources that can encourage cooperation.

International Water Dispute Resolution: The Middle East Multilateral Working Group on Water Resources

ABSTRACT With over 200 international rivers in the world, and with an ever-decreasing per capita availability of water the successful resolution of international water conflicts will be an increasingly crucial step in allowing for efficient water resources development. This article examines the process by which one of the most contentious water disputes in history—that between the riparians of the Jordan River—is being resolved The article has two goals; the first is to provide a detailed description of an ongoing process of water conflict resolution for which little information currently exists, and which may provide a model for future negotiations. Toward this end, the background leading up to the Multilateral Working Group on Water Resources is described, as are the Group's accomplishments since its inception in conjunction with Middle East peace negotiations in 1992. Observations are made about where the process of conflict resolution has been successful, and where it has been less so. The second goal...